Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2749-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2749-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 Mar 2019
Research article |
| 04 Mar 2019
| 04 Mar 2019
On the value of reanalyses prior to 1979 for dynamical studies of stratosphere–troposphere coupling
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, École Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France
current address: Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA
Related authors
Cameron Bertossa, Peter Hitchcock, Arthur DeGaetano, and Riwal Plougonven
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-601, 2022
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
This work has identified characteristic spatial and temporal scales for non-Gaussian outbreaks in forecasts, specifically, bimodality. Methodology is introduced which allows one to connect meteorological phenomena to bimodal outbreaks. Large-scale circulation interacting with local processes is uncovered as a frequent ingredient to such outbreaks. These insights not only provide a deeper understanding of the dynamical processes involved, but also have drastic implications for forecast skill.
Peter Hitchcock, Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Tim Stockdale, James Anstey, Dann Mitchell, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Tongwen Wu, Yixiong Lu, Daniele Mastrangelo, Piero Malguzzi, Hai Lin, Ryan Muncaster, Bill Merryfield, Michael Sigmond, Baoqiang Xiang, Liwei Jia, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Jiyoung Oh, Damien Specq, Isla R. Simpson, Jadwiga H. Richter, Cory Barton, Jeff Knight, Eun-Pa Lim, and Harry Hendon
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5073–5092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes an experimental protocol focused on sudden stratospheric warmings to be carried out by subseasonal forecast modeling centers. These will allow for inter-model comparisons of these major disruptions to the stratospheric polar vortex and their impacts on the near-surface flow. The protocol will lead to new insights into the contribution of the stratosphere to subseasonal forecast skill and new approaches to the dynamical attribution of extreme events.
William J. Randel, Fei Wu, Alison Ming, and Peter Hitchcock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18531–18542, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18531-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18531-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Balloon and satellite observations show strong coupling between large-scale ozone and temperature fields in the tropical lower stratosphere, spanning timescales of days to years. We present a simple interpretation of this behavior based on an idealized model of transport by the tropical stratospheric circulation, and good quantitative agreement with observations demonstrates that this is a useful simplification. The results provide simple understanding of observed atmospheric behavior.
Cameron Bertossa, Peter Hitchcock, Arthur DeGaetano, and Riwal Plougonven
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1209–1224, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1209-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1209-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
While the assumption of Gaussianity leads to many simplifications, ensemble forecasts often exhibit non-Gaussian distributions. This work has systematically identified the presence of a specific case of
non-Gaussianity, bimodality. It has been found that bimodality occurs in a large portion of global 2 m temperature forecasts. This has drastic implications on forecast skill as the minimum probability in a bimodal distribution often lies at the maximum probability of a Gaussian distribution.
Alvaro de la Cámara, Marta Abalos, Peter Hitchcock, Natalia Calvo, and Rolando R. Garcia
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16499–16513, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16499-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16499-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Long chemistry–climate runs are used to investigate the changes that sudden stratospheric warmings (extreme and fast disruptions of the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex) induce on Arctic ozone. Ozone increases rapidly during the onset of the events, driven by deep changes in the stratospheric transport circulation. These anomalies decay slowly, particularly in the lower stratosphere where they can last up to 2 months. Irreversible mixing makes an important contribution to this behavior.
Alison Ming, Amanda C. Maycock, Peter Hitchcock, and Peter Haynes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5677–5701, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5677-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5677-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This work quantifies the contribution of the seasonal changes in ozone and water vapour to the temperature cycle in a region of the atmosphere about ~ 18 km up in the tropics (the lower stratosphere). This region is important because most of the air entering the stratosphere does so through this region and temperature fluctuations there influence how much water vapour enters the stratosphere and hence the properties of the stratosphere.
Cameron Bertossa, Peter Hitchcock, Arthur DeGaetano, and Riwal Plougonven
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-601, 2022
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
This work has identified characteristic spatial and temporal scales for non-Gaussian outbreaks in forecasts, specifically, bimodality. Methodology is introduced which allows one to connect meteorological phenomena to bimodal outbreaks. Large-scale circulation interacting with local processes is uncovered as a frequent ingredient to such outbreaks. These insights not only provide a deeper understanding of the dynamical processes involved, but also have drastic implications for forecast skill.
Peter Hitchcock, Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Tim Stockdale, James Anstey, Dann Mitchell, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Tongwen Wu, Yixiong Lu, Daniele Mastrangelo, Piero Malguzzi, Hai Lin, Ryan Muncaster, Bill Merryfield, Michael Sigmond, Baoqiang Xiang, Liwei Jia, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Jiyoung Oh, Damien Specq, Isla R. Simpson, Jadwiga H. Richter, Cory Barton, Jeff Knight, Eun-Pa Lim, and Harry Hendon
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5073–5092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes an experimental protocol focused on sudden stratospheric warmings to be carried out by subseasonal forecast modeling centers. These will allow for inter-model comparisons of these major disruptions to the stratospheric polar vortex and their impacts on the near-surface flow. The protocol will lead to new insights into the contribution of the stratosphere to subseasonal forecast skill and new approaches to the dynamical attribution of extreme events.
William J. Randel, Fei Wu, Alison Ming, and Peter Hitchcock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18531–18542, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18531-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18531-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Balloon and satellite observations show strong coupling between large-scale ozone and temperature fields in the tropical lower stratosphere, spanning timescales of days to years. We present a simple interpretation of this behavior based on an idealized model of transport by the tropical stratospheric circulation, and good quantitative agreement with observations demonstrates that this is a useful simplification. The results provide simple understanding of observed atmospheric behavior.
Cameron Bertossa, Peter Hitchcock, Arthur DeGaetano, and Riwal Plougonven
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1209–1224, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1209-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1209-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
While the assumption of Gaussianity leads to many simplifications, ensemble forecasts often exhibit non-Gaussian distributions. This work has systematically identified the presence of a specific case of
non-Gaussianity, bimodality. It has been found that bimodality occurs in a large portion of global 2 m temperature forecasts. This has drastic implications on forecast skill as the minimum probability in a bimodal distribution often lies at the maximum probability of a Gaussian distribution.
Alvaro de la Cámara, Marta Abalos, Peter Hitchcock, Natalia Calvo, and Rolando R. Garcia
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16499–16513, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16499-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16499-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Long chemistry–climate runs are used to investigate the changes that sudden stratospheric warmings (extreme and fast disruptions of the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex) induce on Arctic ozone. Ozone increases rapidly during the onset of the events, driven by deep changes in the stratospheric transport circulation. These anomalies decay slowly, particularly in the lower stratosphere where they can last up to 2 months. Irreversible mixing makes an important contribution to this behavior.
