Articles | Volume 25, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2649-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2649-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
28 Feb 2025
Research article |
| 28 Feb 2025
| 28 Feb 2025
Investigating the response of China's surface ozone concentration to the future changes of multiple factors
Jinya Yang
State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of Environment, Nanjing University, 163 Xianlin Rd., Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
Yutong Wang
State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of Environment, Nanjing University, 163 Xianlin Rd., Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
Lei Zhang
State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of Environment, Nanjing University, 163 Xianlin Rd., Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology (CICAEET), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Jiangsu 210044, China
Yu Zhao
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of Environment, Nanjing University, 163 Xianlin Rd., Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology (CICAEET), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Jiangsu 210044, China
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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We developed a near-real-time approach that consistently estimates the daily emissions of air pollutants. Compared to previous emission inventory, the new emission estimates better supported air quality simulation and efficiently detected short-term emission change due to unexpected events at the provincial level. By combining machine learning, moreover, the major sources of temporal variability of air quality were identified for effective policy making of air pollution controls.
Mingrui Ma, Jiachen Cao, Dan Tong, Bo Zheng, and Yu Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2147–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2147-2025, 2025
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We combined two global climate change pathways and three national emission control scenarios to analyze the future evolution of reactive nitrogen (Nr) deposition till the 2060s in China with air quality modeling. We show China’s clean air and carbon neutrality policies would overcome the adverse effects of climate change and efficiently reduce Nr deposition. The outflow of Nr fluxes from mainland China to the west Pacific would also be clearly reduced from continuous stringent emission controls.
Nana Wu, Guannan Geng, Ruochong Xu, Shigan Liu, Xiaodong Liu, Qinren Shi, Ying Zhou, Yu Zhao, Huan Liu, Yu Song, Junyu Zheng, Qiang Zhang, and Kebin He
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2893–2915, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2893-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2893-2024, 2024
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The commonly used method for developing large-scale air pollutant emission datasets for China faces challenges due to limited availability of detailed parameter information. In this study, we develop an efficient integrated framework to gather such information by harmonizing seven heterogeneous inventories from five research institutions. Emission characterizations are analyzed and validated, demonstrating that the dataset provides more accurate emission magnitudes and spatiotemporal patterns.
Wenxin Zhao, Yu Zhao, Yu Zheng, Dong Chen, Jinyuan Xin, Kaitao Li, Huizheng Che, Zhengqiang Li, Mingrui Ma, and Yun Hang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6593–6612, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6593-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6593-2024, 2024
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We evaluate the long-term (2000–2020) variabilities of aerosol absorption optical depth, black carbon emissions, and associated health risks in China with an integrated framework that combines multiple observations and modeling techniques. We demonstrate the remarkable emission abatement resulting from the implementation of national pollution controls and show how human activities affected the emissions with a spatiotemporal heterogeneity, thus supporting differentiated policy-making by region.
Kaiyue Zhou, Wen Xu, Lin Zhang, Mingrui Ma, Xuejun Liu, and Yu Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8531–8551, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8531-2023, 2023
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We developed a dataset of the long-term (2005–2020) variabilities of China’s nitrogen and sulfur deposition, with multiple statistical models that combine available observations and chemistry transport modeling. We demonstrated the strong impact of human activities and national pollution control actions on the spatiotemporal changes in deposition and indicated a relatively small benefit of emission abatement on deposition (and thereby ecological risk) for China compared to Europe and the USA.
Chen Gu, Lei Zhang, Zidie Xu, Sijia Xia, Yutong Wang, Li Li, Zeren Wang, Qiuyue Zhao, Hanying Wang, and Yu Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4247–4269, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4247-2023, 2023
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We demonstrated the development of a high-resolution emission inventory and its application to evaluate the effectiveness of emission control actions, by incorporating the improved methodology, the best available data, and air quality modeling. We show that substantial efforts for emission controls indeed played an important role in air quality improvement even with worsened meteorological conditions and that the contributions of individual measures to emission reduction were greatly changing.
Yuqiang Zhang, Drew Shindell, Karl Seltzer, Lu Shen, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Qiang Zhang, Bo Zheng, Jia Xing, Zhe Jiang, and Lei Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16051–16065, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16051-2021, 2021
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In this study, we use a global chemical transport model to simulate the effects on global air quality and human health due to emission changes in China from 2010 to 2017. By performing sensitivity analysis, we found that the air pollution control policies not only decrease the air pollutant concentration but also bring significant co-benefits in air quality to downwind regions. The benefits for the improved air pollution are dominated by PM2.5.
Yan Zhang, Yu Zhao, Meng Gao, Xin Bo, and Chris P. Nielsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6411–6430, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6411-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6411-2021, 2021
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We combined air quality and exposure response models to analyze the benefits for air quality and human health of China’s ultra-low emission policy in one of its most developed regions. Atmospheric observations and the air quality model were also used to demonstrate improvement of emission inventories incorporating online emission monitoring data. With implementation of the policy in both power and industrial sectors, the attributable deaths due to PM2.5 exposure are estimated to decrease 5.5 %.
Yang Yang, Yu Zhao, Lei Zhang, Jie Zhang, Xin Huang, Xuefen Zhao, Yan Zhang, Mengxiao Xi, and Yi Lu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1191–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1191-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1191-2021, 2021
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We conducted new NOx emission estimation based on the satellite-derived NO2 column constraint and found reduced emissions compared to previous estimates for a developed region in east China. The subsequent improvement in air quality modeling was demonstrated based on available ground observations. With multiple emission reduction cases for various pollutants, we explored the effective control approaches for ozone and inorganic aerosol pollution.
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Short summary
We develop a modeling framework to predict future ozone concentrations (till the 2060s) in China following an IPCC scenario. We evaluate the contributions of climatic, anthropogenic, and biogenic factors by season and region. We find persistent emission controls will alter the nonlinear response of ozone to its precursors and dominate the declining ozone level. The outcomes highlight the importance of human actions, even with a climate penalty on air quality.
We develop a modeling framework to predict future ozone concentrations (till the 2060s) in China...
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