Articles | Volume 20, issue 22
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13687–13700, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13687-2020
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13687–13700, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13687-2020
Research article
14 Nov 2020
Research article | 14 Nov 2020

Scant evidence for a volcanically forced winter warming over Eurasia following the Krakatau eruption of August 1883

Lorenzo M. Polvani and Suzana J. Camargo

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Cited articles

Bittner, M.: On the discrepancy between observed and simulated dynamical responses of Northern Hemisphere winter climate to large tropical volcanic eruptions, PhD thesis, Univerisity of Hamburg, Reports on Earth System Science, no. 173, 2015. a
Bittner, M., Schmidt, H., Timmreck, C., and Sienz, F.: Using a large ensemble of simulations to assess the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric dynamical response to tropical volcanic eruptions and its uncertainty, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9324–9332, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070587, 2016a. a, b, c, d, e
Bittner, M., Timmreck, C., Schmidt, H., Toohey, M., and Krüger, K.: The impact of wave-mean flow interaction on the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex after tropical volcanic eruptions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 5281–5297, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024603, 2016b. a
Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A., Domeisen, D. I., Simpson, I. R., and Sjoberg, J.: Predictability of Northern Hemisphere final stratospheric warmings and their surface impacts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 10578–10588, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083346, 2019. a
Calvo, N., García-Herrera, R., and Garcia, R. R.: The ENSO signal in the stratosphere, Ann. NY. Acad. Sci., 1146, 16–31, 2008. a
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Short summary
On the basis of questionable early studies, it is widely believed that low-latitude volcanic eruptions cause winter warming over Eurasia. However, we here demonstrate that the winter warming over Eurasia following the 1883 Krakatau eruption was unremarkable and, in all likelihood, unrelated to that eruption. Confirming similar findings for the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, the new research demonstrates that no detectable Eurasian winter warming is to be expected after eruptions of similar magnitude.
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