Articles | Volume 17, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4355-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4355-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
30 Mar 2017
Research article |
| 30 Mar 2017
Influence of 2000–2050 climate change on particulate matter in the United States: results from a new statistical model
Lu Shen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University,
Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
Loretta J. Mickley
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University,
Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
Lee T. Murray
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of
Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627, USA
Related authors
Hannah Nesser, Daniel J. Jacob, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Alba Lorente, Zichong Chen, Xiao Lu, Lu Shen, Zhen Qu, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Margaux Winter, Shuang Ma, A. Anthony Bloom, John R. Worden, Robert N. Stavins, and Cynthia A. Randles
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5069–5091, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5069-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5069-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify 2019 methane emissions in the contiguous US (CONUS) at a ≈ 25 km × 25 km resolution using satellite methane observations. We find a 13 % upward correction to the 2023 US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory (GHGI) for 2019, with large corrections to individual states, urban areas, and landfills. This may present a challenge for US climate policies and goals, many of which target significant reductions in methane emissions.
Daniel J. Varon, Daniel J. Jacob, Benjamin Hmiel, Ritesh Gautam, David R. Lyon, Mark Omara, Melissa Sulprizio, Lu Shen, Drew Pendergrass, Hannah Nesser, Zhen Qu, Zachary R. Barkley, Natasha L. Miles, Scott J. Richardson, Kenneth J. Davis, Sudhanshu Pandey, Xiao Lu, Alba Lorente, Tobias Borsdorff, Joannes D. Maasakkers, and Ilse Aben
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7503–7520, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7503-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7503-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use TROPOMI satellite observations to quantify weekly methane emissions from the US Permian oil and gas basin from May 2018 to October 2020. We find that Permian emissions are highly variable, with diverse economic and activity drivers. The most important drivers during our study period were new well development and natural gas price. Permian methane intensity averaged 4.6 % and decreased by 1 % per year.
Zichong Chen, Daniel J. Jacob, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, Robert N. Stavins, Robert C. Stowe, Hannah Nesser, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Alba Lorente, Daniel J. Varon, Xiao Lu, Lu Shen, Zhen Qu, Drew C. Pendergrass, and Sarah Hancock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5945–5967, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5945-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5945-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify methane emissions from individual countries in the Middle East and North Africa by inverse analysis of 2019 TROPOMI satellite observations of atmospheric methane. We show that the ability to simply relate oil/gas emissions to activity metrics is compromised by stochastic nature of local infrastructure and management practices. We find that the industry target for oil/gas methane intensity is achievable through associated gas capture, modern infrastructure, and centralized operations.
Lu Shen, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, Daniel Zavala-Araiza, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Tia R. Scarpelli, Alba Lorente, David Lyon, Jianxiong Sheng, Daniel J. Varon, Hannah Nesser, Zhen Qu, Xiao Lu, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Steven P. Hamburg, and Daniel J. Jacob
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11203–11215, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11203-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11203-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use 22 months of TROPOMI satellite observations to quantity methane emissions from the oil (O) and natural gas (G) sector in the US and Canada at the scale of both individual basins as well as country-wide aggregates. We find that O/G-related methane emissions are underestimated in these inventories by 80 % for the US and 40 % for Canada, and 70 % of the underestimate in the US is from five O/G basins, including Permian, Haynesville, Anadarko, Eagle Ford, and Barnett.
Zichong Chen, Daniel J. Jacob, Hannah Nesser, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Alba Lorente, Daniel J. Varon, Xiao Lu, Lu Shen, Zhen Qu, Elise Penn, and Xueying Yu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10809–10826, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10809-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10809-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify methane emissions in China and contributions from different sectors by inverse analysis of 2019 TROPOMI satellite observations of atmospheric methane. We find that anthropogenic methane emissions for China are underestimated in the national inventory. Our estimate of emissions indicates a small life-cycle loss rate, implying net climate benefits from the current
coal-to-gasenergy transition in China. However, this small loss rate can be misleading given China's high gas imports.
Daniel J. Varon, Daniel J. Jacob, Melissa Sulprizio, Lucas A. Estrada, William B. Downs, Lu Shen, Sarah E. Hancock, Hannah Nesser, Zhen Qu, Elise Penn, Zichong Chen, Xiao Lu, Alba Lorente, Ashutosh Tewari, and Cynthia A. Randles
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5787–5805, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5787-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5787-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Reducing atmospheric methane emissions is critical to slow near-term climate change. Globally surveying satellite instruments like the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) have unique capabilities for monitoring atmospheric methane around the world. Here we present a user-friendly cloud-computing tool that enables researchers and stakeholders to quantify methane emissions across user-selected regions of interest using TROPOMI satellite observations.
Lu Shen, Daniel J. Jacob, Mauricio Santillana, Kelvin Bates, Jiawei Zhuang, and Wei Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1677–1687, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1677-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1677-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The high computational cost of chemical integration is a long-standing limitation in global atmospheric chemistry models. Here we present an adaptive and efficient algorithm that can reduce the computational time of atmospheric chemistry by 50 % and maintain the error below 2 % for important species, inspired by machine learning clustering techniques and traditional asymptotic analysis ideas.
Xiao Lu, Daniel J. Jacob, Haolin Wang, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Yuzhong Zhang, Tia R. Scarpelli, Lu Shen, Zhen Qu, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Hannah Nesser, A. Anthony Bloom, Shuang Ma, John R. Worden, Shaojia Fan, Robert J. Parker, Hartmut Boesch, Ritesh Gautam, Deborah Gordon, Michael D. Moran, Frances Reuland, Claudia A. Octaviano Villasana, and Arlyn Andrews
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 395–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-395-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-395-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate methane emissions and trends for 2010–2017 in the gridded national emission inventories for the United States, Canada, and Mexico by inversion of in situ and satellite methane observations. We find that anthropogenic methane emissions for all three countries are underestimated in the national inventories, largely driven by oil emissions. Anthropogenic methane emissions in the US peak in 2014, in contrast to the report of a steadily decreasing trend over 2010–2017 from the US EPA.
Yuqiang Zhang, Drew Shindell, Karl Seltzer, Lu Shen, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Qiang Zhang, Bo Zheng, Jia Xing, Zhe Jiang, and Lei Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16051–16065, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16051-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we use a global chemical transport model to simulate the effects on global air quality and human health due to emission changes in China from 2010 to 2017. By performing sensitivity analysis, we found that the air pollution control policies not only decrease the air pollutant concentration but also bring significant co-benefits in air quality to downwind regions. The benefits for the improved air pollution are dominated by PM2.5.
Zhen Qu, Daniel J. Jacob, Lu Shen, Xiao Lu, Yuzhong Zhang, Tia R. Scarpelli, Hannah Nesser, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Joannes D. Maasakkers, A. Anthony Bloom, John R. Worden, Robert J. Parker, and Alba L. Delgado
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14159–14175, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14159-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The recent launch of TROPOMI offers an unprecedented opportunity to quantify the methane budget from a top-down perspective. We use TROPOMI and the more mature GOSAT methane observations to estimate methane emissions and get consistent global budgets. However, TROPOMI shows biases over regions where surface albedo is small and provides less information for the coarse-resolution inversion due to the larger error correlations and spatial variations in the number of observations.
Gongda Lu, Eloise A. Marais, Tuan V. Vu, Jingsha Xu, Zongbo Shi, James D. Lee, Qiang Zhang, Lu Shen, Gan Luo, and Fangqun Yu
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-428, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-428, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Emission controls were imposed in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in northern China in autumn-winter 2017. We find that regional PM2.5 targets (15 % decrease relative to previous year) were exceeded. Our analysis shows that decline in precursor emissions only leads to less than half (43 %) the improved air quality. Most of the change (57 %) is due to interannual variability in meteorology. Stricter emission controls may be necessary in years with unfavourable meteorology.
David R. Lyon, Benjamin Hmiel, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, Katherine A. Roberts, Zachary R. Barkley, Kenneth J. Davis, Natasha L. Miles, Vanessa C. Monteiro, Scott J. Richardson, Stephen Conley, Mackenzie L. Smith, Daniel J. Jacob, Lu Shen, Daniel J. Varon, Aijun Deng, Xander Rudelis, Nikhil Sharma, Kyle T. Story, Adam R. Brandt, Mary Kang, Eric A. Kort, Anthony J. Marchese, and Steven P. Hamburg
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6605–6626, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6605-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6605-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Permian Basin (USA) is the world’s largest oil field. We use tower- and aircraft-based approaches to measure how methane emissions in the Permian Basin changed throughout 2020. In early 2020, 3.3 % of the region’s gas was emitted; then in spring 2020, the loss rate temporarily dropped to 1.9 % as oil price crashed. We find this short-term reduction to be a result of reduced well development, less gas flaring, and fewer abnormal events despite minimal reductions in oil and gas production.
Xiao Lu, Daniel J. Jacob, Yuzhong Zhang, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Lu Shen, Zhen Qu, Tia R. Scarpelli, Hannah Nesser, Robert M. Yantosca, Jianxiong Sheng, Arlyn Andrews, Robert J. Parker, Hartmut Boesch, A. Anthony Bloom, and Shuang Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4637–4657, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4637-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4637-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use an analytical solution to the Bayesian inverse problem to quantitatively compare and combine the information from satellite and in situ observations, and to estimate global methane budget and their trends over the 2010–2017 period. We find that satellite and in situ observations are to a large extent complementary in the inversion for estimating global methane budget, and reveal consistent corrections of regional anthropogenic and wetland methane emissions relative to the prior inventory.
Yuzhong Zhang, Daniel J. Jacob, Xiao Lu, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Tia R. Scarpelli, Jian-Xiong Sheng, Lu Shen, Zhen Qu, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Jinfeng Chang, A. Anthony Bloom, Shuang Ma, John Worden, Robert J. Parker, and Hartmut Boesch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3643–3666, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3643-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3643-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use 2010–2018 satellite observations of atmospheric methane to interpret the factors controlling atmospheric methane and its accelerating increase during the period. The 2010–2018 increase in global methane emissions is driven by tropical and boreal wetlands and tropical livestock (South Asia, Africa, Brazil), with an insignificant positive trend in emissions from the fossil fuel sector. The peak methane growth rates in 2014–2015 are also contributed by low OH and high fire emissions.
Shaojie Song, Tao Ma, Yuzhong Zhang, Lu Shen, Pengfei Liu, Ke Li, Shixian Zhai, Haotian Zheng, Meng Gao, Jonathan M. Moch, Fengkui Duan, Kebin He, and Michael B. McElroy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 457–481, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-457-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-457-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the atmospheric chemical processes of an important sulfur-containing organic aerosol species, which is produced by the reaction between sulfur dioxide and formaldehyde. We can predict its distribution on a global scale. We find it is particularly rich in East Asia. This aerosol species is more abundant in the colder season partly because of weaker sunlight.
Ke Li, Daniel J. Jacob, Lu Shen, Xiao Lu, Isabelle De Smedt, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11423–11433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11423-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11423-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Surface summer ozone increased in China from 2013 to 2019 despite new governmental efforts targeting ozone pollution. We find that the ozone increase is mostly due to anthropogenic drivers, although meteorology also plays a role. Further analysis for the North China Plain shows that PM2.5 continued to decrease through 2019, while emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) stayed flat. This could explain the anthropogenic increase in ozone, as PM2.5 scavenges the radical precursors of ozone.
Haipeng Lin, Xu Feng, Tzung-May Fu, Heng Tian, Yaping Ma, Lijuan Zhang, Daniel J. Jacob, Robert M. Yantosca, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Elizabeth W. Lundgren, Jiawei Zhuang, Qiang Zhang, Xiao Lu, Lin Zhang, Lu Shen, Jianping Guo, Sebastian D. Eastham, and Christoph A. Keller
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3241–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3241-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3241-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Online coupling of meteorology and chemistry models often presents maintenance issues with hard-wired coding. We present WRF-GC, an one-way online coupling of the WRF meteorological model and GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry model for regional atmospheric chemistry and air quality modeling. Our coupling structure allows future versions of either parent model to be immediately integrated into WRF-GC. The WRF-GC model was able to well reproduce regional PM2.5 with greater computational efficiency.
Lu Shen, Daniel J. Jacob, Mauricio Santillana, Xuan Wang, and Wei Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2475–2486, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2475-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2475-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Chemical mechanisms in air quality models tend to get more complicated with time, reflecting both increasing knowledge and the need for greater scope. This objectively improves the models but increases the computational burden. In this work, we present an approach that can reduce the computational cost of chemical integration by 30–40 % while maintaining an accuracy better than 1 %. It retains the complexity of the full mechanism where it is needed and preserves full diagnostic information.
Shixian Zhai, Daniel J. Jacob, Xuan Wang, Lu Shen, Ke Li, Yuzhong Zhang, Ke Gui, Tianliang Zhao, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11031–11041, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11031-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11031-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Observed annual mean PM2.5 decreased by 30–50 % in China from 2013–2018. However, meteorologically PM2.5 variability complicates trend attribution. We used a stepwise multiple linear regression model to quantitatively separate contributions from anthropogenic emissions and meteorology. Results show that 88 % of the PM2.5 decrease across China is attributable to anthropogenic emission changes, and 12 % is attributable to meteorology.
