Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7041-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7041-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Opinion
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19 Jun 2024
Opinion | Highlight paper |
| 19 Jun 2024
| 19 Jun 2024
Opinion: Optimizing climate models with process knowledge, resolution, and artificial intelligence
California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
Google Research, Mountain View, CA, USA
L. Ruby Leung
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
Robert C. J. Wills
ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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Machine learning is playing an increasingly important role in hydrological modeling. In this paper, we introduce an adaptation of existing machine learning models for simulating streamflow in river basins, redesigning them with the goal of integrating them in climate models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our adapted model by showing that it outperforms a physics-based river model. These results motivate further studies of the use of machine-learning-based river models inside climate models.
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Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6259–6284, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6259-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6259-2022, 2022
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ClimateMachine is a new open-source Julia-language atmospheric modeling code. We describe its limited-area configuration and the model equations, and we demonstrate applicability through benchmark problems, including atmospheric flow in the shallow cumulus regime. We show that the discontinuous Galerkin numerics and model equations allow global conservation of key variables (up to sources and sinks). We assess CPU strong scaling and GPU weak scaling to show its suitability for large simulations.
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Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 3721–3740, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3721-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3721-2025, 2025
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We developed a high-resolution (4 km and hourly) observational derecho dataset over the United States east of the Rocky Mountains from 2004 to 2021 by using a mesoscale convective system dataset, bow echoes detected by a machine learning method, hourly gust speeds, and physically based identification criteria.
Chang Liao, L. Ruby Leung, Yilin Fang, Teklu Tesfa, and Robinson Negron-Juarez
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4601–4624, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4601-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4601-2025, 2025
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Understanding horizontal groundwater flow is important for understanding how water moves through the ground. Current climate models often simplify this process because they do not have information about the land surface that is detailed enough. Our study developed a new model that divides the land surface into hillslopes to better represent how groundwater flows. This model can help improve predictions of water availability and how it affects ecosystems.
Mauricio Lima, Katherine Deck, Oliver R. A. Dunbar, and Tapio Schneider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3145–3164, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3145-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3145-2025, 2025
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Machine learning is playing an increasingly important role in hydrological modeling. In this paper, we introduce an adaptation of existing machine learning models for simulating streamflow in river basins, redesigning them with the goal of integrating them in climate models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our adapted model by showing that it outperforms a physics-based river model. These results motivate further studies of the use of machine-learning-based river models inside climate models.
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Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2713–2733, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2713-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2713-2025, 2025
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Naser Mahfouz, Hassan Beydoun, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Noel Keen, Adam C. Varble, Luca Bertagna, Peter Bogenschutz, Andrew Bradley, Matthew W. Christensen, T. Conrad Clevenger, Aaron Donahue, Jerome Fast, James Foucar, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Oksana Guba, Walter Hannah, Benjamin Hillman, Robert Jacob, Wuyin Lin, Po-Lun Ma, Yun Qian, Balwinder Singh, Christopher Terai, Hailong Wang, Mingxuan Wu, Kai Zhang, Andrew Gettelman, Mark Taylor, L. Ruby Leung, Peter Caldwell, and Susannah Burrows
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1868, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1868, 2025
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Our study assesses the aerosol effective radiative forcing in a global cloud-resolving atmosphere model at ultra-high resolution. We demonstrate that global ERFaer signal can be robustly reproduced across resolutions when aerosol activation processes are carefully parameterized. Further, we argue that simplified prescribed aerosol schemes will open the door for further process/mechanism studies under controlled conditions.
Pengfei Shi, L. Ruby Leung, and Bin Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2443–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2443-2025, 2025
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Improving climate predictions has significant socio-economic impacts. In this study, we develop and apply a new weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system to a coupled climate model. The WCODA system improves simulations of ocean temperature and salinity across many global regions. This system is meant to advance our understanding of the ocean's role in climate predictability.
Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Hong-Yi Li, Mingjie Shi, and L. Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1847–1864, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1847-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1847-2025, 2025
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Nora L. S. Fahrenbach, Steven J. De Hertog, and Robert C. J. Wills
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1262, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1262, 2025
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Afforestation is a key strategy for climate change mitigation, yet the impacts on tropical hydroclimate remain uncertain. We find that future afforestation would increase evaporation and precipitation in the tropics, especially over Africa. It would also reduce net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation) in these regions, which determines water availability. This happens because trees slow near-surface winds, while their influence on the energy budget strengthens convection.
Clarissa A. Kroll, Andrea Schneidereit, Robert C. J. Wills, Luis Kornblueh, and Ulrike Niemeier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1212, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1212, 2025
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The double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone is a prominent precipitation bias in climate models. We demonstrate its persistence from a resolution of 160 km up to 5 km. Its root cause lies in biased moisture transport from the subtropics to the inner tropics reducing convection and weakening tropical circulation. Increasing the surface wind speed addresses the bias, but deteriorates the global circulation. This highlights the importance of resolution hierarchies and parametrization development.
Malcolm J. Roberts, Kevin A. Reed, Qing Bao, Joseph J. Barsugli, Suzana J. Camargo, Louis-Philippe Caron, Ping Chang, Cheng-Ta Chen, Hannah M. Christensen, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Ivy Frenger, Neven S. Fučkar, Shabeh ul Hasson, Helene T. Hewitt, Huanping Huang, Daehyun Kim, Chihiro Kodama, Michael Lai, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung, Ryo Mizuta, Paulo Nobre, Pablo Ortega, Dominique Paquin, Christopher D. Roberts, Enrico Scoccimarro, Jon Seddon, Anne Marie Treguier, Chia-Ying Tu, Paul A. Ullrich, Pier Luigi Vidale, Michael F. Wehner, Colin M. Zarzycki, Bosong Zhang, Wei Zhang, and Ming Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1307–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, 2025
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Zeli Tan, Donghui Xu, Sourav Taraphdar, Jiangqin Ma, Gautam Bisht, and L. Ruby Leung
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3816, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3816, 2025
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Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 19–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-19-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-19-2025, 2025
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Nicola Maher, Adam S. Phillips, Clara Deser, Robert C. Jnglin Wills, Flavio Lehner, John Fasullo, Julie M. Caron, Lukas Brunner, and Urs Beyerle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3684, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3684, 2024
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We present a new multi-model large ensemble archive (MMLEAv2) and introduce the newly updated Climate Variability Diagnostics Package version 6 (CVDPv6), which is designed specifically for use with large ensembles. For highly variable quantities, we demonstrate that a model might evaluate poorly or favourably compared to the single realisation of the world that the observations represent, highlighting the need for large ensembles for model evaluation.
Johannes Mülmenstädt, Andrew S. Ackerman, Ann M. Fridlind, Meng Huang, Po-Lun Ma, Naser Mahfouz, Susanne E. Bauer, Susannah M. Burrows, Matthew W. Christensen, Sudhakar Dipu, Andrew Gettelman, L. Ruby Leung, Florian Tornow, Johannes Quaas, Adam C. Varble, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, and Youtong Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13633–13652, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13633-2024, 2024
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Stratocumulus clouds play a large role in Earth's climate by reflecting incoming solar energy back to space. Turbulence at stratocumulus cloud top mixes in dry, warm air, which can lead to cloud dissipation. This process is challenging for coarse-resolution global models to represent. We show that global models nevertheless agree well with our process understanding. Global models also think the process is less important for the climate than other lines of evidence have led us to conclude.
Fang Li, Xiang Song, Sandy P. Harrison, Jennifer R. Marlon, Zhongda Lin, L. Ruby Leung, Jörg Schwinger, Virginie Marécal, Shiyu Wang, Daniel S. Ward, Xiao Dong, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, and Roland Séférian
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8751–8771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, 2024
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This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of historical fire simulations from 19 Earth system models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Most models reproduce global totals, spatial patterns, seasonality, and regional historical changes well but fail to simulate the recent decline in global burned area and underestimate the fire response to climate variability. CMIP6 simulations address three critical issues of phase-5 models.
Fan Mei, Jennifer M. Comstock, Mikhail S. Pekour, Jerome D. Fast, Krista L. Gaustad, Beat Schmid, Shuaiqi Tang, Damao Zhang, John E. Shilling, Jason M. Tomlinson, Adam C. Varble, Jian Wang, L. Ruby Leung, Lawrence Kleinman, Scot Martin, Sebastien C. Biraud, Brian D. Ermold, and Kenneth W. Burk
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 5429–5448, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5429-2024, 2024
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Our study explores a comprehensive dataset from airborne field studies (2013–2018) conducted using the US Department of Energy's Gulfstream 1 (G-1). The 236 flights span diverse regions, including the Arctic, US Southern Great Plains, US West Coast, eastern North Atlantic, Amazon Basin in Brazil, and Sierras de Córdoba range in Argentina. This dataset provides unique insights into atmospheric dynamics, aerosols, and clouds and makes data available in a more accessible format.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Donghui Xu, Chang Liao, Gautam Bisht, James J. Benedict, Tian Zhou, Mithun Deb, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785, 2024
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Our study explores how riverine and coastal flooding during hurricanes is influenced by the interaction of atmosphere, land, river and ocean conditions. Using an advanced Earth system model, we simulate Hurricane Irene to evaluate how meteorological and hydrological uncertainties affect flood modeling. Our findings reveal the importance of a multi-component modeling system, how hydrological conditions play critical roles in flood modeling, and greater flood risks if multiple factors are present.
Johannes Mülmenstädt, Edward Gryspeerdt, Sudhakar Dipu, Johannes Quaas, Andrew S. Ackerman, Ann M. Fridlind, Florian Tornow, Susanne E. Bauer, Andrew Gettelman, Yi Ming, Youtong Zheng, Po-Lun Ma, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, Matthew W. Christensen, Adam C. Varble, L. Ruby Leung, Xiaohong Liu, David Neubauer, Daniel G. Partridge, Philip Stier, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7331–7345, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7331-2024, 2024
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Human activities release copious amounts of small particles called aerosols into the atmosphere. These particles change how much sunlight clouds reflect to space, an important human perturbation of the climate, whose magnitude is highly uncertain. We found that the latest climate models show a negative correlation but a positive causal relationship between aerosols and cloud water. This means we need to be very careful when we interpret observational studies that can only see correlation.
David B. Bonan, Jakob Dörr, Robert C. J. Wills, Andrew F. Thompson, and Marius Årthun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2141–2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2141-2024, 2024
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Antarctic sea ice has exhibited variability over satellite records, including a period of gradual expansion and a period of sudden decline. We use a novel statistical method to identify sources of variability in observed Antarctic sea ice changes. We find that the gradual increase in sea ice is likely related to large-scale temperature trends, and periods of abrupt sea ice decline are related to specific flavors of equatorial tropical variability known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Lingcheng Li, Gautam Bisht, Dalei Hao, and L. Ruby Leung
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2007–2032, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2007-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2007-2024, 2024
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This study fills a gap to meet the emerging needs of kilometer-scale Earth system modeling by developing global 1 km land surface parameters for land use, vegetation, soil, and topography. Our demonstration simulations highlight the substantial impacts of these parameters on spatial variability and information loss in water and energy simulations. Using advanced explainable machine learning methods, we identified influential factors driving spatial variability and information loss.
Bryce E. Harrop, Jian Lu, L. Ruby Leung, William K. M. Lau, Kyu-Myong Kim, Brian Medeiros, Brian J. Soden, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Bosong Zhang, and Balwinder Singh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3111–3135, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3111-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3111-2024, 2024
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Seven new experimental setups designed to interfere with cloud radiative heating have been added to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). These experiments include both those that test the mean impact of cloud radiative heating and those examining its covariance with circulations. This paper documents the code changes and steps needed to run these experiments. Results corroborate prior findings for how cloud radiative heating impacts circulations and rainfall patterns.
Pengfei Shi, L. Ruby Leung, Bin Wang, Kai Zhang, Samson M. Hagos, and Shixuan Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3025–3040, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3025-2024, 2024
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Improving climate predictions have profound socio-economic impacts. This study introduces a new weakly coupled land data assimilation (WCLDA) system for a coupled climate model. We demonstrate improved simulation of soil moisture and temperature in many global regions and throughout the soil layers. Furthermore, significant improvements are also found in reproducing the time evolution of the 2012 US Midwest drought. The WCLDA system provides the groundwork for future predictability studies.
Yawen Liu, Yun Qian, Philip J. Rasch, Kai Zhang, Lai-yung Ruby Leung, Yuhang Wang, Minghuai Wang, Hailong Wang, Xin Huang, and Xiu-Qun Yang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3115–3128, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3115-2024, 2024
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Fire management has long been a challenge. Here we report that spring-peak fire activity over southern Mexico and Central America (SMCA) has a distinct quasi-biennial signal by measuring multiple fire metrics. This signal is initially driven by quasi-biennial variability in precipitation and is further amplified by positive feedback of fire–precipitation interaction at short timescales. This work highlights the importance of fire–climate interactions in shaping fires on an interannual scale.
Donghui Xu, Gautam Bisht, Zeli Tan, Chang Liao, Tian Zhou, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1197–1215, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1197-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1197-2024, 2024
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We aim to disentangle the hydrological and hydraulic controls on streamflow variability in a fully coupled earth system model. We found that calibrating only one process (i.e., traditional calibration procedure) will result in unrealistic parameter values and poor performance of the water cycle, while the simulated streamflow is improved. To address this issue, we further proposed a two-step calibration procedure to reconcile the impacts from hydrological and hydraulic processes on streamflow.
Calvin Howes, Pablo E. Saide, Hugh Coe, Amie Dobracki, Steffen Freitag, Jim M. Haywood, Steven G. Howell, Siddhant Gupta, Janek Uin, Mary Kacarab, Chongai Kuang, L. Ruby Leung, Athanasios Nenes, Greg M. McFarquhar, James Podolske, Jens Redemann, Arthur J. Sedlacek, Kenneth L. Thornhill, Jenny P. S. Wong, Robert Wood, Huihui Wu, Yang Zhang, Jianhao Zhang, and Paquita Zuidema
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13911–13940, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13911-2023, 2023
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To better understand smoke properties and its interactions with clouds, we compare the WRF-CAM5 model with observations from ORACLES, CLARIFY, and LASIC field campaigns in the southeastern Atlantic in August 2017. The model transports and mixes smoke well but does not fully capture some important processes. These include smoke chemical and physical aging over 4–12 days, smoke removal by rain, sulfate particle formation, aerosol activation into cloud droplets, and boundary layer turbulence.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Donghui Xu, and L. Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3911–3934, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3911-2023, 2023
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This study assesses the flood risks concurrently induced by river flooding and coastal storm surge along the coast of the contiguous United States using statistical and numerical models. We reveal a few hotspots of such risks, the critical spatial variabilities within a river basin and over the whole US coast, and the uncertainties of the risk assessment. We highlight the importance of weighing different risk measures to avoid underestimating or exaggerating the compound flood impacts.
Jakob Simon Dörr, David B. Bonan, Marius Årthun, Lea Svendsen, and Robert C. J. Wills
The Cryosphere, 17, 4133–4153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4133-2023, 2023
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The Arctic sea-ice cover is retreating due to climate change, but this retreat is influenced by natural (internal) variability in the climate system. We use a new statistical method to investigate how much internal variability has affected trends in the summer and winter Arctic sea-ice cover using observations since 1979. Our results suggest that the impact of internal variability on sea-ice retreat might be lower than what climate models have estimated.
Lingcheng Li, Yilin Fang, Zhonghua Zheng, Mingjie Shi, Marcos Longo, Charles D. Koven, Jennifer A. Holm, Rosie A. Fisher, Nate G. McDowell, Jeffrey Chambers, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4017–4040, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4017-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4017-2023, 2023
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Accurately modeling plant coexistence in vegetation demographic models like ELM-FATES is challenging. This study proposes a repeatable method that uses machine-learning-based surrogate models to optimize plant trait parameters in ELM-FATES. Our approach significantly improves plant coexistence modeling, thus reducing errors. It has important implications for modeling ecosystem dynamics in response to climate change.
Qi Tang, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Luke P. Van Roekel, Mark A. Taylor, Wuyin Lin, Benjamin R. Hillman, Paul A. Ullrich, Andrew M. Bradley, Oksana Guba, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Tian Zhou, Kai Zhang, Xue Zheng, Yunyan Zhang, Meng Zhang, Mingxuan Wu, Hailong Wang, Cheng Tao, Balwinder Singh, Alan M. Rhoades, Yi Qin, Hong-Yi Li, Yan Feng, Yuying Zhang, Chengzhu Zhang, Charles S. Zender, Shaocheng Xie, Erika L. Roesler, Andrew F. Roberts, Azamat Mametjanov, Mathew E. Maltrud, Noel D. Keen, Robert L. Jacob, Christiane Jablonowski, Owen K. Hughes, Ryan M. Forsyth, Alan V. Di Vittorio, Peter M. Caldwell, Gautam Bisht, Renata B. McCoy, L. Ruby Leung, and David C. Bader
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3953–3995, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3953-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3953-2023, 2023
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High-resolution simulations are superior to low-resolution ones in capturing regional climate changes and climate extremes. However, uniformly reducing the grid size of a global Earth system model is too computationally expensive. We provide an overview of the fully coupled regionally refined model (RRM) of E3SMv2 and document a first-of-its-kind set of climate production simulations using RRM at an economic cost. The key to this success is our innovative hybrid time step method.
Koichi Sakaguchi, L. Ruby Leung, Colin M. Zarzycki, Jihyeon Jang, Seth McGinnis, Bryce E. Harrop, William C. Skamarock, Andrew Gettelman, Chun Zhao, William J. Gutowski, Stephen Leak, and Linda Mearns
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3029–3081, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3029-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3029-2023, 2023
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We document details of the regional climate downscaling dataset produced by a global variable-resolution model. The experiment is unique in that it follows a standard protocol designed for coordinated experiments of regional models. We found negligible influence of post-processing on statistical analysis, importance of simulation quality outside of the target region, and computational challenges that our model code faced due to rapidly changing super computer systems.
Zhe Feng, Joseph Hardin, Hannah C. Barnes, Jianfeng Li, L. Ruby Leung, Adam Varble, and Zhixiao Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2753–2776, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2753-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2753-2023, 2023
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PyFLEXTRKR is a flexible atmospheric feature tracking framework with specific capabilities to track convective clouds from a variety of observations and model simulations. The package has a collection of multi-object identification algorithms and has been optimized for large datasets. This paper describes the algorithms and demonstrates applications for tracking deep convective cells and mesoscale convective systems from observations and model simulations at a wide range of scales.
Zeyu Xue, Paul Ullrich, and Lai-Yung Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1909–1927, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, 2023
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We examine the sensitivity and robustness of conclusions drawn from the PGW method over the NEUS by conducting multiple PGW experiments and varying the perturbation spatial scales and choice of perturbed meteorological variables to provide a guideline for this increasingly popular regional modeling method. Overall, we recommend PGW experiments be performed with perturbations to temperature or the combination of temperature and wind at the gridpoint scale, depending on the research question.
Nicola Maher, Robert C. Jnglin Wills, Pedro DiNezio, Jeremy Klavans, Sebastian Milinski, Sara C. Sanchez, Samantha Stevenson, Malte F. Stuecker, and Xian Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 413–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-413-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-413-2023, 2023
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Understanding whether the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to change in the future is important due to its widespread impacts. By using large ensembles, we can robustly isolate the time-evolving response of ENSO variability in 14 climate models. We find that ENSO variability evolves in a nonlinear fashion in many models and that there are large differences between models. These nonlinear changes imply that ENSO impacts may vary dramatically throughout the 21st century.
Dalei Hao, Gautam Bisht, Karl Rittger, Timbo Stillinger, Edward Bair, Yu Gu, and L. Ruby Leung
The Cryosphere, 17, 673–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-673-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-673-2023, 2023
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We comprehensively evaluated the snow simulations in E3SM land model over the western United States in terms of spatial patterns, temporal correlations, interannual variabilities, elevation gradients, and change with forest cover of snow properties and snow phenology. Our study underscores the need for diagnosing model biases and improving the model representations of snow properties and snow phenology in mountainous areas for more credible simulation and future projection of mountain snowpack.
Chandan Sarangi, Yun Qian, L. Ruby Leung, Yang Zhang, Yufei Zou, and Yuhang Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1769–1783, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1769-2023, 2023
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We show that for air quality, the densely populated eastern US may see even larger impacts of wildfires due to long-distance smoke transport and associated positive climatic impacts, partially compensating the improvements from regulations on anthropogenic emissions. This study highlights the tension between natural and anthropogenic contributions and the non-local nature of air pollution that complicate regulatory strategies for improving future regional air quality for human health.
Dalei Hao, Gautam Bisht, Karl Rittger, Edward Bair, Cenlin He, Huilin Huang, Cheng Dang, Timbo Stillinger, Yu Gu, Hailong Wang, Yun Qian, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 75–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-75-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-75-2023, 2023
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Snow with the highest albedo of land surface plays a vital role in Earth’s surface energy budget and water cycle. This study accounts for the impacts of snow grain shape and mixing state of light-absorbing particles with snow on snow albedo in the E3SM land model. The findings advance our understanding of the role of snow grain shape and mixing state of LAP–snow in land surface processes and offer guidance for improving snow simulations and radiative forcing estimates in Earth system models.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Chang Liao, Donghui Xu, Gautam Bisht, Tian Zhou, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5473–5491, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5473-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5473-2022, 2022
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Sea level rise, storm surge and river discharge can cause coastal backwater effects in downstream sections of rivers, creating critical flood risks. This study simulates the backwater effects using a large-scale river model on a coastal-refined computational mesh. By decomposing the backwater drivers, we revealed their relative importance and long-term variations. Our analysis highlights the increasing strength of backwater effects due to sea level rise and more frequent storm surge.
Yilin Fang, L. Ruby Leung, Charles D. Koven, Gautam Bisht, Matteo Detto, Yanyan Cheng, Nate McDowell, Helene Muller-Landau, S. Joseph Wright, and Jeffrey Q. Chambers
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7879–7901, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7879-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7879-2022, 2022
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We develop a model that integrates an Earth system model with a three-dimensional hydrology model to explicitly resolve hillslope topography and water flow underneath the land surface to understand how local-scale hydrologic processes modulate vegetation along water availability gradients. Our coupled model can be used to improve the understanding of the diverse impact of local heterogeneity and water flux on nutrient availability and plant communities.
Meng Huang, Po-Lun Ma, Nathaniel W. Chaney, Dalei Hao, Gautam Bisht, Megan D. Fowler, Vincent E. Larson, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6371–6384, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6371-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6371-2022, 2022
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The land surface in one grid cell may be diverse in character. This study uses an explicit way to account for that subgrid diversity in a state-of-the-art Earth system model (ESM) and explores its implications for the overlying atmosphere. We find that the shallow clouds are increased significantly with the land surface diversity. Our work highlights the importance of accurately representing the land surface and its interaction with the atmosphere in next-generation ESMs.
Yilin Fang, L. Ruby Leung, Ryan Knox, Charlie Koven, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6385–6398, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6385-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6385-2022, 2022
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Accounting for water movement in the soil and water transport within the plant is important for plant growth in Earth system modeling. We implemented different numerical approaches for a plant hydrodynamic model and compared their impacts on the simulated aboveground biomass (AGB) at single points and globally. We found care should be taken when discretizing the number of soil layers for numerical simulations as it can significantly affect AGB if accuracy and computational costs are of concern.
Akshay Sridhar, Yassine Tissaoui, Simone Marras, Zhaoyi Shen, Charles Kawczynski, Simon Byrne, Kiran Pamnany, Maciej Waruszewski, Thomas H. Gibson, Jeremy E. Kozdon, Valentin Churavy, Lucas C. Wilcox, Francis X. Giraldo, and Tapio Schneider
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6259–6284, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6259-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6259-2022, 2022
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ClimateMachine is a new open-source Julia-language atmospheric modeling code. We describe its limited-area configuration and the model equations, and we demonstrate applicability through benchmark problems, including atmospheric flow in the shallow cumulus regime. We show that the discontinuous Galerkin numerics and model equations allow global conservation of key variables (up to sources and sinks). We assess CPU strong scaling and GPU weak scaling to show its suitability for large simulations.
Sol Kim, L. Ruby Leung, Bin Guan, and John C. H. Chiang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5461–5480, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5461-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5461-2022, 2022
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The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project is a state-of-the-science Earth system model developed by the US Department of Energy (DOE). Understanding how the water cycle behaves in this model is of particular importance to the DOE’s mission. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) – which are crucial to the global water cycle – move vast amounts of water vapor through the sky and produce rain and snow. We find that this model reliably represents atmospheric rivers around the world.
Lingcheng Li, Gautam Bisht, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5489–5510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5489-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5489-2022, 2022
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Land surface heterogeneity plays a critical role in the terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. Our study systematically quantified the effects of four dominant heterogeneity sources on water and energy partitioning via Sobol' indices. We found that atmospheric forcing and land use land cover are the most dominant heterogeneity sources in determining spatial variability of water and energy partitioning. Our findings can help prioritize the future development of land surface models.
Kai Zhang, Wentao Zhang, Hui Wan, Philip J. Rasch, Steven J. Ghan, Richard C. Easter, Xiangjun Shi, Yong Wang, Hailong Wang, Po-Lun Ma, Shixuan Zhang, Jian Sun, Susannah M. Burrows, Manish Shrivastava, Balwinder Singh, Yun Qian, Xiaohong Liu, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Qi Tang, Xue Zheng, Shaocheng Xie, Wuyin Lin, Yan Feng, Minghuai Wang, Jin-Ho Yoon, and L. Ruby Leung
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9129–9160, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9129-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9129-2022, 2022
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Here we analyze the effective aerosol forcing simulated by E3SM version 1 using both century-long free-running and short nudged simulations. The aerosol forcing in E3SMv1 is relatively large compared to other models, mainly due to the large indirect aerosol effect. Aerosol-induced changes in liquid and ice cloud properties in E3SMv1 have a strong correlation. The aerosol forcing estimates in E3SMv1 are sensitive to the parameterization changes in both liquid and ice cloud processes.
Donghui Xu, Gautam Bisht, Khachik Sargsyan, Chang Liao, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5021–5043, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5021-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5021-2022, 2022
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The runoff outputs in Earth system model simulations involve high uncertainty, which needs to be constrained by parameter calibration. In this work, we used a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework to efficiently calibrate the runoff-generation processes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model v1 at a global scale. The model performance was improved compared to the default parameter after calibration, and the associated parametric uncertainty was significantly constrained.
Yun Lin, Jiwen Fan, Pengfei Li, Lai-yung Ruby Leung, Paul J. DeMott, Lexie Goldberger, Jennifer Comstock, Ying Liu, Jong-Hoon Jeong, and Jason Tomlinson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6749–6771, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6749-2022, 2022
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How sea spray aerosols may affect cloud and precipitation over the region by acting as ice-nucleating particles (INPs) is unknown. We explored the effects of INPs from marine aerosols on orographic cloud and precipitation for an atmospheric river event observed during the 2015 ACAPEX field campaign. The marine INPs enhance the formation of ice and snow, leading to less shallow warm clouds but more mixed-phase and deep clouds. This work suggests models need to consider the impacts of marine INPs.
Pinya Wang, Yang Yang, Huimin Li, Lei Chen, Ruijun Dang, Daokai Xue, Baojie Li, Jianping Tang, L. Ruby Leung, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4705–4719, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4705-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4705-2022, 2022
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China is now suffering from both severe ozone (O3) pollution and heat events. We highlight that North China Plain is the hot spot of the co-occurrences of extremes in O3 and high temperatures in China. Such coupled extremes exhibit an increasing trend during 2014–2019 and will continue to increase until the middle of this century. And the coupled extremes impose more severe health impacts to human than O3 pollution occurring alone because of elevated O3 levels and temperatures.
Po-Lun Ma, Bryce E. Harrop, Vincent E. Larson, Richard B. Neale, Andrew Gettelman, Hugh Morrison, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, Stephen A. Klein, Mark D. Zelinka, Yuying Zhang, Yun Qian, Jin-Ho Yoon, Christopher R. Jones, Meng Huang, Sheng-Lun Tai, Balwinder Singh, Peter A. Bogenschutz, Xue Zheng, Wuyin Lin, Johannes Quaas, Hélène Chepfer, Michael A. Brunke, Xubin Zeng, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Samson Hagos, Zhibo Zhang, Hua Song, Xiaohong Liu, Michael S. Pritchard, Hui Wan, Jingyu Wang, Qi Tang, Peter M. Caldwell, Jiwen Fan, Larry K. Berg, Jerome D. Fast, Mark A. Taylor, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Shaocheng Xie, Philip J. Rasch, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2881–2916, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2881-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2881-2022, 2022
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An alternative set of parameters for E3SM Atmospheric Model version 1 has been developed based on a tuning strategy that focuses on clouds. When clouds in every regime are improved, other aspects of the model are also improved, even though they are not the direct targets for calibration. The recalibrated model shows a lower sensitivity to anthropogenic aerosols and surface warming, suggesting potential improvements to the simulated climate in the past and future.
Sally S.-C. Wang, Yun Qian, L. Ruby Leung, and Yang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3445–3468, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3445-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3445-2022, 2022
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This study develops an interpretable machine learning (ML) model predicting monthly PM2.5 fire emission over the contiguous US at 0.25° resolution and compares the prediction skills of the ML and process-based models. The comparison facilitates attributions of model biases and better understanding of the strengths and uncertainties in the two types of models at regional scales, for informing future model development and their applications in fire emission projection.
Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Hong-Yi Li, Zhenduo Zhu, Zeli Tan, and L. Ruby Leung
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 929–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-929-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-929-2022, 2022
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Existing riverbed sediment particle size data are sparsely available at individual sites. We develop a continuous map of median riverbed sediment particle size over the contiguous US corresponding to millions of river segments based on the existing observations and machine learning methods. This map is useful for research in large-scale river sediment using model- and data-driven approaches, teaching environmental and earth system sciences, planning and managing floodplain zones, etc.
Hong-Yi Li, Zeli Tan, Hongbo Ma, Zhenduo Zhu, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Senlin Zhu, Sagy Cohen, Tian Zhou, Donghui Xu, and L. Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 665–688, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-665-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-665-2022, 2022
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We introduce a new multi-process river sediment module for Earth system models. Application and validation over the contiguous US indicate a satisfactory model performance over large river systems, including those heavily regulated by reservoirs. This new sediment module enables future modeling of the transportation and transformation of carbon and nutrients carried by the fine sediment along the river–ocean continuum to close the global carbon and nutrient cycles.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kalyn Dorheim, Michael Wehner, and Ruby Leung
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1427–1501, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1427-2021, 2021
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We address the question of how large an initial condition ensemble of climate model simulations should be if we are concerned with accurately projecting future changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We find that for most cases (and both models considered), an ensemble of 20–25 members is sufficient for many extreme metrics, spatial scales and time horizons. This may leave computational resources to tackle other uncertainties in climate model simulations with our ensembles.
Dalei Hao, Gautam Bisht, Yu Gu, Wei-Liang Lee, Kuo-Nan Liou, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6273–6289, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6273-2021, 2021
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Topography exerts significant influence on the incoming solar radiation at the land surface. This study incorporated a well-validated sub-grid topographic parameterization in E3SM land model (ELM) version 1.0. The results demonstrate that sub-grid topography has non-negligible effects on surface energy budget, snow cover, and surface temperature over the Tibetan Plateau and that the ELM simulations are sensitive to season, elevation, and spatial scale.
Yongkang Xue, Tandong Yao, Aaron A. Boone, Ismaila Diallo, Ye Liu, Xubin Zeng, William K. M. Lau, Shiori Sugimoto, Qi Tang, Xiaoduo Pan, Peter J. van Oevelen, Daniel Klocke, Myung-Seo Koo, Tomonori Sato, Zhaohui Lin, Yuhei Takaya, Constantin Ardilouze, Stefano Materia, Subodh K. Saha, Retish Senan, Tetsu Nakamura, Hailan Wang, Jing Yang, Hongliang Zhang, Mei Zhao, Xin-Zhong Liang, J. David Neelin, Frederic Vitart, Xin Li, Ping Zhao, Chunxiang Shi, Weidong Guo, Jianping Tang, Miao Yu, Yun Qian, Samuel S. P. Shen, Yang Zhang, Kun Yang, Ruby Leung, Yuan Qiu, Daniele Peano, Xin Qi, Yanling Zhan, Michael A. Brunke, Sin Chan Chou, Michael Ek, Tianyi Fan, Hong Guan, Hai Lin, Shunlin Liang, Helin Wei, Shaocheng Xie, Haoran Xu, Weiping Li, Xueli Shi, Paulo Nobre, Yan Pan, Yi Qin, Jeff Dozier, Craig R. Ferguson, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Qing Bao, Jinming Feng, Jinkyu Hong, Songyou Hong, Huilin Huang, Duoying Ji, Zhenming Ji, Shichang Kang, Yanluan Lin, Weiguang Liu, Ryan Muncaster, Patricia de Rosnay, Hiroshi G. Takahashi, Guiling Wang, Shuyu Wang, Weicai Wang, Xu Zhou, and Yuejian Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4465–4494, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021, 2021
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The subseasonal prediction of extreme hydroclimate events such as droughts/floods has remained stubbornly low for years. This paper presents a new international initiative which, for the first time, introduces spring land surface temperature anomalies over high mountains to improve precipitation prediction through remote effects of land–atmosphere interactions. More than 40 institutions worldwide are participating in this effort. The experimental protocol and preliminary results are presented.
Jianfeng Li, Zhe Feng, Yun Qian, and L. Ruby Leung
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 827–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-827-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-827-2021, 2021
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Deep convection has different properties at different scales. We develop a 4 km h−1 observational data product of mesoscale convective systems and isolated deep convection in the United States from 2004–2017. We find that both types of convective systems contribute significantly to precipitation east of the Rocky Mountains but with distinct spatiotemporal characteristics. The data product will be useful for observational analyses and model evaluations of convection events at different scales.
Kurt C. Solander, Brent D. Newman, Alessandro Carioca de Araujo, Holly R. Barnard, Z. Carter Berry, Damien Bonal, Mario Bretfeld, Benoit Burban, Luiz Antonio Candido, Rolando Célleri, Jeffery Q. Chambers, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Matteo Detto, Wouter A. Dorigo, Brent E. Ewers, Savio José Filgueiras Ferreira, Alexander Knohl, L. Ruby Leung, Nate G. McDowell, Gretchen R. Miller, Maria Terezinha Ferreira Monteiro, Georgianne W. Moore, Robinson Negron-Juarez, Scott R. Saleska, Christian Stiegler, Javier Tomasella, and Chonggang Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2303–2322, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2303-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2303-2020, 2020
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We evaluate the soil moisture response in the humid tropics to El Niño during the three most recent super El Niño events. Our estimates are compared to in situ soil moisture estimates that span five continents. We find the strongest and most consistent soil moisture decreases in the Amazon and maritime southeastern Asia, while the most consistent increases occur over eastern Africa. Our results can be used to improve estimates of soil moisture in tropical ecohydrology models at multiple scales.
Zhiyuan Hu, Jianping Huang, Chun Zhao, Yuanyuan Ma, Qinjian Jin, Yun Qian, L. Ruby Leung, Jianrong Bi, and Jianmin Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12709–12730, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12709-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12709-2019, 2019
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This study investigates aerosol chemical compositions and relative contributions to total aerosols in the western US. The results show that trans-Pacific aerosols have a maximum concentration in the boreal spring, with the greatest contribution from dust. Over western North America, the trans-Pacific aerosols dominate the column-integrated aerosol mass and number concentration. However, near the surface, aerosols mainly originated from local emissions.
Mingchen Ma, Yang Gao, Yuhang Wang, Shaoqing Zhang, L. Ruby Leung, Cheng Liu, Shuxiao Wang, Bin Zhao, Xing Chang, Hang Su, Tianqi Zhang, Lifang Sheng, Xiaohong Yao, and Huiwang Gao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12195–12207, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12195-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12195-2019, 2019
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Ozone pollution has become severe in China, and extremely high ozone episodes occurred in summer 2017 over the North China Plain. While meteorology impacts are clear, we find that enhanced biogenic emissions, previously ignored by the community, driven by high vapor pressure deficit, land cover change and urban landscape contribute substantially to ozone formation. This study has significant implications for ozone pollution control with more frequent heat waves and urbanization growth in future.
Chun Zhao, Mingyue Xu, Yu Wang, Meixin Zhang, Jianping Guo, Zhiyuan Hu, L. Ruby Leung, Michael Duda, and William Skamarock
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2707-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2707-2019, 2019
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Simulations at global uniform and variable resolutions share similar characteristics of precipitation and wind in the refined region. The experiments reveal the significant impacts of resolution on simulating the distribution and intensity of precipitation and updrafts. This study provides evidence supporting the use of convection-permitting global variable-resolution simulations to study extreme precipitation.
Junxi Zhang, Yang Gao, L. Ruby Leung, Kun Luo, Huan Liu, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jianren Fan, Xiaohong Yao, Huiwang Gao, and Tatsuya Nagashima
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 887–900, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-887-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-887-2019, 2019
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ACCMIP simulations were used to study NOy deposition over East Asia in the future. Both dry and wet NOy deposition show significant decreases in the 2100s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 due to large anthropogenic emission reduction. The changes in climate only significantly affect the wet deposition primarily linked to changes in precipitation. Over the coastal seas of China, weaker transport of NOy from land due to emission reduction infers a larger impact from shipping and lightning emissions.
Ge Zhang, Yang Gao, Wenju Cai, L. Ruby Leung, Shuxiao Wang, Bin Zhao, Minghuai Wang, Huayao Shan, Xiaohong Yao, and Huiwang Gao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 565–576, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-565-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-565-2019, 2019
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Based on observed data, this study reveals a distinct seesaw feature of abnormally high and low PM2.5 concentrations in December 2015 and January 2016 over North China. The mechanism of the seesaw pattern was found to be linked to a super El Niño and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). During the mature phase of El Niño in December 2015, the weakened East Asian winter monsoon favors strong haze formation; however, the circulation pattern was reversed in the next month due to the phase change of the AO.
Junxi Zhang, Yang Gao, Kun Luo, L. Ruby Leung, Yang Zhang, Kai Wang, and Jianren Fan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9861–9877, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9861-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9861-2018, 2018
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We used a regional model to investigate the impact of atmosphere with high temperature and low wind speed on ozone concentration. When these compound events (heat waves and stagnant weather) occur simultaneously, a striking ozone enhancement is revealed. This type of compound event is projected to increase more dominantly compared to single events in the future over the US, Europe, and China, implying the importance of reducing emissions in order to alleviate the impact from the compound events.
Christine A. Shields, Jonathan J. Rutz, Lai-Yung Leung, F. Martin Ralph, Michael Wehner, Brian Kawzenuk, Juan M. Lora, Elizabeth McClenny, Tashiana Osborne, Ashley E. Payne, Paul Ullrich, Alexander Gershunov, Naomi Goldenson, Bin Guan, Yun Qian, Alexandre M. Ramos, Chandan Sarangi, Scott Sellars, Irina Gorodetskaya, Karthik Kashinath, Vitaliy Kurlin, Kelly Mahoney, Grzegorz Muszynski, Roger Pierce, Aneesh C. Subramanian, Ricardo Tome, Duane Waliser, Daniel Walton, Gary Wick, Anna Wilson, David Lavers, Prabhat, Allison Collow, Harinarayan Krishnan, Gudrun Magnusdottir, and Phu Nguyen
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2455–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2455-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2455-2018, 2018
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ARTMIP (Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project) is a community effort with the explicit goal of understanding the uncertainties, and the implications of those uncertainties, in atmospheric river science solely due to detection algorithm. ARTMIP strives to quantify these differences and provide guidance on appropriate algorithmic choices for the science question posed. Project goals, experimental design, and preliminary results are provided.
Kai Zhang, Philip J. Rasch, Mark A. Taylor, Hui Wan, Ruby Leung, Po-Lun Ma, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Jon Wolfe, Wuyin Lin, Balwinder Singh, Susannah Burrows, Jin-Ho Yoon, Hailong Wang, Yun Qian, Qi Tang, Peter Caldwell, and Shaocheng Xie
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1971–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1971-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1971-2018, 2018
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The conservation of total water is an important numerical feature for global Earth system models. Even small conservation problems in the water budget can lead to systematic errors in century-long simulations for sea level rise projection. This study quantifies and reduces various sources of water conservation error in the atmosphere component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model.
Randal D. Koster, Alan K. Betts, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Marc Bierkens, Katrina E. Bennett, Stephen J. Déry, Jason P. Evans, Rong Fu, Felipe Hernandez, L. Ruby Leung, Xu Liang, Muhammad Masood, Hubert Savenije, Guiling Wang, and Xing Yuan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3777–3798, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3777-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3777-2017, 2017
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Large-scale hydrological variability can affect society in profound ways; floods and droughts, for example, often cause major damage and hardship. A recent gathering of hydrologists at a symposium to honor the career of Professor Eric Wood motivates the present survey of recent research on this variability. The surveyed literature and the illustrative examples provided in the paper show that research into hydrological variability continues to be strong, vibrant, and multifaceted.
Shi Zhong, Yun Qian, Chun Zhao, Ruby Leung, Hailong Wang, Ben Yang, Jiwen Fan, Huiping Yan, Xiu-Qun Yang, and Dongqing Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5439–5457, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5439-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5439-2017, 2017
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An online climate–chemistry coupled model (WRF-Chem) is integrated for 5 years at cloud-permitting scale to quantify the impacts of urbanization-induced changes in land cover and pollutants emission on regional climate in the Yangtze River Delta region in eastern China. Urbanization over this region increases the frequency of extreme precipitation and heat wave in summer. The results could help China government in making policies in mitigating the environmental impact of urbanization.
Xiangyu Luo, Hong-Yi Li, L. Ruby Leung, Teklu K. Tesfa, Augusto Getirana, Fabrice Papa, and Laura L. Hess
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1233–1259, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1233-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1233-2017, 2017
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This study shows that alleviating vegetation-caused biases in DEM data, refining channel cross-sectional geometry and Manning roughness coefficients, as well as accounting for backwater effects can effectively improve the modeling of streamflow, river stages and flood extent in the Amazon Basin. The obtained understanding could be helpful to hydrological modeling in basins with evident inundation, which has important implications for improving land–atmosphere interactions in Earth system models.
Teklu K. Tesfa and Lai-Yung Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 873–888, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-873-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-873-2017, 2017
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Motivated by the significant topographic influence on land surface processes, this study explored two methods to discretize watersheds into two types of subgrid structures to capture spatial heterogeneity for land surface models. Adopting geomorphologic concepts in watershed discretization yields improved capability in capturing subgrid topographic heterogeneity, which also allowed climatic and land cover variability to be better represented with a nominal increase in computational requirements.
Jiwen Fan, L. Ruby Leung, Daniel Rosenfeld, and Paul J. DeMott
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1017–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1017-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1017-2017, 2017
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How orographic mixed-phase clouds respond to changes in cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nucleating particles (INPs) is highly uncertain. We conducted this study to improve understanding of these processes. We found a new mechanism through which CCN can invigorate orographic mixed-phase clouds and drastically intensify snow precipitation when CCN concentrations are high. Our findings have very important implications for orographic precipitation in polluted regions.
Reindert J. Haarsma, Malcolm J. Roberts, Pier Luigi Vidale, Catherine A. Senior, Alessio Bellucci, Qing Bao, Ping Chang, Susanna Corti, Neven S. Fučkar, Virginie Guemas, Jost von Hardenberg, Wilco Hazeleger, Chihiro Kodama, Torben Koenigk, L. Ruby Leung, Jian Lu, Jing-Jia Luo, Jiafu Mao, Matthew S. Mizielinski, Ryo Mizuta, Paulo Nobre, Masaki Satoh, Enrico Scoccimarro, Tido Semmler, Justin Small, and Jin-Song von Storch
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4185–4208, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016, 2016
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Recent progress in computing power has enabled climate models to simulate more processes in detail and on a smaller scale. Here we present a common protocol for these high-resolution runs that will foster the analysis and understanding of the impact of model resolution on the simulated climate. These runs will also serve as a more reliable source for assessing climate risks that are associated with small-scale weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones.
Bin Zhao, Kuo-Nan Liou, Yu Gu, Cenlin He, Wee-Liang Lee, Xing Chang, Qinbin Li, Shuxiao Wang, Hsien-Liang R. Tseng, Lai-Yung R. Leung, and Jiming Hao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 5841–5852, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5841-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5841-2016, 2016
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We examine the impact of buildings on surface solar fluxes in Beijing by accounting for their 3-D structures. We find that inclusion of buildings changes surface solar fluxes by within ±1 W m−2, ±1–10 W m−2, and up to ±100 W m−2 at grid resolutions of 4 km, 800 m, and 90 m, respectively. We can resolve pairs of positive-negative flux deviations on different sides of buildings at ≤ 800 m resolutions. We should treat building-effect on solar fluxes differently in models with different resolutions.
Zhiyuan Hu, Chun Zhao, Jianping Huang, L. Ruby Leung, Yun Qian, Hongbin Yu, Lei Huang, and Olga V. Kalashnikova
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1725–1746, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1725-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1725-2016, 2016
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This study conducts the simulation of WRF-Chem with the quasi-global configuration for 2010–2014, and evaluates the simulation with multiple observation datasets for the first time. This study demonstrates that the WRF-Chem quasi-global simulation can be used for investigating trans-Pacific transport of aerosols and providing reasonable inflow chemical boundaries for the western USA to further understand the impact of transported pollutants on the regional air quality and climate.
C. He, K.-N. Liou, Y. Takano, R. Zhang, M. Levy Zamora, P. Yang, Q. Li, and L. R. Leung
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11967–11980, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11967-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11967-2015, 2015
W.-L. Lee, Y. Gu, K. N. Liou, L. R. Leung, and H.-H. Hsu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5405–5413, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5405-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5405-2015, 2015
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This paper investigates 3-D mountain effects on solar flux distributions and their impact on surface hydrology over the western United States, specifically the Rocky Mountains and the Sierra Nevada, using the global CCSM4 (CAM4/CLM4) with a 0.23°×0.31° resolution for simulations over 6 years. We show that deviations in the net surface fluxes are not only affected by 3-D mountains but also influenced by feedbacks of cloud and snow in association with the long-term simulations.
Y. Fang, C. Liu, and L. R. Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 781–789, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-781-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-781-2015, 2015
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1. A gradient projection method was used to reduce the computation time of carbon-nitrogen spin-up processes in CLM4.
2. Point-scale simulations showed that the cyclic stability of total carbon for some cases differs from that of the periodic atmospheric forcing, and some cases even showed instability.
3. The instability issue is resolved after the hydrology scheme in CLM4 is replaced with a flow model for variably saturated porous media.
C. Zhao, Z. Hu, Y. Qian, L. Ruby Leung, J. Huang, M. Huang, J. Jin, M. G. Flanner, R. Zhang, H. Wang, H. Yan, Z. Lu, and D. G. Streets
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11475–11491, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11475-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11475-2014, 2014
T. K. Tesfa, H.-Y. Li, L. R. Leung, M. Huang, Y. Ke, Y. Sun, and Y. Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 947–963, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-947-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-947-2014, 2014
J. Fan, L. R. Leung, P. J. DeMott, J. M. Comstock, B. Singh, D. Rosenfeld, J. M. Tomlinson, A. White, K. A. Prather, P. Minnis, J. K. Ayers, and Q. Min
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 81–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-81-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-81-2014, 2014
Y. Sun, Z. Hou, M. Huang, F. Tian, and L. Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4995–5011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4995-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4995-2013, 2013
K. N. Liou, Y. Gu, L. R. Leung, W. L. Lee, and R. G. Fovell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11709–11721, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11709-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11709-2013, 2013
N. Voisin, L. Liu, M. Hejazi, T. Tesfa, H. Li, M. Huang, Y. Liu, and L. R. Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4555–4575, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4555-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4555-2013, 2013
Y. Fang, M. Huang, C. Liu, H. Li, and L. R. Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1977–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1977-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1977-2013, 2013
C. Zhao, S. Chen, L. R. Leung, Y. Qian, J. F. Kok, R. A. Zaveri, and J. Huang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10733–10753, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10733-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10733-2013, 2013
N. Voisin, H. Li, D. Ward, M. Huang, M. Wigmosta, and L. R. Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3605–3622, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3605-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3605-2013, 2013
Y. Ke, L. R. Leung, M. Huang, and H. Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1609–1622, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1609-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1609-2013, 2013
H. Wan, P. J. Rasch, K. Zhang, J. Kazil, and L. R. Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 861–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-861-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-861-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Climate and Earth System | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Polar winter climate change: strong local effects from sea ice loss, widespread consequences from warming seas
Limitations in the use of atmospheric CO2 observations to directly infer changes in the length of the biospheric carbon uptake period
Volcanic emission estimates from the inversion of ACTRIS lidar observations and their use for quantitative dispersion modeling
Emission inventory development for spatiotemporal release of vanadium from anthropogenic sources in China
Surface temperature effects of recent reductions in shipping SO2 emissions are within internal variability
Highly resolved satellite-remote-sensing-based land-use-change inventory yields weaker surface-albedo-induced global cooling
Investigating the limiting aircraft-design-dependent and environmental factors of persistent contrail formation
Measurement report: Can zenith wet delay from GNSS “see” atmospheric turbulence? Insights from case studies across diverse climate zones
Effects of 2010–2045 climate change on ozone levels in China under a carbon neutrality scenario: key meteorological parameters and processes
Cloud-radiation interactions amplify ozone pollution in a warming climate
Comment on "Can uncertainty in climate sensitivity be narrowed further?" by Sherwood and Forest (2024)
The Biogeophysical Effects of Carbon Fertilization of the Terrestrial Biosphere
Too cold, too saturated? Evaluating climate models at the gateway to the Arctic
Modelled surface climate response to effusive Icelandic volcanic eruptions: sensitivity to season and size
Contrasting the roles of regional anthropogenic aerosols from the western and eastern hemispheres in driving the 1980–2020 Pacific multi-decadal variations
A new method for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions in climate models
Climate variability can outweigh the influence of climate mean changes for extreme precipitation under global warming
Using a region-specific ice-nucleating particle parameterization improves the representation of Arctic clouds in a global climate model
Small emission sources in aggregate disproportionately account for a large majority of total methane emissions from the US oil and gas sector
Technical note: Recommendations for diagnosing cloud feedbacks and rapid cloud adjustments using cloud radiative kernels
The importance of stratocumulus clouds for projected warming patterns and circulation changes
Influence of modes of climate variability on stratospheric gravity waves in the tropics using Radio Occultation and Reanalysis Data
Satellite quantification of methane emissions from South American countries: a high-resolution inversion of TROPOMI and GOSAT observations
To what extent does the CO2 diurnal cycle impact flux estimates derived from global and regional inversions?
Can general circulation models (GCMs) represent cloud liquid water path adjustments to aerosol–cloud interactions?
Quantifying cloud masking in a single column
Constraining net long-term climate feedback from satellite-observed internal variability possible by the mid-2030s
Dry and warm conditions in Australia exacerbated by aerosol reduction in China
Investigation of the characteristics of low-level jets over North America in a convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting simulation
Impacts of tropical cyclone–heat wave compound events on surface ozone in eastern China: comparison between the Yangtze River and Pearl River deltas
The 2023 global warming spike was driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation
Present-day methane shortwave absorption mutes surface warming relative to preindustrial conditions
A novel method for detecting tropopause structures based on the bi-Gaussian function
Unraveling the discrepancies between Eulerian and Lagrangian moisture tracking models in monsoon- and westerly-dominated basins of the Tibetan Plateau
Increasing aerosol direct effect despite declining global emissions in MPI-ESM1.2
Multi-scale variability of southeastern Australian wind resources
Parameterizations for global thundercloud corona discharge distributions
The importance of an informed choice of CO2-equivalence metrics for contrail avoidance
Relative humidity over ice as a key variable for Northern Hemisphere midlatitude tropopause inversion layers
Technical note: Posterior uncertainty estimation via a Monte Carlo procedure specialized for 4D-Var data assimilation
Understanding the role of contrails and contrail cirrus in climate change: a global perspective
Interannual variations in Siberian carbon uptake and carbon release period
Using historical temperature to constrain the climate sensitivity, the transient climate response, and aerosol-induced cooling
Future reduction of cold extremes over East Asia due to thermodynamic and dynamic warming
General circulation models simulate negative liquid water path–droplet number correlations, but anthropogenic aerosols still increase simulated liquid water path
Global scenarios of anthropogenic mercury emissions
Impact of Asian aerosols on the summer monsoon strongly modulated by regional precipitation biases
Assessing methane emissions from collapsing Venezuelan oil production using TROPOMI
Simulation of ozone–vegetation coupling and feedback in China using multiple ozone damage schemes
Opinion: Can uncertainty in climate sensitivity be narrowed further?
Tuomas Naakka, Daniel Köhler, Kalle Nordling, Petri Räisänen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Bjørn H. Samset, Victoria A. Sinclair, Jennie L. Thomas, and Annica M. L. Ekman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8127–8145, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8127-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8127-2025, 2025
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The effects of warmer sea surface temperatures and decreasing sea ice cover on polar climates have been studied using four climate models with identical prescribed changes in sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover. The models predict similar changes in air temperature and precipitation in the polar regions in a warmer climate with less sea ice. However, the models disagree on how the atmospheric circulation, i.e. the large-scale winds, will change with warmer temperatures and less sea ice.
Theertha Kariyathan, Ana Bastos, Markus Reichstein, Wouter Peters, and Julia Marshall
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7863–7878, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7863-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7863-2025, 2025
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The carbon uptake period (CUP) is the time period when land absorbs more CO2 than it emits. While atmospheric CO2 mole fraction measurements can be used to assess CUP changes, atmospheric transport and asynchronous timing across regions reduce the accuracy of the estimates. Forward model experiments show that only ~ 50 % of prescribed shifts in CUP timing applied to surface fluxes (ΔCUPNEE) are captured in simulated CO2 mole fraction data at monitoring sites like the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory.
Anna Kampouri, Vassilis Amiridis, Thanasis Georgiou, Stavros Solomos, Anna Gialitaki, Maria Tsichla, Michael Rennie, Simona Scollo, and Prodromos Zanis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7343–7368, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7343-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7343-2025, 2025
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This study proposes a novel inverse modeling framework coupled with remote sensing data for improving volcanic ash dispersion forecasts, essential for aviation safety. By integrating FLEXPART dispersion model outputs with ground-based ACTRIS lidar observations, the approach estimates Etna's volcanic particle emissions and highlights a significant enhancement in the forecast accuracy.
Han Zhang, Baogang Zhang, Bo Jiang, Qimin Li, Xuewen Hu, and Yi Xing
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5577–5589, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5577-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5577-2025, 2025
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We developed vanadium emission inventories of anthropogenic sources in China for 2015–2019. We identified five major emission sources: coal combustion, oil burning, transportation, industrial manufacture, and waste handling. Emission outputs were calculated by integrating the emission factors and activity levels of vanadium-related processes. Our results identified the key emitters and highlighted the spatial and temporal patterns of vanadium release.
Duncan Watson-Parris, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Geeta Persad, Massimo A. Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Carley E. Iles, Manoj Joshi, Marianne T. Lund, Daniel McCoy, Daniel M. Westervelt, Andrew I. L. Williams, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4443–4454, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, 2025
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In 2020, regulations by the International Maritime Organization aimed to reduce aerosol emissions from ships. These aerosols previously had a cooling effect, which the regulations might reduce, revealing more greenhouse gas warming. Here we find that, while there is regional warming, the global 2020–2040 temperature rise is only +0.03 °C. This small change is difficult to distinguish from natural climate variability, indicating the regulations have had a limited effect on observed warming to date.
Xiaohu Jian, Xiaodong Zhang, Xinrui Liu, Kaijie Chen, Tao Huang, Shu Tao, Junfeng Liu, Hong Gao, Yuan Zhao, Ruiyu Zhugu, and Jianmin Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4251–4268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4251-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4251-2025, 2025
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We implemented a new global land-use-change (LUC) dataset from 1982 to 2010 into a compact earth system model and carried out extensive multiple model scenario simulations. Our result reveals that the global radiative forcing (RF) induced by LUC driving surface albedo change is −0.12 W m−2, 20 % lower than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and vegetation changes play a key role in RF evolution, which provides an important reference for the assessment of earth energy balance.
Liam Megill and Volker Grewe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4131–4149, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4131-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4131-2025, 2025
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This study uses ERA5 data to better understand the relative importance of the factors limiting persistent contrail formation. We develop climatological relationships to estimate potential persistent contrail formation for existing as well as future aircraft and propulsion system designs. We identify latitudes and pressure levels where the introduction of novel aircraft designs would result in significant changes in potential persistent contrail formation compared to existing conventional aircraft.
Gaël Kermarrec, Xavier Calbet, Zhiguo Deng, and Cintia Carbajal Henken
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3567–3581, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3567-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3567-2025, 2025
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Atmospheric delays affect global navigation satellite system (GNSS) signals. This study analyses the wet delay, a variable component caused by atmospheric water vapor, using a novel filtering method to examine small-scale turbulent variations. Case studies at five global stations revealed daily and seasonal turbulence patterns. This research will improve water vapour and cloud models, enhance nowcasting, and refine stochastic modelling for GNSS and very long baseline interferometry.
Ling Kang, Hong Liao, Ke Li, Xu Yue, Yang Yang, and Ye Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3603–3621, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3603-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3603-2025, 2025
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Using the model of Global Change and Air Pollution version 2.0, climate change over 2010–2045 under a carbon neutrality scenario is simulated to increase summertime maximum daily 8 h average ozone (O3) levels in eastern China, the North China Plain, and the Yangtze River Delta by 2.3, 4.7, and 3.0 ppbv, respectively. Temperature, radiation, and relative humidity are the key meteorological parameters and net chemical production is the key process in climate-driven O3 increases in eastern China.
Shuyu Zhao, Tian Feng, Xuexi Tie, Biao Tian, Xiao Hu, Bo Hu, Dong Yang, Sinan Gu, and Minghu Ding
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-682, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-682, 2025
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This study investigated how cloud-radiation interactions influence ozone formation in a warming climate. Using measurements, reanalysis data and models, we found that cloud-radiation interactions can worsen O3 pollution and climate warming will amplify the influence. We highlight that climate change will pose greater challenges for China’s O3 pollution prevention and control, and actions such as reducing O3 precursors emissions and mitigating climate change are urgently needed.
Nicholas Lewis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1179, 2025
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The Opinion article that this Comment concerns challenged a 2022 study by this Comment's author that found a narrower and lower ECS level than a very influential 2020 study that had the same lead author as the Opinion article. This Comment shows that claims made in the Opinion article about that 2022 study are not true, explains why the Subjective Bayesian statistical methods favoured in the Opinion article are unreliable, and discusses structural uncertainties in climate models.
Robert James Allen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-32, 2025
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CMIP6 models are analyzed to quantify the biogeophysical (non-carbon cycle) and biogeochemical (enhanced carbon storage) effects of carbon fertilization at the time of CO2 quadrupling. The biogeophysical effects lead to relatively weak warming (0.16 ± 0.09 K ) largely due to decreases in surface latent heat flux associated with reduced canopy transpiration. Biogeochemical cooling associated with enhanced land carbon storage dominates at -1.38 K (-1.92 to -0.84 K).
Felix Pithan, Ann Kristin Naumann, and Marion Maturilli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3269–3285, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3269-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3269-2025, 2025
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Representing the exchange of air masses between the Arctic and mid-latitudes and the associated cloud formation is difficult for climate models. We compare climate model output to temperature and humidity measurements from weather balloons to provide suggestions for model improvements. Cold biases mostly occur in air that is exported from the Arctic. Models that compute the number of ice particles in a cloud better represent humidity than models that assume a fixed number of ice particles.
Tómas Zoëga, Trude Storelvmo, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2989–3010, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2989-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2989-2025, 2025
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We use an Earth system model to systematically investigate the climate response to high-latitude effusive volcanic eruptions as a function of eruption season and size, with a focus on the Arctic. We find that different seasons strongly modulate the climate response, with Arctic surface warming observed in winter and cooling in summer. Additionally, as eruptions increase in terms of sulfur dioxide emissions, the climate response becomes increasingly insensitive to variations in emission strength.
Chenrui Diao, Yangyang Xu, Aixue Hu, and Zhili Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2167–2180, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2167-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2167-2025, 2025
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Industrial aerosol increases in Asia and reductions in North America and Europe in 1980–2020 influenced climate changes over the Pacific Ocean differently. Asian aerosols caused El Niño-like temperature patterns and slightly weakened the natural variation in the North Pacific, while reduced emissions of western countries led to extensive warming in middle–high latitudes of the North Pacific. Human impacts on the Pacific climate may change when emission reduction occurs over Asia in the future.
Brandon M. Duran, Casey J. Wall, Nicholas J. Lutsko, Takuro Michibata, Po-Lun Ma, Yi Qin, Margaret L. Duffy, Brian Medeiros, and Matvey Debolskiy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2123–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2123-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2123-2025, 2025
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We use satellite simulator data generated by global climate models to investigate how aerosol particles impact the radiative properties of liquid clouds. Specifically, we quantify the radiative perturbations arising from aerosol-driven changes in the number density of cloud droplets, the vertically integrated cloud water mass, and the cloud amount. Our results show that, in models, aerosol effects on the number density of cloud droplets contribute the most to anthropogenic climate forcing.
Kalle Nordling, Nora L. S. Fahrenbach, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1659–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1659-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1659-2025, 2025
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People experience daily weather, not changes in monthly averages. We investigate the likelihood of events, which occurred once every 10 years in the pre-industrial era. We analyze how summertime precipitation and daily maximum temperature events evolve. Our focus is on understanding the role of day-to-day variability in the change in the number of extreme weather days. We find that in most regions, a change in variability is the primary driver for change in summertime extreme precipitation.
Astrid B. Gjelsvik, Robert O. David, Tim Carlsen, Franziska Hellmuth, Stefan Hofer, Zachary McGraw, Harald Sodemann, and Trude Storelvmo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1617–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1617-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1617-2025, 2025
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Ice formation in clouds has a substantial impact on radiation and precipitation and must be realistically simulated in order to understand present and future Arctic climate. Rare aerosols known as ice-nucleating particles can play an important role in cloud ice formation, but their representation in global climate models is not well suited for the Arctic. In this study, the simulation of cloud phase is improved when the representation of these particles is constrained by Arctic observations.
James P. Williams, Mark Omara, Anthony Himmelberger, Daniel Zavala-Araiza, Katlyn MacKay, Joshua Benmergui, Maryann Sargent, Steven C. Wofsy, Steven P. Hamburg, and Ritesh Gautam
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1513–1532, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1513-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1513-2025, 2025
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We utilize peer-reviewed facility-level oil and gas methane emission rate data gathered in prior work to estimate the relative contributions of methane sources emitting at different emission rates in the United States. We find that the majority of total methane emissions in the US oil and gas sector stem from a large number of small sources emitting in aggregate, corroborating findings from several other studies.
Mark D. Zelinka, Li-Wei Chao, Timothy A. Myers, Yi Qin, and Stephen A. Klein
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1477–1495, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1477-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1477-2025, 2025
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Clouds lie at the heart of uncertainty in both climate sensitivity and radiative forcing, making it imperative to properly diagnose their radiative effects. Here we provide a recommended methodology and code base for the community to use in performing such diagnoses using cloud radiative kernels. We show that properly accounting for changes in obscuration of lower-level clouds by upper-level clouds is important for accurate diagnosis and attribution of cloud feedbacks and adjustments.
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Peer Nowack
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-221, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-221, 2025
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We explore how Pacific low-level clouds influence projections of regional climate change by adjusting a climate model to enhance low cloud response to surface temperatures. We find significant changes in projected warming patterns and circulation changes, under increased CO2 conditions. Our findings are supported by similar relationships across state-of-the-art climate models. These results highlight the importance of accurately representing clouds for predicting regional climate change impacts.
Toyese Tunde Ayorinde, Cristiano Max Wrasse, Hisao Takahashi, Luiz Fernando Sapucci, Cosme Alexandre Oliveira Barros Figueiredo, Diego Barros, Ligia Alves da Silva, Patrick Essien, and Anderson Vestena Bilibio
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4083, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4083, 2025
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We studied how the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) interacts with atmospheric gravity waves high in the sky and how global climate patterns like El Niño affect them. Using RO, ERA5, and NCEP reanalysis data, we found that the ITCZ shifts with seasons but stays strong year-round, influencing weather and energy flow. Our findings show how climate patterns shape weather systems and help predict changes, improving understanding of the atmosphere and its effects on global climate.
Sarah E. Hancock, Daniel J. Jacob, Zichong Chen, Hannah Nesser, Aaron Davitt, Daniel J. Varon, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Nicholas Balasus, Lucas A. Estrada, María Cazorla, Laura Dawidowski, Sebastián Diez, James D. East, Elise Penn, Cynthia A. Randles, John Worden, Ilse Aben, Robert J. Parker, and Joannes D. Maasakkers
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 797–817, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-797-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-797-2025, 2025
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We quantify 2021 methane emissions in South America at up to 25 km × 25 km resolution using satellite methane observations. We find a 55 % upward adjustment to anthropogenic emission inventories, including those reported to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change under the Paris Agreement. Our estimates match inventories for Brazil, Bolivia, and Paraguay but are much higher for other countries. Livestock emissions (65 % of anthropogenic emissions) show the largest discrepancies.
Saqr Munassar, Christian Rödenbeck, Michał Gałkowski, Frank-Thomas Koch, Kai U. Totsche, Santiago Botía, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 639–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-639-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-639-2025, 2025
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CO2 mole fractions simulated over a global set of stations showed an overestimation of CO2 if the diurnal cycle is missing in biogenic fluxes. This leads to biases in the estimated fluxes derived from the regional-scale inversions. Interannual variability of estimated biogenic fluxes is also affected by the exclusion of the CO2 diurnal cycle. The findings point to the importance of including the diurnal variations of CO2 in the biogenic fluxes used as priors in global and regional inversions.
Johannes Mülmenstädt, Andrew S. Ackerman, Ann M. Fridlind, Meng Huang, Po-Lun Ma, Naser Mahfouz, Susanne E. Bauer, Susannah M. Burrows, Matthew W. Christensen, Sudhakar Dipu, Andrew Gettelman, L. Ruby Leung, Florian Tornow, Johannes Quaas, Adam C. Varble, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, and Youtong Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13633–13652, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13633-2024, 2024
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Stratocumulus clouds play a large role in Earth's climate by reflecting incoming solar energy back to space. Turbulence at stratocumulus cloud top mixes in dry, warm air, which can lead to cloud dissipation. This process is challenging for coarse-resolution global models to represent. We show that global models nevertheless agree well with our process understanding. Global models also think the process is less important for the climate than other lines of evidence have led us to conclude.
Lukas Kluft, Bjorn Stevens, Manfred Brath, and Stefan A. Buehler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3829, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3829, 2024
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Using a single column model, we investigate the effect of the vertical distribution of clouds on climate sensitivity. We show that, depending on their height, clouds can mask or unmask the radiative response of the clear-sky atmosphere. Our single column model yields an all-sky climate sensitivity of 2.2 K, slightly less than the clear-sky value. This value can be interpreted as a baseline to which changes in surface albedo and an assumed reduction in cloud albedo would add.
Alejandro Uribe, Frida A.-M. Bender, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13371–13384, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13371-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13371-2024, 2024
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Our study explores climate feedbacks, vital for understanding global warming. It links them to shifts in Earth's energy balance at the atmosphere's top due to natural temperature variations. It takes roughly 50 years to establish this connection. Combined satellite observations and reanalysis suggest that Earth cools more than expected under carbon dioxide influence. However, continuous satellite data until at least the mid-2030s are crucial for refining our understanding of climate feedbacks.
Jiyuan Gao, Yang Yang, Hailong Wang, Pinya Wang, and Hong Liao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3399, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3399, 2024
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The decline in aerosols in China altered temperature and pressure gradients between the two hemispheres, which intensified the Southern Trade Winds and caused a moisture divergence in Australia, resulting in less rainfall. Reduced surface moisture led to more energy being converted into sensible heat instead of evaporating as latent heat, which raised near-surface temperatures. Our findings offer insights for managing drought and wildfire risks in Australia.
Xiao Ma, Yanping Li, Zhenhua Li, and Fei Huo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12013–12030, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12013-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12013-2024, 2024
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This study uses 4 km Weather Research and Forecasting simulations to investigate the features of low-level jets (LLJs) in North America. It identifies significant LLJ systems, such as the Great Plains LLJ. It also provides insight into LLJs poorly captured in coarser models, such as the northerly Quebec LLJ and the small-scale, low-level wind maxima around the Rocky Mountains. Furthermore, the study examines different physical mechanisms of forming three distinct types of LLJs.
Cuini Qi, Pinya Wang, Yang Yang, Huimin Li, Hui Zhang, Lili Ren, Xipeng Jin, Chenchao Zhan, Jianping Tang, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11775–11789, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11775-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11775-2024, 2024
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We investigate extremely hot weather impacts on surface ozone over the southeastern coast of China with and without tropical cyclones. Compared to hot days alone, ozone concentration decreased notably in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) but increased in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) during tropical cyclones and hot days. The YRD benefited from strong and clean sea winds aiding ozone elimination. In contrast, the PRD experienced strong northeasterly winds that potentially transport ozone pollution.
Shiv Priyam Raghuraman, Brian Soden, Amy Clement, Gabriel Vecchi, Sofia Menemenlis, and Wenchang Yang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11275–11283, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11275-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11275-2024, 2024
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The rapid global warming of 2023 has led to concerns that it could be externally driven. Here we show that climate models subject only to internal variability predict such warming spikes but rarely (p~1.6 %). However, when a prolonged La Niña immediately precedes an El Niño, as occurred leading up to 2023, such spikes are not uncommon (p~10.3 %). Virtually all of the spikes occur during an El Niño, strongly suggesting that internal variability drove the 2023 warming.
Robert J. Allen, Xueying Zhao, Cynthia A. Randles, Ryan J. Kramer, Bjørn H. Samset, and Christopher J. Smith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11207–11226, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11207-2024, 2024
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Present-day methane shortwave absorption mutes 28% (7–55%) of the surface warming associated with its longwave absorption. The precipitation increase associated with the longwave radiative effects of the present-day methane perturbation is also muted by shortwave absorption but not significantly so. Methane shortwave absorption also impacts the magnitude of its climate feedback parameter, largely through the cloud feedback.
Kun Zhang, Tao Luo, Xuebin Li, Shengcheng Cui, Ningquan Weng, Yinbo Huang, and Yingjian Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11157–11173, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11157-2024, 2024
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In order to deeply understand the formation mechanisms and evolution processes associated with vertical tropopause structures, this study proposes a new method for identifying the multiple characteristic parameters of vertical tropopause structures by fitting temperature profiles using the bi-Gaussian function. The identification results from the bi-Gaussian method are more reasonable and more consistent with the evolution process of atmospheric thermal stratifications.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Qiuhong Tang, Shibo Yao, Bo Sun, Hui Peng, and Shangbin Xiao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10741–10758, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10741-2024, 2024
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For moisture tracking over the Tibetan Plateau, we recommend using high-resolution forcing datasets, prioritizing temporal resolution over spatial resolution for WAM2layers, while for FLEXPART coupled with WaterSip, we suggest applying bias corrections to optimize the filtering of precipitation particles and adjust evaporation estimates.
Antoine Hermant, Linnea Huusko, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10707–10715, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10707-2024, 2024
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Aerosol particles, from natural and human sources, have a cooling effect on the climate, partially offsetting global warming. They do this through direct (sunlight reflection) and indirect (cloud property alteration) mechanisms. Using a global climate model, we found that, despite declining emissions, the direct effect of human aerosols has increased while the indirect effect has decreased, which is attributed to the shift in emissions from North America and Europe to Southeast Asia.
Claire L. Vincent and Andrew J. Dowdy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10209–10223, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10209-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10209-2024, 2024
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We investigate how wind speed at the height of a wind turbine changes during El Niño and La Niña years and with season and time of day in southeastern Australia. We found that El Niño and La Niña can cause average wind speed differences of around 1 m s-1 in some regions. The highest wind speeds occur in the afternoon or evening around mountains or the coast and during the night for inland areas. The results help show how placement of wind turbines can help balance electricity generation.
Sergio Soler, Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez, Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón, Patrick Jöckel, Torsten Neubert, Olivier Chanrion, Victor Reglero, and Nikolai Østgaard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10225–10243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10225-2024, 2024
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Sudden local ozone (O3) enhancements have been reported in different regions of the world since the 1970s. While the hot channel of lightning strokes directly produce significant amounts of nitrogen oxide, no direct emission of O3 is expected. Corona discharges in convective active regions could explain local O3 increases, which remains unexplained. We present the first mathematical functions that relate the global annual frequency of in-cloud coronas with four sets of meteorological variables.
Audran Borella, Olivier Boucher, Keith P. Shine, Marc Stettler, Katsumasa Tanaka, Roger Teoh, and Nicolas Bellouin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9401–9417, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9401-2024, 2024
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This work studies how to compare the climate impact of the CO2 emitted and contrails formed by a flight. This is applied to contrail avoidance strategies that would decrease climate impact of flights by changing the trajectory of aircraft to avoid persistent contrail formation, at the risk of increasing CO2 emissions. We find that different comparison methods lead to different quantification of the total climate impact of a flight but lead to similar decisions of whether to reroute an aircraft.
Daniel Köhler, Philipp Reutter, and Peter Spichtinger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10055–10072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10055-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10055-2024, 2024
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In this work, the influence of humidity on the properties of the tropopause is studied. The tropopause is the interface between the troposphere and the stratosphere and represents a barrier for the transport of air masses between the troposphere and the stratosphere. We consider not only the tropopause itself, but also a layer around it called the tropopause inversion layer (TIL). It is shown that the moister the underlying atmosphere is, the more this layer acts as a barrier.
Michael Stanley, Mikael Kuusela, Brendan Byrne, and Junjie Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9419–9433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9419-2024, 2024
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To serve the uncertainty quantification (UQ) needs of 4D-Var data assimilation (DA) practitioners, we describe and justify a UQ algorithm from carbon flux inversion and incorporate its sampling uncertainty into the final reported UQ. The algorithm is mathematically proved, and its performance is shown for a carbon flux observing system simulation experiment. These results legitimize and generalize this algorithm's current use and make available this effective algorithm to new DA domains.
Dharmendra Kumar Singh, Swarnali Sanyal, and Donald J. Wuebbles
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9219–9262, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9219-2024, 2024
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Radiative forcing of contrails could triple by 2050 due to increased air traffic and potential changes in flight altitudes. Factors like air traffic patterns, fuel efficiency, alternative fuels, and climate change further influence this impact. By highlighting gaps in knowledge and uncertainties, this research helps set priorities for future studies and assess strategies to mitigate the environmental impact of aviation emissions.
Dieu Anh Tran, Christoph Gerbig, Christian Rödenbeck, and Sönke Zaehle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8413–8440, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024, 2024
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The analysis of the atmospheric CO2 record from the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory (ZOTTO) in central Siberia shows significant increases in the length and amplitude of the CO2 uptake and release in the 2010–2021 period. The trend shows a stronger increase in carbon release amplitude compared to the uptake, suggesting that, despite enhanced growing season uptake, during this period climate warming did not elevate the annual net CO2 uptake as cold-season respirations also responded to the warming.
Olaf Morgenstern
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8105–8123, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8105-2024, 2024
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I use errors in climate model simulations to derive correction factors for the impacts of greenhouse gases and particles that bring these simulated temperature fields into agreement with an observational reconstruction of the Earth's temperature. On average across eight models, a reduction by about one-half of the particle-induced cooling would be required, causing only 0.24 K of cooling since 1850–1899. The greenhouse gas warming simulated by several highly sensitive models would also reduce.
Donghuan Li, Tianjun Zhou, Youcun Qi, Liwei Zou, Chao Li, Wenxia Zhang, and Xiaolong Chen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7347–7358, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7347-2024, 2024
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Two sets of climate model simulations are used to investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic factors of future change in cold extremes in East Asia. Dynamic factor accounted for over 80 % of cold-month temperature anomalies in past 50 years. The intensity of cold extreme is expected to decrease by 5 ℃, with thermodynamic factor contributing ~ 75 % by the end of the 21st century. Changes in dynamic factor are driven by an upward trend of positive Arctic Oscillation-like sea level pressure pattern.
Johannes Mülmenstädt, Edward Gryspeerdt, Sudhakar Dipu, Johannes Quaas, Andrew S. Ackerman, Ann M. Fridlind, Florian Tornow, Susanne E. Bauer, Andrew Gettelman, Yi Ming, Youtong Zheng, Po-Lun Ma, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, Matthew W. Christensen, Adam C. Varble, L. Ruby Leung, Xiaohong Liu, David Neubauer, Daniel G. Partridge, Philip Stier, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7331–7345, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7331-2024, 2024
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Human activities release copious amounts of small particles called aerosols into the atmosphere. These particles change how much sunlight clouds reflect to space, an important human perturbation of the climate, whose magnitude is highly uncertain. We found that the latest climate models show a negative correlation but a positive causal relationship between aerosols and cloud water. This means we need to be very careful when we interpret observational studies that can only see correlation.
Flora Maria Brocza, Peter Rafaj, Robert Sander, Fabian Wagner, and Jenny Marie Jones
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7385–7404, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7385-2024, 2024
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To understand how atmospheric mercury levels will change in the future, we model how anthropogenic Hg releases will change following developments in human energy use and mercury use and efforts to reduce pollution and battle climate change. Overall, the findings emphasize that it will be necessary to implement targeted Hg control measures in addition to stringent climate and clean air policies to achieve significant reductions in Hg emissions.
Zhen Liu, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Laura J. Wilcox
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7227–7252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7227-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7227-2024, 2024
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The aerosol impact on monsoon precipitation and circulation is strongly influenced by a model-simulated spatio-temporal variability in the climatological monsoon precipitation across Asia, which critically modulates the efficacy of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions, the predominant driver of the total aerosol response. There is a strong interplay between South Asia and East Asia monsoon precipitation biases and their relative predominance in driving the overall monsoon response.
Brian Nathan, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Stijn Naus, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, Daniel J. Varon, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Lucas A. Estrada, Alba Lorente, Tobias Borsdorff, Robert J. Parker, and Ilse Aben
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6845–6863, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6845-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6845-2024, 2024
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Venezuela's Lake Maracaibo region is notoriously hard to observe from space and features intensive oil exploitation, although production has strongly decreased in recent years. We estimate methane emissions using 2018–2020 TROPOMI satellite observations with national and regional transport models. Despite the production decrease, we find relatively constant emissions from Lake Maracaibo between 2018 and 2020, indicating that there could be large emissions from abandoned infrastructure.
Jiachen Cao, Xu Yue, and Mingrui Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3973–3987, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3973-2024, 2024
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We implemented two widely used ozone damage schemes into a same regional model. Although the two schemes yielded distinct ozone vegetation damages, they predicted similar feedbacks to surface air temperature and ozone air quality in China. Our results highlighted the significance of ozone pollution control given its detrimental impacts on ecosystem functions, contributions to global warming, and amplifications of ozone pollution through ozone–vegetation coupling.
Steven C. Sherwood and Chris E. Forest
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2679–2686, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2679-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2679-2024, 2024
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The most fundamental parameter used to gauge the severity of future climate change is the so-called equilibrium climate sensitivity, which measures the warming that would ultimately occur due to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Due to recent advances it is now thought to probably lie in the range 2.5–4 °C. We discuss this and the issues involved in evaluating and using the number, pointing to some pitfalls in current efforts but also possibilities for further progress.
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This article was solicited for the ACP 20th Anniversary collection. It received positive reviews that very nicely contributed to the ideas and to which the authors responded thoroughly. It is a stimulating read, combining 'big-picture' considerations with more detailed technical discussion of important and illuminating examples.
This article was solicited for the ACP 20th Anniversary collection. It received positive...
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Climate models are crucial for predicting climate change in detail. This paper proposes a balanced approach to improving their accuracy by combining traditional process-based methods with modern artificial intelligence (AI) techniques while maximizing the resolution to allow for ensemble simulations. The authors propose using AI to learn from both observational and simulated data while incorporating existing physical knowledge to reduce data demands and improve climate prediction reliability.
Climate models are crucial for predicting climate change in detail. This paper proposes a...
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