Articles | Volume 17, issue 17
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10795-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10795-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Sep 2017
Research article |
| 14 Sep 2017
Regional temperature change potentials for short-lived climate forcers based on radiative forcing from multiple models
Borgar Aamaas
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, PB 1129 Blindern,
0318 Oslo, Norway
Terje K. Berntsen
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, PB 1129 Blindern,
0318 Oslo, Norway
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Jan S. Fuglestvedt
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, PB 1129 Blindern,
0318 Oslo, Norway
Keith P. Shine
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB,
UK
William J. Collins
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB,
UK
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David S. Stevenson, Alcide Zhao, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Simone Tilmes, Guang Zeng, Lee T. Murray, William J. Collins, Paul T. Griffiths, Sungbo Shim, Larry W. Horowitz, Lori T. Sentman, and Louisa Emmons
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Computational limits mean that we cannot run our most comprehensive climate models for all applications of interest. In such cases, reduced complexity models (RCMs) are used. Here, researchers working on 15 different models present the first systematic community effort to evaluate and compare RCMs: the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). Our research ensures that users of RCMs can more easily evaluate the strengths, weaknesses and limitations of their tools.
Robert J. Allen, Steven Turnock, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Ulrike Lohmann, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Martine Michou, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Toshihiko Takemura, Michael Schulz, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Louisa Emmons, Larry Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Twan van Noije, Tommi Bergman, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Prodromos Zanis, Ina Tegen, Daniel M. Westervelt, Philippe Le Sager, Peter Good, Sungbo Shim, Fiona O'Connor, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Makoto Deushi, Lori T. Sentman, Jasmin G. John, Shinichiro Fujimori, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9641–9663, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, 2020
Christopher J. Smith, Ryan J. Kramer, Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, William Collins, Adriana Sima, Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Seiji Yukimoto, Jason Cole, David Paynter, Hideo Shiogama, Fiona M. O'Connor, Eddy Robertson, Andy Wiltshire, Timothy Andrews, Cécile Hannay, Ron Miller, Larissa Nazarenko, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Stephanie Fiedler, Anna Lewinschal, Chloe Mackallah, Martin Dix, Robert Pincus, and Piers M. Forster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9591–9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, 2020
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The spread in effective radiative forcing for both CO2 and aerosols is narrower in the latest CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) generation than in CMIP5. For the case of CO2 it is likely that model radiation parameterisations have improved. Tropospheric and stratospheric radiative adjustments to the forcing behave differently for different forcing agents, and there is still significant diversity in how clouds respond to forcings, particularly for total anthropogenic forcing.
Moa K. Sporre, Sara M. Blichner, Roland Schrödner, Inger H. H. Karset, Terje K. Berntsen, Twan van Noije, Tommi Bergman, Declan O'Donnell, and Risto Makkonen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8953–8973, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8953-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8953-2020, 2020
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We investigate how emissions and parameters in current
SOA parameterisations in three ESMs affect both the resulting SOA in the models and the impact this has on climate through the direct and indirect aerosol effects. The SOA changes induce very different responses in the models, especially in terms of the indirect aerosol effect. This introduces uncertainties in ESM estimates of SOA climate impact through feedbacks in a warming climate and through anthropogenic land use change.
Nicolas Bellouin, Will Davies, Keith P. Shine, Johannes Quaas, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Lindsay Lee, Leighton Regayre, Guy Brasseur, Natalia Sudarchikova, Idir Bouarar, Olivier Boucher, and Gunnar Myhre
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1649–1677, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1649-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1649-2020, 2020
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Quantifying the imbalance in the Earth's energy budget caused by human activities is important to understand and predict climate changes. This study presents new estimates of the imbalance caused by changes in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, and particles of pollution. Over the period 2003–2017, the overall imbalance has been positive, indicating that the climate system has gained energy and will warm further.
Jonathan Elsey, Marc D. Coleman, Tom D. Gardiner, Kaah P. Menang, and Keith P. Shine
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 2335–2361, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-2335-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-2335-2020, 2020
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Water vapour is an important component in trying to understand the flows of energy between the Sun and Earth, since it is opaque to radiation emitted by both the surface and the Sun. In this paper, we study how it absorbs sunlight by way of its
continuum, a property which is poorly understood and with few measurements. Our results indicate that this continuum absorption may be more significant than previously thought, potentially impacting satellite observations and climate studies.
Maria Sand, Terje K. Berntsen, Annica M. L. Ekman, Hans-Christen Hansson, and Anna Lewinschal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3079–3089, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3079-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3079-2020, 2020
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There has been a growing interest in reducing emissions of soot particles to slow global warming and improve air quality. However, estimating the effect of reduced emissions is complex, as soot particles absorb solar radiation and influence heating rates, clouds, and humidity and can influence climate far outside their emission region. Here we investigate the impact of soot emitted in four major emissions areas, using different emissions rates, to see whether location and magnitude matter.
Borgar Aamaas, Terje Koren Berntsen, and Bjørn Hallvard Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 15235–15245, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15235-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15235-2019, 2019
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Cutting short-lived pollutants can help keep cool the climate – but only if we are clever. We investigate how regional temperatures may change in response to different packages of air quality measures. One package consists of mitigation measures that mainly target emissions that are known to result in a cooler climate, while in the other, emissions are cut as much as technically possible in response to air quality concerns. We estimate the different contributions from various sectors and region.
Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Bjørn H. Samset, Kari Alterskjær, Timothy Andrews, Olivier Boucher, Gregory Faluvegi, Dagmar Fläschner, Piers M. Forster, Matthew Kasoar, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Dirk Olivié, Thomas B. Richardson, Dilshad Shawki, Drew Shindell, Keith P. Shine, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12887–12899, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12887-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12887-2019, 2019
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Different greenhouse gases (e.g. CO2) and aerosols (e.g. black carbon) impact the Earth’s water cycle differently. Here we investigate how various gases and particles impact atmospheric water vapour and its lifetime, i.e., the average number of days that water vapour stays in the atmosphere after evaporation and before precipitation. We find that this lifetime could increase substantially by the end of this century, indicating that important changes in precipitation patterns are excepted.
Christoph Heinze, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Colin Jones, Yves Balkanski, William Collins, Thierry Fichefet, Shuang Gao, Alex Hall, Detelina Ivanova, Wolfgang Knorr, Reto Knutti, Alexander Löw, Michael Ponater, Martin G. Schultz, Michael Schulz, Pier Siebesma, Joao Teixeira, George Tselioudis, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 379–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, 2019
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Earth system models for producing climate projections under given forcings include additional processes and feedbacks that traditional physical climate models do not consider. We present an overview of climate feedbacks for key Earth system components and discuss the evaluation of these feedbacks. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research.
Kaarle Juhana Kupiainen, Borgar Aamaas, Mikko Savolahti, Niko Karvosenoja, and Ville-Veikko Paunu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7743–7757, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7743-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7743-2019, 2019
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We estimate global and Arctic temperature impacts of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from Finland, using different climate metrics. This is an example of how the climate impact of emissions from small countries and sources can be evaluated, which is challenging with climate models. We find that CO2 emissions have the most significant climate impact, which increases with longer time horizons. In the short term, emissions of CH4 and black carbon are also important.
Moa K. Sporre, Sara M. Blichner, Inger H. H. Karset, Risto Makkonen, and Terje K. Berntsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 4763–4782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4763-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4763-2019, 2019
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In this study, an Earth system model has been used to investigate climate feedbacks associated with increasing BVOC emissions due to higher CO2 concentrations and temperatures. Higher BVOC emissions associated with a changed climate are found to induce an important negative climate feedback through increased aerosol formation and resulting changes in cloud properties. This feedback is found to have the potential to offset about 13 % of the radiative forcing associated with a doubling of CO2.
Anna Lewinschal, Annica M. L. Ekman, Hans-Christen Hansson, Maria Sand, Terje K. Berntsen, and Joakim Langner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2385–2403, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2385-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2385-2019, 2019
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We use a global climate model to study how anthropogenic emissions of short-lived atmospheric particles in different parts of the world influence the global temperature distribution. We find that the global mean temperature change per unit emission is similar for all emission regions, and the largest temperature response is found in the Arctic no matter where the emissions occur. However, for European emissions, the temperature change per unit emission is found to depend on emission strength.
Kjetil S. Aas, Léo Martin, Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Julia Boike, Hanna Lee, Terje K. Berntsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 13, 591–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, 2019
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Many permafrost landscapes contain large amounts of excess ground ice, which gives rise to small-scale elevation differences. This results in lateral fluxes of snow, water, and heat, which we investigate and show how it can be accounted for in large-scale models. Using a novel model technique which can account for these differences, we are able to model both the current state of permafrost and how these landscapes change as permafrost thaws, in a way that could not previously be achieved.
Arlene M. Fiore, Emily V. Fischer, George P. Milly, Shubha Pandey Deolal, Oliver Wild, Daniel A. Jaffe, Johannes Staehelin, Olivia E. Clifton, Dan Bergmann, William Collins, Frank Dentener, Ruth M. Doherty, Bryan N. Duncan, Bernd Fischer, Stefan Gilge, Peter G. Hess, Larry W. Horowitz, Alexandru Lupu, Ian A. MacKenzie, Rokjin Park, Ludwig Ries, Michael G. Sanderson, Martin G. Schultz, Drew T. Shindell, Martin Steinbacher, David S. Stevenson, Sophie Szopa, Christoph Zellweger, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15345–15361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15345-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15345-2018, 2018
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We demonstrate a proof-of-concept approach for applying northern midlatitude mountaintop peroxy acetyl nitrate (PAN) measurements and a multi-model ensemble during April to constrain the influence of continental-scale anthropogenic precursor emissions on PAN. Our findings imply a role for carefully coordinated multi-model ensembles in helping identify observations for discriminating among widely varying (and poorly constrained) model responses of atmospheric constituents to changes in emissions.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Terje Berntsen, Magne Aldrin, Marit Holden, and Gunnar Myhre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 879–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-879-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-879-2018, 2018
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A key question in climate science is how the global mean surface temperature responds to changes in greenhouse gases. This dependency is quantified by the climate sensitivity, which is determined by the complex feedbacks in the climate system. In this study observations of past climate change are used to estimate this sensitivity. Our estimate is consistent with values for the equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by complex climate models but sensitive to the use of uncertain input data.
Inger Helene Hafsahl Karset, Terje Koren Berntsen, Trude Storelvmo, Kari Alterskjær, Alf Grini, Dirk Olivié, Alf Kirkevåg, Øyvind Seland, Trond Iversen, and Michael Schulz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7669–7690, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7669-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7669-2018, 2018
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This study highlights the role of oxidants in modeling of the preindustrial-to-present-day aerosol indirect effects. We argue that the aerosol precursor gases should be exposed to oxidants of its era to get a more correct representation of secondary aerosol formation. Our global model simulations show that the total aerosol indirect effect changes from −1.32 to −1.07 W m−2 when the precursor gases in the preindustrial simulation are exposed to preindustrial instead of present-day oxidants.
Maria Sand, Bjørn H. Samset, Yves Balkanski, Susanne Bauer, Nicolas Bellouin, Terje K. Berntsen, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Thomas Diehl, Richard Easter, Steven J. Ghan, Trond Iversen, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-François Lamarque, Guangxing Lin, Xiaohong Liu, Gan Luo, Gunnar Myhre, Twan van Noije, Joyce E. Penner, Michael Schulz, Øyvind Seland, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Fangqun Yu, Kai Zhang, and Hua Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12197–12218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12197-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12197-2017, 2017
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The role of aerosols in the changing polar climate is not well understood and the aerosols are poorly constrained in the models. In this study we have compared output from 16 different aerosol models with available observations at both poles. We show that the model median is representative of the observations, but the model spread is large. The Arctic direct aerosol radiative effect over the industrial area is positive during spring due to black carbon and negative during summer due to sulfate.
Chris Huntingford, Hui Yang, Anna Harper, Peter M. Cox, Nicola Gedney, Eleanor J. Burke, Jason A. Lowe, Garry Hayman, William J. Collins, Stephen M. Smith, and Edward Comyn-Platt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 617–626, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017, 2017
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Recent UNFCCC climate meetings have placed much emphasis on constraining global warming to remain below 2 °C. The 2015 Paris meeting went further and gave an aspiration to fulfil a 1.5 °C threshold. We provide a flexible set of algebraic global temperature profiles that stabilise to either target. This will potentially allow the climate research community to estimate local climatic implications for these temperature profiles, along with emissions trajectories to fulfil them.
Marianne T. Lund, Borgar Aamaas, Terje Berntsen, Lisa Bock, Ulrike Burkhardt, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, and Keith P. Shine
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 547–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-547-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-547-2017, 2017
Marianne T. Lund, Terje K. Berntsen, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6003–6022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6003-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6003-2017, 2017
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This study investigates possibilities for improving the representation of black carbon (BC) distribution in a global atmospheric chemistry-transport model by exploring uncertainties in key processes controlling the removal of aerosols from the atmosphere. Our results provide an increased understanding of the processes contributing to uncertainties in the BC abundance and climate impact and underline the importance of more observations and experimental data further constrain models.
Thomas Gasser, Glen P. Peters, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, William J. Collins, Drew T. Shindell, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 235–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-235-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-235-2017, 2017
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Emission metrics such as GWP or GTP are used to put non-CO2 species on a
CO2-equivalentscale. In the fifth IPCC report the metrics are inconsistent, as the climate–carbon feedback is included only for CO2 but not for non-CO2 species. Here, we simulate a new impulse response function for the feedback, and we use it to correct the metrics. For instance, 1 g of CH4 is equivalent to 31 g of CO2 (instead of 28 g) following the corrected GWP100 metric. It is 34 g if other factors are also updated.
Borgar Aamaas, Terje K. Berntsen, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, and Glen P. Peters
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-25, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-25, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Gunnar Myhre, Wenche Aas, Ribu Cherian, William Collins, Greg Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Piers Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Zbigniew Klimont, Marianne T. Lund, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Dirk Olivié, Michael Prather, Johannes Quaas, Bjørn H. Samset, Jordan L. Schnell, Michael Schulz, Drew Shindell, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Svetlana Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2709–2720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, 2017
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Over the past decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990–2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The global mean radiative forcing is more strongly positive than reported in IPCC AR5.
William J. Collins, Jean-François Lamarque, Michael Schulz, Olivier Boucher, Veronika Eyring, Michaela I. Hegglin, Amanda Maycock, Gunnar Myhre, Michael Prather, Drew Shindell, and Steven J. Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 585–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, 2017
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We have designed a set of climate model experiments called the Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). These are designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases in the climate models that are used to simulate past and future climate. We hope that many climate modelling centres will choose to run these experiments to help understand the contribution of aerosols and chemistry to climate change.
Daniel Mitchell, Krishna AchutaRao, Myles Allen, Ingo Bethke, Urs Beyerle, Andrew Ciavarella, Piers M. Forster, Jan Fuglestvedt, Nathan Gillett, Karsten Haustein, William Ingram, Trond Iversen, Viatcheslav Kharin, Nicholas Klingaman, Neil Massey, Erich Fischer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, John Scinocca, Øyvind Seland, Hideo Shiogama, Emily Shuckburgh, Sarah Sparrow, Dáithí Stone, Peter Uhe, David Wallom, Michael Wehner, and Rashyd Zaaboul
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 571–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, 2017
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This paper provides an experimental design to assess impacts of a world that is 1.5 °C warmer than at pre-industrial levels. The design is a new way to approach impacts from the climate community, and aims to answer questions related to the recent Paris Agreement. In particular the paper provides a method for studying extreme events under relatively high mitigation scenarios.
Christopher P. Webber, Helen F. Dacre, William J. Collins, and Giacomo Masato
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 867–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-867-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-867-2017, 2017
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The influence of synoptic meteorology on UK PM10 concentration ([PM110]) is analysed. ERA-Interim reanalysis data are used to detect upper-tropospheric wave breaking that explains much of the UK winter synoptic meteorological variability. Wave breaking is shown to positively impact UK [PM10], with a persistent Ω block feature resulting in the greatest probability of exceeding a hazardous UK [PM10]. The meteorological dynamics of UK PM10 exceedances are better understood following this study.
