Articles | Volume 24, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2077-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2077-2024
Research article
 | 
19 Feb 2024
Research article |  | 19 Feb 2024

How well do Earth system models reproduce the observed aerosol response to rapid emission reductions? A COVID-19 case study

Ruth A. R. Digby, Nathan P. Gillett, Adam H. Monahan, Knut von Salzen, Antonis Gkikas, Qianqian Song, and Zhibo Zhang

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Cited articles

Acharya, P., Barik, G., Gayen, B. K., Bar, S., Maiti, A., Sarkar, A., Ghosh, S., De, S. K., and Sreekesh, S.: Revisiting the Levels of Aerosol Optical Depth in South-Southeast Asia, Europe and USA amid the COVID-19 Pandemic Using Satellite Observations, Environ. Res., 193, 110514, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.110514, 2021. a, b
Acosta Navarro, J. C., Ekman, A. M. L., Pausata, F. S. R., Lewinschal, A., Varma, V., Seland, Ø., Gauss, M., Iversen, T., Kirkevåg, A., Riipinen, I., and Hansson, H. C.: Future Response of Temperature and Precipitation to Reduced Aerosol Emissions as Compared with Increased Greenhouse Gas Concentrations, J. Climate, 30, 939–954, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0466.1, 2017. a
Al-Abadleh, H. A., Lysy, M., Neil, L., Patel, P., Mohammed, W., and Khalaf, Y.: Rigorous Quantification of Statistical Significance of the COVID-19 Lockdown Effect on Air Quality: The Case from Ground-Based Measurements in Ontario, Canada, J. Hazard. Mat., 413, 125445, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2021.125445, 2021. a
ASDC, E.: CALIPSO Orbit Change, https://asdc.larc.nasa.gov/news/calipso-orbit-change (last access: 6 March 2023), 2018. a
Balamurugan, V., , Chen, J., Qu, Z., Bi, X., Gensheimer, J., Shekhar, A., Bhattacharjee, S., and Keutsch, F. N.: Tropospheric NO2 and O3 Response to COVID-19 Lockdown Restrictions at the National and Urban Scales in Germany, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2021JD035440, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035440, 2021. a
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The COVID-19 lockdowns reduced aerosol emissions. We ask whether these reductions affected regional aerosol optical depth (AOD) and compare the observed changes to predictions from Earth system models. Only India has an observed AOD reduction outside of typical variability. Models overestimate the response in some regions, but when key biases have been addressed, the agreement is improved. Our results suggest that current models can realistically predict the effects of future emission changes.
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