Articles | Volume 25, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3583-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3583-2025
Research article
 | 
26 Mar 2025
Research article |  | 26 Mar 2025

Construction and application of a pollen emissions model based on phenology and random forests

Jiangtao Li, Xingqin An, Zhaobin Sun, Caihua Ye, Qing Hou, Yuxin Zhao, and Zhe Liu

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Subject: Aerosols | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
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Cited articles

Aerts, R., Stas, M., Vanlessen, N., Hendrickx, M., Bruffaerts, N., Hoebeke, L., Dendoncker, N., Dujardin, S., Saenen, N. D., Van Nieuwenhuyse, A., Aerts, J.-M., Van Orshoven, J., Nawrot, T. S., and Somers, B.: Residential green space and seasonal distress in a cohort of tree pollen allergy patients, Int. J. Hygien. Environ. Health, 223, 71–79, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijheh.2019.10.004, 2020. 
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Asher, M. I., Montefort, S., Björkstén, B., Lai, C. K. W., Strachan, D. P., Weiland, S. K., and Williams, H.: Worldwide time trends in the prevalence of symptoms of asthma, allergic rhinoconjunctivitis, and eczema in childhood: ISAAC Phases One and Three repeat multicountry cross-sectional surveys, Lancet, 368, 733–743, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(06)69283-0, 2006. 
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Bastl, K., Kmenta, M., Berger, M., and Berger, U.: The connection of pollen concentrations and crowd-sourced symptom data: new insights from daily and seasonal symptom load index data from 2013 to 2017 in Vienna, World Allerg. Org. J., 11, 24, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40413-018-0203-6, 2018. 
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Short summary
Climate change and pollution have intensified pollen allergies. We developed a pollen emissions model using phenology and random forests. Key factors affecting annual pollen emissions include temperature, relative humidity and sunshine hours. Pollen dispersal starts around 10 August, peaks around 30 August and ends by 25 September, lasting about 45 d. Over time, annual pollen emissions exhibit significant fluctuations and a downward trend.
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