Alison Ming, Amanda C. Maycock, Peter Hitchcock, and Peter Haynes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5677–5701, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5677-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5677-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This work quantifies the contribution of the seasonal changes in ozone and water vapour to the temperature cycle in a region of the atmosphere about ~ 18 km up in the tropics (the lower stratosphere). This region is important because most of the air entering the stratosphere does so through this region and temperature fluctuations there influence how much water vapour enters the stratosphere and hence the properties of the stratosphere.
Related subject area
Subject: Dynamics | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Stratosphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
The impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the total column ozone over the Tibetan Plateau
Exploring ozone variability in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere using dynamical coordinates
Climatology of the terms and variables of transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) equations from multiple reanalyses: MERRA-2, JRA-55, ERA-Interim, and CFSR
Tropospheric Links to Uncertainty in Stratospheric Subseasonal Predictions
Quasi-biennial oscillation modulation of stratospheric water vapour in the Asian monsoon
Crucial role of obliquely propagating gravity waves in the quasi-biennial oscillation dynamics
Technical note: Multi-year changes in the Brewer–Dobson circulation from Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) methane
Exploring the ENSO modulation of the QBO periods with GISS E2.2 models
The impact of ENSO and NAO initial conditions and anomalies on the modeled response to Pinatubo-sized volcanic forcing
Stratospherically induced circulation changes under the extreme conditions of the no-Montreal-Protocol scenario
Vortex preconditioning of the 2021 sudden stratospheric warming: barotropic–baroclinic instability associated with the double westerly jets
On the pattern of interannual polar vortex–ozone co-variability during northern hemispheric winter
A mountain ridge model for quantifying oblique mountain wave propagation and distribution
Weakening of the tropical tropopause layer cold trap with global warming
On the magnitude and sensitivity of the quasi-biennial oscillation response to a tropical volcanic eruption
The response of the North Pacific jet and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of ozone over western North America to RCP8.5 climate forcing
The Holton–Tan mechanism under stratospheric aerosol intervention
Very-long-period oscillations in the atmosphere (0–110 km) – Part 2: Latitude– longitude comparisons and trends
Driving mechanisms for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation impact on stratospheric ozone
Exploring the link between austral stratospheric polar vortex anomalies and surface climate in chemistry-climate models
The impact of improved spatial and temporal resolution of reanalysis data on Lagrangian studies of the tropical tropopause layer
Dynamics of ENSO-driven stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of ozone over North America
Ozone–gravity wave interaction in the upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere
How can Brewer–Dobson circulation trends be estimated from changes in stratospheric water vapour and methane?
The semi-annual oscillation (SAO) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS)
Interactions between the stratospheric polar vortex and Atlantic circulation on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales
Impacts of three types of solar geoengineering on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Enhanced upward motion through the troposphere over the tropical western Pacific and its implications for the transport of trace gases from the troposphere to the stratosphere
Evolution of the intensity and duration of the Southern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex edge for the period 1979–2020
Characterization of transport from the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone into the UTLS via shedding of low potential vorticity cutoffs
Long-range prediction and the stratosphere
Weakening of Antarctic stratospheric planetary wave activities in early austral spring since the early 2000s: a response to sea surface temperature trends
The impact of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) sinks on age of air climatologies and trends
Specified dynamics scheme impacts on wave-mean flow dynamics, convection, and tracer transport in CESM2 (WACCM6)
Propagation paths and source distributions of resolved gravity waves in ECMWF-IFS analysis fields around the southern polar night jet
Observation and modeling of high-7Be concentration events at the surface in northern Europe associated with the instability of the Arctic polar vortex in early 2003
Eastward-propagating planetary waves in the polar middle atmosphere
The Brewer–Dobson circulation in CMIP6
Climate impact of volcanic eruptions: the sensitivity to eruption season and latitude in MPI-ESM ensemble experiments
Contributions of equatorial waves and small-scale convective gravity waves to the 2019/20 quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) disruption
Differences in the quasi-biennial oscillation response to stratospheric aerosol modification depending on injection strategy and species
The advective Brewer–Dobson circulation in the ERA5 reanalysis: climatology, variability, and trends
Is our dynamical understanding of the circulation changes associated with the Antarctic ozone hole sensitive to the choice of reanalysis dataset?
The impact of increasing stratospheric radiative damping on the quasi-biennial oscillation period
Analysis of recent lower-stratospheric ozone trends in chemistry climate models
Asymmetry and pathways of inter-hemispheric transport in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere
Effects of prescribed CMIP6 ozone on simulating the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation response to ozone depletion
Reanalysis intercomparison of potential vorticity and potential-vorticity-based diagnostics
Influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on entry stratospheric water vapor in coupled chemistry–ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models
Reappraising the appropriate calculation of a common meteorological quantity: potential temperature
Yang Li, Wuhu Feng, Xin Zhou, Yajuan Li, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8277–8293, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8277-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8277-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Tibetan Plateau (TP), the highest and largest plateau, experiences strong surface solar UV radiation, whose excess can cause harmful influences on local biota. Hence, it is critical to study TP ozone. We find ENSO, the strongest interannual phenomenon, tends to induce tropospheric temperature change and thus modulate tropopause variability, which in turn favours ozone change over the TP. Our results have implications for a better understanding of the interannual variability of TP ozone.
Luis F. Millán, Peter Hoor, Michaela I. Hegglin, Gloria L. Manney, Harald Boenisch, Paul Jeffery, Daniel Kunkel, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Hao Ye, Thierry Leblanc, and Kaley Walker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7927–7959, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7927-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7927-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In the Observed Composition Trends And Variability in the UTLS (OCTAV-UTLS) Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) activity, we have mapped multiplatform ozone datasets into coordinate systems to systematically evaluate the influence of these coordinates on binned climatological variability. This effort unifies the work of studies that focused on individual coordinate system variability. Our goal was to create the most comprehensive assessment of this topic.
Masatomo Fujiwara, Patrick Martineau, Jonathon S. Wright, Marta Abalos, Petr Šácha, Yoshio Kawatani, Sean M. Davis, Thomas Birner, and Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7873–7898, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A climatology of the major variables and terms of the transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) momentum and thermodynamic equations from four global atmospheric reanalyses is evaluated. The spread among reanalysis TEM momentum balance terms is around 10 % in Northern Hemisphere winter and up to 50 % in Southern Hemisphere winter. The largest uncertainties in the thermodynamic equation (about 50 %) are in the vertical advection, which does not show a structure consistent with the differences in heating.
Rachel W.-Y. Wu, Gabriel Chiodo, Inna Polichtchouk, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1652, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1652, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Strong variations in the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex can profoundly affect surface weather extremes, therefore, accurately predicting the stratosphere can improve surface weather forecasts. The research reveals how uncertainty in the stratosphere is linked to the troposphere. The findings suggest that refining models to better represent the identified sources and impact regions in the troposphere is likely to improve the prediction of the stratosphere and its surface impacts.
Cristina Peña-Ortiz, Nuria Pilar Plaza, David Gallego, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5457–5478, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Although water vapour (H2O) in the lower stratosphere is only a few molecules among 1 million air molecules, atmospheric radiative forcing and surface temperature are sensitive to changes in its concentration. Monsoon regions play a key role in H2O transport and its concentration in the lower stratosphere. We show how the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) has a major impact on H2O over the Asian monsoon during August through changes in temperature caused by QBO modulation of tropical clouds.
Young-Ha Kim, Georg Sebastian Voelker, Gergely Bölöni, Günther Zängl, and Ulrich Achatz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3297–3308, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3297-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3297-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The quasi-biennial oscillation, which governs the tropical stratospheric circulation, is driven primarily by small-scale wave processes. We employ a novel method to realistically represent these wave processes in a global model, thereby revealing an aspect of the oscillation that has not been identified before. We find that the oblique propagation of waves, a process neglected by existing climate models, plays a pivotal role in the stratospheric circulation and its oscillation.
Ellis Remsberg
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1691–1697, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1691-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
CH4 data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment show clear changes in the deep and shallow branches of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) from 1992 to 2005. CH4 decreased in the upper stratosphere in the early 1990s following the Pinatubo eruption. There was also meridional transport of CH4 from the tropics to mid-latitudes in both hemispheres in the late 1990s. CH4 trends in the shallow branch agree with the tropospheric CH4 trends from 1996 to 2005.
Tiehan Zhou, Kevin J. DallaSanta, Clara Orbe, David H. Rind, Jeffrey A. Jonas, Larissa Nazarenko, Gavin A. Schmidt, and Gary Russell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 509–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-509-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-509-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) tends to speed up and slow down the phase speed of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) during El Niño and La Niña, respectively. The ENSO modulation of the QBO does not show up in the climate models with parameterized but temporally constant gravity wave sources. We show that the GISS E2.2 models can capture the observed ENSO modulation of the QBO period with a horizontal resolution of 2° by 2.5° and its gravity wave sources parameterized interactively.
Helen Weierbach, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Kostas Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15491–15505, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15491-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15491-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic aerosols impact global and regional climate conditions but can vary depending on pre-existing initial climate conditions. We ran an ensemble of volcanic aerosol simulations under varying ENSO and NAO initial conditions to understand how initial climate states impact the modeled response to volcanic forcing. Overall we found that initial NAO conditions can impact the strength of the first winter post-eruptive response but are also affected by the choice of anomaly and sampling routine.
Franziska Zilker, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriel Chiodo, Marina Friedel, Tatiana Egorova, Eugene Rozanov, Jan Sedlacek, Svenja Seeber, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13387–13411, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13387-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Montreal Protocol (MP) has successfully reduced the Antarctic ozone hole by banning chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) that destroy the ozone layer. Moreover, CFCs are strong greenhouse gases (GHGs) that would have strengthened global warming. In this study, we investigate the surface weather and climate in a world without the MP at the end of the 21st century, disentangling ozone-mediated and GHG impacts of CFCs. Overall, we avoided 1.7 K global surface warming and a poleward shift in storm tracks.
Ji-Hee Yoo, Hye-Yeong Chun, and Min-Jee Kang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10869–10881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10869-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10869-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming was preceded by unusual double westerly jets with polar stratospheric and subtropical mesospheric cores. This wind structure promotes anomalous dissipation of tropospheric planetary waves between the two maxima, leading to unusually strong shear instability. Shear instability generates the westward-propagating planetary waves with zonal wavenumber 2 in situ, thereby splitting the polar vortex just before the onset.
Frederik Harzer, Hella Garny, Felix Ploeger, Harald Bönisch, Peter Hoor, and Thomas Birner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10661–10675, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10661-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We study the statistical relation between year-by-year fluctuations in winter-mean ozone and the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. In the latitude–pressure plane, regression analysis shows that anomalously weak polar vortex years are associated with three pronounced local ozone maxima over the polar cap relative to the winter climatology. These response maxima primarily reflect the non-trivial combination of different ozone transport processes with varying relative contributions.
Sebastian Rhode, Peter Preusse, Manfred Ern, Jörn Ungermann, Lukas Krasauskas, Julio Bacmeister, and Martin Riese
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7901–7934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7901-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7901-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Gravity waves (GWs) transport energy vertically and horizontally within the atmosphere and thereby affect wind speeds far from their sources. Here, we present a model that identifies orographic GW sources and predicts the pathways of the excited GWs through the atmosphere for a better understanding of horizontal GW propagation. We use this model to explain physical patterns in satellite observations (e.g., low GW activity above the Himalaya) and predict seasonal patterns of GW propagation.
Stephen Bourguet and Marianna Linz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7447–7460, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7447-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7447-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we show how projected changes to tropical circulation will impact the water vapor concentration in the lower stratosphere, which has implications for surface climate and stratospheric chemistry. In our transport scenarios with slower east–west winds, air parcels ascending into the stratosphere do not experience the same cold temperatures that they would today. This effect could act in concert with previously modeled changes to stratospheric water vapor to amplify surface warming.
Flossie Brown, Lauren Marshall, Peter H. Haynes, Rolando R. Garcia, Thomas Birner, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5335–5353, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5335-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Large-magnitude volcanic eruptions have the potential to alter large-scale circulation patterns, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO is an oscillation of the tropical stratospheric zonal winds between easterly and westerly directions. Using a climate model, we show that large-magnitude eruptions can delay the progression of the QBO, with a much longer delay when the shear is easterly than when it is westerly. Such delays may affect weather and transport of atmospheric gases.
