Articles | Volume 25, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2515-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2515-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
27 Feb 2025
Research article |
| 27 Feb 2025
| 27 Feb 2025
Multi-model assessment of the atmospheric and radiative effects of supersonic transport aircraft
Jurriaan A. van 't Hoff
Operations & Environment, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2629 HS, the Netherlands
Didier Hauglustaine
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91190 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Johannes Pletzer
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, 82234 Weßling, Germany
Agnieszka Skowron
Faculty of Science and Engineering, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, M1 5GD, United Kingdom
Volker Grewe
Operations & Environment, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2629 HS, the Netherlands
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, 82234 Weßling, Germany
Sigrun Matthes
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, 82234 Weßling, Germany
Maximilian M. Meuser
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institute of Air Transport, 21079 Hamburg, Germany
Robin N. Thor
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, 82234 Weßling, Germany
Operations & Environment, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2629 HS, the Netherlands
Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB3 0DY, United Kingdom
Related authors
No articles found.
Pramod Kumar, Grégoire Broquet, Didier Hauglustaine, Maureen Beaudor, Lieven Clarisse, Martin Van Damme, Pierre Coheur, Anne Cozic, Bo Zheng, Beatriz Revilla Romero, Antony Delavois, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 12379–12407, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-12379-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-12379-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Global maps of the NH3 emissions over 2019–2022 are derived using IASI NH3 spaceborne observations, the LMDZ-INCA chemistry transport model at 1.27°×2.5° resolution, and the mass-balance approach. The average global NH3 emissions over the period are ~97 Tg NH3 yr-1, which is significantly higher than three reference inventories. The analysis provides confidence in the seasonal variability and regional budgets and provides new insights into NH3 emissions at global and regional scales.
Jin Maruhashi, Mattia Righi, Monica Sharma, Johannes Hendricks, Patrick Jöckel, Volker Grewe, and Irene C. Dedoussi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4204, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol-cloud interactions remain a large source of uncertainty in assessing aviation’s climate impact. We develop, evaluate and present AIRTRAC v2.0 within the EMAC modeling framework, which enables tracking of aviation-emitted SO2 and H2SO4 as they are chemically transformed into sulfate aerosols and transported in the atmosphere. The development allows the identification of atmospheric regions with elevated potential for aerosol–cloud interactions due to sulfur emissions from aircraft.
Hanrui Lang, Yunjiang Zhang, Sheng Zhong, Yongcai Rao, Minfeng Zhou, Jian Qiu, Jingyi Li, Diwen Liu, Florian Couvidat, Olivier Favez, Didier Hauglustaine, and Xinlei Ge
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 10587–10601, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10587-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10587-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how dust pollution influences particulate nitrate formation. We found that dust pollution could reduce the effectiveness of ammonia emission controls by altering aerosol chemistry. Using field observations and modeling, we showed that dust particles affect nitrate distribution between gas and particle phases. Our findings highlight the need for pollution control strategies that consider both human emissions and dust sources for better urban air quality management.
Yann Cohen, Didier Hauglustaine, Zosia Staniaszek, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Irene Dedoussi, Sigrun Matthes, Flávio Quadros, Mattia Righi, Agnieszka Skowron, and Robin Thor
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4273, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4273, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
Non-CO2 effects from aviation on climate show large uncertainties. Among them, this study investigates the present-day impact of nitrogen oxides (through ozone and methane) and aerosols produced by aviation on atmospheric composition and therefore on climate, using a global-model intercomparison. Our results show a good consistency between the models for gaseous chemistry, but they also highlight the need for more accurate comparisons and further model development for aerosol parameterization.
Jie Fang, Yunjiang Zhang, Didier Hauglustaine, Bo Zheng, Ming Wang, Jingyi Li, Yong Sun, Haiwei Li, Junfeng Wang, Yun Wu, Mindong Chen, and Xinlei Ge
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4014, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4014, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
Surface ozone pollution is a pressing global challenge driven by human activities and a warming climate. Using nationwide observations (2013–2023) across China together with satellite data, we developed a new machine learning approach to separate the impacts of emission controls and weather changes. Our results show that while emission reductions improved ozone in some regions, climate change is increasingly offsetting these gains, underscoring the need for joint air quality and climate actions.
Gunnar Myhre, Øivind Hodnebrog, Srinath Krishnan, Maria Sand, Marit Sandstad, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Lieven Clarisse, Bruno Franco, Dylan B. Millet, Kelley C. Wells, Alexander Archibald, Hannah N. Bryant, Alex T. Chaudhri, David S. Stevenson, Didier Hauglustaine, Michael Prather, J. Christopher Kaiser, Dirk J. L. Olivie, Michael Schulz, Oliver Wild, Ye Wang, Thérèse Salameh, Jason E. Williams, Philippe Le Sager, Fabien Paulot, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Haley E. Plaas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3057, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) affect air quality and climate, but their behavior in the atmosphere is still uncertain. We launched a global research effort to compare how different models represent these compounds and to improve their accuracy. By analyzing model results alongside observations and satellite data, we aim to better understand the atmospheric composition of these compounds.
Mingxuan Wu, Hailong Wang, Zheng Lu, Xiaohong Liu, Huisheng Bian, David D. Cohen, Yan Feng, Mian Chin, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Vlassis A. Karydis, Marianne T. Lund, Gunnar Myhre, Andrea Pozzer, Michael Schulz, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, Svetlana G. Tsyro, and Shaocheng Xie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 10049–10074, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10049-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10049-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A key challenge in simulating the life cycle of nitrate aerosol in global models is accurately representing the mass size distribution of nitrate aerosol, which lacks sufficient observational constraints. We found that most global models underestimate the mass fraction of fine-mode nitrate at the surface in all regions. Our study highlights the importance of gas–aerosol partitioning parameterization and the simulation of dust and sea salt in correctly simulating the mass size distribution of nitrate.
Hui Li, Philippe Ciais, Pramod Kumar, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Frédéric Chevallier, Grégoire Broquet, Dylan B. Millet, Kelley C. Wells, Jinghui Lian, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-424, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-424, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first global, multi-year maps of monthly isoprene emissions (2013–2020) derived from satellite isoprene observations, averaging 456 TgC yr-1. The dataset reveals two emission peaks linked to 2015–2016 El Niño and 2019–2020 extreme heat events, driven mainly by tropical regions such as the Amazon. It highlights the region-specific sensitivity of biogenic isoprene emissions to temperature anomalies, providing new insights into their roles in air quality and climate feedbacks.
