Articles | Volume 25, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18051-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18051-2025
Research article
 | 
10 Dec 2025
Research article |  | 10 Dec 2025

Modeling and verifying ice supersaturated regions in the ARPEGE model for persistent contrail forecast

Sara Arriolabengoa, Pierre Crispel, Olivier Jaron, Yves Bouteloup, Benoît Vié, Yun Li, Andreas Petzold, and Matthieu Plu

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Cited articles

Arriolabengoa, S.: Software material for Arriolabengoa et al. (2025), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15303979, 2025. a, b
Bland, J., Gray, S., Methven, J., and Forbes, R.: Characterising extratropical near-tropopause analysis humidity biases and their radiative effects on temperature forecasts, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147, 3878–3898, 2021. a
Bock, L. and Burkhardt, U.: The temporal evolution of a long-lived contrail cirrus cluster: Simulations with a global climate model, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121, 3548–3565, 2016. a, b
Borella, A., Vignon, É., Boucher, O., and Rohs, S.: An empirical parameterization of the subgrid-scale distribution of water vapor in the UTLS for atmospheric general circulation models, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 129, e2024JD040981, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD040981, 2024. a
Bougeault, P.: Modeling the trade-wind cumulus boundary layer. Part I: Testing the ensemble cloud relations against numerical data, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 38, 2414–2428, 1981. a
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Aircraft condensation trails, also known as contrails, have a significant impact on the global climate when they persist. In this work, we present a modification to the Météo-France weather model ARPEGE (Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle) to improve the forecasting of areas favourable to the persistence of contrails. The spatial correspondence between observations and the modified model is demonstrated and evaluated by appropriate metrics. The modified model can therefore be used for further contrail climate impact applications.
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