Dillon Elsbury, Amy H. Butler, John R. Albers, Melissa L. Breeden, and Andrew O'Neil Langford
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5101–5117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5101-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
One of the global hotspots where stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) of ozone takes place is over Pacific North America (PNA). However, we do not know how or if STT over PNA will change in response to climate change. Using climate model experiments forced with
worst-casescenario Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change, we find that changes in net chemical production and transport of ozone in the lower stratosphere increase STT of ozone over PNA in the future.
Khalil Karami, Rolando Garcia, Christoph Jacobi, Jadwiga H. Richter, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3799–3818, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3799-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3799-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Alongside mitigation and adaptation efforts, stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) is increasingly considered a third pillar to combat dangerous climate change. We investigate the teleconnection between the quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere and the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex under a warmer climate and an SAI scenario. We show that the Holton–Tan relationship weakens under both scenarios and discuss the physical mechanisms responsible for such changes.
Dirk Offermann, Christoph Kalicinsky, Ralf Koppmann, and Johannes Wintel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3267–3278, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric oscillations with periods between 5 and more than 200 years are believed to be self-excited (internal) in the atmosphere, i.e. non-anthropogenic. They are found at all altitudes up to 110 km and at four very different geographical locations (75° N, 70° E; 75° N, 280° E; 50° N, 7° E; 50° S, 7° E). Therefore, they hint at a global-oscillation mode. Their amplitudes are on the order of present-day climate trends, and it is therefore difficult to disentangle them.
Samuel Benito-Barca, Natalia Calvo, and Marta Abalos
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15729–15745, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15729-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15729-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of different El Niño flavors (eastern (EP) and central (CP) Pacific El Niño) and La Niña on the stratospheric ozone is studied in a state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model. Ozone reduces in the tropics and increases in the extratropics when an EP El Niño event occurs, the opposite of La Niña. However, CP El Niño has no impact on extratropical ozone. These ozone variations are driven by changes in the stratospheric transport circulation, with an important contribution of mixing.
Nora Bergner, Marina Friedel, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Darryn Waugh, and Gabriel Chiodo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13915–13934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Polar vortex extremes, particularly situations with an unusually weak cyclonic circulation in the stratosphere, can influence the surface climate in the spring–summer time in the Southern Hemisphere. Using chemistry-climate models and observations, we evaluate the robustness of the surface impacts. While models capture the general surface response, they do not show the observed climate patterns in midlatitude regions, which we trace back to biases in the models' circulations.
Stephen Bourguet and Marianna Linz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13325–13339, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13325-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13325-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we tested the impact of spatial and temporal resolution on Lagrangian trajectory studies in a key region of interest for climate feedbacks and stratospheric chemistry. Our analysis shows that new higher-resolution input data provide an opportunity for a better understanding of physical processes that control how air moves from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Future studies of how these processes will change in a warming climate will benefit from these results.
John R. Albers, Amy H. Butler, Andrew O. Langford, Dillon Elsbury, and Melissa L. Breeden
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13035–13048, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone transported from the stratosphere contributes to background ozone concentrations in the free troposphere and to surface ozone exceedance events that affect human health. The physical processes whereby the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates North American stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone transport during spring are documented, and the usefulness of ENSO for predicting ozone events that may cause exceedances in surface air quality standards are assessed.
Axel Gabriel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10425–10441, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10425-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10425-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent measurements show some evidence that the amplitudes of atmospheric gravity waves (horizontal wavelengths of 100–2000 km), which propagate from the troposphere (0–10 km) to the stratosphere and mesosphere (10–100 km), increase more strongly with height during daytime than during nighttime. This study shows that ozone–temperature coupling in the upper stratosphere can principally produce such an amplification. The results will help to improve atmospheric circulation models.
Liubov Poshyvailo-Strube, Rolf Müller, Stephan Fueglistaler, Michaela I. Hegglin, Johannes C. Laube, C. Michael Volk, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9895–9914, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9895-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) controls the composition of the stratosphere, which in turn affects radiation and climate. As the BDC cannot be measured directly, it is necessary to infer its strength and trends indirectly. In this study, we test in the
model worlddifferent methods for estimating the mean age of air trends based on a combination of stratospheric water vapour and methane data. We also provide simple practical advice of a more reliable estimation of the mean age of air trends.
Ming Shangguan and Wuke Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9499–9511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9499-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9499-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Skilful predictions of weather and climate on subseasonal to seasonal scales are valuable for decision makers. Here we show the global spatiotemporal variation of the temperature SAO in the UTLS with GNSS RO and reanalysis data. The formation of the SAO is explained by an energy budget analysis. The results show that the SAO in the UTLS is partly modified by the SSTs according to model simulations. The results may provide an important source for seasonal predictions of the surface weather.
Oscar Dimdore-Miles, Lesley Gray, Scott Osprey, Jon Robson, Rowan Sutton, and Bablu Sinha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4867–4893, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4867-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4867-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines interactions between variations in the strength of polar stratospheric winds and circulation in the North Atlantic in a climate model simulation. It finds that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) responds with oscillations to sets of consecutive Northern Hemisphere winters, which show all strong or all weak polar vortex conditions. The study also shows that a set of strong vortex winters in the 1990s contributed to the recent slowdown in the observed AMOC.
Mengdie Xie, John C. Moore, Liyun Zhao, Michael Wolovick, and Helene Muri
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4581–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4581-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4581-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use data from six Earth system models to estimate Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) changes and its drivers under four different solar geoengineering methods. Solar dimming seems relatively more effective than marine cloud brightening or stratospheric aerosol injection at reversing greenhouse-gas-driven declines in AMOC. Geoengineering-induced AMOC amelioration is due to better maintenance of air–sea temperature differences and reduced loss of Arctic summer sea ice.
Kai Qie, Wuke Wang, Wenshou Tian, Rui Huang, Mian Xu, Tao Wang, and Yifeng Peng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4393–4411, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4393-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We identify a significantly intensified upward motion over the tropical western Pacific (TWP) and an enhanced tropical upwelling in boreal winter during 1958–2017 due to the warming of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Our results suggest that more tropospheric trace gases over the TWP could be elevated to the lower stratosphere, which implies that the emission from the maritime continent plays a more important role in the stratospheric processes and the global climate.
Audrey Lecouffe, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Andrea Pazmiño, and Alain Hauchecorne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4187–4200, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4187-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4187-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a model developped at LATMOS (France) to analyze the behavior of the Antarctic polar vortex from 1979 to 2020 at 675 K, 550 K, and 475 K isentropic levels. We found that the vortex edge intensity is stronger during the September–October–November period, while its edge position is less extended during this period. The polar vortex is stronger and lasts longer during solar minimum years. Breakup dates of the polar vortex are linked to the ozone hole and maximum wind speed.
Jan Clemens, Felix Ploeger, Paul Konopka, Raphael Portmann, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3841–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3841-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3841-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Highly polluted air flows from the surface to higher levels of the atmosphere during the Asian summer monsoon. At high levels, the air is trapped within eddies. Here, we study how air masses can leave the eddy within its cutoff, how they distribute, and how their chemical composition changes. We found evidence for transport from the eddy to higher latitudes over the North Pacific and even Alaska. During transport, trace gas concentrations within cutoffs changed gradually, showing steady mixing.
Adam A. Scaife, Mark P. Baldwin, Amy H. Butler, Andrew J. Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Steven C. Hardiman, Peter Haynes, Alexey Yu Karpechko, Eun-Pa Lim, Shunsuke Noguchi, Judith Perlwitz, Lorenzo Polvani, Jadwiga H. Richter, John Scinocca, Michael Sigmond, Theodore G. Shepherd, Seok-Woo Son, and David W. J. Thompson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2601–2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Great progress has been made in computer modelling and simulation of the whole climate system, including the stratosphere. Since the late 20th century we also gained a much clearer understanding of how the stratosphere interacts with the lower atmosphere. The latest generation of numerical prediction systems now explicitly represents the stratosphere and its interaction with surface climate, and here we review its role in long-range predictions and projections from weeks to decades ahead.
Yihang Hu, Wenshou Tian, Jiankai Zhang, Tao Wang, and Mian Xu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1575–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1575-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic stratospheric wave activities in September have been weakening significantly since the 2000s. Further analysis supports the finding that sea surface temperature (SST) trends over 20° N–70° S lead to the weakening of stratospheric wave activities, while the response of stratospheric wave activities to ozone recovery is weak. Thus, the SST trend should be taken into consideration when exploring the mechanism for the climate transition in the southern hemispheric stratosphere around 2000.
Sheena Loeffel, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Thomas Reddmann, Frauke Fritsch, Stefan Versick, Gabriele Stiller, and Florian Haenel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1175–1193, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1175-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1175-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
SF6-derived trends of stratospheric AoA from observations and model simulations disagree in sign. SF6 experiences chemical degradation, which we explicitly integrate in a global climate model. In our simulations, the AoA trend changes sign when SF6 sinks are considered; thus, the process has the potential to reconcile simulated with observed AoA trends. We show that the positive AoA trend is due to the SF6 sinks themselves and provide a first approach for a correction to account for SF6 loss.
Nicholas A. Davis, Patrick Callaghan, Isla R. Simpson, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 197–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-197-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-197-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Specified dynamics schemes attempt to constrain the atmospheric circulation in a climate model to isolate the role of transport in chemical variability, evaluate model physics, and interpret field campaign observations. We show that the specified dynamics scheme in CESM2 erroneously suppresses convection and induces circulation errors that project onto errors in tracers, even using the most optimal settings. Development of a more sophisticated scheme is necessary for future progress.
Cornelia Strube, Peter Preusse, Manfred Ern, and Martin Riese
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18641–18668, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18641-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18641-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
High gravity wave (GW) momentum fluxes in the lower stratospheric southern polar vortex around 60° S are still poorly understood. Few GW sources are found at these latitudes. We present a ray tracing case study on waves resolved in high-resolution global model temperatures southeast of New Zealand. We show that lateral propagation of more than 1000 km takes place below 20 km altitude, and a variety of orographic and non-orographic sources located north of 50° S generate the wave field.
Erika Brattich, Hongyu Liu, Bo Zhang, Miguel Ángel Hernández-Ceballos, Jussi Paatero, Darko Sarvan, Vladimir Djurdjevic, Laura Tositti, and Jelena Ajtić
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17927–17951, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17927-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17927-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we analyse the output of a chemistry and transport model together with observations of different meteorological and compositional variables to demonstrate the link between sudden stratospheric warming and transport of stratospheric air to the surface in the subpolar regions of Europe during the cold season. Our findings have particular implications for atmospheric composition since climate projections indicate more frequent sudden stratospheric warming under a warmer climate.
Liang Tang, Sheng-Yang Gu, and Xian-Kang Dou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17495–17512, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17495-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17495-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores the variation in the occurrence date, peak amplitude and wave period for eastward waves and the role of instability, background wind structure and the critical layer in eastward wave propagation and amplification.
Marta Abalos, Natalia Calvo, Samuel Benito-Barca, Hella Garny, Steven C. Hardiman, Pu Lin, Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, Rolando Garcia, Clara Orbe, David Saint-Martin, Shingo Watanabe, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13571–13591, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13571-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13571-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), responsible for transporting mass, tracers and heat globally in the stratosphere, is evaluated in a set of state-of-the-art climate models. The acceleration of the BDC in response to increasing greenhouse gases is most robust in the lower stratosphere. At higher levels, the well-known inconsistency between model and observational BDC trends can be partly reconciled by accounting for limited sampling and large uncertainties in the observations.
Zhihong Zhuo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, and Ulrich Cubasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13425–13442, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of volcanic eruptions varies with eruption season and latitude. This study simulated eruptions at different latitudes and in different seasons with a fully coupled climate model. The climate impacts of northern and southern hemispheric eruptions are reversed but are insensitive to eruption season. Results suggest that the regional climate impacts are due to the dynamical response of the climate system to radiative effects of volcanic aerosols and the subsequent regional feedbacks.
Min-Jee Kang and Hye-Yeong Chun
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9839–9857, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9839-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9839-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In winter 2019/20, the westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phase was disrupted again by easterly winds. It is found that strong Rossby waves from the Southern Hemisphere weaken the jet core in early stages, and strong mixed Rossby–gravity waves reverse the wind in later stages. Inertia–gravity waves and small-scale convective gravity waves also provide negative forcing. These strong waves are attributed to an anomalous wind profile, barotropic instability, and slightly strong convection.
Henning Franke, Ulrike Niemeier, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8615–8635, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8615-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol modification (SAM) can alter the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Our simulations with two different models show that the characteristics of the QBO response are primarily determined by the meridional structure of the aerosol-induced heating. Therefore, the QBO response to SAM depends primarily on the location of injection, while injection type and rate act to scale the specific response. Our results have important implications for evaluating adverse side effects of SAM.
