Articles | Volume 24, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7911-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7911-2024
Research article
 | 
11 Jul 2024
Research article |  | 11 Jul 2024

How well can persistent contrails be predicted? An update

Sina Hofer, Klaus Gierens, and Susanne Rohs

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Cited articles

Appleman, H.: The formation of exhaust condensation trails by jet aircraft, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 34, 14–20, 1953. a
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): ERA5: Fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate, Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Data Store (CDS), https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/home (last access: 4 July 2024), 2017. a
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Duda, D. and Minnis, P.: Basic Diagnosis and Prediction of Persistent Contrail Occurrence Using High-Resolution Numerical Weather Analyses/Forecasts and Logistic Regression, Part I: Effects of Random Error, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 48, 1780–1789, 2009a. a
Duda, D. and Minnis, P.: Basic Diagnosis and Prediction of Persistent Contrail Occurrence Using High-Resolution Numerical Weather Analyses/Forecasts and Logistic Regression, Part II: Evaluation of Sample Models, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 48, 1790–1802, 2009b. a, b
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We try to improve the forecast of ice supersaturation (ISS) and potential persistent contrails using data on dynamical quantities in addition to temperature and relative humidity in a modern kind of regression model. Although the results are improved, they are not good enough for flight routing. The origin of the problem is the strong overlap of probability densities conditioned on cases with and without ice-supersaturated regions (ISSRs) in the important range of 70–100 %.
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