An Arctic ozone hole in 2020 if not for the Montreal Protocol

Wilka, Catherine; Solomon, Susan; Kinnison, Doug; Tarasick, David

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15771-2021

Articles | Volume 21, issue 20

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15771-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15771-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 21, issue 20

Research article

| Highlight paper

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22 Oct 2021

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 22 Oct 2021

An Arctic ozone hole in 2020 if not for the Montreal Protocol

Catherine Wilka, Susan Solomon, Doug Kinnison, and David Tarasick

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15771-2021-supplement

Data sets

OMI/Aura TOMS-Like ozone and radiative cloud fraction L3 1 day 0.25 degree x 0.25 degree V3 P. K. Bhartia https://doi.org/10.5067/Aura/OMI/DATA3002

MLS/Aura Level 2 Nitric Acid (HNO3) Mixing Ratio V005 G. Manney, M. Santee, L. Froidevaux, N. Livesey, and W. Read https://doi.org/10.5067/Aura/MLS/DATA2511

Ozone WMO/GAW Ozone Monitoring Community, World Meteorological Organization-Global Atmosphere Watch Program (WMO-GAW) https://doi.org/10.14287/10000001

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Short summary

We use satellite and balloon measurements to evaluate modeled ozone loss seen in the unusually cold Arctic of 2020 in the real world and compare it to simulations of a world avoided. We show that extensive denitrification in 2020 provides an important test case for stratospheric model process representations. If the Montreal Protocol had not banned ozone-depleting substances, an Arctic ozone hole would have emerged for the first time in spring 2020 that is comparable to those in the Antarctic.