Lu Shen, Daniel J. Jacob, Xiong Liu, Guanyu Huang, Ke Li, Hong Liao, and Tao Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6551–6560, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6551-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6551-2019, 2019
Lu Shen, Daniel J. Jacob, Loretta J. Mickley, Yuxuan Wang, and Qiang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17489–17496, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17489-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17489-2018, 2018
Danny M. Leung, Amos P. K. Tai, Loretta J. Mickley, Jonathan M. Moch, Aaron van Donkelaar, Lu Shen, and Randall V. Martin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6733–6748, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6733-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6733-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates how large-scale weather systems control fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality in China. We show that winter monsoons, onshore winds and frontal rains can drive daily PM2.5 variability in different regions of China. We further project future PM2.5 concentration change by 2050s due to climate change, and verify that climate change has little benefit on future PM2.5 in Beijing, implying cutting down emissions is necessary to mitigate pollutions in megacities of China.
Yuxuan Wang, Yuanyu Xie, Wenhao Dong, Yi Ming, Jun Wang, and Lu Shen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12827–12843, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12827-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12827-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Besides the well-known large impact on agriculture and water resources, drought is associated with significant adverse effects on air quality. Drought-induced degradation of air quality is largely due to natural processes, offsetting the effort of anthropogenic emission reduction during the past decades. Such adverse impacts should be included in modeling processes under current and future climate for mitigation policy.
Yuxuan Wang, Beixi Jia, Sing-Chun Wang, Mark Estes, Lu Shen, and Yuanyu Xie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15265–15276, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15265-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15265-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides empirical evidence that the year-to-year variability of summertime ozone over Houston is linked to the Bermuda High (BH) large-scale circulation patterns. It identifies two BH indices that can explain up to 70 % of the interannual variability of summertime ozone in Houston and illustrates the mechanism underlying the BH and ozone linkage. Such a mechanism is tested for applicability to other coastal urban regions along the US Gulf Coast.
L. Shen, L. J. Mickley, and A. P. K. Tai
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10925–10938, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10925-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10925-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we have examined the effect of polar jet and Bermuda High on ozone air quality in the eastern United States. In the Midwest and northeast, the poleward shift of jet wind leads to reduced polar jet frequency, resulting in increased ozone there. In the southeast, the influence of Bermuda High on ozone variability depends on the location of its west edge. Westward movement increases the ozone only when the JJA Bermuda High west edge is located west of 85.4°W.
Hannah Nesser, Daniel J. Jacob, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Alba Lorente, Zichong Chen, Xiao Lu, Lu Shen, Zhen Qu, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Margaux Winter, Shuang Ma, A. Anthony Bloom, John R. Worden, Robert N. Stavins, and Cynthia A. Randles
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5069–5091, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5069-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5069-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify 2019 methane emissions in the contiguous US (CONUS) at a ≈ 25 km × 25 km resolution using satellite methane observations. We find a 13 % upward correction to the 2023 US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory (GHGI) for 2019, with large corrections to individual states, urban areas, and landfills. This may present a challenge for US climate policies and goals, many of which target significant reductions in methane emissions.
Amy Christiansen, Loretta J. Mickley, and Lu Hu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4569–4589, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4569-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4569-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we provide an additional constraint on emissions and trends of nitrogen oxides using nitrate wet deposition (NWD) fluxes over the United States and Europe from 1980–2020. We find that NWD measurements constrain total NOx emissions well. We also find evidence of NOx emission overestimates in both domains, but especially over Europe, where NOx emissions are overestimated by a factor of 2. Reducing NOx emissions over Europe improves model representation of ozone at the surface.
Xu Feng, Loretta J. Mickley, Michelle L. Bell, Tianjia Liu, Jenny A. Fisher, and Maria Val Martin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2985–3007, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2985-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2985-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
During severe wildfire seasons, smoke can have a significant impact on air quality in Australia. Our study demonstrates that characterization of the smoke plume injection fractions greatly affects estimates of surface smoke PM2.5. Using the plume behavior predicted by the machine learning method leads to the best model agreement with observed surface PM2.5 in key cities across Australia, with smoke PM2.5 accounting for 5 %–52 % of total PM2.5 on average during fire seasons from 2009 to 2020.
Benjamin Hmiel, Vasilii V. Petrenko, Christo Buizert, Andrew M. Smith, Michael N. Dyonisius, Philip Place, Bin Yang, Quan Hua, Ross Beaudette, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Christina Harth, Ray F. Weiss, Lindsey Davidge, Melisa Diaz, Matthew Pacicco, James A. Menking, Michael Kalk, Xavier Faïn, Alden Adolph, Isaac Vimont, and Lee T. Murray
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-121, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-121, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for TC
Short summary
Short summary
The main aim of this research is to improve understanding of carbon-14 that is produced by cosmic rays in ice sheets. Measurements of carbon-14 in ice cores can provide a range of useful information (age of ice, past atmospheric chemistry, past cosmic ray intensity). Our results show that almost all (approx. 95 %) of carbon-14 that is produced in the upper layer of ice sheets is rapidly lost to the atmosphere. Our results also provide better estimates of carbon-14 production rates in deeper ice.
Daniel J. Varon, Daniel J. Jacob, Benjamin Hmiel, Ritesh Gautam, David R. Lyon, Mark Omara, Melissa Sulprizio, Lu Shen, Drew Pendergrass, Hannah Nesser, Zhen Qu, Zachary R. Barkley, Natasha L. Miles, Scott J. Richardson, Kenneth J. Davis, Sudhanshu Pandey, Xiao Lu, Alba Lorente, Tobias Borsdorff, Joannes D. Maasakkers, and Ilse Aben
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7503–7520, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7503-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7503-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use TROPOMI satellite observations to quantify weekly methane emissions from the US Permian oil and gas basin from May 2018 to October 2020. We find that Permian emissions are highly variable, with diverse economic and activity drivers. The most important drivers during our study period were new well development and natural gas price. Permian methane intensity averaged 4.6 % and decreased by 1 % per year.
Ruijun Dang, Daniel J. Jacob, Viral Shah, Sebastian D. Eastham, Thibaud M. Fritz, Loretta J. Mickley, Tianjia Liu, Yi Wang, and Jun Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6271–6284, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6271-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6271-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use the GEOS-Chem model to better understand the magnitude and trend in free tropospheric NO2 over the contiguous US. Model underestimate of background NO2 is largely corrected by considering aerosol nitrate photolysis. Increase in aircraft emissions affects satellite retrievals by altering the NO2 shape factor, and this effect is expected to increase in future. We show the importance of properly accounting for the free tropospheric background in interpreting NO2 observations from space.
Zichong Chen, Daniel J. Jacob, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, Robert N. Stavins, Robert C. Stowe, Hannah Nesser, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Alba Lorente, Daniel J. Varon, Xiao Lu, Lu Shen, Zhen Qu, Drew C. Pendergrass, and Sarah Hancock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5945–5967, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5945-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5945-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify methane emissions from individual countries in the Middle East and North Africa by inverse analysis of 2019 TROPOMI satellite observations of atmospheric methane. We show that the ability to simply relate oil/gas emissions to activity metrics is compromised by stochastic nature of local infrastructure and management practices. We find that the industry target for oil/gas methane intensity is achievable through associated gas capture, modern infrastructure, and centralized operations.
Claire Bekker, Wendell W. Walters, Lee T. Murray, and Meredith G. Hastings
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4185–4201, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4185-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrate is a critical component of the atmosphere that degrades air quality and ecosystem health. We have investigated the nitrogen isotope compositions of nitrate from deposition samples collected across the northeastern United States. Spatiotemporal variability in the nitrogen isotope compositions was found to track with nitrate formation chemistry. Our results highlight that nitrogen isotope compositions may be a robust tool for improving model representation of nitrate chemistry.
Heejeong Kim, Wendell W. Walters, Claire Bekker, Lee T. Murray, and Meredith G. Hastings
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4203–4219, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric nitrate has an important impact on human and ecosystem health. We evaluated atmospheric nitrate formation pathways in the northeastern US utilizing oxygen isotope compositions, which indicated a significant difference between the phases of nitrate (i.e., gas vs. particle). Comparing the observations with model simulations indicated that N2O5 hydrolysis chemistry was overpredicted. Our study has important implications for improving atmospheric chemistry model representation.
Róisín Commane, Andrew Hallward-Driemeier, and Lee T. Murray
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 1431–1441, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-1431-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-1431-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Methane / ethane ratios can be used to identify and partition the different sources of methane, especially in areas with natural gas mixed with biogenic methane emissions, such as cities. We tested three commercially available laser-based analyzers for sensitivity, precision, size, power requirement, ease of use on mobile platforms, and expertise needed to operate the instrument, and we make recommendations for use in various situations.
Hao Guo, Clare M. Flynn, Michael J. Prather, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Louisa Emmons, Forrest Lacey, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Gus Correa, Lee T. Murray, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jason M. St. Clair, Michelle Kim, John Crounse, Glenn Diskin, Joshua DiGangi, Bruce C. Daube, Roisin Commane, Kathryn McKain, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Chelsea Thompson, Thomas F. Hanisco, Donald Blake, Nicola J. Blake, Eric C. Apel, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, James W. Elkins, Eric J. Hintsa, Fred L. Moore, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 99–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-99-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-99-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have prepared a unique and unusual result from the recent ATom aircraft mission: a measurement-based derivation of the production and loss rates of ozone and methane over the ocean basins. These are the key products of chemistry models used in assessments but have thus far lacked observational metrics. It also shows the scales of variability of atmospheric chemical rates and provides a major challenge to the atmospheric models.
Amy Christiansen, Loretta J. Mickley, Junhua Liu, Luke D. Oman, and Lu Hu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14751–14782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14751-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14751-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding tropospheric ozone trends is crucial for accurate predictions of future air quality and climate, but drivers of trends are not well understood. We analyze global tropospheric ozone trends since 1980 using ozonesonde and surface measurements, and we evaluate two models for their ability to reproduce trends. We find observational evidence of increasing tropospheric ozone, but models underestimate these increases. This hinders our ability to estimate ozone radiative forcing.
Lu Shen, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, Daniel Zavala-Araiza, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Tia R. Scarpelli, Alba Lorente, David Lyon, Jianxiong Sheng, Daniel J. Varon, Hannah Nesser, Zhen Qu, Xiao Lu, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Steven P. Hamburg, and Daniel J. Jacob
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11203–11215, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11203-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11203-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use 22 months of TROPOMI satellite observations to quantity methane emissions from the oil (O) and natural gas (G) sector in the US and Canada at the scale of both individual basins as well as country-wide aggregates. We find that O/G-related methane emissions are underestimated in these inventories by 80 % for the US and 40 % for Canada, and 70 % of the underestimate in the US is from five O/G basins, including Permian, Haynesville, Anadarko, Eagle Ford, and Barnett.
Zichong Chen, Daniel J. Jacob, Hannah Nesser, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Alba Lorente, Daniel J. Varon, Xiao Lu, Lu Shen, Zhen Qu, Elise Penn, and Xueying Yu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10809–10826, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10809-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10809-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify methane emissions in China and contributions from different sectors by inverse analysis of 2019 TROPOMI satellite observations of atmospheric methane. We find that anthropogenic methane emissions for China are underestimated in the national inventory. Our estimate of emissions indicates a small life-cycle loss rate, implying net climate benefits from the current
coal-to-gasenergy transition in China. However, this small loss rate can be misleading given China's high gas imports.
Daniel J. Varon, Daniel J. Jacob, Melissa Sulprizio, Lucas A. Estrada, William B. Downs, Lu Shen, Sarah E. Hancock, Hannah Nesser, Zhen Qu, Elise Penn, Zichong Chen, Xiao Lu, Alba Lorente, Ashutosh Tewari, and Cynthia A. Randles
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5787–5805, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5787-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5787-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Reducing atmospheric methane emissions is critical to slow near-term climate change. Globally surveying satellite instruments like the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) have unique capabilities for monitoring atmospheric methane around the world. Here we present a user-friendly cloud-computing tool that enables researchers and stakeholders to quantify methane emissions across user-selected regions of interest using TROPOMI satellite observations.
Lu Shen, Daniel J. Jacob, Mauricio Santillana, Kelvin Bates, Jiawei Zhuang, and Wei Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1677–1687, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1677-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1677-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The high computational cost of chemical integration is a long-standing limitation in global atmospheric chemistry models. Here we present an adaptive and efficient algorithm that can reduce the computational time of atmospheric chemistry by 50 % and maintain the error below 2 % for important species, inspired by machine learning clustering techniques and traditional asymptotic analysis ideas.
