Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
| 
25 Feb 2022
Review article |
| 25 Feb 2022
| 25 Feb 2022
Long-range prediction and the stratosphere
Adam A. Scaife
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter, UK
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Mark P. Baldwin
Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Amy H. Butler
NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (CSL), Boulder, CO, USA
Andrew J. Charlton-Perez
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Chaim I. Garfinkel
Fredy & Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew
University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
Steven C. Hardiman
Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter, UK
Peter Haynes
Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Alexey Yu Karpechko
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Eun-Pa Lim
Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Shunsuke Noguchi
Research Center for Environmental Modeling and Application, Japan
Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency,
Tsukuba, Japan
Judith Perlwitz
NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL), Boulder, CO, USA
Lorenzo Polvani
Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
Jadwiga H. Richter
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
John Scinocca
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and
Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Michael Sigmond
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and
Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Theodore G. Shepherd
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Seok-Woo Son
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National
University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
David W. J. Thompson
Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort
Collins, CO, USA
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Cited
27 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Northern winter stratospheric polar vortex regimes and their possible influence on the extratropical troposphere Z. Liang et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06494-9
- Continental cold-air-outbreaks under the varying stratosphere-troposphere coupling regimes during stratospheric Northern Annular Mode events Y. Yu et al. 10.1007/s00382-024-07275-2
- Quasi-Biennial Oscillation influence on Australian summer rainfall X. Jiang et al. 10.1038/s41612-023-00552-7
- Predictability of European winter 2020/2021: Influence of a mid‐winter sudden stratospheric warming J. Lockwood et al. 10.1002/asl.1126
- The stratosphere: a review of the dynamics and variability N. Butchart 10.5194/wcd-3-1237-2022
- Combined Modes of the Northern Stratosphere, Tropical Oceans, and East Asian Spring Rainfall: A Novel Method to Improve Seasonal Forecasts of Precipitation J. Rao et al. 10.1029/2022GL101360
- Tropical Wave Observations From the Reel‐Down Atmospheric Temperature Sensor (RATS) in the Lowermost Stratosphere During Strateole‐2 M. Bramberger et al. 10.1029/2023GL104711
- Connection between Winter East Asia Flow Patterns and Stratospheric Polar Vortex Anomalies M. Taguchi 10.3390/atmos15070844
- Development of a Balloon-Borne Acoustic Anemometer to Measure Winds for SENSOR Campaign L. Song et al. 10.1109/TIM.2022.3189629
- Nonlinear Effects of the Stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation and ENSO on the North Atlantic Winter Atmospheric Circulation T. Ma et al. 10.1029/2023JD039537
- Arctic Stratosphere Dynamical Processes in the Winter 2021–2022 P. Vargin et al. 10.3390/atmos13101550
- Impacts of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex changes on the frontogenesis over the northern middle latitudes during winter J. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106751
- Using large ensembles to quantify the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings and their precursors on the North Atlantic Oscillation P. Bett et al. 10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023
- Amplified Decadal Variability of Extratropical Surface Temperatures by Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling A. Butler et al. 10.1029/2023GL104607
- Simulation of Stratospheric Processes with the SLAV072L96 Atmospheric General Circulation Model V. Shashkin et al. 10.3103/S1068373923060018
- Southern Hemispheric jet swing linked to Arctic stratospheric polar vortex F. Xie et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad3460
- Stratospheric PULSE–continental cold air outbreak coupling relationships: Interannual and interdecadal changes Y. Yu et al. 10.3389/feart.2022.1093189
- Fluid Dynamics of Polar Vortices on Earth, Mars, and Titan D. Waugh 10.1146/annurev-fluid-120720-032208
- Stratospheric impacts on dust transport and air pollution in West Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean Y. Dai et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-35403-1
- North American cooling signature of strong stratospheric wave events depends on the QBO phase X. Ding et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad53f6
- Stratospheric wave driving events as an alternative to sudden stratospheric warmings T. Reichler & M. Jucker 10.5194/wcd-3-659-2022
- Precursory Signals in the Stratospheric Meridional Mass Circulation for Mid‐Latitude Cold Air Outbreak Events of High and Low Sub‐Seasonal Predictability Y. Yu et al. 10.1029/2022JD036814
- Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives S. Materia et al. 10.1002/wcc.914
- Revealing the Statistics of Extreme Events Hidden in Short Weather Forecast Data J. Finkel et al. 10.1029/2023AV000881
- Simulation of Northern Winter Stratospheric Polar Vortex Regimes in CESM2-WACCM D. Guo et al. 10.3390/atmos14020243
- Tropical Atlantic rainfall drives bias in extratropical seasonal forecasts T. Collier et al. 10.1002/asl.1205
- Long‐Term Prediction of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings With Geomagnetic and Solar Activity M. Vokhmyanin et al. 10.1029/2022JD037337
27 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Northern winter stratospheric polar vortex regimes and their possible influence on the extratropical troposphere Z. Liang et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06494-9
- Continental cold-air-outbreaks under the varying stratosphere-troposphere coupling regimes during stratospheric Northern Annular Mode events Y. Yu et al. 10.1007/s00382-024-07275-2
- Quasi-Biennial Oscillation influence on Australian summer rainfall X. Jiang et al. 10.1038/s41612-023-00552-7
- Predictability of European winter 2020/2021: Influence of a mid‐winter sudden stratospheric warming J. Lockwood et al. 10.1002/asl.1126
- The stratosphere: a review of the dynamics and variability N. Butchart 10.5194/wcd-3-1237-2022
- Combined Modes of the Northern Stratosphere, Tropical Oceans, and East Asian Spring Rainfall: A Novel Method to Improve Seasonal Forecasts of Precipitation J. Rao et al. 10.1029/2022GL101360
- Tropical Wave Observations From the Reel‐Down Atmospheric Temperature Sensor (RATS) in the Lowermost Stratosphere During Strateole‐2 M. Bramberger et al. 10.1029/2023GL104711
- Connection between Winter East Asia Flow Patterns and Stratospheric Polar Vortex Anomalies M. Taguchi 10.3390/atmos15070844
- Development of a Balloon-Borne Acoustic Anemometer to Measure Winds for SENSOR Campaign L. Song et al. 10.1109/TIM.2022.3189629
- Nonlinear Effects of the Stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation and ENSO on the North Atlantic Winter Atmospheric Circulation T. Ma et al. 10.1029/2023JD039537
- Arctic Stratosphere Dynamical Processes in the Winter 2021–2022 P. Vargin et al. 10.3390/atmos13101550
- Impacts of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex changes on the frontogenesis over the northern middle latitudes during winter J. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106751
- Using large ensembles to quantify the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings and their precursors on the North Atlantic Oscillation P. Bett et al. 10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023
- Amplified Decadal Variability of Extratropical Surface Temperatures by Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling A. Butler et al. 10.1029/2023GL104607
- Simulation of Stratospheric Processes with the SLAV072L96 Atmospheric General Circulation Model V. Shashkin et al. 10.3103/S1068373923060018
- Southern Hemispheric jet swing linked to Arctic stratospheric polar vortex F. Xie et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad3460
- Stratospheric PULSE–continental cold air outbreak coupling relationships: Interannual and interdecadal changes Y. Yu et al. 10.3389/feart.2022.1093189
- Fluid Dynamics of Polar Vortices on Earth, Mars, and Titan D. Waugh 10.1146/annurev-fluid-120720-032208
- Stratospheric impacts on dust transport and air pollution in West Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean Y. Dai et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-35403-1
- North American cooling signature of strong stratospheric wave events depends on the QBO phase X. Ding et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad53f6
- Stratospheric wave driving events as an alternative to sudden stratospheric warmings T. Reichler & M. Jucker 10.5194/wcd-3-659-2022
- Precursory Signals in the Stratospheric Meridional Mass Circulation for Mid‐Latitude Cold Air Outbreak Events of High and Low Sub‐Seasonal Predictability Y. Yu et al. 10.1029/2022JD036814
- Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives S. Materia et al. 10.1002/wcc.914
- Revealing the Statistics of Extreme Events Hidden in Short Weather Forecast Data J. Finkel et al. 10.1029/2023AV000881
- Simulation of Northern Winter Stratospheric Polar Vortex Regimes in CESM2-WACCM D. Guo et al. 10.3390/atmos14020243
- Tropical Atlantic rainfall drives bias in extratropical seasonal forecasts T. Collier et al. 10.1002/asl.1205
- Long‐Term Prediction of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings With Geomagnetic and Solar Activity M. Vokhmyanin et al. 10.1029/2022JD037337
Latest update: 12 Nov 2024
Short summary
Great progress has been made in computer modelling and simulation of the whole climate system, including the stratosphere. Since the late 20th century we also gained a much clearer understanding of how the stratosphere interacts with the lower atmosphere. The latest generation of numerical prediction systems now explicitly represents the stratosphere and its interaction with surface climate, and here we review its role in long-range predictions and projections from weeks to decades ahead.
Great progress has been made in computer modelling and simulation of the whole climate system,...
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