Articles | Volume 21, issue 1
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 57–68, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-57-2021
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 57–68, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-57-2021

Research article 04 Jan 2021

Research article | 04 Jan 2021

Response of dust emissions in southwestern North America to 21st century trends in climate, CO2 fertilization, and land use: implications for air quality

Yang Li et al.

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Cited articles

Achakulwisut, P., Shen, L., and Mickley, L. J.: What controls springtime fine dust variability in the western United States? Investigating the 2002–2015 increase in fine dust in the U.S. Southwest, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 12449–12467, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027208, 2017. 
Achakulwisut, P., Mickley, L., and Anenberg, S.: Drought-sensitivity of fine dust in the US Southwest: Implications for air quality and public health under future climate change, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 054025, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf20, 2018. 
Ahlström, A., Schurgers, G., Arneth, A., and Smith, B.: Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 044008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044008, 2012. 
Andreadis, K. M., Clark, E. A., Wood, A. W., Hamlet, A. F., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Twentieth-century drought in the conterminous United States, J. Hydrometeorol., 6, 985–1001, 2005. 
Archer, S. R. and Predick, K. I.: Climate change and ecosystems of the southwestern United States, Rangelands, 30, 23–28, 2008. 
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Short summary
Climate models predict a shift toward warmer, drier environments in southwestern North America. Under future climate, the two main drivers of dust trends play opposing roles: (1) CO2 fertilization enhances vegetation and, in turn, decreases dust, and (2) increasing land use enhances dust emissions from northern Mexico. In the worst-case scenario, elevated dust concentrations spread widely over the domain by 2100 in spring, suggesting a large climate penalty on air quality and human health.
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