On the progress of the 2015–2016 El Niño event

Varotsos, Costas A.; Tzanis, Chris G.; Sarlis, Nicholas V.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2007-2016

Articles | Volume 16, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2007-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2007-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 16, issue 4

Research article

|

23 Feb 2016

Research article |

| 23 Feb 2016

On the progress of the 2015–2016 El Niño event

Costas A. Varotsos, Chris G. Tzanis, and Nicholas V. Sarlis

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Final revised paper (published on 23 Feb 2016)
Preprint (discussion started on 18 Dec 2015)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC C11260: 'Comments', Anonymous Referee #1, 08 Jan 2016
RC C11583: 'Report on ``Technical note: On the progress of the 2015–2016 El Niño event"', Surajit Chattopadhyay, 15 Jan 2016
RC C11681: 'Review for acp-2015-925', Anonymous Referee #3, 18 Jan 2016
AC C12117: 'Authors' responses to referees' comments', Costas Varotsos, 30 Jan 2016

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

AR by Costas Varotsos on behalf of the Authors (13 Feb 2016) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (15 Feb 2016) by Andreas Hofzumahaus

AR by Costas Varotsos on behalf of the Authors (17 Feb 2016) Manuscript

Short summary

It has been recently reported that the current 2015–2016 El Niño could become "one of the strongest on record". To further explore this claim, we performed a new analysis that allows the detection of precursory signals of the strong El Niño events by using a recently developed non-linear dynamics tool. The analysis of the SOI time series shows that the 2015–2016 El Niño would be rather a "moderate to strong" or even a "strong” event and not "one of the strongest on record", as that of 1997–1998.