Impact of 2050 climate change on North American wildfire: consequences for ozone air quality

Yue, X.; Mickley, L. J.; Logan, J. A.; Hudman, R. C.; Martin, M. V.; Yantosca, R. M.

doi:10.5194/acp-15-10033-2015

Articles | Volume 15, issue 17

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10033-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10033-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 15, issue 17

Research article

|

08 Sep 2015

Research article |

| 08 Sep 2015

Impact of 2050 climate change on North American wildfire: consequences for ozone air quality

X. Yue, L. J. Mickley, J. A. Logan, R. C. Hudman, M. V. Martin, and R. M. Yantosca

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May 2015	88	122	4	214
Jun 2015	22	21	4	47
Jul 2015	25	17	2	44
Aug 2015	9	4	3	16
Sep 2015	174	108	40	322
Oct 2015	52	45	2	99
Nov 2015	46	52	2	100
Dec 2015	15	71	0	86
Jan 2016	39	28	2	69
Feb 2016	30	20	1	51
Mar 2016	27	21	0	48
Apr 2016	13	9	0	22
May 2016	9	7	0	16
Jun 2016	5	6	1	12
Jul 2016	7	5	3	15
Aug 2016	6	6	1	13
Sep 2016	10	3	0	13
Oct 2016	11	8	0	19
Nov 2016	6	5	2	13
Dec 2016	3	5	2	10
Jan 2017	16	10	5	31
Feb 2017	11	7	0	18
Mar 2017	19	12	6	37
Apr 2017	19	12	3	34
May 2017	24	15	3	42
Jun 2017	20	15	5	40
Jul 2017	16	8	2	26
Aug 2017	14	13	2	29
Sep 2017	13	15	1	29
Oct 2017	11	19	7	37
Nov 2017	24	29	2	55
Dec 2017	20	21	2	43
Jan 2018	43	21	1	65
Feb 2018	23	24	2	49
Mar 2018	24	30	3	57
Apr 2018	17	15	2	34
May 2018	15	16	1	32
Jun 2018	11	16	0	27
Jul 2018	19	11	2	32
Aug 2018	17	16	0	33
Sep 2018	12	22	1	35
Oct 2018	21	15	3	39
Nov 2018	20	11	2	33
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Jan 2019	15	9	5	29
Feb 2019	7	6	1	14
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Apr 2019	16	9	3	28
May 2019	10	9	2	21
Jun 2019	9	13	0	22
Jul 2019	12	11	2	25
Aug 2019	27	11	4	42
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Oct 2019	16	11	2	29
Nov 2019	16	18	1	35
Dec 2019	15	14	4	33
Jan 2020	16	9	3	28
Feb 2020	19	4	2	25
Mar 2020	6	1	0	7
Apr 2020	16	8	1	25
May 2020	9	7	4	20
Jun 2020	21	7	2	30
Jul 2020	26	11	7	44
Aug 2020	18	5	5	28
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Oct 2020	17	10	4	31
Nov 2020	18	3	5	26
Dec 2020	22	10	3	35
Jan 2021	38	7	3	48
Feb 2021	24	9	2	35
Mar 2021	24	15	2	41
Apr 2021	27	17	5	49
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Mar 2022	28	16	1	45
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Apr 2023	14	11	0	25
May 2023	44	22	0	66
Jun 2023	99	21	3	123
Jul 2023	72	18	1	91
Aug 2023	83	20	1	104
Sep 2023	156	17	2	175
Oct 2023	240	18	1	259
Nov 2023	223	6	1	230
Dec 2023	57	17	3	77
Jan 2024	74	25	2	101
Feb 2024	57	18	0	75
Mar 2024	67	20	2	89
Apr 2024	54	18	7	79
May 2024	30	15	1	46
Jun 2024	37	22	1	60
Jul 2024	45	25	5	75
Aug 2024	61	20	7	88
Sep 2024	34	24	2	60
Oct 2024	43	6	2	51
Nov 2024	36	9	3	48
Dec 2024	36	8	1	45
Jan 2025	45	13	0	58
Feb 2025	75	15	3	93
Mar 2025	44	10	1	55
Apr 2025	59	20	2	81
May 2025	90	18	0	108
Jun 2025	74	10	1	85
Jul 2025	61	14	0	75
Aug 2025	65	23	2	90
Sep 2025	44	13	3	60
Oct 2025	48	22	0	70
Nov 2025	64	33	4	101
Dec 2025	53	43	7	103
Jan 2026	73	42	11	126
Feb 2026	54	32	5	91
Mar 2026	14	8	0	22

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 13 May 2015)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
May 2015	88	122	4	214
Jun 2015	22	21	4	47
Jul 2015	25	17	2	44
Aug 2015	9	4	3	16
Sep 2015	174	108	40	322
Oct 2015	52	45	2	99
Nov 2015	46	52	2	100
Dec 2015	15	71	0	86
Jan 2016	39	28	2	69
Feb 2016	30	20	1	51
Mar 2016	27	21	0	48
Apr 2016	13	9	0	22
May 2016	9	7	0	16
Jun 2016	5	6	1	12
Jul 2016	7	5	3	15
Aug 2016	6	6	1	13
Sep 2016	10	3	0	13
Oct 2016	11	8	0	19
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Feb 2017	11	7	0	18
Mar 2017	19	12	6	37
Apr 2017	19	12	3	34
May 2017	24	15	3	42
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Aug 2017	14	13	2	29
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Nov 2017	24	29	2	55
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Jan 2023	28	23	3	54
Feb 2023	24	9	0	33
Mar 2023	29	21	2	52
Apr 2023	14	11	0	25
May 2023	44	22	0	66
Jun 2023	99	21	3	123
Jul 2023	72	18	1	91
Aug 2023	83	20	1	104
Sep 2023	156	17	2	175
Oct 2023	240	18	1	259
Nov 2023	223	6	1	230
Dec 2023	57	17	3	77
Jan 2024	74	25	2	101
Feb 2024	57	18	0	75
Mar 2024	67	20	2	89
Apr 2024	54	18	7	79
May 2024	30	15	1	46
Jun 2024	37	22	1	60
Jul 2024	45	25	5	75
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Sep 2024	34	24	2	60
Oct 2024	43	6	2	51
Nov 2024	36	9	3	48
Dec 2024	36	8	1	45
Jan 2025	45	13	0	58
Feb 2025	75	15	3	93
Mar 2025	44	10	1	55
Apr 2025	59	20	2	81
May 2025	90	18	0	108
Jun 2025	74	10	1	85
Jul 2025	61	14	0	75
Aug 2025	65	23	2	90
Sep 2025	44	13	3	60
Oct 2025	48	22	0	70
Nov 2025	64	33	4	101
Dec 2025	53	43	7	103
Jan 2026	73	42	11	126
Feb 2026	54	32	5	91
Mar 2026	14	8	0	22

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Short summary

Based on simulated meteorology from 13 GCMs, we projected future wildfire activity in Alaskan and Canadian ecoregions by the mid-century. The most robust change is the increase of 150-390% in area burned over Alaska and western Canada. The models also predict an increase of 45-90% in the central and southern Canadian ecoregions, but a decrease of up to 50% in northern Canada. We further quantify how the changes in wildfire emissions may affect ozone concentrations in North America.