Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
ACP
Articles | Volume 21, issue 1
Articles | Volume 21, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-57-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-57-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 21, issue 1
Research article
 | 
04 Jan 2021
Research article |  | 04 Jan 2021

Response of dust emissions in southwestern North America to 21st century trends in climate, CO2 fertilization, and land use: implications for air quality

Yang Li, Loretta J. Mickley, and Jed O. Kaplan

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-57-2021-supplement

Data sets

IMPROVE datasets IMPROVE Steering Committee http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/improve

GISS-E2-R dataset NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip5/

Dataset of land use scenarios Land-use Harmonization Team http://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/RcpDb/

Model code and software

ARVE-Research/LPJ-LMfire: LPJ-LMfire (Version v1.3) J. O. Kaplan, M. Pfeiffer, and E. Chaste https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1184589

GEOS-Chem GEOS-Chem Support Team (Harvard University and Dalhousie University) http://acmg.seas.harvard.edu/geos

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Short summary
Climate models predict a shift toward warmer, drier environments in southwestern North America. Under future climate, the two main drivers of dust trends play opposing roles: (1) CO2 fertilization enhances vegetation and, in turn, decreases dust, and (2) increasing land use enhances dust emissions from northern Mexico. In the worst-case scenario, elevated dust concentrations spread widely over the domain by 2100 in spring, suggesting a large climate penalty on air quality and human health.
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