Articles | Volume 15, issue 17
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10033-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10033-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Sep 2015
Research article |
| 08 Sep 2015
Impact of 2050 climate change on North American wildfire: consequences for ozone air quality
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
now at: School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
L. J. Mickley
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
J. A. Logan
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
R. C. Hudman
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
now at: Environmental Protection Agency, Region 9, San Francisco, California, USA
M. V. Martin
Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
R. M. Yantosca
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
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Cited
42 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Multi-instrument comparison and compilation of non-methane organic gas emissions from biomass burning and implications for smoke-derived secondary organic aerosol precursors L. Hatch et al. 10.5194/acp-17-1471-2017
- Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century W. Knorr et al. 10.5194/acp-17-9223-2017
- The complexities of wildfires 10.1038/s41561-019-0311-0
- Behavioral adaptation to climate change in wildfire‐prone forests M. Hamilton et al. 10.1002/wcc.553
- Atmospheric change as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone1 A. Yeung et al. 10.1139/er-2018-0055
- Shifts in Ecological Legacies Support Hysteresis of Stand Type Conversions in Boreal Forests X. Walker et al. 10.1007/s10021-023-00866-w
- Recognizing Women Leaders in Fire Science: Revisited A. Smith & E. Strand 10.3390/fire1030045
- Escalating carbon emissions from North American boreal forest wildfires and the climate mitigation potential of fire management C. Phillips et al. 10.1126/sciadv.abl7161
- Using of Production Wastes in Stormwater Drainage Purification A. Grytsenko et al. 10.4028/www.scientific.net/MSF.1006.194
- Comparison of ultraviolet absorbance and NO-chemiluminescence for ozone measurement in wildfire plumes at the Mount Bachelor Observatory H. Gao & D. Jaffe 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.07.007
- Response of Power Plant Emissions to Ambient Temperature in the Eastern United States D. Abel et al. 10.1021/acs.est.6b06201
- Climatic drivers of the Canadian wildfire episode in 2023 Y. Hu et al. 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100483
- The temporal and spatial relationships between climatic parameters and fire occurrence in northeastern Iran S. Eskandari et al. 10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106720
- Implementation of Yale Interactive terrestrial Biosphere model v1.0 into GEOS-Chem v12.0.0: a tool for biosphere–chemistry interactions Y. Lei et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-1137-2020
- Future inhibition of ecosystem productivity by increasing wildfire pollution over boreal North America X. Yue et al. 10.5194/acp-17-13699-2017
- Air pollution from wildfires and human health vulnerability in Alaskan communities under climate change S. Woo et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9270
- Continuous wildfires threaten public and ecosystem health under climate change across continents G. Chen et al. 10.1007/s11783-024-1890-6
- The 2018 fire season in North America as seen by TROPOMI: aerosol layer height intercomparisons and evaluation of model-derived plume heights D. Griffin et al. 10.5194/amt-13-1427-2020
- Influence of landscape moisture sources and topography on rock weathering patterns associated with wildfire L. Mol & M. Grenfell 10.1002/esp.5345
- Land cover change impacts on atmospheric chemistry: simulating projected large-scale tree mortality in the United States J. Geddes et al. 10.5194/acp-16-2323-2016
- Planning, implementation, and scientific goals of the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) field mission O. Toon et al. 10.1002/2015JD024297
- Projections of fire emissions and the consequent impacts on air quality under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming C. Tian et al. 10.1016/j.envpol.2023.121311
- Tropospheric ozone assessment report: Global ozone metrics for climate change, human health, and crop/ecosystem research A. Lefohn et al. 10.1525/elementa.279
- Effects of Climate Change on Burn Probability of Forests in Daxing’anling X. Tian et al. 10.3390/f10080611
- Increasing wildfires threaten historic carbon sink of boreal forest soils X. Walker et al. 10.1038/s41586-019-1474-y
- Air-quality-related health impacts from climate change and from adaptation of cooling demand for buildings in the eastern United States: An interdisciplinary modeling study D. Abel et al. 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002599
- “What We Breathe Impacts Our Health: Improving Understanding of the Link between Air Pollution and Health” J. West et al. 10.1021/acs.est.5b03827
- Indirect contributions of global fires to surface ozone through ozone–vegetation feedback Y. Lei et al. 10.5194/acp-21-11531-2021
- Processes Controlling the Composition and Abundance of Arctic Aerosol M. Willis et al. 10.1029/2018RG000602
- Recent Advances and Remaining Uncertainties in Resolving Past and Future Climate Effects on Global Fire Activity A. Williams & J. Abatzoglou 10.1007/s40641-016-0031-0
- Wildfires in the Siberian taiga V. Kharuk et al. 10.1007/s13280-020-01490-x
- Responses of surface ozone air quality to anthropogenic nitrogen deposition in the Northern Hemisphere Y. Zhao et al. 10.5194/acp-17-9781-2017
- Influence of 2000–2050 climate change on particulate matter in the United States: results from a new statistical model L. Shen et al. 10.5194/acp-17-4355-2017
- Quantifying the effects of environmental factors on wildfire burned area in the south central US using integrated machine learning techniques S. Wang & Y. Wang 10.5194/acp-20-11065-2020
- Satellite-derived emissions of carbon monoxide, ammonia, and nitrogen dioxide from the 2016 Horse River wildfire in the Fort McMurray area C. Adams et al. 10.5194/acp-19-2577-2019
- Ground-based investigation of HO<sub><i>x</i></sub> and ozone chemistry in biomass burning plumes in rural Idaho A. Lindsay et al. 10.5194/acp-22-4909-2022
- Accelerated rise in wildfire carbon emissions from Arctic continuous permafrost X. Zhu et al. 10.1016/j.scib.2024.05.022
- Spatial and temporal estimates of population exposure to wildfire smoke during the Washington state 2012 wildfire season using blended model, satellite, and in situ data W. Lassman et al. 10.1002/2017GH000049
- On the importance of the model representation of organic aerosol in simulations of the direct radiative effect of Siberian biomass burning aerosol in the eastern Arctic I. Konovalov et al. 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2023.119910
- On the Radiative Impact of Biomass-Burning Aerosols in the Arctic: The August 2017 Case Study F. Calì Quaglia et al. 10.3390/rs14020313
- Cold Traces of Smoke from Wildfires in the Environment N. Shaparev et al. 10.1007/s40710-024-00687-6
- How waviness in the circulation changes surface ozone: a viewpoint using local finite-amplitude wave activity W. Sun et al. 10.5194/acp-19-12917-2019
42 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Multi-instrument comparison and compilation of non-methane organic gas emissions from biomass burning and implications for smoke-derived secondary organic aerosol precursors L. Hatch et al. 10.5194/acp-17-1471-2017
- Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century W. Knorr et al. 10.5194/acp-17-9223-2017
- The complexities of wildfires 10.1038/s41561-019-0311-0
- Behavioral adaptation to climate change in wildfire‐prone forests M. Hamilton et al. 10.1002/wcc.553
- Atmospheric change as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone1 A. Yeung et al. 10.1139/er-2018-0055
- Shifts in Ecological Legacies Support Hysteresis of Stand Type Conversions in Boreal Forests X. Walker et al. 10.1007/s10021-023-00866-w
- Recognizing Women Leaders in Fire Science: Revisited A. Smith & E. Strand 10.3390/fire1030045
- Escalating carbon emissions from North American boreal forest wildfires and the climate mitigation potential of fire management C. Phillips et al. 10.1126/sciadv.abl7161
- Using of Production Wastes in Stormwater Drainage Purification A. Grytsenko et al. 10.4028/www.scientific.net/MSF.1006.194
- Comparison of ultraviolet absorbance and NO-chemiluminescence for ozone measurement in wildfire plumes at the Mount Bachelor Observatory H. Gao & D. Jaffe 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.07.007
- Response of Power Plant Emissions to Ambient Temperature in the Eastern United States D. Abel et al. 10.1021/acs.est.6b06201
- Climatic drivers of the Canadian wildfire episode in 2023 Y. Hu et al. 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100483
- The temporal and spatial relationships between climatic parameters and fire occurrence in northeastern Iran S. Eskandari et al. 10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106720
- Implementation of Yale Interactive terrestrial Biosphere model v1.0 into GEOS-Chem v12.0.0: a tool for biosphere–chemistry interactions Y. Lei et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-1137-2020
- Future inhibition of ecosystem productivity by increasing wildfire pollution over boreal North America X. Yue et al. 10.5194/acp-17-13699-2017
- Air pollution from wildfires and human health vulnerability in Alaskan communities under climate change S. Woo et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9270
- Continuous wildfires threaten public and ecosystem health under climate change across continents G. Chen et al. 10.1007/s11783-024-1890-6
- The 2018 fire season in North America as seen by TROPOMI: aerosol layer height intercomparisons and evaluation of model-derived plume heights D. Griffin et al. 10.5194/amt-13-1427-2020
- Influence of landscape moisture sources and topography on rock weathering patterns associated with wildfire L. Mol & M. Grenfell 10.1002/esp.5345
- Land cover change impacts on atmospheric chemistry: simulating projected large-scale tree mortality in the United States J. Geddes et al. 10.5194/acp-16-2323-2016
- Planning, implementation, and scientific goals of the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) field mission O. Toon et al. 10.1002/2015JD024297
- Projections of fire emissions and the consequent impacts on air quality under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming C. Tian et al. 10.1016/j.envpol.2023.121311
- Tropospheric ozone assessment report: Global ozone metrics for climate change, human health, and crop/ecosystem research A. Lefohn et al. 10.1525/elementa.279
- Effects of Climate Change on Burn Probability of Forests in Daxing’anling X. Tian et al. 10.3390/f10080611
- Increasing wildfires threaten historic carbon sink of boreal forest soils X. Walker et al. 10.1038/s41586-019-1474-y
- Air-quality-related health impacts from climate change and from adaptation of cooling demand for buildings in the eastern United States: An interdisciplinary modeling study D. Abel et al. 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002599
- “What We Breathe Impacts Our Health: Improving Understanding of the Link between Air Pollution and Health” J. West et al. 10.1021/acs.est.5b03827
- Indirect contributions of global fires to surface ozone through ozone–vegetation feedback Y. Lei et al. 10.5194/acp-21-11531-2021
- Processes Controlling the Composition and Abundance of Arctic Aerosol M. Willis et al. 10.1029/2018RG000602
- Recent Advances and Remaining Uncertainties in Resolving Past and Future Climate Effects on Global Fire Activity A. Williams & J. Abatzoglou 10.1007/s40641-016-0031-0
- Wildfires in the Siberian taiga V. Kharuk et al. 10.1007/s13280-020-01490-x
- Responses of surface ozone air quality to anthropogenic nitrogen deposition in the Northern Hemisphere Y. Zhao et al. 10.5194/acp-17-9781-2017
- Influence of 2000–2050 climate change on particulate matter in the United States: results from a new statistical model L. Shen et al. 10.5194/acp-17-4355-2017
- Quantifying the effects of environmental factors on wildfire burned area in the south central US using integrated machine learning techniques S. Wang & Y. Wang 10.5194/acp-20-11065-2020
- Satellite-derived emissions of carbon monoxide, ammonia, and nitrogen dioxide from the 2016 Horse River wildfire in the Fort McMurray area C. Adams et al. 10.5194/acp-19-2577-2019
- Ground-based investigation of HO<sub><i>x</i></sub> and ozone chemistry in biomass burning plumes in rural Idaho A. Lindsay et al. 10.5194/acp-22-4909-2022
- Accelerated rise in wildfire carbon emissions from Arctic continuous permafrost X. Zhu et al. 10.1016/j.scib.2024.05.022
- Spatial and temporal estimates of population exposure to wildfire smoke during the Washington state 2012 wildfire season using blended model, satellite, and in situ data W. Lassman et al. 10.1002/2017GH000049
- On the importance of the model representation of organic aerosol in simulations of the direct radiative effect of Siberian biomass burning aerosol in the eastern Arctic I. Konovalov et al. 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2023.119910
- On the Radiative Impact of Biomass-Burning Aerosols in the Arctic: The August 2017 Case Study F. Calì Quaglia et al. 10.3390/rs14020313
- Cold Traces of Smoke from Wildfires in the Environment N. Shaparev et al. 10.1007/s40710-024-00687-6
- How waviness in the circulation changes surface ozone: a viewpoint using local finite-amplitude wave activity W. Sun et al. 10.5194/acp-19-12917-2019
Saved (final revised paper)
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Latest update: 21 Nov 2024
Short summary
Based on simulated meteorology from 13 GCMs, we projected future wildfire activity in Alaskan and Canadian ecoregions by the mid-century. The most robust change is the increase of 150-390% in area burned over Alaska and western Canada. The models also predict an increase of 45-90% in the central and southern Canadian ecoregions, but a decrease of up to 50% in northern Canada. We further quantify how the changes in wildfire emissions may affect ozone concentrations in North America.
Based on simulated meteorology from 13 GCMs, we projected future wildfire activity in Alaskan...
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