Articles | Volume 21, issue 20
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15771-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15771-2021
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22 Oct 2021
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 22 Oct 2021

An Arctic ozone hole in 2020 if not for the Montreal Protocol

Catherine Wilka, Susan Solomon, Doug Kinnison, and David Tarasick

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Subject: Gases | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Stratosphere | Science Focus: Chemistry (chemical composition and reactions)
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Cited articles

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We use satellite and balloon measurements to evaluate modeled ozone loss seen in the unusually cold Arctic of 2020 in the real world and compare it to simulations of a world avoided. We show that extensive denitrification in 2020 provides an important test case for stratospheric model process representations. If the Montreal Protocol had not banned ozone-depleting substances, an Arctic ozone hole would have emerged for the first time in spring 2020 that is comparable to those in the Antarctic.
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