Articles | Volume 15, issue 17
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10033-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10033-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Sep 2015
Research article |
| 08 Sep 2015
Impact of 2050 climate change on North American wildfire: consequences for ozone air quality
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
now at: School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
L. J. Mickley
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
J. A. Logan
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
R. C. Hudman
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
now at: Environmental Protection Agency, Region 9, San Francisco, California, USA
M. V. Martin
Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
R. M. Yantosca
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
Related authors
Weijie Fu, Xu Yue, Chenguang Tian, Rongbin Xu, and Yuming Guo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2266, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2266, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering could cool Earth by blocking sunlight, but its impacts on extreme droughts are unclear. Our analysis of global climate simulations shows this approach might reduce extreme droughts overall. However, benefits are uneven: poorer nations face far higher drought risks compared to wealthier regions. These disparities stress the urgent need for policymakers to prioritize fairness when evaluating geoengineering strategies.
Yuxin Zheng, Xu Yue, Xiaofei Lu, and Jun Zhu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1515, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1515, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary
Short summary
The sensitivity of gross primary productivity (GPP) to climate varies across regions and ecosystem types. Our study shows that warming enhances GPP in boreal regions but suppresses it in the tropics. Increased precipitation generally promotes GPP but has limited effects on tree species. However, current models tend to overestimate GPP responses to precipitation, resulting in greater GPP variability during drought events.
Yufen Wang, Ke Li, Xi Chen, Zhenjiang Yang, Minglong Tang, Pascoal M. D. Campos, Yang Yang, Xu Yue, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4455–4475, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4455-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4455-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions on high tropospheric ozone levels are not well studied in southern Africa. We combined model simulations with recent observations at the surface and from space to quantify tropospheric ozone and its drivers in southern Africa. Our work focuses on the impact of emissions from different sources at different spatial scales, contributing to a comprehensive understanding of air pollution drivers and their uncertainties in southern Africa.
Ling Kang, Hong Liao, Ke Li, Xu Yue, Yang Yang, and Ye Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3603–3621, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3603-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3603-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Using the model of Global Change and Air Pollution version 2.0, climate change over 2010–2045 under a carbon neutrality scenario is simulated to increase summertime maximum daily 8 h average ozone (O3) levels in eastern China, the North China Plain, and the Yangtze River Delta by 2.3, 4.7, and 3.0 ppbv, respectively. Temperature, radiation, and relative humidity are the key meteorological parameters and net chemical production is the key process in climate-driven O3 increases in eastern China.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda R. Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Xin Lan, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Yonghang Hu, Chenguang Tian, Xu Yue, Yadong Lei, Yang Cao, Rongbin Xu, and Yuming Guo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-414, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-414, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a global dataset of daily fire-sourced PM2.5 concentration at a spatial resolution of 0.25° for 2000–2023, using a chemical transport model driven with two fire emission inventories and a machine learning approach trained with ground measurements from over 9000 sites. The dataset shows significant spatiotemporal variations of fire PM2.5 in the past decades, serving a useful tool for exploring the impacts of fire-related air pollutants on climate, ecosystems, and public health.
Xinyi Zhou, Xu Yue, Chenguang Tian, and Xiaofei Lu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9923–9937, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9923-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With a climate–vegetation–chemistry coupled model, we explore global climatic responses to the ozone–vegetation interactions of the present day. We find strong warming and drying effects due to the ozone-induced inhibition on plant stomatal conductance, especially over polluted regions such as the eastern US and China. These climatic perturbations further enhance surface ozone by decreasing dry deposition but reduce aerosol optical depth by increasing cloudiness and the drought tendency.
Xu Yue, Hao Zhou, Chenguang Tian, Yimian Ma, Yihan Hu, Cheng Gong, Hui Zheng, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4621–4642, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4621-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We develop the interactive Model for Air Pollution and Land Ecosystems (iMAPLE). The model considers the full coupling between carbon and water cycles, dynamic fire emissions, wetland methane emissions, biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, and trait-based ozone vegetation damage. Evaluations show that iMAPLE is a useful tool for the study of the interactions among climate, chemistry, and ecosystems.
Nanhong Xie, Tijian Wang, Xiaodong Xie, Xu Yue, Filippo Giorgi, Qian Zhang, Danyang Ma, Rong Song, Beiyao Xu, Shu Li, Bingliang Zhuang, Mengmeng Li, Min Xie, Natalya Andreeva Kilifarska, Georgi Gadzhev, and Reneta Dimitrova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3259–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3259-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3259-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, we coupled a regional climate chemistry model, RegCM-Chem, with a dynamic vegetation model, YIBs, to create a regional climate–chemistry–ecology model, RegCM-Chem–YIBs. We applied it to simulate climatic, chemical, and ecological parameters in East Asia and fully validated it on a variety of observational data. Results show that RegCM-Chem–YIBs model is a valuable tool for studying the terrestrial carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change on a regional scale.
Jiachen Cao, Xu Yue, and Mingrui Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3973–3987, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3973-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We implemented two widely used ozone damage schemes into a same regional model. Although the two schemes yielded distinct ozone vegetation damages, they predicted similar feedbacks to surface air temperature and ozone air quality in China. Our results highlighted the significance of ozone pollution control given its detrimental impacts on ecosystem functions, contributions to global warming, and amplifications of ozone pollution through ozone–vegetation coupling.
Yang Yang, Yang Zhou, Hailong Wang, Mengyun Li, Huimin Li, Pinya Wang, Xu Yue, Ke Li, Jia Zhu, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1177–1191, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1177-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1177-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study reveals that extreme ozone pollution over the North China Plain and Yangtze River Delta is due to the chemical production related to hot and dry conditions, and the regional transport explains the ozone pollution over the Sichuan Basin and Pearl River Delta. The frequency of meteorological conditions of the extreme ozone pollution increases from the past to the future. The sustainable scenario is the optimal path to retaining clean air in China in the future.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Yuan Zhao, Xu Yue, Yang Cao, Jun Zhu, Chenguang Tian, Hao Zhou, Yuwen Chen, Yihan Hu, Weijie Fu, and Xu Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7823–7838, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We project the future changes of dust emissions and loading using an ensemble of model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 under four scenarios. We find increased dust emissions and loading in North Africa, due to increased drought and strengthened surface wind, and decreased dust loading over Asia, following enhanced precipitation. Such a spatial pattern remains similar, though the regional intensity varies among different scenarios.
Yimian Ma, Xu Yue, Stephen Sitch, Nadine Unger, Johan Uddling, Lina M. Mercado, Cheng Gong, Zhaozhong Feng, Huiyi Yang, Hao Zhou, Chenguang Tian, Yang Cao, Yadong Lei, Alexander W. Cheesman, Yansen Xu, and Maria Carolina Duran Rojas
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2261–2276, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2261-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Plants have been found to respond differently to O3, but the variations in the sensitivities have rarely been explained nor fully implemented in large-scale assessment. This study proposes a new O3 damage scheme with leaf mass per area to unify varied sensitivities for all plant species. Our assessment reveals an O3-induced reduction of 4.8 % in global GPP, with the highest reduction of >10 % for cropland, suggesting an emerging risk of crop yield loss under the threat of O3 pollution.
Giacomo Grassi, Clemens Schwingshackl, Thomas Gasser, Richard A. Houghton, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Alessandro Cescatti, Philippe Ciais, Sandro Federici, Pierre Friedlingstein, Werner A. Kurz, Maria J. Sanz Sanchez, Raúl Abad Viñas, Ramdane Alkama, Selma Bultan, Guido Ceccherini, Stefanie Falk, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Anu Korosuo, Joana Melo, Matthew J. McGrath, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Benjamin Poulter, Anna A. Romanovskaya, Simone Rossi, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1093–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1093-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1093-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Striking differences exist in estimates of land-use CO2 fluxes between the national greenhouse gas inventories and the IPCC assessment reports. These differences hamper an accurate assessment of the collective progress under the Paris Agreement. By implementing an approach that conceptually reconciles land-use CO2 flux from national inventories and the global models used by the IPCC, our study is an important step forward for increasing confidence in land-use CO2 flux estimates.
Huibin Dai, Hong Liao, Ke Li, Xu Yue, Yang Yang, Jia Zhu, Jianbing Jin, Baojie Li, and Xingwen Jiang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 23–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-23-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-23-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We apply the 3-D global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to simulate co-polluted days by O3 and PM2.5 (O3–PM2.5PDs) in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei in 2013–2020 and investigate the chemical and physical characteristics of O3–PM2.5PDs by composited analyses of such days that are captured by both the observations and the model. We report for the first time the unique features in vertical distributions of aerosols during O3–PM2.5PDs and the physical and chemical characteristics of O3–PM2.5PDs.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Chenguang Tian, Xu Yue, Jun Zhu, Hong Liao, Yang Yang, Yadong Lei, Xinyi Zhou, Hao Zhou, Yimian Ma, and Yang Cao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12353–12366, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12353-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12353-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the impacts of fire aerosols on climate through direct, indirect, and albedo effects. In atmosphere-only simulations, we find global fire aerosols cause surface cooling and rainfall inhibition over many land regions. These fast atmospheric perturbations further lead to a reduction in regional leaf area index and lightning activities. By considering the feedback of fire aerosols on humidity, lightning, and leaf area index, we predict a slight reduction in fire emissions.
Jiyuan Gao, Yang Yang, Hailong Wang, Pinya Wang, Huimin Li, Mengyun Li, Lili Ren, Xu Yue, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7131–7142, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7131-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
China has been implementing a sequence of policies for clean air since the year 2013. The aerosol decline produced a 0.09 ± 0.10°C warming during 2013–2017 estimated in this study, and the increase in ozone in the lower troposphere during this time period accelerated the warming, leading to a total 0.16 ± 0.15°C temperature increase in eastern China. Residential emission reductions led to a cooling effect because of a substantial decrease in light-absorbing aerosols.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Hao Zhou, Xu Yue, Yadong Lei, Chenguang Tian, Jun Zhu, Yimian Ma, Yang Cao, Xixi Yin, and Zhiding Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 693–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-693-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-693-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols enhance plant photosynthesis by increasing diffuse radiation. In this study, we found that the aerosol impacts are quite different for varied species. Scattering aerosols such as sulfate and organic carbon promote photosynthesis while absorbing aerosols such as black carbon have negative impacts. Earth system models should consider the impacts of cloud and aerosol species on terrestrial ecosystems so as to better predict carbon cycles under different emission scenarios.
Yadong Lei, Xu Yue, Hong Liao, Lin Zhang, Yang Yang, Hao Zhou, Chenguang Tian, Cheng Gong, Yimian Ma, Lan Gao, and Yang Cao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11531–11543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11531-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11531-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first estimate of ozone enhancement by fire emissions through ozone–vegetation interactions using a fully coupled chemistry–vegetation model (GC-YIBs). In fire-prone areas, fire-induced ozone causes a positive feedback to surface ozone mainly because of the inhibition effects on stomatal conductance.
Jasdeep Singh Anand, Alessandro Anav, Marcello Vitale, Daniele Peano, Nadine Unger, Xu Yue, Robert J. Parker, and Hartmut Boesch
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-125, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-125, 2021
Publication in BG not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone damages plants, which prevents them from absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere. This poses a potential threat to preventing dangerous climate change. In this work, satellite observations of forest cover, ozone, climate, and growing season are combined with an empirical model to estimate the carbon lost due to ozone exposure over Europe. The estimated carbon losses agree well with prior modelled estimates, showing for the first time that satellites can be used to better understand this effect.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Cheng Gong, Yadong Lei, Yimian Ma, Xu Yue, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3841–3857, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3841-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3841-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate ozone–vegetation feedback using a fully coupled chemistry–carbon–climate global model (ModelE2-YIBs). Ozone damage to photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, and isoprene emissions parameterized by different schemes and sensitivities is jointly considered. In general, surface ozone concentrations are increased due to ozone–vegetation interactions, especially over the regions with a high ambient ozone level such as the eastern US, eastern China, and western Europe.
Yadong Lei, Xu Yue, Hong Liao, Cheng Gong, and Lin Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1137–1153, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1137-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1137-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We coupled a dynamic vegetation model YIBs with the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem to develop a new tool for studying interactions between atmospheric chemistry and biosphere. Within this framework, leaf area index and stomatal conductance are predicted for chemical simulations. In turn, surface ozone causes negative impacts to plant growth and the consequent dry deposition. Such interactions are important for air pollution prediction but ignored in most of current chemical models.
Xu Yue, Hong Liao, Huijun Wang, Tianyi Zhang, Nadine Unger, Stephen Sitch, Zhaozhong Feng, and Jia Yang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2353–2366, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2353-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2353-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We explore ecosystem responses in China to 1.5 °C global warming under stabilized versus transient pathways. Remarkably, GPP shows 30 % higher enhancement in the stabilized than the transient pathway because of the lower ozone (smaller damages to photosynthesis) and fewer aerosols (higher light availability) in the former pathway. Our analyses suggest that an associated reduction of CO2 and pollution emissions brings more benefits to ecosystems in China via 1.5 °C global warming.
Xu Yue, Susanna Strada, Nadine Unger, and Aihui Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13699–13719, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13699-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13699-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change will significantly increase wildfire emissions in boreal North America by the midcentury, leading to increased surface ozone and atmospheric aerosols. These air pollutants can affect vegetation photosynthesis through stomatal uptake (for ozone) and radiative and climatic perturbations (for aerosols). Using a carbon–chemistry–climate model, we estimate trivial ozone vegetation damages but significant aerosol-induced reduction in ecosystem productivity by the 2050s.
Xu Yue, Nadine Unger, Kandice Harper, Xiangao Xia, Hong Liao, Tong Zhu, Jingfeng Xiao, Zhaozhong Feng, and Jing Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6073–6089, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6073-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6073-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
While it is widely recognized that air pollutants adversely affect human health and climate change, their impacts on the regional carbon balance are less well understood. We apply an Earth system model to quantify the combined effects of ozone and aerosol particles on net primary production in China. Ozone vegetation damage dominates over the aerosol effects, leading to a substantial net suppression of land carbon uptake in the present and future worlds.
Xu Yue and Nadine Unger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1329–1342, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1329-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1329-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We study aerosol effects on net primary productivity (NPP) in China through perturbations in diffuse and direct radiation. Regional NPP responses are diverse, depending on local aerosol optical depth (AOD) and cloud amount. Two AOD threshold maps are derived to determine the potential for aerosol diffuse fertilization effects. The net impact of aerosol pollution is limited in China due to dense cloud cover, as well as the offset between regional fertilization and inhibition on NPP.
X. Yue, N. Unger, and Y. Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11931–11948, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11931-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11931-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate decadal trends in land carbon fluxes and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) during 1982-2011, with a focus on the feedback from biosphere (such as tree growth and phenology). Increases of LAI at peak season accounts for ~25% of the trends in GPP and isoprene emissions at the northern lands. However, phenological change alone does not promote regional carbon uptake and BVOC emissions.
