Articles | Volume 26, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-14439-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-14439-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Oct 2026
Research article |
| 13 Oct 2026
| 13 Oct 2026
Summertime ozone sensitivity to temperature in China: observational evidence and mechanistic attribution in urban and rural areas in the Yangtze River Delta region
Chang Su
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Massimo Bollasina
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
James Weber
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
David Stevenson
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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Tianhui Zhou and Massimo A. Bollasina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5006, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5006, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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We compare two ways of estimating the climate effects of human-produced aerosols in a global climate model. The two methods give broadly similar results for the historical period, but diverge strongly in the future, especially for rainfall and atmospheric circulation over Asia and the Indo-Pacific. The differences arise because aerosols act within a changing climate shaped by rising greenhouse gases, showing that aerosol impacts depend on the background climate state.
Srinath Krishnan, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Maria Sand, Marit Sandstad, Hannah Bryant, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Fabien Paulot, Michael Prather, and David Stevenson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 9509–9539, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-9509-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-9509-2026, 2026
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Hydrogen (H2) is an indirect greenhouse gas that can affect climate through chemical reactions in the atmosphere. To better understand this impact, it is important to constrain the sources and sinks of hydrogen. Using a suite of three-dimensional and one-dimensional models, we find that atmospheric production of hydrogen is 37–60 Tg/yr and that the geological source of H2 is much smaller than suggested. More field and isotopic measurements are needed to improve these estimates.
Karen E. Helliesen, Bosi Sheng, and Massimo A. Bollasina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3557, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3557, 2026
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Midlatitude storms follow preferred pathways known as storm tracks, which shift poleward and change in strength as the climate warms, affecting precipitation across the Northern Hemisphere. Winter changes are less certain due to natural climate fluctuations, while summer changes are more consistent. These findings have implications for regional storm track and rainfall projections and climate adaptation planning.
Tianhui Zhou, Massimo A. Bollasina, and David S. Stevenson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3416, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3416, 2026
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Future drought risk will be shaped not only by greenhouse-gas-driven warming, but also by changes in air-pollution-related emissions. We examine how reducing non-methane short-lived climate forcers affects future droughts characteristics. The Sahel, Middle East, and Central Asia face substantially worsened drought conditions. Our findings show that air-pollution mitigation can substantially increase future drought risk and population exposure in vulnerable regions.
Emma Sands, Fiona M. O'Connor, James Weber, Ruth M. Doherty, and Richard J. Pope
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 8553–8573, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-8553-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-8553-2026, 2026
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Land use impacts climate through changes in atmospheric composition but the relative importance of various pathways is uncertain. We use a model to separate the forcing from pre-industrial to present-day land use change into contributions from various greenhouse gases, aerosol effects, and surface albedo change. The inclusion of updated processes highlights the role of changes in cloud properties. The carbon dioxide forcing dominates, but other processes have substantial regional impacts.
Bosi Sheng, Massimo A. Bollasina, Alexandre S. Gagnon, Laura J. Wilcox, Thomas P. S. Reynolds, Christopher T. S. Beckett, Haolin Wang, Qingxiang Li, Pierre Nabat, Robert J. Allen, Bjørn H. Samset, Joonas Merikanto, Geeta G. Persad, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Sharar Ahmadi, Maxwell T. Elling, Knut von Salzen, Daniel M. Westervelt, Naga Oshima, and Tsuyoshi Koshiro
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2198, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2198, 2026
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Observational records indicate that austral summer rainfall over southern Africa experienced substantial wetting during the late 20th century, followed by pronounced drying over the past two decades. We show that East Asian sulphate aerosol emissions played a key role in shaping these rainfall trends. These findings have important implications for reducing uncertainties in regional rainfall projections and for understanding their links to ecosystem changes.
Stephanie Fiedler, Fiona M. O'Connor, Duncan Watson-Parris, Robert J. Allen, William J. Collins, Paul T. Griffiths, Matthew Kasoar, Jarmo Kikstra, Jasper F. Kok, Lee T. Murray, Fabien Paulot, Maria Sand, Steven T. Turnock, James Weber, Laura J. Wilcox, and Vaishali Naik
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 3477–3508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3477-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3477-2026, 2026
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The Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project phase two (AerChemMIP2) allows the community to compare results from contemporary Earth system models. AerChemMIP2 is asking modelling centres to perform experiments following the same protocol. It includes experiments for enabling new science and for tracking progress. Model output will be used for addressing research and policy questions about anthropogenic and natural drivers of climate change, and the impacts on air quality.
Gunnar Myhre, Øivind Hodnebrog, Srinath Krishnan, Maria Sand, Marit Sandstad, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Lieven Clarisse, Bruno Franco, Dylan B. Millet, Kelley C. Wells, Alexander Archibald, Hannah N. Bryant, Alex T. Chaudhri, David S. Stevenson, Didier Hauglustaine, Michael Prather, J. Christopher Kaiser, Dirk J. L. Olivie, Michael Schulz, Oliver Wild, Ye Wang, Thérèse Salameh, Jason E. Williams, Philippe Le Sager, Fabien Paulot, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Haley E. Plaas
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2577–2591, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2577-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2577-2026, 2026
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Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) affect air quality and climate, but their behavior in the atmosphere is still uncertain. We launched a global research effort to compare how different models represent these compounds and to improve their accuracy. By analyzing model results alongside observations and satellite data, we aim to better understand the atmospheric composition of these compounds.
Damaris Y. T. Tan, Mathew R. Heal, David S. Stevenson, Stefan Reis, Massimo Vieno, and Eiko Nemitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 3973–3993, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-3973-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-3973-2026, 2026
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Our focus is the cumulative influence of biomass burning (BB) on PM2.5 concentrations in a country far-removed from major BB sources. We find that ~10% of UK annual mean PM2.5 is conditional on BB emissions, 97% and 73% from BB outside the UK and outside Europe. The majority of the long-range component is secondary, of which much of the inorganic is mediated through local anthropogenic emissions. The relative contribution of BB in such locations is an increasing challenge for PM2.5 targets.
Xu-Cheng He, Nathan Luke Abraham, Han Ding, Maria R. Russo, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Yao Ge, Xuemei Wang, Anthony C. Jones, Pedro Campuzano-Jost, Benjamin Nault, Agnieszka Kupc, Donald Blake, Jose L. Jimenez, Christina J. Williamson, James Weber, Alexander T. Archibald, and Hamish Gordon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 3805–3851, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-3805-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-3805-2026, 2026
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Aerosols affect clouds and climate. However, current climate models still struggle to simulate them accurately. We used aircraft data from a global mission to evaluate how well the UK Earth System Model represents aerosols and their precursors. Our results show that the model misses key formation processes in clean ocean regions, suggesting that future improvements should focus on better representing how aerosols form naturally in the atmosphere.
Weihao Sun, Massimo A. Bollasina, Ioana Colfescu, Guoxiong Wu, and Yimin Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 2027–2039, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-2027-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-2027-2026, 2026
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Observational records show that the Asian monsoon underwent substantial changes during the early 20th century, including a wetting trend over South Asia and a southward shift in rainfall over East Asia. We show that increasing European sulphate aerosol emissions played a crucial role in shaping the monsoon rainfall trends. This has important implications for reducing uncertainties in monsoon projections, particularly in light of the diverse future aerosol emission scenarios for the region.
William J. Collins, John S. Daniel, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Martin Cussac, Makoto Deushi, Gregory Faluvegi, Paul Griffiths, Øivind Hodnebrog, Larry W. Horowitz, James Keeble, Douglas Kinnison, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Drew Shindell, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Zihao Wang, and James Weber
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6033, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6033, 2026
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Ozone depleting substances (ODSs) are also greenhouse gases that cause global warming. However, their destruction of ozone contributes a global cooling. We have used results from climate models that include atmospheric chemistry and found that the cooling effect of the ozone depletion diagnosed in the models was larger than that calculated using a standard method. We find that some ODSs have a net cooling effect whereas for others the warming effect is significantly reduced.
Jize Jiang, David S. Stevenson, Aimable Uwizeye, Giuseppe Tempio, Alessandra Falcucci, Flavia Casu, and Mark A. Sutton
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5051–5099, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5051-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5051-2025, 2025
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A special model called AMmonia–CLIMate (AMCLIM) has been developed to understand and calculate NH3 emissions from livestock farming. It is estimated that about 30 % of excreted N from livestock is lost due to NH3 emissions from housing, manure management and land application of manure. High NH3 volatilization often occurs in hot regions, while poor management practices also result in significant N losses through NH3 emissions.
Zixuan Jia, Massimo A. Bollasina, Wenjun Zhang, and Ying Xiang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8805–8820, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8805-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8805-2025, 2025
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Using multi-model mean data from regional aerosol perturbation experiments, we find that increased Asian sulfate aerosols strengthen the link between ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) and the East Asian winter monsoon. In coupled simulations, aerosol-induced broad cooling increases the ENSO amplitude by affecting the tropical Pacific mean state, contributing to the increase in monsoon interannual variability. These results provide important implications to reduce uncertainties in future projections of regional extreme variability.
Emma Sands, Ruth M. Doherty, Fiona M. O'Connor, Richard J. Pope, James Weber, and Daniel P. Grosvenor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7269–7297, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7269-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7269-2025, 2025
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We perform a detailed satellite–model comparison for isoprene, formaldehyde and aerosol optical depth in an Earth system model. We quantify the impacts of several processes that affect how biosphere–atmosphere interactions influence atmospheric chemistry and aerosols. Our findings highlight that the aerosol direct effect is sensitive to the processes studied. These results can inform future investigations of how the biosphere can affect atmospheric composition and climate.
Alexander K. Tardito Chaudhri and David S. Stevenson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7369–7385, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7369-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7369-2025, 2025
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There remains a large uncertainty in the global warming potential of atmospheric hydrogen due to poor constraints on its soil deposition and, therefore, its lifetime. A new analysis of the latitudinal variation in the observed seasonality of hydrogen is used to constrain its surface fluxes. This is complemented with a simple latitude–height model where surface fluxes are adjusted from a prototype deposition scheme.
Alok K. Pandey, David S. Stevenson, Alcide Zhao, Richard J. Pope, Ryan Hossaini, Krishan Kumar, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4785–4802, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4785-2025, 2025
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Nitrogen dioxide is an air pollutant largely controlled by human activity that affects ozone, methane, and aerosols. Satellite instruments can quantify column NO2 and, by carefully matching the time and location of measurements, enable evaluation of model simulations. NO2 over south and east Asia is assessed, showing that the model captures not only many features of the measurements, but also important differences that suggest model deficiencies in representing several aspects of the atmospheric chemistry of NO2.
Duncan Watson-Parris, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Geeta Persad, Massimo A. Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Carley E. Iles, Manoj Joshi, Marianne T. Lund, Daniel McCoy, Daniel M. Westervelt, Andrew I. L. Williams, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4443–4454, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, 2025
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In 2020, regulations by the International Maritime Organization aimed to reduce aerosol emissions from ships. These aerosols previously had a cooling effect, which the regulations might reduce, revealing more greenhouse gas warming. Here we find that, while there is regional warming, the global 2020–2040 temperature rise is only +0.03 °C. This small change is difficult to distinguish from natural climate variability, indicating the regulations have had a limited effect on observed warming to date.
Jize Jiang, David S. Stevenson, and Mark A. Sutton
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8181–8222, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8181-2024, 2024
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A special model called AMmonia–CLIMate (AMCLIM) has been developed to understand and calculate NH3 emissions from fertilizer use and also taking into account how the environment influences these NH3 emissions. It is estimated that about 17 % of applied N in fertilizers was lost due to NH3 emissions. Hot and dry conditions and regions with high-pH soils can expect higher NH3 emissions.
James A. King, James Weber, Peter Lawrence, Stephanie Roe, Abigail L. S. Swann, and Maria Val Martin
Biogeosciences, 21, 3883–3902, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3883-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3883-2024, 2024
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Tackling climate change by adding, restoring, or enhancing forests is gaining global support. However, it is important to investigate the broader implications of this. We used a computer model of the Earth to investigate a future where tree cover expanded as much as possible. We found that some tropical areas were cooler because of trees pumping water into the atmosphere, but this also led to soil and rivers drying. This is important because it might be harder to maintain forests as a result.
Zhen Liu, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Laura J. Wilcox
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7227–7252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7227-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7227-2024, 2024
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The aerosol impact on monsoon precipitation and circulation is strongly influenced by a model-simulated spatio-temporal variability in the climatological monsoon precipitation across Asia, which critically modulates the efficacy of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions, the predominant driver of the total aerosol response. There is a strong interplay between South Asia and East Asia monsoon precipitation biases and their relative predominance in driving the overall monsoon response.
Prerita Agarwal, David S. Stevenson, and Mathew R. Heal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2239–2266, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2239-2024, 2024
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Air pollution levels across northern India are amongst some of the worst in the world, with episodic and hazardous haze events. Here, the ability of the WRF-Chem model to predict air quality over northern India is assessed against several datasets. Whilst surface wind speed and particle pollution peaks are over- and underestimated, respectively, meteorology and aerosol trends are adequately captured, and we conclude it is suitable for investigating severe particle pollution events.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
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Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Ben A. Cala, Scott Archer-Nicholls, James Weber, N. Luke Abraham, Paul T. Griffiths, Lorrie Jacob, Y. Matthew Shin, Laura E. Revell, Matthew Woodhouse, and Alexander T. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14735–14760, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14735-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14735-2023, 2023
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Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is an important trace gas emitted from the ocean recognised as setting the sulfate aerosol background, but its oxidation is complex. As a result representation in chemistry-climate models is greatly simplified. We develop and compare a new mechanism to existing mechanisms via a series of global and box model experiments. Our studies show our updated DMS scheme is a significant improvement but significant variance exists between mechanisms.
Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Bjørn H. Samset, Massimo A. Bollasina, Paul T. Griffiths, James Keeble, Marianne T. Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Declan O'Donnell, David J. Paynter, Geeta G. Persad, Steven T. Rumbold, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Sabine Undorf, and Daniel M. Westervelt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4451–4479, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, 2023
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Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional climate change. However, the size of these regional impacts and the way they arise are still uncertain. With large changes in aerosol emissions a possibility over the next few decades, it is important to better quantify the potential role of aerosol in future regional climate change. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project will deliver experiments designed to facilitate this.
Maria Rosa Russo, Brian John Kerridge, Nathan Luke Abraham, James Keeble, Barry Graham Latter, Richard Siddans, James Weber, Paul Thomas Griffiths, John Adrian Pyle, and Alexander Thomas Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6169–6196, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6169-2023, 2023
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Tropospheric ozone is an important component of the Earth system as it can affect both climate and air quality. In this work we use observed tropospheric ozone derived from satellite observations and compare it to tropospheric ozone from model simulations. Our aim is to investigate recent changes (2005–2018) in tropospheric ozone in the North Atlantic region and to understand what factors are driving such changes.
Yao Ge, Massimo Vieno, David S. Stevenson, Peter Wind, and Mathew R. Heal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6083–6112, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6083-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6083-2023, 2023
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The sensitivity of fine particles and reactive N and S species to reductions in precursor emissions is investigated using the EMEP MSC-W (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme Meteorological Synthesizing Centre – West) atmospheric chemistry transport model. This study reveals that the individual emissions reduction has multiple and geographically varying co-benefits and small disbenefits on different species, demonstrating the importance of prioritizing regional emissions controls.
James Weber, James A. King, Katerina Sindelarova, and Maria Val Martin
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3083–3101, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3083-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3083-2023, 2023
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The emissions of volatile organic compounds from vegetation (BVOCs) influence atmospheric composition and contribute to certain gases and aerosols (tiny airborne particles) which play a role in climate change. BVOC emissions are likely to change in the future due to changes in climate and land use. Therefore, accurate simulation of BVOC emission is important, and this study describes an update to the simulation of BVOC emissions in the United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM).
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett
Clim. Past, 19, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, 2023
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We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
Nora L. S. Fahrenbach and Massimo A. Bollasina
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 877–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-877-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-877-2023, 2023
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We studied the monthly-scale climate response to COVID-19 aerosol emission reductions during January–May 2020 using climate models. Our results show global temperature and rainfall anomalies driven by circulation changes. The climate patterns reverse polarity from JF to MAM due to a shift in the main SO2 reduction region from China to India. This real-life example of rapid climate adjustments to abrupt, regional aerosol emission reduction has large implications for future climate projections.
David S. Stevenson, Richard G. Derwent, Oliver Wild, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14243–14252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14243-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14243-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric methane’s growth rate rose by 50 % in 2020 relative to 2019. Lower nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions tend to increase methane’s atmospheric residence time; lower carbon monoxide (CO) and non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) emissions decrease its lifetime. Combining model sensitivities with emission changes, we find that COVID-19 lockdown emission reductions can explain over half the observed increases in methane in 2020.
Yao Ge, Massimo Vieno, David S. Stevenson, Peter Wind, and Mathew R. Heal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8343–8368, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8343-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8343-2022, 2022
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Reactive N and S gases and aerosols are critical determinants of air quality. We report a comprehensive analysis of the concentrations, wet and dry deposition, fluxes, and lifetimes of these species globally as well as for 10 world regions. We used the EMEP MSC-W model coupled with WRF meteorology and 2015 global emissions. Our work demonstrates the substantial regional variation in these quantities and the need for modelling to simulate atmospheric responses to precursor emissions.
Yao Ge, Mathew R. Heal, David S. Stevenson, Peter Wind, and Massimo Vieno
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7021–7046, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7021-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7021-2021, 2021
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This study reports the first evaluation of the global EMEP MSC-W ACTM driven by WRF meteorology, with a focus on surface concentrations and wet deposition of reactive N and S species. The model–measurement comparison is conducted both spatially and temporally, covering 10 monitoring networks worldwide. The statistics from the comprehensive evaluations presented in this study support the application of this model framework for global analysis of the budgets and fluxes of reactive N and SIA.
Liang Guo, Laura J. Wilcox, Massimo Bollasina, Steven T. Turnock, Marianne T. Lund, and Lixia Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15299–15308, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15299-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15299-2021, 2021
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Severe haze remains serious over Beijing despite emissions decreasing since 2008. Future haze changes in four scenarios are studied. The pattern conducive to haze weather increases with the atmospheric warming caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases. However, the actual haze intensity, measured by either PM2.5 or optical depth, decreases with aerosol emissions. We show that only using the weather pattern index to predict the future change of Beijing haze is insufficient.
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Short summary
Hot weather can strongly increase surface ozone, a harmful air pollutant, but the reasons differ between urban and rural areas. We studied a large city and a nearby rural region in eastern China using air quality observations and simplified chemistry modelling. We found that heat-driven plant emissions dominate ozone increases in the city, while chemical nitrogen cycling is key in the rural area. Our results help identify heat-resilient air pollution control strategies under climate change.
Hot weather can strongly increase surface ozone, a harmful air pollutant, but the reasons differ...
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