Mohamadou Diallo, Manfred Ern, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7515–7544, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7515-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7515-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Despite good agreement in the spatial structure, there are substantial differences in the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) and its modulations in the UTLS and upper stratosphere. The tropical upwelling is generally weaker in ERA5 than in ERAI due to weaker planetary and gravity wave breaking in the UTLS. Analysis of the BDC trend shows an acceleration of the BDC of about 1.5 % decade-1 due to the long-term intensification in wave breaking, consistent with climate predictions.
Andrew Orr, Hua Lu, Patrick Martineau, Edwin P. Gerber, Gareth J. Marshall, and Thomas J. Bracegirdle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7451–7472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7451-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7451-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Reanalysis datasets combine observations and weather forecast simulations to create our best estimate of the state of the atmosphere and are important for climate monitoring. Differences in the technical details of these products mean that they may give different results. This study therefore examined how changes associated with the so-called Antarctic ozone hole are represented, which is one of the most important climate changes in recent decades, and showed that they were broadly consistent.
Tiehan Zhou, Kevin DallaSanta, Larissa Nazarenko, Gavin A. Schmidt, and Zhonghai Jin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7395–7407, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7395-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7395-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric radiative damping increases with rising CO2. Sensitivity experiments using the one-dimensional mechanistic models of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) indicate a shortening of the simulated QBO period due to the enhancing of the radiative damping. This result suggests that increasing radiative damping may play a role in determining the QBO period in a warming climate along with wave momentum flux entering the stratosphere and tropical vertical residual velocity.
Simone Dietmüller, Hella Garny, Roland Eichinger, and William T. Ball
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6811–6837, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6811-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6811-2021, 2021
Xiaolu Yan, Paul Konopka, Marius Hauck, Aurélien Podglajen, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6627–6645, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6627-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6627-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Inter-hemispheric transport is important for understanding atmospheric tracers because of the asymmetry in emissions between the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and Northern Hemisphere (NH). This study finds that the air masses from the NH extratropics to the atmosphere are about 5 times larger than those from the SH extratropics. The interplay between the Asian summer monsoon and westerly ducts triggers the cross-Equator transport from the NH to the SH in boreal summer and fall.
Ioana Ivanciu, Katja Matthes, Sebastian Wahl, Jan Harlaß, and Arne Biastoch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5777–5806, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ozone hole has driven substantial dynamical changes in the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere over the past decades. This study separates the historical impacts of ozone depletion from those of rising levels of greenhouse gases and investigates how these impacts are captured in two types of climate models: one using interactive atmospheric chemistry and one prescribing the CMIP6 ozone field. The effects of ozone depletion are more pronounced in the model with interactive chemistry.
Luis F. Millán, Gloria L. Manney, and Zachary D. Lawrence
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5355–5376, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5355-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5355-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We assess how consistently reanalyses represent potential vorticity (PV) among each other. PV helps describe dynamical processes in the stratosphere because it acts approximately as a tracer of the movement of air parcels; it is extensively used to identify the location of the tropopause and to identify and characterize the stratospheric polar vortex. Overall, PV from all reanalyses agrees well with the reanalysis ensemble mean.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Ohad Harari, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Jian Rao, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Fiona M. O'Connor, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, and Sean Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3725–3740, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, and El Niño is the dominant mode of variability in the ocean–atmosphere system. The connection between El Niño and water vapor above ~ 17 km is unclear, with single-model studies reaching a range of conclusions. This study examines this connection in 12 different models. While there are substantial differences among the models, all models appear to capture the fundamental physical processes correctly.
Manuel Baumgartner, Ralf Weigel, Allan H. Harvey, Felix Plöger, Ulrich Achatz, and Peter Spichtinger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15585–15616, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15585-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15585-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The potential temperature is routinely used in atmospheric science. We review its derivation and suggest a new potential temperature, based on a temperature-dependent parameterization of the dry air's specific heat capacity. Moreover, we compare the new potential temperature to the common one and discuss the differences which become more important at higher altitudes. Finally, we indicate some consequences of using the new potential temperature in typical applications.
Cited articles
Birner, T. and Albers, J. R.: Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and Anomalous
Upward Wave Activity Flux, Sci. Online Lett. Atmos., 13A, 8–12,
https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.13A-002, 2017. a
Butler, A. H., Sjoberg, J. P., Seidel, D. J., and Rosenlof, K. H.: A sudden stratospheric warming compendium, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 63–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-63-2017, 2017. a
Charlton-Perez, A. J., Baldwin, M. P., Birner, T., Black, R. X., Butler, A. H.,
Calvo, N., Davis, N. A., Gerber, E. P., Gillett, N., Hardiman, S., Kim, J.,
Krüger, K., Lee, Y.-Y., Manzini, E., McDaniel, B. A., Polvani, L., Reichler,
T., Shaw, T. A., Sigmond, M., Son, S.-W., Toohey, M., Wilcox, L., Yoden, S.,
Christiansen, B., Lott, F., Shindell, D., Yukimoto, S., and Watanabe, S.:
On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low-top versions of the
CMIP5 models, J. Geophys. Res., 118, 2494–2505, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50125,
2013. a
Compo, G. P., Whitaker, J. S., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Matsui, N., Allan, R. J.,
Yin, X., Gleason, B. E., Vose, R. S., Rutledge, G., Bessemoulin, P.,
Brönnimann, S., Brunet, M., Crouthamel, R. I., Grant, A. N., Groisman,
P. Y., Jones, P. D., Kruk, M. C., Kruger, A. C., Marshall, G. J., Maugeri,
M., Mok, H. Y., Nordli., Ø., Ross, T. F., Trigo, R. M., Wang, X. L.,
Woodruff, S. D., and Worley, S. J.: The twentieth century reanalysis project,
Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1–28, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.776, 2011. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi,
S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P.,
Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C.,
Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B.,
Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M.,
Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park,
B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and
Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of
the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a
Deser, C., Simpson, I. R., McKinnon, K. A., and Phillips, A. S.: The Northern
Hemisphere extra-tropical atmospheric circulation response to ENSO: How well
do we know it and how do we evaluate models accordingly?, J. Clim., 30,
5059–5082, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0844.1, 2017. a
Dunn-Sigouin, E. and Shaw, T. A.: Comparing and contrasting extreme
stratospheric events, including their coupling to the tropospheric
circulation, J. Geophys. Res., 120, 1374–1390, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022116,
2014. a
Fujiwara, M., Wright, J. S., Manney, G. L., Gray, L. J., Anstey, J., Birner,
T., Davis, S., Gerber, E. P., Harvey, V. L., Hegglin, M. I., Homeyer, C. R.,
Knox, J. A., Krüger, K., Lambert, A., Long, C. S., Martineau, P., Molod,
A., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Santee, M. L., Tegtmeier, S., Chabrillat, S., Tan, D.
G. H., Jackson, D. R., Polavarapu, S., Compo, G. P., Dragani, R., Ebisuzaki,
W., Harada, Y., Kobayashi, C., McCarty, W., Onogi, K., Pawson, S., Simmons,
A., Wargan, K., Whitaker, J. S., and Zou, C.-Z.: Introduction to the SPARC
Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) and overview of the reanalysis
systems, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1417–1452,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1417-2017, 2017. a, b, c, d, e
Gelaro, R., McCarty, W., Suárez, M. J., Todling, R., Molod, A., Takacs, L.,
Randles, C. A., Darmenov, A., Bosilovich, M. G., Reichle, R., Wargan, K.,
Coy, L., Cullather, R., Draper, C., Akella, S., Buchard, V., Conaty, A.,
da Silva, A. M., Gu, W., Kim, G.-K., Koster, R., Lucchesi, R., Merkova, D.,
Nielsen, J. E., Partyka, G., Pawson, S., Putman, W., Rienecker, M., Schubert,
S. D., Sienkiewicz, M., and Zhao, B.: The Modern-Era Retrospective
Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), J.
Clim., 30, 5419–5454, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0758.1, 2017. a
Gerber, E. P. and Martineau, P.: Quantifying the variability of the annular
modes: reanalysis uncertainty vs. sampling uncertainty, Atmos. Chem. Phys.,
18, 17099–17117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17099-2018, 2018. a, b, c
Gómez-Escola, M., Fueglistaler, S., Calvo, N., and Barriopedro, D.: Changes
in polar stratospheric temperature climatology in relation to stratospheric
sudden warming occurrence, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L22802,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053632, 2012. a
Hersbach, H., Brönnimann, S., Haimberger, L., Mayer, M., Villiger, L.,
Comeaux, J., Simmons, A., Dee, D., Jourdain, S., Peubey, C., Poli, P.,
Rayner, N., Sterin, A. M., Stickler, A., Valente, M. A., and Worley, S. J.:
The potential value of early (1939–1967) upper-air data in atmospheric
climate reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 143, 1197–1210,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3040, 2017. a, b, c
Hitchcock, P. and Simpson, I. R.: The downward influence of stratospheric
sudden warmings, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 3856–3876,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-14-0012.1, 2014. a
Hitchcock, P. and Simpson, I. R.: Quantifying forcings and feedbacks following
stratospheric sudden warmings, J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 3641–3657,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0056.1, 2016. a
Hitchcock, P., Shepherd, T. G., and Manney, G. L.: Statistical characterization
of Arctic Polar-night Jet Oscillation events, J. Clim., 26,
2096–2116, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00202.1, 2013. a
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L.,
Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Leetmaa, A.,
Reynolds, R., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo,
K. C., Ropelewski, C., Wang, J., Jenne, R., and Joseph, D.: The NCEP/NCAR
40-year reanalysis project, B. Am. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437–471, 1996. a
Kanamitsu, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Woollen, J., Yang, S.-K., Hnilo, J. J., Fiorino,
M., and Potter, G. L.: NCEP–DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2), B. Am.
Meteor. Soc., 83, 1631–1643, 2002. a
Kawatani, Y., Hamilton, K., Miyazaki, K., Fujiwara, M., and Anstey, J. A.:
Representation of the tropical stratospheric zonal wind in global atmospheric
reanalyses, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6681–6699,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6681-2016, 2016. a
Kobayashi, C., Endo, H., Ota, Y., Kobayashi, S., Onoda, H., Harada, Y., Onogi,
K., and Kamahori, H.: Preliminary results of the JRA-55C, an atmospheric
reanalysis assimilating conventional observations only, Sci. Online Lett.
Atmos., 10, 78–82, https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2014-016, 2014. a
Kobayashi, S., Ota, Y., Harada, Y., Ebita, A., Moriya, M., Onoda, H., Onogi,
K., Kamahori, H., Kobayashi, C., Endo, H., Miyaoka, K., and Takahashi, K.:
The JRA-55 reanalysis: general specifications and basic characteristics, J.
Meteor. Soc. Japan, 93, 5–48, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-001, 2015. a
Kodera, K., Mukougawa, H., Maury, P., Ueda, M., and Claud, C.: Absorbing and
reflecting sudden stratospheric warming events and their relationship with
tropospheric circulation, J. Geophys. Res., 121, 80–94, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023359, 2015. a
Labitzke, K.: Interannual variability of the winter stratosphere in the
Northern Hemisphere, Mon. Weather Rev., 105, 762–770, 1977. a
Lehtonen, I. and Karpechko, A. Y.: Observed and modeled tropospheric cold
anomalies associated with sudden stratospheric warmings, J. Geophys. Res.,
121, 1591–1610, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023860, 2016. a, b
Long, C. S., Fujiwara, M., Davis, S., Mitchell, D. M., and Wright, C. J.:
Climatology and interannual variability of dynamic variables in multiple
reanalyses evaluated by the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP),
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14593–14629,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14593-2017, 2017. a, b
Manzini, E., Karpechko, A. Y., Anstey, J., Baldwin, M. P., Black, R. X.,
Cagnazzo, C., Calvo, N., Charlton-Perez, A., Christiansen, B., Davini, P.,
Gerber, E., Giorgetta, M., Gray, L., Hardiman, S. C., Lee, Y.-Y., Marsh,
D. R., McDaniel, B. A., Purich, A., Scaife, A. A., Shindell, D., Son, S.-W.,
Watanabe, S., and Zappa, G.: Northern winter climate change: Assessment of
uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere
coupling, J. Geophys. Res., 119, 7979–7998, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021403,
2014. a, b
Martineau, P.: Zonal-mean dynamical variables of global atmospheric reanalyses on pressure levels, https://doi.org/10.5285/b241a7f536a244749662360bd7839312, 2017. a, b
Martineau, P., Wright, J. S., Zhu, N., and Fujiwara, M.: Zonal-mean data set
of global atmospheric reanalyses on pressure levels, Earth Syst. Sci. Data,
10, 1925–1941, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1925-2018, 2018. a
Matsuno, T.: A Dynamical model of the stratospheric sudden warming, J. Atmos.
