Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6377-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6377-2026
Research article
 | 
12 May 2026
Research article |  | 12 May 2026

Deciphering the impacts of meteorology on surface ozone variability in eastern China using explainable machine learning models

Xingpei Ye, Lin Zhang, Xiaolin Wang, Ni Lu, Sebastian Hickman, Guo Luo, and Alex T. Archibald

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Cited articles

Archibald, A. T., Turnock, S. T., Griffiths, P. T., Cox, T., Derwent, R. G., Knote, C., and Shin, M.: On the changes in surface ozone over the twenty-first century: sensitivity to changes in surface temperature and chemical mechanisms, Philos. Trans. A. Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 378, 20190329, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2019.0329, 2020. 
Bloomer, B. J., Stehr, J. W., Piety, C. A., Salawitch, R. J., and Dickerson, R. R.: Observed relationships of ozone air pollution with temperature and emissions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L09803, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009gl037308, 2009. 
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Chen, B., Zhen, L., Wang, L., Zhong, H., Lin, C., Yang, L., Xu, W., and Huang, R.-J.: Revisiting the impact of temperature on ground-level ozone: a causal inference approach, Sci. Total Environ., 953, 176062, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176062, 2024. 
Chen, T. and Guestrin, C.: XGBoost: a scalable tree boosting system, in: Proceedings of the 22nd ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD '16), Association for Computing Machinery, New York, NY, USA, 785–794, https://doi.org/10.1145/2939672.2939785, 2016. 
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Short summary
This study investigates how meteorology influences long-term surface ozone trends and pollution events across three major regions in eastern China using an explainable machine learning framework. The results show physically interpretable yet model-dependent ozone-meteorology relationships, highlighting both the potential and the limitations of explainable machine learning for process understanding in atmospheric chemistry.
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