Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022
Review article
 | 
25 Feb 2022
Review article |  | 25 Feb 2022

Long-range prediction and the stratosphere

Adam A. Scaife, Mark P. Baldwin, Amy H. Butler, Andrew J. Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Steven C. Hardiman, Peter Haynes, Alexey Yu Karpechko, Eun-Pa Lim, Shunsuke Noguchi, Judith Perlwitz, Lorenzo Polvani, Jadwiga H. Richter, John Scinocca, Michael Sigmond, Theodore G. Shepherd, Seok-Woo Son, and David W. J. Thompson

Related authors

Understanding winter windstorm predictability over Europe
Lisa Degenhardt, Gregor C. Leckebusch, and Adam A. Scaife
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 587–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-587-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-587-2024, 2024
Short summary
Decadal re-forecasts of glacier climatic mass balance
Larissa van der Laan, Anouk Vlug, Adam A. Scaife, Fabien Maussion, and Kristian Förster
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-387,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-387, 2024
Short summary
Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, 2023
Short summary
Using large ensembles to quantify the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings and their precursors on the North Atlantic Oscillation
Philip E. Bett, Adam A. Scaife, Steven C. Hardiman, Hazel E. Thornton, Xiaocen Shen, Lin Wang, and Bo Pang
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 213–228, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023, 2023
Short summary
The impact of stratospheric aerosol intervention on the North Atlantic and Quasi-Biennial Oscillations in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G6sulfur experiment
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Adam A. Scaife, Olivier Boucher, Matthew Henry, Ben Kravitz, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2999–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, 2022
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Dynamics | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Stratosphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Quasi-biennial oscillation modulation of stratospheric water vapour in the Asian monsoon
Cristina Peña-Ortiz, Nuria Pilar Plaza, David Gallego, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5457–5478, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5457-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Crucial role of obliquely propagating gravity waves in the quasi-biennial oscillation dynamics
Young-Ha Kim, Georg Sebastian Voelker, Gergely Bölöni, Günther Zängl, and Ulrich Achatz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3297–3308, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3297-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3297-2024, 2024
Short summary
Exploring ozone variability in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere using dynamical coordinates
Luis F. Millán, Peter Hoor, Michaela I. Hegglin, Gloria L. Manney, Harald Boenisch, Paul Jeffery, Daniel Kunkel, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Hao Ye, Thierry Leblanc, and Kaley Walker
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-144,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-144, 2024
Short summary
Technical note: Multi-year changes in the Brewer–Dobson circulation from Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) methane
Ellis Remsberg
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1691–1697, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1691-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1691-2024, 2024
Short summary
Exploring the ENSO modulation of the QBO periods with GISS E2.2 models
Tiehan Zhou, Kevin J. DallaSanta, Clara Orbe, David H. Rind, Jeffrey A. Jonas, Larissa Nazarenko, Gavin A. Schmidt, and Gary Russell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 509–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-509-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-509-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Abhik, S. and Hendon, H. H.: Influence of the QBO on the MJO during coupled model multiweek forecasts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 9213–9221, 2019. 
Adams, B. J., Mann, M., and Ammann, C.: Proxy evidence for an El Niño-like response to volcanic forcing, Nature, 426, 274–278, 2003. 
Andrews, M., Knight, J., and Gray, L.: A simulated lagged response of the North Atlantic Oscillation to the solar cycle over the period 1960–2009, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, L054022, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054022, 2015. 
Agnet, J. G., Rozanov, E. V., Muthers, S., Peter, T., Brönnimann, S., Arfeuille, F., Beer, J., Shapiro, A. I., Raible, C. C., Steinhilber, F., and Schmutz, W. K.: Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4420–4425, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50806, 2003. 
Anstey, J. A. and Shepherd, T. G.: High-latitude influence of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 1–21, 2014.