Nicolas Bellouin, Laura Baker, Øivind Hodnebrog, Dirk Olivié, Ribu Cherian, Claire Macintosh, Bjørn Samset, Anna Esteve, Borgar Aamaas, Johannes Quaas, and Gunnar Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13885–13910, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13885-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13885-2016, 2016
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This study uses global climate models to quantify how strongly man-made emissions of selected pollutants modify the energy budget of the Earth. The pollutants studied interact directly and indirectly with sunlight and terrestrial radiation and remain a relatively short time in the atmosphere, leading to regional and seasonal variations in their impacts. This new data set is useful to compare the potential climate impacts of different pollutants in support of policies to reduce climate change.
Raquel A. Silva, J. Jason West, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell, William J. Collins, Stig Dalsoren, Greg Faluvegi, Gerd Folberth, Larry W. Horowitz, Tatsuya Nagashima, Vaishali Naik, Steven T. Rumbold, Kengo Sudo, Toshihiko Takemura, Daniel Bergmann, Philip Cameron-Smith, Irene Cionni, Ruth M. Doherty, Veronika Eyring, Beatrice Josse, Ian A. MacKenzie, David Plummer, Mattia Righi, David S. Stevenson, Sarah Strode, Sophie Szopa, and Guang Zengast
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9847–9862, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016, 2016
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Using ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models for the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, we quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution in 2030, 2050 and 2100, relative to 2000 concentrations. We also estimate the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period.
Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell, Nicolas Bellouin, William J. Collins, Greg Faluvegi, and Kostas Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9785–9804, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9785-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9785-2016, 2016
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Computer models are our primary tool to investigate how fossil-fuel emissions are affecting the climate. Here, we used three different climate models to see how they simulate the response to removing sulfur dioxide emissions from China. We found that the models disagreed substantially on how large the climate effect is from the emissions in this region. This range of outcomes is concerning if scientists or policy makers have to rely on any one model when performing their own studies.
Borgar Aamaas, Terje K. Berntsen, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Keith P. Shine, and Nicolas Bellouin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7451–7468, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7451-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7451-2016, 2016
Kjetil S. Aas, Thorben Dunse, Emily Collier, Thomas V. Schuler, Terje K. Berntsen, Jack Kohler, and Bartłomiej Luks
The Cryosphere, 10, 1089–1104, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1089-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1089-2016, 2016
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A high-resolution, coupled atmosphere--climatic mass balance (CMB) model is applied to Svalbard for the period 2003 to 2013. The mean CMB during this period is negative but displays large spatial and temporal variations. Comparison with observations on different scales shows a good overall model performance except for one particular glacier, where wind strongly affects the spatial patterns of CMB. The model also shows considerable sensitivity to model resolution, especially on local scales.
A. Stohl, B. Aamaas, M. Amann, L. H. Baker, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, O. Boucher, R. Cherian, W. Collins, N. Daskalakis, M. Dusinska, S. Eckhardt, J. S. Fuglestvedt, M. Harju, C. Heyes, Ø. Hodnebrog, J. Hao, U. Im, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, K. S. Law, M. T. Lund, R. Maas, C. R. MacIntosh, G. Myhre, S. Myriokefalitakis, D. Olivié, J. Quaas, B. Quennehen, J.-C. Raut, S. T. Rumbold, B. H. Samset, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, K. P. Shine, R. B. Skeie, S. Wang, K. E. Yttri, and T. Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10529–10566, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015, 2015
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This paper presents a summary of the findings of the ECLIPSE EU project. The project has investigated the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived climate pollutants (especially methane, ozone, aerosols) and has designed a global mitigation strategy that maximizes co-benefits between air quality and climate policy. Transient climate model simulations allowed quantifying the impacts on temperature (e.g., reduction in global warming by 0.22K for the decade 2041-2050) and precipitation.
E. A. Irvine and K. P. Shine
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 555–568, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-555-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-555-2015, 2015
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Aviation impacts on climate via contrails, which are often clearly visible in the sky. Contrail formation requires particular cold/moist atmospheric conditions at aircraft cruise altitudes. Climate change is expected to change these conditions. Using simulations from several climate models we conclude that, by 2100, the probability of contrail formation could decrease from 11 to 7%, mostly due to changing conditions in the tropics. There is no consensus on the likely change in mid-latitudes.
K. P. Shine, R. P. Allan, W. J. Collins, and J. S. Fuglestvedt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 525–540, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-525-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-525-2015, 2015
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Emissions due to human activity impact on rainfall. This impact depends on the properties of the gases or particles that are emitted. This paper uses improved understanding of relevant processes to produce a new measure, called the Global Precipitation-change Potential, which allows a direct comparison of the effect of different emissions on global-mean rainfall. Carbon dioxide, in the years following its emission, is shown to be less effective than methane emissions at causing rainfall change.
S. Eckhardt, B. Quennehen, D. J. L. Olivié, T. K. Berntsen, R. Cherian, J. H. Christensen, W. Collins, S. Crepinsek, N. Daskalakis, M. Flanner, A. Herber, C. Heyes, Ø. Hodnebrog, L. Huang, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, J. Langner, K. S. Law, M. T. Lund, R. Mahmood, A. Massling, S. Myriokefalitakis, I. E. Nielsen, J. K. Nøjgaard, J. Quaas, P. K. Quinn, J.-C. Raut, S. T. Rumbold, M. Schulz, S. Sharma, R. B. Skeie, H. Skov, T. Uttal, K. von Salzen, and A. Stohl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9413–9433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9413-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9413-2015, 2015
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The concentrations of sulfate, black carbon and other aerosols in the Arctic are characterized by high values in late winter and spring (so-called Arctic Haze) and low values in summer. Models have long been struggling to capture this seasonality. In this study, we evaluate sulfate and BC concentrations from different updated models and emissions against a comprehensive pan-Arctic measurement data set. We find that the models improved but still struggle to get the maximum concentrations.
L. H. Baker, W. J. Collins, D. J. L. Olivié, R. Cherian, Ø. Hodnebrog, G. Myhre, and J. Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8201–8216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8201-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8201-2015, 2015
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We investigate the impact of removing land-based anthropogenic emissions of three aerosol species, using four fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Removing SO2 emissions leads to warming globally, strongest in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and an increase in NH precipitation. Organic and black carbon (OC, BC) have a weaker impact, and less certainty on the response; OC (BC) removal shows a weak overall warming (cooling), and both show small increases in precipitation globally.
C. R. MacIntosh, K. P. Shine, and W. J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3957–3969, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3957-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3957-2015, 2015
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This study examines quantitatively the impact of methodological choices, in particular of averaging of multi-model ensembles, on climate metrics for ozone precursors.
Estimates of the standard deviation of radiative forcing (RF), global warming and temperature potential (GWP, GTP) from ensemble-mean input fields generally overestimate the true value.
The multi-model average fields are appropriate for calculating mean metrics, but are not a reliable method for calculating the uncertainty.
B. H. Samset, G. Myhre, A. Herber, Y. Kondo, S.-M. Li, N. Moteki, M. Koike, N. Oshima, J. P. Schwarz, Y. Balkanski, S. E. Bauer, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, H. Bian, M. Chin, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, T. Iversen, A. Kirkevåg, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Lin, X. Liu, J. E. Penner, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, R. B. Skeie, P. Stier, T. Takemura, K. Tsigaridis, and K. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12465–12477, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12465-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12465-2014, 2014
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Far from black carbon (BC) emission sources, present climate models are unable to reproduce flight measurements. By comparing recent models with data, we find that the atmospheric lifetime of BC may be overestimated in models. By adjusting modeled BC concentrations to measurements in remote regions - over oceans and at high altitudes - we arrive at a reduced estimate for BC radiative forcing over the industrial era.
K. Tsigaridis, N. Daskalakis, M. Kanakidou, P. J. Adams, P. Artaxo, R. Bahadur, Y. Balkanski, S. E. Bauer, N. Bellouin, A. Benedetti, T. Bergman, T. K. Berntsen, J. P. Beukes, H. Bian, K. S. Carslaw, M. Chin, G. Curci, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, S. L. Gong, A. Hodzic, C. R. Hoyle, T. Iversen, S. Jathar, J. L. Jimenez, J. W. Kaiser, A. Kirkevåg, D. Koch, H. Kokkola, Y. H Lee, G. Lin, X. Liu, G. Luo, X. Ma, G. W. Mann, N. Mihalopoulos, J.-J. Morcrette, J.-F. Müller, G. Myhre, S. Myriokefalitakis, N. L. Ng, D. O'Donnell, J. E. Penner, L. Pozzoli, K. J. Pringle, L. M. Russell, M. Schulz, J. Sciare, Ø. Seland, D. T. Shindell, S. Sillman, R. B. Skeie, D. Spracklen, T. Stavrakou, S. D. Steenrod, T. Takemura, P. Tiitta, S. Tilmes, H. Tost, T. van Noije, P. G. van Zyl, K. von Salzen, F. Yu, Z. Wang, Z. Wang, R. A. Zaveri, H. Zhang, K. Zhang, Q. Zhang, and X. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10845–10895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10845-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10845-2014, 2014
R. B. Skeie, T. Berntsen, M. Aldrin, M. Holden, and G. Myhre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 139–175, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-139-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-139-2014, 2014
C. Jiao, M. G. Flanner, Y. Balkanski, S. E. Bauer, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, H. Bian, K. S. Carslaw, M. Chin, N. De Luca, T. Diehl, S. J. Ghan, T. Iversen, A. Kirkevåg, D. Koch, X. Liu, G. W. Mann, J. E. Penner, G. Pitari, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, R. B. Skeie, S. D. Steenrod, P. Stier, T. Takemura, K. Tsigaridis, T. van Noije, Y. Yun, and K. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 2399–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2399-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2399-2014, 2014
V. Grewe, C. Frömming, S. Matthes, S. Brinkop, M. Ponater, S. Dietmüller, P. Jöckel, H. Garny, E. Tsati, K. Dahlmann, O. A. Søvde, J. Fuglestvedt, T. K. Berntsen, K. P. Shine, E. A. Irvine, T. Champougny, and P. Hullah
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 175–201, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-175-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-175-2014, 2014
F. M. O'Connor, C. E. Johnson, O. Morgenstern, N. L. Abraham, P. Braesicke, M. Dalvi, G. A. Folberth, M. G. Sanderson, P. J. Telford, A. Voulgarakis, P. J. Young, G. Zeng, W. J. Collins, and J. A. Pyle
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 41–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-41-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-41-2014, 2014
B. Aamaas, G. P. Peters, and J. S. Fuglestvedt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 145–170, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-145-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-145-2013, 2013
M. M. Fry, M. D. Schwarzkopf, Z. Adelman, V. Naik, W. J. Collins, and J. J. West
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5381–5399, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5381-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5381-2013, 2013
V. Naik, A. Voulgarakis, A. M. Fiore, L. W. Horowitz, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Lin, M. J. Prather, P. J. Young, D. Bergmann, P. J. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, T. P. C. van Noije, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, R. Skeie, D. T. Shindell, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5277–5298, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, 2013
M. S. Eide, S. B. Dalsøren, Ø. Endresen, B. Samset, G. Myhre, J. Fuglestvedt, and T. Berntsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4183–4201, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4183-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4183-2013, 2013
K. W. Bowman, D. T. Shindell, H. M. Worden, J.F. Lamarque, P. J. Young, D. S. Stevenson, Z. Qu, M. de la Torre, D. Bergmann, P. J. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Collins, R. Doherty, S. B. Dalsøren, G. Faluvegi, G. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. M. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, D. A. Plummer, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, A. Voulgarakis, G. Zeng, S. S. Kulawik, A. M. Aghedo, and J. R. Worden
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4057–4072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4057-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4057-2013, 2013
D. T. Shindell, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Schulz, M. Flanner, C. Jiao, M. Chin, P. J. Young, Y. H. Lee, L. Rotstayn, N. Mahowald, G. Milly, G. Faluvegi, Y. Balkanski, W. J. Collins, A. J. Conley, S. Dalsoren, R. Easter, S. Ghan, L. Horowitz, X. Liu, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, S. T. Rumbold, R. Skeie, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, T. Takemura, A. Voulgarakis, J.-H. Yoon, and F. Lo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2939–2974, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013, 2013
D. S. Stevenson, P. J. Young, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, A. Voulgarakis, R. B. Skeie, S. B. Dalsoren, G. Myhre, T. K. Berntsen, G. A. Folberth, S. T. Rumbold, W. J. Collins, I. A. MacKenzie, R. M. Doherty, G. Zeng, T. P. C. van Noije, A. Strunk, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, D. A. Plummer, S. A. Strode, L. Horowitz, Y. H. Lee, S. Szopa, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, B. Josse, I. Cionni, M. Righi, V. Eyring, A. Conley, K. W. Bowman, O. Wild, and A. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3063–3085, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, 2013
Y. H. Lee, J.-F. Lamarque, M. G. Flanner, C. Jiao, D. T. Shindell, T. Berntsen, M. M. Bisiaux, J. Cao, W. J. Collins, M. Curran, R. Edwards, G. Faluvegi, S. Ghan, L. W. Horowitz, J. R. McConnell, J. Ming, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, K. Sudo, T. Takemura, F. Thevenon, B. Xu, and J.-H. Yoon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2607–2634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2607-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2607-2013, 2013
W. J. Collins, M. M. Fry, H. Yu, J. S. Fuglestvedt, D. T. Shindell, and J. J. West
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2471–2485, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2471-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2471-2013, 2013
A. Voulgarakis, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, P. J. Young, M. J. Prather, O. Wild, R. D. Field, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, D. S. Stevenson, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, 2013
B. H. Samset, G. Myhre, M. Schulz, Y. Balkanski, S. Bauer, T. K. Berntsen, H. Bian, N. Bellouin, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, T. Iversen, S. Kinne, A. Kirkevåg, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Lin, X. Liu, J. E. Penner, Ø. Seland, R. B. Skeie, P. Stier, T. Takemura, K. Tsigaridis, and K. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2423–2434, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2423-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2423-2013, 2013
P. J. Young, A. T. Archibald, K. W. Bowman, J.-F. Lamarque, V. Naik, D. S. Stevenson, S. Tilmes, A. Voulgarakis, O. Wild, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, D. T. Shindell, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2063–2090, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, 2013
J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, B. Josse, P. J. Young, I. Cionni, V. Eyring, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Collins, R. Doherty, S. Dalsoren, G. Faluvegi, G. Folberth, S. J. Ghan, L. W. Horowitz, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, D. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, M. Schulz, R. B. Skeie, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, A. Voulgarakis, and G. Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 179–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, 2013
M. Sand, T. K. Berntsen, J. E. Kay, J. F. Lamarque, Ø. Seland, and A. Kirkevåg
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 211–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-211-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-211-2013, 2013
Ø. Hodnebrog, T. K. Berntsen, O. Dessens, M. Gauss, V. Grewe, I. S. A. Isaksen, B. Koffi, G. Myhre, D. Olivié, M. J. Prather, F. Stordal, S. Szopa, Q. Tang, P. van Velthoven, and J. E. Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 12211–12225, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12211-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12211-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Subject: Aerosols | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Modeling simulation of aerosol light absorption over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region: the impact of mixing state and aging processes
An investigation of the impact of Canadian wildfires on US air quality using model, satellite, and ground measurements
How to trace the origins of short-lived atmospheric species: an Arctic example
Dust-producing weather patterns of the North American Great Plains
High-resolution air quality maps for Bucharest using a mixed-effects modeling framework
Interdecadal shift in the impact of winter land-sea thermal contrasts on following spring transcontinental dust transport pathways in North Africa
Construction and application of a pollen emissions model based on phenology and random forests
An uncertain future for the climate and health impacts of anthropogenic aerosols in Africa
The impact of uncertainty in black carbon's refractive index on simulated optical depth and radiative forcing
Gas-phase collision rate enhancement factors for acid-base clusters up to 2 nm in diameter from atomistic simulation and the interacting hard sphere model
Characterization of brown carbon absorption in different European environments through source contribution analysis
Accounting for the black carbon aging process in a two-way coupled meteorology–air quality model
The effectiveness of solar radiation management using fine sea spray across multiple climatic regions
A global dust emission dataset for estimating dust radiative forcings in climate models
Tropospheric aerosols over the western North Atlantic Ocean during the winter and summer deployments of ACTIVATE 2020: life cycle, transport, and distribution
Spatial and temporal evolution of future atmospheric reactive nitrogen deposition in China under different climate change mitigation strategies
Steady-state mixing state of black carbon aerosols from a particle-resolved model
Direct radiative forcing of light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosol and the influencing factors over China