Xiao Lu, Daniel J. Jacob, Haolin Wang, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Yuzhong Zhang, Tia R. Scarpelli, Lu Shen, Zhen Qu, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Hannah Nesser, A. Anthony Bloom, Shuang Ma, John R. Worden, Shaojia Fan, Robert J. Parker, Hartmut Boesch, Ritesh Gautam, Deborah Gordon, Michael D. Moran, Frances Reuland, Claudia A. Octaviano Villasana, and Arlyn Andrews
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 395–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-395-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-395-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate methane emissions and trends for 2010–2017 in the gridded national emission inventories for the United States, Canada, and Mexico by inversion of in situ and satellite methane observations. We find that anthropogenic methane emissions for all three countries are underestimated in the national inventories, largely driven by oil emissions. Anthropogenic methane emissions in the US peak in 2014, in contrast to the report of a steadily decreasing trend over 2010–2017 from the US EPA.
Yuqiang Zhang, Drew Shindell, Karl Seltzer, Lu Shen, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Qiang Zhang, Bo Zheng, Jia Xing, Zhe Jiang, and Lei Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16051–16065, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16051-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we use a global chemical transport model to simulate the effects on global air quality and human health due to emission changes in China from 2010 to 2017. By performing sensitivity analysis, we found that the air pollution control policies not only decrease the air pollutant concentration but also bring significant co-benefits in air quality to downwind regions. The benefits for the improved air pollution are dominated by PM2.5.
Liam Bindle, Randall V. Martin, Matthew J. Cooper, Elizabeth W. Lundgren, Sebastian D. Eastham, Benjamin M. Auer, Thomas L. Clune, Hongjian Weng, Jintai Lin, Lee T. Murray, Jun Meng, Christoph A. Keller, William M. Putman, Steven Pawson, and Daniel J. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5977–5997, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5977-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5977-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric chemistry models like GEOS-Chem are versatile tools widely used in air pollution and climate studies. The simulations used in such studies can be very computationally demanding, and thus it is useful if the model can simulate a specific geographic region at a higher resolution than the rest of the globe. Here, we implement, test, and demonstrate a new variable-resolution capability in GEOS-Chem that is suitable for simulations conducted on supercomputers.
Zhen Qu, Daniel J. Jacob, Lu Shen, Xiao Lu, Yuzhong Zhang, Tia R. Scarpelli, Hannah Nesser, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Joannes D. Maasakkers, A. Anthony Bloom, John R. Worden, Robert J. Parker, and Alba L. Delgado
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14159–14175, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14159-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The recent launch of TROPOMI offers an unprecedented opportunity to quantify the methane budget from a top-down perspective. We use TROPOMI and the more mature GOSAT methane observations to estimate methane emissions and get consistent global budgets. However, TROPOMI shows biases over regions where surface albedo is small and provides less information for the coarse-resolution inversion due to the larger error correlations and spatial variations in the number of observations.
Lee T. Murray, Eric M. Leibensperger, Clara Orbe, Loretta J. Mickley, and Melissa Sulprizio
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5789–5823, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5789-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5789-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Chemical-transport models are tools used to study air pollution and inform public policy. However, they are limited by the availability of archived meteorology. Here, we describe how the GEOS-Chem chemical-transport model may now be driven by meteorology archived from a state-of-the-art general circulation model for past and future climates, allowing it to be used to explore the impact of climate change on air pollution and atmospheric composition.
Hao Guo, Clare M. Flynn, Michael J. Prather, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Louisa Emmons, Forrest Lacey, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Gus Correa, Lee T. Murray, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jason M. St. Clair, Michelle Kim, John Crounse, Glenn Diskin, Joshua DiGangi, Bruce C. Daube, Roisin Commane, Kathryn McKain, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Chelsea Thompson, Thomas F. Hanisco, Donald Blake, Nicola J. Blake, Eric C. Apel, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, James W. Elkins, Eric J. Hintsa, Fred L. Moore, and Steven Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13729–13746, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13729-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13729-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission built a climatology of the chemical composition of tropospheric air parcels throughout the middle of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The level of detail allows us to reconstruct the photochemical budgets of O3 and CH4 over these vast, remote regions. We find that most of the chemical heterogeneity is captured at the resolution used in current global chemistry models and that the majority of reactivity occurs in the
hottest20 % of parcels.
Gongda Lu, Eloise A. Marais, Tuan V. Vu, Jingsha Xu, Zongbo Shi, James D. Lee, Qiang Zhang, Lu Shen, Gan Luo, and Fangqun Yu
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-428, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-428, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Emission controls were imposed in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in northern China in autumn-winter 2017. We find that regional PM2.5 targets (15 % decrease relative to previous year) were exceeded. Our analysis shows that decline in precursor emissions only leads to less than half (43 %) the improved air quality. Most of the change (57 %) is due to interannual variability in meteorology. Stricter emission controls may be necessary in years with unfavourable meteorology.
David R. Lyon, Benjamin Hmiel, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, Katherine A. Roberts, Zachary R. Barkley, Kenneth J. Davis, Natasha L. Miles, Vanessa C. Monteiro, Scott J. Richardson, Stephen Conley, Mackenzie L. Smith, Daniel J. Jacob, Lu Shen, Daniel J. Varon, Aijun Deng, Xander Rudelis, Nikhil Sharma, Kyle T. Story, Adam R. Brandt, Mary Kang, Eric A. Kort, Anthony J. Marchese, and Steven P. Hamburg
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6605–6626, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6605-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6605-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Permian Basin (USA) is the world’s largest oil field. We use tower- and aircraft-based approaches to measure how methane emissions in the Permian Basin changed throughout 2020. In early 2020, 3.3 % of the region’s gas was emitted; then in spring 2020, the loss rate temporarily dropped to 1.9 % as oil price crashed. We find this short-term reduction to be a result of reduced well development, less gas flaring, and fewer abnormal events despite minimal reductions in oil and gas production.
Xiao Lu, Daniel J. Jacob, Yuzhong Zhang, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Lu Shen, Zhen Qu, Tia R. Scarpelli, Hannah Nesser, Robert M. Yantosca, Jianxiong Sheng, Arlyn Andrews, Robert J. Parker, Hartmut Boesch, A. Anthony Bloom, and Shuang Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4637–4657, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4637-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4637-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use an analytical solution to the Bayesian inverse problem to quantitatively compare and combine the information from satellite and in situ observations, and to estimate global methane budget and their trends over the 2010–2017 period. We find that satellite and in situ observations are to a large extent complementary in the inversion for estimating global methane budget, and reveal consistent corrections of regional anthropogenic and wetland methane emissions relative to the prior inventory.
Paul T. Griffiths, Lee T. Murray, Guang Zeng, Youngsub Matthew Shin, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Ian E. Galbally, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, James Keeble, Jane Liu, Omid Moeini, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Naga Oshima, David Tarasick, Simone Tilmes, Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, Paul J. Young, and Prodromos Zanis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4187–4218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the CMIP6 Historical and future simulations for tropospheric ozone, a species which is important for many aspects of atmospheric chemistry. We show that the current generation of models agrees well with observations, being particularly successful in capturing trends in surface ozone and its vertical distribution in the troposphere. We analyse the factors that control ozone and show that they evolve over the period of the CMIP6 experiments.
Vasilii V. Petrenko, Andrew M. Smith, Edward M. Crosier, Roxana Kazemi, Philip Place, Aidan Colton, Bin Yang, Quan Hua, and Lee T. Murray
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 2055–2063, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-2055-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-2055-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents an improved methodology for measurements of atmospheric concentration of carbon-14-containing carbon monoxide (14CO), as well as a 1-year dataset that demonstrates the methodology. Atmospheric 14CO concentration measurements are useful for improving the understanding of spatial and temporal variability of hydroxyl radical concentrations. Key improvements over prior methods include a greatly reduced air sample size and accurate procedural blank characterization.
Yuzhong Zhang, Daniel J. Jacob, Xiao Lu, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Tia R. Scarpelli, Jian-Xiong Sheng, Lu Shen, Zhen Qu, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Jinfeng Chang, A. Anthony Bloom, Shuang Ma, John Worden, Robert J. Parker, and Hartmut Boesch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3643–3666, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3643-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3643-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use 2010–2018 satellite observations of atmospheric methane to interpret the factors controlling atmospheric methane and its accelerating increase during the period. The 2010–2018 increase in global methane emissions is driven by tropical and boreal wetlands and tropical livestock (South Asia, Africa, Brazil), with an insignificant positive trend in emissions from the fossil fuel sector. The peak methane growth rates in 2014–2015 are also contributed by low OH and high fire emissions.
Shaojie Song, Tao Ma, Yuzhong Zhang, Lu Shen, Pengfei Liu, Ke Li, Shixian Zhai, Haotian Zheng, Meng Gao, Jonathan M. Moch, Fengkui Duan, Kebin He, and Michael B. McElroy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 457–481, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-457-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-457-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the atmospheric chemical processes of an important sulfur-containing organic aerosol species, which is produced by the reaction between sulfur dioxide and formaldehyde. We can predict its distribution on a global scale. We find it is particularly rich in East Asia. This aerosol species is more abundant in the colder season partly because of weaker sunlight.
Yang Li, Loretta J. Mickley, and Jed O. Kaplan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 57–68, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-57-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-57-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models predict a shift toward warmer, drier environments in southwestern North America. Under future climate, the two main drivers of dust trends play opposing roles: (1) CO2 fertilization enhances vegetation and, in turn, decreases dust, and (2) increasing land use enhances dust emissions from northern Mexico. In the worst-case scenario, elevated dust concentrations spread widely over the domain by 2100 in spring, suggesting a large climate penalty on air quality and human health.
David S. Stevenson, Alcide Zhao, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Simone Tilmes, Guang Zeng, Lee T. Murray, William J. Collins, Paul T. Griffiths, Sungbo Shim, Larry W. Horowitz, Lori T. Sentman, and Louisa Emmons
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12905–12920, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12905-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12905-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present historical trends in atmospheric oxidizing capacity (OC) since 1850 from the latest generation of global climate models and compare these with estimates from measurements. OC controls levels of many key reactive gases, including methane (CH4). We find small model trends up to 1980, then increases of about 9 % up to 2014, disagreeing with (uncertain) measurement-based trends. Major drivers of OC trends are emissions of CH4, NOx, and CO; these will be important for future CH4 trends.
Ke Li, Daniel J. Jacob, Lu Shen, Xiao Lu, Isabelle De Smedt, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11423–11433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11423-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11423-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Surface summer ozone increased in China from 2013 to 2019 despite new governmental efforts targeting ozone pollution. We find that the ozone increase is mostly due to anthropogenic drivers, although meteorology also plays a role. Further analysis for the North China Plain shows that PM2.5 continued to decrease through 2019, while emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) stayed flat. This could explain the anthropogenic increase in ozone, as PM2.5 scavenges the radical precursors of ozone.
Yang Li, Loretta J. Mickley, Pengfei Liu, and Jed O. Kaplan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8827–8838, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8827-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8827-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Using a coupled vegetation–fire–climate modeling framework, we show a northward shift in forests and increased lightning fire activity in northern US states, including Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. Our findings suggest a large climate penalty on ecosystem, air quality, visibility, and human health in a region valued for its national forests and parks. The fine-scale smoke PM predictions provided in this study should prove useful to human health and environmental assessments.
Haipeng Lin, Xu Feng, Tzung-May Fu, Heng Tian, Yaping Ma, Lijuan Zhang, Daniel J. Jacob, Robert M. Yantosca, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Elizabeth W. Lundgren, Jiawei Zhuang, Qiang Zhang, Xiao Lu, Lin Zhang, Lu Shen, Jianping Guo, Sebastian D. Eastham, and Christoph A. Keller
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3241–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3241-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3241-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Online coupling of meteorology and chemistry models often presents maintenance issues with hard-wired coding. We present WRF-GC, an one-way online coupling of the WRF meteorological model and GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry model for regional atmospheric chemistry and air quality modeling. Our coupling structure allows future versions of either parent model to be immediately integrated into WRF-GC. The WRF-GC model was able to well reproduce regional PM2.5 with greater computational efficiency.
Lu Shen, Daniel J. Jacob, Mauricio Santillana, Xuan Wang, and Wei Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2475–2486, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2475-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2475-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Chemical mechanisms in air quality models tend to get more complicated with time, reflecting both increasing knowledge and the need for greater scope. This objectively improves the models but increases the computational burden. In this work, we present an approach that can reduce the computational cost of chemical integration by 30–40 % while maintaining an accuracy better than 1 %. It retains the complexity of the full mechanism where it is needed and preserves full diagnostic information.
Julie M. Nicely, Bryan N. Duncan, Thomas F. Hanisco, Glenn M. Wolfe, Ross J. Salawitch, Makoto Deushi, Amund S. Haslerud, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas E. Kinnison, Andrew Klekociuk, Michael E. Manyin, Virginie Marécal, Olaf Morgenstern, Lee T. Murray, Gunnar Myhre, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, Andrea Pozzer, Ilaria Quaglia, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Susan Strahan, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Daniel M. Westervelt, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1341–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Differences in methane lifetime among global models are large and poorly understood. We use a neural network method and simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative to quantify the factors influencing methane lifetime spread among models and variations over time. UV photolysis, tropospheric ozone, and nitrogen oxides drive large model differences, while the same factors plus specific humidity contribute to a decreasing trend in methane lifetime between 1980 and 2015.
Shixian Zhai, Daniel J. Jacob, Xuan Wang, Lu Shen, Ke Li, Yuzhong Zhang, Ke Gui, Tianliang Zhao, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11031–11041, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11031-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11031-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Observed annual mean PM2.5 decreased by 30–50 % in China from 2013–2018. However, meteorologically PM2.5 variability complicates trend attribution. We used a stepwise multiple linear regression model to quantitatively separate contributions from anthropogenic emissions and meteorology. Results show that 88 % of the PM2.5 decrease across China is attributable to anthropogenic emission changes, and 12 % is attributable to meteorology.
Rachel F. Silvern, Daniel J. Jacob, Loretta J. Mickley, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Katherine R. Travis, Eloise A. Marais, Ronald C. Cohen, Joshua L. Laughner, Sungyeon Choi, Joanna Joiner, and Lok N. Lamsal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8863–8878, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8863-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8863-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The US EPA reports a steady decrease in nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from fuel combustion over the 2005–2017 period, while satellite observations show a leveling off after 2009, suggesting emission reductions and related air quality gains have halted. We show the sustained decrease in NOx emissions is in fact consistent with observed trends in surface NO2 and ozone concentrations and that the flattening of the satellite trend reflects a growing influence from the non-anthropogenic background.
Lu Shen, Daniel J. Jacob, Xiong Liu, Guanyu Huang, Ke Li, Hong Liao, and Tao Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6551–6560, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6551-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6551-2019, 2019
Lu Shen, Daniel J. Jacob, Loretta J. Mickley, Yuxuan Wang, and Qiang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17489–17496, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17489-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17489-2018, 2018
Eloise A. Marais, Daniel J. Jacob, Sungyeon Choi, Joanna Joiner, Maria Belmonte-Rivas, Ronald C. Cohen, Steffen Beirle, Lee T. Murray, Luke D. Schiferl, Viral Shah, and Lyatt Jaeglé
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17017–17027, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17017-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17017-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We intercompare two new products of global upper tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) retrieved from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). We evaluate these products with aircraft observations from NASA DC8 aircraft campaigns and interpret the useful information these products can provide about nitrogen oxides (NOx) in the global upper troposphere using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model.
Samuel R. Hall, Kirk Ullmann, Michael J. Prather, Clare M. Flynn, Lee T. Murray, Arlene M. Fiore, Gustavo Correa, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jonathan Guth, Béatrice Josse, Johannes Flemming, Vincent Huijnen, N. Luke Abraham, and Alex T. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16809–16828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16809-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16809-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Photolysis (J rates) initiates and drives atmospheric chemistry, and Js are perturbed by factors of 2 by clouds. The NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) Mission provides the first comprehensive observations on how clouds perturb Js through the remote Pacific and Atlantic basins. We compare these cloud-perturbation J statistics with those from nine global chemistry models. While basic patterns agree, there is a large spread across models, and all lack some basic features of the observations.
Jean J. Guo, Arlene M. Fiore, Lee T. Murray, Daniel A. Jaffe, Jordan L. Schnell, Charles T. Moore, and George P. Milly
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12123–12140, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12123-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12123-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We use the GEOS-Chem model to estimate the influence from anthropogenic and background sources to ozone over the USA. Novel findings include the point that year-to-year background variability on the 10 highest observed ozone days is driven mainly by natural sources and not international or intercontinental pollution transport. High positive model biases during summer are associated with regional ozone production. The EPA 3-year average metric falls short of its aim to remove natural variability.
Danny M. Leung, Amos P. K. Tai, Loretta J. Mickley, Jonathan M. Moch, Aaron van Donkelaar, Lu Shen, and Randall V. Martin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6733–6748, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6733-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6733-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates how large-scale weather systems control fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality in China. We show that winter monsoons, onshore winds and frontal rains can drive daily PM2.5 variability in different regions of China. We further project future PM2.5 concentration change by 2050s due to climate change, and verify that climate change has little benefit on future PM2.5 in Beijing, implying cutting down emissions is necessary to mitigate pollutions in megacities of China.
Michael J. Prather, Clare M. Flynn, Xin Zhu, Stephen D. Steenrod, Sarah A. Strode, Arlene M. Fiore, Gustavo Correa, Lee T. Murray, and Jean-Francois Lamarque
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 2653–2668, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2653-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A new protocol for merging in situ atmospheric chemistry measurements with 3-D models is developed. This technique can identify the most reactive air parcels in terms of tropospheric production/loss of O3 & CH4. This approach highlights differences in 6 global chemistry models even with composition specified. Thus in situ measurements from, e.g., NASA's ATom mission can be used to develop a chemical climatology of, not only the key species, but also the rates of key reactions in each air parcel.
Jingqiu Mao, Annmarie Carlton, Ronald C. Cohen, William H. Brune, Steven S. Brown, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jose L. Jimenez, Havala O. T. Pye, Nga Lee Ng, Lu Xu, V. Faye McNeill, Kostas Tsigaridis, Brian C. McDonald, Carsten Warneke, Alex Guenther, Matthew J. Alvarado, Joost de Gouw, Loretta J. Mickley, Eric M. Leibensperger, Rohit Mathur, Christopher G. Nolte, Robert W. Portmann, Nadine Unger, Mika Tosca, and Larry W. Horowitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2615–2651, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2615-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is aimed at discussing progress in evaluating, diagnosing, and improving air quality and climate modeling using comparisons to SAS observations as a guide to thinking about improvements to mechanisms and parameterizations in models.
Daniel H. Cusworth, Loretta J. Mickley, Eric M. Leibensperger, and Michael J. Iacono
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13559–13572, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13559-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13559-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Since 1990, light-scattering pollution known as aerosols have declined as a result of tightening US air quality regulations. Our study finds that US surface solar radiation has increased simultaneously. We establish a link between aerosols and radiation through physical and statistical models. We find the strongest relationship between aerosols, radiation, and climate at a site in the Midwest. Our work underscores the importance of regional pollution on climate in the US and abroad.
Jenny A. Fisher, Lee T. Murray, Dylan B. A. Jones, and Nicholas M. Deutscher
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4129–4144, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4129-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4129-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon monoxide (CO) simulation in atmospheric chemistry models is used for source–receptor analysis, emission inversion, and interpretation of observations. We introduce a major update to CO simulation in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model that removes fundamental inconsistencies relative to the standard model, resolving biases of more than 100 ppb and errors in vertical structure. We also add source tagging of secondary CO and demonstrate it provides added value in low-emission regions.
Yuxuan Wang, Yuanyu Xie, Wenhao Dong, Yi Ming, Jun Wang, and Lu Shen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12827–12843, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12827-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12827-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Besides the well-known large impact on agriculture and water resources, drought is associated with significant adverse effects on air quality. Drought-induced degradation of air quality is largely due to natural processes, offsetting the effort of anthropogenic emission reduction during the past decades. Such adverse impacts should be included in modeling processes under current and future climate for mitigation policy.
Michael J. Prather, Xin Zhu, Clare M. Flynn, Sarah A. Strode, Jose M. Rodriguez, Stephen D. Steenrod, Junhua Liu, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Larry W. Horowitz, Jingqiu Mao, Lee T. Murray, Drew T. Shindell, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9081–9102, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9081-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9081-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new approach for comparing atmospheric chemistry models with measurements based on what these models are used to do, i.e., calculate changes in ozone and methane, prime greenhouse gases. This method anticipates a new type of measurements from the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission. In comparing the mixture of species within air parcels, we focus on those responsible for key chemical changes and weight these parcels by their chemical reactivity.
Tomás Sherwen, Mat J. Evans, Lucy J. Carpenter, Johan A. Schmidt, and Loretta J. Mickley
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1557–1569, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1557-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1557-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We model pre-industrial to present day changes using the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model with halogens (Cl, Br, I). The model better captures pre-industrial O3 observations with halogens included. Halogens buffer the tropospheric forcing of O3 (RFTO3) from pre-industrial to present day, reducing RFTO3 by 0.087 Wm−2. This reduction is greater than that from halogens on stratospheric O3 (−0.05 Wm−2). This suggests that models that do not include halogens will overestimate RFTO3by ~ 25%.
Yuxuan Wang, Beixi Jia, Sing-Chun Wang, Mark Estes, Lu Shen, and Yuanyu Xie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15265–15276, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15265-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15265-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides empirical evidence that the year-to-year variability of summertime ozone over Houston is linked to the Bermuda High (BH) large-scale circulation patterns. It identifies two BH indices that can explain up to 70 % of the interannual variability of summertime ozone in Houston and illustrates the mechanism underlying the BH and ozone linkage. Such a mechanism is tested for applicability to other coastal urban regions along the US Gulf Coast.
Lei Zhu, Daniel J. Jacob, Patrick S. Kim, Jenny A. Fisher, Karen Yu, Katherine R. Travis, Loretta J. Mickley, Robert M. Yantosca, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Isabelle De Smedt, Gonzalo González Abad, Kelly Chance, Can Li, Richard Ferrare, Alan Fried, Johnathan W. Hair, Thomas F. Hanisco, Dirk Richter, Amy Jo Scarino, James Walega, Petter Weibring, and Glenn M. Wolfe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13477–13490, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13477-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13477-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
HCHO column data are widely used as a proxy for VOCs emissions, but validation of the data has been extremely limited. We use accurate aircraft observations to validate and intercompare 6 HCHO retrievals with GEOS-Chem as the intercomparison platform. Retrievals are interconsistent in spatial variability over the SE US and in daily variability, but are biased low by 20–51 %. Our work supports the use of HCHO column as a quantitative proxy for isoprene emission after correction of the low bias.
L. Shen, L. J. Mickley, and A. P. K. Tai
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10925–10938, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10925-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10925-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we have examined the effect of polar jet and Bermuda High on ozone air quality in the eastern United States. In the Midwest and northeast, the poleward shift of jet wind leads to reduced polar jet frequency, resulting in increased ozone there. In the southeast, the influence of Bermuda High on ozone variability depends on the location of its west edge. Westward movement increases the ozone only when the JJA Bermuda High west edge is located west of 85.4°W.
X. Yue, L. J. Mickley, J. A. Logan, R. C. Hudman, M. V. Martin, and R. M. Yantosca
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10033–10055, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10033-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10033-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Based on simulated meteorology from 13 GCMs, we projected future wildfire activity in Alaskan and Canadian ecoregions by the mid-century. The most robust change is the increase of 150-390% in area burned over Alaska and western Canada. The models also predict an increase of 45-90% in the central and southern Canadian ecoregions, but a decrease of up to 50% in northern Canada. We further quantify how the changes in wildfire emissions may affect ozone concentrations in North America.
P. Achakulwisut, L. J. Mickley, L. T. Murray, A. P. K. Tai, J. O. Kaplan, and B. Alexander
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7977–7998, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7977-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7977-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The atmosphere’s oxidative capacity determines the lifetime of many trace gases important to climate, chemistry, and human health. Yet uncertainties remain about its past variations, its controlling factors, and the radiative forcing of short-lived species it influences. To reduce these uncertainties, we must better quantify the natural emissions and chemical reaction mechanisms of organic compounds in the atmosphere, which play a role in governing the oxidative capacity.
L. T. Murray, L. J. Mickley, J. O. Kaplan, E. D. Sofen, M. Pfeiffer, and B. Alexander
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3589–3622, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3589-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3589-2014, 2014
H. Jiang, H. Liao, H. O. T. Pye, S. Wu, L. J. Mickley, J. H. Seinfeld, and X. Y. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7937–7960, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7937-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7937-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Aerosols | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Chemistry (chemical composition and reactions)
The role of naphthalene and its derivatives in the formation of secondary organic aerosol in the Yangtze River Delta region, China
Unveiling the optimal regression model for source apportionment of the oxidative potential of PM10
Investigating the contribution of grown new particles to cloud condensation nuclei with largely varying preexisting particles – Part 2: Modeling chemical drivers and 3-D new particle formation occurrence
Technical note: Influence of different averaging metrics and temporal resolutions on the aerosol pH calculated by thermodynamic modeling
Dual roles of the inorganic aqueous phase on secondary organic aerosol growth from benzene and phenol
Global source apportionment of aerosols into major emission regions and sectors over 1850–2017
Modeling atmospheric brown carbon in the GISS ModelE Earth system model
Observation-constrained kinetic modeling of isoprene SOA formation in the atmosphere
Significant impact of urban tree biogenic emissions on air quality estimated by a bottom-up inventory and chemistry transport modeling
Secondary organic aerosols derived from intermediate-volatility n-alkanes adopt low-viscous phase state
Cooling radiative forcing effect enhancement of atmospheric amines-mineral particle caused by heterogeneous uptake and oxidation
Modeling the drivers of fine PM pollution over Central Europe: impacts and contributions of emissions from different sources
Reaction of SO3 with H2SO4 and its implications for aerosol particle formation in the gas phase and at the air–water interface
Weakened aerosol–radiation interaction exacerbating ozone pollution in eastern China since China's clean air actions
Uncertainties from biomass burning aerosols in air quality models obscure public health impacts in Southeast Asia
Oxidative potential apportionment of atmospheric PM1: a new approach combining high-sensitive online analysers for chemical composition and offline OP measurement technique
Aqueous-phase chemistry of glyoxal with multifunctional reduced nitrogen compounds: a potential missing route for secondary brown carbon
Global estimates of reactive nitrogen components during 2000–2100 based on the multi-stage model
An updated modeling framework to simulate Los Angeles air quality – Part 1: Model development, evaluation, and source apportionment
Frequent haze events associated with transport and stagnation over the corridor between the North China Plain and Yangtze River Delta
Evaluation of WRF-Chem-simulated meteorology and aerosols over northern India during the severe pollution episode of 2016
How well are aerosol–cloud interactions represented in climate models? – Part 1: Understanding the sulfate aerosol production from the 2014–15 Holuhraun eruption
pH regulates the formation of organosulfates and inorganic sulfate from organic peroxide reaction with dissolved SO2 in aquatic media
Technical note: Accurate, reliable, and high-resolution air quality predictions by improving the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service using a novel statistical post-processing method
Analysis of secondary inorganic aerosols over the Greater Area of Athens using the EPISODE-CityChem source dispersion and photochemistry model
Contribution of intermediate-volatility organic compounds from on-road transport to secondary organic aerosol levels in Europe
Source-resolved atmospheric metal emissions, concentrations, and their deposition fluxes into the East Asian Seas
Development of an integrated model framework for multi-air-pollutant exposure assessments in high-density cities
CAMx–UNIPAR simulation of secondary organic aerosol mass formed from multiphase reactions of hydrocarbons under the Central Valley urban atmospheres of California
Impact of urbanization on fine particulate matter concentrations over central Europe
Measurement report: Assessing the impacts of emission uncertainty on aerosol optical properties and radiative forcing from biomass burning in peninsular Southeast Asia
The Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (Emissions-MIP): quantifying model sensitivity to emission characteristics
Dynamics-based estimates of decline trend with fine temporal variations in China's PM2.5 emissions
Effects of simulated secondary organic aerosol water on PM1 levels and composition over the US
Reactive organic carbon air emissions from mobile sources in the United States
Development and evaluation of processes affecting simulation of diel fine particulate matter variation in the GEOS-Chem model
Substantially positive contributions of new particle formation to cloud condensation nuclei under low supersaturation in China based on numerical model improvements
Evolution of atmospheric age of particles and its implications for the formation of a severe haze event in eastern China
A multimodel evaluation of the potential impact of shipping on particle species in the Mediterranean Sea
How does tropospheric VOC chemistry affect climate? An investigation of preindustrial control simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 2
Anthropogenic amplification of biogenic secondary organic aerosol production
A dynamic parameterization of sulfuric acid–dimethylamine nucleation and its application in three-dimensional modeling
Modeling dust mineralogical composition: sensitivity to soil mineralogy atlases and their expected climate impacts
Assessment of the impacts of cloud chemistry on surface SO2 and sulfate levels in typical regions of China
Impact of Landes forest fires on air quality in France during the 2022 summer
Global nitrogen and sulfur deposition mapping using a measurement–model fusion approach
Comprehensive simulations of new particle formation events in Beijing with a cluster dynamics–multicomponent sectional model
Implications of differences between recent anthropogenic aerosol emission inventories for diagnosed AOD and radiative forcing from 1990 to 2019
Unbalanced emission reductions of different species and sectors in China during COVID-19 lockdown derived by multi-species surface observation assimilation
Simulating organic aerosol in Delhi with WRF-Chem using the volatility-basis-set approach: exploring model uncertainty with a Gaussian process emulator
Fei Ye, Jingyi Li, Yaqin Gao, Hongli Wang, Jingyu An, Cheng Huang, Song Guo, Keding Lu, Kangjia Gong, Haowen Zhang, Momei Qin, and Jianlin Hu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7467–7479, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7467-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7467-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Naphthalene (Nap) and methylnaphthalene (MN) are key precursors of secondary organic aerosol (SOA), yet their sources and sinks are often inadequately represented in air quality models. In this study, we incorporated detailed emissions, gas-phase chemistry, and SOA parameterization of Nap and MN into CMAQ to address this issue. The findings revealed remarkably high SOA formation potentials for these compounds despite their low emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region during summer.
Vy Dinh Ngoc Thuy, Jean-Luc Jaffrezo, Ian Hough, Pamela A. Dominutti, Guillaume Salque Moreton, Grégory Gille, Florie Francony, Arabelle Patron-Anquez, Olivier Favez, and Gaëlle Uzu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7261–7282, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The capacity of particulate matter (PM) to generate reactive oxygen species in vivo is represented by oxidative potential (OP). This study focuses on finding the appropriate model to evaluate the oxidative character of PM sources in six sites using the PM sources and OP. Eight regression techniques are introduced to assess the OP of PM. The study highlights the importance of selecting a model according to the input data characteristics and establishes some recommendations for the procedure.
Ming Chu, Xing Wei, Shangfei Hai, Yang Gao, Huiwang Gao, Yujiao Zhu, Biwu Chu, Nan Ma, Juan Hong, Yele Sun, and Xiaohong Yao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6769–6786, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6769-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6769-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We used a 20-bin WRF-Chem model to simulate NPF events in the NCP during a three-week observational period in the summer of 2019. The model was able to reproduce the observations during June 29–July 6, which was characterized by a high frequency of NPF occurrence.
Haoqi Wang, Xiao Tian, Wanting Zhao, Jiacheng Li, Haoyu Yu, Yinchang Feng, and Shaojie Song
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6583–6592, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
pH is a key property of ambient aerosols, which affect many atmospheric processes. As aerosol pH is a non-conservative parameter, diverse averaging metrics and temporal resolutions may influence the pH values calculated by thermodynamic models. This technical note seeks to quantitatively evaluate the average pH using varied metrics and resolutions. The ultimate goal is to establish standardized reporting practices in future research endeavors.
Jiwon Choi, Myoseon Jang, and Spencer Blau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6567–6582, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Persistent phenoxy radical (PPR), formed by phenol gas oxidation and its aqueous reaction, catalytically destroys O3 and retards secondary organic aerosol (SOA) growth. Explicit gas mechanisms including the formation of PPR and low-volatility products from the oxidation of phenol or benzene are applied to the UNIPAR model to predict SOA mass via multiphase reactions of precursors. Aqueous reactions of reactive organics increase SOA mass but retard SOA growth via heterogeneously formed PPR.
Yang Yang, Shaoxuan Mou, Hailong Wang, Pinya Wang, Baojie Li, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6509–6523, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6509-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6509-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The variations in anthropogenic aerosol concentrations and source contributions and their subsequent radiative impact in major emission regions during historical periods are quantified based on an aerosol-tagging system in E3SMv1. Due to the industrial development and implementation of economic policies, sources of anthropogenic aerosols show different variations, which has important implications for pollution prevention and control measures and decision-making for global collaboration.
Maegan A. DeLessio, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Jacek Chowdhary, and Gregory L. Schuster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6275–6304, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6275-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6275-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the first explicit representation of brown carbon aerosols in the GISS ModelE Earth system model (ESM). Model sensitivity to a range of brown carbon parameters and model performance compared to AERONET and MODIS retrievals of total aerosol properties were assessed. A summary of best practices for incorporating brown carbon into ModelE is also included.
Chuanyang Shen, Xiaoyan Yang, Joel Thornton, John Shilling, Chenyang Bi, Gabriel Isaacman-VanWertz, and Haofei Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6153–6175, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6153-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6153-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, a condensed multiphase isoprene oxidation mechanism was developed to simulate isoprene SOA formation from chamber and field studies. Our results show that the measured isoprene SOA mass concentrations can be reasonably reproduced. The simulation results indicate that multifunctional low-volatility products contribute significantly to total isoprene SOA. Our findings emphasize that the pathways to produce these low-volatility species should be considered in models.
Alice Maison, Lya Lugon, Soo-Jin Park, Alexia Baudic, Christopher Cantrell, Florian Couvidat, Barbara D'Anna, Claudia Di Biagio, Aline Gratien, Valérie Gros, Carmen Kalalian, Julien Kammer, Vincent Michoud, Jean-Eudes Petit, Marwa Shahin, Leila Simon, Myrto Valari, Jérémy Vigneron, Andrée Tuzet, and Karine Sartelet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6011–6046, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the development of a bottom-up inventory of urban tree biogenic emissions. Emissions are computed for each tree based on their location and characteristics and are integrated in the regional air quality model WRF-CHIMERE. The impact of these biogenic emissions on air quality is quantified for June–July 2022. Over Paris city, urban trees increase the concentrations of particulate organic matter by 4.6 %, of PM2.5 by 0.6 %, and of ozone by 1.0 % on average over 2 months.
Tommaso Galeazzo, Bernard Aumont, Marie Camredon, Richard Valorso, Yong B. Lim, Paul J. Ziemann, and Manabu Shiraiwa
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5549–5565, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5549-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5549-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) derived from n-alkanes is a major component of anthropogenic particulate matter. We provide an analysis of n-alkane SOA by chemistry modeling, machine learning, and laboratory experiments, showing that n-alkane SOA adopts low-viscous semi-solid or liquid states. Our results indicate few kinetic limitations of mass accommodation in SOA formation, supporting the application of equilibrium partitioning for simulating n-alkane SOA in large-scale atmospheric models.
Weina Zhang, Jianhua Mai, Zhichao Fan, Yongpeng Ji, Yuemeng Ji, Guiying Li, Yanpeng Gao, and Taicheng An
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1048, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1048, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies show distinctive RFE of AOP-mineral mixed particles from individual mineral or AOP particles. This study reveals heterogeneous oxidation causes further RFE enhancement of amine-mineral mixed particle. Note that RFE increment is higher under clean condition than that under polluted condition, which is contributed to high-oxygen-content product. The enhanced RFE of amine-mineral particle caused by heterogenous oxidation is expected to alleviate warming effect.
Lukáš Bartík, Peter Huszár, Jan Karlický, Ondřej Vlček, and Kryštof Eben
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4347–4387, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4347-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The presented study deals with the attribution of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations to anthropogenic emissions over Central Europe using regional-scale models. It calculates the present-day contributions of different emissions sectors to concentrations of PM2.5 and its secondary components. Moreover, the study investigates the effect of chemical nonlinearities by using multiple source attribution methods and secondary organic aerosol calculation methods.
Rui Wang, Yang Cheng, Shasha Chen, Rongrong Li, Yue Hu, Xiaokai Guo, Tianlei Zhang, Fengmin Song, and Hao Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4029–4046, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4029-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4029-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We used quantum chemical calculations, Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics simulations, and the ACDC kinetic model to characterize SO3–H2SO4 interaction in the gas phase and at the air–water interface and to study the effect of H2S2O7 on H2SO4–NH3-based clusters. The work expands our understanding of new pathways for the loss of SO3 in acidic polluted areas and helps reveal some missing sources of NPF in metropolitan industrial regions and understand the atmospheric organic–sulfur cycle better.
Hao Yang, Lei Chen, Hong Liao, Jia Zhu, Wenjie Wang, and Xin Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4001–4015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4001-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4001-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study quantifies the response of aerosol–radiation interaction (ARI) to anthropogenic emission reduction from 2013 to 2017, with the main focus on the contribution to changed O3 concentrations over eastern China both in summer and winter using the WRF-Chem model. The weakened ARI due to decreased anthropogenic emission aggravates the summer (winter) O3 pollution by +0.81 ppb (+0.63 ppb), averaged over eastern China.
Margaret R. Marvin, Paul I. Palmer, Fei Yao, Mohd Talib Latif, and Md Firoz Khan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3699–3715, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use an atmospheric chemistry model to investigate aerosols emitted from fire activity across Southeast Asia. We find that the limited nature of measurements in this region leads to large uncertainties that significantly hinder the model representation of these aerosols and their impacts on air quality. As a result, the number of monthly attributable deaths is underestimated by as many as 4500, particularly in March at the peak of the mainland burning season.
Julie Camman, Benjamin Chazeau, Nicolas Marchand, Amandine Durand, Grégory Gille, Ludovic Lanzi, Jean-Luc Jaffrezo, Henri Wortham, and Gaëlle Uzu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3257–3278, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3257-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Fine particle (PM1) pollution is a major health issue in the city of Marseille, which is subject to numerous pollution sources. Sampling carried out during the summer enabled a fine characterization of the PM1 sources and their oxidative potential, a promising new metric as a proxy for health impact. PM1 came mainly from combustion sources, secondary ammonium sulfate, and organic nitrate, while the oxidative potential of PM1 came from these sources and from resuspended dust in the atmosphere.
Yuemeng Ji, Zhang Shi, Wenjian Li, Jiaxin Wang, Qiuju Shi, Yixin Li, Lei Gao, Ruize Ma, Weijun Lu, Lulu Xu, Yanpeng Gao, Guiying Li, and Taicheng An
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3079–3091, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The formation mechanisms for secondary brown carbon (SBrC) contributed by multifunctional reduced nitrogen compounds (RNCs) remain unclear. Hence, from combined laboratory experiments and quantum chemical calculations, we investigated the heterogeneous reactions of glyoxal (GL) with multifunctional RNCs, which are driven by four-step indirect nucleophilic addition reactions. Our results show a possible missing source for SBrC formation on urban, regional, and global scales.
Rui Li, Yining Gao, Lijia Zhang, Yubing Shen, and Gehui Wang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-69, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-69, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A three-stage model was developed to obtain the global maps of reactive nitrogen components during 2000–2100. The results implied CV R2 values of four species showed satisfied performance (R2 > 0.55). Most of reactive nitrogen components except NH3 in China showed increases during 2000–2013. In the future scenarios, SSP3-7.0 (traditional energy scenario) and SSP1-2.6 (carbon neutrality scenario) showed the highest and lowest reactive nitrogen component concentrations, respectively.
Elyse A. Pennington, Yuan Wang, Benjamin C. Schulze, Karl M. Seltzer, Jiani Yang, Bin Zhao, Zhe Jiang, Hongru Shi, Melissa Venecek, Daniel Chau, Benjamin N. Murphy, Christopher M. Kenseth, Ryan X. Ward, Havala O. T. Pye, and John H. Seinfeld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2345–2363, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2345-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2345-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To assess the air quality in Los Angeles (LA), we improved the CMAQ model by using dynamic traffic emissions and new secondary organic aerosol schemes to represent volatile chemical products. Source apportionment demonstrates that the urban areas of the LA Basin and vicinity are NOx-saturated, with the largest sensitivity of O3 to changes in volatile organic compounds in the urban core. The improvement and remaining issues shed light on the future direction of the model development.
Feifan Yan, Hang Su, Yafang Cheng, Rujin Huang, Hong Liao, Ting Yang, Yuanyuan Zhu, Shaoqing Zhang, Lifang Sheng, Wenbin Kou, Xinran Zeng, Shengnan Xiang, Xiaohong Yao, Huiwang Gao, and Yang Gao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2365–2376, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2365-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
PM2.5 pollution is a major air quality issue deteriorating human health, and previous studies mostly focus on regions like the North China Plain and Yangtze River Delta. However, the characteristics of PM2.5 concentrations between these two regions are studied less often. Focusing on the transport corridor region, we identify an interesting seesaw transport phenomenon with stagnant weather conditions, conducive to PM2.5 accumulation over this region, resulting in large health effects.
Prerita Agarwal, David S. Stevenson, and Mathew R. Heal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2239–2266, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2239-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Air pollution levels across northern India are amongst some of the worst in the world, with episodic and hazardous haze events. Here, the ability of the WRF-Chem model to predict air quality over northern India is assessed against several datasets. Whilst surface wind speed and particle pollution peaks are over- and underestimated, respectively, meteorology and aerosol trends are adequately captured, and we conclude it is suitable for investigating severe particle pollution events.
George Jordan, Florent Malavelle, Ying Chen, Amy Peace, Eliza Duncan, Daniel G. Partridge, Paul Kim, Duncan Watson-Parris, Toshihiko Takemura, David Neubauer, Gunnar Myhre, Ragnhild Skeie, Anton Laakso, and James Haywood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1939–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2014–15 Holuhraun eruption caused a huge aerosol plume in an otherwise unpolluted region, providing a chance to study how aerosol alters cloud properties. This two-part study uses observations and models to quantify this relationship’s impact on the Earth’s energy budget. Part 1 suggests the models capture the observed spatial and chemical evolution of the plume, yet no model plume is exact. Understanding these differences is key for Part 2, where changes to cloud properties are explored.
Lin Du, Xiaofan Lv, Makroni Lily, Kun Li, and Narcisse Tsona Tchinda
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1841–1853, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1841-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1841-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the pH effect on the reaction of dissolved SO2 with selected organic peroxides. Results show that the formation of organic and/or inorganic sulfate from these peroxides strongly depends on their electronic structures, and these processes are likely to alter the chemical composition of dissolved organic matter in different ways. The rate constants of these reactions exhibit positive pH and temperature dependencies within pH 1–10 and 240–340 K ranges.
Angelo Riccio and Elena Chianese
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1673–1689, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Starting from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), we provided a novel ensemble statistical post-processing approach to improve their air quality predictions. Our approach is able to provide reliable short-term forecasts of pollutant concentrations, which is a key challenge in supporting national authorities in their tasks related to EU Air Quality Directives, such as planning and reporting the state of air quality to the citizens.
Stelios Myriokefalitakis, Matthias Karl, Kim Andreas Weiss, Dimitris Karagiannis, Eleni Athanasopoulou, Anastasia Kakouri, Aikaterini Bougiatioti, Eleni Liakakou, Iasonas Stavroulas, Georgios Papangelis, Georgios Grivas, Despina Paraskevopoulou, Orestis Speyer, Nikolaos Mihalopoulos, and Evangelos Gerasopoulos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2798, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A state-of-the-art thermodynamic model has been coupled to the source dispersion and photochemistry city-scale chemistry transport model EPISODE-CityChem to determine the equilibrium between the inorganic gas and aerosol phases over the Greater Area of Athens, Greece. Simulations denote that nitrate formation strongly depends on the local nitrogen oxide emissions, along with the ambient temperature, the relative humidity, the photochemical activity, and the presence of nonvolatile cations.
Stella E. I. Manavi and Spyros N. Pandis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 891–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-891-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-891-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Organic vapors of intermediate volatility have often been neglected as sources of atmospheric organic aerosol. In this work we use a new approach for their simulation and quantify the contribution of these compounds emitted by transportation sources (gasoline and diesel vehicles) to particulate matter over Europe. The estimated secondary organic aerosol levels are on average 60 % higher than predicted by previous approaches. However, these estimates are probably lower limits.
Shenglan Jiang, Yan Zhang, Guangyuan Yu, Zimin Han, Junri Zhao, Tianle Zhang, and Mei Zheng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-155, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-155, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to provide gridded data on sea-wide concentrations, deposition fluxes, and soluble deposition fluxes with detailed source categories of metals by the modified CMAQ model. We developed a monthly emission inventory of six metals – Fe, Al, V, Ni, Zn, and Cu – from land anthropogenic, ship, and dust sources in East Asia in 2017. Our results revealed the contribution of each source to the emissions, concentrations, and deposition fluxes of metals in the East Asian seas.
Zhiyuan Li, Kin-Fai Ho, Harry Fung Lee, and Steve Hung Lam Yim
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 649–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-649-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-649-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed an integrated model framework for accurate multi-air-pollutant exposure assessments in high-density and high-rise cities. Following the proposed integrated model framework, we established multi-air-pollutant exposure models for four major PM10 chemical species as well as four criteria air pollutants with R2 values ranging from 0.73 to 0.93. The proposed framework serves as an important tool for combined exposure assessment in epidemiological studies.
Yujin Jo, Myoseon Jang, Sanghee Han, Azad Madhu, Bonyoung Koo, Yiqin Jia, Zechen Yu, Soontae Kim, and Jinsoo Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 487–508, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-487-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-487-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The CAMx–UNIPAR model simulated the SOA budget formed via multiphase reactions of hydrocarbons and the impact of emissions and climate on SOA characteristics under California’s urban environments during winter 2018. SOA growth was dominated by daytime oxidation of long-chain alkanes and nighttime terpene oxidation with O3 and NO−3 radicals. The spatial distributions of anthropogenic SOA were affected by the northwesterly wind, whereas those of biogenic SOA were insensitive to wind directions.
Peter Huszar, Alvaro Patricio Prieto Perez, Lukáš Bartík, Jan Karlický, and Anahi Villalba-Pradas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 397–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-397-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-397-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Urbanization transforms rural land into artificial land, while due to human activities, it also introduces a great quantity of emissions. We quantify the impact of urbanization on the final particulate matter pollutant levels by looking not only at these emissions, but also at the way urban land cover influences meteorological conditions, how the removal of pollutants changes due to urban land cover, and how biogenic emissions from vegetation change due to less vegetation in urban areas.
Yinbao Jin, Yiming Liu, Xiao Lu, Xiaoyang Chen, Ao Shen, Haofan Wang, Yinping Cui, Yifei Xu, Siting Li, Jian Liu, Ming Zhang, Yingying Ma, and Qi Fan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 367–395, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-367-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-367-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to address these issues by evaluating eight independent biomass burning (BB) emission inventories (GFED, FINN1.5, FINN2.5 MOS, FINN2.5 MOSVIS, GFAS, FEER, QFED, and IS4FIRES) using the WRF-Chem model and analyzing their impact on aerosol optical properties (AOPs) and direct radiative forcing (DRF) during wildfire events in peninsular Southeast Asia (PSEA) that occurred in March 2019.
Hamza Ahsan, Hailong Wang, Jingbo Wu, Mingxuan Wu, Steven J. Smith, Susanne Bauer, Harrison Suchyta, Dirk Olivié, Gunnar Myhre, Hitoshi Matsui, Huisheng Bian, Jean-François Lamarque, Ken Carslaw, Larry Horowitz, Leighton Regayre, Mian Chin, Michael Schulz, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Vaishali Naik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14779–14799, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14779-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the impact of the assumed effective height of SO2 injection, SO2 and BC emission seasonality, and the assumed fraction of SO2 emissions injected as SO4 on climate and chemistry model results. We find that the SO2 injection height has a large impact on surface SO2 concentrations and, in some models, radiative flux. These assumptions are a
hiddensource of inter-model variability and may be leading to bias in some climate model results.
Zhen Peng, Lili Lei, Zhe-Min Tan, Meigen Zhang, Aijun Ding, and Xingxia Kou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14505–14520, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Annual PM2.5 emissions in China consistently decreased by about 3% to 5% from 2017 to 2020 with spatial variations and seasonal dependencies. High-temporal-resolution and dynamics-based PM2.5 emission estimates provide quantitative diurnal variations for each season. Significant reductions in PM2.5 emissions in the North China Plain and northeast of China in 2020 were caused by COVID-19.
Stylianos Kakavas, Spyros N. Pandis, and Athanasios Nenes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13555–13564, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13555-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13555-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Water uptake from organic species in aerosol can affect the partitioning of semi-volatile inorganic compounds but are not considered in global and chemical transport models. We address this with a version of the PM-CAMx model that considers such organic water effects and use it to carry out 1-year aerosol simulations over the continental US. We show that such organic water impacts can increase dry PM1 levels by up to 2 μg m-3 when RH levels and PM1 concentrations are high.
Benjamin N. Murphy, Darrell Sonntag, Karl M. Seltzer, Havala O. T. Pye, Christine Allen, Evan Murray, Claudia Toro, Drew R. Gentner, Cheng Huang, Shantanu Jathar, Li Li, Andrew A. May, and Allen L. Robinson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13469–13483, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13469-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13469-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We update methods for calculating organic particle and vapor emissions from mobile sources in the USA. Conventionally, particulate matter (PM) and volatile organic carbon (VOC) are speciated without consideration of primary semivolatile emissions. Our methods integrate state-of-the-science speciation profiles and correct for common artifacts when sampling emissions in a laboratory. We quantify impacts of the emission updates on ambient pollution with the Community Multiscale Air Quality model.
Yanshun Li, Randall V. Martin, Chi Li, Brian L. Boys, Aaron van Donkelaar, Jun Meng, and Jeffrey R. Pierce
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 12525–12543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed and evaluated processes affecting within-day (diel) variability in PM2.5 concentrations in a chemical transport model over the contiguous US. Diel variability in PM2.5 for the contiguous US is driven by early-morning accumulation into a shallow mixed layer, decreases from mid-morning through afternoon with mixed-layer growth, increases from mid-afternoon through evening as the mixed-layer collapses, and decreases overnight as emissions decrease.
Chupeng Zhang, Shangfei Hai, Yang Gao, Yuhang Wang, Shaoqing Zhang, Lifang Sheng, Bin Zhao, Shuxiao Wang, Jingkun Jiang, Xin Huang, Xiaojing Shen, Junying Sun, Aura Lupascu, Manish Shrivastava, Jerome D. Fast, Wenxuan Cheng, Xiuwen Guo, Ming Chu, Nan Ma, Juan Hong, Qiaoqiao Wang, Xiaohong Yao, and Huiwang Gao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10713–10730, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10713-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10713-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
New particle formation is an important source of atmospheric particles, exerting critical influences on global climate. Numerical models are vital tools to understanding atmospheric particle evolution, which, however, suffer from large biases in simulating particle numbers. Here we improve the model chemical processes governing particle sizes and compositions. The improved model reveals substantial contributions of newly formed particles to climate through effects on cloud condensation nuclei.
Xiaodong Xie, Jianlin Hu, Momei Qin, Song Guo, Min Hu, Dongsheng Ji, Hongli Wang, Shengrong Lou, Cheng Huang, Chong Liu, Hongliang Zhang, Qi Ying, Hong Liao, and Yuanhang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10563–10578, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10563-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10563-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric age of particles reflects how long particles have been formed and suspended in the atmosphere, which is closely associated with the evolution processes of particles. An analysis of the atmospheric age of PM2.5 provides a unique perspective on the evolution processes of different PM2.5 components. The results also shed lights on how to design effective emission control actions under unfavorable meteorological conditions.
Lea Fink, Matthias Karl, Volker Matthias, Sonia Oppo, Richard Kranenburg, Jeroen Kuenen, Sara Jutterström, Jana Moldanova, Elisa Majamäki, and Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10163–10189, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10163-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10163-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Mediterranean Sea is a heavily trafficked shipping area, and air quality monitoring stations in numerous cities along the Mediterranean coast have detected high levels of air pollutants originating from shipping emissions. The current study investigates how existing restrictions on shipping-related emissions to the atmosphere ensure compliance with legislation. Focus was laid on fine particles and particle species, which were simulated with five different chemical transport models.
Noah A. Stanton and Neil F. Tandon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9191–9216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9191-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9191-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Chemistry in Earth’s atmosphere has a potentially strong but very uncertain impact on climate. Past attempts to fully model chemistry in Earth’s troposphere (the lowest layer of the atmosphere) typically simplified the representation of Earth’s surface, which in turn limited the ability to simulate changes in climate. The cutting-edge model that we use in this study does not require such simplification, and we use it to examine the climate effects of chemical interactions in the troposphere.
Yiqi Zheng, Larry W. Horowitz, Raymond Menzel, David J. Paynter, Vaishali Naik, Jingyi Li, and Jingqiu Mao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8993–9007, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8993-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8993-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Biogenic secondary organic aerosols (SOAs) account for a large fraction of fine aerosol at the global scale. Using long-term measurements and a climate model, we investigate anthropogenic impacts on biogenic SOA at both decadal and centennial timescales. Results show that despite reductions in biogenic precursor emissions, SOA has been strongly amplified by anthropogenic emissions since the preindustrial era and exerts a cooling radiative forcing.
Yuyang Li, Jiewen Shen, Bin Zhao, Runlong Cai, Shuxiao Wang, Yang Gao, Manish Shrivastava, Da Gao, Jun Zheng, Markku Kulmala, and Jingkun Jiang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8789–8804, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We set up a new parameterization for 1.4 nm particle formation rates from sulfuric acid–dimethylamine (SA–DMA) nucleation, fully including the effects of coagulation scavenging and cluster stability. Incorporating the new parameterization into 3-D chemical transport models, we achieved better consistencies between simulation results and observation data. This new parameterization provides new insights into atmospheric nucleation simulations and its effects on atmospheric pollution or health.
María Gonçalves Ageitos, Vincenzo Obiso, Ron L. Miller, Oriol Jorba, Martina Klose, Matt Dawson, Yves Balkanski, Jan Perlwitz, Sara Basart, Enza Di Tomaso, Jerónimo Escribano, Francesca Macchia, Gilbert Montané, Natalie M. Mahowald, Robert O. Green, David R. Thompson, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8623–8657, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8623-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8623-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Dust aerosols affect our climate differently depending on their mineral composition. We include dust mineralogy in an atmospheric model considering two existing soil maps, which still have large associated uncertainties. The soil data and the distribution of the minerals in different aerosol sizes are key to our model performance. We find significant regional variations in climate-relevant variables, which supports including mineralogy in our current models and the need for improved soil maps.
Jianyan Lu, Sunling Gong, Jian Zhang, Jianmin Chen, Lei Zhang, and Chunhong Zhou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8021–8037, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8021-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8021-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
WRF/CUACE was used to assess the cloud chemistry contribution in China. Firstly, the CUACE cloud chemistry scheme was found to reproduce well the cloud processing and consumption of H2O2, O3, and SO2, as well as the increase of sulfate. Secondly, during cloud availability in December under a heavy pollution episode, sulfate production increased 60–95 % and SO2 was reduced by over 80 %. This study provides a way to analyze the phenomenon of overestimation of SO2 in many chemical transport models.
Laurent Menut, Arineh Cholakian, Guillaume Siour, Rémy Lapere, Romain Pennel, Sylvain Mailler, and Bertrand Bessagnet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7281–7296, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7281-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7281-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study is about the wildfires occurring in France during the summer 2022. We study the forest fires that took place in the Landes during the summer of 2022. We show the direct impact of these fires on the air quality, especially downstream of the smoke plume towards the Paris region. We quantify the impact of these fires on the pollutants peak concentrations and the possible exceedance of thresholds.
Hannah J. Rubin, Joshua S. Fu, Frank Dentener, Rui Li, Kan Huang, and Hongbo Fu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7091–7102, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7091-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7091-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We update the 2010 global deposition budget for nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) with new regional wet deposition measurements, improving the ensemble results of 11 global chemistry transport models from HTAP II. Our study demonstrates that a global measurement–model fusion approach can substantially improve N and S deposition model estimates at a regional scale and represents a step forward toward the WMO goal of global fusion products for accurately mapping harmful air pollution.
Chenxi Li, Yuyang Li, Xiaoxiao Li, Runlong Cai, Yaxin Fan, Xiaohui Qiao, Rujing Yin, Chao Yan, Yishuo Guo, Yongchun Liu, Jun Zheng, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Markku Kulmala, Huayun Xiao, and Jingkun Jiang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6879–6896, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6879-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6879-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
New particle formation and growth in polluted environments are not fully understood despite intensive research. We applied a cluster dynamics–multicomponent sectional model to simulate the new particle formation events observed in Beijing, China. The simulation approximately captures how the events evolve. Further diagnosis shows that the oxygenated organic molecules may have been under-detected, and modulating their abundance leads to significantly improved simulation–observation agreement.
Marianne Tronstad Lund, Gunnar Myhre, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, and Zbigniew Klimont
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6647–6662, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6647-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6647-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we show that differences, in magnitude and trend, between recent global anthropogenic emission inventories have a notable influence on simulated regional abundances of anthropogenic aerosol over the 1990–2019 period. This, in turn, affects estimates of radiative forcing. Our findings form a basis for comparing existing and upcoming studies on anthropogenic aerosols using different emission inventories.
Lei Kong, Xiao Tang, Jiang Zhu, Zifa Wang, Yele Sun, Pingqing Fu, Meng Gao, Huangjian Wu, Miaomiao Lu, Qian Wu, Shuyuan Huang, Wenxuan Sui, Jie Li, Xiaole Pan, Lin Wu, Hajime Akimoto, and Gregory R. Carmichael
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6217–6240, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6217-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6217-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A multi-air-pollutant inversion system has been developed in this study to estimate emission changes in China during COVID-19 lockdown. The results demonstrate that the lockdown is largely a nationwide road traffic control measure with NOx emissions decreasing by ~40 %. Emissions of other species only decreased by ~10 % due to smaller effects of lockdown on other sectors. Assessment results further indicate that the lockdown only had limited effects on the control of PM2.5 and O3 in China.
Ernesto Reyes-Villegas, Douglas Lowe, Jill S. Johnson, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Eoghan Darbyshire, Michael Flynn, James D. Allan, Hugh Coe, Ying Chen, Oliver Wild, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Alex Archibald, Siddhartha Singh, Manish Shrivastava, Rahul A. Zaveri, Vikas Singh, Gufran Beig, Ranjeet Sokhi, and Gordon McFiggans
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5763–5782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5763-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5763-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Organic aerosols (OAs), their sources and their processes remain poorly understood. The volatility basis set (VBS) approach, implemented in air quality models such as WRF-Chem, can be a useful tool to describe primary OA (POA) production and aging. However, the main disadvantage is its complexity. We used a Gaussian process simulator to reproduce model results and to estimate the sources of model uncertainty. We do this by comparing the outputs with OA observations made at Delhi, India, in 2018.
Cited articles
Avise, J., Chen, J., Lamb, B., Wiedinmyer, C., Guenther, A., Salathé, E., and Mass, C.: Attribution of projected changes in summertime US ozone and PM2. 5 concentrations to global changes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 1111–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-1111-2009, 2009.
Barnes, E. A. and Fiore, A. M.: Surface ozone variability and the jet position: Implications for projecting future air quality, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2839–2844, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50411, 2013.
Brook, R. D., Rajagopalan, S., Pope III, C. A., Brook, J. R., Bhatnagar, A., Diez-Roux, A. V., Holguin., F., Hong, Y., Luepker., R. V., Mittleman, M. A., Peters, A., Siscovick, D., Smith Jr., S. C., Whitsel, L., and Kaufman, J. D.: Particulate matter air pollution and cardiovascular disease – An update to the scientific statement from the American Heart Association, J. Am. Heart Assoc., 121, 2331–2378, 2010.
Burkholder, J. B., Sander, S. P., Abbatt, J. P. D., Barker, J. R., Huie, R. E., Kolb, C. E., Kurylo, M. J., Orkin, V. L., Wilmouth, D. M., and Wine, P. H.: Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Atmospheric Studies: Evaluation Number 18. Pasadena, CA: Jet Propulsion Laboratory, 2015.
Canagaratna, M. R., Jimenez, J. L., Kroll, J. H., Chen, Q., Kessler, S. H., Massoli, P., Hildebrandt Ruiz, L., Fortner, E., Williams, L. R., Wilson, K. R., Surratt, J. D., Donahue, N. M., Jayne, J. T., and Worsnop, D. R.: Elemental ratio measurements of organic compounds using aerosol mass spectrometry: characterization, improved calibration, and implications, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 253–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-253-2015, 2015.
Chen, M., Shi, W., Xie, P., Silva, V., Kousky, V. E., Wayne Higgins, R., and Janowiak, J. E.: Assessing objective techniques for gauge-based analyses of global daily precipitation. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D04110, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009132, 2008.
Dawson, J. P., Adams, P. J., and Pandis, S. N.: Sensitivity of PM2. 5 to climate in the Eastern US: a modeling case study, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 4295–4309, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-4295-2007, 2007.
Dawson, J. P., Racherla, P. N., Lynn, B. H., Adams, P. J., and Pandis, S. N.: Impacts of climate change on regional and urban air quality in the eastern United States: Role of meteorology, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D05308, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009849, 2009.
Day, M. C. and Pandis, S. N.: Effects of a changing climate on summertime fine particulate matter levels in the eastern U.S., J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 5706–5720, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022889, 2015.
Deser, C., Phillips, A. S., Alexander, M. A., and Smoliak, B. V.: Projecting North American climate over the next 50 years: Uncertainty due to internal variability, J. Climate, 27, 2271–2296, 2014.
EPA: National Air Quality – Status and Trends through 2010. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Plan- ning and Standards, Air Quality Assessment Division, RTP, NC 27711, 2011.
Fiore, A. M., Naik, V., and Leibensperger, E. M.: Air quality and climate connections, J. Air Waste Manage., 65, 645–685, https://doi.org/10.1080/10962247.2015.1040526, 2015.
Fisher, J. A., Jacob, D. J., Wang, Q., Bahreini, R., Carouge, C. C., Cubison, M. J., Dibb, J. E., Diehl, T., Jimenez, J. L., Leibensperger, E. M., Meinders, M. B. J., Pye, H. O. T., Quinn, P. K., Sharma, S., van Donkelaar, A., and Yantosca, R. M.: Sources, distribution, and acidity of sulfate-ammonium aerosol in the arctic in winter-spring, Atmos. Environ., 45, 7301–7318, 2011.
Fountoukis, C. and Nenes, A.: ISORROPIA II: a computationally efficient thermodynamic equilibrium model for K+-Ca2+-Mg2+-NH4+-Na+-SO42−-NO3−-Cl−-H2O aerosols, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 4639–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-4639-2007, 2007.
Gonzalez-Abraham, R., Chung, S. H., Avise, J., Lamb, B., Salathé Jr., E. P., Nolte, C. G., Loughlin, D., Guenther, A., Wiedinmyer, C., Duhl, T., Zhang, Y., and Streets, D. G.: The effects of global change upon United States air quality, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12645–12665, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12645-2015, 2015.
Groisman, P. Y., Bradley, R. S., and Sun, B.: The relationship of cloud cover to near-surface temperature and humidity: Comparison of GCM simulations with empirical data, J. Climate, 13, 1858–1878, 2000.
Guenther, A. B., Jiang, X., Heald, C. L., Sakulyanontvittaya, T., Duhl, T., Emmons, L. K., and Wang, X.: The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature version 2.1 (MEGAN2.1): an extended and updated framework for modeling biogenic emissions, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 1471–1492, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1471-2012, 2012.
Heald, C. L., Henze, D. K., Horowitz, L. W., Feddema, J., Lamarque, J. F., Guenther, A., Hess, P. G., Vitt, F., Seinfeld, J. H., Goldstein, A. H., and Fung, I.: Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land use change, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D05211, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007jd009092, 2008.
Hu, X., Waller, L. A., Lyapustin, A., Wang, Y., and Liu, Y.: 10-year spatial and temporal trends of PM2. 5 concentrations in the southeastern US estimated using high-resolution satellite data, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6301–6314, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6301-2014, 2014.
Hudman, R. C., Moore, N. E., Mebust, A. K., Martin, R. V., Russell, A. R., Valin, L. C., and Cohen, R. C.: Steps towards a mechanistic model of global soil nitric oxide emissions: implementation and space based-constraints, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 7779–7795, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-7779-2012, 2012.
Jacob, D. J. and Winner, D. A.: Effect of climate change on air quality, Atmos. Environ., 43, 51–63, 2009.
Jacob, D.: Introduction to atmospheric chemistry, Princeton University Press, 1999.
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., and Zhu, Y.: The NMC/NCAR CDAS/Reanalysis Project, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437–471, 1996.
Kelly, J., Makar, P. A., and Plummer, D. A.: Projections of mid-century summer air-quality for North America: effects of changes in climate and precursor emissions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 5367–5390, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-5367-2012, 2012.
Koch, D., Park, J., and del Genio, A.: Clouds and sulfate are anticorrelated: A new diagnostic for global sulphur models, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4781, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003621, 2003.
Kutner, M. H., Nachtsheim, C. J., Neter, J., and Li, W.: Applied Linear Statistical Models. McGraw-Hill/Irwin, New York, NY, USA, 2004.
Laden, F., Schwarz, J., Speizer, F. E., and Dockery, D. W.: Reduction in fine particulate air pollution and mortality, Am. J. Resp. Crit. Care. Med., 173, 667–672, 2006.
Lamarque, J.-F., Bond, T. C., Eyring, V., Granier, C., Heil, A., Klimont, Z., Lee, D., Liousse, C., Mieville, A., Owen, B., Schultz, M. G., Shindell, D., Smith, S. J., Stehfest, E., Van Aardenne, J., Cooper, O. R., Kainuma, M., Mahowald, N., McConnell, J. R., Naik, V., Riahi, K., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 7017–7039, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-7017-2010, 2010.
Lamarque, J.-F., Dentener, F., McConnell, J., Ro, C.-U., Shaw, M., Vet, R., Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P., Dalsoren, S., Doherty, R., Faluvegi, G., Ghan, S. J., Josse, B., Lee, Y. H., MacKenzie, I. A., Plummer, D., Shindell, D. T., Skeie, R. B., Stevenson, D. S., Strode, S., Zeng, G., Curran, M., Dahl-Jensen, D., Das, S., Fritzsche, D., and Nolan, M.: Multi-model mean nitrogen and sulfur deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): evaluation of historical and projected future changes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7997–8018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7997-2013, 2013.
Lecœur, È., Seigneur, C., Pagé, C., and Terray, L.: A statistical method to estimate PM2.5 concentrations from meteorology and its application to the effect of climate change, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 3537–3585, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021172, 2014.
Leibensperger, E. M., Mickley, L. J., and Jacob, D. J.: Sensitivity of US air quality to mid-latitude cyclone frequency and implications of 1980–2006 climate change, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 7075–7086, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-7075-2008, 2008.
Li, W., Li, L., Fu, R., Deng, Y., and Wang, H.: Changes to the North Atlan- tic subtropical high and its role in the intensification of summer rainfall variability in the Southeastern United States, J. Climate, 24, 1499–1506, 2011.
Liao, H., Chen, W. T., and Seinfeld, J. H.: Role of climate change in global predictions of future tropospheric ozone and aerosols, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D12304, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005jd006852, 2006.
Mickley, L. J., Jacob, D. J., Field, B. D., and Rind, D.: Effects of future climate change on regional air pollution episodes in the United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L24103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021216, 2004.
Minnis, P., Smith Jr., W. L., Garber, D. P., Ayers, J. K., and Doelling, D. R.: Cloud properties derived from GOES-7 for Spring 1994 ARM intensive observing period using Version 1.0.0 of ARM Satellite Data Analysis Program, NASA Ref. Pub. NASA-RP- 1366, 62 pp., 1995.
Minnis, P., Sun-Mack, S., Young, D. F., Heck, P. W., Garber, D. P., Chen, Y., Spangenberg, D. A., Arduini, R. F., Trepte, Q. Z., Smith, W. L., and Ayers, J. K.: CERES Edition-2 cloud property retrievals using TRMM VIRS and Terra and Aqua MODIS data, Part I: Algorithms, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote Sens., 49, https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2011.2144601, 2011.
Moorthi, S. and Suarez, M. J.: Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert, A parameterization of moist convection for general circulation models, Mon. Weather Rev., 120, 978–1002, 1992.
Murray, L. T., Jacob, D. J., Logan, J. A., Hudman, R. C., and Koshak, W. J.: Optimized regional and interannual variability of lightning in a global chemical transport model constrained by LIS/OTD satellite data, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D20307, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017934, 2012.
Paulot, F., Crounse, J. D., Kjaergaard, H. G., Kroll, J. H., Seinfeld, J. H., and Wennberg, P. O.: Isoprene photooxidation: new insights into the production of acids and organic nitrates, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 1479–1501, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-1479-2009, 2009a.
Paulot, F., Crounse, J. D., Kjaergaard, H. G., Kürten, A., St. Clair, J. M., Seinfeld, J. H., and Wennberg, P. O.: Unexpected epoxide formation in the gas-phase photooxidation of isoprene, Science, 325, 730–733, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1172910, 2009b.
Pelucchi, C., Negri, E., Gallus, S., Boffetta, P., Tramacere, I., and La Vecchia, C.: Long-term particulate matter exposure and mortality: a review of European epidemiological studies, BMC Public Health, 9, 453, https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-9-453, 2009.
Pye, H. O. T., Liao, H., Wu, S., Mickley, L. J., Jacob, D. J., Henze, D. K., and Seinfeld, J. H.: Effect of changes in climate and emissions on future sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosol levels in the United States, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D01205, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jd010701, 2009.
Pye, H. O. T., Chan, A. W. H., Barkley, M. P., and Seinfeld, J. H.: Global modeling of organic aerosol: the importance of reactive nitrogen (NOx and NO3), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 11261–11276, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-11261-2010, 2010.
Racherla, P. N. and Adams, P. J.: Sensitivity of global tropospheric ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations to climate change, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D24103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006939, 2006.
Reinecker, M. M., Suarez, M. J., Todling, R., Bacmeister, J., Takacs, L., Liu, H. C., Gu, W., Sienkiewicz, M., Koster, R. D., Gelaro, R., Stajner, I., and Nielsen, J. E.: The GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System-Documentation of Versions 5.0. 1, 5.1. 0, and 5.2. 0, Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, 27, edited by: Suarez, M. J., NASA/TM–2008–104606, NASA, Greenbelt, MD, 2008.
Rienecker, M. M., Suarez, M. J., Gelaro, R., Todling, R., Bacmeister, J., Liu, R., Bosilovich, M. G., Schubert, S. D., Takacs, L., Kim, G.-K., Bloom, S., Chen, J., Collins, D., Conaty, A., da Silva, A., Gu, W., Joiner, J., Koster, R. D., Lucchesi, R., Molod, A., Owens, T., Pawson, S., Pegion, P., Redder, C. R., Reichle, R., Robertson, F. R., Ruddick, A. G., Sienkiewicz, M., and Woollen, J.: MERRA: NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, J. Climate, 24, 3624–3648, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00015.1, 2011.
Reynolds, R. W., Smith, T. M., Liu, C., Chelton, D. B., Casey, K. S., and Schlax, M. G.: Daily high-resolution-blended analyses for sea surface temperature, J. Climate, 20, 5473–5496, 2007.
Rollins, A. W., Kiendler-Scharr, A., Fry, J. L., Brauers, T., Brown, S. S., Dorn, H.-P., Dubé, W. P., Fuchs, H., Mensah, A., Mentel, T. F., Rohrer, F., Tillmann, R., Wegener, R., Wooldridge, P. J., and Cohen, R. C.: Isoprene oxidation by nitrate radical: alkyl nitrate and secondary organic aerosol yields, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 6685-6703, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-6685-2009, 2009.
Rotstayn, L. D.: A physically based scheme for the treatment of stratiform clouds and precipitation in large-scale models. 1. Description and evaluation of the microphysical processes, Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. Part A, 123, 1227–1282, 1997.
Sheffield, J., Barrett, A. P., Colle, B., Nelun Fernando, D., Fu, R., Geil, K. L., Hu, Q., Kinter, J., Kumar, S., Langenbrunner, B., and Lombardo, K.: North American climate in CMIP5 experiments. Part I: Evaluation of historical simulations of continental and regional climatology, J. Climate, 26, 9209–9245, 2013.
Shen, L., Mickley, L. J., and Tai, A. P. K.: Influence of synoptic patterns on surface ozone variability over the eastern United States from 1980 to 2012, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10925–10938, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10925-2015, 2015.
Shen, L., Mickley, L., and Murray, L.: Replication Data for: Influence of 2000–2050 climate change on particulate matter in the United States: results from a new statistical model, available at: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/MHN3NY, Harvard Dataverse, V1, 2017.
Smith, R. N. B.: A scheme for predicting layer clouds and their water content in a general circulation model, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. Part B, 116, 435–460, 1990.
Stephens, G. L., Wood, N. B., and Gabriel, P. M.: An assessment of the parameterization of subgrid-scale cloud effects on radiative transfer. Part I: Vertical overlap, J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 715–732, 2004.
Sun, B., Groisman, P. Y., Bradley, R. S., and Keimig, F. T.: Temporal changes in the observed relationship between cloud cover and surface air temperature, J. Climate, 13, 4341–4357, 2000.
Tagaris, E., Manomaiphiboon, K., Liao, K. J., Leung, L. R., Woo, J. H., He, S., Amar, P., and Russell, A. G.: Impacts of global climate change and emissions on regional ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations over the United States, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 112, D14312, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006jd008262, 2007.
Tai, A. P. K., Mickley, L. J., and Jacob, D. J.: Correlations between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and meteorological variables in the United States: Implications for the sensitivity of PM2.5 to climate change, Atmos. Environ., 44, 3976–3984, 2010.
Tai, A. P. K., Mickley, L. J., Jacob, D. J., Leibensperger, E. M., Zhang, L., Fisher, J. A., and Pye, H. O. T.: Meteorological modes of variability for fine particulate matter (PM2. 5) air quality in the United States: implications for PM2. 5 sensitivity to climate change, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 3131–3145, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-3131-2012, 2012a.
Tai, A. P. K., Mickley, L. J., and Jacob, D. J.: Impact of 2000–2050 climate change on fine particulate matter (PM2. 5) air quality inferred from a multi-model analysis of meteorological modes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 11329–11337, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-11329-2012, 2012b.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.
Thishan Dharshana, K. G., Kravtsov, S., and Kahl, J. D. W.: Relationship between synoptic weather disturbances and particulate matter air pollution over the United States, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, D24219, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010jd014852, 2010.
Val Martin, M., Heald, C. L., Lamarque, J.-F., Tilmes, S., Emmons, L. K., and Schichtel, B. A.: How emissions, climate, and land use change will impact mid-century air quality over the United States: a focus on effects at national parks, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2805–2823, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2805-2015, 2015.
van der Werf, G. R., Randerson, J. T., Giglio, L., Collatz, G. J., Mu, M., Kasibhatla, P. S., Morton, D. C., DeFries, R. S., Jin, Y., and van Leeuwen, T. T.: Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997–2009), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 11707–11735, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-11707-2010, 2010.
Westervelt, D. M., Horowitz, L. W., Naik, V., Tai, A. P. K., Fiore, A. M., and Mauzerall, D. L.: Quantifying PM 2.5-meteorology sensitivities in a global climate model, Atmos. Environ., 142, 43–56, 2016.
Xie, P., Chen, M., Yang, S., Yatagai, A., Hayasaka, T., Fukushima, Y., and Liu, C.: A gauge-based analysis of daily precipitation over East Asia, J. Hydrometeorol., 8, 607–626, 2007.
Yue, X., Mickley, L. J., Logan, J. A., and Kaplan, J. O.: Ensemble projections of wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations over the western United States in the mid-21st century, Atmos. Environ., 77, 767–780, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2013.06.003, 2013.
Yue, X., Mickley, L. J., Logan, J. A., Hudman, R. C., Martin, M. V., and Yantosca, R. M.: Impact of 2050 climate change on North American wildfire: consequences for ozone air quality, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10033–10055, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10033-2015, 2015.
Download
The requested paper has a corresponding corrigendum published. Please read the corrigendum first before downloading the article.
- Article
(6243 KB) - Full-text XML
- Corrigendum
-
Supplement
(5461 KB) - BibTeX
- EndNote
Short summary
We introduce a new method to characterize the influence of atmospheric circulation on surface PM2.5 concentrations. Applying our statistical model to climate projections, we find a strong influence of 2000–2050 climate change on PM2.5 air quality in the United States. We find that current atmospheric chemistry models may underestimate the strong positive sensitivity of PM2.5 to temperature in the eastern United States in summer, and so may underestimate PM2.5 changes in a warmer climate.
We introduce a new method to characterize the influence of atmospheric circulation on surface...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint