Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
Research article
23 Feb 2016
Research article |  | 23 Feb 2016

On the progress of the 2015–2016 El Niño event

Costas A. Varotsos, Chris G. Tzanis, and Nicholas V. Sarlis

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Cited articles

Barnston, A. G., Tippett, M. K., L'Heureux, M. L., Li, S. H., and DeWitt, D. G.: Skill of real-time seasonal ENSO model predictions during 2002–11: is our capability increasing?, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 631–651, 2012.
Chattopadhyay, S. and Chattopadhyay, G.: The possible association between summer monsoon rainfall in India and sunspot numbers, Int. J. Remote Sens., 32, 891–907, 2011.
Cheng, Y. J., Tang, Y. M., and Chen, D. K.: Relationship between predictability and forecast skill of ENSO on various time scales, J. Geophys. Res., 116, C12006,, 2011.
Cracknell, A. P. and Varotsos, C. A.: The Antarctic 2006 ozone hole, Int. J. Remote Sens., 28, 1–2, 2007.
Cracknell, A. P. and Varotsos, C. A.: New aspects of global climate-dynamics research and remote sensing, Int. J. Remote Sens., 32, 579–600, 2011.
Short summary
It has been recently reported that the current 2015–2016 El Niño could become "one of the strongest on record". To further explore this claim, we performed a new analysis that allows the detection of precursory signals of the strong El Niño events by using a recently developed non-linear dynamics tool. The analysis of the SOI time series shows that the 2015–2016 El Niño would be rather a "moderate to strong" or even a "strong” event and not "one of the strongest on record", as that of 1997–1998.
Final-revised paper