Articles | Volume 21, issue 1
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 57–68, 2021
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 57–68, 2021

Research article 04 Jan 2021

Research article | 04 Jan 2021

Response of dust emissions in southwestern North America to 21st century trends in climate, CO2 fertilization, and land use: implications for air quality

Yang Li et al.

Data sets

IMPROVE datasets IMPROVE Steering Committee

GISS-E2-R dataset NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)

Dataset of land use scenarios Land-use Harmonization Team

Model code and software

ARVE-Research/LPJ-LMfire: LPJ-LMfire (Version v1.3) J. O. Kaplan, M. Pfeiffer, and E. Chaste

GEOS-Chem GEOS-Chem Support Team (Harvard University and Dalhousie University)

Short summary
Climate models predict a shift toward warmer, drier environments in southwestern North America. Under future climate, the two main drivers of dust trends play opposing roles: (1) CO2 fertilization enhances vegetation and, in turn, decreases dust, and (2) increasing land use enhances dust emissions from northern Mexico. In the worst-case scenario, elevated dust concentrations spread widely over the domain by 2100 in spring, suggesting a large climate penalty on air quality and human health.
Final-revised paper