Articles | Volume 21, issue 3
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1717–1736, 2021
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1717–1736, 2021
Research article
09 Feb 2021
Research article | 09 Feb 2021

Atmospheric-methane source and sink sensitivity analysis using Gaussian process emulation

Angharad C. Stell et al.

Related authors

Modelling the growth of atmospheric nitrous oxide using a global hierarchical inversion
Angharad C. Stell, Michael Bertolacci, Andrew Zammit-Mangion, Matthew Rigby, Paul J. Fraser, Christina M. Harth, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Manfredi Manizza, Jens Mühle, Simon O'Doherty, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, Dickon Young, and Anita L. Ganesan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12945–12960,,, 2022
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Gases | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Chemistry (chemical composition and reactions)
Examining the implications of photochemical indicators for O3–NOx–VOC sensitivity and control strategies: a case study in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), China
Xun Li, Momei Qin, Lin Li, Kangjia Gong, Huizhong Shen, Jingyi Li, and Jianlin Hu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14799–14811,,, 2022
Short summary
Evaluation of isoprene nitrate chemistry in detailed chemical mechanisms
Alfred W. Mayhew, Ben H. Lee, Joel A. Thornton, Thomas J. Bannan, James Brean, James R. Hopkins, James D. Lee, Beth S. Nelson, Carl Percival, Andrew R. Rickard, Marvin D. Shaw, Peter M. Edwards, and Jaqueline F. Hamilton
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14783–14798,,, 2022
Short summary
Sixteen years of MOPITT satellite data strongly constrain Amazon CO fire emissions
Stijn Naus, Lucas G. Domingues, Maarten Krol, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Luciana V. Gatti, John B. Miller, Emanuel Gloor, Sourish Basu, Caio Correia, Gerbrand Koren, Helen M. Worden, Johannes Flemming, Gabrielle Pétron, and Wouter Peters
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14735–14750,,, 2022
Short summary
Comparison of model and ground observations finds snowpack and blowing snow aerosols both contribute to Arctic tropospheric reactive bromine
William F. Swanson, Chris D. Holmes, William R. Simpson, Kaitlyn Confer, Louis Marelle, Jennie L. Thomas, Lyatt Jaeglé, Becky Alexander, Shuting Zhai, Qianjie Chen, Xuan Wang, and Tomás Sherwen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14467–14488,,, 2022
Short summary
Assimilation of S5P/TROPOMI carbon monoxide data with the global CAMS near-real-time system
Antje Inness, Ilse Aben, Melanie Ades, Tobias Borsdorff, Johannes Flemming, Luke Jones, Jochen Landgraf, Bavo Langerock, Philippe Nedelec, Mark Parrington, and Roberto Ribas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14355–14376,,, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Bergamaschi, P., Brenninkmeijer, C. A. M., Hahn, M., Röckmann, T., Scharffe, D. H., Crutzen, P. J., Elansky, N. F., Belikov, I. B., Trivett, N. B. A., and Worthy, D. E. J.: Isotope analysis based source identification for atmospheric CH4 and CO sampled across Russia using the Trans-Siberian railroad, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 103, 8227–8235,, 1998. a
Bergamaschi, P., Houweling, S., Segers, A., Krol, M., Frankenberg, C., Scheepmaker, R. A., Dlugokencky, E., Wofsy, S. C., Kort, E. A., Sweeney, C., Schuck, T., Brenninkmeijer, C., Chen, H., Beck, V., and Gerbig, C.: Atmospheric CH4 in the first decade of the 21st century: Inverse modeling analysis using SCIAMACHY satellite retrievals and NOAA surface measurements, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 7350–7369,, 2013. a, b, c
Bloom, A. A., Bowman, K. W., Lee, M., Turner, A. J., Schroeder, R., Worden, J. R., Weidner, R., McDonald, K. C., and Jacob, D. J.: A global wetland methane emissions and uncertainty dataset for atmospheric chemical transport models (WetCHARTs version 1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2141–2156,, 2017. a, b
Bousquet, P., Ringeval, B., Pison, I., Dlugokencky, E. J., Brunke, E.-G., Carouge, C., Chevallier, F., Fortems-Cheiney, A., Frankenberg, C., Hauglustaine, D. A., Krummel, P. B., Langenfelds, R. L., Ramonet, M., Schmidt, M., Steele, L. P., Szopa, S., Yver, C., Viovy, N., and Ciais, P.: Source attribution of the changes in atmospheric methane for 2006–2008, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 3689–3700,, 2011. a, b, c
Burkholder, J. B., Sander, S. P., Abbatt, J., Barker, J. R., Huie, R. E., Kolb, C. E., Kurylo, M. J., Orkin, V. L., Wilmouth, D. M., and Wine, P. H.: Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Atmospheric Studies, Evaluation Number 18, Tech. Rep. 10, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena,, 2015. a
Short summary
Although it is the second-most important greenhouse gas, our understanding of the atmospheric-methane budget is limited. The uncertainty highlights the need for new tools to investigate sources and sinks. Here, we use a Gaussian process emulator to efficiently approximate the response of atmospheric-methane observations to changes in the most uncertain emission or loss processes. With this new method, we rigorously quantify the sensitivity of atmospheric observations to budget uncertainties.
Final-revised paper