Articles | Volume 21, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7499-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7499-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 May 2021
Research article |
| 18 May 2021
| 18 May 2021
Future changes in Beijing haze events under different anthropogenic aerosol emission scenarios
Lixia Zhang
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
Laura J. Wilcox
Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Nick J. Dunstone
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
David J. Paynter
NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Shuai Hu
LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Massimo Bollasina
School of Geosciences, Grant Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Donghuan Li
Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Jonathan K. P. Shonk
Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
now at: MetOffice@Reading, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Liwei Zou
LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Related authors
Liang Guo, Laura J. Wilcox, Massimo Bollasina, Steven T. Turnock, Marianne T. Lund, and Lixia Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15299–15308, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15299-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15299-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Severe haze remains serious over Beijing despite emissions decreasing since 2008. Future haze changes in four scenarios are studied. The pattern conducive to haze weather increases with the atmospheric warming caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases. However, the actual haze intensity, measured by either PM2.5 or optical depth, decreases with aerosol emissions. We show that only using the weather pattern index to predict the future change of Beijing haze is insufficient.
Weihao Sun, Massimo Bollasina, Ioana Colfescu, Guoxiong Wu, and Yimin Liu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3389, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3389, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
Observational records show that the Asian monsoon underwent substantial changes during the early 20th century, including a wetting trend over South Asia and a southward shift in rainfall over East Asia. We show that increasing European sulphate aerosol emissions played a crucial role in shaping the monsoon rainfall trends. This has important implications for reducing uncertainties in monsoon projections, particularly in light of the diverse future aerosol emission scenarios for the region.
Zixuan Jia, Massimo A. Bollasina, Wenjun Zhang, and Ying Xiang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8805–8820, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8805-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8805-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Using multi-model mean data from regional aerosol perturbation experiments, we find that increased Asian sulfate aerosols strengthen the link between ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) and the East Asian winter monsoon. In coupled simulations, aerosol-induced broad cooling increases the ENSO amplitude by affecting the tropical Pacific mean state, contributing to the increase in monsoon interannual variability. These results provide important implications to reduce uncertainties in future projections of regional extreme variability.
Paul T. Griffiths, Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Michael Prather, Alex Archibald, Florence Brown, Makoto Deushi, William Collins, Stephanie Fiedler, Naga Oshima, Lee T. Murray, Bjørn H. Samset, Chris Smith, Steven Turnock, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Paul J. Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8289–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) aimed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. We review its contribution to AR6 (Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and the wider understanding of the role of these species in climate and climate change. We identify challenges and provide recommendations to improve the utility and uptake of climate model data, detailed summary tables of CMIP6 models, experiments, and emergent diagnostics.
Feifei Luo, Bjørn H. Samset, Camilla W. Stjern, Manoj Joshi, Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Wei Hua, and Shuanglin Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7647–7667, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7647-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7647-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Black carbon (BC) aerosol is emitted from the incomplete combustion of biomass and fossil fuels. We found that Asian BC leads to strong local cooling and drying. Reductions in precipitation primarily depend on the thermodynamic effects due to solar radiation absorption by BC. The combined thermodynamic and dynamic effects shape the spatial pattern of precipitation responses to Asian BC. These results help us further understand the impact of emissions of anthropogenic aerosols on Asian climate.
Beth Dingley, James A. Anstey, Marta Abalos, Carsten Abraham, Tommi Bergman, Lisa Bock, Sonya Fiddes, Birgit Hassler, Ryan J. Kramer, Fei Luo, Fiona M. O'Connor, Petr Šácha, Isla R. Simpson, Laura J. Wilcox, and Mark D. Zelinka
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3189, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3189, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
This manuscript defines as a list of variables and scientific opportunities which are requested from the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track to address open atmospheric science questions. The list reflects the output of a large public community engagement effort, coordinated across autumn 2025 through to summer 2025.
Wah Kin Michael Lai, Jon Robson, Laura Wilcox, Nick Dunstone, and Rowan Sutton
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2598, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2598, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
In a climate model at two different resolutions, anthropogenic aerosols induce a fast cooling followed by a delayed warming in the subpolar North Atlantic. The delayed warming is stronger at higher resolution due to a stronger Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) response. This difference is due to the lower resolution model having more sea ice which insulates the ocean. This result show that the North Atlantic response to external forcing is sensitive to regional differences.
Duncan Watson-Parris, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Geeta Persad, Massimo A. Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Carley E. Iles, Manoj Joshi, Marianne T. Lund, Daniel McCoy, Daniel M. Westervelt, Andrew I. L. Williams, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4443–4454, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In 2020, regulations by the International Maritime Organization aimed to reduce aerosol emissions from ships. These aerosols previously had a cooling effect, which the regulations might reduce, revealing more greenhouse gas warming. Here we find that, while there is regional warming, the global 2020–2040 temperature rise is only +0.03 °C. This small change is difficult to distinguish from natural climate variability, indicating the regulations have had a limited effect on observed warming to date.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
Alcide Zhao, Laura J. Wilcox, and Claire L. Ryder
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13385–13402, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13385-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models include desert dust aerosols, which cause atmospheric heating and can change circulation patterns. We assess the effect of dust on the Indian and east Asian summer monsoons through multi-model experiments isolating the effect of dust in current climate models for the first time. Dust atmospheric heating results in a southward shift of western Pacific equatorial rainfall and an enhanced Indian summer monsoon. This shows the importance of accurate dust representation in models.
Catherine Anne Toolan, Joe Adabouk Amooli, Laura J. Wilcox, Bjørn H. Samset, Andrew G. Turner, and Daniel M. Westervelt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3057, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research explores how well air pollution and rainfall patterns in Africa are represented in current climate models, by comparing model data to observations from 1981 to 2023. While most models capture seasonal air quality changes well, they struggle to replicate the distribution of non-dust pollutants and certain rainfall patterns, especially over east Africa. Improving these models is crucial for better climate predictions and preparing for future risks.
Alison L. Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria A. Bell, and Jamie Hannaford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2953–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hazards affect people and ecosystems, but extremes are not fully understood due to limited observations. A large climate ensemble and simple hydrological model are used to assess unprecedented but plausible floods and droughts. The chain gives extreme flows outside the observed range: summer 2022 ~ 28 % lower and autumn 2023 ~ 42 % higher. Spatial dependence and temporal persistence are analysed. Planning for such events could help water supply resilience and flood risk management.
Donghuan Li, Tianjun Zhou, Youcun Qi, Liwei Zou, Chao Li, Wenxia Zhang, and Xiaolong Chen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7347–7358, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7347-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Two sets of climate model simulations are used to investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic factors of future change in cold extremes in East Asia. Dynamic factor accounted for over 80 % of cold-month temperature anomalies in past 50 years. The intensity of cold extreme is expected to decrease by 5 ℃, with thermodynamic factor contributing ~ 75 % by the end of the 21st century. Changes in dynamic factor are driven by an upward trend of positive Arctic Oscillation-like sea level pressure pattern.
Zhen Liu, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Laura J. Wilcox
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7227–7252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7227-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7227-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The aerosol impact on monsoon precipitation and circulation is strongly influenced by a model-simulated spatio-temporal variability in the climatological monsoon precipitation across Asia, which critically modulates the efficacy of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions, the predominant driver of the total aerosol response. There is a strong interplay between South Asia and East Asia monsoon precipitation biases and their relative predominance in driving the overall monsoon response.
Roberto Bilbao, Pablo Ortega, Didier Swingedouw, Leon Hermanson, Panos Athanasiadis, Rosie Eade, Marion Devilliers, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Nick Dunstone, An-Chi Ho, William Merryfield, Juliette Mignot, Dario Nicolì, Margarida Samsó, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Xian Wu, and Stephen Yeager
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 501–525, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In recent decades three major volcanic eruptions have occurred: Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991. In this article we explore the climatic impacts of these volcanic eruptions with a purposefully designed set of simulations from six CMIP6 decadal prediction systems. We analyse the radiative and dynamical responses and show that including the volcanic forcing in these predictions is important to reproduce the observed surface temperature variations.
Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2387–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate scientists want to better understand modern climate change. Thus, climate model experiments are performed and compared. The results of climate model experiments differ, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. This article gives insights into the challenges and outlines opportunities for further improving the understanding of climate change. It is based on views of a group of experts in atmospheric composition–climate interactions.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Yiqi Zheng, Larry W. Horowitz, Raymond Menzel, David J. Paynter, Vaishali Naik, Jingyi Li, and Jingqiu Mao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8993–9007, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8993-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8993-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Biogenic secondary organic aerosols (SOAs) account for a large fraction of fine aerosol at the global scale. Using long-term measurements and a climate model, we investigate anthropogenic impacts on biogenic SOA at both decadal and centennial timescales. Results show that despite reductions in biogenic precursor emissions, SOA has been strongly amplified by anthropogenic emissions since the preindustrial era and exerts a cooling radiative forcing.
Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Bjørn H. Samset, Massimo A. Bollasina, Paul T. Griffiths, James Keeble, Marianne T. Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Declan O'Donnell, David J. Paynter, Geeta G. Persad, Steven T. Rumbold, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Sabine Undorf, and Daniel M. Westervelt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4451–4479, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional climate change. However, the size of these regional impacts and the way they arise are still uncertain. With large changes in aerosol emissions a possibility over the next few decades, it is important to better quantify the potential role of aerosol in future regional climate change. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project will deliver experiments designed to facilitate this.
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett
Clim. Past, 19, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
Enrico Zorzetto, Sergey Malyshev, Nathaniel Chaney, David Paynter, Raymond Menzel, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1937–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1937-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1937-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we develop a methodology to model the spatial distribution of solar radiation received by land over mountainous terrain. The approach is designed to be used in Earth system models, where coarse grid cells hinder the description of fine-scale land–atmosphere interactions. We adopt a clustering algorithm to partition the land domain into a set of homogeneous sub-grid
tiles, and for each tile we evaluate solar radiation received by land based on terrain properties.
Nora L. S. Fahrenbach and Massimo A. Bollasina
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 877–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-877-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-877-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the monthly-scale climate response to COVID-19 aerosol emission reductions during January–May 2020 using climate models. Our results show global temperature and rainfall anomalies driven by circulation changes. The climate patterns reverse polarity from JF to MAM due to a shift in the main SO2 reduction region from China to India. This real-life example of rapid climate adjustments to abrupt, regional aerosol emission reduction has large implications for future climate projections.
Alcide Zhao, Claire L. Ryder, and Laura J. Wilcox
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2095–2119, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2095-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2095-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The CMIP6 models' simulated dust processes are getting more uncertain as models become more sophisticated. Of particular challenge are the links between dust cycles and optical properties, and we recommend more detailed output relating to dust cycles in future intercomparison projects to constrain such links. Also, models struggle to capture certain key regional dust processes such as dust accumulation along the slope of the Himalayas and dust seasonal cycles in North China and North America.
Jie Zhang, Kalli Furtado, Steven T. Turnock, Jane P. Mulcahy, Laura J. Wilcox, Ben B. Booth, David Sexton, Tongwen Wu, Fang Zhang, and Qianxia Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18609–18627, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18609-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18609-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The CMIP6 ESMs systematically underestimate TAS anomalies in the NH midlatitudes, especially from 1960 to 1990. The anomalous cooling is concurrent in time and space with anthropogenic SO2 emissions. The spurious drop in TAS is attributed to the overestimated aerosol concentrations. The aerosol forcing sensitivity cannot well explain the inter-model spread of PHC biases. And the cloud-amount term accounts for most of the inter-model spread in aerosol forcing sensitivity.
Liang Guo, Laura J. Wilcox, Massimo Bollasina, Steven T. Turnock, Marianne T. Lund, and Lixia Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15299–15308, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15299-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15299-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Severe haze remains serious over Beijing despite emissions decreasing since 2008. Future haze changes in four scenarios are studied. The pattern conducive to haze weather increases with the atmospheric warming caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases. However, the actual haze intensity, measured by either PM2.5 or optical depth, decreases with aerosol emissions. We show that only using the weather pattern index to predict the future change of Beijing haze is insufficient.
Francesco S. R. Pausata, Gabriele Messori, Jayoung Yun, Chetankumar A. Jalihal, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Thomas M. Marchitto
Clim. Past, 17, 1243–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Far-afield changes in vegetation such as those that occurred over the Sahara during the middle Holocene and the consequent changes in dust emissions can affect the intensity of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) rainfall and the lengthening of the monsoon season. This remote influence is mediated by anomalies in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and may have shaped the evolution of the SAM during the termination of the African Humid Period.
Longlei Li, Natalie M. Mahowald, Ron L. Miller, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Martina Klose, Douglas S. Hamilton, Maria Gonçalves Ageitos, Paul Ginoux, Yves Balkanski, Robert O. Green, Olga Kalashnikova, Jasper F. Kok, Vincenzo Obiso, David Paynter, and David R. Thompson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3973–4005, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3973-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3973-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, this study quantifies the range of the dust direct radiative effect due to uncertainty in the soil mineral abundance using all currently available information. We show that the majority of the estimated direct radiative effect range is due to uncertainty in the simulated mass fractions of iron oxides and thus their soil abundance, which is independent of the model employed. We therefore prove the necessity of considering mineralogy for understanding dust–climate interactions.
Jonathan K. P. Shonk, Andrew G. Turner, Amulya Chevuturi, Laura J. Wilcox, Andrea J. Dittus, and Ed Hawkins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14903–14915, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14903-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14903-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We use a set of model simulations of the 20th century to demonstrate that the uncertainty in the cooling effect of man-made aerosol emissions has a wide range of impacts on global monsoons. For the weakest cooling, the impact of aerosol is overpowered by greenhouse gas (GHG) warming and monsoon rainfall increases in the late 20th century. For the strongest cooling, aerosol impact dominates over GHG warming, leading to reduced monsoon rainfall, particularly from 1950 to 1980.
Laura J. Wilcox, Zhen Liu, Bjørn H. Samset, Ed Hawkins, Marianne T. Lund, Kalle Nordling, Sabine Undorf, Massimo Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Srinath Krishnan, Joonas Merikanto, and Andrew G. Turner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11955–11977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Projected changes in man-made aerosol range from large reductions to moderate increases in emissions until 2050. Rapid reductions between the present and the 2050s lead to enhanced increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation relative to scenarios with continued increases in aerosol. Relative magnitude and spatial distribution of aerosol changes are particularly important for South Asian summer monsoon precipitation changes, affecting the sign of the trend in the coming decades.
Cited articles
Amann, M., Bertok, I., Borken-Kleefeld, J., Cofala, J., Heyes, C.,
Hoglund-Isaksson, L., Kiesewetter, G., Klimont, Z., Schöpp, W.,
Vellinga, N., and Winiwarter, W.: Adjusted historic emission data, projections,
and optimized emission reduction targets for 2030 – A comparison with COM
data 2013, Part A: Results for EU-28, TSAP Report #16A, version 1.1.,
IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 2015.
An, Z., Huang, R., Zhang, R., Tie, X., Li, G., Cao, J., Zhou, W., Shi, Z.,
Han, Y., Gu, Z., and Ji, Y.: Severe haze in northern China: A synergy of
anthropogenic emissions and atmospheric processes, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116,
8657–8666, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900125116, 2019.
Bellouin, N., Rae, J., Jones, A., Johnson, C., Haywood, J., and Boucher, O.:
Aerosol forcing in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)
simulations by HadGEM2-ES and the role of ammonium nitrate, J. Geophys.
Res., 116, D20206, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016074, 2011.
Cai, W., Li, K., Liao, H., Wang, H., and Wu, L.: Weather conditions conducive to
Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change, Nat. Clim. Change., 7, 257–62, 2017.
Callahan, C. W. and Mankin, J. S.: The influence of internal climate
variability on projections of synoptically driven Beijing haze, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, e2020GL088548. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088548,
2020.
Callahan, C. W., Schnell, J. L., and Horton, D. E.: Multi-index attribution
of extreme winter air quality in Beijing, China, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 4567–4583.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029738, 2019.
Chakravarti, I. M., Laha, R. G., and Roy, J.: Handbook of Methods of Applied Statistics,
Volume I, John Wiley and Sons, New York, 392–394, 1967.
Chen, H. and Wang H.: Haze Days in North China and the associated atmospheric
circulations based on daily visibility data from 1960 to 2012. J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 120, 5895–5909, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023225, 2015.
Chen, H., Wang, H., Sun, J., Xu, Y., and Yin, Z.: Anthropogenic fine particulate matter pollution will be exacerbated in eastern China due to 21st century GHG warming, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 233–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-233-2019, 2019.
China State Council: Action Plan on Prevention and Control of Air Pollution,
China State Council, Beijing, China,
available at: http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2013-09/12/content_2486773.htm (last access: 17 January 2021), 2013.
Deser, C., Phillips, A., Simpson, I., Rosenbloom, N., Coleman D., Lehner, F., and Pendeergrass, A.: Isolating the Evolving Contributions
of Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases: A New CESM1 Large Ensemble
Community Resource, J. Clim., 33, 7835–7858, 2020.
Ding, Y. and Liu, Y.: Analysis of long-term variations of fog and haze in
China in recent 50 years and their relations with atmospheric humidity, Sci.
China Earth Sci., 57, 36–46, 2014.
Donner, L., Wyman, B., Hemler, R., Horowitz, L., Ming, Y., Zhao, M., Golaz, J., Ginoux, P., Lin, S.-J., Schwarzkopf, M., Austin, J., Alaka, G., Cooke, W., Delworth, T., Freidenreich, S., Gordon, C., Griffies, S., Held, I., Hurlin, W., Klein, S., Knutson, T., Langenhorst, A., Lee,H.-C., Lin, Y., Magi, B., Malyshev, S., Milly, P., Naik, V., Nath, M., Pincus, R., Ploshay, J., Ramaswamy, V., Seman, C., Shevliakova, E., Sirutis, J., Stern, W., Stouffer, R., Wilson, R., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A., and Zeng, F.: The
dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation
characteristics of the atmospheric component of the GFDL global coupled
model CM3, J. Clim., 24, 3484–3519, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3955.1, 2011.
Feng, J., Quan, J., Liao, H., Li, Y., and Zhao, X.: An Air Stagnation Index
to Qualify Extreme Haze Events in Northern China, J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 3489–3505, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0354.1, 2018.
Fyfe, J., Boer, G., and Flato, G.: The Arctic and Antarctic oscillations and
their projected changes under global warming, J. Geophys. Res., 26, 1601–1604, 1999.
Griffies, S., Winton, M., Donner, L., Horowitz, L., Downes, S., Farneti, R., Gnanadesikan, A., Hurlin, W., Lee, H.-C., Liang, Z., Palter, J., Samuels, B., Wittenberg, A., Wyman, B., Yin, J., and Zadeh, N.: The GFDL CM3 Coupled Climate
Model: Characteristics of the Ocean and Sea Ice Simulations, J. Clim., 24, 3520–3544, 2011.
GSOD: The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)
Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) database, available at: https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/global-surface-summary-of-the-day-gsod, last access: 9 May 2021.
Han, Z., Zhou, B., Xu, Y., Wu, J., and Shi, Y.: Projected changes in haze pollution potential in China: an ensemble of regional climate model simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10109–10123, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10109-2017, 2017.
He, J., Gong, S., Zhou, C., Lu, S., Wu, L., Chen, Y., Yu, Y., Zhao, S., Yu, L., and Yin, C.: Analyses of winter circulation types and
their impacts on haze pollution in Beijing, Atmos. Environ., 192,
94–103, 2018.
Horton, D., Harshvardhan, and Diffenbaugh, N.: Response of air stagnation
frequency to anthropogenically enhanced radiative forcing, Environ. Res.
Lett., 7, 044034, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044034, 2012.
Horton, D., Skinner, C. B., Singh, D., and Diffenbaugh, N.: Occurrence and
persistence of future atmospheric stagnation events, Nat. Clim. Change,
4, 698–703, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2272, 2014.
Hori, M. E. and Ueda, H.: Impact of global warming on the East Asian winter
monsoon as revealed by nine coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L03713, 2006.
Jeong, J. and Park, R.: Winter monsoon variability and its impact on
aerosol concentrations in East Asia, Environ. Pollut., 221, 285–292, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2016.11.075, 2017.
JRA-55: JRA-55 reanalysis data, available at: https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds628.0/, last access: 9 May 2021.
Kay, J. E., Deser, C., Phillips, A., Mai, A., Hannay, C., Strand, G., Arblaster, J. M., Bates, S.C., Danabasoglu, G., Edwards, J., Holland, M., Kushner, P., Lamarque, J.-F., Lawrence, D., Lindsay, K., Middleton, A., Munoz, E., Neale, R., Oleson, K., Polvani, L., and Vertenstein, M.: The community Earth system model (CESM) large ensemble project: a community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1, 2015.
Kobayashi, S., Ota, Y., Harada, Y., Ebita, A., Moriya, M., Onoda, H., Onogi, K., Kamahori, H., Kobayashi, C., Endo, H., Miyaoka, K., and Takahashi, K.: The JRA-55 reanalysis: general specifications
and basic characteristics, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn.,
93, 5–48, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-001, 2015.
Lamarque, J.-F., Bond, T. C., Eyring, V., Granier, C., Heil, A., Klimont, Z., Lee, D., Liousse, C., Mieville, A., Owen, B., Schultz, M. G., Shindell, D., Smith, S. J., Stehfest, E., Van Aardenne, J., Cooper, O. R., Kainuma, M., Mahowald, N., McConnell, J. R., Naik, V., Riahi, K., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 7017–7039, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-7017-2010, 2010.
Li, Q., Zhang, R., and Wang, Y.: Interannual variation of the wintertime
fog-haze days across central and eastern China and its relation with East
Asian winter monsoon, Int. J. Climatol., 36, 346–354,
2016.
Li, K., Liao, H., Cai, W., and Yang, Y.: Attribution of anthropogenic
influence on atmospheric patterns conducive to recent most severe haze over
eastern China, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 2072–2081.
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076570, 2018.
Liu, C., Zhang, F., Miao, L., Lei, Y., and Yang, Q: Future haze events in
Beijing, China: When climate warms by 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C, Int. J. Climatol., 40,
3689–3700, 2019a.
Liu, Z., Ming, Y., Wang, L., Bollasina, M., Luo, M., Lau, N.-C., and Yim, S.: A Model Investigation of Aerosol Induced Changes in the East
Asian Winter Monsoon, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 10186–10195, 2019b.
Luo, F., Wilcox, L., Dong, B., Su, Q., Chen, W., Dunstone, N., Li, S., and Gao, Y.: Projected near-term changes of
temperature extremes in Europe and China under different aerosol emissions,
Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 034013, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6b34, 2020.
Ming, Y., Ramaswamy, V., Donner, L., and Phillips, V.: A robust
parameterization of cloud droplet activation, J. Atmos. Sci., 63,
1348–1356, 2006.
Niu, F., Li Z., Li, C., Lee, K.-H., and Wang, M.: Increase of wintertime fog
in China: Potential impacts of weakening of the eastern Asian monsoon
circulation and increasing aerosol loading, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D00K20,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013484, 2010.
Pei, L. and Yan, Z.: Diminishing clear winter skies in Beijing towards a
possible future, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 124029, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf032, 2018.
Pei, L., Yan, Z., Sun, Z., Miao, S., and Yao, Y.: Increasing persistent haze in Beijing: potential impacts of weakening East Asian winter monsoons associated with northwestern Pacific sea surface temperature trends, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3173–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3173-2018, 2018.
Pei, L., Yan, Z., Chen, D., and Miao, S.: Climate variability or anthropogenic
emissions: which caused Beijing Haze?, Environ. Res. Lett., 15,
034004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6f11, 2020.
Scannell, C., Booth, B., Dunstone, N., Rowell, D., Bernie, D., Kasoar, M., Voulgarakis, A., Wilcox, L., Navarro, J., Selan, Ø., and Paynter, D.: The Influence of Remote Aerosol Forcing from
Industrialized Economies on the Future Evolution of East and West African
Rainfall, J. Clim., 32, 8335–8354,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0716.1, 2019.
Shindell, D., Miller, R., Schmidt, G., and Pandolfo, L.: Simulation of recent
northern winter climate trends by greenhouse-gas forcing. Nature, 399,
452–455, 1999.
Taylor, K., Stouffer, B., and Meehl, G.: An overview of CMIP5 and the
experiment design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, 2012.
Wang, H., Chen, H., and Liu, J.: Arctic sea ice decline intensified haze
pollution in eastern China, Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 8, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.3878/AOSL20140081, 2015.
2015.
Wang, L. and Chen, W.: An intensity index for the east Asian winter monsoon, J. Clim., 27, 2361, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00086.1,
2014.
Wang, Y., Le, T., Chen, G., Yung, Y., Su, H., Seinfeld, J., and Jiang, J.: Reduced European aerosol emissions
suppress winter extremes over northern Eurasia, Nat. Clim. Change, 10,
225–230, 2020.
Wilcox, L. J., Liu, Z., Samset, B. H., Hawkins, E., Lund, M. T., Nordling, K., Undorf, S., Bollasina, M., Ekman, A. M. L., Krishnan, S., Merikanto, J., and Turner, A. G.: Accelerated increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation from future aerosol reductions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11955–11977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020, 2020.
Williams, K. D., Harris, C. M., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Camp, J., Comer, R. E., Copsey, D., Fereday, D., Graham, T., Hill, R., Hinton, T., Hyder, P., Ineson, S., Masato, G., Milton, S. F., Roberts, M. J., Rowell, D. P., Sanchez, C., Shelly, A., Sinha, B., Walters, D. N., West, A., Woollings, T., and Xavier, P. K.: The Met Office Global Coupled model 2.0 (GC2) configuration, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1509–1524, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1509-2015, 2015.
Wu, P., Ding, Y., and Liu, Y.: Atmospheric circulation and dynamic mechanism for
persistent haze events in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 34, 429–40, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-016-6158-z, 2017.
Zhang, H. and Delworth, T. L.: Robustness of anthropogenically forced
decadal precipitation changes projected for the 21st century, Nat. Commun., 9,
1150, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03611-3, 2018.
Zhang, R., Li, Q., and Zhang, R.: Meteorological conditions for the persistent
severe fog and haze event over eastern China in January, Science China Earth
Sciences, 57, 26–35, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-013-4774-3, 2014.
Zhang, Y., Yin, Z., and Wang, H.: Roles of climate variability on the rapid increases of early winter haze pollution in North China after 2010, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12211–12221, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12211-2020, 2020.
Zheng, B., Tong, D., Li, M., Liu, F., Hong, C., Geng, G., Li, H., Li, X., Peng, L., Qi, J., Yan, L., Zhang, Y., Zhao, H., Zheng, Y., He, K., and Zhang, Q.: Trends in China's anthropogenic emissions since 2010 as the consequence of clean air actions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14095–14111, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14095-2018, 2018.
Short summary
The projected frequency of circulation patterns associated with haze events and global warming increases significantly due to weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon. Rapid reduction in anthropogenic aerosol further increases the frequency of circulation patterns, but haze events are less dangerous. We revealed competing effects of aerosol emission reductions on future haze events through their direct contribution to haze intensity and their influence on the atmospheric circulation patterns.
The projected frequency of circulation patterns associated with haze events and global warming...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint