Articles | Volume 25, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1513-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1513-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 Feb 2025
Research article |
| 04 Feb 2025
| 04 Feb 2025
Small emission sources in aggregate disproportionately account for a large majority of total methane emissions from the US oil and gas sector
Environmental Defense Fund, New York, NY 10010, USA
MethaneSAT, LLC, Austin, TX 78701, USA
Mark Omara
Environmental Defense Fund, New York, NY 10010, USA
MethaneSAT, LLC, Austin, TX 78701, USA
Anthony Himmelberger
MethaneSAT, LLC, Austin, TX 78701, USA
Daniel Zavala-Araiza
Environmental Defense Fund, New York, NY 10010, USA
Katlyn MacKay
Environmental Defense Fund, New York, NY 10010, USA
MethaneSAT, LLC, Austin, TX 78701, USA
Joshua Benmergui
Environmental Defense Fund, New York, NY 10010, USA
MethaneSAT, LLC, Austin, TX 78701, USA
Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
Maryann Sargent
Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
Steven C. Wofsy
Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
Steven P. Hamburg
Environmental Defense Fund, New York, NY 10010, USA
MethaneSAT, LLC, Austin, TX 78701, USA
Ritesh Gautam
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Environmental Defense Fund, New York, NY 10010, USA
MethaneSAT, LLC, Austin, TX 78701, USA
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Eamon K. Conway, Amir H. Souri, Joshua Benmergui, Kang Sun, Xiong Liu, Carly Staebell, Christopher Chan Miller, Jonathan Franklin, Jenna Samra, Jonas Wilzewski, Sebastien Roche, Bingkun Luo, Apisada Chulakadabba, Maryann Sargent, Jacob Hohl, Bruce Daube, Iouli Gordon, Kelly Chance, and Steven Wofsy
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Apisada Chulakadabba, Maryann Sargent, Thomas Lauvaux, Joshua S. Benmergui, Jonathan E. Franklin, Christopher Chan Miller, Jonas S. Wilzewski, Sébastien Roche, Eamon Conway, Amir H. Souri, Kang Sun, Bingkun Luo, Jacob Hawthrone, Jenna Samra, Bruce C. Daube, Xiong Liu, Kelly Chance, Yang Li, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, Jeff S. Rutherford, Evan D. Sherwin, Adam Brandt, and Steven C. Wofsy
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We show that MethaneAIR, a precursor to the MethaneSAT satellite, demonstrates accurate point source quantification during controlled release experiments and regional observations in 2021 and 2022. Results from our two independent quantification methods suggest the accuracy of our sensor and algorithms is better than 25 % for sources emitting 200 kg h−1 or more. Insights from these measurements help establish the capabilities of MethaneSAT and MethaneAIR.
Foteini Stavropoulou, Katarina Vinković, Bert Kers, Marcel de Vries, Steven van Heuven, Piotr Korbeń, Martina Schmidt, Julia Wietzel, Pawel Jagoda, Jaroslav M. Necki, Jakub Bartyzel, Hossein Maazallahi, Malika Menoud, Carina van der Veen, Sylvia Walter, Béla Tuzson, Jonas Ravelid, Randulph Paulo Morales, Lukas Emmenegger, Dominik Brunner, Michael Steiner, Arjan Hensen, Ilona Velzeboer, Pim van den Bulk, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Antonio Delre, Maklawe Essonanawe Edjabou, Charlotte Scheutz, Marius Corbu, Sebastian Iancu, Denisa Moaca, Alin Scarlat, Alexandru Tudor, Ioana Vizireanu, Andreea Calcan, Magdalena Ardelean, Sorin Ghemulet, Alexandru Pana, Aurel Constantinescu, Lucian Cusa, Alexandru Nica, Calin Baciu, Cristian Pop, Andrei Radovici, Alexandru Mereuta, Horatiu Stefanie, Alexandru Dandocsi, Bas Hermans, Stefan Schwietzke, Daniel Zavala-Araiza, Huilin Chen, and Thomas Röckmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10399–10412, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10399-2023, 2023
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In this study, we quantify CH4 emissions from onshore oil production sites in Romania at source and facility level using a combination of ground- and drone-based measurement techniques. We show that the total CH4 emissions in our studied areas are much higher than the emissions reported to UNFCCC, and up to three-quarters of the detected emissions are related to operational venting. Our results suggest that oil and gas production infrastructure in Romania holds a massive mitigation potential.
Mark Omara, Ritesh Gautam, Madeleine A. O'Brien, Anthony Himmelberger, Alex Franco, Kelsey Meisenhelder, Grace Hauser, David R. Lyon, Apisada Chulakadabba, Christopher Chan Miller, Jonathan Franklin, Steven C. Wofsy, and Steven P. Hamburg
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3761–3790, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3761-2023, 2023
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We acquire, integrate, and analyze ~ 6 million geospatial oil and gas infrastructure data records based on information available in the public domain and develop an open-access global database including all the major oil and gas facility types that are important sources of methane emissions. This work helps fulfill a crucial geospatial data need, in support of the assessment, attribution, and mitigation of global oil and gas methane emissions at high resolution.
Daniel J. Varon, Daniel J. Jacob, Benjamin Hmiel, Ritesh Gautam, David R. Lyon, Mark Omara, Melissa Sulprizio, Lu Shen, Drew Pendergrass, Hannah Nesser, Zhen Qu, Zachary R. Barkley, Natasha L. Miles, Scott J. Richardson, Kenneth J. Davis, Sudhanshu Pandey, Xiao Lu, Alba Lorente, Tobias Borsdorff, Joannes D. Maasakkers, and Ilse Aben
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7503–7520, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7503-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7503-2023, 2023
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We use TROPOMI satellite observations to quantify weekly methane emissions from the US Permian oil and gas basin from May 2018 to October 2020. We find that Permian emissions are highly variable, with diverse economic and activity drivers. The most important drivers during our study period were new well development and natural gas price. Permian methane intensity averaged 4.6 % and decreased by 1 % per year.
James P. Williams, Khalil El Hachem, and Mary Kang
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 3421–3435, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3421-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3421-2023, 2023
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Methane is powerful greenhouse gas; thus, to reduce methane emissions, it is important that the methods used to measure methane are tested and validated. The static chamber method is an enclosure-based technique that directly measures methane emissions; however, it has not been thoroughly tested for the new variety of methane sources that it is currently being used for. We find that the static chamber method can accurately measure methane emissions under a wide range of methane emission rates.
Zichong Chen, Daniel J. Jacob, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, Robert N. Stavins, Robert C. Stowe, Hannah Nesser, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Alba Lorente, Daniel J. Varon, Xiao Lu, Lu Shen, Zhen Qu, Drew C. Pendergrass, and Sarah Hancock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5945–5967, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5945-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5945-2023, 2023
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We quantify methane emissions from individual countries in the Middle East and North Africa by inverse analysis of 2019 TROPOMI satellite observations of atmospheric methane. We show that the ability to simply relate oil/gas emissions to activity metrics is compromised by stochastic nature of local infrastructure and management practices. We find that the industry target for oil/gas methane intensity is achievable through associated gas capture, modern infrastructure, and centralized operations.
Hao Guo, Clare M. Flynn, Michael J. Prather, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Louisa Emmons, Forrest Lacey, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Gus Correa, Lee T. Murray, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jason M. St. Clair, Michelle Kim, John Crounse, Glenn Diskin, Joshua DiGangi, Bruce C. Daube, Roisin Commane, Kathryn McKain, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Chelsea Thompson, Thomas F. Hanisco, Donald Blake, Nicola J. Blake, Eric C. Apel, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, James W. Elkins, Eric J. Hintsa, Fred L. Moore, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 99–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-99-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-99-2023, 2023
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We have prepared a unique and unusual result from the recent ATom aircraft mission: a measurement-based derivation of the production and loss rates of ozone and methane over the ocean basins. These are the key products of chemistry models used in assessments but have thus far lacked observational metrics. It also shows the scales of variability of atmospheric chemical rates and provides a major challenge to the atmospheric models.
Lu Shen, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, Daniel Zavala-Araiza, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Tia R. Scarpelli, Alba Lorente, David Lyon, Jianxiong Sheng, Daniel J. Varon, Hannah Nesser, Zhen Qu, Xiao Lu, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Steven P. Hamburg, and Daniel J. Jacob
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11203–11215, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11203-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11203-2022, 2022
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We use 22 months of TROPOMI satellite observations to quantity methane emissions from the oil (O) and natural gas (G) sector in the US and Canada at the scale of both individual basins as well as country-wide aggregates. We find that O/G-related methane emissions are underestimated in these inventories by 80 % for the US and 40 % for Canada, and 70 % of the underestimate in the US is from five O/G basins, including Permian, Haynesville, Anadarko, Eagle Ford, and Barnett.
Daniel J. Jacob, Daniel J. Varon, Daniel H. Cusworth, Philip E. Dennison, Christian Frankenberg, Ritesh Gautam, Luis Guanter, John Kelley, Jason McKeever, Lesley E. Ott, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Qu, Andrew K. Thorpe, John R. Worden, and Riley M. Duren
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9617–9646, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9617-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9617-2022, 2022
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We review the capability of satellite observations of atmospheric methane to quantify methane emissions on all scales. We cover retrieval methods, precision requirements, inverse methods for inferring emissions, source detection thresholds, and observations of system completeness. We show that current instruments already enable quantification of regional and national emissions including contributions from large point sources. Coverage and resolution will increase significantly in coming years.
Ilissa B. Ocko and Steven P. Hamburg
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9349–9368, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9349-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9349-2022, 2022
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Hydrogen is considered a key strategy to decarbonize the global economy. However, hydrogen is also a short-lived indirect greenhouse gas that can easily leak into the atmosphere. Given that the climate impacts from hydrogen emissions are not well understood, especially in the near term, we assess impacts over all timescales for plausible emissions rates. We find that hydrogen leakage can cause more warming than widely perceived; thus, attention is needed to minimize emissions.
Kang Sun, Mahdi Yousefi, Christopher Chan Miller, Kelly Chance, Gonzalo González Abad, Iouli E. Gordon, Xiong Liu, Ewan O'Sullivan, Christopher E. Sioris, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 3721–3745, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3721-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3721-2022, 2022
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This study of upper atmospheric airglow from oxygen is motivated by the need to measure oxygen simultaneously with methane and CO2 in satellite remote sensing. We provide an accurate understanding of the spatial, temporal, and spectral distribution of airglow emissions, which will help in the satellite remote sensing of greenhouse gases and constraining the chemical and physical processes in the upper atmosphere.
Lei Hu, Stephen A. Montzka, Fred Moore, Eric Hintsa, Geoff Dutton, M. Carolina Siso, Kirk Thoning, Robert W. Portmann, Kathryn McKain, Colm Sweeney, Isaac Vimont, David Nance, Bradley Hall, and Steven Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2891–2907, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2891-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2891-2022, 2022
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The unexpected increase in CFC-11 emissions between 2012 and 2017 resulted in concerns about delaying the stratospheric ozone recovery. Although the subsequent decline of CFC-11 emissions indicated a mitigation in part to this problem, the regions fully responsible for these large emission changes were unclear. Here, our new estimate, based on atmospheric measurements from two global campaigns and from NOAA, suggests Asia primarily contributed to the global CFC-11 emission rise during 2012–2017.
Xiao Lu, Daniel J. Jacob, Haolin Wang, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Yuzhong Zhang, Tia R. Scarpelli, Lu Shen, Zhen Qu, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Hannah Nesser, A. Anthony Bloom, Shuang Ma, John R. Worden, Shaojia Fan, Robert J. Parker, Hartmut Boesch, Ritesh Gautam, Deborah Gordon, Michael D. Moran, Frances Reuland, Claudia A. Octaviano Villasana, and Arlyn Andrews
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 395–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-395-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-395-2022, 2022
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We evaluate methane emissions and trends for 2010–2017 in the gridded national emission inventories for the United States, Canada, and Mexico by inversion of in situ and satellite methane observations. We find that anthropogenic methane emissions for all three countries are underestimated in the national inventories, largely driven by oil emissions. Anthropogenic methane emissions in the US peak in 2014, in contrast to the report of a steadily decreasing trend over 2010–2017 from the US EPA.
Eric J. Hintsa, Fred L. Moore, Dale F. Hurst, Geoff S. Dutton, Bradley D. Hall, J. David Nance, Ben R. Miller, Stephen A. Montzka, Laura P. Wolton, Audra McClure-Begley, James W. Elkins, Emrys G. Hall, Allen F. Jordan, Andrew W. Rollins, Troy D. Thornberry, Laurel A. Watts, Chelsea R. Thompson, Jeff Peischl, Ilann Bourgeois, Thomas B. Ryerson, Bruce C. Daube, Yenny Gonzalez Ramos, Roisin Commane, Gregory W. Santoni, Jasna V. Pittman, Steven C. Wofsy, Eric Kort, Glenn S. Diskin, and T. Paul Bui
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 6795–6819, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6795-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6795-2021, 2021
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We built UCATS to study atmospheric chemistry and transport. It has measured trace gases including CFCs, N2O, SF6, CH4, CO, and H2 with gas chromatography, as well as ozone and water vapor. UCATS has been part of missions to study the tropical tropopause; transport of air into the stratosphere; greenhouse gases, transport, and chemistry in the troposphere; and ozone chemistry, on both piloted and unmanned aircraft. Its design, capabilities, and some results are shown and described here.
Charles A. Brock, Karl D. Froyd, Maximilian Dollner, Christina J. Williamson, Gregory Schill, Daniel M. Murphy, Nicholas J. Wagner, Agnieszka Kupc, Jose L. Jimenez, Pedro Campuzano-Jost, Benjamin A. Nault, Jason C. Schroder, Douglas A. Day, Derek J. Price, Bernadett Weinzierl, Joshua P. Schwarz, Joseph M. Katich, Siyuan Wang, Linghan Zeng, Rodney Weber, Jack Dibb, Eric Scheuer, Glenn S. Diskin, Joshua P. DiGangi, ThaoPaul Bui, Jonathan M. Dean-Day, Chelsea R. Thompson, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Ilann Bourgeois, Bruce C. Daube, Róisín Commane, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15023–15063, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15023-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15023-2021, 2021
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The Atmospheric Tomography Mission was an airborne study that mapped the chemical composition of the remote atmosphere. From this, we developed a comprehensive description of aerosol properties that provides a unique, global-scale dataset against which models can be compared. The data show the polluted nature of the remote atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere and quantify the contributions of sea salt, dust, soot, biomass burning particles, and pollution particles to the haziness of the sky.
Hao Guo, Clare M. Flynn, Michael J. Prather, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Louisa Emmons, Forrest Lacey, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Gus Correa, Lee T. Murray, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jason M. St. Clair, Michelle Kim, John Crounse, Glenn Diskin, Joshua DiGangi, Bruce C. Daube, Roisin Commane, Kathryn McKain, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Chelsea Thompson, Thomas F. Hanisco, Donald Blake, Nicola J. Blake, Eric C. Apel, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, James W. Elkins, Eric J. Hintsa, Fred L. Moore, and Steven Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13729–13746, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13729-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13729-2021, 2021
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The NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission built a climatology of the chemical composition of tropospheric air parcels throughout the middle of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The level of detail allows us to reconstruct the photochemical budgets of O3 and CH4 over these vast, remote regions. We find that most of the chemical heterogeneity is captured at the resolution used in current global chemistry models and that the majority of reactivity occurs in the
hottest20 % of parcels.
Yenny Gonzalez, Róisín Commane, Ethan Manninen, Bruce C. Daube, Luke D. Schiferl, J. Barry McManus, Kathryn McKain, Eric J. Hintsa, James W. Elkins, Stephen A. Montzka, Colm Sweeney, Fred Moore, Jose L. Jimenez, Pedro Campuzano Jost, Thomas B. Ryerson, Ilann Bourgeois, Jeff Peischl, Chelsea R. Thompson, Eric Ray, Paul O. Wennberg, John Crounse, Michelle Kim, Hannah M. Allen, Paul A. Newman, Britton B. Stephens, Eric C. Apel, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, Benjamin A. Nault, Eric Morgan, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11113–11132, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11113-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11113-2021, 2021
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Vertical profiles of N2O and a variety of chemical species and aerosols were collected nearly from pole to pole over the oceans during the NASA Atmospheric Tomography mission. We observed that tropospheric N2O variability is strongly driven by the influence of stratospheric air depleted in N2O, especially at middle and high latitudes. We also traced the origins of biomass burning and industrial emissions and investigated their impact on the variability of tropospheric N2O.
Carly Staebell, Kang Sun, Jenna Samra, Jonathan Franklin, Christopher Chan Miller, Xiong Liu, Eamon Conway, Kelly Chance, Scott Milligan, and Steven Wofsy
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 3737–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-3737-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-3737-2021, 2021
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Given the high global warming potential of CH4, the identification and subsequent reduction of anthropogenic CH4 emissions presents a significant opportunity for climate change mitigation. Satellites are an integral piece of this puzzle, providing data to quantify emissions at a variety of spatial scales. This work presents the spectral calibration of MethaneAIR, the airborne instrument used as a test bed for the forthcoming MethaneSAT satellite.
David R. Lyon, Benjamin Hmiel, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, Katherine A. Roberts, Zachary R. Barkley, Kenneth J. Davis, Natasha L. Miles, Vanessa C. Monteiro, Scott J. Richardson, Stephen Conley, Mackenzie L. Smith, Daniel J. Jacob, Lu Shen, Daniel J. Varon, Aijun Deng, Xander Rudelis, Nikhil Sharma, Kyle T. Story, Adam R. Brandt, Mary Kang, Eric A. Kort, Anthony J. Marchese, and Steven P. Hamburg
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6605–6626, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6605-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6605-2021, 2021
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The Permian Basin (USA) is the world’s largest oil field. We use tower- and aircraft-based approaches to measure how methane emissions in the Permian Basin changed throughout 2020. In early 2020, 3.3 % of the region’s gas was emitted; then in spring 2020, the loss rate temporarily dropped to 1.9 % as oil price crashed. We find this short-term reduction to be a result of reduced well development, less gas flaring, and fewer abnormal events despite minimal reductions in oil and gas production.
Hossein Maazallahi, Julianne M. Fernandez, Malika Menoud, Daniel Zavala-Araiza, Zachary D. Weller, Stefan Schwietzke, Joseph C. von Fischer, Hugo Denier van der Gon, and Thomas Röckmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14717–14740, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14717-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14717-2020, 2020
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Methane accounts for ∼ 25 % of current climate warming. The current lack of methane measurements is a barrier for tracking major sources, which are key for near-term climate mitigation. We use mobile measurements to identify and quantify methane emission sources in Utrecht (NL) and Hamburg (DE) with a focus on natural gas pipeline leaks. The measurements resulted in fixing the major leaks by the local utility, but coordinated efforts are needed at national levels for further emission reductions.
Benjamin Birner, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Eric J. Morgan, Britton B. Stephens, Marianna Linz, Wuhu Feng, Chris Wilson, Jonathan D. Bent, Steven C. Wofsy, Jeffrey Severinghaus, and Ralph F. Keeling
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12391–12408, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12391-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12391-2020, 2020
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With new high-precision observations from nine aircraft campaigns and 3-D chemical transport modeling, we show that the argon-to-nitrogen ratio (Ar / N2) in the lowermost stratosphere provides a useful constraint on the “age of air” (the time elapsed since entry of an air parcel into the stratosphere). Therefore, Ar / N2 in combination with traditional age-of-air indicators, such as CO2 and N2O, could provide new insights into atmospheric mixing and transport.
Sara Martínez-Alonso, Merritt Deeter, Helen Worden, Tobias Borsdorff, Ilse Aben, Róisin Commane, Bruce Daube, Gene Francis, Maya George, Jochen Landgraf, Debbie Mao, Kathryn McKain, and Steven Wofsy
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 4841–4864, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4841-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4841-2020, 2020
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CO is of great importance in climate and air quality studies. To understand newly available TROPOMI data in the frame of the global CO record, we compared those to satellite (MOPITT) and airborne (ATom) CO datasets. The MOPITT dataset is the longest to date (2000–present) and is well-characterized. We used ATom to validate cloudy TROPOMI data over oceans and investigate TROPOMI's vertical sensitivity to CO. Our results show that TROPOMI CO data are in excellent agreement with the other datasets.
Ilann Bourgeois, Jeff Peischl, Chelsea R. Thompson, Kenneth C. Aikin, Teresa Campos, Hannah Clark, Róisín Commane, Bruce Daube, Glenn W. Diskin, James W. Elkins, Ru-Shan Gao, Audrey Gaudel, Eric J. Hintsa, Bryan J. Johnson, Rigel Kivi, Kathryn McKain, Fred L. Moore, David D. Parrish, Richard Querel, Eric Ray, Ricardo Sánchez, Colm Sweeney, David W. Tarasick, Anne M. Thompson, Valérie Thouret, Jacquelyn C. Witte, Steve C. Wofsy, and Thomas B. Ryerson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10611–10635, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10611-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10611-2020, 2020
Archana Dayalu, J. William Munger, Yuxuan Wang, Steven C. Wofsy, Yu Zhao, Thomas Nehrkorn, Chris Nielsen, Michael B. McElroy, and Rachel Chang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3569–3588, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3569-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3569-2020, 2020
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China has pledged to reduce carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP by 60–65 % relative to 2005 levels, and to peak carbon emissions overall by 2030. Disagreement among available inventories of Chinese emissions makes it difficult for China to track progress toward its goals and evaluate the efficacy of regional control measures. This study uses a unique set of historical atmospheric observations for the key period from 2005 to 2009 to independently evaluate three different CO2 emission estimates.
Yuzhong Zhang, Daniel J. Jacob, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Jian-Xiong Sheng, Ritesh Gautam, and John Worden
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15959–15973, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15959-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15959-2018, 2018
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We assess the potential of using satellite observations of atmospheric methane to monitor global mean tropospheric OH concentration, a key parameter for the oxidizing power of the atmosphere.
Jian-Xiong Sheng, Daniel J. Jacob, Alexander J. Turner, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Joshua Benmergui, A. Anthony Bloom, Claudia Arndt, Ritesh Gautam, Daniel Zavala-Araiza, Hartmut Boesch, and Robert J. Parker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12257–12267, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12257-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12257-2018, 2018
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Analysis of 7 years (2010–2016) of GOSAT methane trends over Canada, the contiguous US, and Mexico suggests that US methane emissions increased by 2.5 ± 1.4 % a−1 over the 7-year period, with contributions from both oil–gas systems and livestock in the Midwest. Mexican emissions show a decrease that can be attributed to a decreasing cattle population. Canadian emissions show year-to-year variability driven by wetland emissions and correlated with wetland areal extent.
Matthew N. Hayek, Marcos Longo, Jin Wu, Marielle N. Smith, Natalia Restrepo-Coupe, Raphael Tapajós, Rodrigo da Silva, David R. Fitzjarrald, Plinio B. Camargo, Lucy R. Hutyra, Luciana F. Alves, Bruce Daube, J. William Munger, Kenia T. Wiedemann, Scott R. Saleska, and Steven C. Wofsy
Biogeosciences, 15, 4833–4848, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4833-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4833-2018, 2018
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We investigated the roles that weather and forest disturbances like drought play in shaping changes in ecosystem photosynthesis and carbon exchange in an Amazon forest. We discovered that weather largely influenced differences between years, but a prior drought, which occurred 3 years before measurements started, likely hampered photosynthesis in the first year. This is the first atmospheric evidence that drought can have legacy impacts on Amazon forest photosynthesis.
Sarah A. Strode, Junhua Liu, Leslie Lait, Róisín Commane, Bruce Daube, Steven Wofsy, Austin Conaty, Paul Newman, and Michael Prather
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10955–10971, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10955-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10955-2018, 2018
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The GEOS-5 atmospheric model provided forecasts for the Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom). GEOS-5 shows skill in simulating the carbon monoxide (CO) measured in ATom-1. African fires contribute to high CO over the tropical Atlantic, but non-fire sources are the main contributors elsewhere. ATom aims to provide a chemical climatology, so we consider whether ATom-1 occurred during a typical summer month. Satellite observations suggest ATom-1 occurred in a clean but not exceptional month.
Sean Hartery, Róisín Commane, Jakob Lindaas, Colm Sweeney, John Henderson, Marikate Mountain, Nicholas Steiner, Kyle McDonald, Steven J. Dinardo, Charles E. Miller, Steven C. Wofsy, and Rachel Y.-W. Chang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 185–202, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-185-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-185-2018, 2018
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Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas but its emissions from northern regions are still poorly constrained. This study uses aircraft measurements of methane from Alaska to estimate surface emissions. We found that methane emission rates depend on the soil temperature at depths where its production was taking place, and that total emissions were similar between tundra and boreal regions. These results provide a simple way to predict methane emissions in this region.
Camille Viatte, Thomas Lauvaux, Jacob K. Hedelius, Harrison Parker, Jia Chen, Taylor Jones, Jonathan E. Franklin, Aijun J. Deng, Brian Gaudet, Kristal Verhulst, Riley Duren, Debra Wunch, Coleen Roehl, Manvendra K. Dubey, Steve Wofsy, and Paul O. Wennberg
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 7509–7528, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7509-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7509-2017, 2017
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This study estimates methane emissions at local scale in dairy farms using four new mobile ground-based remote sensing spectrometers (EM27/SUN) and isotopic in situ measurements. Our top-down estimates are in the low end of previous studies. Inverse modeling from a comprehensive high-resolution model simulations (WRF-LES) is used to assess the geographical distribution of the emissions. Both the model and the measurements indicate a mixture of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions.
Richard Wehr, Róisín Commane, J. William Munger, J. Barry McManus, David D. Nelson, Mark S. Zahniser, Scott R. Saleska, and Steven C. Wofsy
Biogeosciences, 14, 389–401, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-389-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-389-2017, 2017
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Leaf stomata influence both photosynthesis and transpiration, coupling the carbon and water cycles, but there is no direct method for estimating stomatal behavior on the ecosystem scale. We use the ecosystem–atmosphere exchange of water, heat, and carbonyl sulfide to estimate canopy-integrated stomatal conductance by two independent methods. We then use that conductance to show that the seasonal dynamics of transpiration and evaporation are different than represented in current biosphere models.
Kaniska Mallick, Ivonne Trebs, Eva Boegh, Laura Giustarini, Martin Schlerf, Darren T. Drewry, Lucien Hoffmann, Celso von Randow, Bart Kruijt, Alessandro Araùjo, Scott Saleska, James R. Ehleringer, Tomas F. Domingues, Jean Pierre H. B. Ometto, Antonio D. Nobre, Osvaldo Luiz Leal de Moraes, Matthew Hayek, J. William Munger, and Steven C. Wofsy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4237–4264, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4237-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4237-2016, 2016
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While quantifying vegetation water use over multiple plant function types in the Amazon Basin, we found substantial biophysical control during drought as well as a water-stress period and dominant climatic control during a water surplus period. This work has direct implication in understanding the resilience of the Amazon forest in the spectre of frequent drought menace as well as the role of drought-induced plant biophysical functioning in modulating the water-carbon coupling in this ecosystem.
Jacob K. Hedelius, Camille Viatte, Debra Wunch, Coleen M. Roehl, Geoffrey C. Toon, Jia Chen, Taylor Jones, Steven C. Wofsy, Jonathan E. Franklin, Harrison Parker, Manvendra K. Dubey, and Paul O. Wennberg
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 3527–3546, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-3527-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-3527-2016, 2016
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Portable FTS instruments with lower resolution are being used to measure gases (including CO2, CH4, CO, and N2O) in the atmosphere. We compared measurements from four of these instruments for a few weeks, and with one for nearly a year to a higher resolution TCCON standard. We also performed tests to assess performance under different atmospheric and instrumental conditions. We noted consistent offsets in the short-term (~1 month); more research is still needed to assess precision longer term.
Jia Chen, Camille Viatte, Jacob K. Hedelius, Taylor Jones, Jonathan E. Franklin, Harrison Parker, Elaine W. Gottlieb, Paul O. Wennberg, Manvendra K. Dubey, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8479–8498, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8479-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8479-2016, 2016
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This paper helps establish a range of new applications for compact solar-tracking Fourier transform spectrometers, and shows the capability of differential column measurements for determining urban emissions. By accurately measuring the differences in the integrated column amounts of carbon dioxide and methane across local and regional sources in California, we directly observe the mass loading of the atmosphere due to the influence of emissions in the intervening locale.
Anna Karion, Colm Sweeney, John B. Miller, Arlyn E. Andrews, Roisin Commane, Steven Dinardo, John M. Henderson, Jacob Lindaas, John C. Lin, Kristina A. Luus, Tim Newberger, Pieter Tans, Steven C. Wofsy, Sonja Wolter, and Charles E. Miller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 5383–5398, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5383-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5383-2016, 2016
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Northern high-latitude carbon sources and sinks, including those resulting from degrading permafrost, are thought to be sensitive to the rapidly warming climate. Here we use carbon dioxide and methane measurements from a tower near Fairbanks AK to investigate regional Alaskan fluxes of CO2 and CH4 for 2012–2014.
Related subject area
Subject: Climate and Earth System | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Limitations in the use of atmospheric CO2 observations to directly infer changes in the length of the biospheric carbon uptake period
Volcanic emission estimates from the inversion of ACTRIS lidar observations and their use for quantitative dispersion modeling
Emission inventory development for spatiotemporal release of vanadium from anthropogenic sources in China
Surface temperature effects of recent reductions in shipping SO2 emissions are within internal variability
Highly resolved satellite-remote-sensing-based land-use-change inventory yields weaker surface-albedo-induced global cooling
Investigating the limiting aircraft-design-dependent and environmental factors of persistent contrail formation
Measurement report: Can zenith wet delay from GNSS “see” atmospheric turbulence? Insights from case studies across diverse climate zones
Effects of 2010–2045 climate change on ozone levels in China under a carbon neutrality scenario: key meteorological parameters and processes
Cloud-radiation interactions amplify ozone pollution in a warming climate
Comment on "Can uncertainty in climate sensitivity be narrowed further?" by Sherwood and Forest (2024)
The Biogeophysical Effects of Carbon Fertilization of the Terrestrial Biosphere
Too cold, too saturated? Evaluating climate models at the gateway to the Arctic
Modelled surface climate response to effusive Icelandic volcanic eruptions: sensitivity to season and size
Contrasting the roles of regional anthropogenic aerosols from the western and eastern hemispheres in driving the 1980–2020 Pacific multi-decadal variations
A new method for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions in climate models
Climate variability can outweigh the influence of climate mean changes for extreme precipitation under global warming
Using a region-specific ice-nucleating particle parameterization improves the representation of Arctic clouds in a global climate model
Technical note: Recommendations for diagnosing cloud feedbacks and rapid cloud adjustments using cloud radiative kernels
The importance of stratocumulus clouds for projected warming patterns and circulation changes
Influence of modes of climate variability on stratospheric gravity waves in the tropics using Radio Occultation and Reanalysis Data
Satellite quantification of methane emissions from South American countries: a high-resolution inversion of TROPOMI and GOSAT observations
To what extent does the CO2 diurnal cycle impact flux estimates derived from global and regional inversions?
Can general circulation models (GCMs) represent cloud liquid water path adjustments to aerosol–cloud interactions?
Quantifying cloud masking in a single column
Constraining net long-term climate feedback from satellite-observed internal variability possible by the mid-2030s
Investigation of the characteristics of low-level jets over North America in a convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting simulation
Impacts of tropical cyclone–heat wave compound events on surface ozone in eastern China: comparison between the Yangtze River and Pearl River deltas
The 2023 global warming spike was driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation
Present-day methane shortwave absorption mutes surface warming relative to preindustrial conditions
A novel method for detecting tropopause structures based on the bi-Gaussian function
Unraveling the discrepancies between Eulerian and Lagrangian moisture tracking models in monsoon- and westerly-dominated basins of the Tibetan Plateau
Increasing aerosol direct effect despite declining global emissions in MPI-ESM1.2
Multi-scale variability of southeastern Australian wind resources
Parameterizations for global thundercloud corona discharge distributions
The importance of an informed choice of CO2-equivalence metrics for contrail avoidance
Relative humidity over ice as a key variable for Northern Hemisphere midlatitude tropopause inversion layers
Technical note: Posterior uncertainty estimation via a Monte Carlo procedure specialized for 4D-Var data assimilation
Understanding the role of contrails and contrail cirrus in climate change: a global perspective
Interannual variations in Siberian carbon uptake and carbon release period
Using historical temperature to constrain the climate sensitivity, the transient climate response, and aerosol-induced cooling
Future reduction of cold extremes over East Asia due to thermodynamic and dynamic warming
General circulation models simulate negative liquid water path–droplet number correlations, but anthropogenic aerosols still increase simulated liquid water path
Global scenarios of anthropogenic mercury emissions
Impact of Asian aerosols on the summer monsoon strongly modulated by regional precipitation biases
Opinion: Optimizing climate models with process knowledge, resolution, and artificial intelligence
Assessing methane emissions from collapsing Venezuelan oil production using TROPOMI
Simulation of ozone–vegetation coupling and feedback in China using multiple ozone damage schemes
Opinion: Can uncertainty in climate sensitivity be narrowed further?
Significant human health co-benefits of mitigating African emissions
Water vapour exchange between the atmospheric boundary layer and free troposphere over eastern China: seasonal characteristics and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation anomaly
Theertha Kariyathan, Ana Bastos, Markus Reichstein, Wouter Peters, and Julia Marshall
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7863–7878, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7863-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7863-2025, 2025
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The carbon uptake period (CUP) is the time period when land absorbs more CO2 than it emits. While atmospheric CO2 mole fraction measurements can be used to assess CUP changes, atmospheric transport and asynchronous timing across regions reduce the accuracy of the estimates. Forward model experiments show that only ~ 50 % of prescribed shifts in CUP timing applied to surface fluxes (ΔCUPNEE) are captured in simulated CO2 mole fraction data at monitoring sites like the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory.
Anna Kampouri, Vassilis Amiridis, Thanasis Georgiou, Stavros Solomos, Anna Gialitaki, Maria Tsichla, Michael Rennie, Simona Scollo, and Prodromos Zanis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7343–7368, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7343-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7343-2025, 2025
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This study proposes a novel inverse modeling framework coupled with remote sensing data for improving volcanic ash dispersion forecasts, essential for aviation safety. By integrating FLEXPART dispersion model outputs with ground-based ACTRIS lidar observations, the approach estimates Etna's volcanic particle emissions and highlights a significant enhancement in the forecast accuracy.
Han Zhang, Baogang Zhang, Bo Jiang, Qimin Li, Xuewen Hu, and Yi Xing
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5577–5589, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5577-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5577-2025, 2025
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We developed vanadium emission inventories of anthropogenic sources in China for 2015–2019. We identified five major emission sources: coal combustion, oil burning, transportation, industrial manufacture, and waste handling. Emission outputs were calculated by integrating the emission factors and activity levels of vanadium-related processes. Our results identified the key emitters and highlighted the spatial and temporal patterns of vanadium release.
Duncan Watson-Parris, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Geeta Persad, Massimo A. Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Carley E. Iles, Manoj Joshi, Marianne T. Lund, Daniel McCoy, Daniel M. Westervelt, Andrew I. L. Williams, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4443–4454, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, 2025
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In 2020, regulations by the International Maritime Organization aimed to reduce aerosol emissions from ships. These aerosols previously had a cooling effect, which the regulations might reduce, revealing more greenhouse gas warming. Here we find that, while there is regional warming, the global 2020–2040 temperature rise is only +0.03 °C. This small change is difficult to distinguish from natural climate variability, indicating the regulations have had a limited effect on observed warming to date.
Xiaohu Jian, Xiaodong Zhang, Xinrui Liu, Kaijie Chen, Tao Huang, Shu Tao, Junfeng Liu, Hong Gao, Yuan Zhao, Ruiyu Zhugu, and Jianmin Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4251–4268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4251-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4251-2025, 2025
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We implemented a new global land-use-change (LUC) dataset from 1982 to 2010 into a compact earth system model and carried out extensive multiple model scenario simulations. Our result reveals that the global radiative forcing (RF) induced by LUC driving surface albedo change is −0.12 W m−2, 20 % lower than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and vegetation changes play a key role in RF evolution, which provides an important reference for the assessment of earth energy balance.
Liam Megill and Volker Grewe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4131–4149, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4131-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4131-2025, 2025
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This study uses ERA5 data to better understand the relative importance of the factors limiting persistent contrail formation. We develop climatological relationships to estimate potential persistent contrail formation for existing as well as future aircraft and propulsion system designs. We identify latitudes and pressure levels where the introduction of novel aircraft designs would result in significant changes in potential persistent contrail formation compared to existing conventional aircraft.
Gaël Kermarrec, Xavier Calbet, Zhiguo Deng, and Cintia Carbajal Henken
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3567–3581, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3567-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3567-2025, 2025
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Atmospheric delays affect global navigation satellite system (GNSS) signals. This study analyses the wet delay, a variable component caused by atmospheric water vapor, using a novel filtering method to examine small-scale turbulent variations. Case studies at five global stations revealed daily and seasonal turbulence patterns. This research will improve water vapour and cloud models, enhance nowcasting, and refine stochastic modelling for GNSS and very long baseline interferometry.
Ling Kang, Hong Liao, Ke Li, Xu Yue, Yang Yang, and Ye Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3603–3621, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3603-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3603-2025, 2025
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Using the model of Global Change and Air Pollution version 2.0, climate change over 2010–2045 under a carbon neutrality scenario is simulated to increase summertime maximum daily 8 h average ozone (O3) levels in eastern China, the North China Plain, and the Yangtze River Delta by 2.3, 4.7, and 3.0 ppbv, respectively. Temperature, radiation, and relative humidity are the key meteorological parameters and net chemical production is the key process in climate-driven O3 increases in eastern China.
Shuyu Zhao, Tian Feng, Xuexi Tie, Biao Tian, Xiao Hu, Bo Hu, Dong Yang, Sinan Gu, and Minghu Ding
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-682, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-682, 2025
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This study investigated how cloud-radiation interactions influence ozone formation in a warming climate. Using measurements, reanalysis data and models, we found that cloud-radiation interactions can worsen O3 pollution and climate warming will amplify the influence. We highlight that climate change will pose greater challenges for China’s O3 pollution prevention and control, and actions such as reducing O3 precursors emissions and mitigating climate change are urgently needed.
Nicholas Lewis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1179, 2025
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The Opinion article that this Comment concerns challenged a 2022 study by this Comment's author that found a narrower and lower ECS level than a very influential 2020 study that had the same lead author as the Opinion article. This Comment shows that claims made in the Opinion article about that 2022 study are not true, explains why the Subjective Bayesian statistical methods favoured in the Opinion article are unreliable, and discusses structural uncertainties in climate models.
Robert James Allen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-32, 2025
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CMIP6 models are analyzed to quantify the biogeophysical (non-carbon cycle) and biogeochemical (enhanced carbon storage) effects of carbon fertilization at the time of CO2 quadrupling. The biogeophysical effects lead to relatively weak warming (0.16 ± 0.09 K ) largely due to decreases in surface latent heat flux associated with reduced canopy transpiration. Biogeochemical cooling associated with enhanced land carbon storage dominates at -1.38 K (-1.92 to -0.84 K).
Felix Pithan, Ann Kristin Naumann, and Marion Maturilli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3269–3285, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3269-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3269-2025, 2025
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Representing the exchange of air masses between the Arctic and mid-latitudes and the associated cloud formation is difficult for climate models. We compare climate model output to temperature and humidity measurements from weather balloons to provide suggestions for model improvements. Cold biases mostly occur in air that is exported from the Arctic. Models that compute the number of ice particles in a cloud better represent humidity than models that assume a fixed number of ice particles.
Tómas Zoëga, Trude Storelvmo, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2989–3010, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2989-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2989-2025, 2025
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We use an Earth system model to systematically investigate the climate response to high-latitude effusive volcanic eruptions as a function of eruption season and size, with a focus on the Arctic. We find that different seasons strongly modulate the climate response, with Arctic surface warming observed in winter and cooling in summer. Additionally, as eruptions increase in terms of sulfur dioxide emissions, the climate response becomes increasingly insensitive to variations in emission strength.
Chenrui Diao, Yangyang Xu, Aixue Hu, and Zhili Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2167–2180, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2167-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2167-2025, 2025
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Industrial aerosol increases in Asia and reductions in North America and Europe in 1980–2020 influenced climate changes over the Pacific Ocean differently. Asian aerosols caused El Niño-like temperature patterns and slightly weakened the natural variation in the North Pacific, while reduced emissions of western countries led to extensive warming in middle–high latitudes of the North Pacific. Human impacts on the Pacific climate may change when emission reduction occurs over Asia in the future.
Brandon M. Duran, Casey J. Wall, Nicholas J. Lutsko, Takuro Michibata, Po-Lun Ma, Yi Qin, Margaret L. Duffy, Brian Medeiros, and Matvey Debolskiy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2123–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2123-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2123-2025, 2025
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We use satellite simulator data generated by global climate models to investigate how aerosol particles impact the radiative properties of liquid clouds. Specifically, we quantify the radiative perturbations arising from aerosol-driven changes in the number density of cloud droplets, the vertically integrated cloud water mass, and the cloud amount. Our results show that, in models, aerosol effects on the number density of cloud droplets contribute the most to anthropogenic climate forcing.
Kalle Nordling, Nora L. S. Fahrenbach, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1659–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1659-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1659-2025, 2025
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People experience daily weather, not changes in monthly averages. We investigate the likelihood of events, which occurred once every 10 years in the pre-industrial era. We analyze how summertime precipitation and daily maximum temperature events evolve. Our focus is on understanding the role of day-to-day variability in the change in the number of extreme weather days. We find that in most regions, a change in variability is the primary driver for change in summertime extreme precipitation.
Astrid B. Gjelsvik, Robert O. David, Tim Carlsen, Franziska Hellmuth, Stefan Hofer, Zachary McGraw, Harald Sodemann, and Trude Storelvmo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1617–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1617-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1617-2025, 2025
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Ice formation in clouds has a substantial impact on radiation and precipitation and must be realistically simulated in order to understand present and future Arctic climate. Rare aerosols known as ice-nucleating particles can play an important role in cloud ice formation, but their representation in global climate models is not well suited for the Arctic. In this study, the simulation of cloud phase is improved when the representation of these particles is constrained by Arctic observations.
Mark D. Zelinka, Li-Wei Chao, Timothy A. Myers, Yi Qin, and Stephen A. Klein
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1477–1495, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1477-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1477-2025, 2025
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Clouds lie at the heart of uncertainty in both climate sensitivity and radiative forcing, making it imperative to properly diagnose their radiative effects. Here we provide a recommended methodology and code base for the community to use in performing such diagnoses using cloud radiative kernels. We show that properly accounting for changes in obscuration of lower-level clouds by upper-level clouds is important for accurate diagnosis and attribution of cloud feedbacks and adjustments.
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Peer Nowack
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-221, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-221, 2025
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We explore how Pacific low-level clouds influence projections of regional climate change by adjusting a climate model to enhance low cloud response to surface temperatures. We find significant changes in projected warming patterns and circulation changes, under increased CO2 conditions. Our findings are supported by similar relationships across state-of-the-art climate models. These results highlight the importance of accurately representing clouds for predicting regional climate change impacts.
Toyese Tunde Ayorinde, Cristiano Max Wrasse, Hisao Takahashi, Luiz Fernando Sapucci, Cosme Alexandre Oliveira Barros Figueiredo, Diego Barros, Ligia Alves da Silva, Patrick Essien, and Anderson Vestena Bilibio
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4083, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4083, 2025
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We studied how the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) interacts with atmospheric gravity waves high in the sky and how global climate patterns like El Niño affect them. Using RO, ERA5, and NCEP reanalysis data, we found that the ITCZ shifts with seasons but stays strong year-round, influencing weather and energy flow. Our findings show how climate patterns shape weather systems and help predict changes, improving understanding of the atmosphere and its effects on global climate.
Sarah E. Hancock, Daniel J. Jacob, Zichong Chen, Hannah Nesser, Aaron Davitt, Daniel J. Varon, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Nicholas Balasus, Lucas A. Estrada, María Cazorla, Laura Dawidowski, Sebastián Diez, James D. East, Elise Penn, Cynthia A. Randles, John Worden, Ilse Aben, Robert J. Parker, and Joannes D. Maasakkers
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 797–817, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-797-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-797-2025, 2025
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We quantify 2021 methane emissions in South America at up to 25 km × 25 km resolution using satellite methane observations. We find a 55 % upward adjustment to anthropogenic emission inventories, including those reported to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change under the Paris Agreement. Our estimates match inventories for Brazil, Bolivia, and Paraguay but are much higher for other countries. Livestock emissions (65 % of anthropogenic emissions) show the largest discrepancies.
Saqr Munassar, Christian Rödenbeck, Michał Gałkowski, Frank-Thomas Koch, Kai U. Totsche, Santiago Botía, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 639–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-639-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-639-2025, 2025
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CO2 mole fractions simulated over a global set of stations showed an overestimation of CO2 if the diurnal cycle is missing in biogenic fluxes. This leads to biases in the estimated fluxes derived from the regional-scale inversions. Interannual variability of estimated biogenic fluxes is also affected by the exclusion of the CO2 diurnal cycle. The findings point to the importance of including the diurnal variations of CO2 in the biogenic fluxes used as priors in global and regional inversions.
Johannes Mülmenstädt, Andrew S. Ackerman, Ann M. Fridlind, Meng Huang, Po-Lun Ma, Naser Mahfouz, Susanne E. Bauer, Susannah M. Burrows, Matthew W. Christensen, Sudhakar Dipu, Andrew Gettelman, L. Ruby Leung, Florian Tornow, Johannes Quaas, Adam C. Varble, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, and Youtong Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13633–13652, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13633-2024, 2024
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Stratocumulus clouds play a large role in Earth's climate by reflecting incoming solar energy back to space. Turbulence at stratocumulus cloud top mixes in dry, warm air, which can lead to cloud dissipation. This process is challenging for coarse-resolution global models to represent. We show that global models nevertheless agree well with our process understanding. Global models also think the process is less important for the climate than other lines of evidence have led us to conclude.
Lukas Kluft, Bjorn Stevens, Manfred Brath, and Stefan A. Buehler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3829, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3829, 2024
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Using a single column model, we investigate the effect of the vertical distribution of clouds on climate sensitivity. We show that, depending on their height, clouds can mask or unmask the radiative response of the clear-sky atmosphere. Our single column model yields an all-sky climate sensitivity of 2.2 K, slightly less than the clear-sky value. This value can be interpreted as a baseline to which changes in surface albedo and an assumed reduction in cloud albedo would add.
Alejandro Uribe, Frida A.-M. Bender, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13371–13384, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13371-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13371-2024, 2024
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Our study explores climate feedbacks, vital for understanding global warming. It links them to shifts in Earth's energy balance at the atmosphere's top due to natural temperature variations. It takes roughly 50 years to establish this connection. Combined satellite observations and reanalysis suggest that Earth cools more than expected under carbon dioxide influence. However, continuous satellite data until at least the mid-2030s are crucial for refining our understanding of climate feedbacks.
Xiao Ma, Yanping Li, Zhenhua Li, and Fei Huo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12013–12030, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12013-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12013-2024, 2024
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This study uses 4 km Weather Research and Forecasting simulations to investigate the features of low-level jets (LLJs) in North America. It identifies significant LLJ systems, such as the Great Plains LLJ. It also provides insight into LLJs poorly captured in coarser models, such as the northerly Quebec LLJ and the small-scale, low-level wind maxima around the Rocky Mountains. Furthermore, the study examines different physical mechanisms of forming three distinct types of LLJs.
Cuini Qi, Pinya Wang, Yang Yang, Huimin Li, Hui Zhang, Lili Ren, Xipeng Jin, Chenchao Zhan, Jianping Tang, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11775–11789, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11775-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11775-2024, 2024
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We investigate extremely hot weather impacts on surface ozone over the southeastern coast of China with and without tropical cyclones. Compared to hot days alone, ozone concentration decreased notably in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) but increased in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) during tropical cyclones and hot days. The YRD benefited from strong and clean sea winds aiding ozone elimination. In contrast, the PRD experienced strong northeasterly winds that potentially transport ozone pollution.
Shiv Priyam Raghuraman, Brian Soden, Amy Clement, Gabriel Vecchi, Sofia Menemenlis, and Wenchang Yang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11275–11283, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11275-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11275-2024, 2024
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The rapid global warming of 2023 has led to concerns that it could be externally driven. Here we show that climate models subject only to internal variability predict such warming spikes but rarely (p~1.6 %). However, when a prolonged La Niña immediately precedes an El Niño, as occurred leading up to 2023, such spikes are not uncommon (p~10.3 %). Virtually all of the spikes occur during an El Niño, strongly suggesting that internal variability drove the 2023 warming.
Robert J. Allen, Xueying Zhao, Cynthia A. Randles, Ryan J. Kramer, Bjørn H. Samset, and Christopher J. Smith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11207–11226, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11207-2024, 2024
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Present-day methane shortwave absorption mutes 28% (7–55%) of the surface warming associated with its longwave absorption. The precipitation increase associated with the longwave radiative effects of the present-day methane perturbation is also muted by shortwave absorption but not significantly so. Methane shortwave absorption also impacts the magnitude of its climate feedback parameter, largely through the cloud feedback.
Kun Zhang, Tao Luo, Xuebin Li, Shengcheng Cui, Ningquan Weng, Yinbo Huang, and Yingjian Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11157–11173, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11157-2024, 2024
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In order to deeply understand the formation mechanisms and evolution processes associated with vertical tropopause structures, this study proposes a new method for identifying the multiple characteristic parameters of vertical tropopause structures by fitting temperature profiles using the bi-Gaussian function. The identification results from the bi-Gaussian method are more reasonable and more consistent with the evolution process of atmospheric thermal stratifications.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Qiuhong Tang, Shibo Yao, Bo Sun, Hui Peng, and Shangbin Xiao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10741–10758, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10741-2024, 2024
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For moisture tracking over the Tibetan Plateau, we recommend using high-resolution forcing datasets, prioritizing temporal resolution over spatial resolution for WAM2layers, while for FLEXPART coupled with WaterSip, we suggest applying bias corrections to optimize the filtering of precipitation particles and adjust evaporation estimates.
Antoine Hermant, Linnea Huusko, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10707–10715, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10707-2024, 2024
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Aerosol particles, from natural and human sources, have a cooling effect on the climate, partially offsetting global warming. They do this through direct (sunlight reflection) and indirect (cloud property alteration) mechanisms. Using a global climate model, we found that, despite declining emissions, the direct effect of human aerosols has increased while the indirect effect has decreased, which is attributed to the shift in emissions from North America and Europe to Southeast Asia.
Claire L. Vincent and Andrew J. Dowdy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10209–10223, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10209-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10209-2024, 2024
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We investigate how wind speed at the height of a wind turbine changes during El Niño and La Niña years and with season and time of day in southeastern Australia. We found that El Niño and La Niña can cause average wind speed differences of around 1 m s-1 in some regions. The highest wind speeds occur in the afternoon or evening around mountains or the coast and during the night for inland areas. The results help show how placement of wind turbines can help balance electricity generation.
Sergio Soler, Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez, Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón, Patrick Jöckel, Torsten Neubert, Olivier Chanrion, Victor Reglero, and Nikolai Østgaard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10225–10243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10225-2024, 2024
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Sudden local ozone (O3) enhancements have been reported in different regions of the world since the 1970s. While the hot channel of lightning strokes directly produce significant amounts of nitrogen oxide, no direct emission of O3 is expected. Corona discharges in convective active regions could explain local O3 increases, which remains unexplained. We present the first mathematical functions that relate the global annual frequency of in-cloud coronas with four sets of meteorological variables.
Audran Borella, Olivier Boucher, Keith P. Shine, Marc Stettler, Katsumasa Tanaka, Roger Teoh, and Nicolas Bellouin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9401–9417, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9401-2024, 2024
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This work studies how to compare the climate impact of the CO2 emitted and contrails formed by a flight. This is applied to contrail avoidance strategies that would decrease climate impact of flights by changing the trajectory of aircraft to avoid persistent contrail formation, at the risk of increasing CO2 emissions. We find that different comparison methods lead to different quantification of the total climate impact of a flight but lead to similar decisions of whether to reroute an aircraft.
Daniel Köhler, Philipp Reutter, and Peter Spichtinger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10055–10072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10055-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10055-2024, 2024
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In this work, the influence of humidity on the properties of the tropopause is studied. The tropopause is the interface between the troposphere and the stratosphere and represents a barrier for the transport of air masses between the troposphere and the stratosphere. We consider not only the tropopause itself, but also a layer around it called the tropopause inversion layer (TIL). It is shown that the moister the underlying atmosphere is, the more this layer acts as a barrier.
Michael Stanley, Mikael Kuusela, Brendan Byrne, and Junjie Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9419–9433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9419-2024, 2024
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To serve the uncertainty quantification (UQ) needs of 4D-Var data assimilation (DA) practitioners, we describe and justify a UQ algorithm from carbon flux inversion and incorporate its sampling uncertainty into the final reported UQ. The algorithm is mathematically proved, and its performance is shown for a carbon flux observing system simulation experiment. These results legitimize and generalize this algorithm's current use and make available this effective algorithm to new DA domains.
Dharmendra Kumar Singh, Swarnali Sanyal, and Donald J. Wuebbles
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9219–9262, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9219-2024, 2024
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Radiative forcing of contrails could triple by 2050 due to increased air traffic and potential changes in flight altitudes. Factors like air traffic patterns, fuel efficiency, alternative fuels, and climate change further influence this impact. By highlighting gaps in knowledge and uncertainties, this research helps set priorities for future studies and assess strategies to mitigate the environmental impact of aviation emissions.
Dieu Anh Tran, Christoph Gerbig, Christian Rödenbeck, and Sönke Zaehle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8413–8440, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024, 2024
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The analysis of the atmospheric CO2 record from the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory (ZOTTO) in central Siberia shows significant increases in the length and amplitude of the CO2 uptake and release in the 2010–2021 period. The trend shows a stronger increase in carbon release amplitude compared to the uptake, suggesting that, despite enhanced growing season uptake, during this period climate warming did not elevate the annual net CO2 uptake as cold-season respirations also responded to the warming.
Olaf Morgenstern
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8105–8123, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8105-2024, 2024
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I use errors in climate model simulations to derive correction factors for the impacts of greenhouse gases and particles that bring these simulated temperature fields into agreement with an observational reconstruction of the Earth's temperature. On average across eight models, a reduction by about one-half of the particle-induced cooling would be required, causing only 0.24 K of cooling since 1850–1899. The greenhouse gas warming simulated by several highly sensitive models would also reduce.
Donghuan Li, Tianjun Zhou, Youcun Qi, Liwei Zou, Chao Li, Wenxia Zhang, and Xiaolong Chen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7347–7358, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7347-2024, 2024
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Two sets of climate model simulations are used to investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic factors of future change in cold extremes in East Asia. Dynamic factor accounted for over 80 % of cold-month temperature anomalies in past 50 years. The intensity of cold extreme is expected to decrease by 5 ℃, with thermodynamic factor contributing ~ 75 % by the end of the 21st century. Changes in dynamic factor are driven by an upward trend of positive Arctic Oscillation-like sea level pressure pattern.
Johannes Mülmenstädt, Edward Gryspeerdt, Sudhakar Dipu, Johannes Quaas, Andrew S. Ackerman, Ann M. Fridlind, Florian Tornow, Susanne E. Bauer, Andrew Gettelman, Yi Ming, Youtong Zheng, Po-Lun Ma, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, Matthew W. Christensen, Adam C. Varble, L. Ruby Leung, Xiaohong Liu, David Neubauer, Daniel G. Partridge, Philip Stier, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7331–7345, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7331-2024, 2024
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Human activities release copious amounts of small particles called aerosols into the atmosphere. These particles change how much sunlight clouds reflect to space, an important human perturbation of the climate, whose magnitude is highly uncertain. We found that the latest climate models show a negative correlation but a positive causal relationship between aerosols and cloud water. This means we need to be very careful when we interpret observational studies that can only see correlation.
Flora Maria Brocza, Peter Rafaj, Robert Sander, Fabian Wagner, and Jenny Marie Jones
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7385–7404, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7385-2024, 2024
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To understand how atmospheric mercury levels will change in the future, we model how anthropogenic Hg releases will change following developments in human energy use and mercury use and efforts to reduce pollution and battle climate change. Overall, the findings emphasize that it will be necessary to implement targeted Hg control measures in addition to stringent climate and clean air policies to achieve significant reductions in Hg emissions.
Zhen Liu, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Laura J. Wilcox
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7227–7252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7227-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7227-2024, 2024
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The aerosol impact on monsoon precipitation and circulation is strongly influenced by a model-simulated spatio-temporal variability in the climatological monsoon precipitation across Asia, which critically modulates the efficacy of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions, the predominant driver of the total aerosol response. There is a strong interplay between South Asia and East Asia monsoon precipitation biases and their relative predominance in driving the overall monsoon response.
Tapio Schneider, L. Ruby Leung, and Robert C. J. Wills
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7041–7062, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7041-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7041-2024, 2024
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Climate models are crucial for predicting climate change in detail. This paper proposes a balanced approach to improving their accuracy by combining traditional process-based methods with modern artificial intelligence (AI) techniques while maximizing the resolution to allow for ensemble simulations. The authors propose using AI to learn from both observational and simulated data while incorporating existing physical knowledge to reduce data demands and improve climate prediction reliability.
Brian Nathan, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Stijn Naus, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, Daniel J. Varon, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Lucas A. Estrada, Alba Lorente, Tobias Borsdorff, Robert J. Parker, and Ilse Aben
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6845–6863, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6845-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6845-2024, 2024
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Venezuela's Lake Maracaibo region is notoriously hard to observe from space and features intensive oil exploitation, although production has strongly decreased in recent years. We estimate methane emissions using 2018–2020 TROPOMI satellite observations with national and regional transport models. Despite the production decrease, we find relatively constant emissions from Lake Maracaibo between 2018 and 2020, indicating that there could be large emissions from abandoned infrastructure.
Jiachen Cao, Xu Yue, and Mingrui Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3973–3987, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3973-2024, 2024
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We implemented two widely used ozone damage schemes into a same regional model. Although the two schemes yielded distinct ozone vegetation damages, they predicted similar feedbacks to surface air temperature and ozone air quality in China. Our results highlighted the significance of ozone pollution control given its detrimental impacts on ecosystem functions, contributions to global warming, and amplifications of ozone pollution through ozone–vegetation coupling.
Steven C. Sherwood and Chris E. Forest
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2679–2686, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2679-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2679-2024, 2024
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The most fundamental parameter used to gauge the severity of future climate change is the so-called equilibrium climate sensitivity, which measures the warming that would ultimately occur due to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Due to recent advances it is now thought to probably lie in the range 2.5–4 °C. We discuss this and the issues involved in evaluating and using the number, pointing to some pitfalls in current efforts but also possibilities for further progress.
Christopher D. Wells, Matthew Kasoar, Majid Ezzati, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1025–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1025-2024, 2024
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Human-driven emissions of air pollutants, mostly caused by burning fossil fuels, impact both the climate and human health. Millions of deaths each year are caused by air pollution globally, and the future trends are uncertain. Here, we use a global climate model to study the effect of African pollutant emissions on surface level air pollution, and resultant impacts on human health, in several future emission scenarios. We find much lower health impacts under cleaner, lower-emission futures.
Xipeng Jin, Xuhui Cai, Xuesong Wang, Qianqian Huang, Yu Song, Ling Kang, Hongsheng Zhang, and Tong Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 259–274, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-259-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-259-2024, 2024
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This work presents a climatology of water vapour exchange flux between the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) and free troposphere (FT) over eastern China. The water vapour exchange maintains ABL humidity in cold months and moistens the FT in warm seasons, and its distribution has terrain-dependent features. The exchange flux is correlated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index and precipitation pattern. The study provides new insight into moisture transport and extreme weather.
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Short summary
We utilize peer-reviewed facility-level oil and gas methane emission rate data gathered in prior work to estimate the relative contributions of methane sources emitting at different emission rates in the United States. We find that the majority of total methane emissions in the US oil and gas sector stem from a large number of small sources emitting in aggregate, corroborating findings from several other studies.
We utilize peer-reviewed facility-level oil and gas methane emission rate data gathered in prior...
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