Articles | Volume 25, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18051-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Modeling and verifying ice supersaturated regions in the ARPEGE model for persistent contrail forecast
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- Final revised paper (published on 10 Dec 2025)
- Preprint (discussion started on 06 May 2025)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1499', Anonymous Referee #1, 10 Jul 2025
- AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Sara Arriolabengoa, 08 Oct 2025
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1499', Anonymous Referee #2, 27 Aug 2025
- AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Sara Arriolabengoa, 08 Oct 2025
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Sara Arriolabengoa on behalf of the Authors (14 Oct 2025)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (29 Oct 2025) by Fangqun Yu
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (03 Nov 2025)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (06 Nov 2025) by Fangqun Yu
AR by Sara Arriolabengoa on behalf of the Authors (13 Nov 2025)
Author's response
Manuscript
General Comments:
Overall I find the manuscript to be acceptable, although a few minor suggested revisions are mentioned below. It is clearly written and well organized with supporting evidence and logic and easy-to-follow outcomes. The main criticism (further discussed below) pertains to the persistent problem in some models of achieving the right outcome for the right reason.
Specific points:
1. The discussion in Sections 2.2 and 2.3 could be made part of the appendix directly instead of including in the main body. The cloud scheme is already discussed in detail in the appendix so isn't it simple to keep all those details in one place? The fact that multiple closure methods were attempted could be omitted and only the one picked could be described. The rejected method seems impertinent to readers. During the research, the authors discovered a closure idea that was inferior but that happens frequently in model parameterization development. Which dead-end pathways to describe to readers is subjective, but it doesn't seem to add any insight directly to a physical problem being solved. As one manuscript reviewer's opinion only, I would not require this to be addressed in a revision, so the editor can decide if there is mutual agreement among reviewers.
2. While I agree that the scale of model data versus observations is extremely different, I believe it is insightful to see a distribution of the fundamental raw model data error. A good example is found in Fig. 5 of Thompson et al (2024). The frequency histograms of RHice in this manuscript's Fig. 6 provides a good indication of the changes in ARP-new vs. IFS and Obs, but a distribution plot of direct model error for every single IAGOS unfiltered observation is desired as well.
3. Why are various models still not using a better physical representation of ice depositional growth from a physical means rather than using variants of saturation adjustment? Efforts to create and use tuning knobs to handle ice supersaturation rather than updating inherent physical growth equations seems endless. Eq. 1 is just another tuning knob component of three elements described in this paper: (1) a calibration coefficient; (2) a simplistic temperature function; and (3) a closure method that doesn’t properly represent the physics as shown clearly in Fig. 5. The “cliff” in the histogram is related to Eq. 1 and the sentence in Line 112: “Once the supersaturation threshold is locally exceeded, local adjustment is instantly obtained back to saturation.” In other words, as humidity grows progressively larger, it will cross the threshold and then suddenly the RHice is instantly dropped (let’s say for example 145%) back to 100% while adding the excess vapor directly into solid phase.
There is no need to invoke a need for 2-moment cloud ice treatment to result in proper RHice forecasts. This appears to be a common misconception. A mass mixing ratio single moment scheme suffices with additional assumptions of ice spectral distribution. A basic inverse exponential distribution with a Y-intercept parameter that can increase as ice mass increases while holding a slope constant is one such assumption. This follows the most basic observations that more ice number comes with more ice mass. From whatever assumptions are made for number distribution, the total ice number (or number within bins of specific size ranges) can be diagnostically calculated, which effectively turns a 1-moment scheme into a 2-moment treatment. There is no solid evidence to say that 1-moment schemes are incapable of predicting the correct outcome compared to 2-moment schemes.
The essential problem of the microphysics is the lack of accounting for slow physical vapor depositional growth of ice. Creating a new threshold for when to convert instantly the excess vapor over ice saturation into cloud ice isn’t solving the problem yet (as Fig. 5 clearly shows). In fact, the method to create initial ice where none previously existed could be fine with the new technique, but once ice does exist in a grid volume, do not permit more ice to nucleate and use a “electrical capacitance” analogy to grow the existing ice by vapor deposition. That way some of the excess (over saturation) water vapor can remain in gas phase and continue to permit RHice>100%.
Technical corrections:
I did not exhaustively list many technical corrections because the manuscript was relatively good overall and I am late submitting the review so I am optimistic that other reviewers made more suggestions. Here are just a couple items.
L59: “verification methods deserve to be completed to accurately…” is awkward. It is simpler to state that verifying RHice in general is needed as well as threshold-based (ISSR) conditions?
L60: “known to be a rather rare phenomenon in the atmosphere.” It is not rare. It occurs ~11% of the time in the entire atmosphere if you believe radiosonde data per Thompson et al (2024) or the manuscript's quote of 10% of the time from the IAGOS dataset. That does not seem especially rare. The phrase is basically repeated in L246.