Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
| 
25 Feb 2022
Review article |
| 25 Feb 2022
Long-range prediction and the stratosphere
Adam A. Scaife
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter, UK
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Mark P. Baldwin
Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Amy H. Butler
NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (CSL), Boulder, CO, USA
Andrew J. Charlton-Perez
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Chaim I. Garfinkel
Fredy & Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew
University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
Steven C. Hardiman
Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter, UK
Peter Haynes
Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Alexey Yu Karpechko
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Eun-Pa Lim
Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Shunsuke Noguchi
Research Center for Environmental Modeling and Application, Japan
Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency,
Tsukuba, Japan
Judith Perlwitz
NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL), Boulder, CO, USA
Lorenzo Polvani
Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
Jadwiga H. Richter
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
John Scinocca
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and
Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Michael Sigmond
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and
Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Theodore G. Shepherd
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Seok-Woo Son
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National
University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
David W. J. Thompson
Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort
Collins, CO, USA
Related authors
Lisa Degenhardt, Gregor C. Leckebusch, and Adam A. Scaife
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2023-12, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2023-12, 2023
Preprint under review for WCD
Short summary
Short summary
This study is investigating how dynamical factors that are known to influence cyclone or windstorm development and strengthening also influence the seasonal forecast skill of severe winter windstorms. This study shows which factors are well represented in the seasonal forecast model, GloSea5, and which might would need improvement to might improve the forecast of severe winter windstorms.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philip E. Bett, Adam A. Scaife, Steven C. Hardiman, Hazel E. Thornton, Xiaocen Shen, Lin Wang, and Bo Pang
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 213–228, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sudden-stratospheric-warming (SSW) events can severely affect the subsequent weather at the surface. We use a large ensemble of climate model hindcasts to investigate features of the climate that make strong impacts more likely through negative NAO conditions. This allows a more robust assessment than using observations alone. Air pressure over the Arctic prior to an SSW and the zonal-mean zonal wind in the lower stratosphere have the strongest relationship with the subsequent NAO response.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-22, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-22, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. Largest gusts are found across NW Europe and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Adam A. Scaife, Olivier Boucher, Matthew Henry, Ben Kravitz, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2999–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations by six Earth-system models of geoengineering by introducing sulfuric acid aerosols into the tropical stratosphere are compared. A robust impact on the northern wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation is found, exacerbating precipitation reduction over parts of southern Europe. In contrast, the models show no consistency with regard to impacts on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, although results do indicate a risk that the oscillation could become locked into a permanent westerly phase.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Seán Donegan, Conor Murphy, Shaun Harrigan, Ciaran Broderick, Dáire Foran Quinn, Saeed Golian, Jeff Knight, Tom Matthews, Christel Prudhomme, Adam A. Scaife, Nicky Stringer, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4159–4183, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We benchmarked the skill of ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) for a diverse sample of 46 Irish catchments. We found that ESP is skilful in the majority of catchments up to several months ahead. However, the level of skill was strongly dependent on lead time, initialisation month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. We also conditioned ESP with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and show that improvements in forecast skill, reliability, and discrimination are possible.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Neal Butchart, James A. Anstey, Kevin Hamilton, Scott Osprey, Charles McLandress, Andrew C. Bushell, Yoshio Kawatani, Young-Ha Kim, Francois Lott, John Scinocca, Timothy N. Stockdale, Martin Andrews, Omar Bellprat, Peter Braesicke, Chiara Cagnazzo, Chih-Chieh Chen, Hye-Yeong Chun, Mikhail Dobrynin, Rolando R. Garcia, Javier Garcia-Serrano, Lesley J. Gray, Laura Holt, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Hiroaki Naoe, Holger Pohlmann, Jadwiga H. Richter, Adam A. Scaife, Verena Schenzinger, Federico Serva, Stefan Versick, Shingo Watanabe, Kohei Yoshida, and Seiji Yukimoto
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1009–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1009-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1009-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper documents the numerical experiments to be used in phase 1 of the Stratosphere–troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi), which was set up to improve the representation of the QBO and tropical stratospheric variability in global climate models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kristian Förster, Florian Hanzer, Elena Stoll, Adam A. Scaife, Craig MacLachlan, Johannes Schöber, Matthias Huttenlau, Stefan Achleitner, and Ulrich Strasser
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1157–1173, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1157-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1157-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents predictability analyses of snow accumulation for the upcoming winter season. The results achieved using two coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models and a water balance model show that the tendency of snow water equivalent anomalies (i.e. the sign of anomalies) is correctly predicted in up to 11 of 13 years. The results suggest that some seasonal predictions may be capable of predicting tendencies of hydrological model storages in parts of Europe.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Victoria A. Bell, Helen N. Davies, Alison L. Kay, Anca Brookshaw, and Adam A. Scaife
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4681–4691, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4681-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4681-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The research presented here provides the first evaluation of the skill of a seasonal hydrological forecast for the UK. The forecast scheme combines rainfall forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 forecast system with a national-scale hydrological model to provide estimates of river flows 1 to 3 months ahead. The skill in the combined model is assessed for different seasons and regions of Britain, and the analysis indicates that Autumn/Winter flows can be forecast with reasonable confidence.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katja Matthes, Bernd Funke, Monika E. Andersson, Luke Barnard, Jürg Beer, Paul Charbonneau, Mark A. Clilverd, Thierry Dudok de Wit, Margit Haberreiter, Aaron Hendry, Charles H. Jackman, Matthieu Kretzschmar, Tim Kruschke, Markus Kunze, Ulrike Langematz, Daniel R. Marsh, Amanda C. Maycock, Stergios Misios, Craig J. Rodger, Adam A. Scaife, Annika Seppälä, Ming Shangguan, Miriam Sinnhuber, Kleareti Tourpali, Ilya Usoskin, Max van de Kamp, Pekka T. Verronen, and Stefan Versick
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2247–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The solar forcing dataset for climate model experiments performed for the upcoming IPCC report is described. This dataset provides the radiative and particle input of solar variability on a daily basis from 1850 through to 2300. With this dataset a better representation of natural climate variability with respect to the output of the Sun is provided which provides the most sophisticated and comprehensive respresentation of solar variability that has been used in climate model simulations so far.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jason Neil Steven Cole, Knut von Salzen, Jiangnan Li, John Scinocca, David Plummer, Vivek Arora, Norman McFarlane, Michael Lazare, Murray MacKay, and Diana Verseghy
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5427–5448, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5427-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Canadian Atmospheric Model version 5 (CanAM5) is used to simulate on a global scale the climate of Earth's atmosphere, land, and lakes. We document changes to the physics in CanAM5 since the last major version of the model (CanAM4) and evaluate the climate simulated relative to observations and CanAM4. The climate simulated by CanAM5 is similar to CanAM4, but there are improvements, including better simulation of temperature and precipitation over the Amazon and better simulation of cloud.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Gabriel Chiodo, Marina Friedel, Svenja Seeber, Daniela Domeisen, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, and Franziska Zilker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10451–10472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric ozone protects the biosphere from harmful UV radiation. Anthropogenic activity has led to a reduction in the ozone layer in the recent past, but thanks to the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, the ozone layer is projected to recover. In this study, we show that projected future changes in Arctic ozone abundances during springtime will influence stratospheric climate and thereby actively modulate large-scale circulation changes in the Northern Hemisphere.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kelsey J. Mulder, Louis Williams, Matthew Lickiss, Alison Black, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Rachel McCloy, and Eugene McSorley
Geosci. Commun., 6, 97–110, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-6-97-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-6-97-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is vital that uncertainty in environmental forecasting is graphically presented to enable people to use and interpret it correctly. Using novel eye-tracking methods, we show that where people look and the decisions they make are both strongly influenced by construction of forecast representations common in presentations of environmental data. This suggests that forecasters should construct their presentations carefully so that they help people to extract important information more easily.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Louis Williams, Kelsey J. Mulder, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Matthew Lickiss, Alison Black, Rachel McCloy, Eugene McSorley, and Joe Young
Geosci. Commun., 6, 111–123, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-6-111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-6-111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
When constructing graphical environmental forecasts involving uncertainty, it is important to consider the background and expertise of end-users. Using novel eye-tracking methods, we show that where people look and the decisions they make are both strongly influenced by prior expertise and the graphical construction of forecast representations common in presentations of environmental data. We suggest that forecasters should construct their presentations carefully, bearing these factors in mind.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Michael K. Schutte, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and Jacopo Riboldi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1877, 2023
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
The winter circulation in the stratosphere, a layer of the Earth’s atmosphere between 10 and 50 km height, is tightly linked to the circulation in the lower atmosphere determining our daily weather. This interconnection happens in the form of waves propagating in and between these two layers. Here we use space-time spectral analysis to show that disruptions and enhancements of the stratospheric circulation modify the shape and propagation of waves in both layers.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Romain Pilon and Daniela Domeisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1184, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1184, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces a new method for detecting atmospheric cloud bands to identify long convective cloud bands that extend from the tropics to the mid-latitudes. The algorithm allows for easy use and enables researchers to study the life cycle and climatology of cloud bands and associated rainfalls. This method provides insights into the large-scale processes involved in cloud band formation and their connections between different regions, as well as differences across ocean basins.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tereza Uhlíková, Timo Vihma, Alexey Yu Karpechko, and Petteri Juha Uotila
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1131, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1131, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A prerequisite for understanding the local, regional, and hemispherical impacts of Arctic sea-ice decline on the atmosphere is to quantify the effects of sea-ice concentration (SIC) on the sensible and latent heat flux in the Arctic. We analyse these effects utilising four data sets called atmospheric reanalyses, and we evaluate uncertainties in these effects arising from inter-reanalysis differences in SIC and in the sensitivity of the latent and sensible heat flux to SIC.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lisa Degenhardt, Gregor C. Leckebusch, and Adam A. Scaife
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2023-12, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2023-12, 2023
Preprint under review for WCD
Short summary
Short summary
This study is investigating how dynamical factors that are known to influence cyclone or windstorm development and strengthening also influence the seasonal forecast skill of severe winter windstorms. This study shows which factors are well represented in the seasonal forecast model, GloSea5, and which might would need improvement to might improve the forecast of severe winter windstorms.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jake W. Casselman, Joke F. Lübbecke, Tobias Bayr, Wenjuan Huo, Sebastian Wahl, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 471–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-471-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-471-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remote effects on the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), but the connections' nonlinearity (strength of response to an increasing ENSO signal) is not always well represented in models. Using the Community Earth System Model version 1 – Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Mode (CESM-WACCM) and the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure version 1, we find that the TNA responds linearly to extreme El Niño but nonlinearly to extreme La Niña for CESM-WACCM.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Flossie Brown, Lauren Marshall, Peter H. Haynes, Rolando R. Garcia, Thomas Birner, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5335–5353, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5335-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Large-magnitude volcanic eruptions have the potential to alter large-scale circulation patterns, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO is an oscillation of the tropical stratospheric zonal winds between easterly and westerly directions. Using a climate model, we show that large-magnitude eruptions can delay the progression of the QBO, with a much longer delay when the shear is easterly than when it is westerly. Such delays may affect weather and transport of atmospheric gases.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-74, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-74, 2023
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The UK has experienced recurring periods of hydrological droughts, including the drought declared in summer 2022. We investigate the drivers of winter rainfall in the East Anglia region using a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts. We produced plausible trajectories of winter weather based on their atmospheric circulation patterns and showed how storylines of the 2022 drought can be created in autumn 2022 to explore plausible worst cases over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Dillon Elsbury, Amy H. Butler, John R. Albers, Melissa L. Breeden, and Andrew O'Neil Langford
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5101–5117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5101-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
One of the global hotspots where stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) of ozone takes place is over Pacific North America (PNA). However, we do not know how or if STT over PNA will change in response to climate change. Using climate model experiments forced with
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
worst-casescenario Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change, we find that changes in net chemical production and transport of ozone in the lower stratosphere increase STT of ozone over PNA in the future.
Raphaël de Fondeville, Zheng Wu, Enikő Székely, Guillaume Obozinski, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 287–307, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-287-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a fully data-driven, interpretable, and computationally scalable framework to characterize sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), extract statistically significant precursors, and produce machine learning (ML) forecasts. By successfully leveraging the long-lasting impact of SSWs, the ML predictions outperform sub-seasonal numerical forecasts for lead times beyond 25 d. Post-processing numerical predictions using their ML counterparts yields a performance increase of up to 20 %.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Michael Sigmond, James Anstey, Vivek Arora, Ruth Digby, Nathan Gillett, Viatcheslav Kharin, William Merryfield, Catherine Reader, John Scinocca, Neil Swart, John Virgin, Carsten Abraham, Jason Cole, Nicolas Lambert, Woo-Sung Lee, Yongxiao Liang, Elizaveta Malinina, Landon Rieger, Knut von Salzen, Christian Seiler, Clint Seinen, Andrew Shao, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Libo Wang, and Duo Yang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-52, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-52, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new activity, which aims to organize the analysis of biases in the Canadian Earth System model (CanESM) in a systematic manner. Results of the first phase of this ‘Analysis for Development’ (A4D) activity includes a new CanESM version, CanESM5.1, which features substantial improvements regarding the simulation of dust and stratospheric temperatures, a second CanESM5.1 variant with reduced climate sensitivity, and insights into potential avenues to reduce various other model biases.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Khalil Karami, Rolando Garcia, Christoph Jacobi, Jadwiga H. Richter, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3799–3818, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3799-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3799-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Alongside mitigation and adaptation efforts, stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) is increasingly considered a third pillar to combat dangerous climate change. We investigate the teleconnection between the quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere and the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex under a warmer climate and an SAI scenario. We show that the Holton–Tan relationship weakens under both scenarios and discuss the physical mechanisms responsible for such changes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
David Martin Straus, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Sarah-Jane Lock, Franco Molteni, and Priyanka Yadav
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-493, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The global response to the Madden Julian Oscillation is potentially predictable. Yet variability in diabatic heating is present even within fixed phases of the MJO. Experiments with a global model probe the limitations imposed by this uncertainty. The large-scale tropical heating is predictable for 24 to 28 days, yet the associated Rossby Wave source that links the heating to the mid-latitude circulation is predictable for 14 to 19 days. This limitation has not been recognized in prior work.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amy H. Butler, Daniele Visioni, Yan Zhang, Ben Kravitz, and Douglas G. MacMartin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-495, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-495, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use a state-of-the-art earth system model and a set of stratospheric aerosol injection strategies achieving the same level of global mean surface cooling through different combinations of location and/or timing of the injection. We demonstrate that the choice of SAI strategy can lead to contrasting impacts on stratospheric and tropospheric temperatures, circulation and chemistry (including stratospheric ozone), thereby leading to different impacts on regional surface climate.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philip E. Bett, Adam A. Scaife, Steven C. Hardiman, Hazel E. Thornton, Xiaocen Shen, Lin Wang, and Bo Pang
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 213–228, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sudden-stratospheric-warming (SSW) events can severely affect the subsequent weather at the surface. We use a large ensemble of climate model hindcasts to investigate features of the climate that make strong impacts more likely through negative NAO conditions. This allows a more robust assessment than using observations alone. Air pressure over the Arctic prior to an SSW and the zonal-mean zonal wind in the lower stratosphere have the strongest relationship with the subsequent NAO response.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-22, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-22, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. Largest gusts are found across NW Europe and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-205, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-205, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses climate projections from 30 climate models and a climate-risk assessment model to obtain projections of future windstorm damage over Europe. We find the damage projections to be highly uncertain and dominated by climate model uncertainty. We find potential increases in windstorm damage over western, and northern-central Europe, and a decrease over the rest of Europe. Our findings demonstrate the importance of climate model uncertainty for the projections of windstorms in Europe.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ewa M. Bednarz, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, James M. Haywood, Jadwiga Richter, Douglas G. MacMartin, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 687–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Building on Part 1 of this two-part study, we demonstrate the role of biases in climatological circulation and specific aspects of model microphysics in driving the differences in simulated sulfate distributions amongst three Earth system models. We then characterize the simulated changes in stratospheric and free-tropospheric temperatures, ozone, water vapor, and large-scale circulation, elucidating the role of the above aspects in the surface responses discussed in Part 1.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Wolfgang Wicker, Inna Polichtchouk, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 81–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-81-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-81-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sudden stratospheric warmings are extreme weather events where the winter polar stratosphere warms by about 25 K. An improved representation of small-scale gravity waves in sub-seasonal prediction models can reduce forecast errors since their impact on the large-scale circulation is predictable multiple weeks ahead. After a sudden stratospheric warming, vertically propagating gravity waves break at a lower altitude than usual, which strengthens the long-lasting positive temperature anomalies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 39–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurately predicting the response of the midlatitude jet stream to climate change is very important, but models show a variety of possible scenarios. Previous work identified a relationship between climatological jet latitude and future jet shift in the southern hemispheric winter. We show that the relationship does not hold in separate sectors and propose that zonal asymmetries are the ultimate cause in the zonal mean. This questions the usefulness of the relationship.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
John T. Fasullo and Jadwiga H. Richter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 163–182, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-163-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-163-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The continued high levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions increase the likelihood that key climate warming thresholds will be exceeded in the coming decades. Here we examine a recently proposed geoengineering approach using two recently produced climate model experiments. We find the associated latitudinal distribution of aerosol mass to exhibit substantial uncertainty, suggesting the need for significant flexibility in the location and amount of aerosol delivery, if implemented.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Dominik Büeler, C. Ole Wulff, Michael Sprenger, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-58, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-58, 2022
Preprint under review for WCD
Short summary
Short summary
The stratosphere is a layer of Earth's atmosphere found above the weather systems. Changes in the stratosphere can affect the winds and the storm tracks in the North Atlantic region for a relatively long time, lasting for several weeks and even months. We show that the stratosphere can be important for weather forecasts beyond 1 week, but more work is needed to improve the accuracy of these forecasts for 3–4 weeks.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, David A. Bailey, Nan Rosenbloom, Brian Dobbins, Walker R. Lee, Mari Tye, and Jean-Francois Lamarque
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8221–8243, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Solar climate intervention using stratospheric aerosol injection is a proposed method of reducing global mean temperatures to reduce the worst consequences of climate change. We present a new modeling protocol aimed at simulating a plausible deployment of stratospheric aerosol injection and reproducibility of simulations using other Earth system models: Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar climate intervention on the Earth system with stratospheric aerosol injection (ARISE-SAI).
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marina Friedel, Gabriel Chiodo, Andrea Stenke, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13997–14017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13997-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13997-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In spring, winds the Arctic stratosphere change direction – an event called final stratospheric warming (FSW). Here, we examine whether the interannual variability in Arctic stratospheric ozone impacts the timing of the FSW. We find that Arctic ozone shifts the FSW to earlier and later dates in years with high and low ozone via the absorption of UV light. The modulation of the FSW by ozone has consequences for surface climate in ozone-rich years, which may result in better seasonal predictions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nora Bergner, Marina Friedel, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Darryn Waugh, and Gabriel Chiodo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13915–13934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Polar vortex extremes, particularly situations with an unusually weak cyclonic circulation in the stratosphere, can influence the surface climate in the spring–summer time in the Southern Hemisphere. Using chemistry-climate models and observations, we evaluate the robustness of the surface impacts. While models capture the general surface response, they do not show the observed climate patterns in midlatitude regions, which we trace back to biases in the models' circulations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
John R. Albers, Amy H. Butler, Andrew O. Langford, Dillon Elsbury, and Melissa L. Breeden
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13035–13048, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone transported from the stratosphere contributes to background ozone concentrations in the free troposphere and to surface ozone exceedance events that affect human health. The physical processes whereby the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates North American stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone transport during spring are documented, and the usefulness of ENSO for predicting ozone events that may cause exceedances in surface air quality standards are assessed.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jake W. Casselman, Bernat Jiménez-Esteve, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1077–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1077-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1077-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using an atmospheric general circulation model, we analyze how the tropical North Atlantic influences the El Niño–Southern Oscillation connection towards the North Atlantic European region. We also focus on the lesser-known boreal spring and summer response following an El Niño–Southern Oscillation event. Our results show that altered tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures may cause different responses over the Caribbean region, consequently influencing the North Atlantic European region.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stephen G. Yeager, Nan Rosenbloom, Anne A. Glanville, Xian Wu, Isla Simpson, Hui Li, Maria J. Molina, Kristen Krumhardt, Samuel Mogen, Keith Lindsay, Danica Lombardozzi, Will Wieder, Who M. Kim, Jadwiga H. Richter, Matthew Long, Gokhan Danabasoglu, David Bailey, Marika Holland, Nicole Lovenduski, Warren G. Strand, and Teagan King
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6451–6493, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth system changes over a range of time and space scales, and some of these changes are predictable in advance. Short-term weather forecasts are most familiar, but recent work has shown that it is possible to generate useful predictions several seasons or even a decade in advance. This study focuses on predictions over intermediate timescales (up to 24 months in advance) and shows that there is promising potential to forecast a variety of changes in the natural environment.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mari R. Tye, Katherine Dagon, Maria J. Molina, Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, and Simone Tilmes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1233–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1233-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examined the potential effect of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on extreme temperature and precipitation. SAI may cause daytime temperatures to cool but nighttime to warm. Daytime cooling may occur in all seasons across the globe, with the largest decreases in summer. In contrast, nighttime warming may be greatest at high latitudes in winter. SAI may reduce the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall. The combined changes may exacerbate drying over parts of the global south.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Zachary D. Lawrence, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzagüena, David Barriopedro, Amy H. Butler, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Javier García-Serrano, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Neil P. Hindley, Liwei Jia, Martin Jucker, Alexey Y. Karpechko, Hera Kim, Andrea L. Lang, Simon H. Lee, Pu Lin, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Judith Perlwitz, Inna Polichtchouk, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Irina Statnaia, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 977–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Forecast models that are used to predict weather often struggle to represent the Earth’s stratosphere. This may impact their ability to predict surface weather weeks in advance, on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales. We use data from many S2S forecast systems to characterize and compare the stratospheric biases present in such forecast models. These models have many similar stratospheric biases, but they tend to be worse in systems with low model tops located within the stratosphere.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Rachel Wai-Ying Wu, Zheng Wu, and Daniela I.V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 755–776, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-755-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-755-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of the stratospheric polar vortex can enhance surface weather predictability. Stratospheric events themselves are less predictable, with strong inter-event differences. We assess the predictability of stratospheric acceleration and deceleration events in a sub-seasonal prediction system, finding that the predictability of events is largely dependent on event magnitude, while extreme drivers of deceleration events are not fully represented in the model.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kevin DallaSanta and Lorenzo M. Polvani
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8843–8862, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8843-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8843-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic eruptions cool the earth by reducing the amount of sunlight reaching the surface. Paradoxically, it has been suggested that they may also warm the surface, but the evidence for this is scant. Here, we show that a small warming can be seen in a climate model for large-enough eruptions. However, even for eruptions much larger than those that have occurred in the past two millennia, post-eruption winters over Eurasia are indistinguishable from those occurring without a prior eruption.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Peter Hitchcock, Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Tim Stockdale, James Anstey, Dann Mitchell, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Tongwen Wu, Yixiong Lu, Daniele Mastrangelo, Piero Malguzzi, Hai Lin, Ryan Muncaster, Bill Merryfield, Michael Sigmond, Baoqiang Xiang, Liwei Jia, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Jiyoung Oh, Damien Specq, Isla R. Simpson, Jadwiga H. Richter, Cory Barton, Jeff Knight, Eun-Pa Lim, and Harry Hendon
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5073–5092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes an experimental protocol focused on sudden stratospheric warmings to be carried out by subseasonal forecast modeling centers. These will allow for inter-model comparisons of these major disruptions to the stratospheric polar vortex and their impacts on the near-surface flow. The protocol will lead to new insights into the contribution of the stratosphere to subseasonal forecast skill and new approaches to the dynamical attribution of extreme events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Chen Schwartz, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Priyanka Yadav, Wen Chen, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 679–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-679-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Eleven operational forecast models that run on subseasonal timescales (up to 2 months) are examined to assess errors in their simulated large-scale stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere winter. We found that models with a more finely resolved stratosphere generally do better in simulating the waves in both the stratosphere (10–50 km) and troposphere below. Moreover, a connection exists between errors in simulated time-mean convection in tropical regions and errors in the simulated waves.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 645–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-645-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-645-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how the mid-latitude jet stream will respond to a changing climate is highly important. Unfortunately, climate models predict a wide variety of possible responses. Theoretical frameworks can link an internal jet variability timescale to its response. However, we show that stratospheric influence approximately doubles the internal timescale, inflating predicted responses. We demonstrate an approach to account for the stratospheric influence and recover correct response predictions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Sean Davis, and Antara Banerjee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7523–7538, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7523-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric water vapor is important for Earth's overall greenhouse effect and for ozone chemistry; however the factors governing its variability on interannual timescales are not fully known, and previous modeling studies have indicated that models struggle to capture this interannual variability. We demonstrate that nonlinear interactions are important for determining overall water vapor concentrations and also that models have improved in their ability to capture these connections.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Shima Bahramvash Shams, Von P. Walden, James W. Hannigan, William J. Randel, Irina V. Petropavlovskikh, Amy H. Butler, and Alvaro de la Cámara
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5435–5458, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5435-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale atmospheric circulation has a strong influence on ozone in the Arctic, and certain anomalous dynamical events, such as sudden stratospheric warmings, cause dramatic alterations of the large-scale circulation. A reanalysis model is evaluated and then used to investigate the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings on mid-atmospheric ozone. Results show that the position of the cold jet stream over the Arctic before these events influences the variability of ozone.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Wilson C. H. Chan, Theodore G. Shepherd, Katie Facer-Childs, Geoff Darch, and Nigel W. Arnell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1755–1777, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1755-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1755-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We select the 2010–2012 UK drought and investigate an alternative unfolding of the drought from changes to its attributes. We created storylines of drier preconditions, alternative seasonal contributions, a third dry winter, and climate change. Storylines of the 2010–2012 drought show alternative situations that could have resulted in worse conditions than observed. Event-based storylines exploring plausible situations are used that may lead to high impacts and help stress test existing systems.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz, Alessio Bozzo, Nicholas Byrne, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Michail Diamantakis, Johannes Flemming, Lesley J. Gray, Robin J. Hogan, Luke Jones, Linus Magnusson, Inna Polichtchouk, Theodore G. Shepherd, Nils Wedi, and Antje Weisheimer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4277–4302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The stratosphere is emerging as one of the keys to improve tropospheric weather and climate predictions. This study provides evidence of the role the stratospheric ozone layer plays in improving weather predictions at different timescales. Using a new ozone modelling approach suitable for high-resolution global models that provide operational forecasts from days to seasons, we find significant improvements in stratospheric meteorological fields and stratosphere–troposphere coupling.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Seungmok Paik, Seung-Ki Min, Seok-Woo Son, Soon-Il An, Jong-Seong Kug, and Sang-Wook Yeh
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-187, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-187, 2022
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates Earth’s surface climate response to volcanic eruptions at different latitudes. By analyzing last millennium ensemble simulations of a coupled climate model, we have identified physical processes associated with the diverse impacts of volcanic eruption latitudes, focusing on the tropical ocean surface warming and the stratospheric polar vortex intensification. Our results provide important global implications for atmospheric responses to future volcanic aerosols.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Adam A. Scaife, Olivier Boucher, Matthew Henry, Ben Kravitz, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2999–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations by six Earth-system models of geoengineering by introducing sulfuric acid aerosols into the tropical stratosphere are compared. A robust impact on the northern wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation is found, exacerbating precipitation reduction over parts of southern Europe. In contrast, the models show no consistency with regard to impacts on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, although results do indicate a risk that the oscillation could become locked into a permanent westerly phase.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Daniele Visioni, Simone Tilmes, Charles Bardeen, Michael Mills, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, and Jadwiga H. Richter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1739–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1739-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1739-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols are simulated in a simplified way in climate models: in the model analyzed here, they are represented in every grid as described by three simple logarithmic distributions, mixing all different species together. The size can evolve when new particles are formed, particles merge together to create a larger one or particles are deposited to the surface. This approximation normally works fairly well. Here we show however that when large amounts of sulfate are simulated, there are problems.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Juho M. Koskentausta, and Alexey Yu. Karpechko
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 45–58, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-45-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-45-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño events are known to effect the variability of the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex. The observed relationship differs from what is seen in climate models. Climate models have errors in their average winds and temperature, and in this work we artificially reduce those errors to see how that changes the communication of El Niño events to the polar stratosphere. We find reducing errors improves stratospheric variability, but does not explain the differences with observations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nicholas L. Tyrrell and Alexey Yu. Karpechko
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 913–925, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-913-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-913-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (El Niño) affect the global climate. The Pacific-to-Europe connection relies on interactions of large atmospheric waves with winds and surface pressure. We looked at how mean errors in a climate model affect its ability to simulate the Pacific-to-Europe connection. We found that even large errors in the seasonal winds did not affect the response of the model to an El Niño event, which is good news for seasonal forecasts which rely on these connections.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marta Abalos, Natalia Calvo, Samuel Benito-Barca, Hella Garny, Steven C. Hardiman, Pu Lin, Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, Rolando Garcia, Clara Orbe, David Saint-Martin, Shingo Watanabe, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13571–13591, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13571-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13571-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), responsible for transporting mass, tracers and heat globally in the stratosphere, is evaluated in a set of state-of-the-art climate models. The acceleration of the BDC in response to increasing greenhouse gases is most robust in the lower stratosphere. At higher levels, the well-known inconsistency between model and observational BDC trends can be partly reconciled by accounting for limited sampling and large uncertainties in the observations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Zheng Wu, Bernat Jiménez-Esteve, Raphaël de Fondeville, Enikő Székely, Guillaume Obozinski, William T. Ball, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 841–865, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-841-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-841-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use an advanced statistical approach to investigate the dynamics of the development of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in the winter Northern Hemisphere. We identify distinct signals that are representative of these events and their event type at lead times beyond currently predictable lead times. The results can be viewed as a promising step towards improving the predictability of SSWs in the future by using more advanced statistical methods in operational forecasting systems.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Seán Donegan, Conor Murphy, Shaun Harrigan, Ciaran Broderick, Dáire Foran Quinn, Saeed Golian, Jeff Knight, Tom Matthews, Christel Prudhomme, Adam A. Scaife, Nicky Stringer, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4159–4183, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We benchmarked the skill of ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) for a diverse sample of 46 Irish catchments. We found that ESP is skilful in the majority of catchments up to several months ahead. However, the level of skill was strongly dependent on lead time, initialisation month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. We also conditioned ESP with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and show that improvements in forecast skill, reliability, and discrimination are possible.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Rachel Furner, Peter Haynes, Dave Munday, Brooks Paige, Daniel C. Jones, and Emily Shuckburgh
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-132, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Traditional weather & climate models are built from physics-based equations, while data-driven models are built from patterns found in datasets using Machine Learning or statistics. There is growing interest in using data-driven models for weather & climate prediction, but confidence in their use depends on understanding the patterns they're finding. We look at this with a simple regression model of ocean temperature and see the patterns found by the regression model are similar to the physics.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Amy H. Butler and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 453–474, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-453-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-453-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We classify by wave geometry the stratospheric polar vortex during the final warming that occurs every spring in both hemispheres due to a combination of radiative and dynamical processes. We show that the shape of the vortex, as well as the timing of the seasonal transition, is linked to total column ozone prior to and surface weather following the final warming. These results have implications for prediction and our understanding of stratosphere–troposphere coupling processes in springtime.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hannah C. Bloomfield, David J. Brayshaw, Paula L. M. Gonzalez, and Andrew Charlton-Perez
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2259–2274, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2259-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2259-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Energy systems are becoming more exposed to weather as more renewable generation is built. This means access to high-quality weather forecasts is becoming more important. This paper showcases past forecasts of electricity demand and wind power and solar power generation across 28 European countries. The timescale of interest is from 5 d out to 1 month ahead. This paper highlights the recent improvements in forecast skill and hopes to promote collaboration in the energy–meteorology community.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
John R. Albers, Amy H. Butler, Melissa L. Breeden, Andrew O. Langford, and George N. Kiladis
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 433–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-433-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-433-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Weather variability controls the transport of ozone from the stratosphere to the Earth’s surface and water vapor from oceanic source regions to continental land masses. Forecasting these types of transport has high societal value because of the negative impacts of ozone on human health and the role of water vapor in governing precipitation variability. We use upper-level wind forecasts to assess the potential for predicting ozone and water vapor transport 3–6 weeks ahead of time.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Antara Banerjee, Amy H. Butler, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Alan Robock, Isla R. Simpson, and Lantao Sun
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6985–6997, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6985-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We find that simulated stratospheric sulfate geoengineering could lead to warmer Eurasian winters alongside a drier Mediterranean and wetting to the north. These effects occur due to the strengthening of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, which shifts the North Atlantic Oscillation to a more positive phase. We find the effects in our simulations to be much more significant than the wintertime effects of large tropical volcanic eruptions which inject much less sulfate aerosol.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philip Rupp and Peter Haynes
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 413–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-413-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We study a range of dynamical aspects of the Asian monsoon anticyclone as the response of a simple numerical model to a steady imposed heating distribution with different background flow configurations. Particular focus is given on interactions between the monsoon anticyclone and active mid-latitude dynamics, which we find to have a zonally localising effect on the time-mean circulation and to be able to qualitatively alter the temporal variability of the bulk anticyclone.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Graeme Marlton, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Giles Harrison, Inna Polichtchouk, Alain Hauchecorne, Philippe Keckhut, Robin Wing, Thierry Leblanc, and Wolfgang Steinbrecht
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6079–6092, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6079-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6079-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A network of Rayleigh lidars have been used to infer the upper-stratosphere temperature bias in ECMWF ERA-5 and ERA-Interim reanalyses during 1990–2017. Results show that ERA-Interim exhibits a cold bias of −3 to −4 K between 10 and 1 hPa. Comparisons with ERA-5 found a smaller bias of 1 K which varies between cold and warm between 10 and 3 hPa, indicating a good thermal representation of the atmosphere to 3 hPa. These biases must be accounted for in stratospheric studies using these reanalyses.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Ohad Harari, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Jian Rao, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Fiona M. O'Connor, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, and Sean Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3725–3740, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, and El Niño is the dominant mode of variability in the ocean–atmosphere system. The connection between El Niño and water vapor above ~ 17 km is unclear, with single-model studies reaching a range of conclusions. This study examines this connection in 12 different models. While there are substantial differences among the models, all models appear to capture the fundamental physical processes correctly.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Melissa L. Breeden, Amy H. Butler, John R. Albers, Michael Sprenger, and Andrew O'Neil Langford
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2781–2794, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2781-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2781-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Prior research has found a maximum in deep stratosphere-to-troposphere mass/ozone transport over the western United States in boreal spring, which can enhance surface ozone concentrations, reducing air quality. We find that the winter-to-summer evolution of the north Pacific jet increases the frequency of stratospheric intrusions that drive transport, helping explain the observed maximum. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation affects the timing of the spring jet transition and therefore transport.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Linda van Garderen, Frauke Feser, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 171–186, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-171-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-171-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The storyline method is used to quantify the effect of climate change on a particular extreme weather event using a global atmospheric model by simulating the event with and without climate change. We present the method and its successful application for the climate change signals of the European 2003 and the Russian 2010 heatwaves.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Joonsuk M. Kang and Seok-Woo Son
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-65, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-65, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the development processes of extratropical cyclones in East Asia, particularly when they are passing through the Korean Peninsula. These extratropical cyclones originate from Mongolia and East China and travel towards the Korean Peninsula. The quantitative analyses in the potential vorticity perspective demonstrate that the former is mostly driven dry-dynamically and the latter is influenced significantly by moist processes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marlene Kretschmer, Giuseppe Zappa, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 715–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The winds in the polar stratosphere affect the weather in the mid-latitudes, making it important to understand potential changes in response to global warming. However, climate model projections disagree on how this so-called polar vortex will change in the future. Here we show that sea ice loss in the Barents and Kara (BK) seas plays a central role in this. The time when the BK seas become ice-free differs between models, which explains some of the disagreement regarding vortex projections.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Rei Chemke, Michael Previdi, Mark R. England, and Lorenzo M. Polvani
The Cryosphere, 14, 4135–4144, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4135-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The increase in Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB, precipitation vs. evaporation/sublimation) is projected to mitigate sea-level rise. Here we show that nearly half of this increase over the 20th century is attributed to stratospheric ozone depletion and ozone-depleting substance (ODS) emissions. Our results suggest that the phaseout of ODS by the Montreal Protocol, and the recovery of stratospheric ozone, will act to decrease the SMB over the 21st century and the mitigation of sea-level rise.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lorenzo M. Polvani and Suzana J. Camargo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13687–13700, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13687-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
On the basis of questionable early studies, it is widely believed that low-latitude volcanic eruptions cause winter warming over Eurasia. However, we here demonstrate that the winter warming over Eurasia following the 1883 Krakatau eruption was unremarkable and, in all likelihood, unrelated to that eruption. Confirming similar findings for the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, the new research demonstrates that no detectable Eurasian winter warming is to be expected after eruptions of similar magnitude.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Irina A. Statnaia, Alexey Y. Karpechko, and Heikki J. Järvinen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-657-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-657-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we investigate the role of the tropospheric forcing in the occurrence of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) that took place in February 2018, its predictability and teleconnection with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) by analysing the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecast. The purpose of the paper is to present the results of the analysis of the atmospheric circulation before and during the SSW and clarify the driving mechanisms.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Iuliia Polkova, Lukas Papritz, Paolo Ruggieri, Martin P. King, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Johanna Baehr, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 541–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the stratospheric influence on marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) in the North Atlantic using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. MCAOs are associated with severe Arctic weather, such as polar lows and strong surface winds. Sudden stratospheric events are found to be associated with more frequent MCAOs in the Barents and the Norwegian seas, affected by the anomalous circulation over Greenland and Scandinavia. Identification of MCAO precursors is crucial for improved long-range prediction.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jessica Oehrlein, Gabriel Chiodo, and Lorenzo M. Polvani
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10531–10544, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10531-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10531-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Winter winds in the stratosphere 10–50 km above the surface impact climate at the surface. Prior studies suggest that this interaction between the stratosphere and the surface is affected by ozone. We compare two ways of including ozone in computer simulations of climate. One method is more realistic but more expensive. We find that the method of including ozone in simulations affects the surface climate when the stratospheric winds are unusually weak but not when they are unusually strong.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Christian M. Grams, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 373–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We cannot currently predict the weather over Europe beyond 2 weeks. The stratosphere provides a promising opportunity to go beyond that limit by providing a change in probability of certain weather regimes at the surface. However, not all stratospheric extreme events are followed by the same surface weather evolution. We show that this weather evolution is related to the tropospheric weather regime around the onset of the stratospheric extreme event for many stratospheric events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Veronika Eyring, Lisa Bock, Axel Lauer, Mattia Righi, Manuel Schlund, Bouwe Andela, Enrico Arnone, Omar Bellprat, Björn Brötz, Louis-Philippe Caron, Nuno Carvalhais, Irene Cionni, Nicola Cortesi, Bas Crezee, Edouard L. Davin, Paolo Davini, Kevin Debeire, Lee de Mora, Clara Deser, David Docquier, Paul Earnshaw, Carsten Ehbrecht, Bettina K. Gier, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Paul Goodman, Stefan Hagemann, Steven Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Alasdair Hunter, Christopher Kadow, Stephan Kindermann, Sujan Koirala, Nikolay Koldunov, Quentin Lejeune, Valerio Lembo, Tomas Lovato, Valerio Lucarini, François Massonnet, Benjamin Müller, Amarjiit Pandde, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Adam Phillips, Valeriu Predoi, Joellen Russell, Alistair Sellar, Federico Serva, Tobias Stacke, Ranjini Swaminathan, Verónica Torralba, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Jost von Hardenberg, Katja Weigel, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3383–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool designed to improve comprehensive and routine evaluation of earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). It has undergone rapid development since the first release in 2016 and is now a well-tested tool that provides end-to-end provenance tracking to ensure reproducibility.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ulrike Niemeier, Jadwiga H. Richter, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8975–8987, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8975-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8975-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Artificial injections of SO2 into the tropical stratosphere show an impact on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Different numerical models show only qualitatively but not quantitatively consistent impacts. We show for two models that the response of the QBO is similar when a similar stratospheric heating rate is induced by SO2 injections of different amounts. The reason is very different vertical advection in the two models resulting in different aerosol burden and heating of the aerosols.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Vincenzo Rizi, Marco Iarlori, Irene Cionni, Ilaria Quaglia, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando Garcia, Patrick Joeckel, Douglas Kinnison, Jean-François Lamarque, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Tatsuya Nagashima, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David Plummer, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we analyse the trend in ozone profiles taken at L'Aquila (Italy, 42.4° N) for seventeen years, between 2000 and 2016 and compare them against already available measured ozone trends. We try to understand and explain the observed trends at various heights in light of the simulations from seventeen different model, highlighting the contribution of changes in circulation and chemical ozone loss during this time period.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Emanuele Bevacqua, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1765–1782, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal compound flooding (CF), caused by interacting storm surges and high water runoff, is typically studied based on concurring storm surge extremes with either precipitation or river discharge extremes. Globally, these two approaches show similar CF spatial patterns, especially where the CF potential is the highest. Deviations between the two approaches increase with the catchment size. The precipitation-based analysis allows for considering
local-rainfall-driven CF and CF in small rivers.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Bernat Jiménez-Esteve and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 225–245, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-225-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-225-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric predictability over Europe on subseasonal to seasonal timescales remains limited. However, the remote impact from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can help to improve predictability. Research has suggested that the ENSO impact in the North Atlantic region is affected by nonlinearities. Here, we isolate the nonlinearities in the tropospheric pathway through the North Pacific, finding that a strong El Niño leads to a stronger and distinct impact compared to a strong La Niña.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Graeme Marlton, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Giles Harrison, Inna Polichtchouk, Alain Hauchecorne, Philippe Keckhut, and Robin Wing
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-254, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-254, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
A network of Rayleigh lidars have been used to infer the middle atmosphere temperature bias in ECMWF ERA-5 and ERA-interim reanalyses during 1990–2017. Results show that ERA-interim exhibits a cold bias of −3 to −4 K between 10 and 1 hPa. Comparisons with ERA-5 found a smaller bias of 1 K which varies between cold and warm between 10 and 3 hPa, indicating a good thermal representation of the atmosphere to 3 hPa. These biases must be accounted for in stratospheric studies using these reanalyses.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Neil C. Swart, Jason N. S. Cole, Viatcheslav V. Kharin, Mike Lazare, John F. Scinocca, Nathan P. Gillett, James Anstey, Vivek Arora, James R. Christian, Sarah Hanna, Yanjun Jiao, Warren G. Lee, Fouad Majaess, Oleg A. Saenko, Christian Seiler, Clint Seinen, Andrew Shao, Michael Sigmond, Larry Solheim, Knut von Salzen, Duo Yang, and Barbara Winter
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4823–4873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4823-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4823-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) is a global model developed to simulate historical climate change and variability, to make centennial-scale projections of future climate, and to produce initialized seasonal and decadal predictions. This paper describes the model components and quantifies the model performance. CanESM5 simulations contribute to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and will be employed for climate science applications in Canada.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ohad Harari, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Sean Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9253–9268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9253-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9253-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone depletion in the Antarctic has been shown to influence surface conditions, but the effects of ozone depletion in the Arctic on surface climate are unclear. We show that Arctic ozone does influence surface climate in both polar regions and tropical regions, though the proximate cause of these surface impacts is not yet clear.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Patrick C. Taylor, Robyn C. Boeke, Ying Li, and David W. J. Thompson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8759–8782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8759-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8759-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Climate projections disagree more in the rapidly changing Arctic than anywhere else. The impact of a changing Arctic spans food and water security, economics, national security, etc. The representation of Arctic clouds within climate models is a critical roadblock towards improving Arctic climate projections. We explore the potential drivers of the diverse representation of the Arctic cloud annual cycle within climate models providing evidence that microphysical processes are a key driver.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lorenzo M. Polvani, Antara Banerjee, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6351–6366, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6351-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6351-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides compelling new evidence that the surface winter warming observed over the Northern Hemisphere continents following the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo was, very likely, completely unrelated to the eruption. This result has implications for earlier eruptions, as the evidence presented here demonstrates that the surface signal of even the very largest known eruptions may be swamped by the internal variability at high latitudes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
David Walters, Anthony J. Baran, Ian Boutle, Malcolm Brooks, Paul Earnshaw, John Edwards, Kalli Furtado, Peter Hill, Adrian Lock, James Manners, Cyril Morcrette, Jane Mulcahy, Claudio Sanchez, Chris Smith, Rachel Stratton, Warren Tennant, Lorenzo Tomassini, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Simon Vosper, Martin Willett, Jo Browse, Andrew Bushell, Kenneth Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, Richard Essery, Nicola Gedney, Steven Hardiman, Ben Johnson, Colin Johnson, Andy Jones, Colin Jones, Graham Mann, Sean Milton, Heather Rumbold, Alistair Sellar, Masashi Ujiie, Michael Whitall, Keith Williams, and Mohamed Zerroukat
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1909–1963, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1909-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1909-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Global Atmosphere (GA) configurations of the Unified Model (UM) and Global Land (GL) configurations of JULES are developed for use in any global atmospheric modelling application. We describe a recent iteration of these configurations, GA7/GL7, which includes new aerosol and snow schemes and addresses the four critical errors identified in GA6. GA7/GL7 will underpin the UK's contributions to CMIP6, and hence their documentation is important.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Doug M. Smith, James A. Screen, Clara Deser, Judah Cohen, John C. Fyfe, Javier García-Serrano, Thomas Jung, Vladimir Kattsov, Daniela Matei, Rym Msadek, Yannick Peings, Michael Sigmond, Jinro Ukita, Jin-Ho Yoon, and Xiangdong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1139–1164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1139-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1139-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) is an endorsed contribution to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It will investigate the causes and global consequences of polar amplification through coordinated multi-model numerical experiments. This paper documents the experimental protocol.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Laura Thölix, Alexey Karpechko, Leif Backman, and Rigel Kivi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15047–15067, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15047-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15047-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the impact of water vapour (WV) on Arctic ozone loss and find the strongest impact during intermediately cold stratospheric winters when chlorine activation increases with increasing PSCs and WV. In colder winters the impact is limited because chlorine activation becomes complete at relatively low WV values, so further addition of WV does not affect ozone loss. Our results imply that improved simulations of WV are needed for more reliable projections of ozone layer recovery.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mohamadou Diallo, Martin Riese, Thomas Birner, Paul Konopka, Rolf Müller, Michaela I. Hegglin, Michelle L. Santee, Mark Baldwin, Bernard Legras, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13055–13073, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13055-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13055-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The unprecedented timing of an El Niño event aligned with the disrupted QBO in 2015–2016 caused a perturbation to the stratospheric circulation, affecting trace gases. This paper resolves the puzzling response of the lower stratospheric water vapor by showing that the QBO disruption reversed the lower stratosphere moistening triggered by the alignment of the El Niño event with a westerly QBO in early boreal winter.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Blanca Ayarzagüena, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Ulrike Langematz, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Steven C. Hardiman, Patrick Jöckel, Andrew Klekociuk, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David A. Plummer, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11277–11287, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are natural major disruptions of the polar stratospheric circulation that also affect surface weather. In the literature there are conflicting claims as to whether SSWs will change in the future. The confusion comes from studies using different models and methods. Here we settle the question by analysing 12 models with a consistent methodology, to show that no robust changes in frequency and other features are expected over the 21st century.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sandip S. Dhomse, Douglas Kinnison, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Ross J. Salawitch, Irene Cionni, Michaela I. Hegglin, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alex T. Archibald, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Peter Braesicke, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Stacey Frith, Steven C. Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, Rong-Ming Hu, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Oliver Kirner, Stefanie Kremser, Ulrike Langematz, Jared Lewis, Marion Marchand, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8409–8438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion by anthropogenic chlorine and bromine. The simulations from 20 models project that global column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2047 (uncertainty range 2042–2052). Return dates in other regions vary depending on factors related to climate change and importance of chlorine and bromine. Column ozone in the tropics may continue to decline.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Clara Orbe, Huang Yang, Darryn W. Waugh, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, Douglas E. Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Simone Tilmes, David A. Plummer, John F. Scinocca, Beatrice Josse, Virginie Marecal, Patrick Jöckel, Luke D. Oman, Susan E. Strahan, Makoto Deushi, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Kohei Yoshida, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yousuke Yamashita, Andreas Stenke, Laura Revell, Timofei Sukhodolov, Eugene Rozanov, Giovanni Pitari, Daniele Visioni, Kane A. Stone, Robyn Schofield, and Antara Banerjee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7217–7235, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we compare a few atmospheric transport properties among several numerical models that are used to study the influence of atmospheric chemistry on climate. We show that there are large differences among models in terms of the timescales that connect the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, where greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances are emitted, to the Southern Hemisphere. Our results may have important implications for how models represent atmospheric composition.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Patrick Martineau, Seok-Woo Son, Masakazu Taguchi, and Amy H. Butler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7169–7187, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7169-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7169-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates the agreement between eight reanalysis datasets by comparing zonal-mean zonal winds and the forcing terms of the zonal-mean momentum equation during sudden stratospheric warming events. Results show that the spread between datasets increases exponentially with height and is largest during the most intense sudden stratospheric warming events. The largest uncertainties arise from differences in the mean meridional circulation and horizontal fluxes of momentum by eddies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Simone Dietmüller, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Thomas Birner, Harald Boenisch, Giovanni Pitari, Eva Mancini, Daniele Visioni, Andrea Stenke, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, David A. Plummer, John Scinocca, Patrick Jöckel, Luke Oman, Makoto Deushi, Shibata Kiyotaka, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando Garcia, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Kane Adam Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6699–6720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6699-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6699-2018, 2018
Camille Li, Clio Michel, Lise Seland Graff, Ingo Bethke, Giuseppe Zappa, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Erich Fischer, Ben J. Harvey, Trond Iversen, Martin P. King, Harinarayan Krishnan, Ludwig Lierhammer, Daniel Mitchell, John Scinocca, Hideo Shiogama, Dáithí A. Stone, and Justin J. Wettstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 359–382, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-359-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-359-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the midlatitude atmospheric circulation response to 1.5°C and 2.0°C of warming using modelling experiments run for the HAPPI project (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis & Projected Impacts). While the chaotic nature of the atmospheric flow dominates in these low-end warming scenarios, some local changes emerge. Case studies explore precipitation impacts both for regions that dry (Mediterranean) and regions that get wetter (Europe, North American west coast).
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Amit Gordon, Luke D. Oman, Feng Li, Sean Davis, and Steven Pawson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4597–4615, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4597-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4597-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of El Niño in the lower stratosphere is nonlinear in spring. While moderate El Niño events lead to cooling in this region,
strong El Niño events appear to lead to warming, and hence the water vapor response is nonlinear too. The net effect is that strong
El Nino events, such as in 1997/1998 and 2015/2016, lead to qualitatively different water vapor impacts as compared to moderate
El Nino events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Paul J. Kushner, Lawrence R. Mudryk, William Merryfield, Jaison T. Ambadan, Aaron Berg, Adéline Bichet, Ross Brown, Chris Derksen, Stephen J. Déry, Arlan Dirkson, Greg Flato, Christopher G. Fletcher, John C. Fyfe, Nathan Gillett, Christian Haas, Stephen Howell, Frédéric Laliberté, Kelly McCusker, Michael Sigmond, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Neil F. Tandon, Chad Thackeray, Bruno Tremblay, and Francis W. Zwiers
The Cryosphere, 12, 1137–1156, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1137-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1137-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Here, the Canadian research network CanSISE uses state-of-the-art observations of snow and sea ice to assess how Canada's climate model and climate prediction systems capture variability in snow, sea ice, and related climate parameters. We find that the system performs well, accounting for observational uncertainty (especially for snow), model uncertainty, and chaotic climate variability. Even for variables like sea ice, where improvement is needed, useful prediction tools can be developed.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Neal Butchart, James A. Anstey, Kevin Hamilton, Scott Osprey, Charles McLandress, Andrew C. Bushell, Yoshio Kawatani, Young-Ha Kim, Francois Lott, John Scinocca, Timothy N. Stockdale, Martin Andrews, Omar Bellprat, Peter Braesicke, Chiara Cagnazzo, Chih-Chieh Chen, Hye-Yeong Chun, Mikhail Dobrynin, Rolando R. Garcia, Javier Garcia-Serrano, Lesley J. Gray, Laura Holt, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Hiroaki Naoe, Holger Pohlmann, Jadwiga H. Richter, Adam A. Scaife, Verena Schenzinger, Federico Serva, Stefan Versick, Shingo Watanabe, Kohei Yoshida, and Seiji Yukimoto
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1009–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1009-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1009-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper documents the numerical experiments to be used in phase 1 of the Stratosphere–troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi), which was set up to improve the representation of the QBO and tropical stratospheric variability in global climate models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kristian Förster, Florian Hanzer, Elena Stoll, Adam A. Scaife, Craig MacLachlan, Johannes Schöber, Matthias Huttenlau, Stefan Achleitner, and Ulrich Strasser
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1157–1173, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1157-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1157-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents predictability analyses of snow accumulation for the upcoming winter season. The results achieved using two coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models and a water balance model show that the tendency of snow water equivalent anomalies (i.e. the sign of anomalies) is correctly predicted in up to 11 of 13 years. The results suggest that some seasonal predictions may be capable of predicting tendencies of hydrological model storages in parts of Europe.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Olaf Morgenstern, Kane A. Stone, Robyn Schofield, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yousuke Yamashita, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando R. Garcia, Kengo Sudo, David A. Plummer, John Scinocca, Luke D. Oman, Michael E. Manyin, Guang Zeng, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Laura E. Revell, Giovanni Pitari, Eva Mancini, Glauco Di Genova, Daniele Visioni, Sandip S. Dhomse, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1091–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1091-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1091-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We assess how ozone as simulated by a group of chemistry–climate models responds to variations in man-made climate gases and ozone-depleting substances. We find some agreement, particularly in the middle and upper stratosphere, but also considerable disagreement elsewhere. Such disagreement affects the reliability of future ozone projections based on these models, and also constitutes a source of uncertainty in climate projections using prescribed ozone derived from these simulations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Victoria A. Bell, Helen N. Davies, Alison L. Kay, Anca Brookshaw, and Adam A. Scaife
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4681–4691, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4681-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4681-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The research presented here provides the first evaluation of the skill of a seasonal hydrological forecast for the UK. The forecast scheme combines rainfall forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 forecast system with a national-scale hydrological model to provide estimates of river flows 1 to 3 months ahead. The skill in the combined model is assessed for different seasons and regions of Britain, and the analysis indicates that Autumn/Winter flows can be forecast with reasonable confidence.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katja Matthes, Bernd Funke, Monika E. Andersson, Luke Barnard, Jürg Beer, Paul Charbonneau, Mark A. Clilverd, Thierry Dudok de Wit, Margit Haberreiter, Aaron Hendry, Charles H. Jackman, Matthieu Kretzschmar, Tim Kruschke, Markus Kunze, Ulrike Langematz, Daniel R. Marsh, Amanda C. Maycock, Stergios Misios, Craig J. Rodger, Adam A. Scaife, Annika Seppälä, Ming Shangguan, Miriam Sinnhuber, Kleareti Tourpali, Ilya Usoskin, Max van de Kamp, Pekka T. Verronen, and Stefan Versick
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2247–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The solar forcing dataset for climate model experiments performed for the upcoming IPCC report is described. This dataset provides the radiative and particle input of solar variability on a daily basis from 1850 through to 2300. With this dataset a better representation of natural climate variability with respect to the output of the Sun is provided which provides the most sophisticated and comprehensive respresentation of solar variability that has been used in climate model simulations so far.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
David Walters, Ian Boutle, Malcolm Brooks, Thomas Melvin, Rachel Stratton, Simon Vosper, Helen Wells, Keith Williams, Nigel Wood, Thomas Allen, Andrew Bushell, Dan Copsey, Paul Earnshaw, John Edwards, Markus Gross, Steven Hardiman, Chris Harris, Julian Heming, Nicholas Klingaman, Richard Levine, James Manners, Gill Martin, Sean Milton, Marion Mittermaier, Cyril Morcrette, Thomas Riddick, Malcolm Roberts, Claudio Sanchez, Paul Selwood, Alison Stirling, Chris Smith, Dan Suri, Warren Tennant, Pier Luigi Vidale, Jonathan Wilkinson, Martin Willett, Steve Woolnough, and Prince Xavier
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1487–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1487-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1487-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Global Atmosphere (GA) configurations of the Unified Model (UM) and Global Land (GL) configurations of JULES are developed for use in any global atmospheric modelling application.
We describe a recent iteration of these configurations: GA6/GL6. This includes ENDGame: a new dynamical core designed to improve the model's accuracy, stability and scalability. GA6 is now operational in a variety of Met Office and UM collaborators applications and hence its documentation is important.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
We describe a recent iteration of these configurations: GA6/GL6. This includes ENDGame: a new dynamical core designed to improve the model's accuracy, stability and scalability. GA6 is now operational in a variety of Met Office and UM collaborators applications and hence its documentation is important.
Steven C. Hardiman, Neal Butchart, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Steven T. Rumbold
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1209–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1209-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1209-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
HadGEM3-ES is improved, with respect to the previous model, in 10 of the 14 metrics considered. A significant bias in stratospheric water vapour is reduced, allowing more accurate simulation of water vapour and ozone concentrations in the stratosphere. Dynamics are found to influence the spatial structure of the simulated ozone hole and the area of polar stratospheric clouds. This research was carried out as part of involvement in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCM-I).
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Matthias Fischer, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Wolfgang A. Müller, and Johanna Baehr
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 129–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-129-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-129-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In a climate projection experiment with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), we find that a decline in the Atlantic Ocean meridional heat transport (OHT) is accompanied by a change in the seasonal cycle of the total OHT and its components. We found a northward shift of 5° and latitude-dependent shifts between 1 and 6 months in the seasonal cycle that are mainly associated with changes in the meridional velocity field rather than the temperature field.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Olaf Morgenstern, Michaela I. Hegglin, Eugene Rozanov, Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando R. Garcia, Steven C. Hardiman, Larry W. Horowitz, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Michael E. Manyin, Marion Marchand, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 639–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present a review of the make-up of 20 models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). In comparison to earlier such activities, most of these models comprise a whole-atmosphere chemistry, and several of them include an interactive ocean module. This makes them suitable for studying the interactions of tropospheric air quality, stratospheric ozone, and climate. The paper lays the foundation for other studies using the CCMI simulations for scientific analysis.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Amy H. Butler, Jeremiah P. Sjoberg, Dian J. Seidel, and Karen H. Rosenlof
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 63–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-63-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-63-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
From six different reanalysis products, we created a new comprehensive database of major sudden stratospheric warming events, which are large and rapid temperature increases in the stratosphere associated with a reversal of the stratospheric winter circulation. This new database can facilitate analysis of the evolution and surface impacts of these events as well as intercomparison of reanalysis products.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Daniel Mitchell, Krishna AchutaRao, Myles Allen, Ingo Bethke, Urs Beyerle, Andrew Ciavarella, Piers M. Forster, Jan Fuglestvedt, Nathan Gillett, Karsten Haustein, William Ingram, Trond Iversen, Viatcheslav Kharin, Nicholas Klingaman, Neil Massey, Erich Fischer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, John Scinocca, Øyvind Seland, Hideo Shiogama, Emily Shuckburgh, Sarah Sparrow, Dáithí Stone, Peter Uhe, David Wallom, Michael Wehner, and Rashyd Zaaboul
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 571–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an experimental design to assess impacts of a world that is 1.5 °C warmer than at pre-industrial levels. The design is a new way to approach impacts from the climate community, and aims to answer questions related to the recent Paris Agreement. In particular the paper provides a method for studying extreme events under relatively high mitigation scenarios.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Valentina Aquila, Darryn W. Waugh, and Luke D. Oman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1313–1327, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1313-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1313-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Previous work has noted a discrepancy between models and observations in trends of the large-scale overturning circulation in the stratosphere. Here, we show that a model can simulate trends that are reminiscent of those observed, including space- and time-varying trends in different regions of the stratosphere. We therefore clarify that the statement that is often made that models simulate an accelerated circulation only applies over long time periods and is not true for the past 25 years.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hyun Cheol Kim, Soontae Kim, Seok-Woo Son, Pius Lee, Chun-Sil Jin, Eunhye Kim, Byeong-Uk Kim, Fong Ngan, Changhan Bae, Chang-Keun Song, and Ariel Stein
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2016-673, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2016-673, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, frequent occurrence of severe haze events in East Asia is one of the most serious public concerns in this region. We demonstrate that daily pollutant transport patterns in East Asia are visible from satellite images when inspected with corresponding synoptic weather analyses. Our manuscript focuses on the possible role of meteorology, especially by the routine passages of synoptic systems, on the production and removal of regional pollution in East Asia.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Vivek K. Arora and John F. Scinocca
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2357–2376, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2357-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2357-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper uses observed features of the global carbon cycle to constrain how much carbon the land should take up in an Earth system model in response to increasing fossil fuel CO2 emissions since the start of the industrial era. These models are the only tool available to us for projecting future climate change. Despite their uncertainties, if current observations can be used to constrain models then more confidence can be places in models' future climate change projections.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jonathan J. Day, Steffen Tietsche, Mat Collins, Helge F. Goessling, Virginie Guemas, Anabelle Guillory, William J. Hurlin, Masayoshi Ishii, Sarah P. E. Keeley, Daniela Matei, Rym Msadek, Michael Sigmond, Hiroaki Tatebe, and Ed Hawkins
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2255–2270, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2255-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2255-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Recent decades have seen significant developments in seasonal-to-interannual timescale climate prediction. However, until recently the potential of such systems to predict Arctic climate had not been assessed. This paper describes a multi-model predictability experiment which was run as part of the Arctic Predictability and Prediction On Seasonal to Interannual Timescales (APPOSITE) project. The main goal of APPOSITE was to quantify the timescales on which Arctic climate is predictable.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Laura Thölix, Leif Backman, Rigel Kivi, and Alexey Yu. Karpechko
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4307–4321, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4307-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4307-2016, 2016
D. Pendlebury, D. Plummer, J. Scinocca, P. Sheese, K. Strong, K. Walker, and D. Degenstein
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12465–12485, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12465-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12465-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The CMAM30 data set takes a chemistry-climate model and relaxes the dynamics to reanalysis, which can then provide chemistry fields not available from the reanalysis data set. This paper addresses this gap by comparing temperature, water vapour, ozone and methane to satellite data to determine and document any biases in the model fields. The lack of ozone destruction and dehydration in the SH polar vortex is shown to be due to the treatment of polar stratosphere clouds in the model.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
C. McLandress, T. G. Shepherd, A. I. Jonsson, T. von Clarmann, and B. Funke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9271–9284, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9271-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9271-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first paper of its kind describing a method for merging the long-term satellite records of global stratospheric temperature from SSU and AMSU to yield a continuous data set from 1979 to present (and beyond). Since global-mean stratospheric temperature is close to radiative equilibrium, our "extended" SSU data set is an important climate record for the detection and attribution of anthropogenic influence.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
K. Kreher, G. E. Bodeker, and M. Sigmond
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7653–7665, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7653-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7653-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This manuscript aims to answer the following question: which of the existing sites engaged in upper-air temperature measurements are best located to detect expected future trends within the shortest time possible? To do so, we explore one objective method for selecting the optimal locations for detecting projected 21st century trends and then demonstrate a similar technique for objectively selecting optimal locations for detecting expected future trends in total column ozone.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
V. Matthias, T. G. Shepherd, P. Hoffmann, and M. Rapp
Ann. Geophys., 33, 199–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-199-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-199-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A vertical coupling process in the northern high-latitude middle atmosphere has been identified during the equinox transitions, which we call the “hiccup” and which acts like a “mini sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)”. We study the average characteristics of the hiccup based on a composite analysis using a nudged model. A comparison of the average characteristics of hiccups and SSWs shows both similarities and differences between the two vertical coupling processes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
D. N. Walters, K. D. Williams, I. A. Boutle, A. C. Bushell, J. M. Edwards, P. R. Field, A. P. Lock, C. J. Morcrette, R. A. Stratton, J. M. Wilkinson, M. R. Willett, N. Bellouin, A. Bodas-Salcedo, M. E. Brooks, D. Copsey, P. D. Earnshaw, S. C. Hardiman, C. M. Harris, R. C. Levine, C. MacLachlan, J. C. Manners, G. M. Martin, S. F. Milton, M. D. Palmer, M. J. Roberts, J. M. Rodríguez, W. J. Tennant, and P. L. Vidale
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 361–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-361-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-361-2014, 2014
C. McLandress, D. A. Plummer, and T. G. Shepherd
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1547–1555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1547-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1547-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Dynamics | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Stratosphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
On the pattern of interannual polar vortex–ozone co-variability during northern hemispheric winter
A mountain ridge model for quantifying oblique mountain wave propagation and distribution
Weakening of the tropical tropopause layer cold trap with global warming
Vortex Preconditioning of the 2021 Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Barotropic/Baroclinic Instability Associated with the Double Westerly Jets
On the magnitude and sensitivity of the quasi-biennial oscillation response to a tropical volcanic eruption
The response of the North Pacific jet and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of ozone over western North America to RCP8.5 climate forcing
The Holton–Tan mechanism under stratospheric aerosol intervention
Stratospherically induced tropospheric circulation changes under the extreme conditions of the No-Montreal-Protocol scenario
Very-long-period oscillations in the atmosphere (0–110 km) – Part 2: Latitude– longitude comparisons and trends
Driving mechanisms for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation impact on stratospheric ozone
Exploring the link between austral stratospheric polar vortex anomalies and surface climate in chemistry-climate models
The impact of improved spatial and temporal resolution of reanalysis data on Lagrangian studies of the tropical tropopause layer
Dynamics of ENSO-driven stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of ozone over North America
Ozone–gravity wave interaction in the upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere
How can Brewer–Dobson circulation trends be estimated from changes in stratospheric water vapour and methane?
The semi-annual oscillation (SAO) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS)
Interactions between the stratospheric polar vortex and Atlantic circulation on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales
Impacts of three types of solar geoengineering on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Enhanced upward motion through the troposphere over the tropical western Pacific and its implications for the transport of trace gases from the troposphere to the stratosphere
Evolution of the intensity and duration of the Southern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex edge for the period 1979–2020
Characterization of transport from the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone into the UTLS via shedding of low potential vorticity cutoffs
Weakening of Antarctic stratospheric planetary wave activities in early austral spring since the early 2000s: a response to sea surface temperature trends
The impact of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) sinks on age of air climatologies and trends
Specified dynamics scheme impacts on wave-mean flow dynamics, convection, and tracer transport in CESM2 (WACCM6)
Propagation paths and source distributions of resolved gravity waves in ECMWF-IFS analysis fields around the southern polar night jet
Observation and modeling of high-7Be concentration events at the surface in northern Europe associated with the instability of the Arctic polar vortex in early 2003
Eastward-propagating planetary waves in the polar middle atmosphere
The Brewer–Dobson circulation in CMIP6
Climate impact of volcanic eruptions: the sensitivity to eruption season and latitude in MPI-ESM ensemble experiments
Contributions of equatorial waves and small-scale convective gravity waves to the 2019/20 quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) disruption
Differences in the quasi-biennial oscillation response to stratospheric aerosol modification depending on injection strategy and species
The advective Brewer–Dobson circulation in the ERA5 reanalysis: climatology, variability, and trends
Is our dynamical understanding of the circulation changes associated with the Antarctic ozone hole sensitive to the choice of reanalysis dataset?
The impact of increasing stratospheric radiative damping on the quasi-biennial oscillation period
Analysis of recent lower-stratospheric ozone trends in chemistry climate models
Asymmetry and pathways of inter-hemispheric transport in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere
Effects of prescribed CMIP6 ozone on simulating the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation response to ozone depletion
Reanalysis intercomparison of potential vorticity and potential-vorticity-based diagnostics
Influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on entry stratospheric water vapor in coupled chemistry–ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models
Reappraising the appropriate calculation of a common meteorological quantity: potential temperature
Impact of Lagrangian transport on lower-stratospheric transport timescales in a climate model
Role of equatorial waves and convective gravity waves in the 2015/16 quasi-biennial oscillation disruption
Sensitivity of the Southern Hemisphere circumpolar jet response to Antarctic ozone depletion: prescribed versus interactive chemistry
Characterizing quasi-biweekly variability of the Asian monsoon anticyclone using potential vorticity and large-scale geopotential height field
Climatological impact of the Brewer–Dobson circulation on the N2O budget in WACCM, a chemical reanalysis and a CTM driven by four dynamical reanalyses
Polar stratospheric clouds initiated by mountain waves in a global chemistry–climate model: a missing piece in fully modelling polar stratospheric ozone depletion
Using the climate feedback response analysis method to quantify climate feedbacks in the middle atmosphere
Deep-convective influence on the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere composition in the Asian monsoon anticyclone region: 2017 StratoClim campaign results
The effect of interactive ozone chemistry on weak and strong stratospheric polar vortex events
Lagrangian gravity wave spectra in the lower stratosphere of current (re)analyses
Frederik Harzer, Hella Garny, Felix Ploeger, Harald Bönisch, Peter Hoor, and Thomas Birner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10661–10675, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10661-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We study the statistical relation between year-by-year fluctuations in winter-mean ozone and the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. In the latitude–pressure plane, regression analysis shows that anomalously weak polar vortex years are associated with three pronounced local ozone maxima over the polar cap relative to the winter climatology. These response maxima primarily reflect the non-trivial combination of different ozone transport processes with varying relative contributions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sebastian Rhode, Peter Preusse, Manfred Ern, Jörn Ungermann, Lukas Krasauskas, Julio Bacmeister, and Martin Riese
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7901–7934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7901-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7901-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Gravity waves (GWs) transport energy vertically and horizontally within the atmosphere and thereby affect wind speeds far from their sources. Here, we present a model that identifies orographic GW sources and predicts the pathways of the excited GWs through the atmosphere for a better understanding of horizontal GW propagation. We use this model to explain physical patterns in satellite observations (e.g., low GW activity above the Himalaya) and predict seasonal patterns of GW propagation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stephen Bourguet and Marianna Linz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7447–7460, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7447-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7447-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we show how projected changes to tropical circulation will impact the water vapor concentration in the lower stratosphere, which has implications for surface climate and stratospheric chemistry. In our transport scenarios with slower east–west winds, air parcels ascending into the stratosphere do not experience the same cold temperatures that they would today. This effect could act in concert with previously modeled changes to stratospheric water vapor to amplify surface warming.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ji-Hee Yoo, Hye-Yeong Chun, and Min-Jee Kang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1044, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1044, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The January 2021 Sudden stratospheric warming is preceded by the unusual double westerly jets with the polar stratospheric and subtropical mesospheric cores. This wind structure promotes anomalous dissipation of tropospheric planetary waves between the two maxima, leading to unusually strong shear instability. Shear instability generates the westward-propagating planetary waves with zonal wavenumber 2 in situ, thereby splitting the polar vortex just before the onset.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Flossie Brown, Lauren Marshall, Peter H. Haynes, Rolando R. Garcia, Thomas Birner, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5335–5353, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5335-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Large-magnitude volcanic eruptions have the potential to alter large-scale circulation patterns, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO is an oscillation of the tropical stratospheric zonal winds between easterly and westerly directions. Using a climate model, we show that large-magnitude eruptions can delay the progression of the QBO, with a much longer delay when the shear is easterly than when it is westerly. Such delays may affect weather and transport of atmospheric gases.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Dillon Elsbury, Amy H. Butler, John R. Albers, Melissa L. Breeden, and Andrew O'Neil Langford
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5101–5117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5101-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
One of the global hotspots where stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) of ozone takes place is over Pacific North America (PNA). However, we do not know how or if STT over PNA will change in response to climate change. Using climate model experiments forced with
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
worst-casescenario Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change, we find that changes in net chemical production and transport of ozone in the lower stratosphere increase STT of ozone over PNA in the future.
Khalil Karami, Rolando Garcia, Christoph Jacobi, Jadwiga H. Richter, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3799–3818, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3799-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3799-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Alongside mitigation and adaptation efforts, stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) is increasingly considered a third pillar to combat dangerous climate change. We investigate the teleconnection between the quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere and the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex under a warmer climate and an SAI scenario. We show that the Holton–Tan relationship weakens under both scenarios and discuss the physical mechanisms responsible for such changes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Franziska Zilker, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriel Chiodo, Marina Friedel, Tatiana Egorova, Eugene Rozanov, Jan Sedlacek, Svenja Seeber, and Thomas Peter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-326, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-326, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Montreal Protocol (MP) has successfully reduced the Antarctic ozone hole by banning chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) that destroy the ozone layer. Moreover, CFCs are strong greenhouse gases (GHGs) that would have strengthened global warming. In this study, we investigate the surface weather and climate in a world without the MP at the end of the 21st century disentangling ozone-mediated and GHG impacts of CFCs. Overall, we avoided 1.9 K global surface warming and a poleward shift of storm tracks.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Dirk Offermann, Christoph Kalicinsky, Ralf Koppmann, and Johannes Wintel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3267–3278, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric oscillations with periods between 5 and more than 200 years are believed to be self-excited (internal) in the atmosphere, i.e. non-anthropogenic. They are found at all altitudes up to 110 km and at four very different geographical locations (75° N, 70° E; 75° N, 280° E; 50° N, 7° E; 50° S, 7° E). Therefore, they hint at a global-oscillation mode. Their amplitudes are on the order of present-day climate trends, and it is therefore difficult to disentangle them.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Samuel Benito-Barca, Natalia Calvo, and Marta Abalos
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15729–15745, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15729-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15729-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of different El Niño flavors (eastern (EP) and central (CP) Pacific El Niño) and La Niña on the stratospheric ozone is studied in a state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model. Ozone reduces in the tropics and increases in the extratropics when an EP El Niño event occurs, the opposite of La Niña. However, CP El Niño has no impact on extratropical ozone. These ozone variations are driven by changes in the stratospheric transport circulation, with an important contribution of mixing.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nora Bergner, Marina Friedel, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Darryn Waugh, and Gabriel Chiodo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13915–13934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Polar vortex extremes, particularly situations with an unusually weak cyclonic circulation in the stratosphere, can influence the surface climate in the spring–summer time in the Southern Hemisphere. Using chemistry-climate models and observations, we evaluate the robustness of the surface impacts. While models capture the general surface response, they do not show the observed climate patterns in midlatitude regions, which we trace back to biases in the models' circulations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stephen Bourguet and Marianna Linz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13325–13339, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13325-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13325-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we tested the impact of spatial and temporal resolution on Lagrangian trajectory studies in a key region of interest for climate feedbacks and stratospheric chemistry. Our analysis shows that new higher-resolution input data provide an opportunity for a better understanding of physical processes that control how air moves from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Future studies of how these processes will change in a warming climate will benefit from these results.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
John R. Albers, Amy H. Butler, Andrew O. Langford, Dillon Elsbury, and Melissa L. Breeden
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13035–13048, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone transported from the stratosphere contributes to background ozone concentrations in the free troposphere and to surface ozone exceedance events that affect human health. The physical processes whereby the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates North American stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone transport during spring are documented, and the usefulness of ENSO for predicting ozone events that may cause exceedances in surface air quality standards are assessed.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Axel Gabriel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10425–10441, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10425-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10425-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent measurements show some evidence that the amplitudes of atmospheric gravity waves (horizontal wavelengths of 100–2000 km), which propagate from the troposphere (0–10 km) to the stratosphere and mesosphere (10–100 km), increase more strongly with height during daytime than during nighttime. This study shows that ozone–temperature coupling in the upper stratosphere can principally produce such an amplification. The results will help to improve atmospheric circulation models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Liubov Poshyvailo-Strube, Rolf Müller, Stephan Fueglistaler, Michaela I. Hegglin, Johannes C. Laube, C. Michael Volk, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9895–9914, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9895-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) controls the composition of the stratosphere, which in turn affects radiation and climate. As the BDC cannot be measured directly, it is necessary to infer its strength and trends indirectly. In this study, we test in the
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
model worlddifferent methods for estimating the mean age of air trends based on a combination of stratospheric water vapour and methane data. We also provide simple practical advice of a more reliable estimation of the mean age of air trends.
Ming Shangguan and Wuke Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9499–9511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9499-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9499-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Skilful predictions of weather and climate on subseasonal to seasonal scales are valuable for decision makers. Here we show the global spatiotemporal variation of the temperature SAO in the UTLS with GNSS RO and reanalysis data. The formation of the SAO is explained by an energy budget analysis. The results show that the SAO in the UTLS is partly modified by the SSTs according to model simulations. The results may provide an important source for seasonal predictions of the surface weather.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Oscar Dimdore-Miles, Lesley Gray, Scott Osprey, Jon Robson, Rowan Sutton, and Bablu Sinha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4867–4893, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4867-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4867-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines interactions between variations in the strength of polar stratospheric winds and circulation in the North Atlantic in a climate model simulation. It finds that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) responds with oscillations to sets of consecutive Northern Hemisphere winters, which show all strong or all weak polar vortex conditions. The study also shows that a set of strong vortex winters in the 1990s contributed to the recent slowdown in the observed AMOC.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mengdie Xie, John C. Moore, Liyun Zhao, Michael Wolovick, and Helene Muri
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4581–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4581-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4581-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use data from six Earth system models to estimate Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) changes and its drivers under four different solar geoengineering methods. Solar dimming seems relatively more effective than marine cloud brightening or stratospheric aerosol injection at reversing greenhouse-gas-driven declines in AMOC. Geoengineering-induced AMOC amelioration is due to better maintenance of air–sea temperature differences and reduced loss of Arctic summer sea ice.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kai Qie, Wuke Wang, Wenshou Tian, Rui Huang, Mian Xu, Tao Wang, and Yifeng Peng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4393–4411, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4393-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We identify a significantly intensified upward motion over the tropical western Pacific (TWP) and an enhanced tropical upwelling in boreal winter during 1958–2017 due to the warming of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Our results suggest that more tropospheric trace gases over the TWP could be elevated to the lower stratosphere, which implies that the emission from the maritime continent plays a more important role in the stratospheric processes and the global climate.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Audrey Lecouffe, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Andrea Pazmiño, and Alain Hauchecorne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4187–4200, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4187-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4187-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a model developped at LATMOS (France) to analyze the behavior of the Antarctic polar vortex from 1979 to 2020 at 675 K, 550 K, and 475 K isentropic levels. We found that the vortex edge intensity is stronger during the September–October–November period, while its edge position is less extended during this period. The polar vortex is stronger and lasts longer during solar minimum years. Breakup dates of the polar vortex are linked to the ozone hole and maximum wind speed.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jan Clemens, Felix Ploeger, Paul Konopka, Raphael Portmann, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3841–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3841-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3841-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Highly polluted air flows from the surface to higher levels of the atmosphere during the Asian summer monsoon. At high levels, the air is trapped within eddies. Here, we study how air masses can leave the eddy within its cutoff, how they distribute, and how their chemical composition changes. We found evidence for transport from the eddy to higher latitudes over the North Pacific and even Alaska. During transport, trace gas concentrations within cutoffs changed gradually, showing steady mixing.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Yihang Hu, Wenshou Tian, Jiankai Zhang, Tao Wang, and Mian Xu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1575–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1575-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic stratospheric wave activities in September have been weakening significantly since the 2000s. Further analysis supports the finding that sea surface temperature (SST) trends over 20° N–70° S lead to the weakening of stratospheric wave activities, while the response of stratospheric wave activities to ozone recovery is weak. Thus, the SST trend should be taken into consideration when exploring the mechanism for the climate transition in the southern hemispheric stratosphere around 2000.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sheena Loeffel, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Thomas Reddmann, Frauke Fritsch, Stefan Versick, Gabriele Stiller, and Florian Haenel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1175–1193, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1175-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1175-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
SF6-derived trends of stratospheric AoA from observations and model simulations disagree in sign. SF6 experiences chemical degradation, which we explicitly integrate in a global climate model. In our simulations, the AoA trend changes sign when SF6 sinks are considered; thus, the process has the potential to reconcile simulated with observed AoA trends. We show that the positive AoA trend is due to the SF6 sinks themselves and provide a first approach for a correction to account for SF6 loss.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nicholas A. Davis, Patrick Callaghan, Isla R. Simpson, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 197–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-197-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-197-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Specified dynamics schemes attempt to constrain the atmospheric circulation in a climate model to isolate the role of transport in chemical variability, evaluate model physics, and interpret field campaign observations. We show that the specified dynamics scheme in CESM2 erroneously suppresses convection and induces circulation errors that project onto errors in tracers, even using the most optimal settings. Development of a more sophisticated scheme is necessary for future progress.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Cornelia Strube, Peter Preusse, Manfred Ern, and Martin Riese
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18641–18668, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18641-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18641-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
High gravity wave (GW) momentum fluxes in the lower stratospheric southern polar vortex around 60° S are still poorly understood. Few GW sources are found at these latitudes. We present a ray tracing case study on waves resolved in high-resolution global model temperatures southeast of New Zealand. We show that lateral propagation of more than 1000 km takes place below 20 km altitude, and a variety of orographic and non-orographic sources located north of 50° S generate the wave field.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Erika Brattich, Hongyu Liu, Bo Zhang, Miguel Ángel Hernández-Ceballos, Jussi Paatero, Darko Sarvan, Vladimir Djurdjevic, Laura Tositti, and Jelena Ajtić
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17927–17951, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17927-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17927-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we analyse the output of a chemistry and transport model together with observations of different meteorological and compositional variables to demonstrate the link between sudden stratospheric warming and transport of stratospheric air to the surface in the subpolar regions of Europe during the cold season. Our findings have particular implications for atmospheric composition since climate projections indicate more frequent sudden stratospheric warming under a warmer climate.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Liang Tang, Sheng-Yang Gu, and Xian-Kang Dou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17495–17512, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17495-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17495-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores the variation in the occurrence date, peak amplitude and wave period for eastward waves and the role of instability, background wind structure and the critical layer in eastward wave propagation and amplification.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marta Abalos, Natalia Calvo, Samuel Benito-Barca, Hella Garny, Steven C. Hardiman, Pu Lin, Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, Rolando Garcia, Clara Orbe, David Saint-Martin, Shingo Watanabe, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13571–13591, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13571-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13571-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), responsible for transporting mass, tracers and heat globally in the stratosphere, is evaluated in a set of state-of-the-art climate models. The acceleration of the BDC in response to increasing greenhouse gases is most robust in the lower stratosphere. At higher levels, the well-known inconsistency between model and observational BDC trends can be partly reconciled by accounting for limited sampling and large uncertainties in the observations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Zhihong Zhuo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, and Ulrich Cubasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13425–13442, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of volcanic eruptions varies with eruption season and latitude. This study simulated eruptions at different latitudes and in different seasons with a fully coupled climate model. The climate impacts of northern and southern hemispheric eruptions are reversed but are insensitive to eruption season. Results suggest that the regional climate impacts are due to the dynamical response of the climate system to radiative effects of volcanic aerosols and the subsequent regional feedbacks.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Min-Jee Kang and Hye-Yeong Chun
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9839–9857, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9839-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9839-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In winter 2019/20, the westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phase was disrupted again by easterly winds. It is found that strong Rossby waves from the Southern Hemisphere weaken the jet core in early stages, and strong mixed Rossby–gravity waves reverse the wind in later stages. Inertia–gravity waves and small-scale convective gravity waves also provide negative forcing. These strong waves are attributed to an anomalous wind profile, barotropic instability, and slightly strong convection.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Henning Franke, Ulrike Niemeier, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8615–8635, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8615-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol modification (SAM) can alter the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Our simulations with two different models show that the characteristics of the QBO response are primarily determined by the meridional structure of the aerosol-induced heating. Therefore, the QBO response to SAM depends primarily on the location of injection, while injection type and rate act to scale the specific response. Our results have important implications for evaluating adverse side effects of SAM.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mohamadou Diallo, Manfred Ern, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7515–7544, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7515-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7515-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Despite good agreement in the spatial structure, there are substantial differences in the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) and its modulations in the UTLS and upper stratosphere. The tropical upwelling is generally weaker in ERA5 than in ERAI due to weaker planetary and gravity wave breaking in the UTLS. Analysis of the BDC trend shows an acceleration of the BDC of about 1.5 % decade-1 due to the long-term intensification in wave breaking, consistent with climate predictions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andrew Orr, Hua Lu, Patrick Martineau, Edwin P. Gerber, Gareth J. Marshall, and Thomas J. Bracegirdle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7451–7472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7451-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7451-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Reanalysis datasets combine observations and weather forecast simulations to create our best estimate of the state of the atmosphere and are important for climate monitoring. Differences in the technical details of these products mean that they may give different results. This study therefore examined how changes associated with the so-called Antarctic ozone hole are represented, which is one of the most important climate changes in recent decades, and showed that they were broadly consistent.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tiehan Zhou, Kevin DallaSanta, Larissa Nazarenko, Gavin A. Schmidt, and Zhonghai Jin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7395–7407, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7395-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7395-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric radiative damping increases with rising CO2. Sensitivity experiments using the one-dimensional mechanistic models of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) indicate a shortening of the simulated QBO period due to the enhancing of the radiative damping. This result suggests that increasing radiative damping may play a role in determining the QBO period in a warming climate along with wave momentum flux entering the stratosphere and tropical vertical residual velocity.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Simone Dietmüller, Hella Garny, Roland Eichinger, and William T. Ball
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6811–6837, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6811-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6811-2021, 2021
Xiaolu Yan, Paul Konopka, Marius Hauck, Aurélien Podglajen, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6627–6645, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6627-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6627-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Inter-hemispheric transport is important for understanding atmospheric tracers because of the asymmetry in emissions between the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and Northern Hemisphere (NH). This study finds that the air masses from the NH extratropics to the atmosphere are about 5 times larger than those from the SH extratropics. The interplay between the Asian summer monsoon and westerly ducts triggers the cross-Equator transport from the NH to the SH in boreal summer and fall.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ioana Ivanciu, Katja Matthes, Sebastian Wahl, Jan Harlaß, and Arne Biastoch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5777–5806, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ozone hole has driven substantial dynamical changes in the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere over the past decades. This study separates the historical impacts of ozone depletion from those of rising levels of greenhouse gases and investigates how these impacts are captured in two types of climate models: one using interactive atmospheric chemistry and one prescribing the CMIP6 ozone field. The effects of ozone depletion are more pronounced in the model with interactive chemistry.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Luis F. Millán, Gloria L. Manney, and Zachary D. Lawrence
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5355–5376, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5355-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5355-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We assess how consistently reanalyses represent potential vorticity (PV) among each other. PV helps describe dynamical processes in the stratosphere because it acts approximately as a tracer of the movement of air parcels; it is extensively used to identify the location of the tropopause and to identify and characterize the stratospheric polar vortex. Overall, PV from all reanalyses agrees well with the reanalysis ensemble mean.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Ohad Harari, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Jian Rao, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Fiona M. O'Connor, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, and Sean Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3725–3740, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, and El Niño is the dominant mode of variability in the ocean–atmosphere system. The connection between El Niño and water vapor above ~ 17 km is unclear, with single-model studies reaching a range of conclusions. This study examines this connection in 12 different models. While there are substantial differences among the models, all models appear to capture the fundamental physical processes correctly.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Manuel Baumgartner, Ralf Weigel, Allan H. Harvey, Felix Plöger, Ulrich Achatz, and Peter Spichtinger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15585–15616, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15585-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15585-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The potential temperature is routinely used in atmospheric science. We review its derivation and suggest a new potential temperature, based on a temperature-dependent parameterization of the dry air's specific heat capacity. Moreover, we compare the new potential temperature to the common one and discuss the differences which become more important at higher altitudes. Finally, we indicate some consequences of using the new potential temperature in typical applications.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Edward J. Charlesworth, Ann-Kristin Dugstad, Frauke Fritsch, Patrick Jöckel, and Felix Plöger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15227–15245, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15227-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15227-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Modeling the stratosphere requires models with good representations of chemical transport. To do this, nearly all models divide the atmosphere into boxes. This creates some unwanted problems. However, the only other option is to divide the atmosphere into balloons, and this method is very complicated. Here, we use a model which uses this balloon-like method to estimate the impacts of this method on chemical transport. We find significant differences in sensitive regions of the stratosphere.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Min-Jee Kang, Hye-Yeong Chun, and Rolando R. Garcia
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14669–14693, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14669-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14669-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In winter 2015/16, the descent of the westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) jet was interrupted by easterly winds. We find that Rossby–gravity and inertia–gravity waves weaken the jet core in early stages, and small-scale convective gravity waves, as well as horizontal and vertical components of Rossby waves, reverse the wind sign in later stages. The strong negative wave forcing in the tropics results from the enhanced convection, an anomalous wind profile, and barotropic instability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sabine Haase, Jaika Fricke, Tim Kruschke, Sebastian Wahl, and Katja Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14043–14061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14043-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone depletion over Antarctica was shown to influence the tropospheric jet in the Southern Hemisphere. We investigate the atmospheric response to ozone depletion comparing climate model ensembles with interactive and prescribed ozone fields. We show that allowing feedbacks between ozone chemistry and model physics as well as including asymmetries in ozone leads to a strengthened ozone depletion signature in the stratosphere but does not significantly affect the tropospheric jet position.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Arata Amemiya and Kaoru Sato
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13857–13876, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13857-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13857-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The spatial pattern of subseasonal variability of the Asian monsoon anticyclone (AMA) is analyzed using long-term reanalysis data, integrating two different views using potential vorticity and the geopotential height anomaly. This study provides a link between two existing description of the Asian monsoon anticyclone, which is important for the understanding of the whole life cycle of its characteristic subseasonal variability pattern.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Daniele Minganti, Simon Chabrillat, Yves Christophe, Quentin Errera, Marta Abalos, Maxime Prignon, Douglas E. Kinnison, and Emmanuel Mahieu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12609–12631, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12609-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12609-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The climatology of the N2O transport budget in the stratosphere is studied in the transformed Eulerian mean framework across a variety of datasets: a chemistry climate model, a chemistry transport model driven by four reanalyses and a chemical reanalysis. The impact of vertical advection on N2O agrees well in the datasets, but horizontal mixing presents large differences above the Antarctic and in the whole Northern Hemisphere.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andrew Orr, J. Scott Hosking, Aymeric Delon, Lars Hoffmann, Reinhold Spang, Tracy Moffat-Griffin, James Keeble, Nathan Luke Abraham, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12483–12497, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12483-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12483-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) are clouds found in the Antarctic winter stratosphere and are implicated in the formation of the ozone hole. These clouds can sometimes be formed or enhanced by mountain waves, formed as air passes over hills or mountains. However, this important mechanism is missing in coarse-resolution climate models, limiting our ability to simulate ozone. This study examines an attempt to include the effects of mountain waves and their impact on PSCs and ozone.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Maartje Sanne Kuilman, Qiong Zhang, Ming Cai, and Qin Wen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12409–12430, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12409-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12409-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we quantify the temperature changes in the middle atmosphere due to different feedback processes using the climate feedback response analysis method. We have found that the change due to the increase in CO2 alone cools the middle atmosphere. The combined effect of the different feedbacks causes the atmosphere to cool less. The ozone feedback is the most important feedback process, while the cloud, water vapour and albedo feedback play only a minor role.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Silvia Bucci, Bernard Legras, Pasquale Sellitto, Francesco D'Amato, Silvia Viciani, Alessio Montori, Antonio Chiarugi, Fabrizio Ravegnani, Alexey Ulanovsky, Francesco Cairo, and Fred Stroh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12193–12210, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12193-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12193-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents and evaluates a transport analysis method to study the convective injection of air in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere of the Asian monsoon anticyclone region. The approach is thereby used to analyse the trace gas data collected during the StratoClim aircraft campaign. The results showed that fresh convective air can be injected fast at a high level of the atmosphere (above 17 km), with potential impacts on the stratospheric chemistry of the Northern Hemisphere.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jessica Oehrlein, Gabriel Chiodo, and Lorenzo M. Polvani
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10531–10544, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10531-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10531-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Winter winds in the stratosphere 10–50 km above the surface impact climate at the surface. Prior studies suggest that this interaction between the stratosphere and the surface is affected by ozone. We compare two ways of including ozone in computer simulations of climate. One method is more realistic but more expensive. We find that the method of including ozone in simulations affects the surface climate when the stratospheric winds are unusually weak but not when they are unusually strong.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Aurélien Podglajen, Albert Hertzog, Riwal Plougonven, and Bernard Legras
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9331–9350, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9331-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Thanks to the increase in resolution, numerical weather prediction models resolve a growing fraction of the gravity wave (GW) spectrum. Here, we assess the representation of Lagrangian GW fluctuations by comparing trajectories in the models to long-duration balloon observations. Most characteristics of the observed GW spectrum, such as near-inertial oscillations, are qualitatively present. However, the variability remains underestimated, emphasizing the continuous need for GW parameterizations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Cited articles
Abhik, S. and Hendon, H. H.: Influence of the QBO on the MJO during coupled
model multiweek forecasts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 9213–9221,
2019.
Adams, B. J., Mann, M., and Ammann, C.: Proxy evidence for an El Niño-like
response to volcanic forcing, Nature, 426, 274–278, 2003.
Andrews, M., Knight, J., and Gray, L.: A simulated lagged response of the
North Atlantic Oscillation to the solar cycle over the period 1960–2009,
Environ. Res. Lett., 10, L054022, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054022, 2015.
Agnet, J. G., Rozanov, E. V., Muthers, S., Peter, T., Brönnimann, S., Arfeuille, F., Beer, J., Shapiro, A. I., Raible, C. C., Steinhilber, F., and Schmutz, W. K.: Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar
minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 40, 4420–4425, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50806, 2003.
Anstey, J. A. and Shepherd, T. G.: High-latitude influence of the
Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 1–21, 2014.
Anstey, J. A., Simpson, I. R., Richter, J. H., Naoe, H., Taguchi, M., Serva,
F., Gray, L. J., Butchart, N., Hamilton, K., Osprey, S., Bellprat, O., Braesicke, P., Bushell, A. C., Cagnazzo, C., Chen, C.-C., Chun, H.-Y., Garcia, R. R., Holt, L., Kawatani, Y., Kerzenmacher, T., Kim, Y.-H., Lott, F., McLandress, C., Scinocca, J., Stockdale, T. N., Versick, S., Watanabe, S., Yoshida, K., and Yukimoto, S.: Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a
multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., Special Section QBO Modelling Intercomparison, 1–26,
2021.
Athanasiadis, P. J., Yeager, S., Kwon, Y. O., Bellucci, A., Smith D. W., and Tibaldi S.: Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 3, 20, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0120-6, 2020.
Ayarzagüena, B., Polvani, L. M., Langematz, U., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Butchart, N., Dameris, M., Deushi, M., Hardiman, S. C., Jöckel, P., Klekociuk, A., Marchand, M., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O., O'Connor, F. M., Oman, L. D., Plummer, D. A., Revell, L., Rozanov, E., Saint-Martin, D., Scinocca, J., Stenke, A., Stone, K., Yamashita, Y., Yoshida, K., and Zeng, G.: No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11277–11287, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, 2018a.
Ayarzagüena, B., Barriopedro, D., Garrido-Perez, J. M., Abalos, M., de
la Cámara, A., García-Herrera, R., Calvo, N., and Ordóñez, C.: Stratospheric connection
to the abrupt end of the 2016/2017 Iberian drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 12639–12646, 2018b.
Ayarzagüena, B. , Charlton-Perez, A. J., Butler, A. H., Hitchcock, P., Simpson, I. R., Polvani, L. M., Butchart, N., Gerber, E. P., Gray, L., Hassler, B., Lin, P., Lott, F., Manzini, E., Mizuta, R., Orbe, C., Osprey, S., Saint-Martin, D., Sigmond, M., Taguchi, M., Volodin, E. M., and Watanabe, S.: Uncertainty in the response of stratospheric sudden
warmings and stratosphere-troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2
concentrations in CMIP6 models, J. Geophys. Res., 126, e2019JD032345,
2020.
Baehr, J., Fröhlich, K., Botzet, M., Domeisen, D. I. V., Kornblueh, L.,
Notz, D., Piontek, R., Pohlmann, H., Tietsche, S., and Müller, W. A.: The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal
prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model, Clim. Dynam., 44, 2723–2735, 2015.
Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation
from the stratosphere to the troposphere, J. Geophys. Res., 104,
30937–30946, 1999.
Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous
Weather Regimes, Science, 294, 581–584, 2001.
Baldwin M. P., Stephenson, D. B., Thompson, D. W. J., Dunkerton, T. J., Charlton, A. J., and O'Neill, A.: Stratospheric Memory and
Skill of Extended-Range Weather Forecasts, Science, 301, 636–640, 2003.
Baldwin M. P., Birner, T., Brasseur, G., Burrows, J., Butchart, N., Garcia, R., Geller, M., Gray, L., Hamilton, K., Harnik, N., Hegglin, M. I., Langematz, U., Robock, A., Sato, K., and Scaife, A. A.: 100 Years of Progress in Understanding the
Stratosphere and Mesosphere, Meteor. Mon., 59, 27.1–27.62, 2019.
Baldwin, M. P., Ayarzagüena, B., Birner, T., Butchart, N., Butler, A.
H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C. I., Garny, H., Gerber, E. P., Hegglin, M. I., Langematz, U., and Pedatella, N. M.: Sudden stratospheric warmings, Rev. Geophys., 59, e2020RG000708, 2021.
Balmaseda, M. A., Ferranti, L., Molteni, F., and Palmer, T. N.: Impact of 2007
and 2008 Arctic ice anomalies on the atmospheric circulation: Implications
for long-range predictions, Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc., 136, 1655–1664, 2010.
Banerjee, A., Fyfe, J. C., Polvani, L. M., Waugh, D., and Chang, K. L.: A pause in Southern Hemisphere circulation trends due to the Montreal Protocol, Nature, 579, 544–548, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2120-4, 2020.
Barnes, E. A., Barnes, N. W., and Polvani, L. M.: Delayed Southern Hemisphere
climate change induced by stratospheric ozone recovery, as projected by the
CMIP5 models, 27, 852–867, 2014.
Barnes, E. A., Samarasinghe, S. M., Ebert-Uphoff, I., and Furtado, J. C.:
Tropospheric and stratospheric causal pathways between the MJO and NAO,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 9356–9371, 2019.
Beagley, S. R., de Grandpre', J., Koshyk, J. N., McFarlane, N. A., and Shepherd, T. G.: Radiative-dynamical climatology of the first-generation Canadian
middle atmosphere model, Atmos. Ocean, 35, 293–331, 1997.
Bittner, M., Timmreck, C., Schmidt, H., Toohey, M., and Krüger, K.: The
impact of wave-mean flow interaction on the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex
after tropical volcanic eruptions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 5281–5297, 2016.
Blackport, R. and Screen, J. A.: Weakened evidence for mid-latitude impacts of
Arctic warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 1065–1666, 2020.
Boer, G. J. and Hamilton, K.: QBO influence on extratropical predictive skill, Clim. Dynam., 31, 987–1000, 2008.
Boville, B. A.: The Influence of the Polar Night Jet on the Tropospheric
Circulation in a GCM, J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 1132–1142, 1984.
Butchart, N., Austin, J., Knight, J. R., Scaife, A. A., and Gallani, M. L.:
The Response of the Stratospheric Climate to Projected Changes in the
Concentrations of Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases from 1992 to 2051, J. Climate, 13, 2142–2159, 2000.
Butler A. H. and Polvani, L. M.: El Niño, La Niña, and stratospheric
sudden warmings: A re-evaluation in light of the observational record,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L13807, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048084, 2011.
Butler, A. H., Polvani, L. M., and Deser, C.: Separating the stratospheric and
tropospheric pathways of El Niño-Southern Oscillation teleconnections,
Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 024014, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/2/024014, 2014.
Butler A. H., Arribas, A., Athanassiadou, M., Baehr, J., Calvo, N., Charlton-Perez, A., Deque, M., Domeisen, D. I. V., Fröhlich, K., Hendon, H.,
Imada, Y., Ishii, M., Iza, M., Karpechko, A. Y., Kumar, A., Maclachlan, C.,
Merryfield, W. J., Muller, W. A., O'Neill, A., Scaife, A. A., Scinocca, J., Sigmond, M., Stockdale, T. N., and Yasuda, T.: The Climate-system Historical Forecast
Project: Do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate
predictions in boreal winter?, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 1413–1427,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2743, 2016.
Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A., Domeisen, D. I. V., Simpson, I. R., and Sjoberg J.: The predictability of Northern Hemisphere final stratospheric
warmings and their surface impacts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 10578–10588,
2019a.
Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A., Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C., Gerber, E. P.,
Hitchcock, P., Karpechko, A.-Y., Maycock, A. C., Sigmond, M., Simpson, I., and Son, S.-W.: Sub-seasonal Predictability and the Stratosphere, in: Chapter 11, The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting, 223–241, 2019b.
Butler, A. H., Lawrence, Z. D., Lee, S. H., Lillo, S. P., and Long, C. S.:
Differences between the 2018 and 2019 stratospheric polar vortex split
events, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 3503–3521, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3858, 2020.
Byrne, N. J. and Shepherd, T. G.: Seasonal persistence of circulation
anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere and its implications for
the troposphere, J. Climate, 31, 3467–3483, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0557.1,
2018.
Byrne, N. J., Shepherd, T. G., Woollings, T., and Plumb, R. A.: Non-stationarity
in Southern Hemisphere climate variability associated with the seasonal
breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex, J. Climate, 30, 7125–7139, 2017.
Byrne, N. J., Shepherd, T. G., and Polichtchouk, I.: Subseasonal-to-seasonal
predictability of the Southern Hemisphere eddy-driven jet during austral
spring and early summer, J. Geophys. Res., 124, 6841–6855, 2019.
Cagnazzo, C. and Manzini, E.: Impact of the stratosphere on the winter tropospheric teleconnections between ENSO and the North Atlantic and European Region, J. Climate, 22, 1223–1238, 2009.
Cai, M., Yu, Y., Deng, Y., van den Dool, H. M., Ren, R., Saha, S., Wu, X., and Huang, J.: Feeling the pulse of the stratosphere: an emerging opportunity for
predicting continental-scale cold-air outbreaks 1 month in advance, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 1475–1489, 2016.
Cassou, C.: Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden–Julian Oscillation
and the North Atlantic Oscillation, Nature, 455, 523–527, 2008.
Ceppi, P. and Shepherd, T. G.: The role of the stratospheric polar vortex for
the austral jet response to greenhouse gas forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46,
6972–6979, 2019.
Charlton, A. J., O'Neill, A., Stephenson, D. B., Lahoz, W. A., and Baldwin,
M. P.: Can knowledge of the state of the stratosphere be used to improve
statistical forecasts of the troposphere?, Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc., 129, 3205–3224, 2003.
Charlton-Perez, A. J., Baldwin, M. P., Birner, T., Black, R. X., Butler, A. H., Calvo, N., Davis, N. A., Gerber, E. P., Gillett, N., Hardiman, S., Kim, J., Krüger, K., Lee, Y.-Y., Manzini, E., McDaniel, B. A., Polvani, L., Reichler, T., Shaw, T. A., Sigmond, M., Son, S.-W., Toohey, M., Wilcox, L., Yoden, S., Christiansen, B., Lott, F., Shindell, D., Yukimoto, S., and Watanabe, S.: On the lack of stratospheric dynamical
variability in low-top versions of the CMIP5 models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 2494–2505, 2013.
Charlton-Perez, A. J., Ferranti, L., and Lee, R. W.: The influence of the
stratospheric state on North Atlantic weather regimes, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 144, 1140–1151, 2018.
Charney, J. G. and Drazin, P. G.: Propagation of planetary-scale disturbances from the lower into the upper atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 66, 83–109, https://doi.org/10.1029/JZ066i001p00083, 1961.
Chiodo, G., Oehrlein, J., Polvani, L. M., Fyfe, J. C., and Smith, A. K.: Insignificant influence of
the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation, Nat. Geosci., 12,
94–99, 2019.
Choi, J. and Son, S.-W.: Stratospheric initial condition for skillful
surface prediction in the ECMWF model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 21, 12556–12564, 2019.
Christiansen B.: Downward propagation and statistical forecast of the
near-surface weather, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 110, D14104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005431, 2005.
Cohen, J. and Entekhabi, D.: Eurasian snow cover variability and northern
hemisphere climate variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 345–348, 1999.
Cohen, J. and Jones, J.: A new index for more accurate winter predictions,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L21701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049626, 2011.
Cohen, J., Furtado, J. C., Jones, J., Barlow, M., Whittleston, D., and Entekhabi, D.: Linking Siberian snow cover to precursors of stratospheric variability, J. Climate, 27, 5422–5432, 2014.
Crutzen, P. J.: Estimates of Possible Variations in Total Ozone Due to Natural
Causes and Human Activities, Ambio, 3, 201–210, 1974.
Dai, A. and Song, M.: Little influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude
climate, Nat. Clim. Chang., 10, 231–237, 2020.
Davies, P. A., McCarthy, M., Christidis, N., Dunstone, N., Fereday, D.,
Kendon, M., Knight, J. R., Scaife, A. A., and Sexton, D.: The wet and stormy UK
winter of 2019/2020, Weather, 76, 396–402, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3955, 2021.
Domeisen, D. I. V.: Estimating the Frequency of Sudden Stratospheric Warming
Events From Surface Observations of the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 3180–3194, 2019.
Domeisen, D. I. V. and Butler, A. H.: Stratospheric drivers of extreme
events at the Earth's surface, Commun. Earth Environ., 59, 1–8, 2020.
Domeisen, D. I. V., Sun, L., and Chen, G.: The role of synoptic eddies in
the tropospheric response to stratospheric variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1–5, 2013.
Domeisen, D. I. V., Badin, G., and Koszalka, I. M.: How Predictable Are the
Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and
Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere, J. Climate, 31,
997–1014, 2018.
Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C. I., and Butler, A. H.: The Teleconnection
of El Niño Southern Oscillation to the Stratosphere, Rev. Geophys., 57, 5–47, 2019.
Domeisen, D. I. V., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Ayarzaguena, B.,
Baldwin, M. P., Dunn-Sigouin, E., Furtado, J. C., Garfinkel, C. I., Hitchcock, P., Karpechko, A. Y., Kim, H., Knight, J., Lang, A. L., Lim, E.-P., Marshall, A., Roff, G., Schwartz, C., Simpson, I. R., Son, S.-W., and Taguchi, M.: The role of
stratosphere-troposphere coupling in sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction. 1.
Predictability in the Stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 125, e2019JD030920, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030923, 2020a.
Domeisen, D. I. V., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Ayarzaguena, B.,
Baldwin, M. P., Dunn-Sigouin, E., Furtado, J. C., Garfinkel, C. I., Hitchcock, P., Karpechko, A. Y., Kim, H., Knight, J., Lang, A. L., Lim, E.-P., Marshall, A., Roff, G.,
Schwartz, C., Simpson, I. R., Son, S.-W., and Taguchi, M.: The role of
stratosphere-troposphere coupling in sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction. 2.
Predictability arising from stratosphere-troposphere coupling, J. Geophys.
Res., 125, e2019JD030923, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030923, 2020b.
Douville, H.: Stratospheric polar vortex influence on Northern Hemisphere
winter climate variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L18703, 2009.
Dunstone, N., Smith, D., Scaife, A., Hermanson, L., Eade, R., Robinson, N.,
Andrews, M., and Knight, J.: Skilful predictions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation one year ahead, Nat. Geosci., 9, 809–814, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2824, 2016.
Eade R., Smith, D., Scaife, A. A., and Wallace, E.: Do seasonal to decadal
climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world?,
Geophys. Res. Lett, 41, 5620–5628, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061146, 2014.
Ebdon, R. A.: The quasi-biennial oscillation and its association with tropospheric circulation patterns, Meteor. Mag., 104, 282–297, 1975.
Farman, J., Gardiner, B., and Shanklin, J.: Large losses of total ozone in
Antarctica reveal seasonal
Fels, S. B.: Radiative–Dynamical Interactions in the Middle Atmosphere,
Adv. Geophys., 28, 277–300, 1985.
Fereday, D. R., Maidens, A., Arribas, A., Scaife, A. A., and Knight, J. R.: Seasonal forecasts of northern hemisphere winter
2009/10, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 034031, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034031, 2012.
Fereday, D. R., Chadwick, R., Knight, J. R., and Scaife, A. A.: Tropical rainfall drives stronger future ENSO-NAO
teleconnection in CMIP5 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL088664, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088664, 2020.
Fletcher, C. G., Hardiman, S. C., Kushner, P. J., and Cohen, J.: The dynamical
response to snow cover perturbations in a large ensemble of atmospheric GCM
integrations, J. Climate, 22, 1208–1222, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2505.1,
2009.
Folland, C. K., Scaife, A. A., Lindesay, J., and Stephenson, D. B.: How potentially predictable is northern European winter climate a season ahead?, Int. J. Climatol., 32, 801–818, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2314, 2012.
Furtado, J. C., Cohen, J. L., Butler, A. H., Riddle, E. E., and Kumar, A.: Eurasian snow cover
variability and links to winter climate in the CMIP5 models, Clim. Dynam., 45, 2591–2605, 2015.
Garfinkel, C. I. and Schwartz, C.: MJO-related tropical convection anomalies
lead to more accurate stratospheric vortex variability in subseasonal
forecast models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 10054–10062, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074470, 2017.
Garfinkel, C. I., Butler, A. H., Waugh, D. W., Hurwitz, M. M., and Polvani, L. M.:
Why might stratospheric sudden warmings occur with similar frequency in El
Nino and La Nina winters?, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 117, D19106,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017777, 2012a.
Garfinkel, C. I., Feldstein, S. B., Waugh, D. W., Yoo, C., and Lee, S.:
Observed connection between stratospheric sudden warmings and the
Madden-Julian Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L18807, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053144, 2012b.
Garfinkel, C. I., Son, S.-W., Song, K., Aquila, V., and Oman, L. D.:
Stratospheric variability contributed to and sustained the recent hiatus in
Eurasian winter warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 374–382, 2017.
Garfinkel, C. I., Schwartz, C., Domeisen, D. I. V., Son, S.-W., Butler, A. H., and
White, I. P.: Extratropical atmospheric predictability from the Quasi-Biennial
Oscillation in subseasonal forecast models, J. Geophys. Res., 123,
7855–7866, 2018.
Garfinkel, C. I., Schwartz, C., Butler, A. H., Domeisen, D. I. V., Son,
S.-W., and White, I. P.: Weakening of the Teleconnection From El
Niño–Southern Oscillation to the Arctic Stratosphere Over the Past Few
Decades: What Can Be Learned From Subseasonal Forecast Models?, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 7683–7696, 2019.
Garfinkel, C. I., Schwartz, C., White, I. P., and Rao, J.: Predictability of the early winter Arctic oscillation from autumn Eurasian snowcover in subseasonal forecast models, Clim. Dynam., 55, 961–974, 2020.
Gerber, E. P., Butler, A., Calvo, N., Charlton-Perez, A., Giorgetta, M.,
Manzini, E., Perlwitz, J., Polvani, L. M., Sassi, F., Scaife, A. A., Shaw, T. A.,
Son, S.-W., and Watanabe, S.: Assessing and Understanding the Impact of
Stratospheric Dynamics and Variability on the Earth System, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 845–859, 2012.
Givon, Y., Garfinkel, C. I., and White, I.: Transient extratropical response
to solar ultraviolet radiation in the Northern Hemisphere winter, J. Climate, 34, 3367–3383, 2021.
Graversen, R. G. and Christiansen, B.: Downward propagation from the
stratosphere to the troposphere: A comparison of the two hemispheres, J.
Geophys. Res. Atmos., 108, 4780, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD004077, 2003.
Gray, L. J., Beer, J., Geller, M., Haigh, J. D., Lockwood, M., Matthes, K., Cubasch, U., Fleitmann, D., Harrison, G., Hood, L., Luterbacher, J., Meehl, G. A., Shindell, D., van Geel, B., and White, W.: Solar influences on climate, Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009RG000282, 2010.
Gray, L. J., Scaife, A. A., Mitchell, D. M., Osprey, S., Ineson, S.,
Hardiman, S., Butchart, N., Knight, J., Sutton, R., and Kodera, K.: A lagged
response to the 11 year solar cycle in observed winter Atlantic/European
weather patterns, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 13405–13420, 2013.
Gray, L. J., Anstey, J. A., Kawatani, Y., Lu, H., Osprey, S., and Schenzinger, V.: Surface impacts of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8227–8247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8227-2018, 2018.
Hall, R. J., Scaife, A. A., Hanna, E., Jones, J. M., and Erdélyi, R.:
Simple statistical probabilistic forecasts of the winter NAO, Weather Forecast., 32, 1585–1601, 2017.
Harari, O., Garfinkel, C. I., Ziskin Ziv, S., Morgenstern, O., Zeng, G., Tilmes, S., Kinnison, D., Deushi, M., Jöckel, P., Pozzer, A., O'Connor, F. M., and Davis, S.: Influence of Arctic stratospheric ozone on surface climate in CCMI models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9253–9268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9253-2019, 2019.
Hardiman, S. C., Scaife, A. A., Dunstone, N. J., and Wang, L.:
Subseasonal vacillations in the winter stratosphere, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
47, e2020GL087766, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087766, 2020a.
Hardiman, S. C., Dunstone, N. J., Scaife, A. A., Smith, D. M., Knight, J.
R., Davies, P., Claus, M., and Greatbatch, R. J.:
Predictability of European winter 2019/20: Indian Ocean dipole impacts on
the NAO, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 2020, e1005, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1005, 2020b.
Hardiman, S. C., Butchart, N., Charlton-Perez, A. J.,
Shaw, T. A., Akiyoshi, H., Baumgaertner, A., Bekki, S.,
Braesicke, P., Chipperfield, M., Dameris, M., Garcia, R. R.,
Michou, M., Pawson, S., Rozanov, E., and Shibata, K.: Improved
predictability of the troposphere using stratospheric final warmings, J.
Geophys. Res., 116, D18113, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD015914, 2011.
Harnik N.: Observed stratospheric downward reflection and its relation to
upward pulses of wave activity, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D08120, https://doi.org/2008JD010493, 2009.
Harnik, N. and Lindzen, R. S.: The effect of reflecting surfaces on the
vertical structure and variability of stratospheric planetary waves, J.
Atmos. Sci., 58, 2872–2894, 2001.
Haynes, P. H., McIntyre, M. E., Shepherd, T. G., Marks, C. J., and Shine,
K. P.: On the “Downward Control” of Extratropical Diabatic Circulations by
Eddy-Induced Mean Zonal Forces, J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 651–678, 1991.
Haynes, P., Hitchcock, P., Hitchman, M., Yoden, S., Hendon, H., Kiladis, G.,
Kodera, K., and Simpson, I.: The influence of the stratosphere on the tropical
troposphere, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 99, 803–845, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2021-040, 2021.
Henderson, G. R., Peings, Y., Furtado, J. C., and Kushner, P. J.: Snow-atmosphere coupling in
the northern hemisphere, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 954–963, 2018.
Hendon, H. H. and Abhik, S.: Differences in vertical structure of the
Madden-Julian oscillation associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 4419–4428, 2018.
Hendon, H. H., Lim, E.-P., and Abhik, S.: Impact of Interannual Ozone
Variations on the Downward Coupling of the 2002 Southern Hemisphere
Stratospheric Warming, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, 1–16,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032952, 2020.
Hermanson L., Eade, R., Robinson, N. H., Andrews, M. B., Knight, J. R.,
Scaife, A. A., and Smith, D. M.: Forecast cooling of the Atlantic subpolar gyre and
associated impacts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5167–5174, 2014.
Hitchcock, P. and Simpson, I. R.: The Downward Influence of Stratospheric
Sudden Warmings, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 3856–3876, 2014.
Hitchcock, P. and Haynes, P. H.: Stratospheric control of planetary waves,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 11884–11892, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071372, 2016.
Hitchcock, P., Shepherd, T.G., Taguchi, M., Yoden, S., and Noguchi, S.:
Lower-stratospheric radiative damping and Polar-night Jet Oscillation
events, J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 1391–1408, 2013.
Holton, J. R. and Tan, H.-C.: The influence of the equatorial quasi-biennial
oscillation on the global circulation at 50 mb, J. Atmos. Sci., 37,
2200–2208, 1980.
Honda, M., Inoue, J., and Yamane, S.: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima
on anomalously cold Eurasian winters, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL037079, 2009.
Huebener, H., Cubasch, U., Langematz, U., Spangehl, T., Niehörster, F., Fast, I., and
Kunze, M.: Ensemble climate simulations using a fully coupled
ocean–troposphere–stratosphere general circulation model, Phil. Trans. R.
Soc. A., 365, 2089–2101, 2007.
Hurwitz, M. M., Newman, P. A., and Garfinkel, C. I.: On the influence of
North Pacific sea surface temperature on the Arctic winter climate, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D19110, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017819, 2012.
Ineson, S. and Scaife, A. A.: The role of the stratosphere in the European
climate response to El Nino, Nat. Geosci., 2, 32–36, 2009.
Ineson S., Scaife, A. A., Knight, J. R., Manners, J. C., Dunstone, N. J., Gray, L. J.,
and Haigh, J. D.: Solar Forcing of Winter Climate Variability in the Northern
Hemisphere, Nat. Geosci., 4, 753–757, 2011.
Ineson, S., Maycock, A., Gray, L. J., Scaife, A. A., Dunstone, N. J., Harder, J. W., Knight, J. R., Lockwood, M., Manners, J. C., and Wood, R. A.: Regional climate impacts of a possible
future grand solar minimum, Nat. Commun., 6, 7535, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8535, 2015.
Inoue, M., Takahashi, M., and Naoe, H.: Relationship between the stratospheric
quasi-biennial oscillation and tropospheric circulation in northern autumn,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D24115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016040, 2011.
Jain, S., Scaife, A. A., and Mitra, A. K.: Skill of Indian summer monsoon
rainfall prediction in multiple seasonal prediction systems, Clim. Dynam., 52,
5291–5301, 2019.
Jaiser, R., Dethloff, K., and Handorf, D: Stratospheric response to arctic sea ice
retreat and associated planetary wave propagation changes, Tellus A., 65, 19375, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.19375, 2013.
Jia, L., Yang, X., Vecchi, G., Gudgel, R., Delworth, T., Fueglistaler, S.,
Lin, P., Scaife, A. A., Underwood, S., and Lin, S.: Seasonal Prediction
Skill of Northern Extratropical Surface Temperature Driven by the
Stratosphere, J. Climate, 30, 4463–4475, 2017.
Johnson, S. J., Stockdale, T. N., Ferranti, L., Balmaseda, M. A., Molteni, F., Magnusson, L., Tietsche, S., Decremer, D., Weisheimer, A., Balsamo, G., Keeley, S. P. E., Mogensen, K., Zuo, H., and Monge-Sanz, B. M.: SEAS5: the new ECMWF seasonal forecast system, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1087–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1087-2019, 2019.
Joshi, M. M., Charlton, A. J., and Scaife, A. A.: On the influence of
stratospheric water vapor changes on the tropospheric circulation, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 33, L09806, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025983, 2006.
Jucker, M. and Reichler, T.: Dynamical precursors for statistical
prediction of stratospheric sudden warming events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 13124–13132, 2018.
Jucker, M., Reichler, T., and Waugh, D. W.: How frequent are Antarctic
sudden stratospheric warmings in present and future climate?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48,
e2021GL093215, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093215, 2021.
Kang, I. S., Kug, J. S., Lim, M. J., and Choi, D. H.: Impact of transient eddies on
extratropical seasonal-mean predictability in DEMETER models, Clim. Dynam., 37, 509–519, 2011a.
Kang, S. M., Polvani, L. M., Fyfe, J. C., and Sigmond, M.: Impact of Polar Ozone
Depletion on Subtropical Precipitation, Science, 332, 951–954, 2011b.
Karpechko, A. Y.: Predictability of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in the
ECMWF Extended-Range Forecast System, Mon. Wea. Rev., 146, 1063–1075,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0317.1, 2018.
Karpechko, A. Y. and Manzini, E.: Stratospheric influence on tropospheric
climate change in the Northern Hemisphere, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D05133,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017036, 2012.
Karpechko, A., Gillett, N. P., Marshall, G. J., and Scaife, A. A.: Stratospheric
influence on circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere troposphere in
coupled climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20806, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035354, 2008.
Karpechko, A. Y., Perlwitz, J., and Manzini, E.: A model study of
tropospheric impacts of the Arctic ozone depletion 2011, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 7999–8014, 2014.
Karpechko, A. Y., Hitchcock, P., Peters, D. H. W., and Schneidereit, A.:
Predictability of downward propagation of sudden stratospheric warmings,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143, 1459–1470, 2017.
Karpechko, A. Y., Charlton-Perez, A., Balmaseda, M., Tyrrell, N., and Vitart, F.:
Predicting sudden stratospheric warming 2018 and its climate impacts with a
multimodel ensemble, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 13538–13546, 2018.
Karpechko, A. Y., Tyrrell, N. L., and Rast, S.: Sensitivity of QBO teleconnection to
model circulation biases, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 147, 2147–2159, 2021.
Kautz, L. A., Polichtchouk, I., Birner, T., Garny, H., and Pinto, J. G.:
Enhanced extended-range predictability of the 2018 late-winter Eurasian cold
spell due to the stratosphere, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1040–1055,
2019.
Kidston, J., Scaife, A. A., Hardiman, S. C., Mitchell, D. M., Butchart, N., Baldwin, M.
P., and Gray, L. J.: Stratospheric influence on tropospheric jet
streams, storm tracks and surface weather, Nat. Geosci., 8, 433–440,
2015.
Kim, B. M., Son, S. W., Min, S. K., Jeong, J. H., Kim, S. J., Zhang, X., Shim, T., and Yoon, J. H.: Weakening of the stratospheric polar
vortex by Arctic sea-ice loss, Nat. Comm., 5, 4646, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms5646, 2014.
Kim, H., Caron, J. M., Richter, J. H., and Simpson, I. R.: The lack of
QBO-MJO connection in CMIP6 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47,
e2020GL087295, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087295, 2020.
King, M. P., Hell, M., and Keenlyside, N.: Investigation of the atmospheric
mechanisms related to the autumn sea ice and winter circulation link in the
Northern Hemisphere, Clim. Dynam., 46, 1185–1195, 2016.
King, A. D., Butler, A. H., Jucker, M., Earl, N. O., and Rudeva, I.: Observed
relationships between sudden stratospheric warmings and European climate
extremes, J. Geophys. Res., 124, 13943–13961, 2019.
Knight, J., Scaife, A., Bett, P. E., Collier, T., Dunstone, N., Gordon, M., Hardiman, S., Hermanson, L., Ineson, S., Kay, G., McLean, P., Pilling, C., Smith, D., Stringer, N., Thornton, H., and Walker B.: Predictability of European winters 2017/2018 and
2018/2019: Contrasting Influences from the Tropics and Stratosphere, Atmos.
Sci. Lett., e1009, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1009, 2020.
Kodera, K.: On the origin and nature of the interannual variability of the
winter stratospheric circulation in the northern hemisphere, J. Geophys.
Res., 100, 14077–14087, 1995.
Kodera, K. and Kuroda, Y.: Dynamical response to the solar cycle, J. Geophys.
Res., 107, 4749, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002224, 2002.
Kodera K. and Mukougawa, H.: Eurasian Cold Surges Triggered by the Nonlinear Reflection of Stratospheric Planetary Waves in December 2012, SOLA, 13, 140–145, https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2017-026, 2017.
Kodera, K., Yamazaki, K., Chiba, M., and Shibata, K.: Downward propagation of
upper stratospheric mean zonal wind perturbation to the troposphere,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 17, 1263–1266, 1990.
Kodera, K., Mukougawa, H., and Itoh, S.: Tropospheric impact of reflected
planetary waves from the stratosphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L16806,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034575, 2008.
Kolstad, E. W. and Screen, J. A.: Non-stationary relationship between
autumn Arctic sea ice and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 7583–7591, 2019.
Kretschmer, M., Coumou, D., Donges, J. F., and Runge, J.: Using causal effect
networks to analyze different Arctic drivers of midlatitude winter
circulation, J. Climate, 29, 4069–4081, 2016.
Kretschmer, M., Zappa, G., and Shepherd, T. G.: The role of Barents–Kara sea ice loss in projected polar vortex changes, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 715–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020, 2020.
Kretschmer, M., Adams, S. V., Arribas, A., Prudden, R., Robinson, N.,
Saggioro, E., and Shepherd, T. G.: Quantifying causal pathways of
teleconnections, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 102, E2247–E2263, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0117.1, 2021.
Kuhn, T. S.: The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL, USA, 1970.
Kunz, T. and Greatbatch, R. J.: On the Northern Annular Mode Surface
Signal Associated with Stratospheric Variability, J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 2103–2118, 2013.
Kuroda, Y.: Role of the stratosphere on the predictability of medium-range
weather forecast: A case study of winter 2003–2004, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L19701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034902, 2008.
Kuroda, Y. and Kodera, K.: Variability of the polar night jet in the northern and southern hemispheres, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 20703–20713, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD900226.2001, 2001.
Kushner, P. J. and Polvani, L. M.: Stratosphere-troposphere coupling in a
relatively simple AGCM: The role of eddies, J. Climate, 17, 629–639, 2004.
Kushnir, Y., Scaife, A. A., Arritt, R., Balsamo, G., Boer, G., Doblas-Reyes, F., Hawkins, E., Kimoto, M., Kolli, R. K., Kumar, A., Matei, D., Matthes, K., Müller, W. A., O'Kane, T., Perlwitz, J., Power, S., Raphael, M., Shimpo, A., Smith, D., Tuma, M., and Wu, B.: Towards operational
predictions of the near-term climate, Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 94–101, 2019.
Labe, Z., Peings, Y., and Magnusdottir, G.: The effect of QBO phase on the
atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in early winter,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 7663–7671, 2019.
Labitzke, K.: On the Mutual Relation between Stratosphere and Troposphere
during Periods of Stratospheric Warmings in Winter, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim.,
4, 91–99, 1965.
Lai, W. K. M., Robson, J. I., Wilcox, L. J., and Dunstone, N.: Mechanisms of
Internal Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in HadGEM3-GC3.1 at Two Different
Resolutions, J. Climate, 35, 1365–1383, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0281.1, 2021.
Lawrence, Z. D., Perlwitz, J., Butler, A. H., Manney, G. L., Newman, P. A.,
Lee, S. H., and Nash, E. R.: The remarkably strong Arctic stratospheric
polar vortex of winter 2020: Links to record-breaking Arctic Oscillation and
ozone loss, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125,
e2020JD033271, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033271, 2020.
Leckebusch, G. C., Ulbrich, U., Fröhlich, L., and Pinto, J. G.: Property
loss potentials for European midlatitude storms in a changing climate,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L05703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027663, 2007.
Lee, S. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Furtado, J. C., Woolnough, S. J.: Representation of
the Scandinavia–Greenland pattern and its relationship with the polar
vortex in S2S forecast models, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 4083–4098, 2020a.
Lee, S. H., Lawrence, Z. D., Butler, A. H., and Karpechko, A.: Seasonal forecasts
of the exceptional Northern Hemisphere winter of 2020, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
47, e2020GL090328, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090328, 2020b.
Leung, T. Y., Leutbecher, M., Reich, S., and Shepherd, T. G.: Impact of the
mesoscale range on error growth and the limits to atmospheric
predictability, J. Atmos. Sci., 77, 3769–3779, 2020.
L'Heureux, M. L., Levine, A. F. Z., Newman, M., Ganter, C., Luo, J.-J.,
Tippett, M. K., and Stockdale, T. N.: ENSO Prediction, in: El Niño Southern
Oscillation in a Changing Climate, edited by: McPhaden, M. J., Santoso, A., and
Cai, W., AGU Monograph, Wiley, USA, 2020.
Lim, E.-P., Hendon, H. H., and Thompson, D. W. J.: Seasonal evolution of
stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the Southern Hemisphere and
implications for the predictability of surface climate, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 12002–12016, 2018.
Lim, E.-P., Hendon, H. H., Boschat, G., Hudson, D., Thompson, D. W. J.,
Dowdy, A. J., and Arblaster, J.: Australian hot and dry extremes induced by
weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, Nat. Geosci., 12, 896–901, 2019a.
Lim, Y., Son, S.-W., Marshall, A. G., Hendon, H. H., and Seo, K.-H.: Influence
of the QBO on MJO prediction skill in the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction
models, Clim. Dynam., 53, 1681–1695, 2019b.
Lim, E.-P., Hendon, H. H., Butler, A. H., Thompson, D. W. J., Lawrence, Z. D., Scaife, A. A., Shepherd, T. G., Polichtchouk, I., Nakamura, H., Kobayashi, C., Comer, R., Coy, L., Dowdy, A., Garreaud, R. D., Newman, P. A., and Wang, G.: The 2019 Southern Hemisphere polar stratospheric
warming and its impacts, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 102, E1150–E1171, 2021.
Lin, H., Brunet, G., and Derome, J.: An Observed Connection between the
North Atlantic Oscillation and the Madden–Julian Oscillation, J. Climate, 22, 364–380, 2009.
Liu, C., Tian, B., Li, K.-F., Manney, G. L., Livesey, N. J., Yung, Y. L., and Waliser, D. E.: Northern Hemisphere mid-winter
vortex-displacement and vortex-split stratospheric sudden warmings:
influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 12599–12620, 2014.
Lockwood, M.: Solar change and climate: An update in the light of the
current exceptional solar minimum, Proc. R. Soc. A, 466, 303–329, 2010.
Lorenz, E. N.: The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of
motion, Tellus, 21, 289–307, 1969.
MacLachlan, C., Arribas, A., Peterson, K. A., Maidens, A., Fereday, D.,
Scaife, A. A., Gordon, M., Vellinga, M., Williams, A., Comer, R. E., Camp, J.,
Xavier, P., and Madec, G.: Global Seasonal forecast system version 5
(GloSea5): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 1072–1084, 2015.
Mann, M. E., Park, J., and Bradley, R. S.: Global interdecadal and
century-scale climate oscillations during the past 5 centuries, Nature, 378,
266–270, 1995.
Manzini, E., Giorgetta, M. A., Esch, M., Kornblueh, L., and Roeckner, E.:
The Influence of Sea Surface Temperatures on the Northern Winter
Stratosphere: Ensemble Simulations with the MAECHAM5 Model, J. Climate, 19, 3863–3881, 2006.
Manzini, E., Karpechko, A. Y., Anstey, J., Baldwin, M. P., Black, R. X., Cagnazzo, C., Calvo, N., Charlton-Perez, A., Christiansen, B., Davini, P., Gerber, E., Giorgetta, M., Gray, L., Hardiman, S. C., Lee, Y.-Y., Marsh, D. R., McDaniel, B. A., Purich, A., Scaife, A. A., Shindell, D., Son, S.-W., Watanabe, S., and Zappa, G.: Northern winter climate change: Assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 7979–7998, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021403, 2014.
Manzini, E., Karpechko, A. Y., and Kornblueh, L.: Nonlinear Response of the
Stratosphere and the North Atlantic-European Climate to Global Warming,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 4255–4263, 2018.
Mariotti, A., Baggett, C., Barnes, E. A., Becker, E., Butler, A. H.,
Collins, D. C., Dirmeyer, P. A., Ferranti, L., Johnson, N. C., Jones, J., Kirtman, B. P.,
Lang, A. L., Molod, A., Newman, M., Robertson, A. W., Schubert, S., Waliser, D. E.,
and Albers J.: Windows of opportunity for skillful forecasts subseasonal to
seasonal and beyond, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 101, E608–E625, 2020.
Marsh, D. R., Garcia, R. R., Kinnison, D. E., Boville, B. A., Sassi, F.,
Solomon, S. C., and Matthes, K.: Modeling the whole atmosphere response to
solar cycle changes in radiative and geomagnetic forcing, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D23306, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008306, 2007.
Marshall, A. and Scaife, A. A.: Improved predictability of stratospheric sudden
warming events in an AGCM with enhanced stratospheric resolution, J.
Geophys. Res., 115, D16114, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012643, 2010.
Marshall, A. G., Scaife, A. A., and Ineson, S.: Enhanced Seasonal Prediction of European Winter Warming following Volcanic Eruptions, J. Climate, 22, 6168–6180, 2009.
Marshall, A. G., Hendon, H. H., Son, S. W., and Lim, Y.: Impact of the
quasi-biennial oscillation on predictability of the Madden–Julian
oscillation, Clim. Dynam., 49, 1365–1377, 2017.
Martin, Z., Wang, S., Nie, J., and Sobel, A.: The Impact of the QBO on MJO
Convection in Cloud-Resolving Simulations, J. Atmos. Sci., 76, 669–688, 2019.
Martin, Z., Son, S. W., Butler, A., Hendon, H., Kim, H., Sobel, A., Yoden, S., and Zhang, C.: The influence of the quasi-biennial
oscillation on the Madden–Julian oscillation, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 2,
477–489, 2021.
Matthias, V. and Kretschmer, M.: The Influence of Stratospheric Wave
Reflection on North American Cold Spells, Mon. Weather Rev., 148, 1675–1690, 2020.
Maycock, A. C., Ineson, S., Gray, L. J., Scaife, A. A., Anstey, J. A.,
Lockwood, M., Butchart, N., Hardiman, S. C., Mitchell, D. M., and Osprey, S.
M.: Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate:
Stratospheric and global circulation changes, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 9043–9058, 2015.
McKenna, C. M., Bracegirdle, T. J., Shuckburgh, E. F., Haynes, P. H., and Joshi,
M. M.: Arctic sea-ice loss in different regions leads to contrasting Northern
Hemisphere impacts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 945–954, 2018.
McLandress, C. and Shepherd, T. G.: Impact of climate change on stratospheric
sudden warmings as simulated by the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model, J.
Climate, 22, 5449–5463, 2009.
McLandress, C., Shepherd, T. G., Scinocca, J. F., Plummer, D. A., Sigmond, M.,
Jonsson, A. I., and Reader, M. C.: Separating the dynamical effects of climate
change and ozone depletion: Part 2. Southern Hemisphere Troposphere, J.
Climate, 24, 1850–1868, 2011.
Meehl, G. A., Richter, J. H., Teng, H., Capotondi, A., Cobb, K., Doblas-Reyes, F., Donat, M. G., England, M. E., Fyfe, J. C., Han, W., Kim, H., Kirtman, B. P., Kushnir, Y., Lovenduski, N. S., Mann, M. E., Merryfield, W. J., Nieves, V., Pegion, K., Rosenbloom, N., Sanchez, S. C., Scaife, A. A., Smith, D., Subramanian, A. C., Sun, L., Thompson, D., Ummenhofer, C. C., and Xie, S. P. : Initialised Earth System Prediction from Subseasonal to
Decadal Timescales, Nat. Rev. Earth. Environ., 2, 340–357, 2021.
Merryfield, W. J., Lee, W., Boer, G. J., Kharin, V. V., Scinocca, J. F.,
Flato, G. M., Ajayamohan, R. S., Fyfe, J. C., Tang, Y., and Polavarapu, S.:
The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System. Part I: Models and
Initialization, Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 2910–2945, 2013.
Merryfield, W. J., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Ferranti, L., Jeong, J.-H.,
Orsolini, Y. J., Saurral, R. I., Scaife, A. A., Tolstykh, M. A., and Rixen, M.: Advancing climate forecasting, Eos, 98, 17–21, 2017.
Merryfield, W. J., Baehr, J., Batté, L., Becker, E. J., Butler, A. H., Coelho, C. A. S., Danabasoglu, G., Dirmeyer, P. A., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Domeisen, D. I. V., Ferranti, L., Ilynia, T., Kumar, A., Müller, W. A., Rixen, M., Robertson, A. W., Smith, D. M., Takaya, Y., Tuma, M., Vitart, F., White, C. J., Alvarez, M. S., Ardilouze, C., Attard, H., Baggett, C., Balmaseda, M. A., Beraki, A. F., Bhattacharjee, P. S., Bilbao, R., de Andrade, F. M., DeFlorio, M. J., Díaz, L. B., Ehsan, M. A., Fragkoulidis, G., Grainger, S., Green, B. W., Hell, M. C., Infanti, J. M., Isensee, K., Kataoka, T., Kirtman, B. P., Klingaman, N. P., Lee, J.-Y., Mayer, K., McKay, R., Mecking, J. V., Miller, D. E., Neddermann, N., Ng, C. H. J., Ossó, A., Pankatz, K., Peatman, S., Pegion, K., Perlwitz, J., Recalde-Coronel, G. C., Reintges, A., Renkl, C., Solaraju-Murali, B., Spring, A., Stan, C., Sun, Y. Q., Tozer, C. R., Vigaud, N., Woolnough, S., and Yeager, S.: Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 101, E869–E896, 2020.
Molina, M. and Rowland, F.: Stratospheric sink for chlorofluoromethanes:
chlorine atom-catalysed destruction of ozone, Nature, 249, 810–812, 1974.
Monge-Sanz, B. M., Bozzo, A., Byrne, N., Chipperfield, M. P., Diamantakis, M., Flemming, J., Gray, L. J., Hogan, R. J., Jones, L., Magnusson, L., Polichtchouk, I., Shepherd, T. G., Wedi, N., and Weisheimer, A.: A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth System Models: performance, impacts and future, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-1261, in review, 2021.
Müller, W. A. and Roeckner, E.: ENSO impact on midlatitude circulation
patterns in future climate change projections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33,
L05711, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025032, 2006.
Mukougawa, H., Sakai, H., and Hirooka, T.: High sensitivity to the initial
condition for the prediction of stratospheric sudden warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L17806, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022909, 2005.
Mukougawa, H., Hirooka, T., and Kuroda, Y.: Influence of stratospheric
circulation on the predictability of the tropospheric Northern Annular Mode,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08814, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL037127, 2009.
Mukougawa, H., Noguchi, S., Kuroda, Y., Mizuta, R., and Kodera, K.:
Dynamics and predictability of downward-propagating stratospheric planetary
waves observed in March 2007, J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 3533–3550, 2017.
Nie, Y., Scaife, A. A., Ren, H. L., Comer, R. E., Andrews, M. B., Davis, P., and Martin, N.: Stratospheric initial conditions provide seasonal
predictability of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 034006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab0385, 2019.
Noguchi, S., Mukougawa, H., Kuroda, Y., Mizuta, R., Yabu, S., and
Yoshimura, H.: Predictability of the stratospheric polar vortex breakdown:
An ensemble reforecast experiment for the splitting event in January 2009,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 3388–3404, 2016.
Noguchi, S., Kuroda, Y., Mukougawa, H., Mizuta, R., and Kobayashi, C.:
Impact of satellite observations on forecasting sudden stratospheric
warmings, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086233, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086233, 2020a.
Noguchi, S., Kuroda, Y., Kodera, K., and Watanabe, S.: Robust enhancement
of tropical convective activity by the 2019 Antarctic sudden stratospheric
warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL088743, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088743, 2020b.
Norton, W. A.: Sensitivity of northern hemisphere surface climate to simulation of the stratospheric polar vortex, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1627, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL016958, 2003.
Oehrlein, J., Chiodo, G., and Polvani, L. M.: The effect of interactive ozone chemistry on weak and strong stratospheric polar vortex events, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10531–10544, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10531-2020, 2020.
Omrani, N. E., Keenlyside, N. S., Bader, J., and Manzini, E.: Stratosphere key for
wintertime atmospheric response to warm Atlantic decadal conditions, Clim. Dynam., 42, 649–663, 2014.