Articles | Volume 19, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1985-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1985-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Feb 2019
Research article |
| 14 Feb 2019
| 14 Feb 2019
Evaluating solar radiation forecast uncertainty
Minttu Tuononen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Ewan J. O'Connor
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Victoria A. Sinclair
Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Physics,
Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
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Cited
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- Comparison of Satellite-Based and Ångström–Prescott Estimated Global Horizontal Irradiance under Different Cloud Cover Conditions in South African Locations B. Mabasa et al. 10.3390/solar2030021
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- Model predictive control of distributed energy resources in residential buildings considering forecast uncertainties F. Langner et al. 10.1016/j.enbuild.2023.113753
- Evaluation of surface shortwave downward radiation forecasts by the numerical weather prediction model AROME M. Magnaldo et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-1091-2024
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- Impact of tropical convective conditions on solar irradiance forecasting based on cloud motion vectors A. Roy et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac94e6
- CloudnetPy: A Python package for processing cloud remote sensing data S. Tukiainen et al. 10.21105/joss.02123
- Detection of supercooled liquid water containing clouds with ceilometers: development and evaluation of deterministic and data-driven retrievals A. Guyot et al. 10.5194/amt-15-3663-2022
- Long-term aerosol particle depolarization ratio measurements with HALO Photonics Doppler lidar V. Le et al. 10.5194/amt-17-921-2024
- Towards the profiling of the atmospheric boundary layer at European scale—introducing the COST Action PROBE D. Cimini et al. 10.1007/s42865-020-00003-8
- A method to assess the cloud-aerosol transition zone from ceilometer measurements J. Ruiz de Morales et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107623
- EMD-based ultraviolet radiation prediction for sport events recommendation with environmental constraint P. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.ins.2024.121592
- Life cycle of stratocumulus clouds over 1 year at the coast of the Atacama Desert J. Schween et al. 10.5194/acp-22-12241-2022
- Solar parking lot management: An IoT platform for smart charging EV fleets, using real-time data and production forecasts A. Varone et al. 10.1016/j.rser.2023.113845
- The use of satellite and surface observations for initializing clouds in the HARMONIE NWP model E. Gregow et al. 10.1002/met.1965
- How Efficient Is Model-to-Model Data Assimilation at Mitigating Atmospheric Forcing Errors in a Regional Ocean Model? G. Shapiro & M. Salim 10.3390/jmse11050935
- Cloud Characteristics and Their Effects on Solar Irradiance According to the ICON Model, CLOUDNET and BSRN Observations J. Shuvalova et al. 10.3390/atmos14121769
- On the Land-Sea Contrast in the Surface Solar Radiation (SSR) in the Baltic Region A. Lindfors et al. 10.3390/rs12213509
- Evaluating neural network models in site-specific solar PV forecasting using numerical weather prediction data and weather observations C. Brester et al. 10.1016/j.renene.2023.02.130
- Comparison of irradiance forecasts from operational NWP model and satellite‐based estimates over Fennoscandia V. Kallio‐Myers et al. 10.1002/met.2051
- Evaluating atmospheric icing forecasts with ground‐based ceilometer profiles K. Hämäläinen et al. 10.1002/met.1964
24 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Observed and modelled cloud cover up to 6 km height at Station Nord in the high Arctic S. Gryning et al. 10.1002/joc.6894
- Comparison of Satellite-Based and Ångström–Prescott Estimated Global Horizontal Irradiance under Different Cloud Cover Conditions in South African Locations B. Mabasa et al. 10.3390/solar2030021
- Identifying cloud droplets beyond lidar attenuation from vertically pointing cloud radar observations using artificial neural networks W. Schimmel et al. 10.5194/amt-15-5343-2022
- Supercooled liquid water cloud classification using lidar backscatter peak properties L. Whitehead et al. 10.5194/amt-17-5765-2024
- Model predictive control of distributed energy resources in residential buildings considering forecast uncertainties F. Langner et al. 10.1016/j.enbuild.2023.113753
- Evaluation of surface shortwave downward radiation forecasts by the numerical weather prediction model AROME M. Magnaldo et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-1091-2024
- Multi-Layer Cloud Motion Vector Forecasting for Solar Energy Applications P. Kosmopoulos et al. 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122144
- Long-term sub-micrometer aerosol chemical composition in the boreal forest: inter- and intra-annual variability L. Heikkinen et al. 10.5194/acp-20-3151-2020
- Impact of tropical convective conditions on solar irradiance forecasting based on cloud motion vectors A. Roy et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac94e6
- CloudnetPy: A Python package for processing cloud remote sensing data S. Tukiainen et al. 10.21105/joss.02123
- Detection of supercooled liquid water containing clouds with ceilometers: development and evaluation of deterministic and data-driven retrievals A. Guyot et al. 10.5194/amt-15-3663-2022
- Long-term aerosol particle depolarization ratio measurements with HALO Photonics Doppler lidar V. Le et al. 10.5194/amt-17-921-2024
- Towards the profiling of the atmospheric boundary layer at European scale—introducing the COST Action PROBE D. Cimini et al. 10.1007/s42865-020-00003-8
- A method to assess the cloud-aerosol transition zone from ceilometer measurements J. Ruiz de Morales et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107623
- EMD-based ultraviolet radiation prediction for sport events recommendation with environmental constraint P. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.ins.2024.121592
- Life cycle of stratocumulus clouds over 1 year at the coast of the Atacama Desert J. Schween et al. 10.5194/acp-22-12241-2022
- Solar parking lot management: An IoT platform for smart charging EV fleets, using real-time data and production forecasts A. Varone et al. 10.1016/j.rser.2023.113845
- The use of satellite and surface observations for initializing clouds in the HARMONIE NWP model E. Gregow et al. 10.1002/met.1965
- How Efficient Is Model-to-Model Data Assimilation at Mitigating Atmospheric Forcing Errors in a Regional Ocean Model? G. Shapiro & M. Salim 10.3390/jmse11050935
- Cloud Characteristics and Their Effects on Solar Irradiance According to the ICON Model, CLOUDNET and BSRN Observations J. Shuvalova et al. 10.3390/atmos14121769
- On the Land-Sea Contrast in the Surface Solar Radiation (SSR) in the Baltic Region A. Lindfors et al. 10.3390/rs12213509
- Evaluating neural network models in site-specific solar PV forecasting using numerical weather prediction data and weather observations C. Brester et al. 10.1016/j.renene.2023.02.130
- Comparison of irradiance forecasts from operational NWP model and satellite‐based estimates over Fennoscandia V. Kallio‐Myers et al. 10.1002/met.2051
- Evaluating atmospheric icing forecasts with ground‐based ceilometer profiles K. Hämäläinen et al. 10.1002/met.1964
Latest update: 14 Dec 2024
Short summary
Many applications require accurate forecasts of the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface, such as solar energy and UV radiation forecasts. This also means that cloud must be correctly forecast. We investigated the skill of these forecasts over Helsinki, Finland, using cloud and solar radiation observations. We found that there were errors in the model radiation forecast even when the clouds were correctly forecast, which we attribute to incorrect representation of the cloud properties.
Many applications require accurate forecasts of the amount of solar radiation reaching the...
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