Sci., 28, 1479–1494, 1971. a
McIntyre, M. E.: How well do we understand the dynamics of stratospheric
warmings?, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 60, 37–65, 1982. a
Mitchell, D. M., Gray, L. J., Anstey, J., Baldwin, M. P., and Charlton-Perez,
A. J.: The Influence of Stratospheric Vortex Displacements and Splits on
Surface Climate, J. Clim., 26, 2668–2682, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00030.1,
2013. a
Onogi, K., Tsutsui, J., Koide, H., Sakamoto, M., Kobayashi, S., Hatsushika, H.,
Matsumoto, T., Yamazaki, N., Kamahori, H., Takahashi, K., Kadokura, S., Wada,
K., Kato, K., Oyama, R., Ose, T., Mannoji, N., and Taira, R.: The JRA-25
reanalysis, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 85, 369–432, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.85.369,
2007. a
Poli, P., Hersbach, H., Tan, D., Dee, D., Thépaut, J.-N., Simmons, A.,
Peubey, C., Laloyaux, P., Komori, T., Berrisford, P., Dragani, R.,
Trémolet, Y., Holm, E., Bonavita, M., Isaksen, L., and Fisher, M.: The
Data Assimilation System and Initial Performance Evaluation of the ECMWF
Pilot Reanalysis of the 20th Century Assimilating Surface Observations Only
(ERA-20C), Tech. Rep. 14, ECMWF, Reading, UK, 2013. a
Randel, W., Udelhofen, P., Fleming, E., Geller, M., Gelman, M., Hamilton, K.,
Karoly, D., Ortland, D., Pawson, S., Swinbank, R., Wu, F., Baldwin, M.,
Chanin, M.-L., Keckhut, P., Labitzke, K., Remsberg, E., Simmons, A., and Wu,
D.: The SPARC Intercomparison of Middle-Atmosphere Climatologies, J. Clim.,
17, 986–1003, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0986:TSIOMC>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Rienecker, M. M., Suarez, M. J., Gelaro, R., Todling, R., Bacmeister, J., Liu,
E., Bosilovich, M. G., Schubert, S. D., Takacs, L., Kim, G.-K., Bloom, S.,
Chen, J., Collins, D., Conaty, A., da Silva, A., Gu, W., Joiner, J., Koster,
R. D., Lucchesi, R., Molod, A., Owens, T., Pawson, S., Pegion, P., Redder,
C. R., Reichle, R., Robertson, F. R., Ruddick, A. G., Sienkiewicz, M., and
Woollen, J.: MERRA: NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for
Research and Applications, J. Clim., 24, 3624–3648,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00015.1, 2011. a
Saha, S., Moorthi, S., Pan, H.-L., Wu, X., Wang, J., Nadiga, S., Tripp, P.,
Kistler, R., Woollen, J., Behringer, D., Liu, H., Stokes, D., Grumbine, R.,
Gayno, G., Wang, J., Hou, Y.-T., Chuang, H.-Y., Juang, H.-M. H., Sela, J.,
Iredell, M., Treadon, R., Kleist, D., van Delst, P., Keyser, D., Derber, J.,
Ek, M., Meng, J., Wei, H., Yang, R., Lord, S., van den Dool, H., Kumar, A.,
Wang, W., Long, C., Chelliah, M., Xue, Y., Huang, B., Schemm, J.-K.,
Ebisuzaki, W., Lin, R., Xie, P., Chen, M., Zhou, S., Higgins, W., Zou, C.-Z.,
Liu, Q., Chen, Y., Han, Y., Cucurull, L., Reynolds, R. W., Rutledge, G.,
and Goldberg, M.: The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis, B. Am.
Meteor. Soc., 91, 1015–1057, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1, 2010. a
Scherhag, R.: Die explosionsartigen Stratosphärenerwärmungen des
Spätwinters, Ber. Dtsch. Wetterdienst (US Zone), 6, 51–63, 1952. a
Sigmond, M., Scinocca, J. F., Kharin, V. V., and Shepherd, T. G.: Enhanced
seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings, Nat.
Geosci., 6, 98–102, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO1698, 2013. a
Simmons, A., Hortal, M., Kelly, G., McNally, A., Untch, A., and Uppala, S.:
ECMWF Analyses and Forecasts of Stratospheric Winter Polar Vortex Breakup:
September 2002 in the Southern Hemisphere and Related Events, J. Atmos.
Sci., 62, 668–689, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-3322.1, 2005.
a
Simpson, I. R., Hitchcock, P., Seager, R., and Wu, Y.: The downward influence
of uncertainty in the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex response
to climate change, J. Clim., 31, 6371–6391, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0041.1,
2018. a
Taguchi, M.: A study of different frequencies of major stratospheric sudden
warmings in CMIP5 historical simulations, J. Geophys. Res., 122, 5144–5156,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025826, 2017. a
Uppala, S. M., Kållberg, P. W., Simmons, A. J., Andrae, U., Bechtold, V.
D. C., Fiorino, M., Gibson, J. K., Haseler, J., Hernandez, A., Kelly, G. A.,
Li, X., Onogi, K., Saarinen, S., Sokka, N., Allan, R. P., Andersson, E.,
Arpe, K., Balmaseda, M. A., Beljaars, A. C., Berg, L. V. D., Bidlot, J.,
Bormann, N., Caires, S., Chevallier, F., Dethof, A., Dragosavac, M., Fisher,
M., Fuentes, M., Hagemann, S., Hólm, E., Hoskins, B. J., Isaksen, L.,
Janssen, P. A. E. M., Jenne, R., Mcnally, A. P., Mahfouf, J.-F., Morcrette,
J.-J., Rayner, N. A., Saunders, R. W., Simon, P., Sterl, A., Trenberth,
K. E., Untch, A., Vasiljevic, D., Viterbo, P., and Woollen, J.: The ERA-40
reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 2961–3012,
https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.176, 2005. a, b
Short summary
Studies of the dynamics of stratosphere–troposphere coupling benefit from long observational records in order to distinguish common dynamical features from unrelated atmospheric variability. On the basis of a comparison between a range of reanalysis products, this study argues that the period from 1958 to 1979 is of significant value in the Northern Hemisphere for this purpose, despite the lack of global satellite records.
Studies of the dynamics of stratosphere–troposphere coupling benefit from long observational...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint