Articles | Volume 13, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-285-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-285-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Jan 2013
Research article |
| 11 Jan 2013
Future methane, hydroxyl, and their uncertainties: key climate and emission parameters for future predictions
C. D. Holmes
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, USA
M. J. Prather
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, USA
O. A. Søvde
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Oslo, Norway
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Oslo, Norway
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Paul T. Griffiths, Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Michael Prather, Alex Archibald, Florence Brown, Makoto Deushi, William Collins, Stephanie Fiedler, Naga Oshima, Lee T. Murray, Bjørn H. Samset, Chris Smith, Steven Turnock, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Paul J. Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8289–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025, 2025
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The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) aimed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. We review its contribution to AR6 (Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and the wider understanding of the role of these species in climate and climate change. We identify challenges and provide recommendations to improve the utility and uptake of climate model data, detailed summary tables of CMIP6 models, experiments, and emergent diagnostics.
Clara Orbe, Alison Ming, Gabriel Chiodo, Michael Prather, Mohamadou Diallo, Qi Tang, Andreas Chrysanthou, Hiroaki Naoe, Xin Zhou, Irina Thaler, Dillon Elsbury, Ewa Bednarz, Jonathon S. Wright, Aaron Match, Shingo Watanabe, James Anstey, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Stefan Versick, Marion Marchand, Feng Li, and James Keeble
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2761, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2761, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the main source of wind fluctuations in the tropical stratosphere, which can couple to surface climate. However, models do a poor job of simulating the QBO in the lower stratosphere, for reasons that remain unclear. One possibility is that models do not completely represent how ozone influences the QBO-associated wind variations. Here we propose a multi-model framework for assessing how ozone influences the QBO in recent past and future climates.
Rachael E. Byrom, Gunnar Myhre, Øivind Hodnebrog, Dirk Olivié, and Michael Schulz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5683–5693, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5683-2025, 2025
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Addressing the cause of model spread in CO2 effective radiative forcing (ERF) is important for reducing uncertainty in climate change. We investigate stratospheric O3 as a driver of this spread by altering its concentration by 50 % and analysing the impact on CO2 forcing. Our experiments show a significant effect on stratospheric temperature that impacts instantaneous radiative forcing, primarily due to the influence on longwave emission. However, the impact on ERF is minimal.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Marit Sandstad, Srinath Krishnan, Gunnar Myhre, and Maria Sand
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4929–4942, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4929-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4929-2025, 2025
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Hydrogen leakages can alter the amount of climate gases in the atmosphere and hence have a climate impact. In this study we investigate, using an atmospheric chemistry model, how this indirect climate effect differs with different amounts of leakages and with where the hydrogen leaks and if this effect changes in the future. The effect is largest for emissions far from areas where hydrogen is removed from the atmosphere by the soil, but these are not relevant locations for a future hydrogen economy.
Calum P. Wilson and Michael J. Prather
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 1757–1769, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-1757-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-1757-2025, 2025
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We evaluated how well we can infer air pollutant levels (ozone, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides) between air quality stations throughout South Korea, finding good representation in most densely measured cities in spite of intense small-scale emission hotspots. Comparing observed air quality with gridded model output is desirable, and so we created gridded datasets over South Korea using air quality station measurements, which agreed with airborne measurements around Seoul.
Joe Adabouk Amooli, Marianne T. Lund, Sourangsu Chowdhury, Gunnar Myhre, Ane N. Johansen, Bjørn H. Samset, and Daniel M. Westervelt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-948, 2025
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We analyze various projections of African aerosol emissions and their potential impacts on climate and public health. We find that future emissions vary widely across emission projections, with differences in sectoral emission distributions. Using the Oslo chemical transport model, we show that air pollution exposure in some regions of Africa could increase significantly by 2050, increasing pollution-related deaths, with most scenarios projecting aerosol-induced warming over sub-Saharan Africa.
Mingxuan Wu, Hailong Wang, Zheng Lu, Xiaohong Liu, Huisheng Bian, David Cohen, Yan Feng, Mian Chin, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Vlassis A. Karydis, Marianne T. Lund, Gunnar Myhre, Andrea Pozzer, Michael Schulz, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, Svetlana G. Tsyro, and Shaocheng Xie
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-235, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-235, 2025
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A key challenge in simulating the lifecycle of nitrate aerosol in global climate models is to accurately represent mass size distribution of nitrate aerosol, which lacks sufficient observational constraints. We found that most climate models underestimate the mass fraction of fine-mode nitrate at surface in all regions. Our study highlights the importance of gas-aerosol partitioning parameterization and simulation of dust and sea salt in correctly simulating mass size distribution of nitrate.
Mariya Petrenko, Ralph Kahn, Mian Chin, Susanne E. Bauer, Tommi Bergman, Huisheng Bian, Gabriele Curci, Ben Johnson, Johannes W. Kaiser, Zak Kipling, Harri Kokkola, Xiaohong Liu, Keren Mezuman, Tero Mielonen, Gunnar Myhre, Xiaohua Pan, Anna Protonotariou, Samuel Remy, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Hailong Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Kai Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1545–1567, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1545-2025, 2025
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We compared smoke plume simulations from 11 global models to each other and to satellite smoke amount observations aimed at constraining smoke source strength. In regions where plumes are thick and background aerosol is low, models and satellites compare well. However, the input emission inventory tends to underestimate in many places, and particle property and loss rate assumptions vary enormously among models, causing uncertainties that require systematic in situ measurements to resolve.
Maryam Ramezani Ziarani, Miriam Sinnhuber, Thomas Reddmann, Bernd Funke, Stefan Bender, and Michael Prather
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-227, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for GMD
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Our study aims to present a new method for incorporating top-down solar forcing into stratospheric ozone relying on linearized ozone scheme. The addition of geomagnetic forcing led to significant ozone losses in the polar upper stratosphere of both hemispheres due to the catalytic cycles involving NOy. In addition to the particle precipitation effect, accounting for solar UV variability in the ICON-ART model leads to the changes in ozone in the tropical stratosphere.
William J. Collins, Fiona M. O'Connor, Connor R. Barker, Rachael E. Byrom, Sebastian D. Eastham, Øivind Hodnebrog, Patrick Jöckel, Eloise A. Marais, Mariano Mertens, Gunnar Myhre, Matthias Nützel, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Laura Stecher, Larry W. Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Gregory Faluvegi, Ulas Im, Lee T. Murray, Drew Shindell, Kostas Tsigaridis, Nathan Luke Abraham, and James Keeble
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3698, 2024
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If reductions aren’t implemented to limit emissions of pollutants that produce ozone then we calculate that this will cause a warming of climate. We assess how the future warming from ozone is affected by changing meteorological variables such as clouds and atmospheric temperatures. We find that reductions in high cloud cover tend to slightly reduce the warming from ozone.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Rachael Byrom, Øivind Hodnebrog, Caroline Jouan, and Gunnar Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13361–13370, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13361-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13361-2024, 2024
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In 2020, new regulations by the International Maritime Organization regarding sulfur emissions came into force, reducing emissions of SO2 from the shipping sector by approximately 80 %. In this study, we use multiple models to calculate how much the Earth energy balance changed due to the emission reduction or the so-called effective radiative forcing. The calculated effective radiative forcing is weak, comparable to the effect of the increase in CO2 over the last 2 to 3 years.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Magne Aldrin, Terje K. Berntsen, Marit Holden, Ragnar Bang Huseby, Gunnar Myhre, and Trude Storelvmo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1435–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1435-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1435-2024, 2024
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Climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing are central quantities in climate science that are uncertain and contribute to the spread in climate projections. To constrain them, we use observations of temperature and ocean heat content as well as prior knowledge of radiative forcings over the industrialized period. The estimates are sensitive to how aerosol cooling evolved over the latter part of the 20th century, and a strong aerosol forcing trend in the 1960s–1970s is not supported by our analysis.
Jinbo Xie, Qi Tang, Michael Prather, Jadwiga Richter, and Shixuan Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1927, 2024
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Analysis of the interaction between the climate and ozone in the stratosphere is complicated by the in-ability climate model in simulating the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) – an important climate mode in the stratosphere. We use a set of model simulation that realistically simulate QBO and a novel ozone diagnostic tool to separate the temperature and circulation-driven QBO impact. These are important for diagnosing model-model differences in the QBO-ozone responses for climate projections.
Hanqin Tian, Naiqing Pan, Rona L. Thompson, Josep G. Canadell, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Pierre Regnier, Eric A. Davidson, Michael Prather, Philippe Ciais, Marilena Muntean, Shufen Pan, Wilfried Winiwarter, Sönke Zaehle, Feng Zhou, Robert B. Jackson, Hermann W. Bange, Sarah Berthet, Zihao Bian, Daniele Bianchi, Alexander F. Bouwman, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Geoffrey Dutton, Minpeng Hu, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Angela Landolfi, Ronny Lauerwald, Ya Li, Chaoqun Lu, Taylor Maavara, Manfredi Manizza, Dylan B. Millet, Jens Mühle, Prabir K. Patra, Glen P. Peters, Xiaoyu Qin, Peter Raymond, Laure Resplandy, Judith A. Rosentreter, Hao Shi, Qing Sun, Daniele Tonina, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Junjie Wang, Kelley C. Wells, Luke M. Western, Chris Wilson, Jia Yang, Yuanzhi Yao, Yongfa You, and Qing Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2543–2604, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas 273 times more potent than carbon dioxide, have increased by 25 % since the preindustrial period, with the highest observed growth rate in 2020 and 2021. This rapid growth rate has primarily been due to a 40 % increase in anthropogenic emissions since 1980. Observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded the worst-case climate scenario, underscoring the importance of reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Bradley Hall, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan P. Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Blair Trewin, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Carlo Buontempo, Samantha Burgess, Chiara Cagnazzo, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andrew Gettelman, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Jan C. Minx, Gunnar Myhre, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Elisa Majamäki, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Margreet van Marle, Rachel M. Hoesly, Robert Rohde, Dominik Schumacher, Guido van der Werf, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Xuebin Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024
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This paper tracks some key indicators of global warming through time, from 1850 through to the end of 2023. It is designed to give an authoritative estimate of global warming to date and its causes. We find that in 2023, global warming reached 1.3 °C and is increasing at over 0.2 °C per decade. This is caused by all-time-high greenhouse gas emissions.
Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2387–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, 2024
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Climate scientists want to better understand modern climate change. Thus, climate model experiments are performed and compared. The results of climate model experiments differ, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. This article gives insights into the challenges and outlines opportunities for further improving the understanding of climate change. It is based on views of a group of experts in atmospheric composition–climate interactions.
George Jordan, Florent Malavelle, Ying Chen, Amy Peace, Eliza Duncan, Daniel G. Partridge, Paul Kim, Duncan Watson-Parris, Toshihiko Takemura, David Neubauer, Gunnar Myhre, Ragnhild Skeie, Anton Laakso, and James Haywood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1939–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1939-2024, 2024
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The 2014–15 Holuhraun eruption caused a huge aerosol plume in an otherwise unpolluted region, providing a chance to study how aerosol alters cloud properties. This two-part study uses observations and models to quantify this relationship’s impact on the Earth’s energy budget. Part 1 suggests the models capture the observed spatial and chemical evolution of the plume, yet no model plume is exact. Understanding these differences is key for Part 2, where changes to cloud properties are explored.
Hsiang-He Lee, Qi Tang, and Michael Prather
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-203, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-203, 2024
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The E3SM Chemistry diagnostics package (ChemDyg) is a software tool, which is designed for the global climate model (E3SM) chemistry development. ChemDyg generates several diagnostic plots and tables for model-to-model and model-to-observation comparison, including 2-dimentional contour mapping plots, diurnal and annual cycle, time-series plots, and comprehensive processing tables. This paper is to introduce the details of each diagnostics set and its required input data formats in ChemDyg.
Hamza Ahsan, Hailong Wang, Jingbo Wu, Mingxuan Wu, Steven J. Smith, Susanne Bauer, Harrison Suchyta, Dirk Olivié, Gunnar Myhre, Hitoshi Matsui, Huisheng Bian, Jean-François Lamarque, Ken Carslaw, Larry Horowitz, Leighton Regayre, Mian Chin, Michael Schulz, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Vaishali Naik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14779–14799, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14779-2023, 2023
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We examine the impact of the assumed effective height of SO2 injection, SO2 and BC emission seasonality, and the assumed fraction of SO2 emissions injected as SO4 on climate and chemistry model results. We find that the SO2 injection height has a large impact on surface SO2 concentrations and, in some models, radiative flux. These assumptions are a
hiddensource of inter-model variability and may be leading to bias in some climate model results.
Michael J. Prather, Hao Guo, and Xin Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3299–3349, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3299-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3299-2023, 2023
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The Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) measured the chemical composition in air parcels from 0–12 km altitude on 2 km horizontal by 80 m vertical scales for four seasons, resolving most scales of chemical heterogeneity. ATom is one of the first missions designed to calculate the chemical evolution of each parcel, providing semi-global diurnal budgets for ozone and methane. Observations covered the remote troposphere: Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins, Southern Ocean, Arctic basin, Antarctica.
Marianne Tronstad Lund, Gunnar Myhre, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, and Zbigniew Klimont
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6647–6662, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6647-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6647-2023, 2023
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Here we show that differences, in magnitude and trend, between recent global anthropogenic emission inventories have a notable influence on simulated regional abundances of anthropogenic aerosol over the 1990–2019 period. This, in turn, affects estimates of radiative forcing. Our findings form a basis for comparing existing and upcoming studies on anthropogenic aerosols using different emission inventories.
Michael J. Prather, Lucien Froidevaux, and Nathaniel J. Livesey
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 843–849, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-843-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-843-2023, 2023
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From satellite data for nitrous oxide (N2O), ozone and temperature, we calculate the monthly loss of N2O and find it is increasing faster than expected, resulting in a shorter lifetime, which reduces the impact of anthropogenic emissions. We identify the cause as enhanced vertical lofting of high-N2O air into the tropical middle stratosphere, where it is destroyed photochemically. Because global warming is due in part to N2O, this finding presents a new negative climate-chemistry feedback.
Hao Guo, Clare M. Flynn, Michael J. Prather, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Louisa Emmons, Forrest Lacey, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Gus Correa, Lee T. Murray, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jason M. St. Clair, Michelle Kim, John Crounse, Glenn Diskin, Joshua DiGangi, Bruce C. Daube, Roisin Commane, Kathryn McKain, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Chelsea Thompson, Thomas F. Hanisco, Donald Blake, Nicola J. Blake, Eric C. Apel, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, James W. Elkins, Eric J. Hintsa, Fred L. Moore, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 99–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-99-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-99-2023, 2023
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We have prepared a unique and unusual result from the recent ATom aircraft mission: a measurement-based derivation of the production and loss rates of ozone and methane over the ocean basins. These are the key products of chemistry models used in assessments but have thus far lacked observational metrics. It also shows the scales of variability of atmospheric chemical rates and provides a major challenge to the atmospheric models.
Johannes Quaas, Hailing Jia, Chris Smith, Anna Lea Albright, Wenche Aas, Nicolas Bellouin, Olivier Boucher, Marie Doutriaux-Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Daniel Grosvenor, Stuart Jenkins, Zbigniew Klimont, Norman G. Loeb, Xiaoyan Ma, Vaishali Naik, Fabien Paulot, Philip Stier, Martin Wild, Gunnar Myhre, and Michael Schulz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12221–12239, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, 2022
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Pollution particles cool climate and offset part of the global warming. However, they are washed out by rain and thus their effect responds quickly to changes in emissions. We show multiple datasets to demonstrate that aerosol emissions and their concentrations declined in many regions influenced by human emissions, as did the effects on clouds. Consequently, the cooling impact on the Earth energy budget became smaller. This change in trend implies a relative warming.
Qirui Zhong, Nick Schutgens, Guido van der Werf, Twan van Noije, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Tero Mielonen, Alf Kirkevåg, Øyvind Seland, Harri Kokkola, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, David Neubauer, Zak Kipling, Hitoshi Matsui, Paul Ginoux, Toshihiko Takemura, Philippe Le Sager, Samuel Rémy, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Kai Zhang, Jialei Zhu, Svetlana G. Tsyro, Gabriele Curci, Anna Protonotariou, Ben Johnson, Joyce E. Penner, Nicolas Bellouin, Ragnhild B. Skeie, and Gunnar Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11009–11032, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11009-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11009-2022, 2022
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Aerosol optical depth (AOD) errors for biomass burning aerosol (BBA) are evaluated in 18 global models against satellite datasets. Notwithstanding biases in satellite products, they allow model evaluations. We observe large and diverse model biases due to errors in BBA. Further interpretations of AOD diversities suggest large biases exist in key processes for BBA which require better constraining. These results can contribute to further model improvement and development.
Michael J. Prather
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 703–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-703-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric CO2 fluctuations point to changes in fossil fuel emissions plus natural and perturbed variations in the natural carbon cycle. One unstudied source of variability is the stratosphere, where the influx of aged CO2-depleted air can cause surface fluctuations. Using modeling and, separately, scaling the observed N2O variability, I find that stratosphere-driven surface variability in CO2 is not a significant uncertainty (at most 10 % of the observed interannual variability).
Daniel J. Ruiz and Michael J. Prather
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2079–2093, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2079-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2079-2022, 2022
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The stratosphere is an important source of tropospheric ozone, which affects climate, chemistry, and air quality, but is extremely difficult to quantify given the large production and loss terms in the troposphere. Here, we use other gases that are well observed and quantified as a reference to test our simulations of ozone transport in the atmosphere. This allows us to better constrain the stratospheric source of ozone and also offers guidance to improve future simulations of ozone transport.
Maria Sand, Bjørn H. Samset, Gunnar Myhre, Jonas Gliß, Susanne E. Bauer, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Paul Ginoux, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Philippe Le Sager, Marianne T. Lund, Hitoshi Matsui, Twan van Noije, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Samuel Remy, Michael Schulz, Philip Stier, Camilla W. Stjern, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana G. Tsyro, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15929–15947, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15929-2021, 2021
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Absorption of shortwave radiation by aerosols can modify precipitation and clouds but is poorly constrained in models. A total of 15 different aerosol models from AeroCom phase III have reported total aerosol absorption, and for the first time, 11 of these models have reported in a consistent experiment the contributions to absorption from black carbon, dust, and organic aerosol. Here, we document the model diversity in aerosol absorption.
Tao Tang, Drew Shindell, Yuqiang Zhang, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gunnar Myhre, Gregory Faluvegi, Bjørn H. Samset, Timothy Andrews, Dirk Olivié, Toshihiko Takemura, and Xuhui Lee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13797–13809, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13797-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13797-2021, 2021
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Previous studies showed that black carbon (BC) could warm the surface with decreased incoming radiation. With climate models, we found that the surface energy redistribution plays a more crucial role in surface temperature compared with other forcing agents. Though BC could reduce the surface heating, the energy dissipates less efficiently, which is manifested by reduced convective and evaporative cooling, thereby warming the surface.
Hao Guo, Clare M. Flynn, Michael J. Prather, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Louisa Emmons, Forrest Lacey, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Gus Correa, Lee T. Murray, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jason M. St. Clair, Michelle Kim, John Crounse, Glenn Diskin, Joshua DiGangi, Bruce C. Daube, Roisin Commane, Kathryn McKain, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Chelsea Thompson, Thomas F. Hanisco, Donald Blake, Nicola J. Blake, Eric C. Apel, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, James W. Elkins, Eric J. Hintsa, Fred L. Moore, and Steven Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13729–13746, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13729-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13729-2021, 2021
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The NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission built a climatology of the chemical composition of tropospheric air parcels throughout the middle of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The level of detail allows us to reconstruct the photochemical budgets of O3 and CH4 over these vast, remote regions. We find that most of the chemical heterogeneity is captured at the resolution used in current global chemistry models and that the majority of reactivity occurs in the
hottest20 % of parcels.
Qi Tang, Michael J. Prather, Juno Hsu, Daniel J. Ruiz, Philip J. Cameron-Smith, Shaocheng Xie, and Jean-Christophe Golaz
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1219–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1219-2021, 2021
Gillian D. Thornhill, William J. Collins, Ryan J. Kramer, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Piers M. Forster, Larry W. Horowitz, Ben Johnson, James Keeble, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Jane P. Mulcahy, Gunnar Myhre, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Christopher J. Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Tongwen Wu, Guang Zeng, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 853–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, 2021
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This paper is a study of how different constituents in the atmosphere, such as aerosols and gases like methane and ozone, affect the energy balance in the atmosphere. Different climate models were run using the same inputs to allow an easy comparison of the results and to understand where the models differ. We found the effect of aerosols is to reduce warming in the atmosphere, but this effect varies between models. Reactions between gases are also important in affecting climate.
Jonas Gliß, Augustin Mortier, Michael Schulz, Elisabeth Andrews, Yves Balkanski, Susanne E. Bauer, Anna M. K. Benedictow, Huisheng Bian, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Mian Chin, Paul Ginoux, Jan J. Griesfeller, Andreas Heckel, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Paolo Laj, Philippe Le Sager, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Hitoshi Matsui, Gunnar Myhre, David Neubauer, Twan van Noije, Peter North, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Samuel Rémy, Larisa Sogacheva, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Svetlana G. Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 87–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-87-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-87-2021, 2021
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Simulated aerosol optical properties as well as the aerosol life cycle are investigated for 14 global models participating in the AeroCom initiative. Considerable diversity is found in the simulated aerosol species emissions and lifetimes, also resulting in a large diversity in the simulated aerosol mass, composition, and optical properties. A comparison with observations suggests that, on average, current models underestimate the direct effect of aerosol on the atmosphere radiation budget.
Camilla W. Stjern, Bjørn H. Samset, Olivier Boucher, Trond Iversen, Jean-François Lamarque, Gunnar Myhre, Drew Shindell, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13467–13480, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13467-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13467-2020, 2020
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The span between the warmest and coldest temperatures over a day is a climate parameter that influences both agriculture and human health. Using data from 10 models, we show how individual climate drivers such as greenhouse gases and aerosols produce distinctly different responses in this parameter in high-emission regions. Given the high uncertainty in future aerosol emissions, this improved understanding of the temperature responses may ultimately help these regions prepare for future changes.
Augustin Mortier, Jonas Gliß, Michael Schulz, Wenche Aas, Elisabeth Andrews, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Paul Ginoux, Jenny Hand, Brent Holben, Hua Zhang, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Paolo Laj, Thibault Lurton, Gunnar Myhre, David Neubauer, Dirk Olivié, Knut von Salzen, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13355–13378, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13355-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13355-2020, 2020
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We present a multiparameter analysis of the aerosol trends over the last 2 decades in the different regions of the world. In most of the regions, ground-based observations show a decrease in aerosol content in both the total atmospheric column and at the surface. The use of climate models, assessed against these observations, reveals however an increase in the total aerosol load, which is not seen with the sole use of observation due to partial coverage in space and time.
Xiaoning Xie, Gunnar Myhre, Xiaodong Liu, Xinzhou Li, Zhengguo Shi, Hongli Wang, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Drew Shindell, Toshihiko Takemura, and Yangang Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11823–11839, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11823-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11823-2020, 2020
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Black carbon (BC) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) enhance precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) of Asian summer monsoon (ASM). Further analysis reveals distinct mechanisms controlling BC- and GHG-induced ASM P–E increases. The change in ASM P–E by BC is dominated by the dynamic effect of enhanced large-scale monsoon circulation, the GHG-induced change by the thermodynamic effect of increasing atmospheric water vapor. This results from different atmospheric temperature feedbacks due to BC and GHGs.
María A. Burgos, Elisabeth Andrews, Gloria Titos, Angela Benedetti, Huisheng Bian, Virginie Buchard, Gabriele Curci, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Anton Laakso, Julie Letertre-Danczak, Marianne T. Lund, Hitoshi Matsui, Gunnar Myhre, Cynthia Randles, Michael Schulz, Twan van Noije, Kai Zhang, Lucas Alados-Arboledas, Urs Baltensperger, Anne Jefferson, James Sherman, Junying Sun, Ernest Weingartner, and Paul Zieger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10231–10258, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10231-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10231-2020, 2020
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We investigate how well models represent the enhancement in scattering coefficients due to particle water uptake, and perform an evaluation of several implementation schemes used in ten Earth system models. Our results show the importance of the parameterization of hygroscopicity and model chemistry as drivers of some of the observed diversity amongst model estimates. The definition of dry conditions and the phenomena taking place in this relative humidity range also impact the model evaluation.
Christopher J. Smith, Ryan J. Kramer, Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, William Collins, Adriana Sima, Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Seiji Yukimoto, Jason Cole, David Paynter, Hideo Shiogama, Fiona M. O'Connor, Eddy Robertson, Andy Wiltshire, Timothy Andrews, Cécile Hannay, Ron Miller, Larissa Nazarenko, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Stephanie Fiedler, Anna Lewinschal, Chloe Mackallah, Martin Dix, Robert Pincus, and Piers M. Forster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9591–9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, 2020
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The spread in effective radiative forcing for both CO2 and aerosols is narrower in the latest CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) generation than in CMIP5. For the case of CO2 it is likely that model radiation parameterisations have improved. Tropospheric and stratospheric radiative adjustments to the forcing behave differently for different forcing agents, and there is still significant diversity in how clouds respond to forcings, particularly for total anthropogenic forcing.
Gunnar Myhre, Bjørn H. Samset, Christian W. Mohr, Kari Alterskjær, Yves Balkanski, Nicolas Bellouin, Mian Chin, James Haywood, Øivind Hodnebrog, Stefan Kinne, Guangxing Lin, Marianne T. Lund, Joyce E. Penner, Michael Schulz, Nick Schutgens, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, and Kai Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8855–8865, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8855-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8855-2020, 2020
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The radiative forcing of the direct aerosol effects can be decomposed into clear-sky and cloudy-sky portions. In this study we use observational methods and two sets of multi-model global aerosol simulations over the industrial era to show that the contribution from cloudy-sky regions is likely weak.
Tao Tang, Drew Shindell, Yuqiang Zhang, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gunnar Myhre, Camilla W. Stjern, Gregory Faluvegi, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8251–8266, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8251-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8251-2020, 2020
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By using climate simulations, we found that both CO2 and black carbon aerosols could reduce low-level cloud cover, which is mainly due to changes in relative humidity, cloud water, dynamics, and stability. Because the impact of cloud on solar radiation is in effect only during daytime, such cloud reduction could enhance solar heating, thereby raising the daily maximum temperature by 10–50 %, varying by region, which has great implications for extreme climate events and socioeconomic activity.
Nicolas Bellouin, Will Davies, Keith P. Shine, Johannes Quaas, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Lindsay Lee, Leighton Regayre, Guy Brasseur, Natalia Sudarchikova, Idir Bouarar, Olivier Boucher, and Gunnar Myhre
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1649–1677, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1649-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1649-2020, 2020
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Quantifying the imbalance in the Earth's energy budget caused by human activities is important to understand and predict climate changes. This study presents new estimates of the imbalance caused by changes in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, and particles of pollution. Over the period 2003–2017, the overall imbalance has been positive, indicating that the climate system has gained energy and will warm further.
Julie M. Nicely, Bryan N. Duncan, Thomas F. Hanisco, Glenn M. Wolfe, Ross J. Salawitch, Makoto Deushi, Amund S. Haslerud, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas E. Kinnison, Andrew Klekociuk, Michael E. Manyin, Virginie Marécal, Olaf Morgenstern, Lee T. Murray, Gunnar Myhre, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, Andrea Pozzer, Ilaria Quaglia, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Susan Strahan, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Daniel M. Westervelt, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1341–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, 2020
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Differences in methane lifetime among global models are large and poorly understood. We use a neural network method and simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative to quantify the factors influencing methane lifetime spread among models and variations over time. UV photolysis, tropospheric ozone, and nitrogen oxides drive large model differences, while the same factors plus specific humidity contribute to a decreasing trend in methane lifetime between 1980 and 2015.
Marianne T. Lund, Gunnar Myhre, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13827–13839, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13827-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13827-2019, 2019
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Atmospheric aerosols play an integral role in shaping local and global climate by modifying the energy balance, clouds and precipitation. They are also a leading cause of premature mortality in many areas. New scenarios provide projections of emissions until 2100 given strong, medium or weak air pollution control stringency. We quantify the consequent regional and global aerosol loading and radiative forcing, showing a large spread at the end of the century and regional differences in trends.
Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Bjørn H. Samset, Kari Alterskjær, Timothy Andrews, Olivier Boucher, Gregory Faluvegi, Dagmar Fläschner, Piers M. Forster, Matthew Kasoar, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Dirk Olivié, Thomas B. Richardson, Dilshad Shawki, Drew Shindell, Keith P. Shine, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12887–12899, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12887-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12887-2019, 2019
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Different greenhouse gases (e.g. CO2) and aerosols (e.g. black carbon) impact the Earth’s water cycle differently. Here we investigate how various gases and particles impact atmospheric water vapour and its lifetime, i.e., the average number of days that water vapour stays in the atmosphere after evaporation and before precipitation. We find that this lifetime could increase substantially by the end of this century, indicating that important changes in precipitation patterns are excepted.
Marianne Tronstad Lund, Gunnar Myhre, Amund Søvde Haslerud, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Jan Griesfeller, Stephen Matthew Platt, Rajesh Kumar, Cathrine Lund Myhre, and Michael Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4909–4931, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4909-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4909-2018, 2018
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Atmospheric aerosols play a key role in the climate system, but their exact impact on the energy balance remains uncertain. Accurate representation of the geographical distribution and properties of aerosols in global models is key to reduce this uncertainty. Here we use a new emission inventory and a range of observations to carefully validate a state-of-the-art model and present an updated estimate of the net direct effect of anthropogenic aerosols since the preindustrial era.
Samuel R. Hall, Kirk Ullmann, Michael J. Prather, Clare M. Flynn, Lee T. Murray, Arlene M. Fiore, Gustavo Correa, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jonathan Guth, Béatrice Josse, Johannes Flemming, Vincent Huijnen, N. Luke Abraham, and Alex T. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16809–16828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16809-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16809-2018, 2018
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Photolysis (J rates) initiates and drives atmospheric chemistry, and Js are perturbed by factors of 2 by clouds. The NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) Mission provides the first comprehensive observations on how clouds perturb Js through the remote Pacific and Atlantic basins. We compare these cloud-perturbation J statistics with those from nine global chemistry models. While basic patterns agree, there is a large spread across models, and all lack some basic features of the observations.
Sarah A. Strode, Junhua Liu, Leslie Lait, Róisín Commane, Bruce Daube, Steven Wofsy, Austin Conaty, Paul Newman, and Michael Prather
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10955–10971, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10955-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10955-2018, 2018
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The GEOS-5 atmospheric model provided forecasts for the Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom). GEOS-5 shows skill in simulating the carbon monoxide (CO) measured in ATom-1. African fires contribute to high CO over the tropical Atlantic, but non-fire sources are the main contributors elsewhere. ATom aims to provide a chemical climatology, so we consider whether ATom-1 occurred during a typical summer month. Satellite observations suggest ATom-1 occurred in a clean but not exceptional month.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Terje Berntsen, Magne Aldrin, Marit Holden, and Gunnar Myhre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 879–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-879-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-879-2018, 2018
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A key question in climate science is how the global mean surface temperature responds to changes in greenhouse gases. This dependency is quantified by the climate sensitivity, which is determined by the complex feedbacks in the climate system. In this study observations of past climate change are used to estimate this sensitivity. Our estimate is consistent with values for the equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by complex climate models but sensitive to the use of uncertain input data.
Tao Tang, Drew Shindell, Bjørn H. Samset, Oliviér Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Jana Sillmann, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Timothy Andrews, Gregory Faluvegi, Dagmar Fläschner, Trond Iversen, Matthew Kasoar, Viatcheslav Kharin, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Dirk Olivié, Thomas Richardson, Camilla W. Stjern, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8439–8452, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8439-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8439-2018, 2018
Michael J. Prather, Clare M. Flynn, Xin Zhu, Stephen D. Steenrod, Sarah A. Strode, Arlene M. Fiore, Gustavo Correa, Lee T. Murray, and Jean-Francois Lamarque
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 2653–2668, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2653-2018, 2018
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A new protocol for merging in situ atmospheric chemistry measurements with 3-D models is developed. This technique can identify the most reactive air parcels in terms of tropospheric production/loss of O3 & CH4. This approach highlights differences in 6 global chemistry models even with composition specified. Thus in situ measurements from, e.g., NASA's ATom mission can be used to develop a chemical climatology of, not only the key species, but also the rates of key reactions in each air parcel.
Sunil Vadakkepuliyambatta, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Gunnar Myhre, Stig B. Dalsøren, Anna Silyakova, Norbert Schmidbauer, Cathrine Lund Myhre, and Jürgen Mienert
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-110, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-110, 2017
Preprint retracted
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Release of methane, one of the major greenhouse gases, from melting hydrates has been proposed as a mechanism that accelerated global warming in the past. We focus on Arctic Ocean warming as a robust case study for accelerated melting of hydrates, assessing the impact of Arctic methane release on global air temperatures during the next century. Contrary to popular belief, it is shown that methane emissions from melting hydrates from the Arctic seafloor is not a major driver of global warming.
Ruth M. Doherty, Clara Orbe, Guang Zeng, David A. Plummer, Michael J. Prather, Oliver Wild, Meiyun Lin, Drew T. Shindell, and Ian A. Mackenzie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14219–14237, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14219-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14219-2017, 2017
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We investigate how climate change impacts global air pollution transport. To study transport changes, we use a carbon monoxide (CO) tracer species emitted from global sources. We find robust and consistent changes in CO-tracer distributions in climate change simulations performed by four chemistry–climate models in different seasons. We highlight the importance of the co-location of emission source regions and controlling transport processes in determining future pollution transport.
Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, Susanne E. Bauer, Marianne T. Lund, Vlassis A. Karydis, Tom L. Kucsera, Xiaohua Pan, Andrea Pozzer, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Stephen D. Steenrod, Kengo Sudo, Kostas Tsigaridis, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, and Svetlana G. Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12911–12940, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12911-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12911-2017, 2017
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Atmospheric nitrate contributes notably to total aerosol mass in the present day and is likely to be more important over the next century, with a projected decline in SO2 and NOx emissions and increase in NH3 emissions. This paper investigates atmospheric nitrate using multiple global models and measurements. The study is part of the AeroCom phase III activity. The study is the first attempt to look at global atmospheric nitrate simulation at physical and chemical process levels.
Maria Sand, Bjørn H. Samset, Yves Balkanski, Susanne Bauer, Nicolas Bellouin, Terje K. Berntsen, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Thomas Diehl, Richard Easter, Steven J. Ghan, Trond Iversen, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-François Lamarque, Guangxing Lin, Xiaohong Liu, Gan Luo, Gunnar Myhre, Twan van Noije, Joyce E. Penner, Michael Schulz, Øyvind Seland, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Fangqun Yu, Kai Zhang, and Hua Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12197–12218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12197-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12197-2017, 2017
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The role of aerosols in the changing polar climate is not well understood and the aerosols are poorly constrained in the models. In this study we have compared output from 16 different aerosol models with available observations at both poles. We show that the model median is representative of the observations, but the model spread is large. The Arctic direct aerosol radiative effect over the industrial area is positive during spring due to black carbon and negative during summer due to sulfate.
Michael J. Prather, Xin Zhu, Clare M. Flynn, Sarah A. Strode, Jose M. Rodriguez, Stephen D. Steenrod, Junhua Liu, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Larry W. Horowitz, Jingqiu Mao, Lee T. Murray, Drew T. Shindell, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9081–9102, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9081-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9081-2017, 2017
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We present a new approach for comparing atmospheric chemistry models with measurements based on what these models are used to do, i.e., calculate changes in ozone and methane, prime greenhouse gases. This method anticipates a new type of measurements from the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission. In comparing the mixture of species within air parcels, we focus on those responsible for key chemical changes and weight these parcels by their chemical reactivity.
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha, Karina von Schuckmann, David J. Beerling, Junji Cao, Shaun Marcott, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Michael J. Prather, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeremy Shakun, Pete Smith, Andrew Lacis, Gary Russell, and Reto Ruedy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 577–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, 2017
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Global temperature now exceeds +1.25 °C relative to 1880–1920, similar to warmth of the Eemian period. Keeping warming less than 1.5 °C or CO2 below 350 ppm now requires extraction of CO2 from the air. If rapid phaseout of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, most extraction can be via improved agricultural and forestry practices. In contrast, continued high emissions places a burden on young people of massive technological CO2 extraction with large risks, high costs and uncertain feasibility.
Juno Hsu, Michael J. Prather, Philip Cameron-Smith, Alex Veidenbaum, and Alex Nicolau
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2525–2545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2525-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2525-2017, 2017
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Solar-J is a high-fidelity solar radiative transfer Fortran 90 code. It has been developed for consistently calculating both the photolysis rates of important chemical species and the heating rates of the atmosphere and the Earth's surface. Its spectral range spans from 177 nm to 12 microns. It can be easily dropped in as a module in global climate–chemistry models.
Gunnar Myhre, Wenche Aas, Ribu Cherian, William Collins, Greg Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Piers Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Zbigniew Klimont, Marianne T. Lund, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Dirk Olivié, Michael Prather, Johannes Quaas, Bjørn H. Samset, Jordan L. Schnell, Michael Schulz, Drew Shindell, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Svetlana Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2709–2720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, 2017
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Over the past decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990–2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The global mean radiative forcing is more strongly positive than reported in IPCC AR5.
William J. Collins, Jean-François Lamarque, Michael Schulz, Olivier Boucher, Veronika Eyring, Michaela I. Hegglin, Amanda Maycock, Gunnar Myhre, Michael Prather, Drew Shindell, and Steven J. Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 585–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, 2017
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We have designed a set of climate model experiments called the Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). These are designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases in the climate models that are used to simulate past and future climate. We hope that many climate modelling centres will choose to run these experiments to help understand the contribution of aerosols and chemistry to climate change.
Bojan Sič, Laaziz El Amraoui, Andrea Piacentini, Virginie Marécal, Emanuele Emili, Daniel Cariolle, Michael Prather, and Jean-Luc Attié
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 5535–5554, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5535-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5535-2016, 2016
Nicolas Bellouin, Laura Baker, Øivind Hodnebrog, Dirk Olivié, Ribu Cherian, Claire Macintosh, Bjørn Samset, Anna Esteve, Borgar Aamaas, Johannes Quaas, and Gunnar Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13885–13910, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13885-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13885-2016, 2016
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This study uses global climate models to quantify how strongly man-made emissions of selected pollutants modify the energy budget of the Earth. The pollutants studied interact directly and indirectly with sunlight and terrestrial radiation and remain a relatively short time in the atmosphere, leading to regional and seasonal variations in their impacts. This new data set is useful to compare the potential climate impacts of different pollutants in support of policies to reduce climate change.
Camilla Weum Stjern, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Gunnar Myhre, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Yanko Davila, Frank Dentener, Louisa Emmons, Johannes Flemming, Amund Søvde Haslerud, Daven Henze, Jan Eiof Jonson, Tom Kucsera, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Michael Schulz, Kengo Sudo, Toshihiko Takemura, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13579–13599, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13579-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13579-2016, 2016
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Air pollution can reach distant regions through intercontinental transport. Here we first present results from the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 exercise, where many models performed the same set of coordinated emission-reduction experiments. We find that mitigations have considerable extra-regional effects, and show that this is particularly true for black carbon emissions, as long-range transport elevates aerosols to higher levels where their radiative influence is stronger.
B. Quennehen, J.-C. Raut, K. S. Law, N. Daskalakis, G. Ancellet, C. Clerbaux, S.-W. Kim, M. T. Lund, G. Myhre, D. J. L. Olivié, S. Safieddine, R. B. Skeie, J. L. Thomas, S. Tsyro, A. Bazureau, N. Bellouin, M. Hu, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, S. Myriokefalitakis, J. Quaas, S. T. Rumbold, M. Schulz, R. Cherian, A. Shimizu, J. Wang, S.-C. Yoon, and T. Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10765–10792, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10765-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10765-2016, 2016
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This paper evaluates the ability of six global models and one regional model in reproducing short-lived pollutants (defined here as ozone and its precursors, aerosols and black carbon) concentrations over Asia using satellite, ground-based and airborne observations.
Key findings are that models homogeneously reproduce the trace gas observations although nitrous oxides are underestimated, whereas the aerosol distributions are heterogeneously reproduced, implicating important uncertainties.
Stig B. Dalsøren, Cathrine L. Myhre, Gunnar Myhre, Angel J. Gomez-Pelaez, Ole A. Søvde, Ivar S. A. Isaksen, Ray F. Weiss, and Christina M. Harth
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3099–3126, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3099-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3099-2016, 2016
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Methane is a key greenhouse gas. Observations at surface sites show a more than 10 % increase over the period 1984–2012. Using an atmospheric model we calculate a growth in the atmospheric chemical methane loss the last decades. Without this, the rise in atmospheric methane would have been even higher. The model reproduces trends and short-term variations in observation data. However, some discrepancies in model performance question the accuracy in estimates of emission increases in Asia.
J. L. Schnell, M. J. Prather, B. Josse, V. Naik, L. W. Horowitz, P. Cameron-Smith, D. Bergmann, G. Zeng, D. A. Plummer, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, D. T. Shindell, G. Faluvegi, and S. A. Strode
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10581–10596, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10581-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10581-2015, 2015
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We test global chemistry--climate models in their ability to simulate present-day surface ozone. Models are tested against observed hourly ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1°x1° grid cells. Using novel metrics, we find most models match the shape but not the amplitude of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles and match the pattern but not the magnitude of summer ozone enhancement. Most also match the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes
A. Stohl, B. Aamaas, M. Amann, L. H. Baker, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, O. Boucher, R. Cherian, W. Collins, N. Daskalakis, M. Dusinska, S. Eckhardt, J. S. Fuglestvedt, M. Harju, C. Heyes, Ø. Hodnebrog, J. Hao, U. Im, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, K. S. Law, M. T. Lund, R. Maas, C. R. MacIntosh, G. Myhre, S. Myriokefalitakis, D. Olivié, J. Quaas, B. Quennehen, J.-C. Raut, S. T. Rumbold, B. H. Samset, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, K. P. Shine, R. B. Skeie, S. Wang, K. E. Yttri, and T. Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10529–10566, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015, 2015
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This paper presents a summary of the findings of the ECLIPSE EU project. The project has investigated the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived climate pollutants (especially methane, ozone, aerosols) and has designed a global mitigation strategy that maximizes co-benefits between air quality and climate policy. Transient climate model simulations allowed quantifying the impacts on temperature (e.g., reduction in global warming by 0.22K for the decade 2041-2050) and precipitation.
M. J. Prather
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2587–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2587-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2587-2015, 2015
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A new approach for modeling photolysis rates (J values) in atmospheres with fractional cloud cover has been developed and is implemented as Cloud-J – a multi-scattering eight-stream radiative transfer model for solar radiation based on Fast-J. Using observations of the vertical correlation of cloud layers, Cloud-J provides a practical and accurate method for modeling atmospheric chemistry, which can be extended to solar heating rates.
L. H. Baker, W. J. Collins, D. J. L. Olivié, R. Cherian, Ø. Hodnebrog, G. Myhre, and J. Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8201–8216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8201-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8201-2015, 2015
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We investigate the impact of removing land-based anthropogenic emissions of three aerosol species, using four fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Removing SO2 emissions leads to warming globally, strongest in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and an increase in NH precipitation. Organic and black carbon (OC, BC) have a weaker impact, and less certainty on the response; OC (BC) removal shows a weak overall warming (cooling), and both show small increases in precipitation globally.
R. M. Bright, G. Myhre, R. Astrup, C. Antón-Fernández, and A. H. Strømman
Biogeosciences, 12, 2195–2205, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2195-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2195-2015, 2015
G. Myhre and B. H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2883–2888, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2883-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2883-2015, 2015
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Radiative forcing (RF) of black carbon (BC) in the atmosphere is estimated using radiative transfer codes of various complexities. Here we show that the two-stream radiative transfer codes used most in climate models give overly strong forward scattering, leading to enhanced absorption at the surface and overly weak absorption by BC. Such calculations are found to underestimate RF in all sky conditions by 10% for global mean, relative to the more sophisticated multi-stream model.
B. H. Samset, G. Myhre, A. Herber, Y. Kondo, S.-M. Li, N. Moteki, M. Koike, N. Oshima, J. P. Schwarz, Y. Balkanski, S. E. Bauer, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, H. Bian, M. Chin, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, T. Iversen, A. Kirkevåg, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Lin, X. Liu, J. E. Penner, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, R. B. Skeie, P. Stier, T. Takemura, K. Tsigaridis, and K. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12465–12477, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12465-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12465-2014, 2014
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Far from black carbon (BC) emission sources, present climate models are unable to reproduce flight measurements. By comparing recent models with data, we find that the atmospheric lifetime of BC may be overestimated in models. By adjusting modeled BC concentrations to measurements in remote regions - over oceans and at high altitudes - we arrive at a reduced estimate for BC radiative forcing over the industrial era.
K. Tsigaridis, N. Daskalakis, M. Kanakidou, P. J. Adams, P. Artaxo, R. Bahadur, Y. Balkanski, S. E. Bauer, N. Bellouin, A. Benedetti, T. Bergman, T. K. Berntsen, J. P. Beukes, H. Bian, K. S. Carslaw, M. Chin, G. Curci, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, S. L. Gong, A. Hodzic, C. R. Hoyle, T. Iversen, S. Jathar, J. L. Jimenez, J. W. Kaiser, A. Kirkevåg, D. Koch, H. Kokkola, Y. H Lee, G. Lin, X. Liu, G. Luo, X. Ma, G. W. Mann, N. Mihalopoulos, J.-J. Morcrette, J.-F. Müller, G. Myhre, S. Myriokefalitakis, N. L. Ng, D. O'Donnell, J. E. Penner, L. Pozzoli, K. J. Pringle, L. M. Russell, M. Schulz, J. Sciare, Ø. Seland, D. T. Shindell, S. Sillman, R. B. Skeie, D. Spracklen, T. Stavrakou, S. D. Steenrod, T. Takemura, P. Tiitta, S. Tilmes, H. Tost, T. van Noije, P. G. van Zyl, K. von Salzen, F. Yu, Z. Wang, Z. Wang, R. A. Zaveri, H. Zhang, K. Zhang, Q. Zhang, and X. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10845–10895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10845-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10845-2014, 2014
J. L. Schnell, C. D. Holmes, A. Jangam, and M. J. Prather
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7721–7739, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7721-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7721-2014, 2014
C. D. Holmes, M. J. Prather, and G. C. M. Vinken
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6801–6812, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6801-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6801-2014, 2014
J. Huttunen, A. Arola, G. Myhre, A. V. Lindfors, T. Mielonen, S. Mikkonen, J. S. Schafer, S. N. Tripathi, M. Wild, M. Komppula, and K. E. J. Lehtinen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6103–6110, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6103-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6103-2014, 2014
R. B. Skeie, T. Berntsen, M. Aldrin, M. Holden, and G. Myhre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 139–175, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-139-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-139-2014, 2014
P. H. Lauritzen, P. A. Ullrich, C. Jablonowski, P. A. Bosler, D. Calhoun, A. J. Conley, T. Enomoto, L. Dong, S. Dubey, O. Guba, A. B. Hansen, E. Kaas, J. Kent, J.-F. Lamarque, M. J. Prather, D. Reinert, V. V. Shashkin, W. C. Skamarock, B. Sørensen, M. A. Taylor, and M. A. Tolstykh
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 105–145, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-105-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-105-2014, 2014
M. von Hobe, S. Bekki, S. Borrmann, F. Cairo, F. D'Amato, G. Di Donfrancesco, A. Dörnbrack, A. Ebersoldt, M. Ebert, C. Emde, I. Engel, M. Ern, W. Frey, S. Genco, S. Griessbach, J.-U. Grooß, T. Gulde, G. Günther, E. Hösen, L. Hoffmann, V. Homonnai, C. R. Hoyle, I. S. A. Isaksen, D. R. Jackson, I. M. Jánosi, R. L. Jones, K. Kandler, C. Kalicinsky, A. Keil, S. M. Khaykin, F. Khosrawi, R. Kivi, J. Kuttippurath, J. C. Laube, F. Lefèvre, R. Lehmann, S. Ludmann, B. P. Luo, M. Marchand, J. Meyer, V. Mitev, S. Molleker, R. Müller, H. Oelhaf, F. Olschewski, Y. Orsolini, T. Peter, K. Pfeilsticker, C. Piesch, M. C. Pitts, L. R. Poole, F. D. Pope, F. Ravegnani, M. Rex, M. Riese, T. Röckmann, B. Rognerud, A. Roiger, C. Rolf, M. L. Santee, M. Scheibe, C. Schiller, H. Schlager, M. Siciliani de Cumis, N. Sitnikov, O. A. Søvde, R. Spang, N. Spelten, F. Stordal, O. Sumińska-Ebersoldt, A. Ulanovski, J. Ungermann, S. Viciani, C. M. Volk, M. vom Scheidt, P. von der Gathen, K. Walker, T. Wegner, R. Weigel, S. Weinbruch, G. Wetzel, F. G. Wienhold, I. Wohltmann, W. Woiwode, I. A. K. Young, V. Yushkov, B. Zobrist, and F. Stroh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9233–9268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9233-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9233-2013, 2013
A. Arola, T. F. Eck, J. Huttunen, K. E. J. Lehtinen, A. V. Lindfors, G. Myhre, A. Smirnov, S. N. Tripathi, and H. Yu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7895–7901, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7895-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7895-2013, 2013
V. Naik, A. Voulgarakis, A. M. Fiore, L. W. Horowitz, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Lin, M. J. Prather, P. J. Young, D. Bergmann, P. J. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, T. P. C. van Noije, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, R. Skeie, D. T. Shindell, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5277–5298, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, 2013
M. S. Eide, S. B. Dalsøren, Ø. Endresen, B. Samset, G. Myhre, J. Fuglestvedt, and T. Berntsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4183–4201, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4183-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4183-2013, 2013
K. W. Bowman, D. T. Shindell, H. M. Worden, J.F. Lamarque, P. J. Young, D. S. Stevenson, Z. Qu, M. de la Torre, D. Bergmann, P. J. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Collins, R. Doherty, S. B. Dalsøren, G. Faluvegi, G. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. M. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, D. A. Plummer, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, A. Voulgarakis, G. Zeng, S. S. Kulawik, A. M. Aghedo, and J. R. Worden
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4057–4072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4057-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4057-2013, 2013
P. Stier, N. A. J. Schutgens, N. Bellouin, H. Bian, O. Boucher, M. Chin, S. Ghan, N. Huneeus, S. Kinne, G. Lin, X. Ma, G. Myhre, J. E. Penner, C. A. Randles, B. Samset, M. Schulz, T. Takemura, F. Yu, H. Yu, and C. Zhou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3245–3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3245-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3245-2013, 2013
D. T. Shindell, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Schulz, M. Flanner, C. Jiao, M. Chin, P. J. Young, Y. H. Lee, L. Rotstayn, N. Mahowald, G. Milly, G. Faluvegi, Y. Balkanski, W. J. Collins, A. J. Conley, S. Dalsoren, R. Easter, S. Ghan, L. Horowitz, X. Liu, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, S. T. Rumbold, R. Skeie, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, T. Takemura, A. Voulgarakis, J.-H. Yoon, and F. Lo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2939–2974, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013, 2013
D. S. Stevenson, P. J. Young, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, A. Voulgarakis, R. B. Skeie, S. B. Dalsoren, G. Myhre, T. K. Berntsen, G. A. Folberth, S. T. Rumbold, W. J. Collins, I. A. MacKenzie, R. M. Doherty, G. Zeng, T. P. C. van Noije, A. Strunk, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, D. A. Plummer, S. A. Strode, L. Horowitz, Y. H. Lee, S. Szopa, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, B. Josse, I. Cionni, M. Righi, V. Eyring, A. Conley, K. W. Bowman, O. Wild, and A. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3063–3085, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, 2013
Y. H. Lee, J.-F. Lamarque, M. G. Flanner, C. Jiao, D. T. Shindell, T. Berntsen, M. M. Bisiaux, J. Cao, W. J. Collins, M. Curran, R. Edwards, G. Faluvegi, S. Ghan, L. W. Horowitz, J. R. McConnell, J. Ming, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, K. Sudo, T. Takemura, F. Thevenon, B. Xu, and J.-H. Yoon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2607–2634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2607-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2607-2013, 2013
A. Voulgarakis, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, P. J. Young, M. J. Prather, O. Wild, R. D. Field, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, D. S. Stevenson, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, 2013
C. A. Randles, S. Kinne, G. Myhre, M. Schulz, P. Stier, J. Fischer, L. Doppler, E. Highwood, C. Ryder, B. Harris, J. Huttunen, Y. Ma, R. T. Pinker, B. Mayer, D. Neubauer, R. Hitzenberger, L. Oreopoulos, D. Lee, G. Pitari, G. Di Genova, J. Quaas, F. G. Rose, S. Kato, S. T. Rumbold, I. Vardavas, N. Hatzianastassiou, C. Matsoukas, H. Yu, F. Zhang, H. Zhang, and P. Lu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2347–2379, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2347-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2347-2013, 2013
B. H. Samset, G. Myhre, M. Schulz, Y. Balkanski, S. Bauer, T. K. Berntsen, H. Bian, N. Bellouin, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, T. Iversen, S. Kinne, A. Kirkevåg, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Lin, X. Liu, J. E. Penner, Ø. Seland, R. B. Skeie, P. Stier, T. Takemura, K. Tsigaridis, and K. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2423–2434, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2423-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2423-2013, 2013
S. B. Dalsøren, B. H. Samset, G. Myhre, J. J. Corbett, R. Minjares, D. Lack, and J. S. Fuglestvedt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1941–1955, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1941-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1941-2013, 2013
G. Myhre, B. H. Samset, M. Schulz, Y. Balkanski, S. Bauer, T. K. Berntsen, H. Bian, N. Bellouin, M. Chin, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, J. Feichter, S. J. Ghan, D. Hauglustaine, T. Iversen, S. Kinne, A. Kirkevåg, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Lin, X. Liu, M. T. Lund, G. Luo, X. Ma, T. van Noije, J. E. Penner, P. J. Rasch, A. Ruiz, Ø. Seland, R. B. Skeie, P. Stier, T. Takemura, K. Tsigaridis, P. Wang, Z. Wang, L. Xu, H. Yu, F. Yu, J.-H. Yoon, K. Zhang, H. Zhang, and C. Zhou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1853–1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1853-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1853-2013, 2013
Ø. Hodnebrog, T. K. Berntsen, O. Dessens, M. Gauss, V. Grewe, I. S. A. Isaksen, B. Koffi, G. Myhre, D. Olivié, M. J. Prather, F. Stordal, S. Szopa, Q. Tang, P. van Velthoven, and J. E. Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 12211–12225, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12211-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12211-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Subject: Gases | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Chemistry (chemical composition and reactions)
Modelling Arctic lower-tropospheric ozone: processes controlling seasonal variations
Influence of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds emission changes on tropospheric ozone variability, trends and radiative effect
Tropospheric ozone trends and attributions over East and Southeast Asia in 1995–2019: an integrated assessment using statistical methods, machine learning models, and multiple chemical transport models
Characterization of reactive oxidized nitrogen in the global upper troposphere using recent and historic commercial and research aircraft campaigns and GEOS-Chem
Soil deposition of atmospheric hydrogen constrained using planetary-scale observations
Comparative ozone production sensitivity to NOx and VOCs in Quito, Ecuador, and Santiago, Chile
South Asia anthropogenic ammonia emission inversion through assimilating IASI observations
A new parameterization of photolysis rates for oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs)
Constraining the budget of NOx and volatile organic compounds at a remote tropical island using multi-platform observations and WRF-Chem model simulations
Multi-observational estimation of regional and sectoral emission contributions to the persistent high growth rate of atmospheric CH4 for 2020–2022
Representing improved tropospheric ozone distribution over the Northern Hemisphere by including lightning NOx emissions in CHIMERE
Assessing the ability to quantify the decrease in NOx anthropogenic emissions in 2019 compared to 2005 using OMI and TROPOMI satellite observations
Tracking daily NOx emissions from an urban agglomeration based on TROPOMI NO2 and a local ensemble transform Kalman filter
Evaluation of O3, H2O, CO, and NOy climatologies simulated by four global models in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere with IAGOS measurements
Source contribution to ozone pollution during June 2021 fire events in Arizona: insights from WRF-Chem-tagged O3 and CO
High-resolution mapping of on-road vehicle emissions with real-time traffic datasets based on big data
Sensitivity of climate–chemistry model simulated atmospheric composition to the application of an inverse relationship between NOx emission and lightning flash frequency
Regional and sectoral contributions of NOx and reactive carbon emission sources to global trends in tropospheric ozone during the 2000–2018 period
Underappreciated contributions of biogenic volatile organic compounds from urban green spaces to ozone pollution
Chemistry–climate feedback of atmospheric methane in a methane-emission-flux-driven chemistry–climate model
Surface ozone trend variability across the United States and the impact of heat waves (1990–2023)
Influence of Various Criteria on Identifying the Springtime Tropospheric Ozone Depletion Events (ODEs) at Utqiagvik, Arctic
Sensitivity of climate effects of hydrogen to leakage size, location, and chemical background
Evaluating tropospheric nitrogen dioxide in UKCA using OMI satellite retrievals over south and east Asia
A technology-based global non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) emission inventory under the MEIC framework
The role of the tropical carbon balance in determining the large atmospheric CO2 growth rate in 2023
Shifts in global atmospheric oxidant chemistry from land cover change
Technical note: A comparative study of chemistry schemes for volcanic sulfur dioxide in Lagrangian transport simulations – a case study of the 2019 Raikoke eruption
Revisiting the high tropospheric ozone over southern Africa: role of biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions
Monoterpene oxidation pathways initiated by acyl peroxy radical addition
Local and transboundary contributions to NOy loadings across East Asia using CMAQ-ISAM and a GEMS-informed emission inventory during the winter–spring transition
Estimating the variability in NOx emissions from Wuhan with TROPOMI NO2 data during 2018 to 2023
Effects of enhancing nitrogen use efficiency in cropland and livestock systems on agricultural ammonia emissions and particulate matter air quality in China
Enhanced understanding of atmospheric blocking modulation on ozone dynamics within a high-resolution Earth system model
Tropospheric ozone responses to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): quantification of individual processes and future projections from multiple chemical models
Natural emissions of VOC and NOx over Africa constrained by TROPOMI HCHO and NO2 data using the MAGRITTEv1.1 model
Contributions of lightning to long-term trends and inter-annual variability in global atmospheric chemistry constrained by Schumann Resonance observations
Simulated photochemical response to observational constraints on aerosol vertical distribution over North China
Impacts of wildfire smoke aerosols on near-surface ozone photochemistry
Anthropogenic emission controls reduce summertime ozone–temperature sensitivity in the United States
Effectiveness of Emission Controls on Atmospheric Oxidation and Air Pollutant Concentrations: Uncertainties due to Chemical Mechanisms and Inventories
Investigating the response of China's surface ozone concentration to the future changes of multiple factors
The 21st-century wetting inhibits growing surface ozone in Northwestern China
Effects of different emission inventories on tropospheric ozone and methane lifetime
Assessing the relative impacts of satellite ozone and its precursor observations to improve global tropospheric ozone analysis using multiple chemical reanalysis systems
Evaluating present-day and future impacts of agricultural ammonia emissions on atmospheric chemistry and climate
Global atmospheric inversion of the NH3 emissions over 2019–2022 using the LMDZ-INCA chemistry-transport model and the IASI NH3 observations
Air-pollution-satellite-based CO2 emission inversion: system evaluation, sensitivity analysis, and future research direction
The impact of sea spray aerosol on photochemical ozone formation over eastern China: heterogeneous reaction of chlorine particles and radiative effect
Insights into ozone pollution control in urban areas by decoupling meteorological factors based on machine learning
Wanmin Gong, Stephen R. Beagley, Kenjiro Toyota, Henrik Skov, Jesper Heile Christensen, Alex Lupu, Diane Pendlebury, Junhua Zhang, Ulas Im, Yugo Kanaya, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, Roberto Sommariva, Peter Effertz, John W. Halfacre, Nis Jepsen, Rigel Kivi, Theodore K. Koenig, Katrin Müller, Claus Nordstrøm, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Paul B. Shepson, William R. Simpson, Sverre Solberg, Ralf M. Staebler, David W. Tarasick, Roeland Van Malderen, and Mika Vestenius
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8355–8405, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8355-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8355-2025, 2025
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This study showed that the springtime O3 depletion plays a critical role in driving the surface O3 seasonal cycle in the central Arctic. The O3 depletion events, while occurring most notably within the lowest few hundred metres above the Arctic Ocean, can induce a 5–7 % loss in the pan-Arctic tropospheric O3 burden during springtime. The study also found enhancements in O3 and NOy (mostly peroxyacetyl nitrate) concentrations in the Arctic due to northern boreal wildfires, particularly at higher altitudes.
Suvarna Fadnavis, Yasin Elshorbany, Jerald Ziemke, Brice Barret, Alexandru Rap, P. R. Satheesh Chandran, Richard J. Pope, Vijay Sagar, Domenico Taraborrelli, Eric Le Flochmoen, Juan Cuesta, Catherine Wespes, Folkert Boersma, Isolde Glissenaar, Isabelle De Smedt, Michel Van Roozendael, Hervé Petetin, and Isidora Anglou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8229–8254, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8229-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8229-2025, 2025
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Satellites and model simulations show enhancement in tropospheric ozone, which is highly impacted by human-produced nitrous oxides compared to volatile organic compounds. The increased amount of ozone enhances ozone radiative forcing. The ozone enhancement and associated radiative forcing are the highest over South and East Asia. The emissions of nitrous oxides show a higher influence on shifting ozone photochemical regimes than volatile organic compounds.
Xiao Lu, Yiming Liu, Jiayin Su, Xiang Weng, Tabish Ansari, Yuqiang Zhang, Guowen He, Yuqi Zhu, Haolin Wang, Ganquan Zeng, Jingyu Li, Cheng He, Shuai Li, Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen, Tim Butler, Qi Fan, Shaojia Fan, Grant L. Forster, Meng Gao, Jianlin Hu, Yugo Kanaya, Mohd Talib Latif, Keding Lu, Philippe Nédélec, Peer Nowack, Bastien Sauvage, Xiaobin Xu, Lin Zhang, Ke Li, Ja-Ho Koo, and Tatsuya Nagashima
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7991–8028, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7991-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7991-2025, 2025
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This study analyzes summertime ozone trends in East and Southeast Asia derived from a comprehensive observational database spanning from 1995 to 2019, incorporating aircraft observations, ozonesonde data, and measurements from 2500 surface sites. Multiple models are applied to attribute to changes in anthropogenic emissions and climate. The results highlight that increases in anthropogenic emissions are the primary driver of ozone increases both in the free troposphere and at the surface.
Nana Wei, Eloise A. Marais, Gongda Lu, Robert G. Ryan, and Bastien Sauvage
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7925–7940, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7925-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7925-2025, 2025
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This study uses reactive nitrogen observations from NASA DC-8 research aircraft and the In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) campaigns to characterize reactive nitrogen seasonality and composition in the global upper troposphere and to diagnose the greatest knowledge gaps from comparison to a state-of-the-science model, GEOS-Chem, that need to be resolved for climate, nitrogen cycle, and air pollution assessments.
Alexander K. Tardito Chaudhri and David S. Stevenson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7369–7385, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7369-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7369-2025, 2025
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There remains a large uncertainty in the global warming potential of atmospheric hydrogen due to poor constraints on its soil deposition and, therefore, its lifetime. A new analysis of the latitudinal variation in the observed seasonality of hydrogen is used to constrain its surface fluxes. This is complemented with a simple latitude–height model where surface fluxes are adjusted from a prototype deposition scheme.
María Cazorla, Melissa Trujillo, Rodrigo Seguel, and Laura Gallardo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7087–7109, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7087-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7087-2025, 2025
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The current climate and environmental crises impose the need to take actions in cities to curb ozone as a pollutant and a climate forcer. This endeavor is challenging in understudied regions. In this work we analyze how reducing levels of precursor chemicals would affect ozone formation in Quito, Ecuador, and Santiago, Chile.
Ji Xia, Yi Zhou, Li Fang, Yingfei Qi, Dehao Li, Hong Liao, and Jianbing Jin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7071–7086, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7071-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7071-2025, 2025
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This study established an ammonia emission inventory for South Asia via an assimilation-based inversion system. The posterior emissions, calculated by integrating the anthropogenic inventory and satellite observations, showed significant improvement over the prior. Validation against various measurements supports our results. The study offers a deep understanding of ammonia emissions for policymakers and researchers aiming to develop air quality management and mitigation strategies for South Asia.
Yuwen Peng, Bin Yuan, Sihang Wang, Xin Song, Zhe Peng, Wenjie Wang, Suxia Yang, Jipeng Qi, Xianjun He, Yibo Huangfu, Xiao-Bing Li, and Min Shao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7037–7052, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7037-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7037-2025, 2025
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A structural-based parameterization for the photolysis rates of oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs) was integrated into an updated chemical mechanism. This method links photolysis rates to species' structure, bypassing limitations of insufficient quantum yield data. Box model results show that non-HCHO OVOCs, particularly multifunctional carbonyl compounds, significantly contribute to radical production, with alkene and aromatic oxidation products playing key roles.
Catalina Poraicu, Jean-François Müller, Trissevgeni Stavrakou, Crist Amelynck, Bert W. D. Verreyken, Niels Schoon, Corinne Vigouroux, Nicolas Kumps, Jérôme Brioude, Pierre Tulet, and Camille Mouchel-Vallon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 6903–6941, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6903-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6903-2025, 2025
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We investigated the sources and impacts of nitrogen oxides and organic compounds over a remote tropical island. Simulations of the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) were evaluated using in situ Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and satellite measurements. This work highlights gaps in current models, like missing sources of key organic compounds and inaccuracies in emission inventories, emphasizing the importance of improving chemical and dynamical processes in atmospheric modelling for budget estimates in tropical regions.
Yosuke Niwa, Yasunori Tohjima, Yukio Terao, Tazu Saeki, Akihiko Ito, Taku Umezawa, Kyohei Yamada, Motoki Sasakawa, Toshinobu Machida, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Hideki Nara, Hiroshi Tanimoto, Hitoshi Mukai, Yukio Yoshida, Shinji Morimoto, Shinya Takatsuji, Kazuhiro Tsuboi, Yousuke Sawa, Hidekazu Matsueda, Kentaro Ishijima, Ryo Fujita, Daisuke Goto, Xin Lan, Kenneth Schuldt, Michal Heliasz, Tobias Biermann, Lukasz Chmura, Jarsolaw Necki, Irène Xueref-Remy, and Damiano Sferlazzo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 6757–6785, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6757-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6757-2025, 2025
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This study estimated regional and sectoral emission contributions to the unprecedented surge of atmospheric methane for 2020–2022. The methane is the second most important greenhouse gas, and its emissions reduction is urgently required to mitigate global warming. Numerical modeling-based estimates with three different sets of atmospheric observations consistently suggested large contributions of biogenic emissions from South Asia and Southeast Asia to the surge of atmospheric methane.
Sanhita Ghosh, Arineh Cholakian, Sylvain Mailler, and Laurent Menut
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 6273–6297, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6273-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6273-2025, 2025
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In this study, we evaluate the present state of modelling lightning flashes over the Northern Hemisphere, using the classical CTH (cloud-top height) scheme and the ICEFLUX scheme with the CHIMERE model. Our study provides a comprehensive 3D comparison of model outputs to assess the robustness and applicability of these schemes. An improvement in O3 distribution in the tropical free troposphere is observed due to inclusion of LNOx (nitrogen oxide emissions from lightning) in the model. Inclusion of LNOx also reduces the lifetime of trace gas CH4.
Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Grégoire Broquet, Elise Potier, Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, Adrien Martinez, Robin Plauchu, Rimal Abeed, Aurélien Sicsik-Paré, Gaelle Dufour, Adriana Coman, Dilek Savas, Guillaume Siour, Henk Eskes, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, and Stijn N. C. Dellaert
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 6047–6068, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6047-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6047-2025, 2025
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This study assesses the potential of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite observations to inform about the decrease in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in 2019 compared with 2005 at regional to national scales in Europe. Both the OMI and TROPOMI inversions show decreases in European NOx anthropogenic emission budgets in 2019 compared to 2005 but with different magnitudes.
Yawen Kong, Bo Zheng, and Yuxi Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5959–5976, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5959-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5959-2025, 2025
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Current high-resolution satellite remote sensing technologies provide a unique opportunity to derive timely high-resolution emission data. We developed an emission inversion system to assimilate satellite NO2 data to obtain daily kilometer-scale NOx emission inventories. Our results enhance inventory accuracy, allowing us to capture the effects of pollution control policies on daily emissions (e.g., during COVID-19 lockdowns) and improve fine-scale air quality modeling.
Yann Cohen, Didier Hauglustaine, Nicolas Bellouin, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Sigrun Matthes, Agnieszka Skowron, Robin Thor, Ulrich Bundke, Andreas Petzold, Susanne Rohs, Valérie Thouret, Andreas Zahn, and Helmut Ziereis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5793–5836, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5793-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5793-2025, 2025
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The chemical composition of the atmosphere near the tropopause is a key parameter for evaluating the climate impact of subsonic aviation pollutants. This study uses in situ data collected aboard passenger aircraft to assess the ability of four chemistry–climate models to reproduce (bi-)decadal climatologies of ozone, carbon monoxide, water vapour, and reactive nitrogen in this region. The models reproduce the very distinct ozone seasonality in the upper troposphere and in the lower stratosphere well.
Yafang Guo, Mohammad Amin Mirrezaei, Armin Sorooshian, and Avelino F. Arellano
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5591–5616, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5591-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5591-2025, 2025
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We assess the contributions of fire and anthropogenic emissions to O3 levels in Phoenix, Arizona, during a period of intense heat and drought conditions. We find that fire exacerbates O3 pollution and that interactions between weather, climate, and air chemistry are important to consider. This has implications for activities related to formulating emission reduction strategies in areas that are currently understudied yet becoming relevant due to reports of increasing global aridity.
Yujia Wang, Hongbin Wang, Bo Zhang, Peng Liu, Xinfeng Wang, Shuchun Si, Likun Xue, Qingzhu Zhang, and Qiao Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5537–5555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5537-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5537-2025, 2025
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This study established a bottom-up approach that employs real-time traffic flows and interpolation to obtain a spatially continuous on-road vehicle emission mapping for the main urban area of Jinan. The diurnal variation, spatial distribution, and emission hotspots were analyzed with clustering and hotspot analysis, showing unique fine-scale variation characteristics of on-road vehicle emissions. Future scenario analysis demonstrates remarkable benefits of electrification on emission reduction.
Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón, Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez, Heidi Huntrieser, Patrick Jöckel, and Eric J. Bucsela
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5557–5575, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5557-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5557-2025, 2025
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Lightning plays a significant role in tropospheric chemistry by producing substantial amounts of nitrogen oxides. According to recent estimates, thunderstorms that produce a higher lightning frequency rate also produce less nitrogen oxide per flash. We implemented the dependency of nitrogen oxide production per flash on lightning flash frequency in a chemical atmospheric model.
Aditya Nalam, Aura Lupaşcu, Tabish Ansari, and Tim Butler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5287–5311, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5287-2025, 2025
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Tropospheric O3 molecules are labeled with the identity of their precursor source to simulate contributions from various emission sources to the global tropospheric O3 burden (TOB) and its trends. With an equatorward shift, anthropogenic NOx emissions become significantly more efficient at producing O3 and play a major role in driving TOB trends, mainly due to larger convection at the tropics effectively lifting O3 and its precursors to the free troposphere, where O3 lifetime is longer.
Haofan Wang, Yuejin Li, Yiming Liu, Xiao Lu, Yang Zhang, Qi Fan, Chong Shen, Senchao Lai, Yan Zhou, Tao Zhang, and Dingli Yue
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5233–5250, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5233-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5233-2025, 2025
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This study explores how urban green spaces (UGSs) in Guangzhou influence ozone levels. By using advanced models, we found that natural emissions from these areas can significantly affect air quality. Our results suggest that the design and planning of UGSs should not only consider aesthetics and social factors but also their environmental impacts on air quality.
Laura Stecher, Franziska Winterstein, Patrick Jöckel, Michael Ponater, Mariano Mertens, and Martin Dameris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5133–5158, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5133-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5133-2025, 2025
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Methane, the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas, is chemically decomposed in the atmosphere. The chemical sink of atmospheric methane is not constant but depends on the temperature and on the abundance of its reaction partners. In this study, we use a global chemistry–climate model to assess the feedback of atmospheric methane induced by changes in the chemical sink in a warming climate and its implications for the chemical composition and the surface air temperature change.
Kai-Lan Chang, Brian C. McDonald, Colin Harkins, and Owen R. Cooper
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5101–5132, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5101-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5101-2025, 2025
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Exposure to high levels of ozone can be harmful to human health. This study shows consistent and robust evidence of decreasing ozone extremes across much of the United States over the period from 1990 to 2023, previously attributed to ozone precursor emission controls. Nevertheless, we also show that the increasing heat wave frequencies are likely to contribute to additional ozone exceedances, slowing the progress of decreasing the frequency of ozone exceedances.
Xiaochun Zhu, Le Cao, Xin Yang, Simeng Li, Jiandong Wang, and Tianliang Zhao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3873, 2025
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We applied various criteria to identify springtime ODEs at Utqiagvik, Arctic, and investigated the influences of using different criteria on conclusions regarding the characteristics of ODEs. We found criteria using a constant threshold and using thresholds based on the monthly averaged ozone more suitable for identifying ODEs than the others. Applying a threshold varying with the monthly average or stricter thresholds also signifies a more significant reduction in the ODE occurrences.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Marit Sandstad, Srinath Krishnan, Gunnar Myhre, and Maria Sand
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4929–4942, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4929-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4929-2025, 2025
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Hydrogen leakages can alter the amount of climate gases in the atmosphere and hence have a climate impact. In this study we investigate, using an atmospheric chemistry model, how this indirect climate effect differs with different amounts of leakages and with where the hydrogen leaks and if this effect changes in the future. The effect is largest for emissions far from areas where hydrogen is removed from the atmosphere by the soil, but these are not relevant locations for a future hydrogen economy.
Alok K. Pandey, David S. Stevenson, Alcide Zhao, Richard J. Pope, Ryan Hossaini, Krishan Kumar, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4785–4802, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4785-2025, 2025
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Nitrogen dioxide is an air pollutant largely controlled by human activity that affects ozone, methane, and aerosols. Satellite instruments can quantify column NO2 and, by carefully matching the time and location of measurements, enable evaluation of model simulations. NO2 over south and east Asia is assessed, showing that the model captures not only many features of the measurements, but also important differences that suggest model deficiencies in representing several aspects of the atmospheric chemistry of NO2.
Ruochong Xu, Hanchen Ma, Jingxian Li, Dan Tong, Liu Yan, Lanyuan Wang, Xinying Qin, Qingyang Xiao, Xizhe Yan, Hanwen Hu, Yujia Fu, Nana Wu, Huaxuan Wang, Yuexuanzi Wang, Xiaodong Liu, Guannan Geng, Kebin He, and Qiang Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1085, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1085, 2025
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In this study, we developed a new global emission inventory for non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) for the period of 1970–2020, with a focus on improving the representation of NMVOC-emission-related technologies. Our analysis revealed that activity growth, technology advancements, and policy-driven emission controls were key driving forces of NMVOC emission changes, but their roles were different across sectors and regions.
Liang Feng, Paul Palmer, Luke Smallman, Jingfeng Xiao, Paulo Cristofanelli, Ove Hermansen, John Lee, Casper Labuschagne, Simonetta Montaguti, Steffen Noe, Stephen Platt, Xinrong Ren, Martin Steinbacher, and Irene Xueref-Remy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1793, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1793, 2025
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2023 saw an unexpectedly high global atmospheric CO2 growth. Satellite data reveal a role for increased emissions over the tropics. Larger emissions over eastern Brazil can be explained by warmer temperatures, while changes in rainfall and soil moisture play more of a role in emission increases elsewhere in the tropics.
Ryan Vella, Sergey Gromov, Clara M. Nussbaumer, Laura Stecher, Matthias Kohl, Samuel Ruhl, Holger Tost, Jos Lelieveld, and Andrea Pozzer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1800, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1800, 2025
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We evaluated how replacing forests with farmland and grazing areas affects atmospheric composition. Using a global climate-chemistry model, we found that deforestation reduces BVOCs, increases farming pollutants, and shifts ozone chemistry. These changes lead to a small cooling effect on the climate. Restoring natural vegetation could reverse some of these effects.
Mingzhao Liu, Lars Hoffmann, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Zhongyin Cai, Sabine Grießbach, and Yi Heng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4403–4418, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4403-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4403-2025, 2025
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We studied the transport and chemical decomposition of volcanic SO2, focusing on the 2019 Raikoke event. By comparing two different chemistry modeling schemes, we found that including complex chemical reactions leads to a more accurate prediction of how long SO2 stays in the atmosphere. This research helps improve our understanding of volcanic pollution and its impact on air quality and climate, providing better tools for scientists to track and predict the movement of these pollutants.
Yufen Wang, Ke Li, Xi Chen, Zhenjiang Yang, Minglong Tang, Pascoal M. D. Campos, Yang Yang, Xu Yue, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4455–4475, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4455-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4455-2025, 2025
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The impacts of biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions on high tropospheric ozone levels are not well studied in southern Africa. We combined model simulations with recent observations at the surface and from space to quantify tropospheric ozone and its drivers in southern Africa. Our work focuses on the impact of emissions from different sources at different spatial scales, contributing to a comprehensive understanding of air pollution drivers and their uncertainties in southern Africa.
Dominika Pasik, Thomas Golin Almeida, Emelda Ahongshangbam, Siddharth Iyer, and Nanna Myllys
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4313–4331, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4313-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4313-2025, 2025
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We used quantum chemistry methods to investigate the oxidation mechanisms of acyl peroxy radicals (APRs) with various monoterpenes. Our findings reveal unique oxidation pathways for different monoterpenes, leading to either chain-terminating products or highly reactive intermediates that can contribute to particle formation in the atmosphere. This research highlights APRs as potentially significant but underexplored atmospheric oxidants that may influence future approaches to modelling climate.
Jincheol Park, Yunsoo Choi, and Sagun Kayastha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4291–4311, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4291-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4291-2025, 2025
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We investigated NOx emission contributions to NOy loadings across five regions of East Asia during the 2022 winter–spring transition through chemical transport modeling informed by satellite data. As seasons progress, local contributions within each region to its NOy budget decreased from 32 %–43 % to 23 %–30 %, while transboundary contributions increased from 16 %–33 % to 27 %–37 %, driven by a shift in synoptic settings that allowed pollutants to spread more broadly across the regions.
Qianqian Zhang, K. Folkert Boersma, Chiel van der Laan, Alba Mols, Bin Zhao, Shengyue Li, and Yuepeng Pan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3313–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3313-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3313-2025, 2025
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Accurate NOx emission estimates are required to better understand air pollution. This study investigates and demonstrates the ability of the superposition column model in combination with TROPOMI tropospheric NO2 column data to estimate city-scale NOx emissions and lifetimes and their variabilities. The results of this work nevertheless confirm the strength of the superposition column model in estimating urban NOx emissions with reasonable accuracy.
Biao Luo, Lei Liu, David H. Y. Yung, Tiangang Yuan, Jingwei Zhang, Leo T. H. Ng, and Amos P. K. Tai
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-72, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-72, 2025
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Through a combination of emission models and air quality model, we aimed to address the pressing issue of poor nitrogen management while promoting sustainable food systems and public health in China. We discovered that improving nitrogen management of crop and livestock can substantially reduce air pollutant emissions, particularly in North China Plain. Our findings further provide the benefits of such interventions on PM2.5 reductions, offering valuable insights for policymakers.
Wenbin Kou, Yang Gao, Dan Tong, Xiaojie Guo, Xiadong An, Wenyu Liu, Mengshi Cui, Xiuwen Guo, Shaoqing Zhang, Huiwang Gao, and Lixin Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3029–3048, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3029-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3029-2025, 2025
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Unlike traditional numerical studies, we apply a high-resolution Earth system model, improving simulations of surface ozone and large-scale circulations such as atmospheric blocking. Besides local heat waves, we quantify the impact of atmospheric blocking on downstream ozone concentrations, which is closely associated with the blocking position. We identify three major pathways of Rossby wave propagation, stressing the critical role of large-scale circulation in regional air quality.
Jingyu Li, Haolin Wang, Qi Fan, and Xiao Lu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-782, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-782, 2025
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We use multiple global chemical models to quantify processes contributing the ozone response to ENSO. We find that changes in transport patterns are the dominant factor in the overall ozone-ENSO responses, with the opposing effects of chemical depletion and increased biomass burning on ozone largely offsetting each other. Models consistently project an increase in tropical ozone-ENSO response associated with strengthening anomalous circulation and more abundant water vapor with global warming.
Beata Opacka, Trissevgeni Stavrakou, Jean-François Müller, Isabelle De Smedt, Jos van Geffen, Eloise A. Marais, Rebekah P. Horner, Dylan B. Millet, Kelly C. Wells, and Alex B. Guenther
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2863–2894, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2863-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2863-2025, 2025
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Vegetation releases biogenic volatile organic compounds, while soils and lightning contribute to the natural emissions of nitrogen oxides into the atmosphere. These gases interact in complex ways. Using satellite data and models, we developed a new method to simultaneously optimize these natural emissions over Africa in 2019. Our approach resulted in an increase in natural emissions, supported by independent data indicating that current estimates are underestimated.
Xiaobo Wang, Yuzhong Zhang, Tamás Bozóki, Ruosi Liang, Xinchun Xie, Shutao Zhao, Rui Wang, Yujia Zhao, and Shuai Sun
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-370, 2025
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Schumann Resonance observations are used to parameterize lightning NOx emissions for better capturing global lightning trend and variability. Updated simulations reveal insignificant trend but greater variability in lightning NOx emissions, impacting tropospheric NOx, O3 and OH. Lightning generally counteracts non-lightning factors, reducing the inter-annua variability of tropospheric O3 and OH. Variations of global lightning play important role in understanding the atmospheric methane budget.
Xi Chen, Ke Li, Ting Yang, Xipeng Jin, Lei Chen, Yang Yang, Shuman Zhao, Bo Hu, Bin Zhu, Zifa Wang, and Hong Liao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-430, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-430, 2025
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Aerosol vertical distribution that plays a crucial role in aerosol-photolysis interaction (API) remains underrepresented in chemical models. We integrated lidar and radiosonde observations to constrain the simulated aerosol profiles over North China and quantified the photochemical responses. The increased photolysis rates in the lower layers led to increased ozone and accounted for a 36 %–56 % reduction in API effects, resulting in enhanced atmospheric oxidizing capacity and aerosol formation.
Jiaqi Shen, Ronald C. Cohen, Glenn M. Wolfe, and Xiaomeng Jin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-706, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-706, 2025
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This study shows large chemical and radiative effects of smoke aerosols from fires on near-surface ozone production. Aerosol loading and NOx levels are identified as the primary factors influencing these effects. Furthermore, we show that the surface PM2.5 to NO2 column ratio can be used as an indicator for identifying aerosol-dominated regimes, facilitating the assessments of aerosol impacts on ozone formation through satellite observations.
Shuai Li, Haolin Wang, and Xiao Lu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2725–2743, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2725-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2725-2025, 2025
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Summertime ozone–temperature sensitivity has decreased by 50 % from 3.0 ppbv per K in 1990 to 1.5 ppb per K in 2021 in the US. GEOS-Chem simulations show that anthropogenic nitrogen oxide emission reduction is the dominant driver of ozone–temperature sensitivity decline by influencing both temperature direct and temperature indirect processes. Reduced ozone–temperature sensitivity has decreased ozone enhancement from low to high temperatures by an average of 6.8 ppbv across the US.
Mingjie Kang, Hongliang Zhang, and Qi Ying
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-255, 2025
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This study examines the impacts of reducing nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds on ozone (O3), secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA), and OH and NO3 radicals. The results show similar predictions for 8-h O3 but significant variability for SIA and radicals, with differences up to 30 % for SIA and 200 % for radicals across chemical mechanisms and inventories. The findings highlight that evaluating control strategies for SIA and atmospheric oxidation capacity requires an ensemble approach.
Jinya Yang, Yutong Wang, Lei Zhang, and Yu Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2649–2666, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2649-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2649-2025, 2025
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We develop a modeling framework to predict future ozone concentrations (till the 2060s) in China following an IPCC scenario. We evaluate the contributions of climatic, anthropogenic, and biogenic factors by season and region. We find persistent emission controls will alter the nonlinear response of ozone to its precursors and dominate the declining ozone level. The outcomes highlight the importance of human actions, even with a climate penalty on air quality.
Xiaodong Zhang, Yu Yan, Ning Zhang, Wenpeng Wang, Huabing Suo, Xiaohu Jian, Chao Wang, Haibo Ma, Hong Gao, Zhaoli Yang, Tao Huang, and Jianmin Ma
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-258, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-258, 2025
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This study performed comprehensive sensitivity model simulations to explore the surface O3 responses to historical and projected climate change in Northwestern China (NW). Our results reveal that substantial wetting trends since the 21st century have mitigated O3 growth in this region, with the influence of wetting on O3 evolution outweighing the warming effect. These findings should be taken into account in future policymaking aimed at scientifically reducing O3 pollution in NW.
Catherine Acquah, Laura Stecher, Mariano Mertens, and Patrick Jöckel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-294, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-294, 2025
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Short-lived ozone precursor species influence the formation of ozone and also the atmospheric lifetime of methane. Our study assesses the effect of two widely used emission inventories of these species on ozone and the methane lifetime. Our results indicate tropospheric ozone and methane lifetime differences of around 4 % even though both emission inventories aim at representing present-day conditions. We further attribute the differences to emissions of individual sectors, e.g. land traffic.
Takashi Sekiya, Emanuele Emili, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Antje Inness, Zhen Qu, R. Bradley Pierce, Dylan Jones, Helen Worden, William Y. Y. Cheng, Vincent Huijnen, and Gerbrand Koren
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2243–2268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2243-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2243-2025, 2025
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Five global chemical reanalysis datasets were used to assess the relative impacts of assimilating satellite ozone and its precursor measurements on tropospheric ozone analyses for 2010. The multiple reanalysis system comparison allows an evaluation of the dependency of the impacts on different reanalysis systems. The results suggested the importance of satellite ozone and its precursor measurements for improving ozone analysis in the whole troposphere, with varying magnitudes among the systems.
Maureen Beaudor, Didier Hauglustaine, Juliette Lathière, Martin Van Damme, Lieven Clarisse, and Nicolas Vuichard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2017–2046, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2017-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2017-2025, 2025
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Agriculture is the biggest ammonia (NH3) source, impacting air quality, climate, and ecosystems. Because of food demand, NH3 emissions are projected to rise by 2100. Using a global model, we analyzed the impact of present and future NH3 emissions generated from a land model. Our results show improved ammonia patterns compared to a reference inventory. Future scenarios predict up to 70 % increase in global NH3 burden, with significant changes in radiative forcing that can greatly elevate N2O.
Pramod Kumar, Grégoire Broquet, Didier Hauglustaine, Maureen Beaudor, Lieven Clarisse, Martin Van Damme, Pierre Coheur, Anne Cozic, Bo Zheng, Beatriz Revilla Romero, Antony Delavois, and Philippe Ciais
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-162, 2025
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Global maps of the NH3 emissions over 2019–2022 are derived using IASI NH3 spaceborne observations, the LMDZ-INCA chemistry-transport model at 1.27°×2.5° resolution and mass balance approach. The average global NH3 emissions over the period are ~98 Tg NH3 yr-1, which is significantly higher than three reference inventories. The analysis provides confidence in the seasonal variability and regional budgets, and provides new insights into NH3 emissions at global and regional scales.
Hui Li, Jiaxin Qiu, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1949–1963, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1949-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1949-2025, 2025
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We conduct a sensitivity analysis with 31 tests on various factors including prior emissions, model resolution, satellite constraint, and other system configurations to assess the vulnerability of emission estimates across temporal, sectoral, and regional dimensions. This reveals the robustness of emissions estimated by this air-pollution-satellite-based CO2 emission inversion system, with relative change between tests and base inversion below 4.0 % for national annual NOx and CO2 emissions.
Yingying Hong, Yuqi Zhu, Yuxuan Huang, Yiming Liu, Chuqi Xiong, and Qi Fan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4132, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4132, 2025
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This study investigates the impact of sea spray aerosol on ozone formation across Eastern China, highlighting its complex influence through both chemical reactions and radiative effects, which vary seasonally and geographically.
Yuqing Qiu, Xin Li, Wenxuan Chai, Yi Liu, Mengdi Song, Xudong Tian, Qiaoli Zou, Wenjun Lou, Wangyao Zhang, Juan Li, and Yuanhang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1749–1763, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1749-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1749-2025, 2025
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The chemical reactions of ozone (O3) formation are related to meteorology and local emissions. Here, a random forest approach was used to eliminate the effects of meteorological factors (dispersion or transport) on O3 and its precursors. Variations in the sensitivity of O3 formation and the apportionment of emission sources were revealed after meteorological normalization. Our results suggest that meteorological variations should be considered when diagnosing O3 formation.
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