Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
ACP
Articles | Volume 24, issue 4
Articles | Volume 24, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2077-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2077-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 24, issue 4
Research article
 | 
19 Feb 2024
Research article |  | 19 Feb 2024

How well do Earth system models reproduce the observed aerosol response to rapid emission reductions? A COVID-19 case study

Ruth A. R. Digby, Nathan P. Gillett, Adam H. Monahan, Knut von Salzen, Antonis Gkikas, Qianqian Song, and Zhibo Zhang

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Latest update: 06 Nov 2025
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Short summary
The COVID-19 lockdowns reduced aerosol emissions. We ask whether these reductions affected regional aerosol optical depth (AOD) and compare the observed changes to predictions from Earth system models. Only India has an observed AOD reduction outside of typical variability. Models overestimate the response in some regions, but when key biases have been addressed, the agreement is improved. Our results suggest that current models can realistically predict the effects of future emission changes.
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