Articles | Volume 26, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-15915-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-15915-2026
Research article
 | 
11 Nov 2026
Research article |  | 11 Nov 2026

Probabilities of detection of methane plumes by remote sensing and implications for inferred emissions distributions

Ethan Manninen, Apisada Chulakadabba, Maryann Sargent, Zhan Zhang, Harshil Kamdar, Jack Warren, Sébastien Roche, Christopher Chan Miller, Ethan Kyzivat, Joshua Benmergui, Jasna Pittman, Eleanor Walker, Jacob Bushey, Jenna Samra, Jacob Hawthorne, Bingkun Luo, Maya Nasr, Kang Sun, Jonathan Franklin, Xiong Liu, Jia Chen, and Steven Wofsy

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Cited articles

Akaike, H.: Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle, in: Breakthroughs in Statistics, Springer, New York, NY, 610–624, ISBN 978-1-4612-0919-5, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-0919-5_38, 1992. a
Ayasse, A. K., Cusworth, D. H., Howell, K., O'Neill, K., Conrad, B. M., Johnson, M. R., Heckler, J., Asner, G. P., and Duren, R.: Probability of Detection and Multi-Sensor Persistence of Methane Emissions from Coincident Airborne and Satellite Observations, Environ. Sci. Technol., 58, 21536–21544, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.4c06702, 2024. a
Brandt, A. R., Heath, G. A., and Cooley, D.: Methane Leaks from Natural Gas Systems Follow Extreme Distributions, Environ.Sci. Technol., 50, 12512–12520, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6b04303, 2016. a
Bruno, J. H., Jervis, D., Varon, D. J., and Jacob, D. J.: U-Plume: automated algorithm for plume detection and source quantification by satellite point-source imagers, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 2625–2636, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2625-2024, 2024. a, b
Chan Miller, C., Roche, S., Wilzewski, J. S., Liu, X., Chance, K., Souri, A. H., Conway, E., Luo, B., Samra, J., Hawthorne, J., Sun, K., Staebell, C., Chulakadabba, A., Sargent, M., Benmergui, J. S., Franklin, J. E., Daube, B. C., Li, Y., Laughner, J. L., Baier, B. C., Gautam, R., Omara, M., and Wofsy, S. C.: Methane retrieval from MethaneAIR using the CO2 proxy approach: a demonstration for the upcoming MethaneSAT mission, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 5429–5454, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5429-2024, 2024. a, b
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In this work, my coauthors and I interpret methane emissions observed by remote sensing systems as plumes, or point sources. We model the probability that a general imaging spectrometer will detect a plume, and apply this framework to multiple remote sensing systems. We show how two recent systems- MethanAIR and MethaneSAT- provide enough sensitivity to facility scale point sources to effectively characterize most plume emissions in the Permian Basin.
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