Distinctive dust weather intensities in North China resulted from two types of atmospheric circulation anomalies
Biomass burning emission analysis based on MODIS aerosol optical depth and AeroCom multi-model simulations: implications for model constraints and emission inventories
Quasi-weekly oscillation of regional PM2.5 transport over China driven by the synoptic-scale disturbance of the East Asian winter monsoon circulation
Solar radiation estimation in West Africa: impact of dust conditions during the 2021 dry season
Machine Learning Assisted Inference of the Particle Charge Fraction and the Ion-induced Nucleation Rates during New Particle Formation Events
Modeling urban pollutant transport at multi-resolutions: Impacts of turbulent mixing
Gaps in our understanding of ice-nucleating particle sources exposed by global simulation of the UK Earth System Model
The role of interfacial tension in the size-dependent phase separation of atmospheric aerosol particles
Impact of Topographic Wind Conditions on Dust Particle Size Distribution: Insights from a Regional Dust Reanalysis Dataset
Seasonal differences in observed versus modeled new particle formation over boreal regions
Warming effects of reduced sulfur emissions from shipping
The key role of atmospheric absorption in the Asian summer monsoon response to dust emissions in CMIP6 models
Multi-model effective radiative forcing of the 2020 sulfur cap for shipping
Exploring the Aerosol Activation Properties in a Coastal Area Using Cloud and Particle-resolving Models
Representation of iron aerosol size distributions of anthropogenic emissions is critical in evaluating atmospheric soluble iron input to the ocean
Revealing dominant patterns of aerosol regimes in the lower troposphere and their evolution from preindustrial times to the future in global climate model simulations
A Novel Method to Quantify the Uncertainty Contribution of Aerosol-Radiative Interaction Factors
Improving estimation of a record-breaking east Asian dust storm emission with lagged aerosol Ångström exponent observations
Impact of biomass burning aerosols (BBA) on the tropical African climate in an ocean–atmosphere–aerosol coupled climate model
Retrieval of refractive index and water content for the coating materials of aged black carbon aerosol based on optical properties: a theoretical analysis
Strong inter-model differences and biases in CMIP6 simulations of PM2.5, aerosol optical depth, and precipitation over Africa
Impact of post monsoon crop residue burning on PM2.5 over North India: Optimizing emissions using a high-density in situ surface observation network
Predicting hygroscopic growth of organosulfur aerosol particles using COSMOtherm
Dust aerosol from the Aralkum Desert influences the radiation budget and atmospheric dynamics of Central Asia
Global modeling of aerosol nucleation with a semi-explicit chemical mechanism for highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs)
Synergistic effects of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on dust activities in North China during the following spring
Aerosol composition, air quality, and boundary layer dynamics in the urban background of Stuttgart in winter
Response of the link between ENSO and the East Asian winter monsoon to Asian anthropogenic aerosols
Measurement report: Source attribution and estimation of black carbon levels in an urban hotspot of the central Po Valley – an integrated approach combining high-resolution dispersion modelling and micro-aethalometers
Modeling CMAQ dry deposition treatment over Western Pacific: A distinct characteristic of mineral dust and anthropogenic aerosol
Microphysical modelling of aerosol scavenging by different types of clouds: description and validation of the approach
Insights into the sources of ultrafine particle numbers at six European urban sites obtained by investigating COVID-19 lockdowns
Huiyun Du, Jie Li, Xueshun Chen, Gabriele Curci, Fangqun Yu, Yele Sun, Xu Dao, Song Guo, Zhe Wang, Wenyi Yang, Lianfang Wei, and Zifa Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5665–5681, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5665-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5665-2025, 2025
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Inadequate consideration of mixing states and coatings on black carbon (BC) hinders aerosol radiation forcing quantification. Core–shell mixing aligns well with observations, but partial internal mixing is a more realistic representation. We used a microphysics module to determine the fraction of embedded BC and coating aerosols, constraining the mixing state. This reduced absorption enhancement by 30 %–43 % in northern China, offering insights into BC's radiative effects.
Zhixin Xue, Nair Udaysankar, and Sundar A. Christopher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5497–5517, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5497-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5497-2025, 2025
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Canadian wildfires in August 2018 significantly increased surface air pollution across the United States (US) – by up to 69 % in some areas. Using model, satellite, and ground measurements, the study highlights how weather patterns and long-range smoke transport drive pollution. The northwestern US was most affected by Canadian wildfire smoke, while the northeastern US experienced the least impact. These findings indicate the growing concern that wildfire smoke poses to air quality across the US.
Anderson Da Silva, Louis Marelle, Jean-Christophe Raut, Yvette Gramlich, Karolina Siegel, Sophie L. Haslett, Claudia Mohr, and Jennie L. Thomas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5331–5354, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5331-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5331-2025, 2025
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Particle sources in polar climates are unclear, affecting climate representation in models. This study introduces an evaluated method for tracking particles with backward modeling. Tests on simulated particles allowed us to show that traditional detection methods often misidentify sources. An improved method that accurately traces the origins of aerosol particles in the Arctic is presented. The study recommends using this enhanced method for better source identification of atmospheric species.
Stuart Evans
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4833–4845, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4833-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4833-2025, 2025
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This study of the North American Great Plains identifies the various weather patterns responsible for blowing dust in all parts of the region using a weather pattern classification. In the southwestern plains passing cold fronts are the primary cause of dust; in the understudied northern plains, summertime patterns and southerly pre-frontal winds are most important in the west and east, respectively. These results are valuable to understanding and forecasting dust in this complex source region.
Camelia Talianu, Jeni Vasilescu, Doina Nicolae, Alexandru Ilie, Andrei Dandocsi, Anca Nemuc, and Livio Belegante
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4639–4654, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4639-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4639-2025, 2025
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For Bucharest, Romania's capital, mobile measurements during two intensive campaigns and mixed-effect LUR (land-use regression) models to derive seasonal maps of near-surface PM10, NO2 and UFPs (ultrafine particles) have successfully been used. The model's performance was evaluated, demonstrating its potential for high-resolution mapping in other cities with well-characterized urban structures and diverse in situ monitoring stations.
Qi Wen, Yan Li, Mengying Du, Wenjun Song, Linbo Wei, Zhilan Wang, and Xu Li
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-826, 2025
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We find that, through an interdecadal phase-locking effect of sea-land thermal forcing-North Atlantic Oscillation-Westerly Jet coupling, springtime dust from North Africa is more likely to be transported eastwards (extending into North America) after the late 1990s, whereas before that time westward transport paths for dust were more frequent. Subject to thermal forcing, wind speed and drought contribute to dust emissions in the two periods, respectively.
Jiangtao Li, Xingqin An, Zhaobin Sun, Caihua Ye, Qing Hou, Yuxin Zhao, and Zhe Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3583–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3583-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3583-2025, 2025
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Climate change and pollution have intensified pollen allergies. We developed a pollen emissions model using phenology and random forests. Key factors affecting annual pollen emissions include temperature, relative humidity and sunshine hours. Pollen dispersal starts around 10 August, peaks around 30 August and ends by 25 September, lasting about 45 d. Over time, annual pollen emissions exhibit significant fluctuations and a downward trend.
Joe Adabouk Amooli, Marianne T. Lund, Sourangsu Chowdhury, Gunnar Myhre, Ane N. Johansen, Bjørn H. Samset, and Daniel M. Westervelt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-948, 2025
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We analyze various projections of African aerosol emissions and their potential impacts on climate and public health. We find that future emissions vary widely across emission projections, with differences in sectoral emission distributions. Using the Oslo chemical transport model, we show that air pollution exposure in some regions of Africa could increase significantly by 2050, increasing pollution-related deaths, with most scenarios projecting aerosol-induced warming over sub-Saharan Africa.
Ruth A. R. Digby, Knut von Salzen, Adam H. Monahan, Nathan P. Gillett, and Jiangnan Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3109–3130, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3109-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3109-2025, 2025
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The refractive index of black carbon (BCRI), which determines how much energy black carbon absorbs and scatters, is difficult to measure, and different climate models use different values. We show that varying the BCRI across commonly used values can increase absorbing aerosol optical depth by 42 % and the warming effect from interactions between black carbon and radiation by 47 %, an appreciable fraction of the overall spread between models reported in recent literature assessments.
Valtteri Tikkanen, Huan Yang, Hanna Vehkamäki, and Bernhard Reischl
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-507, 2025
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Collisions of neutral molecules and clusters is the prevalent pathway in atmospheric new particle formation. In heavily polluted urban areas, where clusters are formed rapidly and in large number, cluster-cluster collisions also become relevant. We calculate cluster-cluster collision rates from atomistic molecular dynamics simulations and an interacting hard sphere model. Not accounting for long-range attractive interactions underestimates collision and particle formation rates significantly.
Hector Navarro-Barboza, Jordi Rovira, Vincenzo Obiso, Andrea Pozzer, Marta Via, Andres Alastuey, Xavier Querol, Noemi Perez, Marjan Savadkoohi, Gang Chen, Jesus Yus-Díez, Matic Ivancic, Martin Rigler, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Stergios Vratolis, Olga Zografou, Maria Gini, Benjamin Chazeau, Nicolas Marchand, Andre S. H. Prevot, Kaspar Dallenbach, Mikael Ehn, Krista Luoma, Tuukka Petäjä, Anna Tobler, Jaroslaw Necki, Minna Aurela, Hilkka Timonen, Jarkko Niemi, Olivier Favez, Jean-Eudes Petit, Jean-Philippe Putaud, Christoph Hueglin, Nicolas Pascal, Aurélien Chauvigné, Sébastien Conil, Marco Pandolfi, and Oriol Jorba
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2667–2694, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2667-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2667-2025, 2025
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Brown carbon (BrC) absorbs ultraviolet (UV) and visible light, influencing climate. This study explores BrC's imaginary refractive index (k) using data from 12 European sites. Residential emissions are a major organic aerosol (OA) source in winter, while secondary organic aerosol (SOA) dominates in summer. Source-specific k values were derived, improving model accuracy. The findings highlight BrC's climate impact and emphasize source-specific constraints in atmospheric models.
Yuzhi Jin, Jiandong Wang, Chao Liu, David C. Wong, Golam Sarwar, Kathleen M. Fahey, Shang Wu, Jiaping Wang, Jing Cai, Zeyuan Tian, Zhouyang Zhang, Jia Xing, Aijun Ding, and Shuxiao Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2613–2630, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2613-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2613-2025, 2025
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Black carbon (BC) affects climate and the environment, and its aging process alters its properties. Current models, like WRF-CMAQ, lack full accounting for it. We developed the WRF-CMAQ-BCG model to better represent BC aging by introducing bare and coated BC species and their conversion. The WRF-CMAQ-BCG model introduces the capability to simulate BC mixing states and bare and coated BC wet deposition, and it improves the accuracy of BC mass concentration and aerosol optics.
Zhe Song, Shaocai Yu, Pengfei Li, Ningning Yao, Lang Chen, Yuhai Sun, Boqiong Jiang, and Daniel Rosenfeld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2473–2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2473-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2473-2025, 2025
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Our results with injected sea salt aerosols for five open oceans show that sea salt aerosols with low injection amounts dominate shortwave radiation, mainly through indirect effects. As indirect aerosol effects saturate with increasing injection rates, direct effects exceed indirect effects. This implies that marine cloud brightening is best implemented in areas with extensive cloud cover, while aerosol direct scattering effects remain dominant when clouds are scarce.
Danny M. Leung, Jasper F. Kok, Longlei Li, David M. Lawrence, Natalie M. Mahowald, Simone Tilmes, and Erik Kluzek
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2311–2331, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2311-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2311-2025, 2025
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This study derives a gridded dust emission dataset for 1841–2000 by employing a combination of observed dust from core records and reanalyzed global dust cycle constraints. We evaluate the ability of global models to replicate the observed historical dust variability by using the emission dataset to force a historical simulation in an Earth system model. We show that prescribing our emissions forces the model to better match observations than other mechanistic models.
Hongyu Liu, Bo Zhang, Richard H. Moore, Luke D. Ziemba, Richard A. Ferrare, Hyundeok Choi, Armin Sorooshian, David Painemal, Hailong Wang, Michael A. Shook, Amy Jo Scarino, Johnathan W. Hair, Ewan C. Crosbie, Marta A. Fenn, Taylor J. Shingler, Chris A. Hostetler, Gao Chen, Mary M. Kleb, Gan Luo, Fangqun Yu, Mark A. Vaughan, Yongxiang Hu, Glenn S. Diskin, John B. Nowak, Joshua P. DiGangi, Yonghoon Choi, Christoph A. Keller, and Matthew S. Johnson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2087–2121, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2087-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2087-2025, 2025
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We use the GEOS-Chem model to simulate aerosol distributions and properties over the western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) during the winter and summer deployments in 2020 of the NASA ACTIVATE mission. Model results are evaluated against aircraft, ground-based, and satellite observations. The improved understanding of life cycle, composition, transport pathways, and distribution of aerosols has important implications for characterizing aerosol–cloud–meteorology interactions over WNAO.
Mingrui Ma, Jiachen Cao, Dan Tong, Bo Zheng, and Yu Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2147–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2147-2025, 2025
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We combined two global climate change pathways and three national emission control scenarios to analyze the future evolution of reactive nitrogen (Nr) deposition till the 2060s in China with air quality modeling. We show China’s clean air and carbon neutrality policies would overcome the adverse effects of climate change and efficiently reduce Nr deposition. The outflow of Nr fluxes from mainland China to the west Pacific would also be clearly reduced from continuous stringent emission controls.
Zhouyang Zhang, Jiandong Wang, Jiaping Wang, Nicole Riemer, Chao Liu, Yuzhi Jin, Zeyuan Tian, Jing Cai, Yueyue Cheng, Ganzhen Chen, Bin Wang, Shuxiao Wang, and Aijun Ding
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1869–1881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1869-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1869-2025, 2025
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Black carbon (BC) exerts notable warming effects. We use a particle-resolved model to investigate the long-term behavior of the BC mixing state, revealing its compositions, coating thickness distribution, and optical properties all stabilize with a characteristic time of less than 1 d. This study can effectively simplify the description of the BC mixing state, which facilitates the precise assessment of the optical properties of BC aerosols in global and chemical transport models.
Shuangqin Yang, Yusi Liu, Li Chen, Nan Cao, Jing Wang, and Shuang Gao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3705, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3705, 2025
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Black carbon, primary brown carbon, and secondary brown carbon are the leading light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosols (LACs) that contribute significantly to climate change. We modified the GEOS-Chem model to simulate the climate change by LACs based on local emission inventory, and explored the impacts of LACs properties and atmospheric variables on the corresponding DRFs in seven regions of China. The study confirms the warming effect of LACs and deepens our knowledge of their climatic effects.
Qianyi Huo, Zhicong Yin, Xiaoqing Ma, and Huijun Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1711–1724, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1711-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1711-2025, 2025
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Dust days during the spring seasons of 2015–2023 in North China were classified into Mongolian cyclone and cold high types depending on the presence of the Mongolian cyclone. The Mongolian cyclone type led to more frequent and severe dust weather, indicated by PM10 concentrations. To comprehensively forecast the two types of dust weather, a common predictor was established based on 500 hPa anomalous circulation systems, offering insights for dust weather forecasting and climate prediction.
Mariya Petrenko, Ralph Kahn, Mian Chin, Susanne E. Bauer, Tommi Bergman, Huisheng Bian, Gabriele Curci, Ben Johnson, Johannes W. Kaiser, Zak Kipling, Harri Kokkola, Xiaohong Liu, Keren Mezuman, Tero Mielonen, Gunnar Myhre, Xiaohua Pan, Anna Protonotariou, Samuel Remy, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Hailong Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Kai Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1545–1567, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1545-2025, 2025
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We compared smoke plume simulations from 11 global models to each other and to satellite smoke amount observations aimed at constraining smoke source strength. In regions where plumes are thick and background aerosol is low, models and satellites compare well. However, the input emission inventory tends to underestimate in many places, and particle property and loss rate assumptions vary enormously among models, causing uncertainties that require systematic in situ measurements to resolve.
Yongqing Bai, Tianliang Zhao, Kai Meng, Yue Zhou, Jie Xiong, Xiaoyun Sun, Lijuan Shen, Yanyu Yue, Yan Zhu, Weiyang Hu, and Jingyan Yao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1273–1287, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1273-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1273-2025, 2025
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We proposed a composite statistical method to identify the quasi-weekly oscillation (QWO) of regional PM2.5 transport over China in winter from 2015 to 2019. The QWO of regional PM2.5 transport is constrained by synoptic-scale disturbances of the East Asian winter monsoon circulation with the periodic activities of the Siberian high, providing a new insight into the understanding of regional pollutant transport with meteorological drivers in atmospheric environment changes.
Léo Clauzel, Sandrine Anquetin, Christophe Lavaysse, Gilles Bergametti, Christel Bouet, Guillaume Siour, Rémy Lapere, Béatrice Marticorena, and Jennie Thomas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 997–1021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-997-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-997-2025, 2025
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Solar energy production in West Africa is set to rise and needs accurate solar radiation estimates which are affected by desert dust. This work analyses a March 2021 dust event using a modelling strategy incorporating desert dust. Results show that considering desert dust cuts errors in solar radiation estimates by 75 % and reduces surface solar radiation by 18 %. This highlights the importance of incorporating dust aerosols into solar forecasting for better accuracy.
Pan Wang, Yue Zhao, Jiandong Wang, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Jingkun Jiang, and Chenxi Li
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3666, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3666, 2025
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We developed a numerical model to explore how the charge state of newly formed atmospheric particles evolves during growth and how this relates to ion-induced nucleation rates. We identify the governing factors of particle charging and further apply neural networks to predict particle charge states and estimate ion induced nucleation rates. This study offers insights into particle charging dynamics and introduces new methods for assessing ion induced nucleation in atmospheric research.
Zining Yang, Qiuyan Du, Qike Yang, Chun Zhao, Gudongze Li, Zihan Xia, Mingyue Xu, Renmin Yuan, Yubin Li, Kaihui Xia, Jun Gu, and Jiawang Feng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3890, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3890, 2025
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This study investigates the impact of turbulent mixing on black carbon (BC) concentrations in urban areas using WRF-Chem at 25, 5, and 1 km resolutions. Significant variations in BC and turbulent mixing occur mainly at night. Higher resolutions reduce BC overestimation due to enhanced PBL mixing coefficients and vertical wind fluxes. Small-scale eddies at higher resolutions increase BC lifetime and column concentrations. Land use and terrain variations across multi-resolutions affect PBL mixing.
Ross J. Herbert, Alberto Sanchez-Marroquin, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Kirsty J. Pringle, Stephen R. Arnold, Benjamin J. Murray, and Kenneth S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 291–325, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-291-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-291-2025, 2025
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Aerosol particles that help form ice in clouds vary in number and type around the world and with time. However, in many weather and climate models cloud ice is not linked to aerosols that are known to nucleate ice. Here we report the first steps towards representing ice-nucleating particles within the UK Earth System Model. We conclude that in addition to ice nucleation by sea spray and mineral components of soil dust, we also need to represent ice nucleation by the organic components of soils.
Ryan Schmedding and Andreas Zuend
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 327–346, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-327-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-327-2025, 2025
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Four different approaches for computing the interfacial tension between liquid phases in aerosol particles were tested for particles with diameters from 10 nm to more than 5 μm. Antonov's rule led to the strongest reductions in the onset relative humidity of liquid–liquid phase separation and reproduced measured interfacial tensions for highly immiscible systems. A modified form of the Butler equation was able to best reproduce measured interfacial tensions in more miscible systems.
Xinyue Huang, Wenyu Gao, and Hosein Foroutan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3076, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3076, 2024
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This study investigates the relationship between wind-blown dust aerosols size distribution and wind conditions over topography at a regional scale, utilizing 10 years of dust reanalysis data. Linear regression models suggest that higher wind speeds and steeper land slopes, particularly under uphill winds, are associated with increased fractions of coarser dust particles. Moreover, these positive correlations weaken during summer and afternoon events, likely related to the haboob storms.
Carl Svenhag, Pontus Roldin, Tinja Olenius, Robin Wollesen de Jonge, Sara Blichner, Daniel Yazgi, and Moa Sporre
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3626, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3626, 2024
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This study investigates the model representation of how particles are formed and grow in the atmosphere. Using modeled and observed data from two boreal forest stations in 2018, we identify key factors for NPF to improve particle-climate predictions in the global EC-Earth3 model. Comparisons with the detailed ADCHEM model show that adding ammonia improves particle growth predictions, though EC-Earth3 still highly underestimates the number of particles during warmer months.
Masaru Yoshioka, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Ben B. B. Booth, Colin P. Morice, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13681–13692, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13681-2024, 2024
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A 2020 regulation has reduced sulfur emissions from shipping by about 80 %, leading to a decrease in atmospheric aerosols that have a cooling effect primarily by affecting cloud properties and amounts. Our climate model simulations predict a global temperature increase of 0.04 K over the next 3 decades as a result, which could contribute to surpassing the Paris Agreement's 1.5 °C target. Reduced aerosols may have also contributed to the recent temperature spikes.
Alcide Zhao, Laura J. Wilcox, and Claire L. Ryder
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13385–13402, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13385-2024, 2024
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Climate models include desert dust aerosols, which cause atmospheric heating and can change circulation patterns. We assess the effect of dust on the Indian and east Asian summer monsoons through multi-model experiments isolating the effect of dust in current climate models for the first time. Dust atmospheric heating results in a southward shift of western Pacific equatorial rainfall and an enhanced Indian summer monsoon. This shows the importance of accurate dust representation in models.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Rachael Byrom, Øivind Hodnebrog, Caroline Jouan, and Gunnar Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13361–13370, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13361-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13361-2024, 2024
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In 2020, new regulations by the International Maritime Organization regarding sulfur emissions came into force, reducing emissions of SO2 from the shipping sector by approximately 80 %. In this study, we use multiple models to calculate how much the Earth energy balance changed due to the emission reduction or the so-called effective radiative forcing. The calculated effective radiative forcing is weak, comparable to the effect of the increase in CO2 over the last 2 to 3 years.
Ge Yu, Yueya Wang, Zhe Wang, and Xiaoming Shi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3581, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3581, 2024
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Studying the cloud-forming capacity of aerosols is crucial in climate research. The PartMC model can provide detailed particle information and help these studies. This model is integrated with the ideal meteorological Cloud Model 1 (CM1) to simulate the aerosols at cloud-forming locations. Significant changes are revealed in the hygroscopicity distribution of aerosols within ascending air parcels. Additionally, different ascent times also affect aerosol aging processes.
Mingxu Liu, Hitoshi Matsui, Douglas S. Hamilton, Sagar D. Rathod, Kara D. Lamb, and Natalie M. Mahowald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13115–13127, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13115-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric aerosol deposition provides bioavailable iron to promote marine primary production, yet the estimates of its fluxes remain highly uncertain. This study, by performing global aerosol simulations, demonstrates that iron-containing particle size upon emission is a critical factor in regulating soluble iron input to open oceans. Further observational constraints on this are needed to reduce modeling uncertainties.
Jingmin Li, Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, Christof G. Beer, Ulrike Burkhardt, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12727–12747, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12727-2024, 2024
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Aiming to understand underlying patterns and trends in aerosols, we characterize the spatial patterns and long-term evolution of lower tropospheric aerosols by clustering multiple aerosol properties from preindustrial times to the year 2050 under three Shared
Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. The results provide a clear and condensed picture of the spatial extent and distribution of aerosols for different time periods and emission scenarios.
Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. The results provide a clear and condensed picture of the spatial extent and distribution of aerosols for different time periods and emission scenarios.
Bishuo He and Chunsheng Zhao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3441, 2024
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Factor-uncertainty analysis helps us understand their impacts on complex systems. Traditional methods have many limitations. This study introduces a new method to measure how each factor contributes to uncertainty. It gains insights into the role of each variable and works for all multi-factor systems. As an application, we analyzed how aerosols affect solar radiation and identified the key factors. These analyses can improve our understanding of the role of aerosols in climate change.
Yueming Cheng, Tie Dai, Junji Cao, Daisuke Goto, Jianbing Jin, Teruyuki Nakajima, and Guangyu Shi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12643–12659, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12643-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12643-2024, 2024
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In March 2021, east Asia experienced an outbreak of severe dust storms after an absence of 1.5 decades. Here, we innovatively used the time-lagged ground-based aerosol size information with the fixed-lag ensemble Kalman smoother to optimize dust emission and reproduce the dust storm. This work is valuable for not only the quantification of health damage, aviation risks, and profound impacts on the Earth's system but also revealing the climatic driving force and the process of desertification.
Marc Mallet, Aurore Voldoire, Fabien Solmon, Pierre Nabat, Thomas Drugé, and Romain Roehrig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12509–12535, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12509-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12509-2024, 2024
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This study investigates the interactions between smoke aerosols and climate in tropical Africa using a coupled ocean–atmosphere–aerosol climate model. The work shows that smoke plumes have a significant impact by increasing the low-cloud fraction, decreasing the ocean and continental surface temperature and reducing the precipitation of coastal western Africa. It also highlights the role of the ocean temperature response and its feedbacks for the September–November season.
Jia Liu, Cancan Zhu, Donghui Zhou, and Jinbao Han
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12341–12354, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12341-2024, 2024
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The hydrophilic coatings of aged black carbon (BC) particles absorb moisture during the hygroscopic growth process, but it is difficult to characterize how much water is absorbed under different relative humidities (RHs). In this study, we propose a method to obtain the water content in the coatings based on the equivalent complex refractive index retrieved from optical properties. This method is verified from a theoretical perspective, and it performs well for thickly coated BC at high RHs.
Catherine Anne Toolan, Joe Adabouk Amooli, Laura J. Wilcox, Bjørn H. Samset, Andrew G. Turner, and Daniel M. Westervelt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3057, 2024
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Our research explores how well air pollution and rainfall patterns in Africa are represented in current climate models, by comparing model data to observations from 1981 to 2023. While most models capture seasonal air quality changes well, they struggle to replicate the distribution of non-dust pollutants and certain rainfall patterns, especially over east Africa. Improving these models is crucial for better climate predictions and preparing for future risks.
Mizuo Kajino, Kentaro Ishijima, Joseph Ching, Kazuyo Yamaji, Rio Ishikawa, Tomoki Kajikawa, Tanbir Singh, Tomoki Nakayama, Yutaka Matsumi, Koyo Kojima, Prabir K. Patra, and Sachiko Hayashida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1811, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1811, 2024
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Air pollution in Delhi during post monsoon period is severe and association with intensive crop residue burning (CRB) over Punjab state has attracted attention. However, the relationship has been unclear as the CRB emissions conventionally derived from satellites were underestimated due to clouds and haze over the region. We evaluated the impact of CRB on PM2.5 as about 50 %, based on a combination of numerical modeling and high-density observation network using low-cost sensors we installed.
Zijun Li, Angela Buchholz, and Noora Hyttinen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11717–11725, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11717-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11717-2024, 2024
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Evaluating organosulfur (OS) hygroscopicity is important for assessing aerosol–cloud climate interactions in the post-fossil-fuel future, when SO2 emissions decrease and OS compounds become increasingly important. Here a state-of-the-art quantum-chemistry-based method was used to predict the hygroscopic growth factors (HGFs) of a group of atmospherically relevant OS compounds and their mixtures with (NH4)2SO4. A good agreement was observed between their model-estimated and experimental HGFs.
Jamie R. Banks, Bernd Heinold, and Kerstin Schepanski
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11451–11475, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11451-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11451-2024, 2024
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The Aralkum is a new desert in Central Asia formed by the desiccation of the Aral Sea. This has created a source of atmospheric dust, with implications for the balance of solar and thermal radiation. Simulating these effects using a dust transport model, we find that Aralkum dust adds radiative cooling effects to the surface and atmosphere on average but also adds heating events. Increases in surface pressure due to Aralkum dust strengthen the Siberian High and weaken the summer Asian heat low.
Xinyue Shao, Minghuai Wang, Xinyi Dong, Yaman Liu, Wenxiang Shen, Stephen R. Arnold, Leighton A. Regayre, Meinrat O. Andreae, Mira L. Pöhlker, Duseong S. Jo, Man Yue, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11365–11389, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11365-2024, 2024
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Highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs) play an important role in atmospheric new particle formation (NPF). By semi-explicitly coupling the chemical mechanism of HOMs and a comprehensive nucleation scheme in a global climate model, the updated model shows better agreement with measurements of nucleation rate, growth rate, and NPF event frequency. Our results reveal that HOM-driven NPF leads to a considerable increase in particle and cloud condensation nuclei burden globally.
Falei Xu, Shuang Wang, Yan Li, and Juan Feng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10689–10705, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10689-2024, 2024
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This study examines how the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affect dust activities in North China during the following spring. The results show that the NAO and ENSO, particularly in their negative phases, greatly influence dust activities. When both are negative, their combined effect on dust activities is even greater. This research highlights the importance of these climate patterns in predicting spring dust activities in North China.
Hengheng Zhang, Wei Huang, Xiaoli Shen, Ramakrishna Ramisetty, Junwei Song, Olga Kiseleva, Christopher Claus Holst, Basit Khan, Thomas Leisner, and Harald Saathoff
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10617–10637, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10617-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10617-2024, 2024
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Our study unravels how stagnant winter conditions elevate aerosol levels in Stuttgart. Cloud cover at night plays a pivotal role, impacting morning air quality. Validating a key model, our findings aid accurate air quality predictions, crucial for effective pollution mitigation in urban areas.
Zixuan Jia, Massimo A. Bollasina, Wenjun Zhang, and Ying Xiang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2770, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2770, 2024
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Using multi-model mean data from regional aerosol perturbation experiments, we find that increased Asian sulfate aerosols strengthen the link between ENSO and the East Asian winter monsoon. In coupled simulations, aerosol-induced broad cooling increases ENSO amplitude by affecting the tropical Pacific mean state, contributing to increase monsoon interannual variability. These results provide important implications to reduce uncertainties in future projections of regional extreme variability.
Giorgio Veratti, Alessandro Bigi, Michele Stortini, Sergio Teggi, and Grazia Ghermandi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10475–10512, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10475-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10475-2024, 2024
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In a study of two consecutive winter seasons, we used measurements and modelling tools to identify the levels and sources of black carbon pollution in a medium-sized urban area of the Po Valley, Italy. Our findings show that biomass burning and traffic-related emissions (especially from Euro 4 diesel cars) significantly contribute to BC concentrations. This research offers crucial insights for policymakers and urban planners aiming to improve air quality in cities.
Steven Soon-Kai Kong, Joshua S. Fu, Neng-Huei Lin, Guey-Rong Sheu, and Wei-Syun Huang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2549, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2549, 2024
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The accuracy of the chemical transport model, a key focus of our research, is strongly dependent on the dry deposition parameterization. Our finding shows that the refined CMAQ dust model correlated well with the ground and high altitude in-situ measurements by implementing the suggested dry deposition schemes. Furthermore, we reveal the mixing state of two types of aerosols at the upper level, a finding supported by both the optimized model and measurement.
Pascal Lemaitre, Arnaud Quérel, Alexis Dépée, Alice Guerra Devigne, Marie Monier, Thibault Hiron, Chloé Soto Minguez, Daniel Hardy, and Andrea Flossmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9713–9732, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9713-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9713-2024, 2024
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A new in-cloud scavenging scheme is proposed. It is based on a microphysical model of cloud formation and may be applied to long-distance atmospheric transport models (> 100 km) and climatic models. This model is applied to the two most extreme precipitating cloud types in terms of both relative humidity and vertical extension: cumulonimbus and stratus.
Alex Rowell, James Brean, David C. S. Beddows, Tuukka Petäjä, Máté Vörösmarty, Imre Salma, Jarkko V. Niemi, Hanna E. Manninen, Dominik van Pinxteren, Thomas Tuch, Kay Weinhold, Zongbo Shi, and Roy M. Harrison
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9515–9531, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9515-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9515-2024, 2024
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Different sources of airborne particles in the atmospheres of four European cities were distinguished by recognising their particle size distributions using a statistical procedure, positive matrix factorisation. The various sources responded differently to the changes in emissions associated with COVID-19 lockdowns, and the reasons are investigated. While traffic emissions generally decreased, particles formed from reactions of atmospheric gases decreased in some cities but increased in others.
Cited articles
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Short summary
The climate impacts for emissions of different pollutants can be made comparable with weighting factors. This article estimates these weights based on temperature change for short-lived pollutants, such as methane and black carbon. Emissions from different seasons and regions are compared, for instance Europe and East Asia. The responses are calculated for four regions, where we see that the responses can be much higher in the Arctic than globally in some cases.
The climate impacts for emissions of different pollutants can be made comparable with weighting...
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