Articles | Volume 24, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7911-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7911-2024
Research article
 | 
11 Jul 2024
Research article |  | 11 Jul 2024

How well can persistent contrails be predicted? An update

Sina Hofer, Klaus Gierens, and Susanne Rohs

Data sets

ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1940 to present H. Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6

IAGOS-Core data IAGOS http://www.iagos.org/

Download
Short summary
We try to improve the forecast of ice supersaturation (ISS) and potential persistent contrails using data on dynamical quantities in addition to temperature and relative humidity in a modern kind of regression model. Although the results are improved, they are not good enough for flight routing. The origin of the problem is the strong overlap of probability densities conditioned on cases with and without ice-supersaturated regions (ISSRs) in the important range of 70–100 %.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint