Articles | Volume 21, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8845-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8845-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Harnessing stratospheric diffusion barriers for enhanced climate geoengineering
Institute for Mechanical Systems, Swiss Federal Institute of
Technology (ETH), Zurich, Switzerland
Ben Kravitz
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Indiana University,
Bloomington, IN, USA
Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest
National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
Douglas G. MacMartin
Sibley School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell
University, Ithaca, NY, USA
George Haller
Institute for Mechanical Systems, Swiss Federal Institute of
Technology (ETH), Zurich, Switzerland
Related authors
Nikolas O. Aksamit, Randall K. Scharien, Jennifer K. Hutchings, and Jennifer V. Lukovich
The Cryosphere, 17, 1545–1566, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1545-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1545-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coherent flow patterns in sea ice have a significant influence on sea ice fracture and refreezing. We can better understand the state of sea ice, and its influence on the atmosphere and ocean, if we understand these structures. By adapting recent developments in chaotic dynamical systems, we are able to approximate ice stretching surrounding individual ice buoys. This illuminates the state of sea ice at much higher resolution and allows us to see previously invisible ice deformation patterns.
Ezra Brody, Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, and Ewa M. Bednarz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1325–1341, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1325-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1325-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is being studied as a possible supplement to emission reduction to temporarily mitigate some of the risks associated with climate change. The latitudes at which SAI is done determine the effect on the climate. We try to find if there are combinations of latitudes that do a better job of counteracting climate change than existing strategies. We found that there are, but just how significant these improvements are depends on the amount of cooling.
Lantao Sun, James W. Hurrell, Kristen L. Rasmussen, Bali Summers, Erin A. Sherman, and Ben Kravitz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3490, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3490, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a novel framework using the convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to assess how stratospheric aerosol injection, a solar climate intervention strategy, affects future convective weather over the contiguous U.S. Results demonstrate the feasibility and scientific potential of this approach for evaluating weather-scale impacts and suggest that such intervention may mitigate changes in temperature, precipitation, and convective activity due to warming.
Jared Farley, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Ewa Bednarz, Alistair Duffey, and Matthew Henry
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1830, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1830, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
As the climate changes, many are studying sunlight reflection as a potential method of cooling. Such climate intervention could be deployed in many possible ways, including in scenarios where not every actor agrees on the strategy of cooling. These scenarios are so diverse that to explore all of them using earth system models proves to be too costly. In this paper, we develop a simplified climate model that allows users to easily explore climate intervention scenarios of their choice.
Daniele Visioni, Alan Robock, Jim Haywood, Matthew Henry, Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Sarah J. Doherty, John Moore, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Olivier Boucher, Abu Syed, Temitope S. Egbebiyi, Roland Séférian, and Ilaria Quaglia
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2583–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a new experimental protocol for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). In it, we describe the details of a new simulation of sunlight reflection using the stratospheric aerosols that climate models are supposed to run, and we explain the reasons behind each choice we made when defining the protocol.
Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 191–213, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Injecting SO2 into the lower stratosphere can temporarily reduce global mean temperature and mitigate some risks associated with climate change, but injecting it at different latitudes and seasons would have different impacts. This study introduces new stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) strategies and explores the importance of the choice of SAI strategy, demonstrating that it notably affects the distribution of aerosol cloud, injection efficiency, and various surface climate impacts.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amy H. Butler, Daniele Visioni, Yan Zhang, Ben Kravitz, and Douglas G. MacMartin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13665–13684, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use a state-of-the-art Earth system model and a set of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) strategies to achieve the same level of global mean surface cooling through different combinations of location and/or timing of the injection. We demonstrate that the choice of SAI strategy can lead to contrasting impacts on stratospheric and tropospheric temperatures, circulation, and chemistry (including stratospheric ozone), thereby leading to different impacts on regional surface climate.
Matthew Henry, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Mohit Dalvi, Alice Wells, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Walker Lee, and Mari R. Tye
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13369–13385, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Solar climate interventions, such as injecting sulfur in the stratosphere, may be used to offset some of the adverse impacts of global warming. We use two independently developed Earth system models to assess the uncertainties around stratospheric sulfur injections. The injection locations and amounts are optimized to maintain the same pattern of surface temperature. While both models show reduced warming, the change in rainfall patterns (even without sulfur injections) is uncertain.
Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Alan Robock, Simone Tilmes, Jim Haywood, Olivier Boucher, Mark Lawrence, Peter Irvine, Ulrike Niemeier, Lili Xia, Gabriel Chiodo, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, John C. Moore, and Helene Muri
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5149–5176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Geoengineering indicates methods aiming to reduce the temperature of the planet by means of reflecting back a part of the incoming radiation before it reaches the surface or allowing more of the planetary radiation to escape into space. It aims to produce modelling experiments that are easy to reproduce and compare with different climate models, in order to understand the potential impacts of these techniques. Here we assess its past successes and failures and talk about its future.
Nikolas O. Aksamit, Randall K. Scharien, Jennifer K. Hutchings, and Jennifer V. Lukovich
The Cryosphere, 17, 1545–1566, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1545-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1545-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coherent flow patterns in sea ice have a significant influence on sea ice fracture and refreezing. We can better understand the state of sea ice, and its influence on the atmosphere and ocean, if we understand these structures. By adapting recent developments in chaotic dynamical systems, we are able to approximate ice stretching surrounding individual ice buoys. This illuminates the state of sea ice at much higher resolution and allows us to see previously invisible ice deformation patterns.
Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Walker R. Lee, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, and Douglas G. MacMartin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 663–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper constitutes Part 1 of a study performing a first systematic inter-model comparison of the atmospheric responses to stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections (SAIs) at various latitudes as simulated by three state-of-the-art Earth system models. We identify similarities and differences in the modeled aerosol burden, investigate the differences in the aerosol approaches between the models, and ultimately show the differences produced in surface climate, temperature and precipitation.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, James M. Haywood, Jadwiga Richter, Douglas G. MacMartin, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 687–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Building on Part 1 of this two-part study, we demonstrate the role of biases in climatological circulation and specific aspects of model microphysics in driving the differences in simulated sulfate distributions amongst three Earth system models. We then characterize the simulated changes in stratospheric and free-tropospheric temperatures, ozone, water vapor, and large-scale circulation, elucidating the role of the above aspects in the surface responses discussed in Part 1.
Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, David A. Bailey, Nan Rosenbloom, Brian Dobbins, Walker R. Lee, Mari Tye, and Jean-Francois Lamarque
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8221–8243, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Solar climate intervention using stratospheric aerosol injection is a proposed method of reducing global mean temperatures to reduce the worst consequences of climate change. We present a new modeling protocol aimed at simulating a plausible deployment of stratospheric aerosol injection and reproducibility of simulations using other Earth system models: Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar climate intervention on the Earth system with stratospheric aerosol injection (ARISE-SAI).
Mari R. Tye, Katherine Dagon, Maria J. Molina, Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, and Simone Tilmes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1233–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1233-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examined the potential effect of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on extreme temperature and precipitation. SAI may cause daytime temperatures to cool but nighttime to warm. Daytime cooling may occur in all seasons across the globe, with the largest decreases in summer. In contrast, nighttime warming may be greatest at high latitudes in winter. SAI may reduce the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall. The combined changes may exacerbate drying over parts of the global south.
Ilaria Quaglia, Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, and Ben Kravitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5757–5773, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5757-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5757-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Carbonyl sulfide is a gas that mixes very well in the atmosphere and can reach the stratosphere, where it reacts with sunlight and produces aerosol. Here we propose that, by increasing surface fluxes by an order of magnitude, the number of stratospheric aerosols produced may be enough to partially offset the warming produced by greenhouse gases. We explore what effect this would have on the atmospheric composition.
Huiying Ren, Erol Cromwell, Ben Kravitz, and Xingyuan Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1727–1743, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1727-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1727-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We used a deep learning method called long short-term memory (LSTM) to fill gaps in data collected by hydrologic monitoring networks. LSTM accounted for correlations in space and time and nonlinear trends in data. Compared to a traditional regression-based time-series method, LSTM performed comparably when filling gaps in data with smooth patterns, while it better captured highly dynamic patterns in data. Capturing such dynamics is critical for understanding dynamic complex system behaviors.
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Adam A. Scaife, Olivier Boucher, Matthew Henry, Ben Kravitz, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2999–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations by six Earth-system models of geoengineering by introducing sulfuric acid aerosols into the tropical stratosphere are compared. A robust impact on the northern wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation is found, exacerbating precipitation reduction over parts of southern Europe. In contrast, the models show no consistency with regard to impacts on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, although results do indicate a risk that the oscillation could become locked into a permanent westerly phase.
Daniele Visioni, Simone Tilmes, Charles Bardeen, Michael Mills, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, and Jadwiga H. Richter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1739–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1739-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1739-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols are simulated in a simplified way in climate models: in the model analyzed here, they are represented in every grid as described by three simple logarithmic distributions, mixing all different species together. The size can evolve when new particles are formed, particles merge together to create a larger one or particles are deposited to the surface. This approximation normally works fairly well. Here we show however that when large amounts of sulfate are simulated, there are problems.
Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 201–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Adding SO2 to the stratosphere could temporarily cool the planet by reflecting more sunlight back to space. However, adding SO2 at different latitude(s) and season(s) leads to significant differences in regional surface climate. This study shows that, to cool the planet by 1–1.5 °C, there are likely six to eight choices of injection latitude(s) and season(s) that lead to meaningfully different distributions of climate impacts.
Dawn L. Woodard, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Ben Kravitz, Corinne Hartin, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4751–4767, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We have added a representation of the permafrost carbon feedback to the simple, open-source global carbon–climate model Hector and calibrated the results to be consistent with historical data and Earth system model projections. Our results closely match previous work, estimating around 0.2 °C of warming from permafrost this century. This capability will be useful to explore uncertainties in this feedback and for coupling with integrated assessment models for policy and economic analysis.
Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Olivier Boucher, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Michou Martine, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10039–10063, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A new set of simulations is used to investigate commonalities, differences and sources of uncertainty when simulating the injection of SO2 in the stratosphere in order to mitigate the effects of climate change (solar geoengineering). The models differ in how they simulate the aerosols and how they spread around the stratosphere, resulting in differences in projected regional impacts. Overall, however, the models agree that aerosols have the potential to mitigate the warming produced by GHGs.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Alan Robock, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4231–4247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates multi-model response to idealized geoengineering (high CO2 with solar reduction) across two different generations of climate models. We find that, with the exception of a few cases, the results are unchanged between the different generations. This gives us confidence that broad conclusions about the response to idealized geoengineering are robust.
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Anthony C. Jones, Simone Tilmes, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1287–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1287-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Two different methods of simulating a geoengineering scenario are compared using data from two different Earth system models. One method is very idealised while the other includes details of a plausible mechanism. The results from both models agree that the idealised approach does not capture an impact found when detailed modelling is included, namely that geoengineering induces a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation which leads to warmer, wetter winters in northern Europe.
Walker Lee, Douglas MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1051–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1051-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1051-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The injection of aerosols into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight could reduce global warming, but this type of
geoengineeringwould also impact other variables like precipitation and sea ice. In this study, we model various climate impacts of geoengineering on a 3-D graph to show how trying to meet one climate goal will affect other variables. We also present two computer simulations which validate our model and show that geoengineering could regulate precipitation as well as temperature.
Cited articles
Beron-Vera, F. J., Olascoaga, M. J., Brown, M. G., and Koçak, H.: Zonal
Jets as Meridional Transport Barriers in the Subtropical and Polar Lower
Stratosphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 753–767, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-084.1,
2012.
BozorgMagham, A. E. and Ross, S. D.: Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent
structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast uncertainty,
Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul., 22, 964–979,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cnsns.2014.07.011, 2015.
Crutzen, P. J.: Albedo enhancement by stratospheric sulfur injections: A
contribution to resolve a policy dilemma?, Clim. Change, 77, 211–220,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9101-y, 2006.
Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C. I., and Butler, A. H.: The Teleconnection
of El Niño Southern Oscillation to the Stratosphere, Rev. Geophys.,
5–47, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018RG000596, 2019.
Driscoll, S., Bozzo, A., Gray, L. J., Robock, A., and Stenchikov, G.: Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following
volcanic eruptions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D17105,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017607, 2012.
English, J. M., Toon, O. B., and Mills, M. J.: Microphysical simulations of sulfur burdens from stratospheric sulfur geoengineering, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 4775–4793, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-4775-2012, 2012.
Garaboa-Paz, D., Eiras-Barca, J., Huhn, F., and Peérez-Mũnuzuri, V.:
Lagrangian coherent structures along atmospheric rivers, Chaos, 25, 063105,
https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4919768, 2015.
García, C. E., Prett, D. M., and Morari, M.: Model Predictive Control:
Theory and Practice – a Survey, Automatica, 25, 335–348, 1989.
Gettelman, A., Hannay, C., Bacmeister, J. T., Neale, R. B., Pendergrass, A.
G., Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J. F., Fasullo, J. T., Bailey, D. A.,
Lawrence, D. M., and Mills, M. J.: High Climate Sensitivity in the Community
Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), Geophys. Res. Lett., 46,
8329–8337, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083978, 2019.
Global Airport Database: The Global Airport Database, available at: https://www.partow.net/miscellaneous/airportdatabase/index.html, last
access: 4 May 2020.
Gregory, J. M., Ingram, W. J., Palmer, M. A., Jones, G. S., Stott, P. A.,
Thorpe, R. B., Lowe, J. A., Johns, T. C., and Williams, K. D.: A new method
for diagnosing radiative forcing and climate sensitivity, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 31, 2–5, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018747, 2004.
Hadjighasem, A. and Haller, G.: Geodesic Transport Barriers in Jupiter's
Atmosphere: A Video-Based Analysis, SIAM Rev., 58, 69–89,
https://doi.org/10.1137/140983665, 2016.
Haller, G.: Lagrangian Coherent Structures, Annu. Rev. Fluid Mech., 47,
137–162, https://doi.org/10.1002/9783527639748.ch3, 2015.
Haller, G., Karrasch, D., and Kogelbauer, F.: Material barriers to diffusive
and stochastic transport, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, 9074–9079,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1720177115, 2018.
Haller, G., Karrasch, D., and Kogelbauer, F.: Barriers to the transport of
diffusive scalars in compressible flows, SIAM J. Appl. Dyn. Syst., 19,
85–123, https://doi.org/10.1137/19M1238666, 2020.
Harris, B.: Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences, 2nd edn., edited by: Balakrishnan,
N., Read, C. B., and Vidakovic, B., Wiley, New York, 2006.
Heckendorn, P., Weisenstein, D., Fueglistaler, S., Luo, B. P., Rozanov, E.,
Schraner, M., Thomason, L. W., and Peter, T.: The impact of geoengineering
aerosols on stratospheric temperature and ozone, Environ. Res. Lett., 4, 045108,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045108, 2009.
Jaiser, R., Dethloff, K., and Handorf, D.: Stratospheric response to arctic
sea ice retreat and associated planetary wave propagation changes, Tellus A, 65, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.19375,
2013.
Jarvis, A. and Leedal, D.: The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project
(GeoMIP): a control perspective, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 163, 157–163,
https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.387, 2012.
Kashimura, H., Abe, M., Watanabe, S., Sekiya, T., Ji, D., Moore, J. C., Cole, J. N. S., and Kravitz, B.: Shortwave radiative forcing, rapid adjustment, and feedback to the surface by sulfate geoengineering: analysis of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project G4 scenario, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3339–3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3339-2017, 2017.
Knutson, B., Tang, W., and Chan, P. W.: Lagrangian coherent structure
analysis of terminal winds: Three-dimensionality, intramodel variations, and
flight analyses, Adv. Meteorol., 2015, 816727, https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/816727, 2015.
Kravitz, B. and MacMartin, D. G.: Uncertainty and the basis for confidence
in solar geoengineering research, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 1, 64–75,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-019-0004-7, 2020.
Kravitz, B., Lamarque, J.-F., Tribbia, J. J., Tilmes, S., Vitt, F., Richter,
J. H., MacMartin, D. G., and Mills, M. J.: First Simulations of Designing
Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosol Geoengineering to Meet Multiple Simultaneous
Climate Objectives, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 12616–12634,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017jd026874, 2017.
MacMartin, D. G., Kravitz, B., Keith, D. W., and Jarvis, A.: Dynamics of the
coupled human – climate system resulting from closed-loop control of solar
geoengineering, Clim. Dynam., 43, 243–258, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1822-9,
2014.
Mills, M. J., Richter, J. H., Tilmes, S., Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G.,
Glanville, A. A., Tribbia, J. J., Lamarque, J.-F., Vitt, F., Schmidt, A.,
Gettelman, A., Hannay, C., Bacmeister, J. T., and Kinnison, D. E.: Radiative
and chemical response to interactive stratospheric sulfate aerosols in fully
coupled CESM1(WACCM), J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 1, 13061–13078,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027006, 2017.
Nakamura, N.: Quantifying Inhomogeneous, Instantaneous, Irreversible
Transport Using Passive Tracer Field as a Coordinate, Lect. Notes Phys.,
744, 137–164, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-75215-8, 2008.
Niemeier, U. and Timmreck, C.: What is the limit of climate engineering by stratospheric injection of SO2?, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9129–9141, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9129-2015, 2015.
Niemeier, U., Schmidt, H., and Timmreck, C.: The dependency of geoengineered
sulfate aerosol on the emission strategy, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 12,
189–194, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.304, 2011.
Olascoaga, M. J., Brown, M. G., Beron-Vera, F. J., and Koçak, H.: Brief communication “Stratospheric winds, transport barriers and the 2011 Arctic ozone hole”, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 19, 687–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-19-687-2012, 2012.
Pierce, J. R., Weisenstein, D. K., Heckendorn, P., Peter, T., and Keith, D.
W.: Efficient formation of stratospheric aerosol for climate engineering by
emission of condensible vapor from aircraft, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37,
2–6, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043975, 2010.
Rasch, P. J., Crutzen, P. J., and Coleman, D. B.: Exploring the
geoengineering of climate using stratospheric sulfate aerosols: The role of
particle size, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032179,
2008.
Robock, A., Oman, L., and Stenchikov, G. L.: Regional climate responses to
geoengineering with tropical and Arctic SO2 injections, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010050, 2008.
Rutherford, B., Dangelmayr, G., and Montgomery, M. T.: Lagrangian coherent structures in tropical cyclone intensification, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 5483–5507, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-5483-2012, 2012.
Serra, M. and Haller, G.: Objective eulerian coherent structures, Chaos,
26, 053110, https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4951720, 2016.
Serra, M., Sathe, P., Beron-Vera, F., and Haller, G.: Uncovering the edge of
the polar vortex, J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 3871–3885,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0052.1, 2017.
Simpson, I. R., Tilmes, S., Richter, J. H., Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G.,
Mills, M. J., Fasullo, J. T., and Pendergrass, A. G.: The Regional
Hydroclimate Response to Stratospheric Sulfate Geoengineering and the Role
of Stratospheric Heating, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 12587–12616,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031093, 2019.
Tallapragada, P., Ross, S. D., and Schmale, D. G.: Lagrangian coherent
structures are associated with fluctuations in airborne microbial
populations, Chaos, 21, 033122, https://doi.org/10.1063/1.3624930, 2011.
Tang, W., Mathur, M., Haller, G., Hahn, D. C., and Ruggiero, F. H.:
Lagrangian Coherent Structures near a Subtropical Jet Stream, J. Atmos.
Sci., 67, 2307–2319, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3176.1, 2010.
The Royal Society 2009: Geoengineering the climate: Science, Governance and
Uncertainty Report, The Royal Society, London, 2009.
Tilmes, S., Müller, R., and Salawitch, R.: The sensitivity of polar ozone
depletion to proposed geoengineering schemes, Science, 320,
1201–1204, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1153966, 2008.
Tilmes, S., Richter, J. H., Mills, M. J., Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G.,
Vitt, F., Tribbia, J. J., and Lamarque, J.-F.: Sensitivity of aerosol
distribution and climate response to stratospheric SO2 injection locations,
J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, 12591–12615, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD026888,
2017.
Visioni, D., MacMartin, D. G., Kravitz, B., Richter, J. H., Tilmes, S., and
Mills, M. J.: Seasonally Modulated Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering
Alters the Climate Outcomes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, 1–10,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088337, 2020.
Wang, N., Ramirez, U., Flores, F., and Datta-Barua, S.: Lagrangian coherent
structures in the thermosphere: Predictive transport barriers, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 44, 4549–4557, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL072568, 2017.
Short summary
There exist robust and influential material features evolving within turbulent fluids that behave as the skeleton for fluid transport pathways. Recent developments in applied mathematics have made the identification of these time-varying structures more rigorous and insightful than ever. Using short-range wind forecasts, we detail how and why these material features can be exploited in an effort to optimize the spread of aerosols in the stratosphere for climate geoengineering.
There exist robust and influential material features evolving within turbulent fluids that...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint