Articles | Volume 24, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7911-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7911-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Jul 2024
Research article |
| 11 Jul 2024
| 11 Jul 2024
How well can persistent contrails be predicted? An update
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Klaus Gierens
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Susanne Rohs
Forschungszentrum Jülich, IEK-8, Jülich, Germany
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Cited
18 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Regional and seasonal impact of hydrogen propulsion systems on potential contrail cirrus cover S. Kaufmann et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aeaoa.2024.100298
- Concept of risk-aware contrail avoidance strategies A. Borella et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/jecats-1-3-2026
- Machine learning for improvement of upper-tropospheric relative humidity in ERA5 weather model data Z. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2845-2025
- Calibration of Upper Air Water Vapour Profiles Using the IPRAL Raman Lidar and ERA5 Model Results and Comparison to GRUAN Radiosonde Observations D. Alraddawi et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16030351
- Influence of temperature and humidity on contrail formation regions in the general circulation model EMAC: a spring case study P. Peter et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5911-2025
- Kinematic properties of regions that can involve persistent contrails over the North Atlantic and Europe during April and May 2024 S. Hofer & K. Gierens https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6843-2025
- Trade-offs in aviation impacts on climate favour non-CO2 mitigation M. Prather et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09198-2
- On the Weather Impact of Contrails: New Insights from Coupled ICON–CoCiP Simulations U. Schumann & A. Seifert https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18571-2025
- Investigating the limiting aircraft-design-dependent and environmental factors of persistent contrail formation L. Megill & V. Grewe https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4131-2025
- OBSERVATIONS AND MULTIVARIATE ANALYSES OF AVIATION CONTRAILS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS CONDUCTED BY LATMOS, OPGC AND LAMP IN FRANCE F. Mandija et al. https://doi.org/10.67537/ajnts3102020
- Synoptic and microphysical lifetime constraints for contrails S. Hofer & K. Gierens https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9235-2025
- Most long-lived contrails form within cirrus clouds with uncertain climate impact A. Petzold et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65532-2
- Nighttime Contrail Characterization from Multisource Lidar and Meteorological Observations F. Mandija et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18020210
- The effect of uncertainty in humidity and model parameters on the prediction of contrail energy forcing J. Platt et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad6ee5
- The social costs of aviation CO2 and contrail cirrus D. Johansson et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64355-5
- Pseudo-Monthly Raman Lidar Dataset for Reference Water Vapor Observations in the UTLS D. Alraddawi et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18081144
- Forecasting contrail climate forcing for flight planning and air traffic management applications: the CocipGrid model in pycontrails 0.51.0 Z. Engberg et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025
- Impact of forecast stability on navigational contrail avoidance T. Dean et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2634-4505/ae1da5
18 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Regional and seasonal impact of hydrogen propulsion systems on potential contrail cirrus cover S. Kaufmann et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aeaoa.2024.100298
- Concept of risk-aware contrail avoidance strategies A. Borella et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/jecats-1-3-2026
- Machine learning for improvement of upper-tropospheric relative humidity in ERA5 weather model data Z. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2845-2025
- Calibration of Upper Air Water Vapour Profiles Using the IPRAL Raman Lidar and ERA5 Model Results and Comparison to GRUAN Radiosonde Observations D. Alraddawi et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16030351
- Influence of temperature and humidity on contrail formation regions in the general circulation model EMAC: a spring case study P. Peter et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5911-2025
- Kinematic properties of regions that can involve persistent contrails over the North Atlantic and Europe during April and May 2024 S. Hofer & K. Gierens https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6843-2025
- Trade-offs in aviation impacts on climate favour non-CO2 mitigation M. Prather et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09198-2
- On the Weather Impact of Contrails: New Insights from Coupled ICON–CoCiP Simulations U. Schumann & A. Seifert https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18571-2025
- Investigating the limiting aircraft-design-dependent and environmental factors of persistent contrail formation L. Megill & V. Grewe https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4131-2025
- OBSERVATIONS AND MULTIVARIATE ANALYSES OF AVIATION CONTRAILS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS CONDUCTED BY LATMOS, OPGC AND LAMP IN FRANCE F. Mandija et al. https://doi.org/10.67537/ajnts3102020
- Synoptic and microphysical lifetime constraints for contrails S. Hofer & K. Gierens https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9235-2025
- Most long-lived contrails form within cirrus clouds with uncertain climate impact A. Petzold et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65532-2
- Nighttime Contrail Characterization from Multisource Lidar and Meteorological Observations F. Mandija et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18020210
- The effect of uncertainty in humidity and model parameters on the prediction of contrail energy forcing J. Platt et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad6ee5
- The social costs of aviation CO2 and contrail cirrus D. Johansson et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64355-5
- Pseudo-Monthly Raman Lidar Dataset for Reference Water Vapor Observations in the UTLS D. Alraddawi et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18081144
- Forecasting contrail climate forcing for flight planning and air traffic management applications: the CocipGrid model in pycontrails 0.51.0 Z. Engberg et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025
- Impact of forecast stability on navigational contrail avoidance T. Dean et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2634-4505/ae1da5
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 13 Aug 2026
Short summary
We try to improve the forecast of ice supersaturation (ISS) and potential persistent contrails using data on dynamical quantities in addition to temperature and relative humidity in a modern kind of regression model. Although the results are improved, they are not good enough for flight routing. The origin of the problem is the strong overlap of probability densities conditioned on cases with and without ice-supersaturated regions (ISSRs) in the important range of 70–100 %.
We try to improve the forecast of ice supersaturation (ISS) and potential persistent contrails...
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