Articles | Volume 15, issue 20
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11571–11592, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11571-2015
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11571–11592, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11571-2015

Research article 21 Oct 2015

Research article | 21 Oct 2015

Granger causality from changes in level of atmospheric CO2 to global surface temperature and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and a candidate mechanism in global photosynthesis

L. M. W. Leggett and D. A. Ball

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Short summary
The previously expected linear relationship between atmospheric CO2 and climate variables including temperature is showing an increasing mismatch. This paper nonetheless provides fresh and possibly definitive support for a major relationship between CO2 and climate. Granger causality analysis provides evidence that change in level not level of CO2 primarily influences both global temperature and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The results may contribute to the prediction of future climate.
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