Articles | Volume 19, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1985-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1985-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Feb 2019
Research article |
| 14 Feb 2019
| 14 Feb 2019
Evaluating solar radiation forecast uncertainty
Minttu Tuononen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Ewan J. O'Connor
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Victoria A. Sinclair
Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Physics,
Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
Viewed
Total article views: 5,882 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 13 Nov 2018)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,403 | 1,350 | 129 | 5,882 | 164 | 212 |
- HTML: 4,403
- PDF: 1,350
- XML: 129
- Total: 5,882
- BibTeX: 164
- EndNote: 212
Total article views: 5,232 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 14 Feb 2019)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,004 | 1,105 | 123 | 5,232 | 153 | 199 |
- HTML: 4,004
- PDF: 1,105
- XML: 123
- Total: 5,232
- BibTeX: 153
- EndNote: 199
Total article views: 650 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 13 Nov 2018)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 399 | 245 | 6 | 650 | 11 | 13 |
- HTML: 399
- PDF: 245
- XML: 6
- Total: 650
- BibTeX: 11
- EndNote: 13
Viewed (geographical distribution)
Total article views: 5,882 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 5,400 with geography defined
and 482 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 5,232 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 4,779 with geography defined
and 453 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 650 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 621 with geography defined
and 29 with unknown origin.
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
Cited
33 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Observed and modelled cloud cover up to 6 km height at Station Nord in the high Arctic S. Gryning et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6894
- Comparison of Satellite-Based and Ångström–Prescott Estimated Global Horizontal Irradiance under Different Cloud Cover Conditions in South African Locations B. Mabasa et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/solar2030021
- Identifying cloud droplets beyond lidar attenuation from vertically pointing cloud radar observations using artificial neural networks W. Schimmel et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5343-2022
- Four low-level cloud regimes revealed by latent space analysis and their impact on solar energy variability D. Chatterjee et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/3049-4753/ae4e30
- Supercooled liquid water cloud classification using lidar backscatter peak properties L. Whitehead et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5765-2024
- Model predictive control of distributed energy resources in residential buildings considering forecast uncertainties F. Langner et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2023.113753
- Evaluation of surface shortwave downward radiation forecasts by the numerical weather prediction model AROME M. Magnaldo et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1091-2024
- Solar energy potential on East Coast Peninsular Malaysia and Johor using Hargreaves–Samani model for PV generation Q. Hafizi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42108-025-00343-1
- Enhancing solar irradiance prediction precision: A stacked ensemble learning-based correction paradigm B. Tian et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100306
- Multi-Layer Cloud Motion Vector Forecasting for Solar Energy Applications P. Kosmopoulos et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122144
- Occupant-centric stochastic many-objective home energy management with PV uncertainty under Sweden’s tariff scheme P. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2026.121789
- Long-term sub-micrometer aerosol chemical composition in the boreal forest: inter- and intra-annual variability L. Heikkinen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3151-2020
- Impact of tropical convective conditions on solar irradiance forecasting based on cloud motion vectors A. Roy et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac94e6
- SolarImputer: Conditional diffusion-model based spatio-temporal solar irradiance imputation model S. Shan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2026.125822
- CloudnetPy: A Python package for processing cloud remote sensing data S. Tukiainen et al. https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.02123
- Detection of supercooled liquid water containing clouds with ceilometers: development and evaluation of deterministic and data-driven retrievals A. Guyot et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3663-2022
- Long-term aerosol particle depolarization ratio measurements with HALO Photonics Doppler lidar V. Le et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-921-2024
- Towards the profiling of the atmospheric boundary layer at European scale—introducing the COST Action PROBE D. Cimini et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42865-020-00003-8
- A method to assess the cloud-aerosol transition zone from ceilometer measurements J. Ruiz de Morales et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107623
- EMD-based ultraviolet radiation prediction for sport events recommendation with environmental constraint P. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2024.121592
- Life cycle of stratocumulus clouds over 1 year at the coast of the Atacama Desert J. Schween et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12241-2022
- Solar parking lot management: An IoT platform for smart charging EV fleets, using real-time data and production forecasts A. Varone et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2023.113845
- The use of satellite and surface observations for initializing clouds in the HARMONIE NWP model E. Gregow et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1965
- Discriminating between “drizzle or rain” and sea salt aerosols in Cloudnet for measurements over the Barbados Cloud Observatory J. Roschke et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-487-2025
- How Efficient Is Model-to-Model Data Assimilation at Mitigating Atmospheric Forcing Errors in a Regional Ocean Model? G. Shapiro & M. Salim https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11050935
- A physics-informed machine learning method for short-term solar radiation forecast with satellite-derived cloud optical depth W. Peng et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.127284
- Cloud Characteristics and Their Effects on Solar Irradiance According to the ICON Model, CLOUDNET and BSRN Observations J. Shuvalova et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14121769
- Control strategies for agricultural photovoltaic systems: Balancing electricity generation and agricultural yield for sustainable development B. Tian et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2025.113270
- On the Land-Sea Contrast in the Surface Solar Radiation (SSR) in the Baltic Region A. Lindfors et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12213509
- Evaluating neural network models in site-specific solar PV forecasting using numerical weather prediction data and weather observations C. Brester et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2023.02.130
- Comparison of irradiance forecasts from operational NWP model and satellite‐based estimates over Fennoscandia V. Kallio‐Myers et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2051
- Non-contact piezoelectric–electromagnetic hybrid generator for hydrological monitoring systems L. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1039/D4SE01494D
- Evaluating atmospheric icing forecasts with ground‐based ceilometer profiles K. Hämäläinen et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1964
33 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Observed and modelled cloud cover up to 6 km height at Station Nord in the high Arctic S. Gryning et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6894
- Comparison of Satellite-Based and Ångström–Prescott Estimated Global Horizontal Irradiance under Different Cloud Cover Conditions in South African Locations B. Mabasa et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/solar2030021
- Identifying cloud droplets beyond lidar attenuation from vertically pointing cloud radar observations using artificial neural networks W. Schimmel et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5343-2022
- Four low-level cloud regimes revealed by latent space analysis and their impact on solar energy variability D. Chatterjee et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/3049-4753/ae4e30
- Supercooled liquid water cloud classification using lidar backscatter peak properties L. Whitehead et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5765-2024
- Model predictive control of distributed energy resources in residential buildings considering forecast uncertainties F. Langner et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2023.113753
- Evaluation of surface shortwave downward radiation forecasts by the numerical weather prediction model AROME M. Magnaldo et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1091-2024
- Solar energy potential on East Coast Peninsular Malaysia and Johor using Hargreaves–Samani model for PV generation Q. Hafizi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42108-025-00343-1
- Enhancing solar irradiance prediction precision: A stacked ensemble learning-based correction paradigm B. Tian et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100306
- Multi-Layer Cloud Motion Vector Forecasting for Solar Energy Applications P. Kosmopoulos et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122144
- Occupant-centric stochastic many-objective home energy management with PV uncertainty under Sweden’s tariff scheme P. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2026.121789
- Long-term sub-micrometer aerosol chemical composition in the boreal forest: inter- and intra-annual variability L. Heikkinen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3151-2020
- Impact of tropical convective conditions on solar irradiance forecasting based on cloud motion vectors A. Roy et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac94e6
- SolarImputer: Conditional diffusion-model based spatio-temporal solar irradiance imputation model S. Shan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2026.125822
- CloudnetPy: A Python package for processing cloud remote sensing data S. Tukiainen et al. https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.02123
- Detection of supercooled liquid water containing clouds with ceilometers: development and evaluation of deterministic and data-driven retrievals A. Guyot et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3663-2022
- Long-term aerosol particle depolarization ratio measurements with HALO Photonics Doppler lidar V. Le et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-921-2024
- Towards the profiling of the atmospheric boundary layer at European scale—introducing the COST Action PROBE D. Cimini et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42865-020-00003-8
- A method to assess the cloud-aerosol transition zone from ceilometer measurements J. Ruiz de Morales et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107623
- EMD-based ultraviolet radiation prediction for sport events recommendation with environmental constraint P. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2024.121592
- Life cycle of stratocumulus clouds over 1 year at the coast of the Atacama Desert J. Schween et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12241-2022
- Solar parking lot management: An IoT platform for smart charging EV fleets, using real-time data and production forecasts A. Varone et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2023.113845
- The use of satellite and surface observations for initializing clouds in the HARMONIE NWP model E. Gregow et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1965
- Discriminating between “drizzle or rain” and sea salt aerosols in Cloudnet for measurements over the Barbados Cloud Observatory J. Roschke et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-487-2025
- How Efficient Is Model-to-Model Data Assimilation at Mitigating Atmospheric Forcing Errors in a Regional Ocean Model? G. Shapiro & M. Salim https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11050935
- A physics-informed machine learning method for short-term solar radiation forecast with satellite-derived cloud optical depth W. Peng et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.127284
- Cloud Characteristics and Their Effects on Solar Irradiance According to the ICON Model, CLOUDNET and BSRN Observations J. Shuvalova et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14121769
- Control strategies for agricultural photovoltaic systems: Balancing electricity generation and agricultural yield for sustainable development B. Tian et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2025.113270
- On the Land-Sea Contrast in the Surface Solar Radiation (SSR) in the Baltic Region A. Lindfors et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12213509
- Evaluating neural network models in site-specific solar PV forecasting using numerical weather prediction data and weather observations C. Brester et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2023.02.130
- Comparison of irradiance forecasts from operational NWP model and satellite‐based estimates over Fennoscandia V. Kallio‐Myers et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2051
- Non-contact piezoelectric–electromagnetic hybrid generator for hydrological monitoring systems L. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1039/D4SE01494D
- Evaluating atmospheric icing forecasts with ground‐based ceilometer profiles K. Hämäläinen et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1964
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 23 Jun 2026
Short summary
Many applications require accurate forecasts of the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface, such as solar energy and UV radiation forecasts. This also means that cloud must be correctly forecast. We investigated the skill of these forecasts over Helsinki, Finland, using cloud and solar radiation observations. We found that there were errors in the model radiation forecast even when the clouds were correctly forecast, which we attribute to incorrect representation of the cloud properties.
Many applications require accurate forecasts of the amount of solar radiation reaching the...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint