Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
| 
25 Feb 2022
Review article |
| 25 Feb 2022
| 25 Feb 2022
Long-range prediction and the stratosphere
Adam A. Scaife
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter, UK
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Mark P. Baldwin
Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Amy H. Butler
NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (CSL), Boulder, CO, USA
Andrew J. Charlton-Perez
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Chaim I. Garfinkel
Fredy & Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew
University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
Steven C. Hardiman
Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter, UK
Peter Haynes
Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Alexey Yu Karpechko
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Eun-Pa Lim
Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Shunsuke Noguchi
Research Center for Environmental Modeling and Application, Japan
Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency,
Tsukuba, Japan
Judith Perlwitz
NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL), Boulder, CO, USA
Lorenzo Polvani
Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
Jadwiga H. Richter
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
John Scinocca
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and
Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Michael Sigmond
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and
Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Theodore G. Shepherd
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Seok-Woo Son
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National
University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
David W. J. Thompson
Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort
Collins, CO, USA
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Latest update: 14 Nov 2025
Short summary
Great progress has been made in computer modelling and simulation of the whole climate system, including the stratosphere. Since the late 20th century we also gained a much clearer understanding of how the stratosphere interacts with the lower atmosphere. The latest generation of numerical prediction systems now explicitly represents the stratosphere and its interaction with surface climate, and here we review its role in long-range predictions and projections from weeks to decades ahead.
Great progress has been made in computer modelling and simulation of the whole climate system,...
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