Articles | Volume 18, issue 17
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13265-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13265-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Sep 2018
Research article |
| 14 Sep 2018
| 14 Sep 2018
Changes in the aerosol direct radiative forcing from 2001 to 2015: observational constraints and regional mechanisms
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
David Paynter
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Paul Ginoux
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Vaishali Naik
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Larry W. Horowitz
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Related authors
Srinath Krishnan, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Maria Sand, Marit Sandstad, Hannah Bryant, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Fabien Paulot, Michael Prather, and David Stevenson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 9509–9539, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-9509-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-9509-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrogen (H2) is an indirect greenhouse gas that can affect climate through chemical reactions in the atmosphere. To better understand this impact, it is important to constrain the sources and sinks of hydrogen. Using a suite of three-dimensional and one-dimensional models, we find that atmospheric production of hydrogen is 37–60 Tg/yr and that the geological source of H2 is much smaller than suggested. More field and isotopic measurements are needed to improve these estimates.
Stephanie Fiedler, Fiona M. O'Connor, Duncan Watson-Parris, Robert J. Allen, William J. Collins, Paul T. Griffiths, Matthew Kasoar, Jarmo Kikstra, Jasper F. Kok, Lee T. Murray, Fabien Paulot, Maria Sand, Steven T. Turnock, James Weber, Laura J. Wilcox, and Vaishali Naik
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 3477–3508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3477-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3477-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project phase two (AerChemMIP2) allows the community to compare results from contemporary Earth system models. AerChemMIP2 is asking modelling centres to perform experiments following the same protocol. It includes experiments for enabling new science and for tracking progress. Model output will be used for addressing research and policy questions about anthropogenic and natural drivers of climate change, and the impacts on air quality.
Gunnar Myhre, Øivind Hodnebrog, Srinath Krishnan, Maria Sand, Marit Sandstad, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Lieven Clarisse, Bruno Franco, Dylan B. Millet, Kelley C. Wells, Alexander Archibald, Hannah N. Bryant, Alex T. Chaudhri, David S. Stevenson, Didier Hauglustaine, Michael Prather, J. Christopher Kaiser, Dirk J. L. Olivie, Michael Schulz, Oliver Wild, Ye Wang, Thérèse Salameh, Jason E. Williams, Philippe Le Sager, Fabien Paulot, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Haley E. Plaas
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2577–2591, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2577-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2577-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) affect air quality and climate, but their behavior in the atmosphere is still uncertain. We launched a global research effort to compare how different models represent these compounds and to improve their accuracy. By analyzing model results alongside observations and satellite data, we aim to better understand the atmospheric composition of these compounds.
Fabien Paulot, Gabrielle Pétron, Andrew M. Crotwell, and Matteo B. Bertagni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4217–4229, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
New data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show that hydrogen (H2) concentrations increased from 2010 to 2019, which is consistent with the simulated increase in H2 photochemical production (mainly from methane). But this cannot be reconciled with the expected decrease (increase) in H2 anthropogenic emissions (soil deposition) in the same period. This shows gaps in our knowledge of the H2 biogeochemical cycle that must be resolved to quantify the impact of higher H2 usage.
Weiyi Tang, Bess B. Ward, Michael Beman, Laura Bristow, Darren Clark, Sarah Fawcett, Claudia Frey, François Fripiat, Gerhard J. Herndl, Mhlangabezi Mdutyana, Fabien Paulot, Xuefeng Peng, Alyson E. Santoro, Takuhei Shiozaki, Eva Sintes, Charles Stock, Xin Sun, Xianhui S. Wan, Min N. Xu, and Yao Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5039–5077, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5039-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5039-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrification and nitrifiers play an important role in marine nitrogen and carbon cycles by converting ammonium to nitrite and nitrate. Nitrification could affect microbial community structure, marine productivity, and the production of nitrous oxide – a powerful greenhouse gas. We introduce the newly constructed database of nitrification and nitrifiers in the marine water column and guide future research efforts in field observations and model development of nitrification.
Johannes Quaas, Hailing Jia, Chris Smith, Anna Lea Albright, Wenche Aas, Nicolas Bellouin, Olivier Boucher, Marie Doutriaux-Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Daniel Grosvenor, Stuart Jenkins, Zbigniew Klimont, Norman G. Loeb, Xiaoyan Ma, Vaishali Naik, Fabien Paulot, Philip Stier, Martin Wild, Gunnar Myhre, and Michael Schulz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12221–12239, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Pollution particles cool climate and offset part of the global warming. However, they are washed out by rain and thus their effect responds quickly to changes in emissions. We show multiple datasets to demonstrate that aerosol emissions and their concentrations declined in many regions influenced by human emissions, as did the effects on clouds. Consequently, the cooling impact on the Earth energy budget became smaller. This change in trend implies a relative warming.
Jianyu Zheng, Hongbin Yu, Chamara Rajapakse, Mian Chin, Michael Schulz, Yves Balkanski, Susanne E. Bauer, Huisheng Bian, Peter Colarco, Dongchul Kim, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Yevgeny Derimian, Oleg Dubovik, Paul Ginoux, Zak Kipling, Jasper F. Kok, Harri Kokkola, Philippe Le Sager, Lei Li, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Gunnar Myhre, Hitoshi Matsui, Dirk J. L. Olivie, Samuel Remy, Oyvind Seland, Qianqian Song, Toshihiko Takemura, Qian Tan, Kostas Tsigaridis, Twan van Noije, David Winker, Bin Xie, Hua Zhang, Xindan Zhang, and Zhibo Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4322, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
Winds carry vast amounts of Saharan dust across the Atlantic Ocean, influencing climate, air quality, and ocean ecosystems. Within the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project, we evaluated 17 numerical models against observations. Models deposit dust too quickly, so too little reaches the Caribbean. Better simulations require emitting larger particles, treating their non-spherical shapes, and capturing processes that keep dust aloft during transport.
Srinath Krishnan, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Maria Sand, Marit Sandstad, Hannah Bryant, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Fabien Paulot, Michael Prather, and David Stevenson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 9509–9539, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-9509-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-9509-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrogen (H2) is an indirect greenhouse gas that can affect climate through chemical reactions in the atmosphere. To better understand this impact, it is important to constrain the sources and sinks of hydrogen. Using a suite of three-dimensional and one-dimensional models, we find that atmospheric production of hydrogen is 37–60 Tg/yr and that the geological source of H2 is much smaller than suggested. More field and isotopic measurements are needed to improve these estimates.
Alkiviadis Kalisoras, Prodromos Zanis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Dimitris Akritidis, Robert J. Allen, and Vaishali Naik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 9413–9441, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-9413-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-9413-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The Mediterranean region has experienced enhanced warming in the last decades resulting from emission changes of anthropogenic aerosols. In this work, we investigate changes in near-surface temperature over the Mediterranean throughout 1850–2014 using climate model simulations and try to connect them with changes in the Earth's radiative budget and atmospheric circulation.
Thomas J. Aubry, Matthew Toohey, Sujan Khanal, Man Mei Chim, Magali Verkerk, Ben Johnson, Anja Schmidt, Mahesh Kovilakam, Michael Sigl, Zebedee Nicholls, Larry Thomason, Vaishali Naik, Landon Rieger, Dominik Stiller, Elisa Ziegler, Paul Durack, and Isabel H. Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 3725–3756, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3725-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3725-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Climate forcings, such as solar radiation or anthropogenic greenhouse gases, are required to run global climate model simulations. Stratospheric aerosols, which mostly originate from large volcanic eruptions, are a key natural forcing. In this paper, we document the stratospheric aerosol forcing dataset that will feed the next generation (CMIP7) of climate models. Our dataset is very different from its predecessor (CMIP6), which might affect simulations of the 1850–2021 climate.
Mian Chin, Jonathon S. Wright, Huisheng Bian, Qian Tan, Xiaohua Pan, Toshihiko Takemura, Hitoshi Matsui, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne Bauer, Paul Ginoux, Yiran Peng, Zengyuan Guo, Suvarna Fadnavis, Anton Laakso, John P. Burrows, Ghassan Taha, Jayanta Kar, Alexei Rozanov, Carlo Arosio, Landon Rieger, and Adam Bourassa
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 6035–6059, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6035-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6035-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols in the upper troposphere influence weather and climate. The Asian summer monsoon efficiently transports surface pollutants upward, shaping aerosol amounts and variability in the upper troposphere. Using multiple global models, this study finds a summertime increase in upper-tropospheric aerosols at 1.2 % per year from 2000 to 2018 over Asia, consistent with rising pollutant emissions in Asia, while year-to-year changes are mainly driven by climate variability affecting monsoon dynamics.
Stephanie Fiedler, Fiona M. O'Connor, Duncan Watson-Parris, Robert J. Allen, William J. Collins, Paul T. Griffiths, Matthew Kasoar, Jarmo Kikstra, Jasper F. Kok, Lee T. Murray, Fabien Paulot, Maria Sand, Steven T. Turnock, James Weber, Laura J. Wilcox, and Vaishali Naik
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 3477–3508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3477-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3477-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project phase two (AerChemMIP2) allows the community to compare results from contemporary Earth system models. AerChemMIP2 is asking modelling centres to perform experiments following the same protocol. It includes experiments for enabling new science and for tracking progress. Model output will be used for addressing research and policy questions about anthropogenic and natural drivers of climate change, and the impacts on air quality.
Gunnar Myhre, Øivind Hodnebrog, Srinath Krishnan, Maria Sand, Marit Sandstad, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Lieven Clarisse, Bruno Franco, Dylan B. Millet, Kelley C. Wells, Alexander Archibald, Hannah N. Bryant, Alex T. Chaudhri, David S. Stevenson, Didier Hauglustaine, Michael Prather, J. Christopher Kaiser, Dirk J. L. Olivie, Michael Schulz, Oliver Wild, Ye Wang, Thérèse Salameh, Jason E. Williams, Philippe Le Sager, Fabien Paulot, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Haley E. Plaas
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2577–2591, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2577-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2577-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) affect air quality and climate, but their behavior in the atmosphere is still uncertain. We launched a global research effort to compare how different models represent these compounds and to improve their accuracy. By analyzing model results alongside observations and satellite data, we aim to better understand the atmospheric composition of these compounds.
William J. Collins, John S. Daniel, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Martin Cussac, Makoto Deushi, Gregory Faluvegi, Paul Griffiths, Øivind Hodnebrog, Larry W. Horowitz, James Keeble, Douglas Kinnison, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Drew Shindell, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Zihao Wang, and James Weber
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6033, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6033, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone depleting substances (ODSs) are also greenhouse gases that cause global warming. However, their destruction of ozone contributes a global cooling. We have used results from climate models that include atmospheric chemistry and found that the cooling effect of the ozone depletion diagnosed in the models was larger than that calculated using a standard method. We find that some ODSs have a net cooling effect whereas for others the warming effect is significantly reduced.
Xiaohan Li, Songmiao Fan, Huan Guo, and Paul Ginoux
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 95–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-95-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-95-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We used computer simulations to show that soot from wildfires and human activities has a bigger impact on high-altitude clouds than previously known. These particles create more ice crystals, which leads to a net warming effect on the climate in polar regions. Understanding this process is crucial for making accurate climate predictions as global wildfire activity increases.
John P. Dunne, Helene T. Hewitt, Julie M. Arblaster, Frédéric Bonou, Olivier Boucher, Tereza Cavazos, Beth Dingley, Paul J. Durack, Birgit Hassler, Martin Juckes, Tomoki Miyakawa, Matt Mizielinski, Vaishali Naik, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Robert Pincus, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Isla R. Simpson, and Karl E. Taylor
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 6671–6700, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6671-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6671-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The seventh phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7) coordinates efforts to answer key and timely climate science questions and facilitate delivery of relevant multi-model simulations for prediction and projection; characterization, attribution, and process understanding; and vulnerability, impact, and adaptation analysis. Key to the CMIP7 design are the mandatory Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima and optional Assessment Fast Track experiments.
William J. Collins, Fiona M. O'Connor, Rachael E. Byrom, Øivind Hodnebrog, Patrick Jöckel, Mariano Mertens, Gunnar Myhre, Matthias Nützel, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Laura Stecher, Larry W. Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Gregory Faluvegi, Ulas Im, Lee T. Murray, Drew Shindell, Kostas Tsigaridis, Nathan Luke Abraham, and James Keeble
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 9031–9060, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9031-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9031-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used 7 climate models that include atmospheric chemistry and find that in a scenario with weak controls on air quality, the warming effects (over 2015 to 2050) of decreases in ozone-depleting substances and increases in air quality pollutants are approximately equal and would make ozone the second highest contributor to warming over this period. We find that for stratospheric ozone recovery, the standard measure of climate effects underestimates a more comprehensive measure.
Paul T. Griffiths, Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Michael Prather, Alex Archibald, Florence Brown, Makoto Deushi, William Collins, Stephanie Fiedler, Naga Oshima, Lee T. Murray, Bjørn H. Samset, Chris Smith, Steven Turnock, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Paul J. Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8289–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) aimed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. We review its contribution to AR6 (Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and the wider understanding of the role of these species in climate and climate change. We identify challenges and provide recommendations to improve the utility and uptake of climate model data, detailed summary tables of CMIP6 models, experiments, and emergent diagnostics.
Steven T. Turnock, Dimitris Akritidis, Larry Horowitz, Mariano Mertens, Andrea Pozzer, Carly L. Reddington, Hantao Wang, Putian Zhou, and Fiona O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7111–7136, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7111-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7111-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the drivers behind changes in peak-season surface ozone concentrations and risks to human health between 1850 and 2014. Substantial increases in surface ozone have occurred over this period, resulting in an increased risk to human health, driven mainly by increases in anthropogenic NOx emissions and global CH4 concentrations. Fixing anthropogenic NOx emissions at 1850 values in the near-present-day period can eliminate the risk to human health associated with exposure to surface ozone.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Christophe Cassou, Mathias Hauser, Zeke Hausfather, June-Yi Lee, Matthew D. Palmer, Karina von Schuckmann, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Sophie Szopa, Blair Trewin, Jeongeun Yun, Nathan P. Gillett, Stuart Jenkins, H. Damon Matthews, Krishnan Raghavan, Aurélien Ribes, Joeri Rogelj, Debbie Rosen, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Lara Aleluia Reis, Robbie M. Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Jiddu A. Broersma, Samantha N. Burgess, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Catia M. Domingues, Marco Gambarini, Thomas Gasser, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Aurélien Liné, Didier P. Monselesan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Jan C. Minx, Matthew Rigby, Robert Rohde, Abhishek Savita, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Peter Thorne, Christopher Wells, Luke M. Western, Guido R. van der Werf, Susan E. Wijffels, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2641–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets to track real-world changes over time. To make our work relevant to policymakers, we follow methods from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Human activities are increasing the Earth's energy imbalance and driving faster sea-level rise compared to the IPCC assessment.
Ngoc Thi Nhu Do, Kengo Sudo, Akihiko Ito, Louisa K. Emmons, Vaishali Naik, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Gerd A. Folberth, and Douglas I. Kelley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2079–2109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding historical isoprene emission changes is important for predicting future climate, but trends and their controlling factors remain uncertain. This study shows that long-term isoprene trends vary among Earth system models mainly due to partially incorporating CO2 effects and land cover changes rather than to climate. Future models that refine these factors’ effects on isoprene emissions, along with long-term observations, are essential for better understanding plant–climate interactions.
Enrico Zorzetto, Paul Ginoux, Sergey Malyshev, and Elena Shevliakova
The Cryosphere, 19, 1313–1334, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1313-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1313-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Light-absorbing particle (LAP) deposition on snow leads to a darkening of the snow surface and can thus accelerate snow melt. Understanding the extent to which different types of LAPs contribute to snow melt is important to both predict changes in water availability and improve global climate model predictions. Here, we extend a recently developed snow model to account for the deposition of LAPs in the snowpack and evaluate the effect of snow darkening on accelerating snow melt.
Manon Gaillard, Vincent Vionnet, Matthieu Lafaysse, Marie Dumont, and Paul Ginoux
The Cryosphere, 19, 769–792, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-769-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents an efficient method to improve large-scale snow albedo simulations by considering the spatial variability in light-absorbing particles (LAPs) like black carbon and dust. A global climatology of LAP deposition was created and used to optimize a parameter in the Crocus snow model. Testing at 10 global sites improved albedo predictions by 10 % on average and over 25 % in the Arctic. This method can enhance other snow models' predictions without complex simulations.
Xavier Faïn, Sophie Szopa, Vaishali Naïk, Patricia Martinerie, David M. Etheridge, Rachael H. Rhodes, Cathy M. Trudinger, Vasilii V. Petrenko, Kévin Fourteau, and Philip Place
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1105–1119, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1105-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1105-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon monoxide (CO) plays a crucial role in the atmosphere's oxidizing capacity. In this study, we analyse how historical (1850–2014) [CO] outputs from state-of-the-art global chemistry–climate models over Greenland and Antarctica are able to capture both absolute values and trends recorded in multi-site ice archives. A disparity in [CO] growth rates emerges in the Northern Hemisphere between models and observations from 1920–1975 CE, possibly linked to uncertainties in CO emission factors.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
Enrico Zorzetto, Sergey Malyshev, Paul Ginoux, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7219–7244, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7219-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a new snow scheme developed for use in global climate models, which simulates the interactions of snowpack with vegetation, atmosphere, and soil. We test the new snow model over a set of sites where in situ observations are available. We find that when compared to a simpler snow model, this model improves predictions of seasonal snow and of soil temperature under the snowpack, important variables for simulating both the hydrological cycle and the global climate system.
Adolfo González-Romero, Cristina González-Flórez, Agnesh Panta, Jesús Yus-Díez, Patricia Córdoba, Andres Alastuey, Natalia Moreno, Melani Hernández-Chiriboga, Konrad Kandler, Martina Klose, Roger N. Clark, Bethany L. Ehlmann, Rebecca N. Greenberger, Abigail M. Keebler, Phil Brodrick, Robert Green, Paul Ginoux, Xavier Querol, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9155–9176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9155-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9155-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this research, we studied the dust-emitting properties of crusts and aeolian ripples from the Mojave Desert. These properties are key to understanding the effect of dust upon climate. We found two different playa lakes according to the groundwater regime, which implies differences in crusts' cohesion state and mineralogy, which can affect the dust emission potential and properties. We also compare them with Moroccan Sahara crusts and Icelandic top sediments.
Alkiviadis Kalisoras, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Dimitris Akritidis, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Chaincy Kuo, Sophie Szopa, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, David Neubauer, Naga Oshima, Jane Mulcahy, Larry W. Horowitz, and Prodromos Zanis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7837–7872, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a metric for estimating how human activities and natural agents change the energy flow into and out of the Earth’s climate system. We investigate the anthropogenic aerosol ERF, and we estimate the contribution of individual processes to the total ERF using simulations from Earth system models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our findings highlight that aerosol–cloud interactions drive ERF variability during the last 150 years.
Qianqian Song, Paul Ginoux, María Gonçalves Ageitos, Ron L. Miller, Vincenzo Obiso, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7421–7446, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7421-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7421-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We implement and simulate the distribution of eight dust minerals in the GFDL AM4.0 model. We found that resolving the eight minerals reduces dust absorption compared to the homogeneous dust used in the standard GFDL AM4.0 model that assumes a globally uniform hematite content of 2.7 % by volume. Resolving dust mineralogy results in significant impacts on radiation, land surface temperature, surface winds, and precipitation over North Africa in summer.
Fangxuan Ren, Jintai Lin, Chenghao Xu, Jamiu A. Adeniran, Jingxu Wang, Randall V. Martin, Aaron van Donkelaar, Melanie S. Hammer, Larry W. Horowitz, Steven T. Turnock, Naga Oshima, Jie Zhang, Susanne Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Gary Strand, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, and Toshihiko Takemura
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4821–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the performance of 14 CMIP6 ESMs in simulating total PM2.5 and its 5 components over China during 2000–2014. PM2.5 and its components are underestimated in almost all models, except that black carbon (BC) and sulfate are overestimated in two models, respectively. The underestimation is the largest for organic carbon (OC) and the smallest for BC. Models reproduce the observed spatial pattern for OC, sulfate, nitrate and ammonium well, yet the agreement is poorer for BC.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Bradley Hall, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan P. Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Blair Trewin, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Carlo Buontempo, Samantha Burgess, Chiara Cagnazzo, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andrew Gettelman, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Jan C. Minx, Gunnar Myhre, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Elisa Majamäki, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Margreet van Marle, Rachel M. Hoesly, Robert Rohde, Dominik Schumacher, Guido van der Werf, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Xuebin Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper tracks some key indicators of global warming through time, from 1850 through to the end of 2023. It is designed to give an authoritative estimate of global warming to date and its causes. We find that in 2023, global warming reached 1.3 °C and is increasing at over 0.2 °C per decade. This is caused by all-time-high greenhouse gas emissions.
Fabien Paulot, Gabrielle Pétron, Andrew M. Crotwell, and Matteo B. Bertagni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4217–4229, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
New data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show that hydrogen (H2) concentrations increased from 2010 to 2019, which is consistent with the simulated increase in H2 photochemical production (mainly from methane). But this cannot be reconciled with the expected decrease (increase) in H2 anthropogenic emissions (soil deposition) in the same period. This shows gaps in our knowledge of the H2 biogeochemical cycle that must be resolved to quantify the impact of higher H2 usage.
Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2387–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate scientists want to better understand modern climate change. Thus, climate model experiments are performed and compared. The results of climate model experiments differ, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. This article gives insights into the challenges and outlines opportunities for further improving the understanding of climate change. It is based on views of a group of experts in atmospheric composition–climate interactions.
Hamza Ahsan, Hailong Wang, Jingbo Wu, Mingxuan Wu, Steven J. Smith, Susanne Bauer, Harrison Suchyta, Dirk Olivié, Gunnar Myhre, Hitoshi Matsui, Huisheng Bian, Jean-François Lamarque, Ken Carslaw, Larry Horowitz, Leighton Regayre, Mian Chin, Michael Schulz, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Vaishali Naik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14779–14799, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14779-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the impact of the assumed effective height of SO2 injection, SO2 and BC emission seasonality, and the assumed fraction of SO2 emissions injected as SO4 on climate and chemistry model results. We find that the SO2 injection height has a large impact on surface SO2 concentrations and, in some models, radiative flux. These assumptions are a
hiddensource of inter-model variability and may be leading to bias in some climate model results.
Weiyi Tang, Bess B. Ward, Michael Beman, Laura Bristow, Darren Clark, Sarah Fawcett, Claudia Frey, François Fripiat, Gerhard J. Herndl, Mhlangabezi Mdutyana, Fabien Paulot, Xuefeng Peng, Alyson E. Santoro, Takuhei Shiozaki, Eva Sintes, Charles Stock, Xin Sun, Xianhui S. Wan, Min N. Xu, and Yao Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5039–5077, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5039-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5039-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrification and nitrifiers play an important role in marine nitrogen and carbon cycles by converting ammonium to nitrite and nitrate. Nitrification could affect microbial community structure, marine productivity, and the production of nitrous oxide – a powerful greenhouse gas. We introduce the newly constructed database of nitrification and nitrifiers in the marine water column and guide future research efforts in field observations and model development of nitrification.
Yiqi Zheng, Larry W. Horowitz, Raymond Menzel, David J. Paynter, Vaishali Naik, Jingyi Li, and Jingqiu Mao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8993–9007, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8993-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8993-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Biogenic secondary organic aerosols (SOAs) account for a large fraction of fine aerosol at the global scale. Using long-term measurements and a climate model, we investigate anthropogenic impacts on biogenic SOA at both decadal and centennial timescales. Results show that despite reductions in biogenic precursor emissions, SOA has been strongly amplified by anthropogenic emissions since the preindustrial era and exerts a cooling radiative forcing.
Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Bjørn H. Samset, Massimo A. Bollasina, Paul T. Griffiths, James Keeble, Marianne T. Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Declan O'Donnell, David J. Paynter, Geeta G. Persad, Steven T. Rumbold, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Sabine Undorf, and Daniel M. Westervelt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4451–4479, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional climate change. However, the size of these regional impacts and the way they arise are still uncertain. With large changes in aerosol emissions a possibility over the next few decades, it is important to better quantify the potential role of aerosol in future regional climate change. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project will deliver experiments designed to facilitate this.
Piers M. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, José M. Gutiérrez, Johannes Gütschow, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2295–2327, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This is a critical decade for climate action, but there is no annual tracking of the level of human-induced warming. We build on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports that are authoritative but published infrequently to create a set of key global climate indicators that can be tracked through time. Our hope is that this becomes an important annual publication that policymakers, media, scientists and the public can refer to.
Glen Chua, Vaishali Naik, and Larry Wayne Horowitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4955–4975, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4955-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4955-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The hydroxyl radical (OH) is an atmospheric
detergent, removing air pollutants and greenhouse gases like methane from the atmosphere. Thus, understanding how it is changing and responding to its various drivers is important for air quality and climate. We found that OH has increased by about 5 % globally from 1980 to 2014 in our model, mostly driven by increasing nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions. This suggests potential climate tradeoffs from air quality policies solely targeting NOx emissions.
Enrico Zorzetto, Sergey Malyshev, Nathaniel Chaney, David Paynter, Raymond Menzel, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1937–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1937-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1937-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we develop a methodology to model the spatial distribution of solar radiation received by land over mountainous terrain. The approach is designed to be used in Earth system models, where coarse grid cells hinder the description of fine-scale land–atmosphere interactions. We adopt a clustering algorithm to partition the land domain into a set of homogeneous sub-grid
tiles, and for each tile we evaluate solar radiation received by land based on terrain properties.
Johannes Quaas, Hailing Jia, Chris Smith, Anna Lea Albright, Wenche Aas, Nicolas Bellouin, Olivier Boucher, Marie Doutriaux-Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Daniel Grosvenor, Stuart Jenkins, Zbigniew Klimont, Norman G. Loeb, Xiaoyan Ma, Vaishali Naik, Fabien Paulot, Philip Stier, Martin Wild, Gunnar Myhre, and Michael Schulz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12221–12239, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Pollution particles cool climate and offset part of the global warming. However, they are washed out by rain and thus their effect responds quickly to changes in emissions. We show multiple datasets to demonstrate that aerosol emissions and their concentrations declined in many regions influenced by human emissions, as did the effects on clouds. Consequently, the cooling impact on the Earth energy budget became smaller. This change in trend implies a relative warming.
Qirui Zhong, Nick Schutgens, Guido van der Werf, Twan van Noije, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Tero Mielonen, Alf Kirkevåg, Øyvind Seland, Harri Kokkola, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, David Neubauer, Zak Kipling, Hitoshi Matsui, Paul Ginoux, Toshihiko Takemura, Philippe Le Sager, Samuel Rémy, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Kai Zhang, Jialei Zhu, Svetlana G. Tsyro, Gabriele Curci, Anna Protonotariou, Ben Johnson, Joyce E. Penner, Nicolas Bellouin, Ragnhild B. Skeie, and Gunnar Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11009–11032, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11009-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11009-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol optical depth (AOD) errors for biomass burning aerosol (BBA) are evaluated in 18 global models against satellite datasets. Notwithstanding biases in satellite products, they allow model evaluations. We observe large and diverse model biases due to errors in BBA. Further interpretations of AOD diversities suggest large biases exist in key processes for BBA which require better constraining. These results can contribute to further model improvement and development.
Enza Di Tomaso, Jerónimo Escribano, Sara Basart, Paul Ginoux, Francesca Macchia, Francesca Barnaba, Francesco Benincasa, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Arnau Buñuel, Miguel Castrillo, Emilio Cuevas, Paola Formenti, María Gonçalves, Oriol Jorba, Martina Klose, Lucia Mona, Gilbert Montané Pinto, Michail Mytilinaios, Vincenzo Obiso, Miriam Olid, Nick Schutgens, Athanasios Votsis, Ernest Werner, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2785–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2785-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2785-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
MONARCH reanalysis of desert dust aerosols extends the existing observation-based information for mineral dust monitoring by providing 3-hourly upper-air, surface and total column key geophysical variables of the dust cycle over Northern Africa, the Middle East and Europe, at a 0.1° horizontal resolution in a rotated grid, from 2007 to 2016. This work provides evidence of the high accuracy of this data set and its suitability for air quality and health and climate service applications.
Henry Bowman, Steven Turnock, Susanne E. Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Makoto Deushi, Naga Oshima, Fiona M. O'Connor, Larry Horowitz, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Dagmar Kubistin, and David D. Parrish
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3507–3524, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3507-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3507-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A full understanding of ozone in the troposphere requires investigation of its temporal variability over all timescales. Model simulations show that the northern midlatitude ozone seasonal cycle shifted with industrial development (1850–2014), with an increasing magnitude and a later summer peak. That shift reached a maximum in the mid-1980s, followed by a reversal toward the preindustrial cycle. The few available observations, beginning in the 1970s, are consistent with the model simulations.
Sujung Go, Alexei Lyapustin, Gregory L. Schuster, Myungje Choi, Paul Ginoux, Mian Chin, Olga Kalashnikova, Oleg Dubovik, Jhoon Kim, Arlindo da Silva, Brent Holben, and Jeffrey S. Reid
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1395–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1395-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1395-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a retrieval algorithm of iron-oxide species (hematite, goethite) content in the atmosphere from DSCOVR EPIC observations. Our results display variations within the published range of hematite and goethite over the main dust-source regions but show significant seasonal and spatial variability. This implies a single-viewing satellite instrument with UV–visible channels may provide essential information on shortwave dust direct radiative effects for climate modeling.
Maria Sand, Bjørn H. Samset, Gunnar Myhre, Jonas Gliß, Susanne E. Bauer, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Paul Ginoux, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Philippe Le Sager, Marianne T. Lund, Hitoshi Matsui, Twan van Noije, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Samuel Remy, Michael Schulz, Philip Stier, Camilla W. Stjern, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana G. Tsyro, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15929–15947, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15929-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Absorption of shortwave radiation by aerosols can modify precipitation and clouds but is poorly constrained in models. A total of 15 different aerosol models from AeroCom phase III have reported total aerosol absorption, and for the first time, 11 of these models have reported in a consistent experiment the contributions to absorption from black carbon, dust, and organic aerosol. Here, we document the model diversity in aerosol absorption.
Martina Klose, Oriol Jorba, María Gonçalves Ageitos, Jeronimo Escribano, Matthew L. Dawson, Vincenzo Obiso, Enza Di Tomaso, Sara Basart, Gilbert Montané Pinto, Francesca Macchia, Paul Ginoux, Juan Guerschman, Catherine Prigent, Yue Huang, Jasper F. Kok, Ron L. Miller, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6403–6444, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6403-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6403-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Mineral soil dust is a major atmospheric airborne particle type. We present and evaluate MONARCH, a model used for regional and global dust-weather prediction. An important feature of the model is that it allows different approximations to represent dust, ranging from more simplified to more complex treatments. Using these different treatments, MONARCH can help us better understand impacts of dust in the Earth system, such as its interactions with radiation.
Cited articles
Alfaro-Contreras, R., Zhang, J., Reid, J. S., and Christopher, S.: A study of
15-year aerosol optical thickness and direct shortwave aerosol radiative
effect trends using MODIS, MISR, CALIOP and CERES, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17,
13849–13868, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13849-2017, 2017. a, b
Ansari, A. S. and Pandis, S. N.: Response of Inorganic PM to Precursor
Concentrations, Environ. Sci. Technol., 32, 2706–2714, 1998. a
Babu, S. S., Manoj, M. R., Moorthy, K. K., Gogoi, M. M., Nair, V. S., Kompalli,
S. K., Satheesh, S. K., Niranjan, K., Ramagopal, K., Bhuyan, P. K., and
Singh, D.: Trends in aerosol optical depth over Indian region: Potential
causes and impact indicators, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
118, 11794–11806, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020507,
2013. a, b, c
Bellouin, N., Boucher, O., Haywood, J., and Reddy, M. S.: Global estimate of
aerosol direct radiative forcing from satellite measurements, Nature, 438,
1138–1141, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04348, 2005. a
Bellouin, N., Jones, A., Haywood, J., and Christopher, S. A.: Updated estimate
of aerosol direct radiative forcing from satellite observations and
comparison against the Hadley Centre climate model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D10205, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009385, 2008. a
Bollasina, M. A., Ming, Y., and Ramaswamy, V.: Anthropogenic Aerosols and the
Weakening of the South Asian Summer Monsoon, Science, 334,
502–505, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1204994, 2011. a
Bond, T. C., Doherty, S. J., Fahey, D. W., Forster, P. M., Berntsen, T.,
DeAngelo, B. J., Flanner, M. G., Ghan, S., Kärcher, B., Koch, D., Kinne,
S., Kondo, Y., Quinn, P. K., Sarofim, M. C., Schultz, M. G., Schulz, M.,
Venkataraman, C., Zhang, H., Zhang, S., Bellouin, N., Guttikunda, S. K.,
Hopke, P. K., Jacobson, M. Z., Kaiser, J. W., Klimont, Z., Lohmann, U.,
Schwarz, J. P., Shindell, D., Storelvmo, T., Warren, S. G., and Zender,
C. S.: Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific
assessment, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 5380–5552,
https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50171, 2013. a
Boucher, O., Randall, D., Artaxo, P., Bretherton, C., Feingold, G., Forster,
P., Kerminen, V.-M., Kondo, Y., Liao, H., Lohmann, U., Rasch, P., Satheesh,
S., Sherwood, S., Stevens, B., and Zhang, X.: Clouds and Aerosols, book
section 7, 571–658, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.016, 2013. a
Cescatti, A., Marcolla, B., Santhana Vannan, S. K., Pan, J. Y., Román,
M. O., Yang, X., Ciais, P., Cook, R. B., Law, B. E., Matteucci, G.,
Migliavacca, M., Moors, E., Richardson, A. D., Seufert, G., and Schaaf,
C. B.: Intercomparison of MODIS albedo retrievals and in situ measurements
across the global FLUXNET network, Remote Sens. Environ., 121, 323–334,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2012.02.019,
2012. a
Charlson, R. J., Schwartz, S. E., Hales, J. M., Cess, R. D., Coakley, J. A.,
Hansen, J. E., and Hofmann, D. J.: Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic
Aerosols, Science, 255, 423–430, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.255.5043.423, 1992. a
Cheng, Y., Zheng, G., Wei, C., Mu, Q., Zheng, B., Wang, Z., Gao, M., Zhang, Q.,
He, K., Carmichael, G., Pöschl, U., and Su, H.: Reactive nitrogen chemistry
in aerosol water as a source of sulfate during haze events in China, Sci.
Adv., 2, e1601530, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601530, 2016. a
Christopher, S. A. and Zhang, J.: Cloud-free shortwave aerosol radiative effect
over oceans: Strategies for identifying anthropogenic forcing from Terra
satellite measurements, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L18101,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020510, 2004. a
CMIP6 Data Request: Data Request Section: CMORvar, available at:
http://clipc-services.ceda.ac.uk/dreq/index/CMORvar.html, last access:
2 June 2017. a
Collins, W. D., Rasch, P. J., Eaton, B. E., Khattatov, B. V., Lamarque, J.-F.,
and Zender, C. S.: Simulating aerosols using a chemical transport model with
assimilation of satellite aerosol retrievals: Methodology for INDOEX,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 106, 7313–7336,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900507,
2001. a
de Foy, B., Lu, Z., and Streets, D. G.: Satellite NO2 retrievals
suggest China has exceeded its NOx reduction goals from
the twelfth Five-Year Plan, Sci. Rep., 6, 35912,
https://doi.org/10.1038/srep35912, 2016. a
Dentener, F., Kinne, S., Bond, T., Boucher, O., Cofala, J., Generoso, S.,
Ginoux, P., Gong, S., Hoelzemann, J. J., Ito, A., Marelli, L., Penner, J. E.,
Putaud, J.-P., Textor, C., Schulz, M., van der Werf, G. R., and Wilson, J.:
Emissions of primary aerosol and precursor gases in the years 2000 and 1750
prescribed data-sets for AeroCom, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 4321–4344,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-4321-2006, 2006. a
Ding, J., Miyazaki, K., van der A, R. J., Mijling, B., Kurokawa, J.-I., Cho,
S., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Zhang, Q., Liu, F., and Levelt, P. F.:
Intercomparison of NOx emission inventories over East Asia,
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10125–10141,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10125-2017, 2017. a
Donner, L. J., Wyman, B. L., Hemler, R. S., Horowitz, L. W., Ming, Y., Zhao,
M., Golaz, J.-C., Ginoux, P., Lin, S.-J., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Austin, J.,
Alaka, G., Cooke, W. F., Delworth, T. L., Freidenreich, S. M., Gordon, C. T.,
Griffies, S. M., Held, I. M., Hurlin, W. J., Klein, S. A., Knutson, T. R.,
Langenhorst, A. R., Lee, H.-C., Lin, Y., Magi, B. I., Malyshev, S. L., Milly,
P. C. D., Naik, V., Nath, M. J., Pincus, R., Ploshay, J. J., Ramaswamy, V.,
Seman, C. J., Shevliakova, E., Sirutis, J. J., Stern, W. F., Stouffer, R. J.,
Wilson, R. J., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., and Zeng, F.: The Dynamical
Core, Physical Parameterizations, and Basic Simulation Characteristics of the
Atmospheric Component AM3 of the GFDL Global Coupled Model CM3, J.
Climate, 24, 3484–3519, 2011. a, b, c, d
Freidenreich, S. M. and Ramaswamy, V.: A new multiple-band solar radiative
parameterization for general circulation models, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 104, 31389–31409, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999jd900456, 1999. a
Ginoux, P., Prospero, J. M., Gill, T. E., Hsu, N. C., and Zhao, M.:
Global-scale attribution of anthropogenic and natural dust sources and their
emission rates based on MODIS Deep Blue aerosol products, Rev. Geophys.,
50, RG3005, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012RG000388, 2012. a
Griffies, S. M., Winton, M., Donner, L. J., Horowitz, L. W., Downes, S. M.,
Farneti, R., Gnanadesikan, A., Hurlin, W. J., Lee, H.-C., Liang, Z., Palter,
J. B., Samuels, B. L., Wittenberg, A. T., Wyman, B. L., Yin, J., and Zadeh,
N.: The GFDL CM3 Coupled Climate Model: Characteristics of the Ocean
and Sea Ice Simulations, J. Climate, 24, 3520–3544,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3964.1,
2011. a
Guenther, A., Karl, T., Harley, P., Wiedinmyer, C., Palmer, P. I., and Geron,
C.: Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of
Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6,
3181–3210, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-3181-2006, 2006. a
Guo, H., Weber, R. J., and Nenes, A.: High levels of ammonia do not raise fine
particle pH sufficiently to yield nitrogen oxide-dominated sulfate
production, Sci. Rep., 7, 12109, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11704-0, 2017. a
He, P., Alexander, B., Geng, L., Chi, X., Fan, S., Zhan, H., Kang, H., Zheng,
G., Cheng, Y., Su, H., Liu, C., and Xie, Z.: Isotopic constraints on
heterogeneous sulfate production in Beijing haze, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18,
5515–5528, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5515-2018, 2018. a
Heald, C. L., Collett Jr., J. L., Lee, T., Benedict, K. B., Schwandner, F.
M., Li, Y., Clarisse, L., Hurtmans, D. R., Van Damme, M., Clerbaux, C.,
Coheur, P.-F., Philip, S., Martin, R. V., and Pye, H. O. T.: Atmospheric
ammonia and particulate inorganic nitrogen over the United States, Atmos.
Chem. Phys., 12, 10295–10312, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-10295-2012,
2012. a
Heald, C. L., Ridley, D. A., Kroll, J. H., Barrett, S. R. H., Cady-Pereira,
K. E., Alvarado, M. J., and Holmes, C. D.: Contrasting the direct radiative
effect and direct radiative forcing of aerosols, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14,
5513–5527, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5513-2014, 2014. a, b, c
Hoesly, R. M., Smith, S. J., Feng, L., Klimont, Z., Janssens-Maenhout, G.,
Pitkanen, T., Seibert, J. J., Vu, L., Andres, R. J., Bolt, R. M., Bond, T.
C., Dawidowski, L., Kholod, N., Kurokawa, J.-I., Li, M., Liu, L., Lu, Z.,
Moura, M. C. P., O'Rourke, P. R., and Zhang, Q.: Historical (1750–2014)
anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community
Emissions Data System (CEDS), Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 369–408,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-369-2018, 2018. a
Hung, H.-M. and Hoffmann, M. R.: Oxidation of gas-phase SO2 on the
surfaces of acidic microdroplets: implications for sulfate and sulfate
radical anion formation in the atmospheric liquid phase, Environ. Sci.
Technol., 49, 13768–13776, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5b01658, 2015. a
Irie, H., Muto, T., Itahashi, S., Kurokawa, J.-I., and Uno, I.: Turnaround of
Tropospheric Nitrogen Dioxide Pollution Trends in China, Japan,
and South Korea, Sola, 12, 170–174, https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2016-035, 2016. a
Jin, Q. and Wang, C.: The greening of Northwest Indian subcontinent and
reduction of dust abundance resulting from Indian summer monsoon revival,
Sci. Rep., 8, 4573, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-23055-5, 2018. a
John, J. G., Fiore, A. M., Naik, V., Horowitz, L. W., and Dunne, J. P.:
Climate versus emission drivers of methane lifetime against loss by
tropospheric OH from 1860–2100, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 12021–12036,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12021-2012, 2012. a
Kahn, R. A.: Reducing the Uncertainties in Direct Aerosol Radiative
Forcing, Surv. Geophys., 33, 701–721, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-011-9153-z,
2012. a
Kahn, R. A., Gaitley, B. J., Martonchik, J. V., Diner, D. J., Crean, K. A., and
Holben, B.: Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) global aerosol
optical depth validation based on 2 years of coincident Aerosol Robotic
Network (AERONET) observations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
110, D10S04, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD004706, 2005. a, b
Kahn, R. A., Gaitley, B. J., Garay, M. J., Diner, D. J., Eck, T. F., Smirnov,
A., and Holben, B. N.: Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer global aerosol
product assessment by comparison with the Aerosol Robotic Network, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, D23209, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014601, 2010. a, b
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L.,
Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Leetmaa, A.,
Reynolds, R., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo,
K. C., Ropelewski, C., Wang, J., Jenne, R., and Joseph, D.: The
NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,
77, 437–471, 1996. a
Kendall, M. G.: A new measure of rank correlation, Biometrika, 30, 81–93,
https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/30.1-2.81, 1938. a
Kim, D., Chin, M., Bian, H., Tan, Q., Brown, M. E., Zheng, T., You, R., Diehl,
T., Ginoux, P., and Kucsera, T.: The effect of the dynamic surface bareness
on dust source function, emission, and distribution, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 871–886, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017907,
2013. a
Krotkov, N. A., McLinden, C. A., Li, C., Lamsal, L. N., Celarier, E. A.,
Marchenko, S. V., Swartz, W. H., Bucsela, E. J., Joiner, J., Duncan, B. N.,
Boersma, K. F., Veefkind, J. P., Levelt, P. F., Fioletov, V. E., Dickerson,
R. R., He, H., Lu, Z., and Streets, D. G.: Aura OMI observations of regional
SO2 and NO2 pollution changes from 2005 to 2015, Atmos.
Chem. Phys., 16, 4605–4629, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4605-2016, 2016. a
Kühn, T., Partanen, A.-I., Laakso, A., Lu, Z., Bergman, T., Mikkonen, S.,
Kokkola, H., Korhonen, H., Räisänen, P., Streets, D. G.,
Romakkaniemi, S., and Laaksonen, A.: Climate impacts of changing aerosol
emissions since 1996, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 4711–4718,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl060349, 2014. a
Levy, H., Horowitz, L. W., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Ming, Y., Golaz, J.-C., Naik,
V., and Ramaswamy, V.: The roles of aerosol direct and indirect effects in
past and future climate change, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 4521–4532,
2013. a
Levy, R. C., Remer, L. A., Kleidman, R. G., Mattoo, S., Ichoku, C., Kahn, R.,
and Eck, T. F.: Global evaluation of the Collection 5 MODIS dark-target
aerosol products over land, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 10399–10420,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-10399-2010, 2010. a
Levy, R. C., Mattoo, S., Munchak, L. A., Remer, L. A., Sayer, A. M., Patadia,
F., and Hsu, N. C.: The Collection 6 MODIS aerosol products over land and
ocean, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 2989–3034,
https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-2989-2013, 2013. a, b
Li, C., Zhang, Q., Krotkov, N. A., Streets, D. G., He, K., Tsay, S.-C., and
Gleason, J. F.: Recent large reduction in sulfur dioxide emissions from
Chinese power plants observed by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 37, L08807, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL042594, 2010. a
Liu, F., Zhang, Q., A, R. J. v. d., Zheng, B., Tong, D., Yan, L., Zheng, Y.,
and He, K.: Recent reduction in NOx emissions over China: synthesis of
satellite observations and emission inventories, Environ. Res. Lett., 11,
114002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114002, 2016. a, b
Loeb, N. G. and Manalo-Smith, N.: Top-of-Atmosphere Direct Radiative
Effect of Aerosols over Global Oceans from Merged CERES and
MODIS Observations, J. Climate, 18, 3506–3526, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3504.1, 2005. a
Loeb, N. G., Doelling, D. R., Wang, H., Su, W., Nguyen, C., Corbett, J. G.,
Liang, L., Mitrescu, C., Rose, F. G., and Kato, S.: Clouds and the Earth's
Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF)
Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) Edition-4.0 Data Product, J. Climate, 31,
895–918, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-17-0208.1, 2018. a, b, c
Murphy, D. M.: Little net clear-sky radiative forcing from recent regional
redistribution of aerosols, Nat. Geosci., 6, 258–262,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1740,
2013. a
Myhre, G., Samset, B. H., Schulz, M., Balkanski, Y., Bauer, S., Berntsen, T.
K., Bian, H., Bellouin, N., Chin, M., Diehl, T., Easter, R. C., Feichter, J.,
Ghan, S. J., Hauglustaine, D., Iversen, T., Kinne, S., Kirkevåg, A.,
Lamarque, J.-F., Lin, G., Liu, X., Lund, M. T., Luo, G., Ma, X., van Noije,
T., Penner, J. E., Rasch, P. J., Ruiz, A., Seland, Ø., Skeie, R. B.,
Stier, P., Takemura, T., Tsigaridis, K., Wang, P., Wang, Z., Xu, L., Yu, H.,
Yu, F., Yoon, J.-H., Zhang, K., Zhang, H., and Zhou, C.: Radiative forcing of
the direct aerosol effect from AeroCom Phase II simulations, Atmos. Chem.
Phys., 13, 1853–1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1853-2013, 2013. a, b, c
Myhre, G., Aas, W., Cherian, R., Collins, W., Faluvegi, G., Flanner, M.,
Forster, P., Hodnebrog, Ø., Klimont, Z., Lund, M. T., Mülmenstädt,
J., Lund Myhre, C., Olivié, D., Prather, M., Quaas, J., Samset, B. H.,
Schnell, J. L., Schulz, M., Shindell, D., Skeie, R. B., Takemura, T., and
Tsyro, S.: Multi-model simulations of aerosol and ozone radiative forcing due
to anthropogenic emission changes during the period 1990–2015, Atmos. Chem.
Phys., 17, 2709–2720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, 2017. a
Pan, X., Chin, M., Gautam, R., Bian, H., Kim, D., Colarco, P. R., Diehl, T.
L., Takemura, T., Pozzoli, L., Tsigaridis, K., Bauer, S., and Bellouin, N.: A
multi-model evaluation of aerosols over South Asia: common problems and
possible causes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5903–5928,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5903-2015, 2015. a, b, c
Patadia, F., Gupta, P., and Christopher, S. A.: First observational estimates
of global clear sky shortwave aerosol direct radiative effect over land,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L04810, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032314,
2008. a
Paulot, F., Jacob, D. J., Pinder, R. W., Bash, J. O., Travis, K., and Henze,
D. K.: Ammonia emissions in the United States, European Union, and
China derived by high-resolution inversion of ammonium wet deposition data:
Interpretation with a new agricultural emissions inventory (MASAGE_NH3),
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 4343–4364, 2014. a
Paulot, F., Ginoux, P., Cooke, W. F., Donner, L. J., Fan, S., Lin, M.-Y.,
Mao, J., Naik, V., and Horowitz, L. W.: Sensitivity of nitrate aerosols to
ammonia emissions and to nitrate chemistry: implications for present and
future nitrate optical depth, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 1459–1477,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1459-2016, 2016. a, b, c
Paulot, F., Fan, S., and Horowitz, L. W.: Contrasting seasonal responses of
sulfate aerosols to declining SO2 emissions in the Eastern U.S.:
Implications for the efficacy of SO2 emission controls, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 44, 455–464, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070695,
2017a. a, b
Paulot, F., Paynter, D., Ginoux, P., Naik, V., Whitburn, S., Van Damme, M.,
Clarisse, L., Coheur, P.-F., and Horowitz, L. W.: Gas-aerosol partitioning of
ammonia in biomass burning plumes: Implications for the interpretation of
spaceborne observations of ammonia and the radiative forcing of ammonium
nitrate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 8084–8093, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074215,
2017b. a, b
Rayner, N. A., Parker, D. E., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V.,
Rowell, D. P., Kent, E. C., and Kaplan, A.: Global analyses of sea surface
temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late
nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 4407,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670, 2003. a
Rosenfeld, D., Andreae, M. O., Asmi, A., Chin, M., de Leeuw, G., Donovan,
D. P., Kahn, R., Kinne, S., Kivekäs, N., Kulmala, M., Lau, W., Schmidt,
K. S., Suni, T., Wagner, T., Wild, M., and Quaas, J.: Global observations of
aerosol-cloud-precipitation-climate interactions, Rev. Geophys., 52,
750–808, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013RG000441,
2014. a
Rutan, D., Rose, F., Roman, M., Manalo-Smith, N., Schaaf, C., and Charlock,
T.: Development and assessment of broadband surface albedo from Clouds and
the Earth's Radiant Energy System Clouds and Radiation Swath
data product, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D08125,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010669, 2009. a, b
Rutan, D. A., Kato, S., Doelling, D. R., Rose, F. G., Nguyen, L. T., Caldwell,
T. E., and Loeb, N. G.: CERES Synoptic Product: Methodology and
Validation of Surface Radiant Flux, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 32,
1121–1143, https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-14-00165.1,
2015. a, b
Saikawa, E., Kim, H., Zhong, M., Avramov, A., Zhao, Y., Janssens-Maenhout,
G., Kurokawa, J.-I., Klimont, Z., Wagner, F., Naik, V., Horowitz, L. W., and
Zhang, Q.: Comparison of emissions inventories of anthropogenic air
pollutants and greenhouse gases in China, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6393–6421,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6393-2017, 2017a. a
Saikawa, E., Trail, M., Zhong, M., Wu, Q., Young, C. L., Janssens-Maenhout, G.,
Klimont, Z., Wagner, F., ichi Kurokawa, J., Nagpure, A. S., and Gurjar,
B. R.: Uncertainties in emissions estimates of greenhouse gases and air
pollutants in India and their impacts on regional air quality, Environ.
Res. Lett., 12, 065002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb4, 2017b. a
Sayer, A. M., Munchak, L. A., Hsu, N. C., Levy, R. C., Bettenhausen, C., and
Jeong, M.-J.: MODIS Collection 6 aerosol products: Comparison between Aqua's
e-Deep Blue, Dark Target, and “merged” data sets, and usage
recommendations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119,
13965–13989, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022453, 2014. a
Schaaf, C. B., Gao, F., Strahler, A. H., Lucht, W., Li, X., Tsang, T.,
Strugnell, N. C., Zhang, X., Jin, Y., Muller, J.-P., Lewis, P., Barnsley, M.,
Hobson, P., Disney, M., Roberts, G., Dunderdale, M., Doll, C., d'Entremont,
R. P., Hu, B., Liang, S., Privette, J. L., and Roy, D.: First operational
BRDF, albedo nadir reflectance products from MODIS, Remote Sens.
Environ., 83, 135–148, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0034-4257(02)00091-3,
2002. a
Schwarzkopf, M. D. and Ramaswamy, V.: Radiative effects of CH4,
N2O, halocarbons and the foreign-broadened H2O continuum:
A GCM experiment, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 104, 9467–9488,
https://doi.org/10.1029/1999jd900003, 1999. a
Sen, P. K.: Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on
Kendall's Tau, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 63, 1379–1389,
https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934, 1968. a
Shell, K. M., Kiehl, J. T., and Shields, C. A.: Using the Radiative Kernel
Technique to Calculate Climate Feedbacks in NCAR's Community Atmospheric
Model, J. Climate, 21, 2269–2282, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli2044.1, 2008. a
Soden, B. J., Held, I. M., Colman, R., Shell, K. M., Kiehl, J. T., and Shields,
C. A.: Quantifying Climate Feedbacks Using Radiative Kernels, J.
Climate, 21, 3504–3520, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli2110.1, 2008. a
Stevens, B.: Rethinking the Lower Bound on Aerosol Radiative Forcing, J.
Climate, 28, 4794–4819, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00656.1, 2015. a
Stevens, B. and Schwartz, S. E.: Observing and Modeling Earth's Energy Flows,
Surv. Geophys., 33, 779–816, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-012-9184-0, 2012. a, b, c, d
Stevens, B., Fiedler, S., Kinne, S., Peters, K., Rast, S., Müsse, J.,
Smith, S. J., and Mauritsen, T.: MACv2-SP: a parameterization of
anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect for
use in CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 433–452,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-433-2017, 2017. a
Storelvmo, T., Leirvik, T., Lohmann, U., Phillips, P. C. B., and Wild, M.:
Disentangling greenhouse warming and aerosol cooling to reveal Earth's
climate sensitivity, Nat. Geosci., 9, 286–289, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2670,
2016. a
Su, W., Loeb, N. G., Schuster, G. L., Chin, M., and Rose, F. G.: Global all-sky
shortwave direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols from combined
satellite observations and GOCART simulations, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 118, 655–669, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012jd018294, 2013. a
Taylor, K. E., Williamson, D., and Zwiers, F.: The sea surface temperature and
sea-ice concentration boundary conditions for AMIP II simulations, Program
for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory, University of California, Livermore, CA, USA, 2000. a
Theil, H.: A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression
analysis. I, Nederl. Akad. Wetensch., Proc., 53, 386–392, 1950. a
Twomey, S.: Pollution and the planetary albedo, Atmos. Environ., 8, 1251–1256,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0004-6981(74)90004-3,
1974. a
van der A, R. J., Mijling, B., Ding, J., Koukouli, M. E., Liu, F., Li, Q.,
Mao, H., and Theys, N.: Cleaning up the air: effectiveness of air quality
policy for SO2 and NOx emissions in China, Atmos.
Chem. Phys., 17, 1775–1789, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1775-2017, 2017. a, b, c
van der Werf, G. R., Randerson, J. T., Giglio, L., van Leeuwen, T. T., Chen,
Y., Rogers, B. M., Mu, M., van Marle, M. J. E., Morton, D. C., Collatz, G.
J., Yokelson, R. J., and Kasibhatla, P. S.: Global fire emissions estimates
during 1997–2016, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 697–720,
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-697-2017, 2017. a
van Marle, M. J. E., Kloster, S., Magi, B. I., Marlon, J. R., Daniau, A.-L.,
Field, R. D., Arneth, A., Forrest, M., Hantson, S., Kehrwald, N. M., Knorr,
W., Lasslop, G., Li, F., Mangeon, S., Yue, C., Kaiser, J. W., and van der
Werf, G. R.: Historic global biomass burning emissions for CMIP6 (BB4CMIP)
based on merging satellite observations with proxies and fire models
(1750–2015), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3329–3357,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3329-2017, 2017. a
Wang, S., Xing, J., Jang, C., Zhu, Y., Fu, J. S., and Hao, J.: Impact
Assessment of Ammonia Emissions on Inorganic Aerosols in East China Using
Response Surface Modeling Technique, Environ. Sci. Technol., 45, 9293–9300,
https://doi.org/10.1021/es2022347,
2011. a
Wang, Y., Zhang, Q., Jiang, J., Zhou, W., Wang, B., He, K., Duan, F., Zhang,
Q., Philip, S., and Xie, Y.: Enhanced sulfate formation during China's
severe winter haze episode in January 2013 missing from current models, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 10425–10440, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021426,
2014. a
Wang, Z., Schaaf, C. B., Strahler, A. H., Chopping, M. J., Román, M. O.,
Shuai, Y., Woodcock, C. E., Hollinger, D. Y., and Fitzjarrald, D. R.:
Evaluation of MODIS albedo product (MCD43A) over grassland, agriculture
and forest surface types during dormant and snow-covered periods, Remote
Sens. Environ., 140, 60–77, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2013.08.025,
2014. a
Warner, J. X., Dickerson, R. R., Wei, Z., Strow, L. L., Wang, Y., and Liang,
Q.: Increased atmospheric ammonia over the world's major agricultural areas
detected from space, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 2875–2884,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072305, 2017. a
Wielicki, B. A., Barkstrom, B. R., Harrison, E. F., Lee, R. B., Louis Smith,
G., and Cooper, J. E.: Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System
(CERES): An Earth Observing System Experiment, B. Am.
Meteorol. Soc., 77, 853–868,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0853:CATERE>2.0.CO;2,
1996. a, b
Wielicki, B. A., Barkstrom, B. R., Baum, B. A., Charlock, T. P., Green, R. N.,
Kratz, D. P., Lee, R. B., Minnis, P., Smith, G. L., Wong, T., Young, D. F.,
Cess, R. D., Coakley, J. A., Crommelynck, D. A. H., Donner, L., Kandel, R.,
King, M. D., Miller, A. J., Ramanathan, V., Randall, D. A., Stowe, L. L., and
Welch, R. M.: Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES): algorithm
overview, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 36, 1127–1141,
https://doi.org/10.1109/36.701020, 1998. a, b
Wild, M.: Global dimming and brightening: A review, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 114, D00D16, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011470, 2009. a
Xing, J., Mathur, R., Pleim, J., Hogrefe, C., Gan, C.-M., Wong, D. C., and
Wei, C.: Can a coupled meteorology–chemistry model reproduce the historical
trend in aerosol direct radiative effects over the Northern Hemisphere?,
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9997–10018,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9997-2015, 2015. a
Yevich, R. and Logan, J.: An assessment of biofuel use and burning of
agricultural waste in the developing world., Global Biogeochem. Cy., 17,
1095, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GB001952, 2003. a
Zhang, L., Chen, Y., Zhao, Y., Henze, D. K., Zhu, L., Song, Y., Paulot, F.,
Liu, X., Pan, Y., Lin, Y., and Huang, B.: Agricultural ammonia emissions in
China: reconciling bottom-up and top-down estimates, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18,
339–355, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-339-2018, 2018. a
Zhang, Q., Streets, D. G., Carmichael, G. R., He, K. B., Huo, H., Kannari,
A., Klimont, Z., Park, I. S., Reddy, S., Fu, J. S., Chen, D., Duan, L., Lei,
Y., Wang, L. T., and Yao, Z. L.: Asian emissions in 2006 for the NASA INTEX-B
mission, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 5131–5153,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-5131-2009, 2009.
a
Zhao, B., Jiang, J. H., Gu, Y., Diner, D., Worden, J., Liou, K.-N., Su, H.,
Xing, J., Garay, M., and Huang, L.: Decadal-scale trends in regional
aerosol particle properties and their linkage to emission changes, Environ.
Res. Lett., 12, 054021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb2, 2017. a, b
Zheng, B., Zhang, Q., Zhang, Y., He, K. B., Wang, K., Zheng, G. J., Duan, F.
K., Ma, Y. L., and Kimoto, T.: Heterogeneous chemistry: a mechanism missing
in current models to explain secondary inorganic aerosol formation during the
January 2013 haze episode in North China, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2031–2049,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2031-2015, 2015. a, b
Zhu, Z., Piao, S., Myneni, R. B., Huang, M., Zeng, Z., Canadell, J. G., Ciais,
P., Sitch, S., Friedlingstein, P., Arneth, A., Cao, C., Cheng, L., Kato, E.,
Koven, C., Li, Y., Lian, X., Liu, Y., Liu, R., Mao, J., Pan, Y., Peng, S.,
Peñuelas, J., Poulter, B., Pugh, T. A. M., Stocker, B. D., Viovy, N.,
Wang, X., Wang, Y., Xiao, Z., Yang, H., Zaehle, S., and Zeng, N.: Greening of
the Earth and its drivers, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 791–795,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3004, 2016. a
Short summary
Observations show that the sunlight reflected to space by particles has decreased over the US and Europe, increased over India, and not changed over China from 2001 to 2015. These changes are attributed to different types of particles, namely sulfate over the US and Europe, and black carbon, sulfate, and nitrate over China and India. Our results suggest that the recent shift in human emissions from the US and Europe to Asia has altered their impact on the Earth's outgoing energy.
Observations show that the sunlight reflected to space by particles has decreased over the US...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint