Articles | Volume 25, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2649-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2649-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Investigating the response of China's surface ozone concentration to the future changes of multiple factors
Jinya Yang
State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of Environment, Nanjing University, 163 Xianlin Rd., Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
Yutong Wang
State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of Environment, Nanjing University, 163 Xianlin Rd., Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
Lei Zhang
State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of Environment, Nanjing University, 163 Xianlin Rd., Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology (CICAEET), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Jiangsu 210044, China
Yu Zhao
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of Environment, Nanjing University, 163 Xianlin Rd., Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology (CICAEET), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Jiangsu 210044, China
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Cited
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Future Chronic and Acute Air Pollution Deaths in China under Climate Change and Emission Reduction M. Cui et al. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6c03570
- Machine Learning-Based Bias-Corrected Future Projections of Ozone Concentrations from a Chemistry-Climate Model Y. Ni et al. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c11992
- Comprehensive assessment of ozone tolerance in six Kentucky bluegrass cultivars: insights from growth and physiological responses X. Lv et al. https://doi.org/10.48130/grares-0025-0022
- A comparative analysis of physiological, biochemical, and molecular responses to elevated ozone identifies specific mechanisms of Kentucky bluegrass resistant cultivar X. Lv et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jes.2025.06.061
- Surface Ozone Increases over Northwest China Linked to North Pacific SST-Driven Warming Y. Han et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18111800
- Evaluation of an Australian Regional Climate Modeling System for Air Quality Application K. Cheung et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14020054
- Educational investment, technological innovation, and atmospheric environmental ffficiency: evidence from SBM-DEA and quantile regression model B. Ji et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1632050
- Divergent Ozone Predictions in China Under Carbon Neutrality: Why Chemical Mechanisms Disagree X. Weng et al. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c10697
- Concentration-oriented vs. health-oriented strategies: future anthropogenic sectoral emission reductions for PM2.5 and ozone control over eastern China Z. Long et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2026.128060
- Improved BVOC estimation accuracy by integrating high-resolution land cover and species-specific emission factor in a subtropical city C. Duan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2026.143563
- Disentangling suburban ozone enhancement in the Yangtze River Delta: Insights from meteorological-normalized machine learning Y. Shi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apr.2026.103095
- Impacts of Climate-driven Biogenic VOC Emissions on Surface Ozone and Human Health in Guangdong Province of China in 2060s J. Hu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44408-026-00140-3
- Future changes in ozone and oxidation capacity in China under the carbon peaking policy: The role of emissions and meteorology A. Shen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jes.2025.12.033
- Integrated assessment of climate–vegetation trade-offs between carbon sequestration and ozone air quality in China Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01436-2
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Future Chronic and Acute Air Pollution Deaths in China under Climate Change and Emission Reduction M. Cui et al. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6c03570
- Machine Learning-Based Bias-Corrected Future Projections of Ozone Concentrations from a Chemistry-Climate Model Y. Ni et al. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c11992
- Comprehensive assessment of ozone tolerance in six Kentucky bluegrass cultivars: insights from growth and physiological responses X. Lv et al. https://doi.org/10.48130/grares-0025-0022
- A comparative analysis of physiological, biochemical, and molecular responses to elevated ozone identifies specific mechanisms of Kentucky bluegrass resistant cultivar X. Lv et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jes.2025.06.061
- Surface Ozone Increases over Northwest China Linked to North Pacific SST-Driven Warming Y. Han et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18111800
- Evaluation of an Australian Regional Climate Modeling System for Air Quality Application K. Cheung et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14020054
- Educational investment, technological innovation, and atmospheric environmental ffficiency: evidence from SBM-DEA and quantile regression model B. Ji et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1632050
- Divergent Ozone Predictions in China Under Carbon Neutrality: Why Chemical Mechanisms Disagree X. Weng et al. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c10697
- Concentration-oriented vs. health-oriented strategies: future anthropogenic sectoral emission reductions for PM2.5 and ozone control over eastern China Z. Long et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2026.128060
- Improved BVOC estimation accuracy by integrating high-resolution land cover and species-specific emission factor in a subtropical city C. Duan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2026.143563
- Disentangling suburban ozone enhancement in the Yangtze River Delta: Insights from meteorological-normalized machine learning Y. Shi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apr.2026.103095
- Impacts of Climate-driven Biogenic VOC Emissions on Surface Ozone and Human Health in Guangdong Province of China in 2060s J. Hu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44408-026-00140-3
- Future changes in ozone and oxidation capacity in China under the carbon peaking policy: The role of emissions and meteorology A. Shen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jes.2025.12.033
- Integrated assessment of climate–vegetation trade-offs between carbon sequestration and ozone air quality in China Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01436-2
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 20 Sep 2026
Short summary
We develop a modeling framework to predict future ozone concentrations (till the 2060s) in China following an IPCC scenario. We evaluate the contributions of climatic, anthropogenic, and biogenic factors by season and region. We find persistent emission controls will alter the nonlinear response of ozone to its precursors and dominate the declining ozone level. The outcomes highlight the importance of human actions, even with a climate penalty on air quality.
We develop a modeling framework to predict future ozone concentrations (till the 2060s) in China...
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