X. Yue, N. Unger, T. F. Keenan, X. Zhang, and C. S. Vogel
Biogeosciences, 12, 4693–4709, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4693-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4693-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We performed model inter-comparison and selected the best model capturing the spatial and temporal variations of observations to predict trends of forest phenology over the past 3 decades. Our results show that phenological trends, which are dominantly driven by temperature changes, are not uniform over the contiguous USA, with a significant spring advance in the east, an autumn delay in the northeast and west, but no evidence of change elsewhere.
X. Yue and N. Unger
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2399–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2399-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2399-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The Yale Interactive terrestrial Biosphere model (YIBs) predicts land carbon fluxes and tree growth based on mature schemes but with special updates in phenology, ozone vegetation damage, and photosynthetic-dependent biogenic volatile organic compounds. Evaluations with data from 145 flux tower sites and multiple satellite products show that the model predicts reasonable magnitude, seasonality, and spatial distribution of land carbon fluxes.
L. Zhang, D. J. Jacob, X. Yue, N. V. Downey, D. A. Wood, and D. Blewitt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5295–5309, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5295-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5295-2014, 2014
Weijie Fu, Xu Yue, Chenguang Tian, Rongbin Xu, and Yuming Guo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2266, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2266, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering could cool Earth by blocking sunlight, but its impacts on extreme droughts are unclear. Our analysis of global climate simulations shows this approach might reduce extreme droughts overall. However, benefits are uneven: poorer nations face far higher drought risks compared to wealthier regions. These disparities stress the urgent need for policymakers to prioritize fairness when evaluating geoengineering strategies.
Nadia K. Colombi, Daniel J. Jacob, Xingpei Ye, Robert M. Yantosca, Kelvin H. Bates, Drew C. Pendergrass, Laura Hyesung Yang, Ke Li, and Hong Liao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1799, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1799, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
Surface ozone pollution in East Asia is among the highest in the world and has risen steadily over the past two decades. Using aircraft observations and a global 3-D chemical transport model, we show that ozone in the lower atmosphere in East Asia has risen in part due to intensified transport from the upper atmosphere. This rising natural background limits the effectiveness of local pollution controls, with major implications for air quality policy.
Yuxin Zheng, Xu Yue, Xiaofei Lu, and Jun Zhu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1515, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1515, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary
Short summary
The sensitivity of gross primary productivity (GPP) to climate varies across regions and ecosystem types. Our study shows that warming enhances GPP in boreal regions but suppresses it in the tropics. Increased precipitation generally promotes GPP but has limited effects on tree species. However, current models tend to overestimate GPP responses to precipitation, resulting in greater GPP variability during drought events.
Yufen Wang, Ke Li, Xi Chen, Zhenjiang Yang, Minglong Tang, Pascoal M. D. Campos, Yang Yang, Xu Yue, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4455–4475, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4455-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4455-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions on high tropospheric ozone levels are not well studied in southern Africa. We combined model simulations with recent observations at the surface and from space to quantify tropospheric ozone and its drivers in southern Africa. Our work focuses on the impact of emissions from different sources at different spatial scales, contributing to a comprehensive understanding of air pollution drivers and their uncertainties in southern Africa.
Ling Kang, Hong Liao, Ke Li, Xu Yue, Yang Yang, and Ye Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3603–3621, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3603-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3603-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Using the model of Global Change and Air Pollution version 2.0, climate change over 2010–2045 under a carbon neutrality scenario is simulated to increase summertime maximum daily 8 h average ozone (O3) levels in eastern China, the North China Plain, and the Yangtze River Delta by 2.3, 4.7, and 3.0 ppbv, respectively. Temperature, radiation, and relative humidity are the key meteorological parameters and net chemical production is the key process in climate-driven O3 increases in eastern China.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda R. Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Xin Lan, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Yonghang Hu, Chenguang Tian, Xu Yue, Yadong Lei, Yang Cao, Rongbin Xu, and Yuming Guo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-414, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-414, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a global dataset of daily fire-sourced PM2.5 concentration at a spatial resolution of 0.25° for 2000–2023, using a chemical transport model driven with two fire emission inventories and a machine learning approach trained with ground measurements from over 9000 sites. The dataset shows significant spatiotemporal variations of fire PM2.5 in the past decades, serving a useful tool for exploring the impacts of fire-related air pollutants on climate, ecosystems, and public health.
Xinyi Zhou, Xu Yue, Chenguang Tian, and Xiaofei Lu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9923–9937, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9923-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With a climate–vegetation–chemistry coupled model, we explore global climatic responses to the ozone–vegetation interactions of the present day. We find strong warming and drying effects due to the ozone-induced inhibition on plant stomatal conductance, especially over polluted regions such as the eastern US and China. These climatic perturbations further enhance surface ozone by decreasing dry deposition but reduce aerosol optical depth by increasing cloudiness and the drought tendency.
Laura Hyesung Yang, Daniel J. Jacob, Ruijun Dang, Yujin J. Oak, Haipeng Lin, Jhoon Kim, Shixian Zhai, Nadia K. Colombi, Drew C. Pendergrass, Ellie Beaudry, Viral Shah, Xu Feng, Robert M. Yantosca, Heesung Chong, Junsung Park, Hanlim Lee, Won-Jin Lee, Soontae Kim, Eunhye Kim, Katherine R. Travis, James H. Crawford, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7027–7039, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7027-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7027-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) provides hourly measurements of NO2. We use the chemical transport model to find how emissions, chemistry, and transport drive the changes in NO2 observed by GEMS at different times of the day. In winter, the chemistry plays a minor role, and high daytime emissions dominate the diurnal variation in NO2, balanced by transport. In summer, emissions, chemistry, and transport play an important role in shaping the diurnal variation in NO2.
Xu Yue, Hao Zhou, Chenguang Tian, Yimian Ma, Yihan Hu, Cheng Gong, Hui Zheng, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4621–4642, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4621-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We develop the interactive Model for Air Pollution and Land Ecosystems (iMAPLE). The model considers the full coupling between carbon and water cycles, dynamic fire emissions, wetland methane emissions, biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, and trait-based ozone vegetation damage. Evaluations show that iMAPLE is a useful tool for the study of the interactions among climate, chemistry, and ecosystems.
Nanhong Xie, Tijian Wang, Xiaodong Xie, Xu Yue, Filippo Giorgi, Qian Zhang, Danyang Ma, Rong Song, Beiyao Xu, Shu Li, Bingliang Zhuang, Mengmeng Li, Min Xie, Natalya Andreeva Kilifarska, Georgi Gadzhev, and Reneta Dimitrova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3259–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3259-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3259-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, we coupled a regional climate chemistry model, RegCM-Chem, with a dynamic vegetation model, YIBs, to create a regional climate–chemistry–ecology model, RegCM-Chem–YIBs. We applied it to simulate climatic, chemical, and ecological parameters in East Asia and fully validated it on a variety of observational data. Results show that RegCM-Chem–YIBs model is a valuable tool for studying the terrestrial carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change on a regional scale.
Amy Christiansen, Loretta J. Mickley, and Lu Hu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4569–4589, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4569-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4569-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we provide an additional constraint on emissions and trends of nitrogen oxides using nitrate wet deposition (NWD) fluxes over the United States and Europe from 1980–2020. We find that NWD measurements constrain total NOx emissions well. We also find evidence of NOx emission overestimates in both domains, but especially over Europe, where NOx emissions are overestimated by a factor of 2. Reducing NOx emissions over Europe improves model representation of ozone at the surface.
Jiachen Cao, Xu Yue, and Mingrui Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3973–3987, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3973-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We implemented two widely used ozone damage schemes into a same regional model. Although the two schemes yielded distinct ozone vegetation damages, they predicted similar feedbacks to surface air temperature and ozone air quality in China. Our results highlighted the significance of ozone pollution control given its detrimental impacts on ecosystem functions, contributions to global warming, and amplifications of ozone pollution through ozone–vegetation coupling.
Xu Feng, Loretta J. Mickley, Michelle L. Bell, Tianjia Liu, Jenny A. Fisher, and Maria Val Martin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2985–3007, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2985-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2985-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
During severe wildfire seasons, smoke can have a significant impact on air quality in Australia. Our study demonstrates that characterization of the smoke plume injection fractions greatly affects estimates of surface smoke PM2.5. Using the plume behavior predicted by the machine learning method leads to the best model agreement with observed surface PM2.5 in key cities across Australia, with smoke PM2.5 accounting for 5 %–52 % of total PM2.5 on average during fire seasons from 2009 to 2020.
Yang Yang, Yang Zhou, Hailong Wang, Mengyun Li, Huimin Li, Pinya Wang, Xu Yue, Ke Li, Jia Zhu, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1177–1191, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1177-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1177-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study reveals that extreme ozone pollution over the North China Plain and Yangtze River Delta is due to the chemical production related to hot and dry conditions, and the regional transport explains the ozone pollution over the Sichuan Basin and Pearl River Delta. The frequency of meteorological conditions of the extreme ozone pollution increases from the past to the future. The sustainable scenario is the optimal path to retaining clean air in China in the future.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Yuan Zhao, Xu Yue, Yang Cao, Jun Zhu, Chenguang Tian, Hao Zhou, Yuwen Chen, Yihan Hu, Weijie Fu, and Xu Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7823–7838, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We project the future changes of dust emissions and loading using an ensemble of model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 under four scenarios. We find increased dust emissions and loading in North Africa, due to increased drought and strengthened surface wind, and decreased dust loading over Asia, following enhanced precipitation. Such a spatial pattern remains similar, though the regional intensity varies among different scenarios.
Ruijun Dang, Daniel J. Jacob, Viral Shah, Sebastian D. Eastham, Thibaud M. Fritz, Loretta J. Mickley, Tianjia Liu, Yi Wang, and Jun Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6271–6284, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6271-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6271-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use the GEOS-Chem model to better understand the magnitude and trend in free tropospheric NO2 over the contiguous US. Model underestimate of background NO2 is largely corrected by considering aerosol nitrate photolysis. Increase in aircraft emissions affects satellite retrievals by altering the NO2 shape factor, and this effect is expected to increase in future. We show the importance of properly accounting for the free tropospheric background in interpreting NO2 observations from space.
Yimian Ma, Xu Yue, Stephen Sitch, Nadine Unger, Johan Uddling, Lina M. Mercado, Cheng Gong, Zhaozhong Feng, Huiyi Yang, Hao Zhou, Chenguang Tian, Yang Cao, Yadong Lei, Alexander W. Cheesman, Yansen Xu, and Maria Carolina Duran Rojas
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2261–2276, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2261-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Plants have been found to respond differently to O3, but the variations in the sensitivities have rarely been explained nor fully implemented in large-scale assessment. This study proposes a new O3 damage scheme with leaf mass per area to unify varied sensitivities for all plant species. Our assessment reveals an O3-induced reduction of 4.8 % in global GPP, with the highest reduction of >10 % for cropland, suggesting an emerging risk of crop yield loss under the threat of O3 pollution.
Nadia K. Colombi, Daniel J. Jacob, Laura Hyesung Yang, Shixian Zhai, Viral Shah, Stuart K. Grange, Robert M. Yantosca, Soontae Kim, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4031–4044, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4031-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Surface ozone, detrimental to human and ecosystem health, is very high and increasing in South Korea. Using a global model of the atmosphere, we found that emissions from South Korea and China contribute equally to the high ozone observed. We found that in the absence of all anthropogenic emissions over East Asia, ozone is still very high, implying that the air quality standard in South Korea is not practically achievable unless this background external to East Asia can be decreased.
Giacomo Grassi, Clemens Schwingshackl, Thomas Gasser, Richard A. Houghton, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Alessandro Cescatti, Philippe Ciais, Sandro Federici, Pierre Friedlingstein, Werner A. Kurz, Maria J. Sanz Sanchez, Raúl Abad Viñas, Ramdane Alkama, Selma Bultan, Guido Ceccherini, Stefanie Falk, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Anu Korosuo, Joana Melo, Matthew J. McGrath, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Benjamin Poulter, Anna A. Romanovskaya, Simone Rossi, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1093–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1093-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1093-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Striking differences exist in estimates of land-use CO2 fluxes between the national greenhouse gas inventories and the IPCC assessment reports. These differences hamper an accurate assessment of the collective progress under the Paris Agreement. By implementing an approach that conceptually reconciles land-use CO2 flux from national inventories and the global models used by the IPCC, our study is an important step forward for increasing confidence in land-use CO2 flux estimates.
Laura Hyesung Yang, Daniel J. Jacob, Nadia K. Colombi, Shixian Zhai, Kelvin H. Bates, Viral Shah, Ellie Beaudry, Robert M. Yantosca, Haipeng Lin, Jared F. Brewer, Heesung Chong, Katherine R. Travis, James H. Crawford, Lok N. Lamsal, Ja-Ho Koo, and Jhoon Kim
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2465–2481, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2465-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A geostationary satellite can now provide hourly NO2 vertical columns, and obtaining the NO2 vertical columns from space relies on NO2 vertical distribution from the chemical transport model (CTM). In this work, we update the CTM to better represent the chemistry environment so that the CTM can accurately provide NO2 vertical distribution. We also find that the changes in NO2 vertical distribution driven by a change in mixing depth play an important role in the NO2 column's diurnal variation.
Huibin Dai, Hong Liao, Ke Li, Xu Yue, Yang Yang, Jia Zhu, Jianbing Jin, Baojie Li, and Xingwen Jiang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 23–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-23-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-23-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We apply the 3-D global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to simulate co-polluted days by O3 and PM2.5 (O3–PM2.5PDs) in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei in 2013–2020 and investigate the chemical and physical characteristics of O3–PM2.5PDs by composited analyses of such days that are captured by both the observations and the model. We report for the first time the unique features in vertical distributions of aerosols during O3–PM2.5PDs and the physical and chemical characteristics of O3–PM2.5PDs.
Randall V. Martin, Sebastian D. Eastham, Liam Bindle, Elizabeth W. Lundgren, Thomas L. Clune, Christoph A. Keller, William Downs, Dandan Zhang, Robert A. Lucchesi, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Robert M. Yantosca, Yanshun Li, Lucas Estrada, William M. Putman, Benjamin M. Auer, Atanas L. Trayanov, Steven Pawson, and Daniel J. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8731–8748, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8731-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8731-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric chemistry models must be able to operate both online as components of Earth system models and offline as standalone models. The widely used GEOS-Chem model operates both online and offline, but the classic offline version is not suitable for massively parallel simulations. We describe a new generation of the offline high-performance GEOS-Chem (GCHP) that enables high-resolution simulations on thousands of cores, including on the cloud, with improved access, performance, and accuracy.
Amy Christiansen, Loretta J. Mickley, Junhua Liu, Luke D. Oman, and Lu Hu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14751–14782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14751-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14751-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding tropospheric ozone trends is crucial for accurate predictions of future air quality and climate, but drivers of trends are not well understood. We analyze global tropospheric ozone trends since 1980 using ozonesonde and surface measurements, and we evaluate two models for their ability to reproduce trends. We find observational evidence of increasing tropospheric ozone, but models underestimate these increases. This hinders our ability to estimate ozone radiative forcing.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Chenguang Tian, Xu Yue, Jun Zhu, Hong Liao, Yang Yang, Yadong Lei, Xinyi Zhou, Hao Zhou, Yimian Ma, and Yang Cao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12353–12366, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12353-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12353-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the impacts of fire aerosols on climate through direct, indirect, and albedo effects. In atmosphere-only simulations, we find global fire aerosols cause surface cooling and rainfall inhibition over many land regions. These fast atmospheric perturbations further lead to a reduction in regional leaf area index and lightning activities. By considering the feedback of fire aerosols on humidity, lightning, and leaf area index, we predict a slight reduction in fire emissions.
Jiyuan Gao, Yang Yang, Hailong Wang, Pinya Wang, Huimin Li, Mengyun Li, Lili Ren, Xu Yue, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7131–7142, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7131-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
China has been implementing a sequence of policies for clean air since the year 2013. The aerosol decline produced a 0.09 ± 0.10°C warming during 2013–2017 estimated in this study, and the increase in ozone in the lower troposphere during this time period accelerated the warming, leading to a total 0.16 ± 0.15°C temperature increase in eastern China. Residential emission reductions led to a cooling effect because of a substantial decrease in light-absorbing aerosols.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Hao Zhou, Xu Yue, Yadong Lei, Chenguang Tian, Jun Zhu, Yimian Ma, Yang Cao, Xixi Yin, and Zhiding Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 693–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-693-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-693-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols enhance plant photosynthesis by increasing diffuse radiation. In this study, we found that the aerosol impacts are quite different for varied species. Scattering aerosols such as sulfate and organic carbon promote photosynthesis while absorbing aerosols such as black carbon have negative impacts. Earth system models should consider the impacts of cloud and aerosol species on terrestrial ecosystems so as to better predict carbon cycles under different emission scenarios.
Lee T. Murray, Eric M. Leibensperger, Clara Orbe, Loretta J. Mickley, and Melissa Sulprizio
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5789–5823, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5789-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5789-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Chemical-transport models are tools used to study air pollution and inform public policy. However, they are limited by the availability of archived meteorology. Here, we describe how the GEOS-Chem chemical-transport model may now be driven by meteorology archived from a state-of-the-art general circulation model for past and future climates, allowing it to be used to explore the impact of climate change on air pollution and atmospheric composition.
Yadong Lei, Xu Yue, Hong Liao, Lin Zhang, Yang Yang, Hao Zhou, Chenguang Tian, Cheng Gong, Yimian Ma, Lan Gao, and Yang Cao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11531–11543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11531-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11531-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first estimate of ozone enhancement by fire emissions through ozone–vegetation interactions using a fully coupled chemistry–vegetation model (GC-YIBs). In fire-prone areas, fire-induced ozone causes a positive feedback to surface ozone mainly because of the inhibition effects on stomatal conductance.
Jasdeep Singh Anand, Alessandro Anav, Marcello Vitale, Daniele Peano, Nadine Unger, Xu Yue, Robert J. Parker, and Hartmut Boesch
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-125, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-125, 2021
Publication in BG not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone damages plants, which prevents them from absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere. This poses a potential threat to preventing dangerous climate change. In this work, satellite observations of forest cover, ozone, climate, and growing season are combined with an empirical model to estimate the carbon lost due to ozone exposure over Europe. The estimated carbon losses agree well with prior modelled estimates, showing for the first time that satellites can be used to better understand this effect.
Xiao Lu, Daniel J. Jacob, Yuzhong Zhang, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Lu Shen, Zhen Qu, Tia R. Scarpelli, Hannah Nesser, Robert M. Yantosca, Jianxiong Sheng, Arlyn Andrews, Robert J. Parker, Hartmut Boesch, A. Anthony Bloom, and Shuang Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4637–4657, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4637-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4637-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use an analytical solution to the Bayesian inverse problem to quantitatively compare and combine the information from satellite and in situ observations, and to estimate global methane budget and their trends over the 2010–2017 period. We find that satellite and in situ observations are to a large extent complementary in the inversion for estimating global methane budget, and reveal consistent corrections of regional anthropogenic and wetland methane emissions relative to the prior inventory.
Bo Zhang, Hongyu Liu, James H. Crawford, Gao Chen, T. Duncan Fairlie, Scott Chambers, Chang-Hee Kang, Alastair G. Williams, Kai Zhang, David B. Considine, Melissa P. Sulprizio, and Robert M. Yantosca
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1861–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1861-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1861-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate atmospheric 222Rn using the GEOS-Chem model to improve understanding of 222Rn emissions and characterize convective transport in the model. We demonstrate the potential of a customized global 222Rn emission scenario to improve simulated surface 222Rn concentrations and seasonality. We assess convective transport using observed 222Rn vertical profiles. Results have important implications for using chemical transport models to interpret the transport of trace gases and aerosols.
Yang Li, Loretta J. Mickley, and Jed O. Kaplan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 57–68, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-57-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-57-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models predict a shift toward warmer, drier environments in southwestern North America. Under future climate, the two main drivers of dust trends play opposing roles: (1) CO2 fertilization enhances vegetation and, in turn, decreases dust, and (2) increasing land use enhances dust emissions from northern Mexico. In the worst-case scenario, elevated dust concentrations spread widely over the domain by 2100 in spring, suggesting a large climate penalty on air quality and human health.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Yang Li, Loretta J. Mickley, Pengfei Liu, and Jed O. Kaplan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8827–8838, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8827-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8827-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Using a coupled vegetation–fire–climate modeling framework, we show a northward shift in forests and increased lightning fire activity in northern US states, including Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. Our findings suggest a large climate penalty on ecosystem, air quality, visibility, and human health in a region valued for its national forests and parks. The fine-scale smoke PM predictions provided in this study should prove useful to human health and environmental assessments.
Haipeng Lin, Xu Feng, Tzung-May Fu, Heng Tian, Yaping Ma, Lijuan Zhang, Daniel J. Jacob, Robert M. Yantosca, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Elizabeth W. Lundgren, Jiawei Zhuang, Qiang Zhang, Xiao Lu, Lin Zhang, Lu Shen, Jianping Guo, Sebastian D. Eastham, and Christoph A. Keller
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3241–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3241-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3241-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Online coupling of meteorology and chemistry models often presents maintenance issues with hard-wired coding. We present WRF-GC, an one-way online coupling of the WRF meteorological model and GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry model for regional atmospheric chemistry and air quality modeling. Our coupling structure allows future versions of either parent model to be immediately integrated into WRF-GC. The WRF-GC model was able to well reproduce regional PM2.5 with greater computational efficiency.
Cheng Gong, Yadong Lei, Yimian Ma, Xu Yue, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3841–3857, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3841-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3841-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate ozone–vegetation feedback using a fully coupled chemistry–carbon–climate global model (ModelE2-YIBs). Ozone damage to photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, and isoprene emissions parameterized by different schemes and sensitivities is jointly considered. In general, surface ozone concentrations are increased due to ozone–vegetation interactions, especially over the regions with a high ambient ozone level such as the eastern US, eastern China, and western Europe.
Yadong Lei, Xu Yue, Hong Liao, Cheng Gong, and Lin Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1137–1153, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1137-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1137-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We coupled a dynamic vegetation model YIBs with the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem to develop a new tool for studying interactions between atmospheric chemistry and biosphere. Within this framework, leaf area index and stomatal conductance are predicted for chemical simulations. In turn, surface ozone causes negative impacts to plant growth and the consequent dry deposition. Such interactions are important for air pollution prediction but ignored in most of current chemical models.
Xu Yue, Hong Liao, Huijun Wang, Tianyi Zhang, Nadine Unger, Stephen Sitch, Zhaozhong Feng, and Jia Yang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2353–2366, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2353-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2353-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We explore ecosystem responses in China to 1.5 °C global warming under stabilized versus transient pathways. Remarkably, GPP shows 30 % higher enhancement in the stabilized than the transient pathway because of the lower ozone (smaller damages to photosynthesis) and fewer aerosols (higher light availability) in the former pathway. Our analyses suggest that an associated reduction of CO2 and pollution emissions brings more benefits to ecosystems in China via 1.5 °C global warming.
Rachel F. Silvern, Daniel J. Jacob, Loretta J. Mickley, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Katherine R. Travis, Eloise A. Marais, Ronald C. Cohen, Joshua L. Laughner, Sungyeon Choi, Joanna Joiner, and Lok N. Lamsal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8863–8878, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8863-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8863-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The US EPA reports a steady decrease in nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from fuel combustion over the 2005–2017 period, while satellite observations show a leveling off after 2009, suggesting emission reductions and related air quality gains have halted. We show the sustained decrease in NOx emissions is in fact consistent with observed trends in surface NO2 and ozone concentrations and that the flattening of the satellite trend reflects a growing influence from the non-anthropogenic background.
Lu Shen, Daniel J. Jacob, Loretta J. Mickley, Yuxuan Wang, and Qiang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17489–17496, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17489-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17489-2018, 2018
Sebastian D. Eastham, Michael S. Long, Christoph A. Keller, Elizabeth Lundgren, Robert M. Yantosca, Jiawei Zhuang, Chi Li, Colin J. Lee, Matthew Yannetti, Benjamin M. Auer, Thomas L. Clune, Jules Kouatchou, William M. Putman, Matthew A. Thompson, Atanas L. Trayanov, Andrea M. Molod, Randall V. Martin, and Daniel J. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2941–2953, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2941-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2941-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Global atmospheric chemical transport models are crucial tools in atmospheric science, used to address problems ranging from climate change to acid rain. GEOS-Chem High Performance (GCHP) is a new implementation of the widely used GEOS-Chem model, designed for massively parallel architectures. GCHP v11-02c is shown to be highly scalable from 6 to over 500 cores, enabling the routine simulation of global atmospheric chemistry from the surface to the stratopause at resolutions of ~50 km or finer.
Danny M. Leung, Amos P. K. Tai, Loretta J. Mickley, Jonathan M. Moch, Aaron van Donkelaar, Lu Shen, and Randall V. Martin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6733–6748, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6733-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6733-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates how large-scale weather systems control fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality in China. We show that winter monsoons, onshore winds and frontal rains can drive daily PM2.5 variability in different regions of China. We further project future PM2.5 concentration change by 2050s due to climate change, and verify that climate change has little benefit on future PM2.5 in Beijing, implying cutting down emissions is necessary to mitigate pollutions in megacities of China.
Jingqiu Mao, Annmarie Carlton, Ronald C. Cohen, William H. Brune, Steven S. Brown, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jose L. Jimenez, Havala O. T. Pye, Nga Lee Ng, Lu Xu, V. Faye McNeill, Kostas Tsigaridis, Brian C. McDonald, Carsten Warneke, Alex Guenther, Matthew J. Alvarado, Joost de Gouw, Loretta J. Mickley, Eric M. Leibensperger, Rohit Mathur, Christopher G. Nolte, Robert W. Portmann, Nadine Unger, Mika Tosca, and Larry W. Horowitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2615–2651, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2615-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is aimed at discussing progress in evaluating, diagnosing, and improving air quality and climate modeling using comparisons to SAS observations as a guide to thinking about improvements to mechanisms and parameterizations in models.
Xu Yue, Susanna Strada, Nadine Unger, and Aihui Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13699–13719, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13699-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13699-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change will significantly increase wildfire emissions in boreal North America by the midcentury, leading to increased surface ozone and atmospheric aerosols. These air pollutants can affect vegetation photosynthesis through stomatal uptake (for ozone) and radiative and climatic perturbations (for aerosols). Using a carbon–chemistry–climate model, we estimate trivial ozone vegetation damages but significant aerosol-induced reduction in ecosystem productivity by the 2050s.
Daniel H. Cusworth, Loretta J. Mickley, Eric M. Leibensperger, and Michael J. Iacono
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13559–13572, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13559-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13559-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Since 1990, light-scattering pollution known as aerosols have declined as a result of tightening US air quality regulations. Our study finds that US surface solar radiation has increased simultaneously. We establish a link between aerosols and radiation through physical and statistical models. We find the strongest relationship between aerosols, radiation, and climate at a site in the Midwest. Our work underscores the importance of regional pollution on climate in the US and abroad.
Xu Yue, Nadine Unger, Kandice Harper, Xiangao Xia, Hong Liao, Tong Zhu, Jingfeng Xiao, Zhaozhong Feng, and Jing Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6073–6089, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6073-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6073-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
While it is widely recognized that air pollutants adversely affect human health and climate change, their impacts on the regional carbon balance are less well understood. We apply an Earth system model to quantify the combined effects of ozone and aerosol particles on net primary production in China. Ozone vegetation damage dominates over the aerosol effects, leading to a substantial net suppression of land carbon uptake in the present and future worlds.
Lu Shen, Loretta J. Mickley, and Lee T. Murray
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4355–4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4355-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4355-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new method to characterize the influence of atmospheric circulation on surface PM2.5 concentrations. Applying our statistical model to climate projections, we find a strong influence of 2000–2050 climate change on PM2.5 air quality in the United States. We find that current atmospheric chemistry models may underestimate the strong positive sensitivity of PM2.5 to temperature in the eastern United States in summer, and so may underestimate PM2.5 changes in a warmer climate.
Junhua Liu, Jose M. Rodriguez, Stephen D. Steenrod, Anne R. Douglass, Jennifer A. Logan, Mark A. Olsen, Krzysztof Wargan, and Jerald R. Ziemke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3279–3299, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3279-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3279-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the relative contribution of processes controlling the interannual variability (IAV) of tropospheric ozone over the southern hemispheric tropospheric ozone maximum (SHTOM) with GMI chemistry transport model. We use various GMI tracer diagnostics, including a StratO3 tracer to quantify the stratospheric impact, and tagged CO tracers to track the emission sources. Our result shows that the stratospheric contribution is the most important factor driving the IAV of upper tropospheric O3.
Mehliyar Sadiq, Amos P. K. Tai, Danica Lombardozzi, and Maria Val Martin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3055–3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3055-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3055-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Surface ozone harms vegetation, which can influence not only climate but also ozone air quality itself. We implement a scheme for ozone damage on vegetation into an Earth system model, so that for the first time simulated vegetation and ozone can coevolve in a fully coupled simulation. With ozone–vegetation coupling, simulated ozone is found to be significantly higher by up to 6 ppbv. Reduced dry deposition and enhanced isoprene emission contribute to most of these increases.
Tomás Sherwen, Mat J. Evans, Lucy J. Carpenter, Johan A. Schmidt, and Loretta J. Mickley
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1557–1569, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1557-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1557-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We model pre-industrial to present day changes using the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model with halogens (Cl, Br, I). The model better captures pre-industrial O3 observations with halogens included. Halogens buffer the tropospheric forcing of O3 (RFTO3) from pre-industrial to present day, reducing RFTO3 by 0.087 Wm−2. This reduction is greater than that from halogens on stratospheric O3 (−0.05 Wm−2). This suggests that models that do not include halogens will overestimate RFTO3by ~ 25%.
Xu Yue and Nadine Unger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1329–1342, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1329-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1329-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We study aerosol effects on net primary productivity (NPP) in China through perturbations in diffuse and direct radiation. Regional NPP responses are diverse, depending on local aerosol optical depth (AOD) and cloud amount. Two AOD threshold maps are derived to determine the potential for aerosol diffuse fertilization effects. The net impact of aerosol pollution is limited in China due to dense cloud cover, as well as the offset between regional fertilization and inhibition on NPP.
Katherine R. Travis, Daniel J. Jacob, Jenny A. Fisher, Patrick S. Kim, Eloise A. Marais, Lei Zhu, Karen Yu, Christopher C. Miller, Robert M. Yantosca, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Anne M. Thompson, Paul O. Wennberg, John D. Crounse, Jason M. St. Clair, Ronald C. Cohen, Joshua L. Laughner, Jack E. Dibb, Samuel R. Hall, Kirk Ullmann, Glenn M. Wolfe, Illana B. Pollack, Jeff Peischl, Jonathan A. Neuman, and Xianliang Zhou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13561–13577, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13561-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13561-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Ground-level ozone pollution in the Southeast US involves complex chemistry driven by anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and biogenic emissions of isoprene. We find that US NOx emissions are overestimated nationally by as much as 50 % and that reducing model emissions by this amount results in good agreement with SEAC4RS aircraft measurements in August and September 2013. Observations of nitrate wet deposition fluxes and satellite NO2 columns further support this result.
Lei Zhu, Daniel J. Jacob, Patrick S. Kim, Jenny A. Fisher, Karen Yu, Katherine R. Travis, Loretta J. Mickley, Robert M. Yantosca, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Isabelle De Smedt, Gonzalo González Abad, Kelly Chance, Can Li, Richard Ferrare, Alan Fried, Johnathan W. Hair, Thomas F. Hanisco, Dirk Richter, Amy Jo Scarino, James Walega, Petter Weibring, and Glenn M. Wolfe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13477–13490, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13477-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13477-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
HCHO column data are widely used as a proxy for VOCs emissions, but validation of the data has been extremely limited. We use accurate aircraft observations to validate and intercompare 6 HCHO retrievals with GEOS-Chem as the intercomparison platform. Retrievals are interconsistent in spatial variability over the SE US and in daily variability, but are biased low by 20–51 %. Our work supports the use of HCHO column as a quantitative proxy for isoprene emission after correction of the low bias.
Simone Tilmes, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Louisa K. Emmons, Doug E. Kinnison, Dan Marsh, Rolando R. Garcia, Anne K. Smith, Ryan R. Neely, Andrew Conley, Francis Vitt, Maria Val Martin, Hiroshi Tanimoto, Isobel Simpson, Don R. Blake, and Nicola Blake
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1853–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1853-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The state of the art Community Earth System Model, CESM1 CAM4-chem has been used to perform reference and sensitivity simulations as part of the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Specifics of the model and details regarding the setup of the simulations are described. In additions, the main behavior of the model, including selected chemical species have been evaluated with climatological datasets. This paper is therefore a references for studies that use the provided model results.
Jenny A. Fisher, Daniel J. Jacob, Katherine R. Travis, Patrick S. Kim, Eloise A. Marais, Christopher Chan Miller, Karen Yu, Lei Zhu, Robert M. Yantosca, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Jingqiu Mao, Paul O. Wennberg, John D. Crounse, Alex P. Teng, Tran B. Nguyen, Jason M. St. Clair, Ronald C. Cohen, Paul Romer, Benjamin A. Nault, Paul J. Wooldridge, Jose L. Jimenez, Pedro Campuzano-Jost, Douglas A. Day, Weiwei Hu, Paul B. Shepson, Fulizi Xiong, Donald R. Blake, Allen H. Goldstein, Pawel K. Misztal, Thomas F. Hanisco, Glenn M. Wolfe, Thomas B. Ryerson, Armin Wisthaler, and Tomas Mikoviny
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 5969–5991, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5969-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5969-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We use new airborne and ground-based observations from two summer 2013 campaigns in the southeastern US, interpreted with a chemical transport model, to understand the impact of isoprene and monoterpene chemistry on the atmospheric NOx budget via production of organic nitrates (RONO2). We find that a diversity of species contribute to observed RONO2. Our work implies that the NOx sink to RONO2 production is only sensitive to NOx emissions in regions where they are already low.
Hongyu Liu, David B. Considine, Larry W. Horowitz, James H. Crawford, Jose M. Rodriguez, Susan E. Strahan, Megan R. Damon, Stephen D. Steenrod, Xiaojing Xu, Jules Kouatchou, Claire Carouge, and Robert M. Yantosca
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4641–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4641-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4641-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the utility of cosmogenic beryllium-7, a natural aerosol tracer, for evaluating cross-tropopause transport in global models. We show that model excessive cross-tropopause transport of beryllium-7 corresponds to overestimated stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone. We conclude that the observational constraints for beryllium-7 and observed beryllium-7 total deposition fluxes can be used routinely as a first-order assessment of cross-tropopause transport in global models.
Karen Yu, Daniel J. Jacob, Jenny A. Fisher, Patrick S. Kim, Eloise A. Marais, Christopher C. Miller, Katherine R. Travis, Lei Zhu, Robert M. Yantosca, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Ron C. Cohen, Jack E. Dibb, Alan Fried, Tomas Mikoviny, Thomas B. Ryerson, Paul O. Wennberg, and Armin Wisthaler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4369–4378, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4369-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4369-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Increasing the spatial resolution of a chemical transport model may improve simulations but can be computationally expensive. Using observations from the SEAC4RS aircraft campaign, we find that at higher spatial resolutions, models are better able to simulate the chemical pathways of ozone precursors, but the overall effect on regional mean concentrations is small. This implies that for continental boundary layer applications, coarse resolution models are adequate.
R. Paugam, M. Wooster, S. Freitas, and M. Val Martin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 907–925, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-907-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-907-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Landscape fire plume height controls fire emissions release in the atmosphere, in particular their transport that may also affect the longevity, chemical conversion, and fate of the plumes chemical constituents. Here, we review how such landscape-scale fire smoke plume injection heights are represented in large-scale atmospheric transport models aiming to represent the impacts of wildfire emissions on component of the Earth system.
X. Yue, N. Unger, and Y. Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11931–11948, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11931-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11931-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate decadal trends in land carbon fluxes and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) during 1982-2011, with a focus on the feedback from biosphere (such as tree growth and phenology). Increases of LAI at peak season accounts for ~25% of the trends in GPP and isoprene emissions at the northern lands. However, phenological change alone does not promote regional carbon uptake and BVOC emissions.
L. Shen, L. J. Mickley, and A. P. K. Tai
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10925–10938, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10925-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10925-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we have examined the effect of polar jet and Bermuda High on ozone air quality in the eastern United States. In the Midwest and northeast, the poleward shift of jet wind leads to reduced polar jet frequency, resulting in increased ozone there. In the southeast, the influence of Bermuda High on ozone variability depends on the location of its west edge. Westward movement increases the ozone only when the JJA Bermuda High west edge is located west of 85.4°W.
P. S. Kim, D. J. Jacob, J. A. Fisher, K. Travis, K. Yu, L. Zhu, R. M. Yantosca, M. P. Sulprizio, J. L. Jimenez, P. Campuzano-Jost, K. D. Froyd, J. Liao, J. W. Hair, M. A. Fenn, C. F. Butler, N. L. Wagner, T. D. Gordon, A. Welti, P. O. Wennberg, J. D. Crounse, J. M. St. Clair, A. P. Teng, D. B. Millet, J. P. Schwarz, M. Z. Markovic, and A. E. Perring
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10411–10433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10411-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10411-2015, 2015
X. Yue, N. Unger, T. F. Keenan, X. Zhang, and C. S. Vogel
Biogeosciences, 12, 4693–4709, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4693-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4693-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We performed model inter-comparison and selected the best model capturing the spatial and temporal variations of observations to predict trends of forest phenology over the past 3 decades. Our results show that phenological trends, which are dominantly driven by temperature changes, are not uniform over the contiguous USA, with a significant spring advance in the east, an autumn delay in the northeast and west, but no evidence of change elsewhere.
X. Yue and N. Unger
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2399–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2399-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2399-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The Yale Interactive terrestrial Biosphere model (YIBs) predicts land carbon fluxes and tree growth based on mature schemes but with special updates in phenology, ozone vegetation damage, and photosynthetic-dependent biogenic volatile organic compounds. Evaluations with data from 145 flux tower sites and multiple satellite products show that the model predicts reasonable magnitude, seasonality, and spatial distribution of land carbon fluxes.
P. Achakulwisut, L. J. Mickley, L. T. Murray, A. P. K. Tai, J. O. Kaplan, and B. Alexander
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7977–7998, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7977-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7977-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The atmosphere’s oxidative capacity determines the lifetime of many trace gases important to climate, chemistry, and human health. Yet uncertainties remain about its past variations, its controlling factors, and the radiative forcing of short-lived species it influences. To reduce these uncertainties, we must better quantify the natural emissions and chemical reaction mechanisms of organic compounds in the atmosphere, which play a role in governing the oxidative capacity.
M. S. Long, R. Yantosca, J. E. Nielsen, C. A. Keller, A. da Silva, M. P. Sulprizio, S. Pawson, and D. J. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 595–602, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-595-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-595-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents results from the modularization of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, and its coupling as the chemical operator within the NASA-GMAO GEOS-5 Earth system model (ESM). The key findings are that chemistry within the modular GEOS-Chem system shows consistent, high strong-scaling properties across the range of distributed processors, transport is the limiting component prohibiting efficient scalability, and GEOS-Chem is able to generate suitable chemical results in an ESM.
M. Val Martin, C. L. Heald, J.-F. Lamarque, S. Tilmes, L. K. Emmons, and B. A. Schichtel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2805–2823, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2805-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2805-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present for the first time the relative effect of climate, emissions, and land use change on ozone and PM25 over the United States, focusing on the national parks. Air quality in 2050 will likely be dominated by emission patterns, but climate and land use changes alone can lead to a substantial increase in air pollution over most of the US, with important implications for O3 air quality, visibility and ecosystem health degradation in the national parks.
C. A. Keller, M. S. Long, R. M. Yantosca, A. M. Da Silva, S. Pawson, and D. J. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1409–1417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1409-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1409-2014, 2014
L. Zhang, D. J. Jacob, X. Yue, N. V. Downey, D. A. Wood, and D. Blewitt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5295–5309, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5295-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5295-2014, 2014
L. T. Murray, L. J. Mickley, J. O. Kaplan, E. D. Sofen, M. Pfeiffer, and B. Alexander
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3589–3622, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3589-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3589-2014, 2014
E. V. Fischer, D. J. Jacob, R. M. Yantosca, M. P. Sulprizio, D. B. Millet, J. Mao, F. Paulot, H. B. Singh, A. Roiger, L. Ries, R.W. Talbot, K. Dzepina, and S. Pandey Deolal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 2679–2698, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2679-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2679-2014, 2014
H. Jiang, H. Liao, H. O. T. Pye, S. Wu, L. J. Mickley, J. H. Seinfeld, and X. Y. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7937–7960, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7937-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7937-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Gases | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Chemistry (chemical composition and reactions)
Tracking daily NOx emissions from an urban agglomeration based on TROPOMI NO2 and a local ensemble transform Kalman filter
Evaluation of O3, H2O, CO, and NOy climatologies simulated by four global models in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere with IAGOS measurements
Source contribution to ozone pollution during June 2021 fire events in Arizona: insights from WRF-Chem-tagged O3 and CO
High-resolution mapping of on-road vehicle emissions with real-time traffic datasets based on big data
Sensitivity of climate–chemistry model simulated atmospheric composition to the application of an inverse relationship between NOx emission and lightning flash frequency
Regional and sectoral contributions of NOx and reactive carbon emission sources to global trends in tropospheric ozone during the 2000–2018 period
Underappreciated contributions of biogenic volatile organic compounds from urban green spaces to ozone pollution
Chemistry–climate feedback of atmospheric methane in a methane-emission-flux-driven chemistry–climate model
Surface ozone trend variability across the United States and the impact of heat waves (1990–2023)
Sensitivity of climate effects of hydrogen to leakage size, location, and chemical background
Evaluating tropospheric nitrogen dioxide in UKCA using OMI satellite retrievals over south and east Asia
Technical note: A comparative study of chemistry schemes for volcanic sulfur dioxide in Lagrangian transport simulations – a case study of the 2019 Raikoke eruption
Revisiting the high tropospheric ozone over southern Africa: role of biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions
Monoterpene oxidation pathways initiated by acyl peroxy radical addition
Local and transboundary contributions to NOy loadings across East Asia using CMAQ-ISAM and a GEMS-informed emission inventory during the winter–spring transition
Estimating the variability in NOx emissions from Wuhan with TROPOMI NO2 data during 2018 to 2023
Enhanced understanding of atmospheric blocking modulation on ozone dynamics within a high-resolution Earth system model
Natural emissions of VOC and NOx over Africa constrained by TROPOMI HCHO and NO2 data using the MAGRITTEv1.1 model
Contributions of lightning to long-term trends and inter-annual variability in global atmospheric chemistry constrained by Schumann Resonance observations
Simulated photochemical response to observational constraints on aerosol vertical distribution over North China
Impacts of wildfire smoke aerosols on near-surface ozone photochemistry
Anthropogenic emission controls reduce summertime ozone–temperature sensitivity in the United States
Investigating the response of China's surface ozone concentration to the future changes of multiple factors
Assessing the relative impacts of satellite ozone and its precursor observations to improve global tropospheric ozone analysis using multiple chemical reanalysis systems
Evaluating present-day and future impacts of agricultural ammonia emissions on atmospheric chemistry and climate
Air-pollution-satellite-based CO2 emission inversion: system evaluation, sensitivity analysis, and future research direction
The impact of sea spray aerosol on photochemical ozone formation over eastern China: heterogeneous reaction of chlorine particles and radiative effect
Insights into ozone pollution control in urban areas by decoupling meteorological factors based on machine learning
Improving the computation efficiency of a source-oriented chemical mechanism for the simultaneous source apportionment of ozone and secondary particulate pollutants
Quantification of regional net CO2 flux errors in the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 model intercomparison project (MIP) ensemble using airborne measurements
Reactive nitrogen in and around the northeastern and mid-Atlantic US: sources, sinks, and connections with ozone
Preindustrial-to-present-day changes in atmospheric carbon monoxide: agreement and gaps between ice archives and global model reconstructions
Investigating processes influencing simulation of local Arctic wintertime anthropogenic pollution in Fairbanks, Alaska, during ALPACA-2022
Urban ozone formation and sensitivities to volatile chemical products, cooking emissions, and NOx upwind of and within two Los Angeles Basin cities
Causes of growing middle-to-upper tropospheric ozone over the northwest Pacific region
Impact of introducing electric vehicles on ground-level O3 and PM2.5 in the Greater Tokyo Area: yearly trends and the importance of changes in the urban heat island effect
Modelling Arctic Lower Tropospheric Ozone: processes controlling seasonal variations
Climate-driven biogenic emissions alleviate the impact of man-made emission reduction on O3 control in Pearl River Delta region, southern China
South Asia ammonia emission inversion through assimilating IASI observations
Constraining the budget of NOx and VOCs at a remote Tropical island using multi-platform observations and WRF-Chem model simulations
A CO2–Δ14CO2 inversion setup for estimating European fossil CO2 emissions
Maximum ozone concentrations in the southwestern US and Texas: implications of the growing predominance of the background contribution
Derivation of atmospheric reaction mechanisms for volatile organic compounds by the SAPRC mechanism generation system (MechGen)
Comparative ozone production sensitivity to NOx and VOCs in Quito, Ecuador and Santiago, Chile: implications for control strategies in times of climate action
Seasonal, regional, and vertical characteristics of high-carbon-monoxide plumes along with their associated ozone anomalies, as seen by IAGOS between 2002 and 2019
Tropospheric ozone trends and attributions over East and Southeast Asia in 1995–2019: An integrated assessment using statistical methods, machine learning models, and multiple chemical transport models
The potential of drone observations to improve air quality predictions by 4D-Var
Process analysis of elevated concentrations of organic acids at Whiteface Mountain, New York
Ozone source attribution in polluted European areas during summer 2017 as simulated with MECO(n)
Characterization of reactive nitrogen in the global upper troposphere using recent and historical commercial and research aircraft campaigns and GEOS-Chem
Yawen Kong, Bo Zheng, and Yuxi Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5959–5976, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5959-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5959-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Current high-resolution satellite remote sensing technologies provide a unique opportunity to derive timely high-resolution emission data. We developed an emission inversion system to assimilate satellite NO2 data to obtain daily kilometer-scale NOx emission inventories. Our results enhance inventory accuracy, allowing us to capture the effects of pollution control policies on daily emissions (e.g., during COVID-19 lockdowns) and improve fine-scale air quality modeling.