Mattia Righi, Simone Ehrenberger, Sabine Brinkop, Johannes Hendricks, Jens Hellekes, Paweł Banyś, Isheeka Dasgupta, Patrick Draheim, Annika Fitz, Manuel Löber, Thomas Pregger, Yvonne Scholz, Angelika Schulz, Birgit Suhr, Nina Thomsen, Christian Martin Weder, Peter Berster, Maximilian Clococeanu, Marc Gelhausen, Alexander Lau, Florian Linke, Sigrun Matthes, and Zarah Lea Zengerling
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-454, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-454, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
The ELK emission inventory provides global emission data for the three transport sectors (land transport, shipping and aviation) and transport-related emissions for the energy sector (oil refineries). It features a detailed resolution of the emissions in different subsectors, transport-specific quantities like non-exhaust emissions, and aviation-specific parameters. The ELK dataset is complemented with uncertainty scores and is validated against other well-established global inventories.
Patrick Peter, Sigrun Matthes, Christine Frömming, Patrick Jöckel, Luca Bugliaro, Andreas Giez, Martina Krämer, and Volker Grewe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5911–5934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5911-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5911-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study examines how well the global climate model EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) predicts contrail formation by analysing temperature and humidity – two key factors for contrail development and persistence. The model underestimates temperature, leading to an overprediction of contrail formation and larger ice-supersaturated regions. Adjusting the model improves temperature accuracy but adds uncertainties. Better predictions of contrail formation areas can help optimise flight tracks to reduce aviation's climate effect.
Yann Cohen, Didier Hauglustaine, Nicolas Bellouin, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Sigrun Matthes, Agnieszka Skowron, Robin Thor, Ulrich Bundke, Andreas Petzold, Susanne Rohs, Valérie Thouret, Andreas Zahn, and Helmut Ziereis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5793–5836, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5793-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5793-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The chemical composition of the atmosphere near the tropopause is a key parameter for evaluating the climate impact of subsonic aviation pollutants. This study uses in situ data collected aboard passenger aircraft to assess the ability of four chemistry–climate models to reproduce (bi-)decadal climatologies of ozone, carbon monoxide, water vapour, and reactive nitrogen in this region. The models reproduce the very distinct ozone seasonality in the upper troposphere and in the lower stratosphere well.
Monica Sharma, Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, Anja Schmidt, Daniel Sauer, and Volker Grewe
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1137, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1137, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A plume model is developed to simulate aerosol microphysics in a dispersing aircraft plume, including interactions between ice crystals and aerosols in vortex regime. Compared to an instantaneous dispersion approach, the plume approach estimates 15 % lower aviation aerosol number concentrations, due to more efficient coagulation at plume scale. The model is sensitive to background conditions and initialization parameters, such as ice crystal number concentration and fuel sulfur content.
Liam Megill and Volker Grewe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4131–4149, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4131-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4131-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses ERA5 data to better understand the relative importance of the factors limiting persistent contrail formation. We develop climatological relationships to estimate potential persistent contrail formation for existing as well as future aircraft and propulsion system designs. We identify latitudes and pressure levels where the introduction of novel aircraft designs would result in significant changes in potential persistent contrail formation compared to existing conventional aircraft.
Nikolaos Evangeliou, Ondřej Tichý, Marit Svendby Otervik, Sabine Eckhardt, Yves Balkanski, and Didier A. Hauglustaine
Aerosol Research, 3, 155–174, https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-3-155-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-3-155-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The COVID-19 lockdown measures in 2020 reduced emissions of various substances, improving air quality. However, PM2.5 stayed unchanged due to NH3 and related chemical transformations. Higher humidity favoured more SO42- production, as did the accumulated NH3. Excess NH3 reacted with HNO3 to make NO3-. In high-NH3 conditions such as those in 2020, a small reduction in NOx levels drove faster oxidation of NO3- and slower deposition of total inorganic NO3-, causing high secondary PM2.5.
Maureen Beaudor, Didier Hauglustaine, Juliette Lathière, Martin Van Damme, Lieven Clarisse, and Nicolas Vuichard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2017–2046, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2017-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2017-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Agriculture is the biggest ammonia (NH3) source, impacting air quality, climate, and ecosystems. Because of food demand, NH3 emissions are projected to rise by 2100. Using a global model, we analyzed the impact of present and future NH3 emissions generated from a land model. Our results show improved ammonia patterns compared to a reference inventory. Future scenarios predict up to 70 % increase in global NH3 burden, with significant changes in radiative forcing that can greatly elevate N2O.
Markus Kilian, Volker Grewe, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, Mariano Mertens, Andreas Zahn, and Helmut Ziereis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13503–13523, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13503-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13503-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic emissions are a major source of precursors of tropospheric ozone. As ozone formation is highly non-linear, we apply a global–regional chemistry–climate model with a source attribution method (tagging) to quantify the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to ozone. Our analysis shows that the contribution of European anthropogenic emissions largely increases during large ozone periods, indicating that emissions from these sectors drive ozone values.
Mariano Mertens, Sabine Brinkop, Phoebe Graf, Volker Grewe, Johannes Hendricks, Patrick Jöckel, Anna Lanteri, Sigrun Matthes, Vanessa S. Rieger, Mattia Righi, and Robin N. Thor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12079–12106, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We quantified the contributions of land transport, shipping, and aviation emissions to tropospheric ozone; its radiative forcing; and the reductions of the methane lifetime using chemistry-climate model simulations. The contributions were analysed for the conditions of 2015 and for three projections for the year 2050. The results highlight the challenges of mitigating ozone formed by emissions of the transport sector, caused by the non-linearitiy of the ozone chemistry and the long lifetime.
Irene C. Dedoussi, Daven K. Henze, Sebastian D. Eastham, Raymond L. Speth, and Steven R. H. Barrett
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5689–5703, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric model gradients provide a meaningful tool for better understanding the underlying atmospheric processes. Adjoint modeling enables computationally efficient gradient calculations. We present the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem unified chemistry extension (UCX). With this development, the GEOS-Chem adjoint model can capture stratospheric ozone and other processes jointly with tropospheric processes. We apply it to characterize the Antarctic ozone depletion potential of active halogen species.
Federica Castino, Feijia Yin, Volker Grewe, Hiroshi Yamashita, Sigrun Matthes, Simone Dietmüller, Sabine Baumann, Manuel Soler, Abolfazl Simorgh, Maximilian Mendiguchia Meuser, Florian Linke, and Benjamin Lührs
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4031–4052, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4031-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4031-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce SolFinder 1.0, a decision-making tool to select trade-offs between different objective functions for optimal aircraft trajectories, including fuel use, flight time, NOx emissions, contrail distance, and climate impact. The module is included in the AirTraf 3.0 submodel and uses weather conditions simulated by the EMAC atmospheric model. This paper focuses on the ability of SolFinder to identify eco-efficient trajectories, reducing a flight's climate impact at limited cost penalties.
Johannes Pletzer and Volker Grewe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1743–1775, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1743-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1743-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Very fast aircraft can travel at 30–40 km altitude and are designed to use liquid hydrogen as fuel instead of kerosene. Depending on their flight altitude, the impact of these aircraft on the atmosphere and climate can change very much. Our results show that a variation inflight latitude can have a considerably higher change in impact compared to a variation in flight altitude. Atmospheric air transport and polar stratospheric clouds play an important role in hypersonic aircraft emissions.
Ondřej Tichý, Sabine Eckhardt, Yves Balkanski, Didier Hauglustaine, and Nikolaos Evangeliou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15235–15252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15235-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We show declining trends in NH3 emissions over Europe for 2013–2020 using advanced dispersion and inverse modelling and satellite measurements from CrIS. Emissions decreased by −26% since 2013, showing that the abatement strategies adopted by the European Union have been very efficient. Ammonia emissions are low in winter and peak in summer due to temperature-dependent soil volatilization. The largest decreases were observed in central and western Europe in countries with high emissions.
Yann Cohen, Didier Hauglustaine, Bastien Sauvage, Susanne Rohs, Patrick Konjari, Ulrich Bundke, Andreas Petzold, Valérie Thouret, Andreas Zahn, and Helmut Ziereis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14973–15009, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14973-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS) is a key region regarding the lower atmospheric composition. This study consists of a comprehensive evaluation of an up-to-date chemistry–climate model in this layer, using regular in situ measurements based on passenger aircraft. For this purpose, a specific software (Interpol-IAGOS) has been updated and made publicly available. The model reproduces the carbon monoxide peaks due to biomass burning over the continental tropics particularly well.
Sigrun Matthes, Simone Dietmüller, Katrin Dahlmann, Christine Frömming, Patrick Peter, Hiroshi Yamashita, Volker Grewe, Feijia Yin, and Federica Castino
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-92, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Aviation aims to reduce its climate effect by identifying alternative climate-optimized aircraft trajectories. Such routing strategies requires a dedicated meteorological service in order to inform on regions of the atmosphere where aviation non-CO2 emissions have a large climate effect, e.g. by contrail formation or nitrogen-oxide (NOx)-induced ozone formation. This study presents calibration factors for individual non-CO2 effects by comparing with the climate response model AirClim.
Elena De La Torre Castro, Tina Jurkat-Witschas, Armin Afchine, Volker Grewe, Valerian Hahn, Simon Kirschler, Martina Krämer, Johannes Lucke, Nicole Spelten, Heini Wernli, Martin Zöger, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13167–13189, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13167-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13167-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we show the differences in the microphysical properties between high-latitude (HL) cirrus and mid-latitude (ML) cirrus over the Arctic, North Atlantic, and central Europe during summer. The in situ measurements are combined with backward trajectories to investigate the influence of the region on cloud formation. We show that HL cirrus are characterized by a lower concentration of larger ice crystals when compared to ML cirrus.
Simone Dietmüller, Sigrun Matthes, Katrin Dahlmann, Hiroshi Yamashita, Abolfazl Simorgh, Manuel Soler, Florian Linke, Benjamin Lührs, Maximilian M. Meuser, Christian Weder, Volker Grewe, Feijia Yin, and Federica Castino
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4405–4425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4405-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4405-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate-optimized aircraft trajectories avoid atmospheric regions with a large climate impact due to aviation emissions. This requires spatially and temporally resolved information on aviation's climate impact. We propose using algorithmic climate change functions (aCCFs) for CO2 and non-CO2 effects (ozone, methane, water vapor, contrail cirrus). Merged aCCFs combine individual aCCFs by assuming aircraft-specific parameters and climate metrics. Technically this is done with a Python library.
Abolfazl Simorgh, Manuel Soler, Daniel González-Arribas, Florian Linke, Benjamin Lührs, Maximilian M. Meuser, Simone Dietmüller, Sigrun Matthes, Hiroshi Yamashita, Feijia Yin, Federica Castino, Volker Grewe, and Sabine Baumann
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3723–3748, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3723-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3723-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper addresses the robust climate optimal trajectory planning problem under uncertain meteorological conditions within the structured airspace. Based on the optimization methodology, a Python library has been developed, which can be accessed using the following DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7121862. The developed tool is capable of providing robust trajectories taking into account all probable realizations of meteorological conditions provided by an EPS computationally very fast.
Robin N. Thor, Malte Niklaß, Katrin Dahlmann, Florian Linke, Volker Grewe, and Sigrun Matthes
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-126, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-126, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a simplied method to estimate the climate effects of single flights through CO2 and non-CO2 effects, exclusively based on the aircraft seat category as well as the origin and destination airports. The derived climate effect functions exhibit a mean relative error of only 15 % with respect to results from a climate response model. The method is designed for climate footprint assessments and covers most commerical airlines with seat capacities starting from 101 passengers.
Feijia Yin, Volker Grewe, Federica Castino, Pratik Rao, Sigrun Matthes, Katrin Dahlmann, Simone Dietmüller, Christine Frömming, Hiroshi Yamashita, Patrick Peter, Emma Klingaman, Keith P. Shine, Benjamin Lührs, and Florian Linke
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3313–3334, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a newly developed submodel ACCF V1.0 based on the MESSy 2.53.0 infrastructure. The ACCF V1.0 is based on the prototype algorithmic climate change functions (aCCFs) v1.0 to enable climate-optimized flight trajectories. One highlight of this paper is that we describe a consistent full set of aCCFs formulas with respect to fuel scenario and metrics. We demonstrate the usage of the ACCF submodel using AirTraf V2.0 to optimize trajectories for cost and climate impact.
Robin N. Thor, Mariano Mertens, Sigrun Matthes, Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, Sabine Brinkop, Phoebe Graf, Volker Grewe, Patrick Jöckel, and Steven Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1459–1466, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1459-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1459-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We report on an inconsistency in the latitudinal distribution of aviation emissions between two versions of a data product which is widely used by researchers. From the available documentation, we do not expect such an inconsistency. We run a chemistry–climate model to compute the effect of the inconsistency in emissions on atmospheric chemistry and radiation and find that the radiative forcing associated with aviation ozone is 7.6 % higher when using the less recent version of the data.
Maureen Beaudor, Nicolas Vuichard, Juliette Lathière, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Martin Van Damme, Lieven Clarisse, and Didier Hauglustaine
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1053–1081, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1053-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ammonia mainly comes from the agricultural sector, and its volatilization relies on environmental variables. Our approach aims at benefiting from an Earth system model framework to estimate it. By doing so, we represent a consistent spatial distribution of the emissions' response to environmental changes.
We greatly improved the seasonal cycle of emissions compared with previous work. In addition, our model includes natural soil emissions (that are rarely represented in modeling approaches).
Joël Thanwerdas, Marielle Saunois, Isabelle Pison, Didier Hauglustaine, Antoine Berchet, Bianca Baier, Colm Sweeney, and Philippe Bousquet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15489–15508, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15489-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15489-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations have been rising since 2007, resulting from an imbalance between CH4 sources and sinks. The CH4 budget is generally estimated through top-down approaches using CH4 and δ13C(CH4) observations as constraints. The oxidation by chlorine (Cl) contributes little to the total oxidation of CH4 but strongly influences δ13C(CH4). Here, we compare multiple recent Cl fields and quantify the influence of Cl concentrations on CH4, δ13C(CH4), and CH4 budget estimates.
Johannes Pletzer, Didier Hauglustaine, Yann Cohen, Patrick Jöckel, and Volker Grewe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14323–14354, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14323-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14323-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Very fast aircraft can travel long distances in extremely short times and can fly at high altitudes (15 to 35 km). These aircraft emit water vapour, nitrogen oxides, and hydrogen. Water vapour emissions remain for months to several years at these altitudes and have an important impact on temperature. We investigate two aircraft fleets flying at 26 and 35 km. Ozone is depleted more, and the water vapour perturbation and temperature change are larger for the aircraft flying at 35 km.
Jin Maruhashi, Volker Grewe, Christine Frömming, Patrick Jöckel, and Irene C. Dedoussi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14253–14282, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14253-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14253-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aviation NOx emissions lead to the formation of ozone in the atmosphere in the short term, which has a climate warming effect. This study uses global-scale simulations to characterize the transport patterns between NOx emissions at an altitude of ~ 10.4 km and the resulting ozone. Results show a strong spatial and temporal dependence of NOx in disturbing atmospheric O3 concentrations, with the location that is most impacted in terms of warming not necessarily coinciding with the emission region.
Etienne Terrenoire, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Yann Cohen, Anne Cozic, Richard Valorso, Franck Lefèvre, and Sigrun Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11987–12023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11987-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11987-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aviation NOx emissions not only have an impact on global climate by changing ozone and methane levels in the atmosphere, but also contribute to the deterioration of local air quality. The LMDZ-INCA global model is applied to re-evaluate the impact of aircraft NOx and aerosol emissions on climate. We investigate the impact of present-day and future (2050) aircraft emissions on atmospheric composition and the associated radiative forcings of climate for ozone, methane and aerosol direct forcings.
Anthony Rey-Pommier, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Grégoire Broquet, Theodoros Christoudias, Jonilda Kushta, Didier Hauglustaine, and Jean Sciare
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11505–11527, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11505-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11505-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Emission inventories for air pollutants can be uncertain in developing countries. In order to overcome these uncertainties, we model nitrogen oxide emissions in Egypt using satellite retrievals. We detect a weekly cycle reflecting Egyptian social norms, an annual cycle consistent with electricity consumption and an activity drop due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, discrepancies with inventories remain high, illustrating the needs for additional data to improve the potential of our method.
Vanessa Simone Rieger and Volker Grewe
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5883–5903, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5883-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5883-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Road traffic emissions of nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide produce ozone in the troposphere and thus influence Earth's climate. To assess the ozone response to a broad range of mitigation strategies for road traffic, we developed a new chemistry–climate response model called TransClim. It is based on lookup tables containing climate–response relations and thus is able to quickly determine the climate response of a mitigation option.
Camille Abadie, Fabienne Maignan, Marine Remaud, Jérôme Ogée, J. Elliott Campbell, Mary E. Whelan, Florian Kitz, Felix M. Spielmann, Georg Wohlfahrt, Richard Wehr, Wu Sun, Nina Raoult, Ulli Seibt, Didier Hauglustaine, Sinikka T. Lennartz, Sauveur Belviso, David Montagne, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 19, 2427–2463, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2427-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2427-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A better constraint of the components of the carbonyl sulfide (COS) global budget is needed to exploit its potential as a proxy of gross primary productivity. In this study, we compare two representations of oxic soil COS fluxes, and we develop an approach to represent anoxic soil COS fluxes in a land surface model. We show the importance of atmospheric COS concentration variations on oxic soil COS fluxes and provide new estimates for oxic and anoxic soil contributions to the COS global budget.
Gaëlle Dufour, Didier Hauglustaine, Yunjiang Zhang, Maxim Eremenko, Yann Cohen, Audrey Gaudel, Guillaume Siour, Mathieu Lachatre, Axel Bense, Bertrand Bessagnet, Juan Cuesta, Jerry Ziemke, Valérie Thouret, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16001–16025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16001-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The IASI observations and the LMDZ-OR-INCA model simulations show negative ozone trends in the Central East China region in the lower free (3–6 km column) and the upper free (6–9 km column) troposphere. Sensitivity studies from the model show that the Chinese anthropogenic emissions contribute to more than 50 % in the trend. The reduction in NOx emissions that has occurred since 2013 in China seems to lead to a decrease in ozone in the free troposphere, contrary to the increase at the surface.
Christine Frömming, Volker Grewe, Sabine Brinkop, Patrick Jöckel, Amund S. Haslerud, Simon Rosanka, Jesper van Manen, and Sigrun Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9151–9172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9151-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9151-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of weather situations on non-CO2 aviation climate impact is investigated to identify systematic weather-related sensitivities. If aircraft avoid the most sensitive areas, climate impact might be reduced. Enhanced significance is found for emission in relation to high-pressure systems, jet stream, polar night, and tropopause altitude. The results represent a comprehensive data set for studies aiming at weather-dependent flight trajectory optimization to reduce total climate impact.
Nikolaos Evangeliou, Yves Balkanski, Sabine Eckhardt, Anne Cozic, Martin Van Damme, Pierre-François Coheur, Lieven Clarisse, Mark W. Shephard, Karen E. Cady-Pereira, and Didier Hauglustaine
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4431–4451, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4431-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4431-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Ammonia, a substance that has played a key role in sustaining life, has been increasing in the atmosphere, affecting climate and humans. Understanding the reasons for this increase is important for the beneficial use of ammonia. The evolution of satellite products gives us the opportunity to calculate ammonia emissions easier. We calculated global ammonia emissions over the last 10 years, incorporated them into a chemistry model and recorded notable improvement in reproducing observations.
Simon Rosanka, Christine Frömming, and Volker Grewe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12347–12361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12347-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12347-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Aviation-attributed nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions lead to an increase in ozone and a depletion of methane. We investigate the impact of weather-related transport processes on these induced composition changes. Subsidence in high-pressure systems leads to earlier ozone maxima due to an enhanced chemical activity. Background NOx and hydroperoxyl radicals limit the total ozone change during summer and winter, respectively. High water vapour concentrations lead to a high methane depletion.
Hiroshi Yamashita, Feijia Yin, Volker Grewe, Patrick Jöckel, Sigrun Matthes, Bastian Kern, Katrin Dahlmann, and Christine Frömming
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4869–4890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4869-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4869-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the updated submodel AirTraf 2.0 which simulates global air traffic in the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. Nine aircraft routing options have been integrated, including contrail avoidance, minimum economic costs, and minimum climate impact. Example simulations reveal characteristics of different routing options on air traffic performances. The consistency of the AirTraf simulations is verified with literature data.
Cited articles
Berton, J. J., Huff, D. L., Geiselhart, K., and Seidel, J.: Supersonic Technology Concept Aeroplanes for Environmental Studies, in: AIAA Scitech 2020 Forum, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2020-0263, 2020.
Bey, I., Jacob, D. J., Yantosca, R. M., Logan, J. A., Field, B. D., Fiore, A. M., Li, Q., Liu, H. Y., Mickley, L. J., and Schultz, M. G.: Global modeling of tropospheric chemistry with assimilated meteorology: Model description and evaluation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 106, 23073–23095, 2001.
Bian, H. and Prather, M. J.: Fast-J2: Accurate simulation of stratospheric photolysis in global chemical models, J. Atmos. Chem., 41, 281–296, 2002.
Boucher, O., Servonnat, J., Albright, A. L., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y., Bastrikov, V., Bekki, S., Bonnet, R., Bony, S., and Bopp, L.: Presentation and evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR climate model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002010, 2020.
Burkholder, J. B., Sander, S. P., Abbatt, J. P. D., Barker, J. R., Cappa, C., Crounse, J. D., Dibble, T. S., Huie, R. E., Kolb, C. E., Kurylo, M. J., Orkin, V. L., Percival, C. J., Wilmouth, D. M., and Wine, P. H.: Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Atmospheric Studies, Evaluation No. 19, JPL Publication 19-5, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, http://jpldataeval.jpl.nasa.gov (last access: 26 February 2025), 2019.
Carn, S. A., Yang, K., Prata, A. J., and Krotkov, N. A.: Extending the long-term record of volcanic SO2 emissions with the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite nadir mapper, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 925–932, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062437, 2015.
Considine, D. B., Douglass, A. R., Kinnison, D. E., Connell, P. S., and Rotman, D. A.: A polar stratospheric cloud parameterization for the three dimensional model of the global modeling initiative and its response to stratospheric aircraft emissions, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 3955–3975, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900932, 2000.
Crutzen, P. J.: SST's: A Threat to the Earth's Ozone Shield, Ambio, 1, 41–51, 1972.
Damian, V., Sandu, A., Damian, M., Potra, F., and Carmichael, G. R.: The kinetic preprocessor KPP-a software environment for solving chemical kinetics, Comput. Chem. Eng., 26, 1567–1579, 2002.
Dask Development Team: Dask; Library for dynamic task scheduling, v2023.10.0, Anaconda Inc. [code], https://dask.pydata.org (last access: 26 February 2025), 2023.
Deckert, R., Jöckel, P., Grewe, V., Gottschaldt, K.-D., and Hoor, P.: A quasi chemistry-transport model mode for EMAC, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 195–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-195-2011, 2011.
Dentener, F., Kinne, S., Bond, T., Boucher, O., Cofala, J., Generoso, S., Ginoux, P., Gong, S., Hoelzemann, J. J., Ito, A., Marelli, L., Penner, J. E., Putaud, J.-P., Textor, C., Schulz, M., van der Werf, G. R., and Wilson, J.: Emissions of primary aerosol and precursor gases in the years 2000 and 1750 prescribed data-sets for AeroCom, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 4321–4344, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-4321-2006, 2006.
Dietmüller, S., Jöckel, P., Tost, H., Kunze, M., Gellhorn, C., Brinkop, S., Frömming, C., Ponater, M., Steil, B., Lauer, A., and Hendricks, J.: A new radiation infrastructure for the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy, based on version 2.51), Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2209–2222, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2209-2016, 2016.
Eastham, S. D., Weisenstein, D. K., and Barrett, S. R. H.: Development and evaluation of the unified tropospheric–stratospheric chemistry extension (UCX) for the global chemistry-transport model GEOS-Chem, Atmos. Environ., 89, 52–63, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.02.001, 2014.
Eastham, S. D., Long, M. S., Keller, C. A., Lundgren, E., Yantosca, R. M., Zhuang, J., Li, C., Lee, C. J., Yannetti, M., Auer, B. M., Clune, T. L., Kouatchou, J., Putman, W. M., Thompson, M. A., Trayanov, A. L., Molod, A. M., Martin, R. V., and Jacob, D. J.: GEOS-Chem High Performance (GCHP v11-02c): a next-generation implementation of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model for massively parallel applications, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2941–2953, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2941-2018, 2018a.
Eastham, S. D., Weisenstein, D. K., Keith, D. W., and Barrett, S. R. H.: Quantifying the impact of sulfate geoengineering on mortality from air quality and UV-B exposure, Atmos. Environ., 187, 424–434, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2018.05.047, 2018b.
Eastham, S. D., Fritz, T., Sanz-Morère, I., Prashanth, P., Allroggen, F., Prinn, R. G., Speth, R. L., and Barrett, S. R. H.: Impacts of a near-future supersonic aircraft fleet on atmospheric composition and climate, Environmental Science: Atmospheres, 2, 388–403, https://doi.org/10.1039/d1ea00081k, 2022.
Edwards, J. M. and Slingo, A.: Studies with a flexible new radiation code. I: Choosing a configuration for a large-scale model, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 689–719, 1996.
Emanuel, K. A.: A scheme for representing cumulus convection in large-scale models, J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 2313–2329, 1991.
Emmons, L. K., Walters, S., Hess, P. G., Lamarque, J.-F., Pfister, G. G., Fillmore, D., Granier, C., Guenther, A., Kinnison, D., Laepple, T., Orlando, J., Tie, X., Tyndall, G., Wiedinmyer, C., Baughcum, S. L., and Kloster, S.: Description and evaluation of the Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4), Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 43–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-43-2010, 2010 (code available at: https://www2.acom.ucar.edu/gcm/mozart-4, last access: 26 February 2025).
Flemming, J., Inness, A., Jones, L., Eskes, H. J., Huijnen, V., Schultz, M. G., Stein, O., Cariolle, D., Kinnison, D., and Brasseur, G.: Forecasts and assimilation experiments of the Antarctic ozone hole 2008, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 1961–1977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-1961-2011, 2011.
Folberth, G. A., Hauglustaine, D. A., Lathière, J., and Brocheton, F.: Interactive chemistry in the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique general circulation model: model description and impact analysis of biogenic hydrocarbons on tropospheric chemistry, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 2273–2319, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-2273-2006, 2006.
Fouquart, Y. and Bonel, B.: Computations of solar heating of the earth's atmosphere: a new parameterization, Beitr. Phys. Atmos., 53, 35–62, 1980.
Freeman, S., Lee, D. S., Lim, L. L., Skowron, A., and De León, R. R.: Trading off Aircraft Fuel Burn and NOx Emissions for Optimal Climate Policy, Environ. Sci. Technol., 52, 2498–2505, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.7b05719, 2018.
Fritz, T. M., Dedoussi, I. C., Eastham, S. D., Speth, R. L., Henze, D. K., and Barrett, S. R. H.: Identifying the ozone-neutral aircraft cruise altitude, Atmos. Environ., 276, 119057, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2022.119057, 2022.
Ganzeveld, L. N., van Aardenne, J. A., Butler, T. M., Lawrence, M. G., Metzger, S. M., Stier, P., Zimmermann, P., and Lelieveld, J.: Technical Note: Anthropogenic and natural offline emissions and the online EMissions and dry DEPosition submodel EMDEP of the Modular Earth Submodel system (MESSy), Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 6, 5457–5483, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-6-5457-2006, 2006.
Gelaro, R., McCarty, W., Suárez, M. J., Todling, R., Molod, A., Takacs, L., Randles, C. A., Darmenov, A., Bosilovich, M. G., Reichle, R., Wargan, K., Coy, L., Cullather, R., Draper, C., Akella, S., Buchard, V., Conaty, A., da Silva, A. M., Gu, W., Kim, G.-K., Koster, R., Lucchesi, R., Merkova, D., Nielsen, J. E., Partyka, G., Pawson, S., Putman, W., Rienecker, M., Schubert, S. D., Sienkiewicz, M., and Zhao, B.: The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), J. Climate, 30, 5419–5454, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0758.1, 2017.
Gottschaldt, K., Voigt, C., Jöckel, P., Righi, M., Deckert, R., and Dietmüller, S.: Global sensitivity of aviation NOx effects to the HNO3-forming channel of the HO2 + NO reaction, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3003–3025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3003-2013, 2013.
Granier, C. and Brasseur, G.: Impact of heterogeneous chemistry on model predictions of ozone changes, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 97, 18015–18033, https://doi.org/10.1029/92JD02021, 1992.
Grewe, V. and Stenke, A.: AirClim: an efficient tool for climate evaluation of aircraft technology, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 4621–4639, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-4621-2008, 2008.
Grewe, V., Stenke, A., Ponater, M., Sausen, R., Pitari, G., Iachetti, D., Rogers, H., Dessens, O., Pyle, J., Isaksen, I. S. A., Gulstad, L., Søvde, O. A., Marizy, C., and Pascuillo, E.: Climate impact of supersonic air traffic: an approach to optimize a potential future supersonic fleet – results from the EU-project SCENIC, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 5129–5145, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-5129-2007, 2007.
Grewe, V., Plohr, M., Cerino, G., Di Muzio, M., Deremaux, Y., Galerneau, M., de Saint Martin, P., Chaika, T., Hasselrot, A., Tengzelius, U., and Korovkin, V. D.: Estimates of the climate impact of future small-scale supersonic transport aircraft – results from the HISAC EU-project, Aeronaut. J., 114, 199–206, 2010.
Hauglustaine, D. A., Hourdin, F., Jourdain, L., Filiberti, M.-A., Walters, S., Lamarque, J.-F., and Holland, E. A.: Interactive chemistry in the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique general circulation model: Description and background tropospheric chemistry evaluation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 109, D04314, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003957, 2004 (code available at: https://forge.ipsl.fr/igcmg_doc/wiki/Doc/Config/LMDZORINCA, last access: 26 February 2025).
Hauglustaine, D. A., Balkanski, Y., and Schulz, M.: A global model simulation of present and future nitrate aerosols and their direct radiative forcing of climate, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11031–11063, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11031-2014, 2014.
Hourdin, F. and Armengaud, A.: The use of finite-volume methods for atmospheric advection of trace species. Part I: Test of various formulations in a general circulation model, Mon. Weather Rev., 127, 822–837, 1999.
Hourdin, F., Rio, C., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Madeleine, J.-B., Cheruy, F., Rochetin, N., Jam, A., Musat, I., Idelkadi, A., and Fairhead, L.: LMDZ6A: The atmospheric component of the IPSL climate model with improved and better tuned physics, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001892, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001892, 2020.
Hoyer, S. , Roos, M., Joseph, H., Magin, J., Cherian, D., Fitzgerald, C., Hauser, M., Fujii, K., Maussion, F., Imperiale, G., Clark, S., Kleeman, A., Nicholas, T., Kluyver, T., Westling, J., Munroe, J., Amici, A., Barghini, A., Banihirwe, A., Bell, R., Hatfield-Dodds, Z., Abernathey, R., Bovy, B., Omotani, J., Mühlbauer, K., Roszko, M. K., and Wolfram, P. J.: xarray (v2023.09.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8379187, 2023.
IPCC: Special report on aviation and the global atmosphere, edited by: Penner, J. E., Lister, D. H., Griggs, D. J., Dokken, D. J., and McFarland, M., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, UK, 373 pp., 1999.
Jöckel, P., Kerkweg, A., Pozzer, A., Sander, R., Tost, H., Riede, H., Baumgaertner, A., Gromov, S., and Kern, B.: Development cycle 2 of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy2), Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 717–752, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-717-2010, 2010.
Jöckel, P., Tost, H., Pozzer, A., Kunze, M., Kirner, O., Brenninkmeijer, C. A. M., Brinkop, S., Cai, D. S., Dyroff, C., Eckstein, J., Frank, F., Garny, H., Gottschaldt, K.-D., Graf, P., Grewe, V., Kerkweg, A., Kern, B., Matthes, S., Mertens, M., Meul, S., Neumaier, M., Nützel, M., Oberländer-Hayn, S., Ruhnke, R., Runde, T., Sander, R., Scharffe, D., and Zahn, A.: Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) with the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) version 2.51, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1153–1200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1153-2016, 2016.
Johnston, H.: Reduction of stratospheric ozone by nitrogen oxide catalysts from supersonic transport exhaust, Science, 173, 517–522, 1971.
Kawa, S. R., Anderson, J. G., Baughcum, S. L., Brock, C. A., Brune, W. H., Cohen, R. C., Kinnison, D. E., Newman, P. A., Rodriquez, J. M., and Stolarski, R. S.: Assessment of the effects of high-speed aircraft in the stratosphere: 1998, NASA Tech. Memo. TM-1999-209237, 1999.
Keller, C. A., Knowland, K. E., Duncan, B. N., Liu, J., Anderson, D. C., Das, S., Lucchesi, R. A., Lundgren, E. W., Nicely, J. M., Nielsen, E., Ott, L. E., Saunders, E., Strode, S. A., Wales, P. A., Jacob, D. J., and Pawson, S.: Description of the NASA GEOS Composition Forecast Modeling System GEOS-CF v1.0, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 13, e2020MS002413, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002413, 2021.
Kinnison, D., Brasseur, G. P., Baughcum, S. L., Zhang, J., and Wuebbles, D.: The Impact on the Ozone Layer of a Potential Fleet of Civil Hypersonic Aircraft, Earths Future, 8, e2020EF001626, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ef001626, 2020.
Kinnison, D. E., Brasseur, G. P., Walters, S., Garcia, R. R., Marsh, D. R., Sassi, F., Harvey, V. L., Randall, C. E., Emmons, L., Lamarque, J. F., Hess, P., Orlando, J. J., Tie, X. X., Randel, W., Pan, L. L., Gettelman, A., Granier, C., Diehl, T., Niemeier, U., and Simmons, A. J.: Sensitivity of chemical tracers to meteorological parameters in the MOZART-3 chemical transport model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 112, D20302, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007879, 2007.
Kirner, O., Ruhnke, R., Buchholz-Dietsch, J., Jöckel, P., Brühl, C., and Steil, B.: Simulation of polar stratospheric clouds in the chemistry-climate-model EMAC via the submodel PSC, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 169–182, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-169-2011, 2011.
Kirner, O., Ruhnke, R., and Sinnhuber, B.-M.: Chemistry–Climate Interactions of Stratospheric and Mesospheric Ozone in EMAC Long-Term Simulations with Different Boundary Conditions for CO2, CH4, N2O, and ODS, Atmos.-Ocean 53, 140–152, https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2014.980718, 2014.
Kunze, M., Godolt, M., Langematz, U., Grenfell, J. L., Hamann-Reinus, A., and Rauer, H.: Investigating the early Earth faint young Sun problem with a general circulation model, Planet. Space Sci., 98, 77–92, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pss.2013.09.011, 2014.
Lee, D. S., Fahey, D. W., Skowron, A., Allen, M. R., Burkhardt, U., Chen, Q., Doherty, S. J., Freeman, S., Forster, P. M., Fuglestvedt, J., Gettelman, A., De León, R. R., Lim, L. L., Lund, M. T., Millar, R. J., Owen, B., Penner, J. E., Pitari, G., Prather, M. J., Sausen, R., and Wilcox, L. J.: The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018, Atmos. Environ., 244, 117834, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117834, 2021.
Lefèvre, F., Brasseur, G. P., Folkins, I., Smith, A. K., and Simon, P.: Chemistry of the 1991–1992 stratospheric winter: Three-dimensional model simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 99, 8183–8195, 1994.
Liu, Y., Liu, C. X., Wang, H. P., Tie, X. X., Gao, S. T., Kinnison, D., and Brasseur, G.: Atmospheric tracers during the 2003–2004 stratospheric warming event and impact of ozone intrusions in the troposphere, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 2157–2170, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-2157-2009, 2009.
Manners, J., Edwards, J. M., Hill, P., and Thelen, J. C.: SOCRATES (Suite of Community Radiative Transfer codes based on Edwards and Slingo), UK's Met Office Science Repository [code], https://code.metoffice.gov.uk/trac/socrates (last access: 24 Feburary 2025), 2015.
Matthes, S., Lee, D. S., De Leon, R. R., Lim, L., Owen, B., Skowron, A., Thor, R. N., and Terrenoire, E.: Review: The Effects of Supersonic Aviation on Ozone and Climate, Aerospace, 9, 41, https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace9010041, 2022.
Meinshausen, M., Smith, S. J., Calvin, K., Daniel, J. S., Kainuma, M. L. T., Lamarque, J-F., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S. A., Raper, S. C. B., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Velders, G. J. M., and van Vuuren, G. J. M.: The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300, Clim. Change, 109, 213–241, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z, 2011.
Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., Smith, S. J., van den Berg, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., and Wang, R. H. J.: The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, 2020.
Morcrette, J.-J.: Radiation and cloud radiative properties in the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts forecasting system, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 9121–9132, 1991.
Nützel, M., Stecher, L., Jöckel, P., Winterstein, F., Dameris, M., Ponater, M., Graf, P., and Kunze, M.: Updating the radiation infrastructure in MESSy (based on MESSy version 2.55), Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5821–5849, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5821-2024, 2024.
Olsen, S. C., Brasseur, G. P., Wuebbles, D. J., Barrett, S. R. H., Dang, H., Eastham, S. D., Jacobson, M. Z., Khodayari, A., Selkirk, H., Sokolov, A., and Unger, N.: Comparison of model estimates of the effects of aviation emissions on atmospheric ozone and methane, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 6004–6009, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057660, 2013.
Pincus, R. and Stevens, B.: Paths to accuracy for radiation parameterizations in atmospheric models, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 5, 225–233, 2013.
Pitari, G., Iachetti, D., Mancini, E., Montanaro, V., De Luca, N., Marizy, C., Dessens, O., Rogers, H., Pyle, J., Grewe, V., Stenke, A., and Søvde, O. A.: Radiative forcing from particle emissions by future supersonic aircraft, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 4069–4084, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-4069-2008, 2008.
Pitari, G., Aquila, V., Kravitz, B., Robock, A., Watanabe, S., Cionni, I., De Luca, N., Di Genova, G., Mancini, E., and Tilmes, S.: Stratospheric ozone response to sulfate geoengineering: Results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), J. Geophys. Res., 119, 2629–2653, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013jd020566, 2014.
Pletzer, J. and Grewe, V.: Sensitivities of atmospheric composition and climate to altitude and latitude of hypersonic aircraft emissions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1743–1775, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1743-2024, 2024.
Pletzer, J., Hauglustaine, D., Cohen, Y., Jöckel, P., and Grewe, V.: The climate impact of hydrogen-powered hypersonic transport, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14323–14354, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14323-2022, 2022.
Python Software Foundation: Python 3.11, Python Software Foundation [code], https://www.python.org/downloads/release/python-3110/ (last access: 26 February 2025), 2022.
Revell, L. E., Tummon, F., Stenke, A., Sukhodolov, T., Coulon, A., Rozanov, E., Garny, H., Grewe, V., and Peter, T.: Drivers of the tropospheric ozone budget throughout the 21st century under the medium-high climate scenario RCP 6.0, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5887–5902, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5887-2015, 2015.
Roeckner, E., Bäuml, G., Bonaventura, L., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kirchner, I., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Rhodin, A., Schlese, U., Schulzweida, U., and Tompkins, A.: The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM 5. PART I: Model description, Report, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, 349, https://doi.org/10.17617/2.995269, 2003.
Roeckner, E., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Schlese, U., and Schulzweida, U.: Sensitivity of Simulated Climate to Horizontal and Vertical Resolution in the ECHAM5 Atmosphere Model, J. Climate, 19, 3771–3791, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3824.1, 2006.
Rosenfield, J. E. and Douglass, A. R.: Doubled CO2 effects on NOy in a coupled 2D model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 4381–4384, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998GL900147, 1998.
Sander, R., Baumgaertner, A., Gromov, S., Harder, H., Jöckel, P., Kerkweg, A., Kubistin, D., Regelin, E., Riede, H., Sandu, A., Taraborrelli, D., Tost, H., and Xie, Z.-Q.: The atmospheric chemistry box model CAABA/MECCA-3.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 373–380, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-373-2011, 2011.
Sander, S. P., Finlayson-Pitts, B., Friedl, R. R., Golden, D. M., Huie, R., Keller-Rudek, H., Kolb, C. E., Kurylo, M., Molina, M., Moortgat, G., Orkin, V., Ravishankara, A. R., and Wine, P.: Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Atmospheric Studies, Evaluation No. 15, JPL Open Repository, http://hdl.handle.net/2014/39839 (last access: 26 February 2025), 2006.
Skowron, A., Lee, D. S., and De León, R. R.: The assessment of the impact of aviation NOx on ozone and other radiative forcing responses – The importance of representing cruise altitudes accurately, Atmos. Environ., 74, 159–168, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ATMOSENV.2013.03.034, 2013.
Skowron, A., Lee, D. S., and De León, R. R.: Variation of radiative forcings and global warming potentials from regional aviation NOx emissions, Atmos. Environ., 104, 69–78, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.12.043, 2015.
Skowron, A., Lee, D. S., De León, R. R., Lim, L. L., and Owen, B.: Greater fuel efficiency is potentially preferable to reducing NOx emissions for aviation's climate impacts, Nat. Commun., 12, 564, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20771-3, 2021.
Solomon, S.: Stratospheric ozone depletion: A review of concepts and history, Rev. Geophys., 37, 275–316, 1999.
Søvde, O. A., Matthes, S., Skowron, A., Iachetti, D., Lim, L., Owen, B., Hodnebrog, Ø., Di Genova, G., Pitari, G., Lee, D. S., Myhre, G., and Isaksen, I. S. A.: Aircraft emission mitigation by changing route altitude: A multi-model estimate of aircraft NOx emission impact on O3 photochemistry, Atmos. Environ., 95, 468–479, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ATMOSENV.2014.06.049, 2014.
Speth, R. L., Eastham, S. D., Fritz, T. M., Sanz-Morére, I., Agarwal, A., Prashanth, P., Allroggen, F., and Barrett, S. R. H.: Global Environmental Impact of Supersonic Cruise Aircraft in the Stratosphere, NASA contractor report, NASA, NASA/CR-20205009400, 2021.
Stenke, A., Grewe, V., and Pechtl, S.: Do supersonic aircraft avoid contrails?, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 955–967, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-955-2008, 2008.
Strahan, S. E. and Polansky, B. C.: Meteorological implementation issues in chemistry and transport models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 2895–2910, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-2895-2006, 2006.
Terrenoire, E., Hauglustaine, D. A., Cohen, Y., Cozic, A., Valorso, R., Lefèvre, F., and Matthes, S.: Impact of present and future aircraft NOx and aerosol emissions on atmospheric composition and associated direct radiative forcing of climate, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11987–12023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11987-2022, 2022.
The International GEOS-Chem User Community: geoschem/GCHP: GCHP 14.1.1, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7696683, 2023.
The International GEOS-Chem User Community: geoschem/GCHP: GCHP 14.3.0 (14.3.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10640559, 2024.
The Matplotlib Development Team: Matplotlib: Visualization with Python (v3.8.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8347255, 2023.
The MESSy Consortium: The Modular Earth Submodel System (2.55.2), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8360276, 2021.
Van Leer, B.: Towards the ultimate conservative difference scheme. IV. A new approach to numerical convection, J. Comput. Phys., 23, 276–299, 1977.
van 't Hoff, J. A., Grewe, V., and Dedoussi, I. C.: Sensitivities of Ozone and Radiative Forcing to Supersonic Aircraft Emissions Across Two Flight Corridors, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 129, e2023JD040476, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD040476, 2024.
van 't Hoff, J. A., Hauglustaine D., Pletzer, J., Skowron S., Grewe V., Matthes, S., Meuser, M., Thor, R. N., and Dedoussi, I. C.: Supporting dataset for “Multi-model assessment of the atmospheric and radiative effects of supersonic transport aircraft”, Version 1, 4TU.ResearchData [data set], https://doi.org/10.4121/dd38833d-6c5d-47d8-bb10-7535ce1eecf1, 2025.
Zhang, J., Wuebbles, D., Kinnison, D., and Baughcum, S. L.: Stratospheric Ozone and Climate Forcing Sensitivity to Cruise Altitudes for Fleets of Potential Supersonic Transport Aircraft, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2021JD034971, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021jd034971, 2021a.
Zhang, J., Wuebbles, D., Kinnison, D., and Baughcum, S. L.: Potential Impacts of Supersonic Aircraft Emissions on Ozone and Resulting Forcing on Climate: An Update on Historical Analysis, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD034130, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034130, 2021b.
Zhang, J., Wuebbles, D., Pfaender, J. H., Kinnison, D., and Davis, N.: Potential Impacts on Ozone and Climate From a Proposed Fleet of Supersonic Aircraft, Earths Future, 11, e2022EF003409, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003409, 2023.
Short summary
Civil supersonic aircraft may return in the near future, and their emissions could lead to atmospheric changes which are detrimental to public health and the climate. We use four atmospheric chemistry models and show that emissions from a future supersonic aircraft fleet increase stratospheric nitrogen and water vapor levels, while depleting the global ozone column and leading to increases in radiative forcing. Their impacts can be reduced by reducing NOx emissions or the cruise altitude.
Civil supersonic aircraft may return in the near future, and their emissions could lead to...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint