Articles | Volume 24, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7911-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7911-2024
Research article
 | 
11 Jul 2024
Research article |  | 11 Jul 2024

How well can persistent contrails be predicted? An update

Sina Hofer, Klaus Gierens, and Susanne Rohs

Related authors

Kinematic properties of regions that can involve persistent contrails
Sina Maria Hofer and Klaus Martin Gierens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3520,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3520, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
The effect of ice supersaturation and thin cirrus on lapse rates in the upper troposphere
Klaus Gierens, Lena Wilhelm, Sina Hofer, and Susanne Rohs
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7699–7712, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7699-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7699-2022, 2022
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Clouds and Precipitation | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Correction of ERA5 temperature and relative humidity biases by bivariate quantile mapping for contrail formation analysis
Kevin Wolf, Nicolas Bellouin, Olivier Boucher, Susanne Rohs, and Yun Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 157–181, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-157-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-157-2025, 2025
Short summary
Can pollen affect precipitation?
Marje Prank, Juha Tonttila, Xiaoxia Shang, Sami Romakkaniemi, and Tomi Raatikainen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 183–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-183-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-183-2025, 2025
Short summary
Potential impacts of marine fuel regulations on an Arctic stratocumulus case and its radiative response
Luís Filipe Escusa dos Santos, Hannah C. Frostenberg, Alejandro Baró Pérez, Annica M. L. Ekman, Luisa Ickes, and Erik S. Thomson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 119–142, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-119-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-119-2025, 2025
Short summary
The impact of the mesh size and microphysics scheme on the representation of mid-level clouds in the ICON model in hilly and complex terrain
Nadja Omanovic, Brigitta Goger, and Ulrike Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 14145–14175, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-14145-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-14145-2024, 2024
Short summary
The role of ascent timescales for warm conveyor belt (WCB) moisture transport into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS)
Cornelis Schwenk and Annette Miltenberger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 14073–14099, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-14073-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-14073-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Appleman, H.: The formation of exhaust condensation trails by jet aircraft, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 34, 14–20, 1953. a
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): ERA5: Fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate, Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Data Store (CDS), https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/home (last access: 4 July 2024), 2017. a
Corti, T. and Peter, T.: A simple model for cloud radiative forcing, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 5751–5758, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-5751-2009, 2009. a
Duda, D. and Minnis, P.: Basic Diagnosis and Prediction of Persistent Contrail Occurrence Using High-Resolution Numerical Weather Analyses/Forecasts and Logistic Regression, Part I: Effects of Random Error, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 48, 1780–1789, 2009a. a
Duda, D. and Minnis, P.: Basic Diagnosis and Prediction of Persistent Contrail Occurrence Using High-Resolution Numerical Weather Analyses/Forecasts and Logistic Regression, Part II: Evaluation of Sample Models, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 48, 1790–1802, 2009b. a, b
Download
Short summary
We try to improve the forecast of ice supersaturation (ISS) and potential persistent contrails using data on dynamical quantities in addition to temperature and relative humidity in a modern kind of regression model. Although the results are improved, they are not good enough for flight routing. The origin of the problem is the strong overlap of probability densities conditioned on cases with and without ice-supersaturated regions (ISSRs) in the important range of 70–100 %.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint