Articles | Volume 20, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7741-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7741-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Jul 2020
Research article |
| 03 Jul 2020
| 03 Jul 2020
Improving the Southern Ocean cloud albedo biases in a general circulation model
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington, New Zealand
Olaf Morgenstern
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington, New Zealand
Paul Field
Met Office, Exeter, UK
Kalli Furtado
Met Office, Exeter, UK
Jonny Williams
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington, New Zealand
Patrick Hyder
Met Office, Exeter, UK
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Vidya Varma, Olaf Morgenstern, Kalli Furtado, Paul Field, and Jonny Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-438, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We introduce a simple parametrisation whereby the immersion freezing temperature in the model is linked to the mineral dust distribution through a diagnostic function, thus invoking regional differences in the nucleation temperatures instead of the global default value of −10 °C. This provides a functionality to mimic the role of Ice Nucleating Particles in the atmosphere on influencing the short-wave radiation over the Southern Ocean region by impacting the cloud phase.
Peter Kuma, Adrian J. McDonald, Olaf Morgenstern, Simon P. Alexander, John J. Cassano, Sally Garrett, Jamie Halla, Sean Hartery, Mike J. Harvey, Simon Parsons, Graeme Plank, Vidya Varma, and Jonny Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6607–6630, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6607-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6607-2020, 2020
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We evaluate clouds over the Southern Ocean in the climate model HadGEM3 and reanalysis MERRA-2 using ship-based ceilometer and radiosonde observations. We find the models underestimate cloud cover by 18–25 %, with clouds below 2 km dominant in reality but lacking in the models. We find a strong link between clouds, atmospheric stability and sea surface temperature in observations but not in the models, implying that sub-grid processes do not generate enough cloud in response to these conditions.
Laura E. Revell, Stefanie Kremser, Sean Hartery, Mike Harvey, Jane P. Mulcahy, Jonny Williams, Olaf Morgenstern, Adrian J. McDonald, Vidya Varma, Leroy Bird, and Alex Schuddeboom
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 15447–15466, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15447-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15447-2019, 2019
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Aerosols over the Southern Ocean consist primarily of sea salt and sulfate, yet are seasonally biased in our model. We test three sulfate chemistry schemes to investigate DMS oxidation, which forms sulfate aerosol. Simulated cloud droplet number concentrations improve using more complex sulfate chemistry. We also show that a new sea spray aerosol source function, developed from measurements made on a recent Southern Ocean research voyage, improves the model's simulation of aerosol optical depth.
Andrea Klus, Matthias Prange, Vidya Varma, Louis Bruno Tremblay, and Michael Schulz
Clim. Past, 14, 1165–1178, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, 2018
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Numerous proxy records from the northern North Atlantic suggest substantial climate variability including the occurrence of multi-decadal-to-centennial cold events during the Holocene. We analyzed two abrupt cold events in a Holocene simulation using a comprehensive climate model. It is shown that the events were ultimately triggered by prolonged phases of positive North Atlantic Oscillation causing changes in ocean circulation followed by severe cooling, freshening, and expansion of sea ice.
Vidya Varma, Matthias Prange, and Michael Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3859–3873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3859-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3859-2016, 2016
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We compare the results from simulations of the present and the last interglacial, with and without acceleration of the orbital forcing, using a comprehensive coupled climate model. In low latitudes, the simulation of long-term variations in interglacial surface climate is not significantly affected by the use of the acceleration technique and hence model–data comparison of surface variables is therefore not hampered but major repercussions of the orbital forcing are obvious below thermocline.
N. Merz, C. C. Raible, H. Fischer, V. Varma, M. Prange, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 9, 2433–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2433-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2433-2013, 2013
P. Bakker, E. J. Stone, S. Charbit, M. Gröger, U. Krebs-Kanzow, S. P. Ritz, V. Varma, V. Khon, D. J. Lunt, U. Mikolajewicz, M. Prange, H. Renssen, B. Schneider, and M. Schulz
Clim. Past, 9, 605–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-605-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-605-2013, 2013
Weiyu Zhang, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Cyril J. Morcrette, Wuhu Feng, Kalli Furtado, Paul R. Field, Chih-Chieh Chen, Andrew Gettelman, Piers M. Forster, Daniel R. Marsh, and Alexandru Rap
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1573, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1573, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Contrail cirrus is the largest, but also most uncertain contribution of aviation to global warming. We evaluate for the first time the impact of the host climate model on contrail cirrus properties. Substantial differences exist between contrail cirrus formation, persistence, and radiative effects in the host climate models. Reliable contrail cirrus simulations require advanced representation of cloud optical properties and microphysics, which should be better constrained by observations.
Guang Zeng, Richard Querel, Hisako Shiona, Deniz Poyraz, Roeland Van Malderen, Alex Geddes, Penny Smale, Dan Smale, John Robinson, and Olaf Morgenstern
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6413–6432, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6413-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6413-2024, 2024
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We present a homogenised ozonesonde record (1987–2020) for Lauder, a Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude site; identify factors driving ozone trends; and attribute them to anthropogenic forcings using statistical analysis and model simulations. We find that significant negative lower-stratospheric ozone trends identified at Lauder are associated with an increase in tropopause height and that CO2-driven dynamical changes have played an increasingly important role in driving ozone trends.
Erin N. Raif, Sarah L. Barr, Mark D. Tarn, James B. McQuaid, Martin I. Daily, Steven J. Abel, Paul A. Barrett, Keith N. Bower, Paul R. Field, Kenneth S. Carslaw, and Benjamin J. Murray
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1502, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1502, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) allow ice to form in clouds at temperatures warmer than -35°C. We measured INP concentrations over the Norwegian and Barents seas in weather events where cold air is ejected from the Arctic. These concentrations were among the highest measured in the Arctic and it is likely that the INPs were transported to the Arctic from distant regions. These results show it is important to consider hemispheric-scale INP processes to understand INP concentrations in the Arctic.
Declan L. Finney, Alan M. Blyth, Martin Gallagher, Huihui Wu, Graeme J. Nott, Michael I. Biggerstaff, Richard G. Sonnenfeld, Martin Daily, Dan Walker, David Dufton, Keith Bower, Steven Böing, Thomas Choularton, Jonathan Crosier, James Groves, Paul R. Field, Hugh Coe, Benjamin J. Murray, Gary Lloyd, Nicholas A. Marsden, Michael Flynn, Kezhen Hu, Navaneeth M. Thamban, Paul I. Williams, Paul J. Connolly, James B. McQuaid, Joseph Robinson, Zhiqiang Cui, Ralph R. Burton, Gordon Carrie, Robert Moore, Steven J. Abel, Dave Tiddeman, and Graydon Aulich
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2141–2163, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2141-2024, 2024
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The DCMEX (Deep Convective Microphysics Experiment) project undertook an aircraft- and ground-based measurement campaign of New Mexico deep convective clouds during July–August 2022. The campaign coordinated a broad range of instrumentation measuring aerosol, cloud physics, radar signals, thermodynamics, dynamics, electric fields, and weather. The project's objectives included the utilisation of these data with satellite observations to study the anvil cloud radiative effect.
Olaf Morgenstern
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2427, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2427, 2023
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I use errors in climate model simulations of historical surface temperature to derive correction factors for the impacts of greenhouse gases and particles that bring these simulations into agreement with an observational reconstruction. On average, across 14 models a reduction by about 2/3 of the particles-induced cooling would be required, causing only 0.2 K of cooling since 1850. The greenhouse gas warming simulated by several highly sensitive models would also reduce.
Yusuf A. Bhatti, Laura E. Revell, Alex J. Schuddeboom, Adrian J. McDonald, Alex T. Archibald, Jonny Williams, Abhijith U. Venugopal, Catherine Hardacre, and Erik Behrens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15181–15196, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15181-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15181-2023, 2023
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Aerosols are a large source of uncertainty over the Southern Ocean. A dominant source of sulfate aerosol in this region is dimethyl sulfide (DMS), which is poorly simulated by climate models. We show the sensitivity of simulated atmospheric DMS to the choice of oceanic DMS data set and emission scheme. We show that oceanic DMS has twice the influence on atmospheric DMS than the emission scheme. Simulating DMS more accurately in climate models will help to constrain aerosol uncertainty.
Marina Friedel, Gabriel Chiodo, Timofei Sukhodolov, James Keeble, Thomas Peter, Svenja Seeber, Andrea Stenke, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Eugene Rozanov, David Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, and Béatrice Josse
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10235–10254, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023, 2023
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Previously, it has been suggested that springtime Arctic ozone depletion might worsen in the coming decades due to climate change, which might counteract the effect of reduced ozone-depleting substances. Here, we show with different chemistry–climate models that springtime Arctic ozone depletion will likely decrease in the future. Further, we explain why models show a large spread in the projected development of Arctic ozone depletion and use the model spread to constrain future projections.
Jonny Williams, Erik Behrens, Olaf Morgenstern, Peter Gibson, and Joao Teixeira
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1694, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1694, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
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We use open-source cyclone tracking software and state-of-the-art climate models to characterise present-day tropical cyclones – TCs – in the South Pacific before moving on to estimate how they may change in the future. A robust result of this work is the projection of future intensification of TCs. However, the question of their future occurrence frequency is less clear. Under extreme future warming scenarios, we postulate a possible increase in power dissipation per TC of up to 25 %.
Georgia R. Grant, Jonny H. T. Williams, Sebastian Naeher, Osamu Seki, Erin L. McClymont, Molly O. Patterson, Alan M. Haywood, Erik Behrens, Masanobu Yamamoto, and Katelyn Johnson
Clim. Past, 19, 1359–1381, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1359-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1359-2023, 2023
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Regional warming will differ from global warming, and climate models perform poorly in the Southern Ocean. We reconstruct sea surface temperatures in the south-west Pacific during the mid-Pliocene, a time 3 million years ago that represents the long-term outcomes of 3 °C warming, which is expected for the future. Comparing these results to climate model simulations, we show that the south-west Pacific region will warm by 1 °C above the global average if atmospheric CO2 remains above 350 ppm.
Gillian Young McCusker, Jutta Vüllers, Peggy Achtert, Paul Field, Jonathan J. Day, Richard Forbes, Ruth Price, Ewan O'Connor, Michael Tjernström, John Prytherch, Ryan Neely III, and Ian M. Brooks
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4819–4847, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4819-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4819-2023, 2023
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In this study, we show that recent versions of two atmospheric models – the Unified Model and Integrated Forecasting System – overestimate Arctic cloud fraction within the lower troposphere by comparison with recent remote-sensing measurements made during the Arctic Ocean 2018 expedition. The overabundance of cloud is interlinked with the modelled thermodynamic structure, with strong negative temperature biases coincident with these overestimated cloud layers.
Ruth Price, Andrea Baccarini, Julia Schmale, Paul Zieger, Ian M. Brooks, Paul Field, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2927–2961, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2927-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2927-2023, 2023
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Arctic clouds can control how much energy is absorbed by the surface or reflected back to space. Using a computer model of the atmosphere we investigated the formation of atmospheric particles that allow cloud droplets to form. We found that particles formed aloft are transported to the lowest part of the Arctic atmosphere and that this is a key source of particles. Our results have implications for the way Arctic clouds will behave in the future as climate change continues to impact the region.
Kalli Furtado and Paul Field
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3391–3407, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3391-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3391-2022, 2022
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The complex processes involved mean that no simple answer to this
question has so far been discovered: do aerosols increase or decrease precipitation? Using high-resolution weather simulations, we find a self-similar property of rainfall that is not affected by aerosols. Using this invariant, we can collapse all our simulations to a single curve. So, although aerosol effects on rain are many, there may be a universal constraint on the number of degrees of freedom needed to represent them.
Zhiqiang Cui, Alan Blyth, Yahui Huang, Gary Lloyd, Thomas Choularton, Keith Bower, Paul Field, Rachel Hawker, and Lindsay Bennett
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1649–1667, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1649-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1649-2022, 2022
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High concentrations of ice particles were observed at temperatures greater than about –8 C. The default scheme of the secondary ice production cannot explain the high concentrations. Relaxing the conditions for secondary ice production or considering dust aerosol alone is insufficient to produce the observed amount of ice particles. It is likely that multi-thermals play an important role in producing very high concentrations of secondary ice particles in some tropical clouds.
Jie Zhang, Kalli Furtado, Steven T. Turnock, Jane P. Mulcahy, Laura J. Wilcox, Ben B. Booth, David Sexton, Tongwen Wu, Fang Zhang, and Qianxia Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18609–18627, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18609-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18609-2021, 2021
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The CMIP6 ESMs systematically underestimate TAS anomalies in the NH midlatitudes, especially from 1960 to 1990. The anomalous cooling is concurrent in time and space with anthropogenic SO2 emissions. The spurious drop in TAS is attributed to the overestimated aerosol concentrations. The aerosol forcing sensitivity cannot well explain the inter-model spread of PHC biases. And the cloud-amount term accounts for most of the inter-model spread in aerosol forcing sensitivity.
Rachel E. Hawker, Annette K. Miltenberger, Jill S. Johnson, Jonathan M. Wilkinson, Adrian A. Hill, Ben J. Shipway, Paul R. Field, Benjamin J. Murray, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17315–17343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17315-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17315-2021, 2021
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We find that ice-nucleating particles (INPs), aerosols that can initiate the freezing of cloud droplets, cause substantial changes to the properties of radiatively important convectively generated anvil cirrus. The number concentration of INPs had a large effect on ice crystal number concentration while the INP temperature dependence controlled ice crystal size and cloud fraction. The results indicate information on INP number and source is necessary for the representation of cloud glaciation.
Vidya Varma, Olaf Morgenstern, Kalli Furtado, Paul Field, and Jonny Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-438, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a simple parametrisation whereby the immersion freezing temperature in the model is linked to the mineral dust distribution through a diagnostic function, thus invoking regional differences in the nucleation temperatures instead of the global default value of −10 °C. This provides a functionality to mimic the role of Ice Nucleating Particles in the atmosphere on influencing the short-wave radiation over the Southern Ocean region by impacting the cloud phase.
Rachel E. Hawker, Annette K. Miltenberger, Jonathan M. Wilkinson, Adrian A. Hill, Ben J. Shipway, Zhiqiang Cui, Richard J. Cotton, Ken S. Carslaw, Paul R. Field, and Benjamin J. Murray
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5439–5461, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5439-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5439-2021, 2021
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The impact of aerosols on clouds is a large source of uncertainty for future climate projections. Our results show that the radiative properties of a complex convective cloud field in the Saharan outflow region are sensitive to the temperature dependence of ice-nucleating particle concentrations. This means that differences in the aerosol source or composition, for the same aerosol size distribution, can cause differences in the outgoing radiation from regions dominated by tropical convection.
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
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Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system; changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850 to 2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Ohad Harari, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Jian Rao, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Fiona M. O'Connor, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, and Sean Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3725–3740, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, 2021
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Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, and El Niño is the dominant mode of variability in the ocean–atmosphere system. The connection between El Niño and water vapor above ~ 17 km is unclear, with single-model studies reaching a range of conclusions. This study examines this connection in 12 different models. While there are substantial differences among the models, all models appear to capture the fundamental physical processes correctly.
Annette K. Miltenberger and Paul R. Field
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3627–3642, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3627-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3627-2021, 2021
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The formation of ice in clouds is an important processes in mixed-phase and ice-phase clouds. However, the representation of ice formation in numerical models is highly uncertain. In the last decade, several new parameterizations for heterogeneous freezing have been proposed. Here, we investigate the impact of the parameterization choice on the representation of the convective cloud field and compare the impact to that of initial condition uncertainty.
Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Paul T. Griffiths, Catherine Hardacre, Ben T. Johnson, Ron Kahana, James Keeble, Byeonghyeon Kim, Olaf Morgenstern, Jane P. Mulcahy, Mark Richardson, Eddy Robertson, Jeongbyn Seo, Sungbo Shim, João C. Teixeira, Steven T. Turnock, Jonny Williams, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Stephanie Woodward, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1211–1243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, 2021
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This paper calculates how changes in emissions and/or concentrations of different atmospheric constituents since the pre-industrial era have altered the Earth's energy budget at the present day using a metric called effective radiative forcing. The impact of land use change is also assessed. We find that individual contributions do not add linearly, and different Earth system interactions can affect the magnitude of the calculated effective radiative forcing.
Jim M. Haywood, Steven J. Abel, Paul A. Barrett, Nicolas Bellouin, Alan Blyth, Keith N. Bower, Melissa Brooks, Ken Carslaw, Haochi Che, Hugh Coe, Michael I. Cotterell, Ian Crawford, Zhiqiang Cui, Nicholas Davies, Beth Dingley, Paul Field, Paola Formenti, Hamish Gordon, Martin de Graaf, Ross Herbert, Ben Johnson, Anthony C. Jones, Justin M. Langridge, Florent Malavelle, Daniel G. Partridge, Fanny Peers, Jens Redemann, Philip Stier, Kate Szpek, Jonathan W. Taylor, Duncan Watson-Parris, Robert Wood, Huihui Wu, and Paquita Zuidema
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1049–1084, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1049-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1049-2021, 2021
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Every year, the seasonal cycle of biomass burning from agricultural practices in Africa creates a huge plume of smoke that travels many thousands of kilometres over the Atlantic Ocean. This study provides an overview of a measurement campaign called the cloud–aerosol–radiation interaction and forcing for year 2017 (CLARIFY-2017) and documents the rationale, deployment strategy, observations, and key results from the campaign which utilized the heavily equipped FAAM atmospheric research aircraft.
Peter Kuma, Adrian J. McDonald, Olaf Morgenstern, Richard Querel, Israel Silber, and Connor J. Flynn
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 43–72, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-43-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-43-2021, 2021
Hamish Gordon, Paul R. Field, Steven J. Abel, Paul Barrett, Keith Bower, Ian Crawford, Zhiqiang Cui, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Adrian A. Hill, Jonathan Taylor, Jonathan Wilkinson, Huihui Wu, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10997–11024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10997-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10997-2020, 2020
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The Met Office's Unified Model is widely used both for weather forecasting and climate prediction. We present the first version of the model in which both aerosol and cloud particle mass and number concentrations are allowed to evolve separately and independently, which is important for studying how aerosols affect weather and climate. We test the model against aircraft observations near Ascension Island in the Atlantic, focusing on how aerosols can "activate" to become cloud droplets.
Annette K. Miltenberger, Paul R. Field, Adrian H. Hill, and Andrew J. Heymsfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7979–8001, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7979-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7979-2020, 2020
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Orographic wave clouds offer a natural laboratory to investigate cloud microphysical processes and their representation in atmospheric models. They impact the larger-scale flow by a vertical redistribution of moisture and aerosol. We use detailed observations from the ICE-L campaign to evaluate the representation of these clouds in a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model and explore the impact of environmental conditions on the vertical redistribution of moisture.
Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Vincenzo Rizi, Marco Iarlori, Irene Cionni, Ilaria Quaglia, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando Garcia, Patrick Joeckel, Douglas Kinnison, Jean-François Lamarque, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Tatsuya Nagashima, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David Plummer, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
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In this work we analyse the trend in ozone profiles taken at L'Aquila (Italy, 42.4° N) for seventeen years, between 2000 and 2016 and compare them against already available measured ozone trends. We try to understand and explain the observed trends at various heights in light of the simulations from seventeen different model, highlighting the contribution of changes in circulation and chemical ozone loss during this time period.
Marta Abalos, Clara Orbe, Douglas E. Kinnison, David Plummer, Luke D. Oman, Patrick Jöckel, Olaf Morgenstern, Rolando R. Garcia, Guang Zeng, Kane A. Stone, and Martin Dameris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6883–6901, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6883-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6883-2020, 2020
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A set of state-of-the art chemistry–climate models is used to examine future changes in downward transport from the stratosphere, a key contributor to tropospheric ozone. The acceleration of the stratospheric circulation results in increased stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. In the subtropics, downward advection into the troposphere is enhanced due to climate change. At higher latitudes, the ozone reservoir above the tropopause is enlarged due to the stronger circulation and ozone recovery.
Peter Kuma, Adrian J. McDonald, Olaf Morgenstern, Simon P. Alexander, John J. Cassano, Sally Garrett, Jamie Halla, Sean Hartery, Mike J. Harvey, Simon Parsons, Graeme Plank, Vidya Varma, and Jonny Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6607–6630, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6607-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6607-2020, 2020
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We evaluate clouds over the Southern Ocean in the climate model HadGEM3 and reanalysis MERRA-2 using ship-based ceilometer and radiosonde observations. We find the models underestimate cloud cover by 18–25 %, with clouds below 2 km dominant in reality but lacking in the models. We find a strong link between clouds, atmospheric stability and sea surface temperature in observations but not in the models, implying that sub-grid processes do not generate enough cloud in response to these conditions.
Doug McNeall, Jonny Williams, Richard Betts, Ben Booth, Peter Challenor, Peter Good, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2487–2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2487-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2487-2020, 2020
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In the climate model FAMOUS, matching the modelled Amazon rainforest to observations required different land surface parameter settings than for other forests. It was unclear if this discrepancy was due to a bias in the modelled climate or an error in the land surface component of the model. Correcting the climate of the model with a statistical model corrects the simulation of the Amazon forest, suggesting that the land surface component of the model is not the source of the discrepancy.
Kalli Furtado, Paul Field, Yali Luo, Tianjun Zhou, and Adrian Hill
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5093–5110, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5093-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5093-2020, 2020
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By combining observations with simulations from a weather forecasting model, new insights are obtained into extreme rainfall processes. We use a model which includes the effects of aerosols on clouds in a fully consistent way. This greater complexity improves realism but raises the computational cost. We address the cost–benefit relationship of this and show that cloud–aerosol interactions have important, measurable benefits for simulating climate extremes.
Daniel T. McCoy, Paul Field, Hamish Gordon, Gregory S. Elsaesser, and Daniel P. Grosvenor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4085–4103, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4085-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4085-2020, 2020
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Incomplete understanding of how aerosol affects clouds degrades our ability to predict future climate. In particular, it is unclear how aerosol affects the lifetime of clouds. Does it increase or decrease it? This confusion is partially because causality flows from aerosol to clouds and clouds to aerosol, and it is hard to tell what is happening in observations. Here, we use simulations to tell us about how clouds affect aerosol and use this to interpret observations, showing increased lifetime.
Gary Lloyd, Thomas Choularton, Keith Bower, Jonathan Crosier, Martin Gallagher, Michael Flynn, James Dorsey, Dantong Liu, Jonathan W. Taylor, Oliver Schlenczek, Jacob Fugal, Stephan Borrmann, Richard Cotton, Paul Field, and Alan Blyth
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3895–3904, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3895-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3895-2020, 2020
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Measurements of liquid and ice cloud particles were made using an aircraft to penetrate fresh growing convective clouds in the tropical Atlantic. We found small ice particles at surprisingly high temperatures just below freezing. At colder temperatures secondary ice processes rapidly generated high concentrations of ice crystals.
Alexander T. Archibald, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Fraser Dennison, Sandip S. Dhomse, Paul T. Griffiths, Catherine Hardacre, Alan J. Hewitt, Richard S. Hill, Colin E. Johnson, James Keeble, Marcus O. Köhler, Olaf Morgenstern, Jane P. Mulcahy, Carlos Ordóñez, Richard J. Pope, Steven T. Rumbold, Maria R. Russo, Nicholas H. Savage, Alistair Sellar, Marc Stringer, Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, and Guang Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1223–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1223-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1223-2020, 2020
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Here we present a description and evaluation of the UKCA stratosphere–troposphere chemistry scheme (StratTrop vn 1.0) implemented in the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1). UKCA StratTrop represents a substantial step forward compared to previous versions of UKCA. We show here that it is fully suited to the challenges of representing interactions in a coupled Earth system model and identify key areas and components for future development that will make it even better in the future.
Julie M. Nicely, Bryan N. Duncan, Thomas F. Hanisco, Glenn M. Wolfe, Ross J. Salawitch, Makoto Deushi, Amund S. Haslerud, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas E. Kinnison, Andrew Klekociuk, Michael E. Manyin, Virginie Marécal, Olaf Morgenstern, Lee T. Murray, Gunnar Myhre, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, Andrea Pozzer, Ilaria Quaglia, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Susan Strahan, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Daniel M. Westervelt, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1341–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, 2020
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Differences in methane lifetime among global models are large and poorly understood. We use a neural network method and simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative to quantify the factors influencing methane lifetime spread among models and variations over time. UV photolysis, tropospheric ozone, and nitrogen oxides drive large model differences, while the same factors plus specific humidity contribute to a decreasing trend in methane lifetime between 1980 and 2015.
Laura E. Revell, Stefanie Kremser, Sean Hartery, Mike Harvey, Jane P. Mulcahy, Jonny Williams, Olaf Morgenstern, Adrian J. McDonald, Vidya Varma, Leroy Bird, and Alex Schuddeboom
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 15447–15466, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15447-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15447-2019, 2019
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Aerosols over the Southern Ocean consist primarily of sea salt and sulfate, yet are seasonally biased in our model. We test three sulfate chemistry schemes to investigate DMS oxidation, which forms sulfate aerosol. Simulated cloud droplet number concentrations improve using more complex sulfate chemistry. We also show that a new sea spray aerosol source function, developed from measurements made on a recent Southern Ocean research voyage, improves the model's simulation of aerosol optical depth.
George Spill, Philip Stier, Paul R. Field, and Guy Dagan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13507–13517, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13507-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13507-2019, 2019
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Shallow convective clouds are among the most common and least understood clouds in the atmosphere. Here we present simulations of realistic, shallow cloud fields in a large domain, in contrast to typical idealised simulations, and find that in these simulations the response to aerosol perturbations is different.
Andreas Chrysanthou, Amanda C. Maycock, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip Dhomse, Hella Garny, Douglas Kinnison, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Makoto Deushi, Rolando R. Garcia, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Daniele Visioni, and Yousuke Yamashita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11559–11586, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11559-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11559-2019, 2019
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We perform the first multi-model comparison of the impact of nudged meteorology on the stratospheric residual circulation (RC) in chemistry–climate models. Nudging meteorology does not constrain the mean strength of RC compared to free-running simulations, and despite the lack of agreement in the mean circulation, nudging tightly constrains the inter-annual variability in the tropical upward mass flux in the lower stratosphere. In summary, nudging strongly affects the representation of RC.
Kévin Lamy, Thierry Portafaix, Béatrice Josse, Colette Brogniez, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Hassan Bencherif, Laura Revell, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Michaela I. Hegglin, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Ben Liley, Virginie Marecal, Olaf Morgenstern, Andrea Stenke, Guang Zeng, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Neil Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Glauco Di Genova, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rong-Ming Hu, Douglas Kinnison, Michael Kotkamp, Richard McKenzie, Martine Michou, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Daniele Visioni, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10087–10110, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019, 2019
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In this study, we simulate the ultraviolet radiation evolution during the 21st century on Earth's surface using the output from several numerical models which participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative. We present four possible futures which depend on greenhouse gases emissions. The role of ozone-depleting substances, greenhouse gases and aerosols are investigated. Our results emphasize the important role of aerosols for future ultraviolet radiation in the Northern Hemisphere.
Ohad Harari, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Sean Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9253–9268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9253-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9253-2019, 2019
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Ozone depletion in the Antarctic has been shown to influence surface conditions, but the effects of ozone depletion in the Arctic on surface climate are unclear. We show that Arctic ozone does influence surface climate in both polar regions and tropical regions, though the proximate cause of these surface impacts is not yet clear.
Petr Šácha, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Petr Pišoft, Simone Dietmüller, Laura de la Torre, David A. Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Neal Butchart, and Juan A. Añel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7627–7647, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7627-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7627-2019, 2019
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Climate models robustly project a Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) acceleration in the course of climate change. Analyzing mean age of stratospheric air (AoA) from a subset of climate projection simulations, we find a remarkable agreement in simulating the largest AoA trends in the extratropical stratosphere. This is shown to be related with the upward shift of the circulation, resulting in a so-called stratospheric shrinkage, which could be one of the so-far-omitted BDC acceleration drivers.
Huang Yang, Darryn W. Waugh, Clara Orbe, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, Douglas E. Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Simone Tilmes, David A. Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Susan E. Strahan, Kane A. Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 5511–5528, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5511-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5511-2019, 2019
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We evaluate the performance of a suite of models in simulating the large-scale transport from the northern midlatitudes to the Arctic using a CO-like idealized tracer. We find a large multi-model spread of the Arctic concentration of this CO-like tracer that is well correlated with the differences in the location of the midlatitude jet as well as the northern Hadley Cell edge. Our results suggest the Hadley Cell is key and zonal-mean transport by surface meridional flow needs better constraint.
Fraser Dennison, James Keeble, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, N. Luke Abraham, and Xin Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1227–1239, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1227-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1227-2019, 2019
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Two developments are made to the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols (UKCA) model to improve simulation of stratospheric ozone. The first is the addition of a solar cycle. The influence on ozone from the solar cycle is found to be 1–2 %, which is consistent with other studies. The second is to the heterogeneous chemistry, the most significant change being the addition of reactions involving bromine species. This was shown to reduce ozone biases relative to observations in most regions.
Daniel T. McCoy, Paul R. Field, Gregory S. Elsaesser, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, Brian H. Kahn, Mark D. Zelinka, Chihiro Kodama, Thorsten Mauritsen, Benoit Vanniere, Malcolm Roberts, Pier L. Vidale, David Saint-Martin, Aurore Voldoire, Rein Haarsma, Adrian Hill, Ben Shipway, and Jonathan Wilkinson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1147–1172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1147-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1147-2019, 2019
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The largest single source of uncertainty in the climate sensitivity predicted by global climate models is how much low-altitude clouds change as the climate warms. Models predict that the amount of liquid within and the brightness of low-altitude clouds increase in the extratropics with warming. We show that increased fluxes of moisture into extratropical storms in the midlatitudes explain the majority of the observed trend and the modeled increase in liquid water within these storms.
Roland Eichinger, Simone Dietmüller, Hella Garny, Petr Šácha, Thomas Birner, Harald Bönisch, Giovanni Pitari, Daniele Visioni, Andrea Stenke, Eugene Rozanov, Laura Revell, David A. Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Luke Oman, Makoto Deushi, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando Garcia, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Kane Adam Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 921–940, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-921-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-921-2019, 2019
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To shed more light upon the changes in stratospheric circulation in the 21st century, climate projection simulations of 10 state-of-the-art global climate models, spanning from 1960 to 2100, are analyzed. The study shows that in addition to changes in transport, mixing also plays an important role in stratospheric circulation and that the properties of mixing vary over time. Furthermore, the influence of mixing is quantified and a dynamical framework is provided to understand the changes.
Laura E. Revell, Andrea Stenke, Fiona Tummon, Aryeh Feinberg, Eugene Rozanov, Thomas Peter, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Robyn Schofield, Kane Stone, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16155–16172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, 2018
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Global models such as those participating in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) consistently simulate biases in tropospheric ozone compared with observations. We performed an advanced statistical analysis with one of the CCMI models to understand the cause of the bias. We found that emissions of ozone precursor gases are the dominant driver of the bias, implying either that the emissions are too large, or that the way in which the model handles emissions needs to be improved.
Hamish Gordon, Paul R. Field, Steven J. Abel, Mohit Dalvi, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Adrian A. Hill, Ben T. Johnson, Annette K. Miltenberger, Masaru Yoshioka, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15261–15289, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15261-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15261-2018, 2018
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Smoke from African fires is frequently transported across the Atlantic Ocean, where it interacts with clouds. We simulate the interaction of the smoke with the clouds, and the consequences of this for the solar radiation the clouds reflect. The simulations use a new regional configuration of the UK Met Office climate model. Our simulations indicate that the properties of the clouds, in particular their height and reflectivity, and the fractional cloud cover, are strongly affected by the smoke.
Andrea Klus, Matthias Prange, Vidya Varma, Louis Bruno Tremblay, and Michael Schulz
Clim. Past, 14, 1165–1178, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, 2018
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Numerous proxy records from the northern North Atlantic suggest substantial climate variability including the occurrence of multi-decadal-to-centennial cold events during the Holocene. We analyzed two abrupt cold events in a Holocene simulation using a comprehensive climate model. It is shown that the events were ultimately triggered by prolonged phases of positive North Atlantic Oscillation causing changes in ocean circulation followed by severe cooling, freshening, and expansion of sea ice.
Blanca Ayarzagüena, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Ulrike Langematz, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Steven C. Hardiman, Patrick Jöckel, Andrew Klekociuk, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David A. Plummer, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11277–11287, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, 2018
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Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are natural major disruptions of the polar stratospheric circulation that also affect surface weather. In the literature there are conflicting claims as to whether SSWs will change in the future. The confusion comes from studies using different models and methods. Here we settle the question by analysing 12 models with a consistent methodology, to show that no robust changes in frequency and other features are expected over the 21st century.
David Storkey, Adam T. Blaker, Pierre Mathiot, Alex Megann, Yevgeny Aksenov, Edward W. Blockley, Daley Calvert, Tim Graham, Helene T. Hewitt, Patrick Hyder, Till Kuhlbrodt, Jamie G. L. Rae, and Bablu Sinha
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3187–3213, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3187-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3187-2018, 2018
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We document the latest version of the shared UK global configuration of the
NEMO ocean model. This configuration will be used as part of the climate
models for the UK contribution to the IPCC 6th Assessment Report.
30-year integrations forced with atmospheric forcing show that the new
configurations have an improved simulation in the Southern Ocean with the
near-surface temperatures and salinities and the sea ice all matching the
observations more closely.
Robin G. Stevens, Katharina Loewe, Christopher Dearden, Antonios Dimitrelos, Anna Possner, Gesa K. Eirund, Tomi Raatikainen, Adrian A. Hill, Benjamin J. Shipway, Jonathan Wilkinson, Sami Romakkaniemi, Juha Tonttila, Ari Laaksonen, Hannele Korhonen, Paul Connolly, Ulrike Lohmann, Corinna Hoose, Annica M. L. Ekman, Ken S. Carslaw, and Paul R. Field
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11041–11071, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11041-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11041-2018, 2018
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We perform a model intercomparison of summertime high Arctic clouds. Observed concentrations of aerosol particles necessary for cloud formation fell to extremely low values, coincident with a transition from cloudy to nearly cloud-free conditions. Previous analyses have suggested that at these low concentrations, the radiative properties of the clouds are determined primarily by these particle concentrations. The model results strongly support this hypothesis.
Annette K. Miltenberger, Paul R. Field, Adrian A. Hill, Ben J. Shipway, and Jonathan M. Wilkinson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10593–10613, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10593-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10593-2018, 2018
Sandip S. Dhomse, Douglas Kinnison, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Ross J. Salawitch, Irene Cionni, Michaela I. Hegglin, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alex T. Archibald, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Peter Braesicke, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Stacey Frith, Steven C. Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, Rong-Ming Hu, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Oliver Kirner, Stefanie Kremser, Ulrike Langematz, Jared Lewis, Marion Marchand, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8409–8438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, 2018
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We analyse simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion by anthropogenic chlorine and bromine. The simulations from 20 models project that global column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2047 (uncertainty range 2042–2052). Return dates in other regions vary depending on factors related to climate change and importance of chlorine and bromine. Column ozone in the tropics may continue to decline.
Clara Orbe, Huang Yang, Darryn W. Waugh, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, Douglas E. Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Simone Tilmes, David A. Plummer, John F. Scinocca, Beatrice Josse, Virginie Marecal, Patrick Jöckel, Luke D. Oman, Susan E. Strahan, Makoto Deushi, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Kohei Yoshida, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yousuke Yamashita, Andreas Stenke, Laura Revell, Timofei Sukhodolov, Eugene Rozanov, Giovanni Pitari, Daniele Visioni, Kane A. Stone, Robyn Schofield, and Antara Banerjee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7217–7235, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018, 2018
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In this study we compare a few atmospheric transport properties among several numerical models that are used to study the influence of atmospheric chemistry on climate. We show that there are large differences among models in terms of the timescales that connect the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, where greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances are emitted, to the Southern Hemisphere. Our results may have important implications for how models represent atmospheric composition.
Simone Dietmüller, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Thomas Birner, Harald Boenisch, Giovanni Pitari, Eva Mancini, Daniele Visioni, Andrea Stenke, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, David A. Plummer, John Scinocca, Patrick Jöckel, Luke Oman, Makoto Deushi, Shibata Kiyotaka, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando Garcia, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Kane Adam Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6699–6720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6699-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6699-2018, 2018
Daniel T. McCoy, Paul R. Field, Anja Schmidt, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Frida A.-M. Bender, Ben J. Shipway, Adrian A. Hill, Jonathan M. Wilkinson, and Gregory S. Elsaesser
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5821–5846, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5821-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5821-2018, 2018
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Here we use a combination of global convection-permitting models, satellite observations and the Holuhraun volcanic eruption to demonstrate that aerosol enhances the cloud liquid content and brightness of midlatitude cyclones. This is important because the strength of anthropogenic radiative forcing is uncertain, leading to uncertainty in the climate sensitivity consistent with observed temperature record.
Annette K. Miltenberger, Paul R. Field, Adrian A. Hill, Phil Rosenberg, Ben J. Shipway, Jonathan M. Wilkinson, Robert Scovell, and Alan M. Blyth
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3119–3145, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3119-2018, 2018
Daniel T. McCoy, Frida A.-M. Bender, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Johannes K. Mohrmann, Dennis L. Hartmann, Robert Wood, and Paul R. Field
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2035–2047, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2035-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2035-2018, 2018
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The interaction between clouds and aerosols represents the largest source of uncertainty in the anthropogenic radiative forcing. Cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) is the state variable that moderates the interaction between aerosol and clouds. Here we show that CDNC decreases off the coasts of East Asia and North America due to controls on emissions. We support this analysis through an examination of volcanism in Hawaii and Vanuatu.
Olaf Morgenstern, Kane A. Stone, Robyn Schofield, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yousuke Yamashita, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando R. Garcia, Kengo Sudo, David A. Plummer, John Scinocca, Luke D. Oman, Michael E. Manyin, Guang Zeng, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Laura E. Revell, Giovanni Pitari, Eva Mancini, Glauco Di Genova, Daniele Visioni, Sandip S. Dhomse, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1091–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1091-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1091-2018, 2018
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We assess how ozone as simulated by a group of chemistry–climate models responds to variations in man-made climate gases and ozone-depleting substances. We find some agreement, particularly in the middle and upper stratosphere, but also considerable disagreement elsewhere. Such disagreement affects the reliability of future ozone projections based on these models, and also constitutes a source of uncertainty in climate projections using prescribed ozone derived from these simulations.
Fraser Dennison, Adrian McDonald, and Olaf Morgenstern
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14075–14084, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14075-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14075-2017, 2017
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The Antarctic ozone is not centred directly over the pole. In this research we examine how the position and shape of the ozone hole changes using a chemistry–climate model. As ozone becomes increasingly depleted during the late 20th century the centre of the ozone hole moves toward the west and becomes more circular. As the ozone hole recovers over the course of the 21st century the ozone hole moves back towards the east.
Paul J. Valdes, Edward Armstrong, Marcus P. S. Badger, Catherine D. Bradshaw, Fran Bragg, Michel Crucifix, Taraka Davies-Barnard, Jonathan J. Day, Alex Farnsworth, Chris Gordon, Peter O. Hopcroft, Alan T. Kennedy, Natalie S. Lord, Dan J. Lunt, Alice Marzocchi, Louise M. Parry, Vicky Pope, William H. G. Roberts, Emma J. Stone, Gregory J. L. Tourte, and Jonny H. T. Williams
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3715–3743, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3715-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3715-2017, 2017
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In this paper we describe the family of climate models used by the BRIDGE research group at the University of Bristol as well as by various other institutions. These models are based on the UK Met Office HadCM3 models and here we describe the various modifications which have been made as well as the key features of a number of configurations in use.
Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, Hisako Shiona, Alan J. Thomas, Richard R. Querel, and Sylvia E. Nichol
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10495–10513, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10495-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10495-2017, 2017
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The long-term ozonesonde record from Lauder, New Zealand, which covers 1987 to 2014, shows a significant positive trend in lower tropospheric ozone, and a significant negative trend in the tropopause region. We conduct a statistical and chemistry–climate model analysis to identify the causes of these trends. We attribute these trends to anthropogenic influences and large-scale dynamical effects such as increasing tropopause height and an increase in stratosphere–troposphere exchange.
Kevin M. Smalley, Andrew E. Dessler, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Marion Marchand, Olaf Morgenstern, David A. Plummer, Kiyotaka Shibata, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 8031–8044, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8031-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8031-2017, 2017
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This paper explains a new way to evaluate simulated lower-stratospheric water vapor. We use a multivariate linear regression to predict 21st century lower stratospheric water vapor within 12 chemistry climate models using tropospheric warming, the Brewer–Dobson circulation, and the quasi-biennial oscillation as predictors. This methodology produce strong fits to simulated water vapor, and potentially represents a superior method to evaluate model trends in lower-stratospheric water vapor.
Daniel P. Grosvenor, Paul R. Field, Adrian A. Hill, and Benjamin J. Shipway
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5155–5183, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5155-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5155-2017, 2017
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We used a weather model to simulate low-level layer clouds that lie off the coast of Chile and tested how they would be affected by airborne particulate matter (aerosols) according to the model. We found that as aerosols were increased, the clouds reflected more and more of the sun’s incoming energy due to the combined effects of the cloud droplets becoming smaller, the thickening of clouds, and increased areal coverage. However, the latter two effects were only important at low aerosol levels.
Céline Planche, Graham W. Mann, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, John H. Marsham, and Paul R. Field
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3371–3384, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3371-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3371-2017, 2017
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A convection-permitting limited area model with prognostic aerosol microphysics is applied to investigate how concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in the marine boundary layer are affected by high-resolution dynamical and thermodynamic fields at sub-climate model scale. We gain new insight into the way primary sea-salt and secondary sulfate particles contribute to the overall CCN variance, and find a marked difference in the variability of super- and sub-micron CCN.
Olaf Morgenstern, Michaela I. Hegglin, Eugene Rozanov, Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando R. Garcia, Steven C. Hardiman, Larry W. Horowitz, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Michael E. Manyin, Marion Marchand, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 639–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, 2017
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We present a review of the make-up of 20 models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). In comparison to earlier such activities, most of these models comprise a whole-atmosphere chemistry, and several of them include an interactive ocean module. This makes them suitable for studying the interactions of tropospheric air quality, stratospheric ozone, and climate. The paper lays the foundation for other studies using the CCMI simulations for scientific analysis.
Jason Holt, Patrick Hyder, Mike Ashworth, James Harle, Helene T. Hewitt, Hedong Liu, Adrian L. New, Stephen Pickles, Andrew Porter, Ekaterina Popova, J. Icarus Allen, John Siddorn, and Richard Wood
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 499–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-499-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-499-2017, 2017
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Accurately representing coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models is one of the grand challenges of Earth system science. Here, we explore what the options are for improving this by exploring what the important physical processes are that need to be represented. We use a simple scale analysis to investigate how large the resulting models would need to be. We then compare this with how computer power is increasing to provide estimates of when this might be feasible in the future.
Doug McNeall, Jonny Williams, Ben Booth, Richard Betts, Peter Challenor, Andy Wiltshire, and David Sexton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 917–935, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-917-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-917-2016, 2016
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We compare simulated with observed forests to constrain uncertain input parameters of the land surface component of a climate model.
We find that the model is unlikely to be able to simulate the Amazon and other major forests simultaneously at any one parameter set, suggesting a bias in the model's representation of the Amazon.
We find we cannot constrain parameters individually, but we can rule out large areas of joint parameter space.
Laura López-Comí, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Sarah L. Masters, Richard R. Querel, and Gerald E. Nedoluha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14599–14619, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14599-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14599-2016, 2016
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The hydroxyl radical (OH) is known for removing various pollutants from the atmosphere. Chemistry–climate models disagree on how much OH is found in the atmosphere. Here we use a single column model, set up for Lauder (New Zealand), to assess how OH responds to correcting model biases in long-lived constituents and temperature. We find some considerable sensitivity to correcting water vapour and ozone, with lesser contributions due to correcting methane, carbon monoxide, and temperature.
Vidya Varma, Matthias Prange, and Michael Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3859–3873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3859-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3859-2016, 2016
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We compare the results from simulations of the present and the last interglacial, with and without acceleration of the orbital forcing, using a comprehensive coupled climate model. In low latitudes, the simulation of long-term variations in interglacial surface climate is not significantly affected by the use of the acceleration technique and hence model–data comparison of surface variables is therefore not hampered but major repercussions of the orbital forcing are obvious below thermocline.
Helene T. Hewitt, Malcolm J. Roberts, Pat Hyder, Tim Graham, Jamie Rae, Stephen E. Belcher, Romain Bourdallé-Badie, Dan Copsey, Andrew Coward, Catherine Guiavarch, Chris Harris, Richard Hill, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Gurvan Madec, Matthew S. Mizielinski, Erica Neininger, Adrian L. New, Jean-Christophe Rioual, Bablu Sinha, David Storkey, Ann Shelly, Livia Thorpe, and Richard A. Wood
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3655–3670, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3655-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3655-2016, 2016
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We examine the impact in a coupled model of increasing atmosphere and ocean horizontal resolution and the frequency of coupling between the atmosphere and ocean. We demonstrate that increasing the ocean resolution from 1/4 degree to 1/12 degree has a major impact on ocean circulation and global heat transports. The results add to the body of evidence suggesting that ocean resolution is an important consideration when developing coupled models for weather and climate applications.
Robert J. Farrington, Paul J. Connolly, Gary Lloyd, Keith N. Bower, Michael J. Flynn, Martin W. Gallagher, Paul R. Field, Chris Dearden, and Thomas W. Choularton
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4945–4966, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4945-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4945-2016, 2016
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This paper assesses the reasons for high ice number concentrations observed in orographic clouds by comparing observations with model simulations over Jungfraujoch, Switzerland. The results suggest that ice nuclei do not significantly contribute to the high concentrations and that a surface source of ice crystals is responsible for the witnessed ice number concentrations.
Kane A. Stone, Olaf Morgenstern, David J. Karoly, Andrew R. Klekociuk, W. John French, N. Luke Abraham, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 2401–2415, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2401-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2401-2016, 2016
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This paper describes the set-up and evaluation of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator – chemistry-climate model.
Emphasis is placed on the Antarctic ozone hole, which is very important considering its role modulating Southern Hemisphere surface climate. While the model simulates the global distribution of ozone well, there is a disparity in the vertical location of springtime ozone depletion over Antarctica, highlighting important areas for future development.
Emphasis is placed on the Antarctic ozone hole, which is very important considering its role modulating Southern Hemisphere surface climate. While the model simulates the global distribution of ozone well, there is a disparity in the vertical location of springtime ozone depletion over Antarctica, highlighting important areas for future development.
G. Zeng, J. E. Williams, J. A. Fisher, L. K. Emmons, N. B. Jones, O. Morgenstern, J. Robinson, D. Smale, C. Paton-Walsh, and D. W. T. Griffith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7217–7245, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7217-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7217-2015, 2015
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We assess the impact of biogenic emissions on CO and HCHO in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), with simulations using different emission inventories. Differences in biogenic emissions result in large differences on modelled CO in the source and the remote regions. Substantial inter-model differences exist. Models significantly underestimate observed HCHO columns in the SH, suggesting missing sources in the models. Differences in the CO/OH/CH4 chemistry lead to differences in HCHO in remote regions.
K. D. Williams, C. M. Harris, A. Bodas-Salcedo, J. Camp, R. E. Comer, D. Copsey, D. Fereday, T. Graham, R. Hill, T. Hinton, P. Hyder, S. Ineson, G. Masato, S. F. Milton, M. J. Roberts, D. P. Rowell, C. Sanchez, A. Shelly, B. Sinha, D. N. Walters, A. West, T. Woollings, and P. K. Xavier
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1509–1524, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1509-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1509-2015, 2015
A. Korolev and P. R. Field
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 761–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-761-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-761-2015, 2015
A. J. Baran, K. Furtado, L.-C. Labonnote, S. Havemann, J.-C. Thelen, and F. Marenco
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 1105–1127, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1105-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1105-2015, 2015
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The relationship between the shape of cirrus scattering phase functions and the atmospheric state is investigated using space-based multi-angle remote sensing measurements and high-resolution numerical weather prediction model output of the relative humidity field with respect to ice (RHi). It is found that on a pixel-by-pixel basis, the most featureless phase functions are generally associated with RHi>1, whilst for RHi<1, a unique model phase function could not be assigned to the pixel.
S. S. Dhomse, K. M. Emmerson, G. W. Mann, N. Bellouin, K. S. Carslaw, M. P. Chipperfield, R. Hommel, N. L. Abraham, P. Telford, P. Braesicke, M. Dalvi, C. E. Johnson, F. O'Connor, O. Morgenstern, J. A. Pyle, T. Deshler, J. M. Zawodny, and L. W. Thomason
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11221–11246, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11221-2014, 2014
A. Megann, D. Storkey, Y. Aksenov, S. Alderson, D. Calvert, T. Graham, P. Hyder, J. Siddorn, and B. Sinha
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1069–1092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1069-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1069-2014, 2014
F. M. O'Connor, C. E. Johnson, O. Morgenstern, N. L. Abraham, P. Braesicke, M. Dalvi, G. A. Folberth, M. G. Sanderson, P. J. Telford, A. Voulgarakis, P. J. Young, G. Zeng, W. J. Collins, and J. A. Pyle
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 41–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-41-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-41-2014, 2014
N. Merz, C. C. Raible, H. Fischer, V. Varma, M. Prange, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 9, 2433–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2433-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2433-2013, 2013
P. Bakker, E. J. Stone, S. Charbit, M. Gröger, U. Krebs-Kanzow, S. P. Ritz, V. Varma, V. Khon, D. J. Lunt, U. Mikolajewicz, M. Prange, H. Renssen, B. Schneider, and M. Schulz
Clim. Past, 9, 605–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-605-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-605-2013, 2013
P. J. Telford, N. L. Abraham, A. T. Archibald, P. Braesicke, M. Dalvi, O. Morgenstern, F. M. O'Connor, N. A. D. Richards, and J. A. Pyle
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 161–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-161-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-161-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Clouds and Precipitation | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Present-day correlations are insufficient to predict cloud albedo change by anthropogenic aerosols in E3SM v2
Simulations of primary and secondary ice production during an Arctic mixed-phase cloud case from the Ny-Ålesund Aerosol Cloud Experiment (NASCENT) campaign
Microphysical characteristics of precipitation within convective overshooting over East China observed by GPM DPR and ERA5
Effects of radiative cooling on advection fog over the northwest Pacific Ocean: observations and large-eddy simulations
Evaluating the Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen process in ICON in large-eddy mode with in situ observations from the CLOUDLAB project
Aerosol-induced closure of marine cloud cells: enhanced effects in the presence of precipitation
Impact of ice multiplication on the cloud electrification of a cold-season thunderstorm: a numerical case study
Developing a climatological simplification of aerosols to enter the cloud microphysics of a global climate model
Interactions between trade wind clouds and local forcings over the Great Barrier Reef: a case study using convection-permitting simulations
Variability in the properties of the distribution of the relative humidity with respect to ice: implications for contrail formation
Simulating the seeder–feeder impacts on cloud ice and precipitation over the Alps
Cloud response to co-condensation of water and organic vapors over the boreal forest
Distribution and morphology of non-persistent contrail and persistent contrail formation areas in ERA5
Above-cloud concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei help to sustain some Arctic low-level clouds
Revisiting the evolution of downhill thunderstorms over Beijing: A new perspective from radar wind profiler mesonet
How well can persistent contrails be predicted? – An update
Contrail formation on ambient aerosol particles for aircraft with hydrogen combustion: a box model trajectory study
Effects of intermittent aerosol forcing on the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition
Finite domains cause bias in measured and modeled distributions of cloud sizes
Cloud properties and their projected changes in CMIP models with low to high climate sensitivity
A systematic evaluation of high-cloud controlling factors
Water isotopic characterisation of the cloud–circulation coupling in the North Atlantic trades – Part 2: The imprint of the atmospheric circulation at different scales
Impact of urban land use on mean and heavy rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon
Tracking precipitation features and associated large-scale environments over southeastern Texas
Understanding Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in a Single-Column Model: Intercomparison with Process-Level Models and Evaluation against ACTIVATE Field Measurements
Towards a more reliable forecast of ice supersaturation: concept of a one-moment ice-cloud scheme that avoids saturation adjustment
Opinion: Tropical cirrus – from micro-scale processes to climate-scale impacts
Exploring aerosol-cloud interactions in liquid-phase clouds over eastern China and its adjacent ocean using the WRF-Chem-SBM model
Water isotopic characterisation of the cloud–circulation coupling in the North Atlantic trades – Part 1: A process-oriented evaluation of COSMOiso simulations with EUREC4A observations
Assimilation of 3D polarimetric microphysical retrievals in a convective-scale NWP system
Sensitivity of cloud-phase distribution to cloud microphysics and thermodynamics in simulated deep convective clouds and SEVIRI retrievals
Assessing the destructiveness of tropical cyclones induced by anthropogenic aerosols in an atmosphere–ocean coupled framework
Opinion: A critical evaluation of the evidence for aerosol invigoration of deep convection
Historical (1960–2014) lightning and LNOx trends and their controlling factors in a chemistry–climate model
The chance of freezing – a conceptional study to parameterize temperature-dependent freezing by including randomness of ice-nucleating particle concentrations
Evaluation of hygroscopic cloud seeding in warm-rain processes by a hybrid microphysics scheme using a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model: a real case study
Radiation fog properties in two consecutive events under polluted and clean conditions in the Yangtze River Delta, China: a simulation study
A bin microphysics parcel model investigation of secondary ice formation in an idealised shallow convective cloud
Influence of atmospheric rivers and associated weather systems on precipitation in the Arctic
Insights of warm-cloud biases in Community Atmospheric Model 5 and 6 from the single-column modeling framework and Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) observations
Interaction of microphysics and dynamics in a warm conveyor belt simulated with the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model
Does prognostic seeding along flight tracks produce the desired effects of cirrus cloud thinning?
Large-eddy simulation of a two-layer boundary-layer cloud system from the Arctic Ocean 2018 expedition
Opposing trends of cloud coverage over land and ocean under global warming
Aerosol–cloud–radiation interaction during Saharan dust episodes: the dusty cirrus puzzle
Aerosol–cloud impacts on aerosol detrainment and rainout in shallow maritime tropical clouds
Mixed-phase direct numerical simulation: ice growth in cloud-top generating cells
Aerosol impacts on the entrainment efficiency of Arctic mixed-phase convection in a simulated air mass over open water
Evaluating Arctic clouds modelled with the Unified Model and Integrated Forecasting System
Evaluation of aerosol–cloud interactions in E3SM using a Lagrangian framework
Naser Mahfouz, Johannes Mülmenstädt, and Susannah Burrows
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7253–7260, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7253-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7253-2024, 2024
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Climate models are our primary tool to probe past, present, and future climate states unlike the more recent observation record. By constructing a hypothetical model configuration, we show that present-day correlations are insufficient to predict a persistent uncertainty in climate projection (how much sun because clouds will reflect in a changing climate). We hope our result will contribute to the scholarly conversation on better utilizing observations to constrain climate uncertainties.
Britta Schäfer, Robert Oscar David, Paraskevi Georgakaki, Julie Thérèse Pasquier, Georgia Sotiropoulou, and Trude Storelvmo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7179–7202, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7179-2024, 2024
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Mixed-phase clouds, i.e., clouds consisting of ice and supercooled water, are very common in the Arctic. However, how these clouds form is often not correctly represented in standard weather models. We show that both ice crystal concentrations in the cloud and precipitation from the cloud can be improved in the model when aerosol concentrations are prescribed from observations and when more processes for ice multiplication, i.e., the production of new ice particles from existing ice, are added.
Nan Sun, Gaopeng Lu, and Yunfei Fu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7123–7135, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7123-2024, 2024
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Microphysical characteristics of convective overshooting are essential but poorly understood, and we examine them by using the latest data. (1) Convective overshooting events mainly occur over NC (Northeast China) and northern MEC (Middle and East China). (2) Radar reflectivity of convective overshooting over NC accounts for a higher proportion below the zero level, while the opposite is the case for MEC and SC (South China). (3) Droplets of convective overshooting are large but sparse.
Liu Yang, Saisai Ding, Jing-Wu Liu, and Su-Ping Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6809–6824, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6809-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6809-2024, 2024
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Advection fog occurs when warm and moist air moves over a cold sea surface. In this situation, the temperature of the foggy air usually drops below the sea surface temperature (SST), particularly at night. High-resolution simulations show that the cooling effect of longwave radiation from the top of the fog layer permeates through the fog, resulting in a cooling of the surface air below SST. This study emphasizes the significance of monitoring air temperature to enhance sea fog forecasting.
Nadja Omanovic, Sylvaine Ferrachat, Christopher Fuchs, Jan Henneberger, Anna J. Miller, Kevin Ohneiser, Fabiola Ramelli, Patric Seifert, Robert Spirig, Huiying Zhang, and Ulrike Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6825–6844, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6825-2024, 2024
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We present simulations with a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model to study the growth of ice crystals in low clouds following glaciogenic seeding. We show that the simulated ice crystals grow slower than observed and do not consume as many cloud droplets as measured in the field. This may have implications for forecasting precipitation, as the ice phase is crucial for precipitation at middle and high latitudes.
Matthew W. Christensen, Peng Wu, Adam C. Varble, Heng Xiao, and Jerome D. Fast
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6455–6476, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6455-2024, 2024
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Clouds are essential to keep Earth cooler by reflecting sunlight back to space. We show that an increase in aerosol concentration suppresses precipitation in clouds, causing them to accumulate water and expand in a polluted environment with stronger turbulence and radiative cooling. This process enhances their reflectance by 51 %. It is therefore prudent to account for cloud fraction changes in assessments of aerosol–cloud interactions to improve predictions of climate change.
Jing Yang, Shiye Huang, Tianqi Yang, Qilin Zhang, Yuting Deng, and Yubao Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5989–6010, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5989-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5989-2024, 2024
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This study contributes to filling the dearth of understanding the impacts of different secondary ice production (SIP) processes on the cloud electrification in cold-season thunderstorms. The results suggest that SIP, especially the rime-splintering process and the shattering of freezing drops, has significant impacts on the charge structure of the storm. In addition, the modeled radar composite reflectivity and flash rate are improved after implementing the SIP processes in the model.
Ulrike Proske, Sylvaine Ferrachat, and Ulrike Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5907–5933, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5907-2024, 2024
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Climate models include treatment of aerosol particles because these influence clouds and radiation. Over time their representation has grown increasingly detailed. This complexity may hinder our understanding of model behaviour. Thus here we simplify the aerosol representation of our climate model by prescribing mean concentrations, which saves run time and helps to discover unexpected model behaviour. We conclude that simplifications provide a new perspective for model study and development.
Wenhui Zhao, Yi Huang, Steven Siems, Michael Manton, and Daniel Harrison
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5713–5736, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5713-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5713-2024, 2024
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We studied how shallow clouds and rain behave over the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) using a detailed weather model. We found that the shape of the land, especially mountains, and particles in the air play big roles in influencing these clouds. Surprisingly, the sea's temperature had a smaller effect. Our research helps us understand the GBR's climate and how various factors can influence it, where the importance of the local cloud in thermal coral bleaching has recently been identified.
Sidiki Sanogo, Olivier Boucher, Nicolas Bellouin, Audran Borella, Kevin Wolf, and Susanne Rohs
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5495–5511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5495-2024, 2024
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Relative humidity relative to ice (RHi) is a key variable in the formation of cirrus clouds and contrails. This study shows that the properties of the probability density function of RHi differ between the tropics and higher latitudes. In line with RHi and temperature variability, aircraft are likely to produce more contrails with bioethanol and liquid hydrogen as fuel. The impact of this fuel change decreases with decreasing pressure levels but increases from high latitudes to the tropics.
Zane Dedekind, Ulrike Proske, Sylvaine Ferrachat, Ulrike Lohmann, and David Neubauer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5389–5404, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5389-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5389-2024, 2024
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Ice particles precipitating into lower clouds from an upper cloud, the seeder–feeder process, can enhance precipitation. A numerical modeling study conducted in the Swiss Alps found that 48 % of observed clouds were overlapping, with the seeder–feeder process occurring in 10 % of these clouds. Inhibiting the seeder–feeder process reduced the surface precipitation and ice particle growth rates, which were further reduced when additional ice multiplication processes were included in the model.
Liine Heikkinen, Daniel G. Partridge, Sara Blichner, Wei Huang, Rahul Ranjan, Paul Bowen, Emanuele Tovazzi, Tuukka Petäjä, Claudia Mohr, and Ilona Riipinen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5117–5147, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5117-2024, 2024
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The organic vapor condensation with water vapor (co-condensation) in rising air below clouds is modeled in this work over the boreal forest because the forest air is rich in organic vapors. We show that the number of cloud droplets can increase by 20 % if considering co-condensation. The enhancements are even larger if the air contains many small, naturally produced aerosol particles. Such conditions are most frequently met in spring in the boreal forest.
Kevin Wolf, Nicolas Bellouin, and Olivier Boucher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5009–5024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5009-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5009-2024, 2024
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The contrail formation potential and its tempo-spatial distribution are estimated for the North Atlantic flight corridor. Meteorological conditions of temperature and relative humidity are taken from the ERA5 re-analysis and IAGOS. Based on IAGOS flight tracks, crossing length, size, orientation, frequency of occurrence, and overlap of persistent contrail formation areas are determined. The presented conclusions might provide a guide for statistical flight track optimization to reduce contrails.
Lucas J. Sterzinger and Adele L. Igel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3529–3540, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3529-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3529-2024, 2024
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Using idealized large eddy simulations, we find that clouds forming in the Arctic in environments with low concentrations of aerosol particles may be sustained by mixing in new particles through the cloud top. Observations show that higher concentrations of these particles regularly exist above cloud top in concentrations that are sufficient to promote this sustenance.
Xiaoran Guo, Jianping Guo, Tianmeng Chen, Ning Li, Fan Zhang, and Yuping Sun
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-707, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-707, 2024
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The prediction of downhill thunderstorm (DS) remains elusive due to the lack of profiling observations. Here we propose a novel objective method to identify the DS event and its evolutions, based on which enhance and dissipated DS are discriminated. The radar wind profiler (RWP) mesonet in Beijing is used to derive areal divergence and vertical velocity, which are used to explore the DS ambient environment. These dynamic variables from RWP help explain the spatio-temporal evolution of DS.
Sina Maria Hofer, Klaus Martin Gierens, and Susanne Rohs
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-385, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-385, 2024
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We try to improve the forecast of ice supersaturation and potential persistent contrails by using data of dynamical quantities in addition to temperature and relative humidity in a modern kind of regression models. Although the results are improved, they are not good enough for flight routing. The origin of the problem is the strong overlap of probability densities conditioned on cases with and without ISSR in the important range of 70–100 %.
Andreas Bier, Simon Unterstrasser, Josef Zink, Dennis Hillenbrand, Tina Jurkat-Witschas, and Annemarie Lottermoser
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2319–2344, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2319-2024, 2024
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Using hydrogen as aviation fuel affects contrails' climate impact. We study contrail formation behind aircraft with H2 combustion. Due to the absence of soot emissions, contrail ice crystals are assumed to form only on ambient particles mixed into the plume. The ice crystal number, which strongly varies with temperature and aerosol number density, is decreased by more than 80 %–90 % compared to kerosene contrails. However H2 contrails can form at lower altitudes due to higher H2O emissions.
Prasanth Prabhakaran, Fabian Hoffmann, and Graham Feingold
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1919–1937, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1919-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1919-2024, 2024
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In this study, we explore the impact of deliberate aerosol perturbation in the northeast Pacific region using large-eddy simulations. Our results show that cloud reflectivity is sensitive to the aerosol sprayer arrangement in the pristine system, whereas in the polluted system it is largely proportional to the total number of aerosol particles injected. These insights would aid in assessing the efficiency of various aerosol injection strategies for climate intervention applications.
Thomas D. DeWitt and Timothy J. Garrett
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-67, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-67, 2024
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There is considerable disagreement on mathematical parameters that describe the numbers of clouds of different sizes, as well as the size of the largest clouds. Both are key defining characteristics of the Earth's atmosphere. A previous study provided an incorrect explanation for the disagreement. Instead, the disagreements may be explained by prior studies not properly accounting for the size of their measurement domain. We offer recommendations for how the domain size can be accounted for.
Lisa Bock and Axel Lauer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1587–1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1587-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1587-2024, 2024
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Climate model simulations still show a large range of effective climate sensitivity (ECS) with high uncertainties. An important contribution to ECS is cloud climate feedback. We investigate the representation of cloud physical and radiative properties from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models grouped by ECS. We compare the simulated cloud properties of today’s climate from three ECS groups and quantify how the projected changes in cloud properties and cloud radiative effects differ.
Sarah Wilson Kemsley, Paulo Ceppi, Hendrik Andersen, Jan Cermak, Philip Stier, and Peer Nowack
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-226, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-226, 2024
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Aiming to inform parameter selection for future observational constraint analyses, we incorporate five candidate meteorological drivers specifically targeting high clouds, into a cloud controlling factor framework within a range of spatial domain sizes. We find a discrepancy between optimal domain size for predicting local and globally-aggregated cloud radiative anomalies, and identify upper tropospheric static stability as an important high-cloud controlling factor.
Leonie Villiger and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 957–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-957-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-957-2024, 2024
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Three numerical simulations performed with an isotope-enabled weather forecast model are used to investigate the cloud–circulation coupling between shallow trade-wind cumulus clouds and atmospheric circulations on different scales. It is shown that stable water isotopes near cloud base in the tropics reflect (1) the diel cycle of the atmospheric circulation, which drives the formation and dissipation of clouds, and (2) changes in the large-scale circulation over the North Atlantic.
Renaud Falga and Chien Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 631–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-631-2024, 2024
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The impact of urban land use on regional meteorology and rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon has been assessed in this study. Using a cloud-resolving model centered around Kolkata, we have shown that the urban heat island effect led to a rainfall enhancement via the amplification of convective activity, especially during the night. Furthermore, the results demonstrated that the kinetic effect of the city induced the initiation of a nighttime storm.
Ye Liu, Yun Qian, Larry K. Berg, Zhe Feng, Jianfeng Li, Jingyi Chen, and Zhao Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-112, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-112, 2024
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Various weather conditions influence different intense rains in southeastern Texas. MCSs contribute to both average and extreme rainfall year-round, while IDC play a role in heavy rain during summer and fall. In spring, fall, and winter, frontal weather triggers convection, while in summer, IDC is linked to both fronts and high-pressure systems, and MCSs are more associated with fronts. Front-associated convection starts around 1100 UTC, while high-pressure-related convection starts a bit later.
Shuaiqi Tang, Hailong Wang, Xiang-Yu Li, Jingyi Chen, Armin Sorooshian, Xubin Zeng, Ewan Crosbie, Kenneth L. Thornhill, Luke D. Ziemba, and Christiane Voigt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3149, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3149, 2024
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We examined marine boundary-layer clouds and their interactions with aerosols in the E3SM single-column model (SCM) for a case study. The SCM shows good agreement in simulating the clouds with high-resolution models. It reproduces the relationship between cloud droplet and aerosol particle number concentrations as produced in global models. However, the relationship between cloud liquid water and droplet number concentration are different, which warrants further investigation.
Dario Sperber and Klaus Gierens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15609–15627, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15609-2023, 2023
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A significant share of aviation's climate impact is due to persistent contrails. Avoiding their creation is a step toward sustainable air transportation. For this purpose, a reliable forecast of so-called ice-supersaturated regions is needed, which then allows one to plan aircraft routes without persistent contrails. Here, we propose a method that leads to the better prediction of ice-supersaturated regions.
Blaž Gasparini, Sylvia C. Sullivan, Adam B. Sokol, Bernd Kärcher, Eric Jensen, and Dennis L. Hartmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15413–15444, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15413-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15413-2023, 2023
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Tropical cirrus clouds are essential for climate, but our understanding of these clouds is limited due to their dependence on a wide range of small- and large-scale climate processes. In this opinion paper, we review recent advances in the study of tropical cirrus clouds, point out remaining open questions, and suggest ways to resolve them.
Jianqi Zhao, Xiaoyan Ma, Johannes Quaas, and Hailing Jia
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2858, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2858, 2023
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We explore aerosol-cloud interactions in liquid-phase clouds over eastern China and its adjacent ocean in winter based on WRF-Chem-SBM model which couples a spectral-bin cloud microphysics and online aerosol module. Our study highlights the differences in aerosol-cloud interactions between land and ocean, precipitation clouds and non-precipitation clouds, and differentiates and quantifies their underlying mechanisms.
Leonie Villiger, Marina Dütsch, Sandrine Bony, Marie Lothon, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Patrick Chazette, Pierre Coutris, Julien Delanoë, Cyrille Flamant, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Martin Werner, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14643–14672, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, 2023
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This study evaluates three numerical simulations performed with an isotope-enabled weather forecast model and investigates the coupling between shallow trade-wind cumulus clouds and atmospheric circulations on different scales. We show that the simulations reproduce key characteristics of shallow trade-wind clouds as observed during the field experiment EUREC4A and that the spatial distribution of stable-water-vapour isotopes is shaped by the overturning circulation associated with these clouds.
Lucas Reimann, Clemens Simmer, and Silke Trömel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14219–14237, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14219-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14219-2023, 2023
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Polarimetric radar observations were assimilated for the first time in a convective-scale numerical weather prediction system in Germany and their impact on short-term precipitation forecasts was evaluated. The assimilation was performed using microphysical retrievals of liquid and ice water content and yielded slightly improved deterministic 9 h precipitation forecasts for three intense summer precipitation cases with respect to the assimilation of radar reflectivity alone.
Cunbo Han, Corinna Hoose, Martin Stengel, Quentin Coopman, and Andrew Barrett
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14077–14095, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14077-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14077-2023, 2023
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Cloud phase has been found to significantly impact cloud thermodynamics and Earth’s radiation budget, and various factors influence it. This study investigates the sensitivity of the cloud-phase distribution to the ice-nucleating particle concentration and thermodynamics. Multiple simulation experiments were performed using the ICON model at the convection-permitting resolution of 1.2 km. Simulation results were compared to two different retrieval products based on SEVIRI measurements.
Yun Lin, Yuan Wang, Jen-Shan Hsieh, Jonathan H. Jiang, Qiong Su, Lijun Zhao, Michael Lavallee, and Renyi Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13835–13852, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13835-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13835-2023, 2023
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Tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause catastrophic damage to coastal regions. We used a numerical model that explicitly simulates aerosol–cloud interaction and atmosphere–ocean coupling. We show that aerosols and ocean coupling work together to make TC storms bigger but weaker. Moreover, TCs in polluted air have more rainfall and higher sea levels, leading to more severe storm surges and flooding. Our research highlights the roles of aerosols and ocean-coupling feedbacks in TC hazard assessment.
Adam C. Varble, Adele L. Igel, Hugh Morrison, Wojciech W. Grabowski, and Zachary J. Lebo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13791–13808, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13791-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13791-2023, 2023
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As atmospheric particles called aerosols increase in number, the number of droplets in clouds tends to increase, which has been theorized to increase storm intensity. We critically evaluate the evidence for this theory, showing that flaws and limitations of previous studies coupled with unaddressed cloud process complexities draw it into question. We provide recommendations for future observations and modeling to overcome current uncertainties.
Yanfeng He and Kengo Sudo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13061–13085, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13061-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13061-2023, 2023
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Lightning has big social impacts. Lightning-produced NOx (LNOx) plays a vital role in atmospheric chemistry and climate. Investigating past lightning and LNOx trends can provide essential indicators of all lightning-related phenomena. Simulations show almost flat global lightning and LNOx trends during 1960–2014. Past global warming enhances the trends positively, but increases in aerosol have the opposite effect. Moreover, global lightning decreased markedly after the Pinatubo eruption.
Hannah C. Frostenberg, André Welti, Mikael Luhr, Julien Savre, Erik S. Thomson, and Luisa Ickes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10883–10900, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10883-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10883-2023, 2023
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Observations show that ice-nucleating particle concentrations (INPCs) have a large variety and follow lognormal distributions for a given temperature. We introduce a new immersion freezing parameterization that applies this lognormal behavior. INPCs are drawn randomly from a temperature-dependent lognormal distribution. We then show that the ice content of the modeled Arctic stratocumulus cloud is highly sensitive to the probability of drawing large INPCs.
Kai-I Lin, Kao-Shen Chung, Sheng-Hsiang Wang, Li-Hsin Chen, Yu-Chieng Liou, Pay-Liam Lin, Wei-Yu Chang, Hsien-Jung Chiu, and Yi-Hui Chang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10423–10438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10423-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10423-2023, 2023
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This study develops a hybrid microphysics scheme to enable the complex model simulation of cloud seeding based on observational cloud condensation nuclei size distribution. Our results show that more precipitation can be developed in the scenarios seeding in the in-cloud region, and seeding over an area of tens km2 is the most efficient strategy due to the strengthening of the accretion process. Moreover, particles bigger than 0.4 μm are the main factor contributing to cloud-seeding effects.
Naifu Shao, Chunsong Lu, Xingcan Jia, Yuan Wang, Yubin Li, Yan Yin, Bin Zhu, Tianliang Zhao, Duanyang Liu, Shengjie Niu, Shuxian Fan, Shuqi Yan, and Jingjing Lv
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9873–9890, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9873-2023, 2023
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Fog is an important meteorological phenomenon that affects visibility. Aerosols and the planetary boundary layer (PBL) play critical roles in the fog life cycle. In this study, aerosol-induced changes in fog properties become more remarkable in the second fog (Fog2) than in the first fog (Fog1). The reason is that aerosol–cloud interaction (ACI) delays Fog1 dissipation, leading to the PBL meteorological conditions being more conducive to Fog2 formation and to stronger ACI in Fog2.
Rachel L. James, Jonathan Crosier, and Paul J. Connolly
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9099–9121, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9099-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9099-2023, 2023
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Secondary ice production (SIP) may significantly enhance the ice particle concentration in mixed-phase clouds. We present a systematic modelling study of secondary ice formation in idealised shallow convective clouds for various conditions. Our results suggest that the SIP mechanism of collisions of supercooled water drops with more massive ice particles may be a significant ice formation mechanism in shallow convective clouds outside the rime-splintering temperature range (−3 to −8 °C).
Melanie Lauer, Annette Rinke, Irina Gorodetskaya, Michael Sprenger, Mario Mech, and Susanne Crewell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8705–8726, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8705-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8705-2023, 2023
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We present a new method to analyse the influence of atmospheric rivers (ARs), cyclones, and fronts on the precipitation in the Arctic, based on two campaigns: ACLOUD (early summer 2017) and AFLUX (early spring 2019). There are differences between both campaign periods: in early summer, the precipitation is mostly related to ARs and fronts, especially when they are co-located, while in early spring, cyclones isolated from ARs and fronts contributed most to the precipitation.
Yuan Wang, Xiaojian Zheng, Xiquan Dong, Baike Xi, and Yuk L. Yung
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8591–8605, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8591-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8591-2023, 2023
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Marine boundary layer clouds remain poorly predicted in global climate models due to multiple entangled uncertainty sources. This study uses the in situ observations from a recent field campaign to constrain and evaluate cloud physics in a simplified version of a climate model. Progress and remaining issues in the cloud physics parameterizations are identified. We systematically evaluate the impacts of large-scale forcing, microphysical scheme, and aerosol concentrations on the cloud property.
Annika Oertel, Annette K. Miltenberger, Christian M. Grams, and Corinna Hoose
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8553–8581, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8553-2023, 2023
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Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are cloud- and precipitation-producing airstreams in extratropical cyclones that are important for the large-scale flow and cloud radiative forcing. We analyze cloud formation processes during WCB ascent in a two-moment microphysics scheme. Quantification of individual diabatic heating rates shows the importance of condensation, vapor deposition, rain evaporation, melting, and cloud-top radiative cooling for total heating and WCB-related potential vorticity structure.
Colin Tully, David Neubauer, Diego Villanueva, and Ulrike Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7673–7698, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7673-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7673-2023, 2023
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This study details the first attempt with a GCM to simulate a fully prognostic aerosol species specifically for cirrus climate intervention. The new approach is in line with the real-world delivery mechanism via aircraft. However, to achieve an appreciable signal from seeding, smaller particles were needed, and their mass emissions needed to be scaled by at least a factor of 100. These biases contributed to either overseeding or small and insignificant effects in response to seeding cirrus.
Ines Bulatovic, Julien Savre, Michael Tjernström, Caroline Leck, and Annica M. L. Ekman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7033–7055, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7033-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7033-2023, 2023
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We use numerical modeling with detailed cloud microphysics to investigate a low-altitude cloud system consisting of two cloud layers – a type of cloud situation which was commonly observed during the summer of 2018 in the central Arctic (north of 80° N). The model generally reproduces the observed cloud layers and the thermodynamic structure of the lower atmosphere well. The cloud system is maintained unless there are low aerosol number concentrations or high large-scale wind speeds.
Huan Liu, Ilan Koren, Orit Altaratz, and Mickaël D. Chekroun
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6559–6569, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6559-2023, 2023
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Clouds' responses to global warming contribute the largest uncertainty in climate prediction. Here, we analyze 42 years of global cloud cover in reanalysis data and show a decreasing trend over most continents and an increasing trend over the tropical and subtropical oceans. A reduction in near-surface relative humidity can explain the decreasing trend in cloud cover over land. Our results suggest potential stress on the terrestrial water cycle, associated with global warming.
Axel Seifert, Vanessa Bachmann, Florian Filipitsch, Jochen Förstner, Christian M. Grams, Gholam Ali Hoshyaripour, Julian Quinting, Anika Rohde, Heike Vogel, Annette Wagner, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6409–6430, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6409-2023, 2023
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We investigate how mineral dust can lead to the formation of cirrus clouds. Dusty cirrus clouds lead to a reduction in solar radiation at the surface and, hence, a reduced photovoltaic power generation. Current weather prediction systems are not able to predict this interaction between mineral dust and cirrus clouds. We have developed a new physical description of the formation of dusty cirrus clouds. Overall we can show a considerable improvement in the forecast quality of clouds and radiation.
Gabrielle R. Leung, Stephen M. Saleeby, G. Alexander Sokolowsky, Sean W. Freeman, and Susan C. van den Heever
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5263–5278, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5263-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5263-2023, 2023
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This study uses a suite of high-resolution simulations to explore how the concentration and type of aerosol particles impact shallow tropical clouds and the overall aerosol budget. Under more-polluted conditions, there are more aerosol particles present, but we also find that clouds are less able to remove those aerosol particles via rainout. Instead, those aerosol particles are more likely to be detrained aloft and remain in the atmosphere for further aerosol–cloud interactions.
Sisi Chen, Lulin Xue, Sarah Tessendorf, Kyoko Ikeda, Courtney Weeks, Roy Rasmussen, Melvin Kunkel, Derek Blestrud, Shaun Parkinson, Melinda Meadows, and Nick Dawson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5217–5231, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5217-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5217-2023, 2023
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The possible mechanism of effective ice growth in the cloud-top generating cells in winter orographic clouds is explored using a newly developed ultra-high-resolution cloud microphysics model. Simulations demonstrate that a high availability of moisture and liquid water is critical for producing large ice particles. Fluctuations in temperature and moisture down to millimeter scales due to cloud turbulence can substantially affect the growth history of the individual cloud particles.
Jan Chylik, Dmitry Chechin, Regis Dupuy, Birte S. Kulla, Christof Lüpkes, Stephan Mertes, Mario Mech, and Roel A. J. Neggers
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4903–4929, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4903-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4903-2023, 2023
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Arctic low-level clouds play an important role in the ongoing warming of the Arctic. Unfortunately, these clouds are not properly represented in weather forecast and climate models. This study tries to cover this gap by focusing on clouds over open water during the spring, observed by research aircraft near Svalbard. The study combines the high-resolution model with sets of observational data. The results show the importance of processes that involve both ice and the liquid water in the clouds.
Gillian Young McCusker, Jutta Vüllers, Peggy Achtert, Paul Field, Jonathan J. Day, Richard Forbes, Ruth Price, Ewan O'Connor, Michael Tjernström, John Prytherch, Ryan Neely III, and Ian M. Brooks
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4819–4847, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4819-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4819-2023, 2023
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In this study, we show that recent versions of two atmospheric models – the Unified Model and Integrated Forecasting System – overestimate Arctic cloud fraction within the lower troposphere by comparison with recent remote-sensing measurements made during the Arctic Ocean 2018 expedition. The overabundance of cloud is interlinked with the modelled thermodynamic structure, with strong negative temperature biases coincident with these overestimated cloud layers.
Matthew W. Christensen, Po-Lun Ma, Peng Wu, Adam C. Varble, Johannes Mülmenstädt, and Jerome D. Fast
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2789–2812, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2789-2023, 2023
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An increase in aerosol concentration (tiny airborne particles) is shown to suppress rainfall and increase the abundance of droplets in clouds passing over Graciosa Island in the Azores. Cloud drops remain affected by aerosol for several days across thousands of kilometers in satellite data. Simulations from an Earth system model show good agreement, but differences in the amount of cloud water and its extent remain despite modifications to model parameters that control the warm-rain process.
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Short summary
The present generation of global climate models has an insufficiently reflected short-wave radiation, especially over the Southern Ocean. This leads to an excessive heating of the ocean surface in the model, creating sea surface temperature biases and subsequent problems with atmospheric dynamics. Misrepresentation of clouds could be attributed to this radiation bias; we try to address this issue by slowing the growth rate of ice crystals and improving the supercooled liquid clouds in the model.
The present generation of global climate models has an insufficiently reflected short-wave...
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