Articles | Volume 15, issue 20
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11571–11592, 2015
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11571–11592, 2015

Research article 21 Oct 2015

Research article | 21 Oct 2015

Granger causality from changes in level of atmospheric CO2 to global surface temperature and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and a candidate mechanism in global photosynthesis

L. M. W. Leggett and D. A. Ball

Related subject area

Subject: Biosphere Interactions | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
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Cited articles

Adams, J. M. and Piovesan, G.: Long series relationships between global interannual CO2 increment and climate: Evidence for stability and change in role of the tropical and boreal-temperate zones, Chemosphere, 59, 1595–1612, 2005.
Attanasio, A. and Triacca, U.: Detecting human influence on climate using neural networks based Granger causality, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 103, 103–107, 2011.
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Banerjee, A., Dolado, J., Galbraith, J. W., and Hendry, D. F.: Co-integration, error-correction, and the econometric analysis of non-stationary data, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1993.
Short summary
The previously expected linear relationship between atmospheric CO2 and climate variables including temperature is showing an increasing mismatch. This paper nonetheless provides fresh and possibly definitive support for a major relationship between CO2 and climate. Granger causality analysis provides evidence that change in level not level of CO2 primarily influences both global temperature and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The results may contribute to the prediction of future climate.
Final-revised paper