Yann Cohen, Didier Hauglustaine, Nicolas Bellouin, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Sigrun Matthes, Agnieszka Skowron, Robin Thor, Ulrich Bundke, Andreas Petzold, Susanne Rohs, Valérie Thouret, Andreas Zahn, and Helmut Ziereis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5793–5836, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5793-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5793-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The chemical composition of the atmosphere near the tropopause is a key parameter for evaluating the climate impact of subsonic aviation pollutants. This study uses in situ data collected aboard passenger aircraft to assess the ability of four chemistry–climate models to reproduce (bi-)decadal climatologies of ozone, carbon monoxide, water vapour, and reactive nitrogen in this region. The models reproduce the very distinct ozone seasonality in the upper troposphere and in the lower stratosphere well.
Yafang Guo, Mohammad Amin Mirrezaei, Armin Sorooshian, and Avelino F. Arellano
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5591–5616, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5591-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5591-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the contributions of fire and anthropogenic emissions to O3 levels in Phoenix, Arizona, during a period of intense heat and drought conditions. We find that fire exacerbates O3 pollution and that interactions between weather, climate, and air chemistry are important to consider. This has implications for activities related to formulating emission reduction strategies in areas that are currently understudied yet becoming relevant due to reports of increasing global aridity.
Yujia Wang, Hongbin Wang, Bo Zhang, Peng Liu, Xinfeng Wang, Shuchun Si, Likun Xue, Qingzhu Zhang, and Qiao Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5537–5555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5537-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5537-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study established a bottom-up approach that employs real-time traffic flows and interpolation to obtain a spatially continuous on-road vehicle emission mapping for the main urban area of Jinan. The diurnal variation, spatial distribution, and emission hotspots were analyzed with clustering and hotspot analysis, showing unique fine-scale variation characteristics of on-road vehicle emissions. Future scenario analysis demonstrates remarkable benefits of electrification on emission reduction.
Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón, Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez, Heidi Huntrieser, Patrick Jöckel, and Eric J. Bucsela
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5557–5575, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5557-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5557-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning plays a significant role in tropospheric chemistry by producing substantial amounts of nitrogen oxides. According to recent estimates, thunderstorms that produce a higher lightning frequency rate also produce less nitrogen oxide per flash. We implemented the dependency of nitrogen oxide production per flash on lightning flash frequency in a chemical atmospheric model.
Aditya Nalam, Aura Lupaşcu, Tabish Ansari, and Tim Butler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5287–5311, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tropospheric O3 molecules are labeled with the identity of their precursor source to simulate contributions from various emission sources to the global tropospheric O3 burden (TOB) and its trends. With an equatorward shift, anthropogenic NOx emissions become significantly more efficient at producing O3 and play a major role in driving TOB trends, mainly due to larger convection at the tropics effectively lifting O3 and its precursors to the free troposphere, where O3 lifetime is longer.
Haofan Wang, Yuejin Li, Yiming Liu, Xiao Lu, Yang Zhang, Qi Fan, Chong Shen, Senchao Lai, Yan Zhou, Tao Zhang, and Dingli Yue
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5233–5250, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5233-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5233-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how urban green spaces (UGSs) in Guangzhou influence ozone levels. By using advanced models, we found that natural emissions from these areas can significantly affect air quality. Our results suggest that the design and planning of UGSs should not only consider aesthetics and social factors but also their environmental impacts on air quality.
Laura Stecher, Franziska Winterstein, Patrick Jöckel, Michael Ponater, Mariano Mertens, and Martin Dameris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5133–5158, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5133-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5133-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Methane, the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas, is chemically decomposed in the atmosphere. The chemical sink of atmospheric methane is not constant but depends on the temperature and on the abundance of its reaction partners. In this study, we use a global chemistry–climate model to assess the feedback of atmospheric methane induced by changes in the chemical sink in a warming climate and its implications for the chemical composition and the surface air temperature change.
Kai-Lan Chang, Brian C. McDonald, Colin Harkins, and Owen R. Cooper
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5101–5132, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5101-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5101-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Exposure to high levels of ozone can be harmful to human health. This study shows consistent and robust evidence of decreasing ozone extremes across much of the United States over the period from 1990 to 2023, previously attributed to ozone precursor emission controls. Nevertheless, we also show that the increasing heat wave frequencies are likely to contribute to additional ozone exceedances, slowing the progress of decreasing the frequency of ozone exceedances.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Marit Sandstad, Srinath Krishnan, Gunnar Myhre, and Maria Sand
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4929–4942, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4929-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4929-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrogen leakages can alter the amount of climate gases in the atmosphere and hence have a climate impact. In this study we investigate, using an atmospheric chemistry model, how this indirect climate effect differs with different amounts of leakages and with where the hydrogen leaks and if this effect changes in the future. The effect is largest for emissions far from areas where hydrogen is removed from the atmosphere by the soil, but these are not relevant locations for a future hydrogen economy.
Alok K. Pandey, David S. Stevenson, Alcide Zhao, Richard J. Pope, Ryan Hossaini, Krishan Kumar, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4785–4802, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4785-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrogen dioxide is an air pollutant largely controlled by human activity that affects ozone, methane, and aerosols. Satellite instruments can quantify column NO2 and, by carefully matching the time and location of measurements, enable evaluation of model simulations. NO2 over south and east Asia is assessed, showing that the model captures not only many features of the measurements, but also important differences that suggest model deficiencies in representing several aspects of the atmospheric chemistry of NO2.
Mingzhao Liu, Lars Hoffmann, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Zhongyin Cai, Sabine Grießbach, and Yi Heng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4403–4418, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4403-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4403-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the transport and chemical decomposition of volcanic SO2, focusing on the 2019 Raikoke event. By comparing two different chemistry modeling schemes, we found that including complex chemical reactions leads to a more accurate prediction of how long SO2 stays in the atmosphere. This research helps improve our understanding of volcanic pollution and its impact on air quality and climate, providing better tools for scientists to track and predict the movement of these pollutants.
Yufen Wang, Ke Li, Xi Chen, Zhenjiang Yang, Minglong Tang, Pascoal M. D. Campos, Yang Yang, Xu Yue, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4455–4475, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4455-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4455-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions on high tropospheric ozone levels are not well studied in southern Africa. We combined model simulations with recent observations at the surface and from space to quantify tropospheric ozone and its drivers in southern Africa. Our work focuses on the impact of emissions from different sources at different spatial scales, contributing to a comprehensive understanding of air pollution drivers and their uncertainties in southern Africa.
Dominika Pasik, Thomas Golin Almeida, Emelda Ahongshangbam, Siddharth Iyer, and Nanna Myllys
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4313–4331, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4313-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4313-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used quantum chemistry methods to investigate the oxidation mechanisms of acyl peroxy radicals (APRs) with various monoterpenes. Our findings reveal unique oxidation pathways for different monoterpenes, leading to either chain-terminating products or highly reactive intermediates that can contribute to particle formation in the atmosphere. This research highlights APRs as potentially significant but underexplored atmospheric oxidants that may influence future approaches to modelling climate.
Jincheol Park, Yunsoo Choi, and Sagun Kayastha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4291–4311, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4291-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4291-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated NOx emission contributions to NOy loadings across five regions of East Asia during the 2022 winter–spring transition through chemical transport modeling informed by satellite data. As seasons progress, local contributions within each region to its NOy budget decreased from 32 %–43 % to 23 %–30 %, while transboundary contributions increased from 16 %–33 % to 27 %–37 %, driven by a shift in synoptic settings that allowed pollutants to spread more broadly across the regions.
Qianqian Zhang, K. Folkert Boersma, Chiel van der Laan, Alba Mols, Bin Zhao, Shengyue Li, and Yuepeng Pan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3313–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3313-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3313-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate NOx emission estimates are required to better understand air pollution. This study investigates and demonstrates the ability of the superposition column model in combination with TROPOMI tropospheric NO2 column data to estimate city-scale NOx emissions and lifetimes and their variabilities. The results of this work nevertheless confirm the strength of the superposition column model in estimating urban NOx emissions with reasonable accuracy.
Wenbin Kou, Yang Gao, Dan Tong, Xiaojie Guo, Xiadong An, Wenyu Liu, Mengshi Cui, Xiuwen Guo, Shaoqing Zhang, Huiwang Gao, and Lixin Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3029–3048, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3029-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3029-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Unlike traditional numerical studies, we apply a high-resolution Earth system model, improving simulations of surface ozone and large-scale circulations such as atmospheric blocking. Besides local heat waves, we quantify the impact of atmospheric blocking on downstream ozone concentrations, which is closely associated with the blocking position. We identify three major pathways of Rossby wave propagation, stressing the critical role of large-scale circulation in regional air quality.
Beata Opacka, Trissevgeni Stavrakou, Jean-François Müller, Isabelle De Smedt, Jos van Geffen, Eloise A. Marais, Rebekah P. Horner, Dylan B. Millet, Kelly C. Wells, and Alex B. Guenther
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2863–2894, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2863-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2863-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation releases biogenic volatile organic compounds, while soils and lightning contribute to the natural emissions of nitrogen oxides into the atmosphere. These gases interact in complex ways. Using satellite data and models, we developed a new method to simultaneously optimize these natural emissions over Africa in 2019. Our approach resulted in an increase in natural emissions, supported by independent data indicating that current estimates are underestimated.
Xiaobo Wang, Yuzhong Zhang, Tamás Bozóki, Ruosi Liang, Xinchun Xie, Shutao Zhao, Rui Wang, Yujia Zhao, and Shuai Sun
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-370, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Schumann Resonance observations are used to parameterize lightning NOx emissions for better capturing global lightning trend and variability. Updated simulations reveal insignificant trend but greater variability in lightning NOx emissions, impacting tropospheric NOx, O3 and OH. Lightning generally counteracts non-lightning factors, reducing the inter-annua variability of tropospheric O3 and OH. Variations of global lightning play important role in understanding the atmospheric methane budget.
Xi Chen, Ke Li, Ting Yang, Xipeng Jin, Lei Chen, Yang Yang, Shuman Zhao, Bo Hu, Bin Zhu, Zifa Wang, and Hong Liao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-430, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-430, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol vertical distribution that plays a crucial role in aerosol-photolysis interaction (API) remains underrepresented in chemical models. We integrated lidar and radiosonde observations to constrain the simulated aerosol profiles over North China and quantified the photochemical responses. The increased photolysis rates in the lower layers led to increased ozone and accounted for a 36 %–56 % reduction in API effects, resulting in enhanced atmospheric oxidizing capacity and aerosol formation.
Jiaqi Shen, Ronald C. Cohen, Glenn M. Wolfe, and Xiaomeng Jin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-706, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-706, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows large chemical and radiative effects of smoke aerosols from fires on near-surface ozone production. Aerosol loading and NOx levels are identified as the primary factors influencing these effects. Furthermore, we show that the surface PM2.5 to NO2 column ratio can be used as an indicator for identifying aerosol-dominated regimes, facilitating the assessments of aerosol impacts on ozone formation through satellite observations.
Shuai Li, Haolin Wang, and Xiao Lu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2725–2743, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2725-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2725-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Summertime ozone–temperature sensitivity has decreased by 50 % from 3.0 ppbv per K in 1990 to 1.5 ppb per K in 2021 in the US. GEOS-Chem simulations show that anthropogenic nitrogen oxide emission reduction is the dominant driver of ozone–temperature sensitivity decline by influencing both temperature direct and temperature indirect processes. Reduced ozone–temperature sensitivity has decreased ozone enhancement from low to high temperatures by an average of 6.8 ppbv across the US.
Jinya Yang, Yutong Wang, Lei Zhang, and Yu Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2649–2666, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2649-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2649-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a modeling framework to predict future ozone concentrations (till the 2060s) in China following an IPCC scenario. We evaluate the contributions of climatic, anthropogenic, and biogenic factors by season and region. We find persistent emission controls will alter the nonlinear response of ozone to its precursors and dominate the declining ozone level. The outcomes highlight the importance of human actions, even with a climate penalty on air quality.
Takashi Sekiya, Emanuele Emili, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Antje Inness, Zhen Qu, R. Bradley Pierce, Dylan Jones, Helen Worden, William Y. Y. Cheng, Vincent Huijnen, and Gerbrand Koren
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2243–2268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2243-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2243-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Five global chemical reanalysis datasets were used to assess the relative impacts of assimilating satellite ozone and its precursor measurements on tropospheric ozone analyses for 2010. The multiple reanalysis system comparison allows an evaluation of the dependency of the impacts on different reanalysis systems. The results suggested the importance of satellite ozone and its precursor measurements for improving ozone analysis in the whole troposphere, with varying magnitudes among the systems.
Maureen Beaudor, Didier Hauglustaine, Juliette Lathière, Martin Van Damme, Lieven Clarisse, and Nicolas Vuichard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2017–2046, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2017-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2017-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Agriculture is the biggest ammonia (NH3) source, impacting air quality, climate, and ecosystems. Because of food demand, NH3 emissions are projected to rise by 2100. Using a global model, we analyzed the impact of present and future NH3 emissions generated from a land model. Our results show improved ammonia patterns compared to a reference inventory. Future scenarios predict up to 70 % increase in global NH3 burden, with significant changes in radiative forcing that can greatly elevate N2O.
Hui Li, Jiaxin Qiu, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1949–1963, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1949-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1949-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We conduct a sensitivity analysis with 31 tests on various factors including prior emissions, model resolution, satellite constraint, and other system configurations to assess the vulnerability of emission estimates across temporal, sectoral, and regional dimensions. This reveals the robustness of emissions estimated by this air-pollution-satellite-based CO2 emission inversion system, with relative change between tests and base inversion below 4.0 % for national annual NOx and CO2 emissions.
Yingying Hong, Yuqi Zhu, Yuxuan Huang, Yiming Liu, Chuqi Xiong, and Qi Fan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4132, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4132, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the impact of sea spray aerosol on ozone formation across Eastern China, highlighting its complex influence through both chemical reactions and radiative effects, which vary seasonally and geographically.
Yuqing Qiu, Xin Li, Wenxuan Chai, Yi Liu, Mengdi Song, Xudong Tian, Qiaoli Zou, Wenjun Lou, Wangyao Zhang, Juan Li, and Yuanhang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1749–1763, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1749-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1749-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The chemical reactions of ozone (O3) formation are related to meteorology and local emissions. Here, a random forest approach was used to eliminate the effects of meteorological factors (dispersion or transport) on O3 and its precursors. Variations in the sensitivity of O3 formation and the apportionment of emission sources were revealed after meteorological normalization. Our results suggest that meteorological variations should be considered when diagnosing O3 formation.
Qixiang Xu, Fangcheng Su, Ke Wang, Ruiqin Zhang, Qi Ying, and Michael J. Kleeman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-44, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-44, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This manuscript introduces a novel approach for improving the computational efficiency and scalability of source-oriented chemical mechanisms by simplifying the representation of reactions involving source-tagged species and implementing a source-oriented Euler Backward Iterative (EBI) solver. These advancements reduce simulation times by up to 74 % while maintaining accuracy, offering significant practical benefits for long-term source apportionment studies.
Jeongmin Yun, Junjie Liu, Brendan Byrne, Brad Weir, Lesley E. Ott, Kathryn McKain, Bianca C. Baier, Luciana V. Gatti, and Sebastien C. Biraud
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1725–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1725-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1725-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study quantifies errors in regional net surface–atmosphere CO2 flux estimates from an inverse model ensemble using airborne CO2 measurements. Our results show that flux error estimates based on observations significantly exceed those computed from the ensemble spread of flux estimates in regions with high fossil fuel emissions. This finding suggests the presence of systematic biases in the inversion estimates, associated with errors in the fossil fuel emissions common to all models.
Min Huang, Gregory R. Carmichael, Kevin W. Bowman, Isabelle De Smedt, Andreas Colliander, Michael H. Cosh, Sujay V. Kumar, Alex B. Guenther, Scott J. Janz, Ryan M. Stauffer, Anne M. Thompson, Niko M. Fedkin, Robert J. Swap, John D. Bolten, and Alicia T. Joseph
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1449–1476, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1449-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1449-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use model simulations along with multiplatform, multidisciplinary observations and a range of analysis methods to estimate and understand the distributions, temporal changes, and impacts of reactive nitrogen and ozone over the most populous US region that has undergone significant environmental changes. Deposition, biogenic emissions, and extra-regional sources have been playing increasingly important roles in controlling pollutant budgets in this area as local anthropogenic emissions drop.
Xavier Faïn, Sophie Szopa, Vaishali Naïk, Patricia Martinerie, David M. Etheridge, Rachael H. Rhodes, Cathy M. Trudinger, Vasilii V. Petrenko, Kévin Fourteau, and Philip Place
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1105–1119, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1105-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1105-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon monoxide (CO) plays a crucial role in the atmosphere's oxidizing capacity. In this study, we analyse how historical (1850–2014) [CO] outputs from state-of-the-art global chemistry–climate models over Greenland and Antarctica are able to capture both absolute values and trends recorded in multi-site ice archives. A disparity in [CO] growth rates emerges in the Northern Hemisphere between models and observations from 1920–1975 CE, possibly linked to uncertainties in CO emission factors.
Natalie Brett, Kathy S. Law, Steve R. Arnold, Javier G. Fochesatto, Jean-Christophe Raut, Tatsuo Onishi, Robert Gilliam, Kathleen Fahey, Deanna Huff, George Pouliot, Brice Barret, Elsa Dieudonné, Roman Pohorsky, Julia Schmale, Andrea Baccarini, Slimane Bekki, Gianluca Pappaccogli, Federico Scoto, Stefano Decesari, Antonio Donateo, Meeta Cesler-Maloney, William Simpson, Patrice Medina, Barbara D'Anna, Brice Temime-Roussel, Joel Savarino, Sarah Albertin, Jingqiu Mao, Becky Alexander, Allison Moon, Peter F. DeCarlo, Vanessa Selimovic, Robert Yokelson, and Ellis S. Robinson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1063–1104, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1063-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1063-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Processes influencing dispersion of local anthropogenic pollution in Arctic wintertime are investigated with Lagrangian dispersion modelling. Simulated power plant plume rise that considers temperature inversion layers improves results compared to observations (interior Alaska). Modelled surface concentrations are improved by representation of vertical mixing and emission estimates. Large increases in diesel vehicle emissions at temperatures reaching −35°C are required to reproduce observed NOx.
Chelsea E. Stockwell, Matthew M. Coggon, Rebecca H. Schwantes, Colin Harkins, Bert Verreyken, Congmeng Lyu, Qindan Zhu, Lu Xu, Jessica B. Gilman, Aaron Lamplugh, Jeff Peischl, Michael A. Robinson, Patrick R. Veres, Meng Li, Andrew W. Rollins, Kristen Zuraski, Sunil Baidar, Shang Liu, Toshihiro Kuwayama, Steven S. Brown, Brian C. McDonald, and Carsten Warneke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1121–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1121-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1121-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In urban areas, emissions from everyday products like paints, cleaners, and personal care products, along with non-traditional sources such as cooking, are increasingly important and impact air quality. This study uses a box model to evaluate how these emissions impact ozone in the Los Angeles Basin and quantifies the impact of gaseous cooking emissions. Accurate representation of these and other anthropogenic sources in inventories is crucial for informing effective air quality policies.
Xiaodan Ma, Jianping Huang, Michaela I. Hegglin, Patrick Jöckel, and Tianliang Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 943–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-943-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-943-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research explored changes in ozone levels in the northwest Pacific region over 30 years, revealing a significant increase in the middle-to-upper troposphere, especially during spring and summer. This rise is influenced by both stratospheric and tropospheric sources, which affect climate and air quality in East Asia. This work underscores the need for continued study to understand underlying mechanisms.
Hiroo Hata, Norifumi Mizushima, and Tomohiko Ihara
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1037–1061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1037-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1037-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The introduction of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is expected to reduce the primary air pollutants from vehicular exhaust and evaporative emissions while reducing the anthropogenic heat produced by vehicles, ultimately mitigating the urban heat island (UHI) effect. This study revealed the impact of introducing BEVs on the decrease in the UHI effect and the impact of BEVs on the formation of tropospheric ozone and fine particulate matter in the Greater Tokyo Area of Japan.
Wanmin Gong, Stephen R. Beagley, Kenjiro Toyota, Henrik Skov, Jesper Heile Christensen, Alexandru Lupu, Diane Pendlebury, Junhua Zhang, Ulas Im, Yugo Kanaya, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, Roberto Sommariva, Peter Effertz, John W. Halfacre, Nis Jepsen, Rigel Kivi, Theodore K. Koenig, Katrin Müller, Claus Nordstrøm, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Paul B. Shepson, William R. Simpson, Sverre Solberg, Ralf M. Staebler, David W. Tarasick, Roeland Van Malderen, and Mika Vestenius
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3750, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3750, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study showed that the springtime O3 depletion plays a critical role in driving the surface O3 seasonal cycle in Central Arctic. The O3 depletion events, while occurring most notably within the lowest few hundred metres above the Arctic Ocean, can induce a 5–7 % of loss in the pan-Arctic tropospheric O3 burden during springtime. The study also found an enhancement in O3 and NOy (mostly PAN) concentrations in the Arctic due to northern boreal wildfires, particularly at altitudes.
Nan Wang, Song Liu, Jiawei Xu, Yanyu Wang, Chun Li, Hua Lu, and Fumo Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3771, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We found that climate warming and changes in vegetation have increased biogenic volatile organic compound emissions in the Pearl River Delta region. These increasing natural emissions, mainly due to climate warming, are weakening the benefits of reducing man-made emission control, leading to higher ozone levels. This work helps us understand how climate change influences air quality and provides important insights for improving pollution control strategies in the future.
Ji Xia, Yi Zhou, Li Fang, Yingfei Qi, Dehao Li, Hong Liao, and Jianbing Jin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3938, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3938, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study established an ammonia emission inventory in South Asia via assimilation-based inversion system. The posterior emissions, calculated by integrating the CEDS inventory and IASI satellite observations, showed significant improvement over the prior. Validation against various measurements all support our posterior emission. It offers valuable insights of ammonia emissions for policymakers and researchers aiming to develop air quality management and mitigation strategies there.
Catalina Poraicu, Jean-François Müller, Trissevgeni Stavrakou, Crist Amelynck, Bert W. D. Verreyken, Niels Schoon, Corinne Vigouroux, Nicolas Kumps, Jérôme Brioude, Pierre Tulet, and Camille Mouchel-Vallon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3555, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3555, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the sources and impacts of nitrogen oxides and organic compounds over a remote tropical island. High-resolution WRF-Chem simulations were evaluated using in situ, FTIR and satellite measurements. This work highlights gaps in current models, like missing sources of key organic compounds and inaccuracies in emission inventories, emphasizing the importance of improving chemical and dynamical processes in atmospheric modelling for budget estimates in tropical regions.
Carlos Gómez-Ortiz, Guillaume Monteil, Sourish Basu, and Marko Scholze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 397–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-397-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-397-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we test new implementations of our inverse modeling tool to estimate the weekly and regional CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in Europe. We use synthetic atmospheric observations of CO2 and radiocarbon (14CO2) to trace emissions to their sources, while separating the natural and fossil CO2. Our tool accurately estimates fossil CO2 emissions in densely monitored regions like western/central Europe. This approach aids in developing strategies for reducing CO2 emissions.
David D. Parrish, Ian C. Faloona, and Richard G. Derwent
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 263–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-263-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-263-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Observation-based estimates of contributions to maximum ozone (O3) concentrations show that background O3 can exceed the air quality standard of 70 ppb in the southwestern US, precluding standard attainment. Over the past 4 decades, US anthropogenic O3 has decreased by a factor of ~ 6.3, while wildfire contributions have increased, so that the background now dominates maximum concentrations, even in Los Angeles, and the occurrence of maximum O3 has shifted from the eastern to the western US.
William P. L. Carter, Jia Jiang, John J. Orlando, and Kelley C. Barsanti
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 199–242, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-199-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-199-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the scientific basis for gas-phase atmospheric chemical mechanisms derived using the SAPRC mechanism generation system, MechGen. It can derive mechanisms for most organic compounds with C, H, O, or N atoms, including initial reactions of organics with OH, O3, NO3, and O3P or by photolysis, as well as the reactions of the various types of intermediates that are formed. The paper includes a description of areas of uncertainty where additional research and updates are needed.
María Cazorla, Melissa Trujillo, Rodrigo Seguel, and Laura Gallardo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3720, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3720, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The current climate emergency imposes the need to take actions in cities to curb ozone as a pollutant and a climate forcer. In this work we analyze how reducing the levels of ozone precursor would affect photochemical smog in Quito, Ecuador and Santiago, Chile. Results show that if environmental policy were implemented to reduce only nitrogen oxides, the production of ozone would increase substantially for which more integral solutions are needed.
Thibaut Lebourgeois, Bastien Sauvage, Pawel Wolff, Béatrice Josse, Virginie Marécal, Yasmine Bennouna, Romain Blot, Damien Boulanger, Hannah Clark, Jean-Marc Cousin, Philippe Nedelec, and Valérie Thouret
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13975–14004, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13975-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study examines intense-carbon-monoxide (CO) pollution events measured by commercial aircraft from the In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) research infrastructure. We combine these measurements with the SOFT-IO model to trace the origin of the observed CO. A comprehensive analysis of the geographical origin, source type, seasonal variation, and ozone levels of these pollution events is provided.
Xiao Lu, Yiming Liu, Jiayin Su, Xiang Weng, Tabish Ansari, Yuqiang Zhang, Guowen He, Yuqi Zhu, Haolin Wang, Ganquan Zeng, Jingyu Li, Cheng He, Shuai Li, Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen, Tim Butler, Qi Fan, Shaojia Fan, Grant L. Forster, Meng Gao, Jianlin Hu, Yugo Kanaya, Mohd Talib Latif, Keding Lu, Philippe Nédélec, Peer Nowack, Bastien Sauvage, Xiaobin Xu, Lin Zhang, Ke Li, Ja-Ho Koo, and Tatsuya Nagashima
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3702, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3702, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes summertime ozone trends in East and Southeast Asia derived from a comprehensive observational database spanning from 1995 to 2019, incorporating aircraft observations, ozonesonde data, and measurements from 2500 surface sites. Multiple models are applied to attribute to changes in anthropogenic emissions and climate. The results highlight increases in anthropogenic emission are the primary driver of ozone increases both in the free troposphere and at the surface.
Hassnae Erraji, Philipp Franke, Astrid Lampert, Tobias Schuldt, Ralf Tillmann, Andreas Wahner, and Anne Caroline Lange
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13913–13934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13913-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Four-dimensional variational data assimilation allows for the simultaneous optimisation of initial values and emission rates by using trace-gas profiles from drone observations in a regional air quality model. Assimilated profiles positively impact the representation of air pollutants in the model by improving their vertical distribution and ground-level concentrations. This case study highlights the potential of drone data to enhance air quality analyses including local emission evaluation.
Christopher Lawrence, Mary Barth, John Orlando, Paul Casson, Richard Brandt, Daniel Kelting, Elizabeth Yerger, and Sara Lance
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13693–13713, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13693-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13693-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work uses chemical transport and box modeling to study the gas- and aqueous-phase production of organic acid concentrations measured in cloud water at the summit of Whiteface Mountain on 1 July 2018. Isoprene was the major source of formic, acetic, and oxalic acid. Gas-phase chemistry greatly underestimated formic and acetic acid, indicating missing sources, while cloud chemistry was a key source of oxalic acid. More studies of organic acids are required to better constrain their sources.
Markus Kilian, Volker Grewe, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, Mariano Mertens, Andreas Zahn, and Helmut Ziereis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13503–13523, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13503-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13503-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic emissions are a major source of precursors of tropospheric ozone. As ozone formation is highly non-linear, we apply a global–regional chemistry–climate model with a source attribution method (tagging) to quantify the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to ozone. Our analysis shows that the contribution of European anthropogenic emissions largely increases during large ozone periods, indicating that emissions from these sectors drive ozone values.
Nana Wei, Eloise A. Marais, Gongda Lu, Robert G. Ryan, and Bastien Sauvage
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3388, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3388, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses reactive nitrogen observations from NASA DC-8 research aircraft and The In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) campaigns to characterise reactive nitrogen seasonality and composition in the global upper troposphere and to diagnose the greatest knowledge gaps from comparison to a state-of-science model GEOS-Chem that need to be resolved for climate, nitrogen cycle and air pollution assessments.
Cited articles
Abbott, K. N., Leblon, B., Staples, G. C., Maclean, D. A., and Alexander, M. E.: Fire danger monitoring using RADARSAT-1 over northern boreal forests, Int. J. Remote Sens., 28, 1317–1338, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160600904956, 2007.
Akagi, S. K., Yokelson, R. J., Wiedinmyer, C., Alvarado, M. J., Reid, J. S., Karl, T., Crounse, J. D., and Wennberg, P. O.: Emission factors for open and domestic biomass burning for use in atmospheric models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 4039–4072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4039-2011, 2011.
Alvarado, M. J., Logan, J. A., Mao, J., Apel, E., Riemer, D., Blake, D., Cohen, R. C., Min, K.-E., Perring, A. E., Browne, E. C., Wooldridge, P. J., Diskin, G. S., Sachse, G. W., Fuelberg, H., Sessions, W. R., Harrigan, D. L., Huey, G., Liao, J., Case-Hanks, A., Jimenez, J. L., Cubison, M. J., Vay, S. A., Weinheimer, A. J., Knapp, D. J., Montzka, D. D., Flocke, F. M., Pollack, I. B., Wennberg, P. O., Kurten, A., Crounse, J., Clair, J. M. St., Wisthaler, A., Mikoviny, T., Yantosca, R. M., Carouge, C. C., and Le Sager, P.: Nitrogen oxides and PAN in plumes from boreal fires during ARCTAS-B and their impact on ozone: an integrated analysis of aircraft and satellite observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 9739–9760, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-9739-2010, 2010.
Amiro, B. D., Todd, J. B., Wotton, B. M., Logan, K. A., Flannigan, M. D., Stocks, B. J., Mason, J. A., Martell, D. L., and Hirsch, K. G.: Direct carbon emissions from Canadian forest fires, 1959–1999, Can. J. Forest Res., 31, 512–525, https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-31-3-512, 2001.
Amiro, B. D., Logan, K. A., Wotton, B. M., Flannigan, M. D., Todd, J. B., Stocks, B. J., and Martell, D. L.: Fire weather index system components for large fires in the Canadian boreal forest, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 13, 391–400, https://doi.org/10.1071/Wf03066, 2004.
Amiro, B. D., Cantin, A., Flannigan, M. D., and de Groot, W. J.: Future emissions from Canadian boreal forest fires, Can. J. For. Res., 39, 383–395, https://doi.org/10.1139/X08-154, 2009.
Andreae, M. O. and Merlet, P.: Emission of trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 15, 955–966, 2001.
Bachelet, D., Lenihan, J., Neilson, R., Drapek, R., and Kittel, T.: Simulating the response of natural ecosystems and their fire regimes to climatic variability in Alaska, Can. J. Forest Res., 35, 2244–2257, https://doi.org/10.1139/X05-086, 2005.
Balshi, M. S., McGuire, A. D., Zhuang, Q., Melillo, J., Kicklighter, D. W., Kasischke, E., Wirth, C., Flannigan, M., Harden, J., Clein, J. S., Burnside, T. J., McAllister, J., Kurz, W. A., Apps, M., and Shvidenko, A.: The role of historical fire disturbance in the carbon dynamics of the pan-boreal region: A process-based analysis, J. Geophys. Res., 112, G02029, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006jg000380, 2007.
Balshi, M. S., McGuirez, A. D., Duffy, P., Flannigan, M., Walsh, J., and Melillo, J.: Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach, Glob. Change Biol., 15, 578–600, https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1365-2486.2008.01679.X, 2009.
Benkovitz, C. M., Scholtz, M. T., Pacyna, J., Tarrason, L., Dignon, J., Voldner, E. C., Spiro, P. A., Logan, J. A., and Graedel, T. E.: Global gridded inventories of anthropogenic emissions of sulfur and nitrogen, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 101, 29239–29253, https://doi.org/10.1029/96jd00126, 1996.
Boulanger, Y., Gauthier, S., and Burton, P. J.: A refinement of models projecting future Canadian fire regimes using homogeneous fire regime zones, Can. J. Forest Res., 44, 365–376, https://doi.org/10.1139/Cjfr-2013-0372, 2014.
Bourgeau-Chavez, L. L., Kasischke, E. S., and Rutherford, M. D.: Evaluation of ERS SAR data for prediction of fire danger in a boreal region, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 9, 183–194, https://doi.org/10.1071/Wf00009, 1999.
Christensen, J. H., Hewitson, B., Busuioc, A., Chen, A., Gao, X., Held, I., Jones, R., Kolli, R. K., Kwon, W.-T., Laprise, R., Rueda, V. M. A., Mearns, L., Meneìndez, C. G., Räisänen, J., Rinke, A., Sarr, A., and Whetton, P.: Regional Climate Projections, in: Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 847–940, 2007.
Cook, P. A., Savage, N. H., Turquety, S., Carver, G. D., O'Connor, F. M., Heckel, A., Stewart, D., Whalley, L. K., Parker, A. E., Schlager, H., Singh, H. B., Avery, M. A., Sachse, G. W., Brune, W., Richter, A., Burrows, J. P., Purvis, R., Lewis, A. C., Reeves, C. E., Monks, P. S., Levine, J. G., and Pyle, J. A.: Forest fire plumes over the North Atlantic: p-TOMCAT model simulations with aircraft and satellite measurements from the ITOP/ICARTT campaign, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D10s43, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006jd007563, 2007.
Crevoisier, C., Shevliakova, E., Gloor, M., Wirth, C., and Pacala, S.: Drivers of fire in the boreal forests: Data constrained design of a prognostic model of burned area for use in dynamic global vegetation models, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D24112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006jd008372, 2007.
de Groot, W. J., Pritchard, J. M., and Lynham, T. J.: Forest floor fuel consumption and carbon emissions in Canadian boreal forest fires, Can. J. Forest Res., 39, 367–382, 2009.
de Groot, W. J., Cantin, A. S., Flannigan, M. D., Soja, A. J., Gowman, L. M., and Newbery, A.: A comparison of Canadian and Russian boreal forest fire regimes, Forest Ecol. Manag., 294, 23–34, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.Foreco.2012.07.033, 2013.
DeSantis, R. D., Hallgren, S. W., and Stahle, D. W.: Drought and fire suppression lead to rapid forest composition change in a forest-prairie ecotone, Forest Ecol. Manag., 261, 1833–1840, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.Foreco.2011.02.006, 2011.
Duncan, B. N., Martin, R. V., Staudt, A. C., Yevich, R., and Logan, J. A.: Interannual and seasonal variability of biomass burning emissions constrained by satellite observations, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4100, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002jd002378, 2003.
Ecological Stratification Working Group: A national ecological framework for Canada, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and Environment Canada, Canada, 1996.
Fauria, M. M. and Johnson, E. A.: Large-scale climatic patterns control large lightning fire occurrence in Canada and Alaska forest regions, J. Geophys. Res., 111, G04008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006jg000181, 2006.
Fauria, M. M. and Johnson, E. A.: Climate and wildfires in the North American boreal forest, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B, 363, 2317–2329, https://doi.org/10.1098/Rstb.2007.2202, 2008.
Fauria, M. M. and Johnson, E. A.: Large-scale climatic patterns and area affected by mountain pine beetle in British Columbia, Canada, J. Geophys. Res., 114, G01012, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jg000760, 2009.
Fiore, A. M., Jacob, D. J., Bey, I., Yantosca, R. M., Field, B. D., Fusco, A. C., and Wilkinson, J. G.: Background ozone over the United States in summer: Origin, trend, and contribution to pollution episodes, J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4275, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001jd000982, 2002.
Fiore, A., Jacob, D. J., Liu, H., Yantosca, R. M., Fairlie, T. D., and Li, Q.: Variability in surface ozone background over the United States: Implications for air quality policy, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4787, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003jd003855, 2003.
Fischer, E. V., Jacob, D. J., Yantosca, R. M., Sulprizio, M. P., Millet, D. B., Mao, J., Paulot, F., Singh, H. B., Roiger, A., Ries, L., Talbot, R.W., Dzepina, K., and Pandey Deolal, S.: Atmospheric peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN): a global budget and source attribution, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 2679–2698, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2679-2014, 2014.
Flannigan, M. D. and Van Wagner, C. E.: Climate Change and Wildfire in Canada, Can. J. Forest Res., 21, 66–72, 1991.
Flannigan, M. D., Logan, K. A., Amiro, B. D., Skinner, W. R., and Stocks, B. J.: Future area burned in Canada, Clim. Change, 72, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1007/S10584-005-5935-Y, 2005.
French, N. H. F., Kasischke, E. S., Stocks, B. J., Mudd, J. P., Martell, D. L., and Lee, B. S.: Carbon release from fires in the North American boreal forest, in: Fire, climate change, and carbon cycling in the boreal forest, edited by: Kasischke, E. S. and Stocks, B. J., Springer-Verlag, New York, 377–388, 2000.
French, N. H. F., de Groot, W. J., Jenkins, L. K., Rogers, B. M., Alvarado, E., Amiro, B., de Jong, B., Goetz, S., Hoy, E., Hyer, E., Keane, R., Law, B. E., McKenzie, D., McNulty, S. G., Ottmar, R., Perez-Salicrup, D. R., Randerson, J., Robertson, K. M., and Turetsky, M.: Model comparisons for estimating carbon emissions from North American wildland fire, J. Geophys. Res., 116, G00k05, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010jg001469, 2011.
Gillett, N. P., Weaver, A. J., Zwiers, F. W., and Flannigan, M. D.: Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L18211, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004gl020876, 2004.
Goode, J. G., Yokelson, R. J., Ward, D. E., Susott, R. A., Babbitt, R. E., Davies, M. A., and Hao, W. M.: Measurements of excess O3, CO2, CO, CH4, C2H4, C2H2, HCN, NO, NH3, HCOOH, CH3COOH, HCHO, and CH3OH in 1997 Alaskan biomass burning plumes by airborne fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (AFTIR), J. Geophys. Res., 105, 22147–22166, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000jd900287, 2000.
Guenther, A. B., Jiang, X., Heald, C. L., Sakulyanontvittaya, T., Duhl, T., Emmons, L. K., and Wang, X.: The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature version 2.1 (MEGAN2.1): an extended and updated framework for modeling biogenic emissions, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 1471–1492, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1471-2012, 2012.
Hanson, P. J. and Weltzin, J. F.: Drought disturbance from climate change: response of United States forests, Sci. Total Environ., 262, 205–220, 2000.
Hegg, D. A., Radke, L. F., Hobbs, P. V., Rasmussen, R. A., and Riggan, P. J.: Emissions of Some Trace Gases from Biomass Fires, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 5669–5675, https://doi.org/10.1029/Jd095id05p05669, 1990.
Hely, C., Flannigan, M., Bergeron, Y., and McRae, D.: Role of vegetation and weather on fire behavior in the Canadian mixedwood boreal forest using two fire behavior prediction systems, Can. J. Forest Res., 31, 430–441, https://doi.org/10.1139/Cjfr-31-3-430, 2001.
Heyder, U., Schaphoff, S., Gerten, D., and Lucht, W.: Risk of severe climate change impact on the terrestrial biosphere, Environ. Res. Lett., 6, 034036, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034036, 2011.
Hudman, R. C., Murray, L. T., Jacob, D. J., Turquety, S., Wu, S., Millet, D. B., Avery, M., Goldstein, A. H., and Holloway, J.: North American influence on tropospheric ozone and the effects of recent emission reductions: Constraints from ICARTT observations, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D07302, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jd010126, 2009.
Jaffe, D. A. and Wigder, N. L.: Ozone production from wildfires: A critical review, Atmos. Environ., 51, 1=-10, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.11.063, 2012.
Jaffe, D., Chand, D., Hafner, W., Westerling, A., and Spracklen, D.: Influence of fires on O3 concentrations in the western US, Environ. Sci. Technol., 42, 5885–5891, https://doi.org/10.1021/Es800084k, 2008.
Jenkins, M. J., Runyon, J. B., Fettig, C. J., Page, W. G., and Bentz, B. J.: Interactions among the Mountain Pine Beetle, Fires, and Fuels, Forest Sci., 60, 489–501, https://doi.org/10.5849/Forsci.13-017, 2014.
Jiang, X. Y., Wiedinmyer, C., and Carlton, A. G.: Aerosols from Fires: An Examination of the Effects on Ozone Photochemistry in the Western United States, Environ. Sci. Technol., 46, 11878–11886, https://doi.org/10.1021/Es301541k, 2012.
Kang, C. M., Gold, D., and Koutrakis, P.: Downwind O3 and PM2.5 speciation during the wildfires in 2002 and 2010, Atmos. Environ., 95, 511–519, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.Atmosenv.2014.07.008, 2014.
Kasischke, E. S. and Turetsky, M. R.: Recent changes in the fire regime across the North American boreal region - Spatial and temporal patterns of burning across Canada and Alaska, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L09703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006gl025677, 2006.
Kasischke, E. S., Loboda, T., Giglio, L., French, N. H. F., Hoy, E. E., de Jong, B., and Riano, D.: Quantifying burned area for North American forests: Implications for direct reduction of carbon stocks, J. Geophys. Res., 116, G04003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jg001707, 2011.
Kasischke, E. S. and Hoy, E. E.: Controls on carbon consumption during Alaskan wildland fires, Glob. Change Biol., 18, 685–699, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02573.x, 2012.
Keane, R. E., Agee, J. K., Fule, P., Keeley, J. E., Key, C., Kitchen, S. G., Miller, R., and Schulte, L. A.: Ecological effects of large fires on US landscapes: benefit or catastrophe?, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 17, 696–712, https://doi.org/10.1071/Wf07148, 2008.
Lavoue, D. and Stocks, B. J.: Emissions of air pollutants by Canadian wildfires from 2000 to 2004, Int J Wildland Fire, 20, 17–34, https://doi.org/10.1071/Wf08114, 2011.
Leung, F. Y. T., Logan, J. A., Park, R., Hyer, E., Kasischke, E., Streets, D., and Yurganov, L.: Impacts of enhanced biomass burning in the boreal forests in 1998 on tropospheric chemistry and the sensitivity of model results to the injection height of emissions, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D10313, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006jd008132, 2007.
Littell, J. S., McKenzie, D., Peterson, D. L., and Westerling, A. L.: Climate and wildfire area burned in western U. S. ecoprovinces, 1916–2003, Ecol. Appl., 19, 1003–1021, 2009.
Liu, Y. Q.: Variability of wildland fire emissions across the contiguous United States, Atmos. Environ., 38, 3489–3499, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.Atmosenv.2004.02.004, 2004.
Lobert, J. M., Keene, W. C., Logan, J. A., and Yevich, R.: Global chlorine emissions from biomass burning: Reactive Chlorine Emissions Inventory, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 8373–8389, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998jd100077, 1999.
Marlier, M. E., Voulgarakis, A., Shindell, D. T., Faluvegi, G., Henry, C. L., and Randerson, J. T.: The role of temporal evolution in modeling atmospheric emissions from tropical fires, Atmos. Environ., 89, 158–168, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.Atmosenv.2014.02.039, 2014.
McKeen, S. A., Wotawa, G., Parrish, D. D., Holloway, J. S., Buhr, M. P., Hubler, G., Fehsenfeld, F. C., and Meagher, J. F.: Ozone production from Canadian wildfires during June and July of 1995, J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4192, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001jd000697, 2002.
McKenzie, D., Raymond, C. L., Kellogg, L. K. B., Norheim, R. A., Andreu, A. G., Bayard, A. C., Kopper, K. E., and Elman, E.: Mapping fuels at multiple scales: landscape application of the Fuel Characteristic Classification System, Can. J. Forest Res., 37, 2421–2437, https://doi.org/10.1139/X07-056, 2007.
McLinden, C. A., Olsen, S. C., Hannegan, B., Wild, O., Prather, M. J., and Sundet, J.: Stratospheric ozone in 3-D models: A simple chemistry and the cross-tropopause flux, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 14653–14665, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000jd900124, 2000.
Mearns, L. O., Giorgi, F., Mcdaniel, L., and Shields, C.: Analysis of Daily Variability of Precipitation in a Nested Regional Climate Model – Comparison with Observations and Doubled CO2 Results, Global Planet. Change, 10, 55–78, https://doi.org/10.1016/0921-8181(94)00020-E, 1995.
Meehl, G. A., Covey, C., Delworth, T., Latif, M., McAvaney, B., Mitchell, J. F. B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: A new era in climate change research, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 1383–1394, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383, 2007a.
Meehl, G. A., Stocker, T. F., Collins, W. D., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A. T., Gregory, J. M., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., Murphy, J. M., Noda, A., Raper, S. C. B., Watterson, I. G., Weaver, A. J., and Zhao, Z.-C.: Global Climate Projections, in: Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis, edited by: Allen, M. and Pant, G. B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 747–845, 2007b.
Mesinger, F., DiMego, G., Kalnay, E., Mitchell, K., Shafran, P. C., Ebisuzaki, W., Jovic, D., Woollen, J., Rogers, E., Berbery, E. H., Ek, M. B., Fan, Y., Grumbine, R., Higgins, W., Li, H., Lin, Y., Manikin, G., Parrish, D., and Shi, W.: North American regional reanalysis, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 87, 343–360, https://doi.org/10.1175/Bams-87-3-343, 2006.
Meyn, A., Schmidtlein, S., Taylor, S. W., Girardin, M. P., Thonicke, K., and Cramer, W.: Spatial variation of trends in wildfire and summer drought in British Columbia, Canada, 1920–2000, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 19, 272–283, https://doi.org/10.1071/Wf09055, 2010.
Miller, D. J., Sun, K., Zondlo, M. A., Kanter, D., Dubovik, O., Welton, E. J., Winker, D. M., and Ginoux, P.: Assessing boreal forest fire smoke aerosol impacts on U.S. air quality: A case study using multiple data sets, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D22209, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jd016170, 2011.
Morris, G. A., Hersey, S., Thompson, A. M., Pawson, S., Nielsen, J. E., Colarco, P. R., McMillan, W. W., Stohl, A., Turquety, S., Warner, J., Johnson, B. J., Kucsera, T. L., Larko, D. E., Oltmans, S. J., and Witte, J. C.: Alaskan and Canadian forest fires exacerbate ozone pollution over Houston, Texas, on 19 and 20 July 2004, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D24s03, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006jd007090, 2006.
Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, G. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Stouffer, R. J., Thomson, A. M., Weyant, J. P., and Wilbanks, T. J.: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, Nature, 463, 747–756, https://doi.org/10.1038/Nature08823, 2010.
Nadeau, L. B., McRae, D. J., and Jin, J. Z.: Development of a national fuel-type map for Canada using fuzzy logic, Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, Alberta.Information Report NOR-X-406, 2005.
Nance, J. D., Hobbs, P. V., and Radke, L. F.: Airborne Measurements of Gases and Particles from an Alaskan Wildfire, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 14873–14882, https://doi.org/10.1029/93jd01196, 1993.
Olivier, J. G. J. and Berdowski, J. J. M.: Global emissions sources and sinks, in: The Climate System, edited by: Berdowski, J., Guicherit, R., and Heij, B. J., A.A. Balkema Publishers/Swets & Zeitlinger Publishers, Lisse, the Netherlands, 2001.
Ottmar, R. D.: Consume 3.0 – a software tool for computing fuel consumption, US Forest Service, Washington, D. C., 1–6, 2009.
Ottmar, R. D., Sandberg, D. V., Riccardi, C. L., and Prichard, S. J.: An overview of the Fuel Characteristic Classification System – Quantifying, classifying, and creating fuelbeds for resource planning, Can. J. Forest Res., 37, 2383–2393, https://doi.org/10.1139/X07-077, 2007.
Pacifico, F., Folberth, G. A., Sitch, S., Haywood, J. M., Rizzo, L. V., Malavelle, F. F., and Artaxo, P.: Biomass burning related ozone damage on vegetation over the Amazon forest: a model sensitivity study, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2791–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2791-2015, 2015.
Philippi, T. E.: Multiple regression: Herbivory, in: Design and Analysis of Ecological Experiments, edited by: Scheiner, S., and Gurevitch, J., Chapman & Hall, New York, 1993.
Pickering, K. E., Wang, Y. S., Tao, W. K., Price, C., and Muller, J. F.: Vertical distributions of lightning NOx for use in regional and global chemical transport models, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 31203–31216, https://doi.org/10.1029/98jd02651, 1998.
Price, C. and Rind, D.: A Simple Lightning Parameterization for Calculating Global Lightning Distributions, J. Geophys. Res., 97, 9919–9933, 1992.
Price, D. T., Alfaro, R. I., Brown, K. J., Flannigan, M. D., Fleming, R. A., Hogg, E. H., Girardin, M. P., Lakusta, T., Johnston, M., McKenney, D. W., Pedlar, J. H., Stratton, T., Sturrock, R. N., Thompson, I. D., Trofymow, J. A., and Venier, L. A.: Anticipating the consequences of climate change for Canada's boreal forest ecosystems, Environ. Rev., 21, 322–365, https://doi.org/10.1139/Er-2013-0042, 2013.
Real, E., Law, K. S., Weinzierl, B., Fiebig, M., Petzold, A., Wild, O., Methven, J., Arnold, S., Stohl, A., Huntrieser, H., Roiger, A., Schlager, H., Stewart, D., Avery, M., Sachse, G., Browell, E., Ferrare, R., and Blake, D.: Processes influencing ozone levels in Alaskan forest fire plumes during long-range transport over the North Atlantic, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D10s41, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006jd007576, 2007.
Rogers, B. M., Neilson, R. P., Drapek, R., Lenihan, J. M., Wells, J. R., Bachelet, D., and Law, B. E.: Impacts of climate change on fire regimes and carbon stocks of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, J. Geophys. Res., 116, G03037, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jg001695, 2011.
Sigler, J. M., Lee, X., and Munger, W.: Emission and long-range transport of gaseous mercury from a large-scale Canadian boreal forest fire, Environ. Sci. Technol., 37, 4343–4347, https://doi.org/10.1021/Es026401r, 2003.
Simard, M., Romme, W. H., Griffin, J. M., and Turner, M. G.: Do mountain pine beetle outbreaks change the probability of active crown fire in lodgepole pine forests?, Ecol. Monogr., 81, 3–24, https://doi.org/10.1890/10-1176.1, 2011.
Skinner, W. R., Stocks, B. J., Martell, D. L., Bonsal, B., and Shabbar, A.: The association between circulation anomalies in the mid-troposphere and area burned by wildland fire in Canada, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 63, 89–105, https://doi.org/10.1007/S007040050095, 1999.
Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L.: Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007.
Spracklen, D. V., Mickley, L. J., Logan, J. A., Hudman, R. C., Yevich, R., Flannigan, M. D., and Westerling, A. L.: Impacts of climate change from 2000 to 2050 on wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations in the western United States, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D20301, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jd010966, 2009.
Stocks, B. J., Mason, J. A., Todd, J. B., Bosch, E. M., Wotton, B. M., Amiro, B. D., Flannigan, M. D., Hirsch, K. G., Logan, K. A., Martell, D. L., and Skinner, W. R.: Large forest fires in Canada, 1959–1997, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8149, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001jd000484, 2002.
Ter-Mikaelian, M. T., Colombo, S. J., and Chen, J. X.: Estimating natural forest fire return interval in northeastern Ontario, Canada, Forest Ecol. Manag., 258, 2037–2045, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.Foreco.2009.07.056, 2009.
Thompson, J. R. and Spies, T. A.: Vegetation and weather explain variation in crown damage within a large mixed-severity wildfire, Forest Ecol. Manag., 258, 1684–1694, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.Foreco.2009.07.031, 2009.
Turetsky, M. R., Kane, E. S., Harden, J. W., Ottmar, R. D., Manies, K. L., Hoy, E., and Kasischke, E. S.: Recent acceleration of biomass burning and carbon losses in Alaskan forests and peatlands, Nat. Geosci., 4, 27–31, https://doi.org/10.1038/Ngeo1027, 2011.
Turquety, S., Logan, J. A., Jacob, D. J., Hudman, R. C., Leung, F. Y., Heald, C. L., Yantosca, R. M., Wu, S. L., Emmons, L. K., Edwards, D. P., and Sachse, G. W.: Inventory of boreal fire emissions for North America in 2004: Importance of peat burning and pyroconvective injection, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D12s03, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006jd007281, 2007.
Urbanski, S.: Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Emission factors, Forest Ecol. Manag., 317, 51–60, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.Foreco.2013.05.045, 2014.
Val Martin, M., Honrath, R. E., Owen, R. C., Pfister, G., Fialho, P., and Barata, F.: Significant enhancements of nitrogen oxides, black carbon, and ozone in the North Atlantic lower free troposphere resulting from North American boreal wildfires, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D23s60, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006jd007530, 2006.
Val Martin, M., Logan, J. A., Kahn, R. A., Leung, F.-Y., Nelson, D. L., and Diner, D. J.: Smoke injection heights from fires in North America: analysis of 5 years of satellite observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 1491–1510, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-1491-2010, 2010.
Val Martin, M., Kahn, R. A., Logan, J. A., Paugam, R., Wooster, M., and Ichoku, C.: Space-based observational constraints for 1-D plume rise models, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D22204, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018370, 2012.
van der Werf, G. R., Randerson, J. T., Giglio, L., Collatz, G. J., Mu, M., Kasibhatla, P. S., Morton, D. C., DeFries, R. S., Jin, Y., and van Leeuwen, T. T.: Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997–2009), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 11707–11735, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-11707-2010, 2010.
Van Wagner, C. E.: The development and structure of the Canadian forest fire weather index system, Canadian Forest Service, Forest Technical Report 35, Ottawa, Canada, 1987.
Verma, S., Worden, J., Pierce, B., Jones, D. B. A., Al-Saadi, J., Boersma, F., Bowman, K., Eldering, A., Fisher, B., Jourdain, L., Kulawik, S., and Worden, H.: Ozone production in boreal fire smoke plumes using observations from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D02303, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jd010108, 2009.
Wang, H. Q., Jacob, D. J., Le Sager, P., Streets, D. G., Park, R. J., Gilliland, A. B., and van Donkelaar, A.: Surface ozone background in the United States: Canadian and Mexican pollution influences, Atmos. Environ., 43, 1310–1319, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.Atmosenv.2008.11.036, 2009.
Warneke, C., de Gouw, J. A., Stohl, A., Cooper, O. R., Goldan, P. D., Kuster, W. C., Holloway, J. S., Williams, E. J., Lerner, B. M., McKeen, S. A., Trainer, M., Fehsenfeld, F. C., Atlas, E. L., Donnelly, S. G., Stroud, V., Lueb, A., and Kato, S.: Biomass burning and anthropogenic sources of CO over New England in the summer 2004, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D23s15, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005jd006878, 2006.
Wendler, G., Conner, J., Moore, B., Shulski, M., and Stuefer, M.: Climatology of Alaskan wildfires with special emphasis on the extreme year of 2004, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 104, 459–472, https://doi.org/10.1007/S00704-010-0357-9, 2011.
Westerling, A. L., Gershunov, A., Brown, T. J., Cayan, D. R., and Dettinger, M. D.: Climate and wildfire in the western United States, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 84, 595–604, https://doi.org/10.1175/Bams-84-5-595, 2003.
Westerling, A. L., Turner, M. G., Smithwick, E. A. H., Romme, W. H., and Ryan, M. G.: Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 13165–13170, https://doi.org/10.1073/Pnas.1110199108, 2011.
Wotawa, G. and Trainer, M.: The influence of Canadian forest fires on pollutant concentrations in the United States, Science, 288, 324–328, 2000.
Wotton, B. M., Nock, C. A., and Flannigan, M. D.: Forest fire occurrence and climate change in Canada, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 19, 253–271, https://doi.org/10.1071/Wf09002, 2010.
Wu, S., Mickley, L. J., Jacob, D. J., Rind, D., and Streets, D. G.: Effects of 2000–2050 changes in climate and emissions on global tropospheric ozone and the policy-relevant background surface ozone in the United States, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D18312, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009639, 2008a.
Wu, S., Mickley, L. J., Leibensperger, E. M., Jacob, D. J., Rind, D., and Streets, D. G.: Effects of 2000–2050 global change on ozone air quality in the United States, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D06302, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008917, 2008b.
Wu, S. L., Mickley, L. J., Jacob, D. J., Logan, J. A., Yantosca, R. M., and Rind, D.: Why are there large differences between models in global budgets of tropospheric ozone?, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D05302, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006jd007801, 2007.
Yin, J. H.: A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023684, 2005.
Yue, X. and Unger, N.: Ozone vegetation damage effects on gross primary productivity in the United States, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9137–9153, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9137-2014, 2014.
Yue, X., Mickley, L. J., Logan, J. A., and Kaplan, J. O.: Ensemble projections of wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations over the western United States in the mid-21st century, Atmos. Environ., 77, 767–780, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2013.06.003, 2013.
Yue, X., Mickley, L. J., and Logan, J. A.: Projection of wildfire activity in southern California in the mid-twenty-first century, Clim. Dynam., 43, 1973–1991, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-2022-3, 2014.
Zhang, L., Jacob, D. J., Downey, N. V., Wood, D. A., Blewitt, D., Carouge, C. C., van Donkelaar, A., Jones, D. B. A., Murray, L. T., and Wang, Y. X.: Improved estimate of the policy-relevant background ozone in the United States using the GEOS-Chem global model with 1 / 2 degrees × 2 / 3 degrees horizontal resolution over North America, Atmos. Environ., 45, 6769–6776, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.Atmosenv.2011.07.054, 2011.
Zhang, L., Jacob, D. J., Yue, X., Downey, N. V., Wood, D. A., and Blewitt, D.: Sources contributing to background surface ozone in the US Intermountain West, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5295–5309, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5295-2014, 2014.
Short summary
Based on simulated meteorology from 13 GCMs, we projected future wildfire activity in Alaskan and Canadian ecoregions by the mid-century. The most robust change is the increase of 150-390% in area burned over Alaska and western Canada. The models also predict an increase of 45-90% in the central and southern Canadian ecoregions, but a decrease of up to 50% in northern Canada. We further quantify how the changes in wildfire emissions may affect ozone concentrations in North America.
Based on simulated meteorology from 13 GCMs, we projected future wildfire activity in Alaskan...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint