Articles | Volume 23, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7033-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7033-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Jun 2023
Research article |
| 26 Jun 2023
| 26 Jun 2023
Large-eddy simulation of a two-layer boundary-layer cloud system from the Arctic Ocean 2018 expedition
Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research,
Stockholm University, Stockholm 106 91, Sweden
Julien Savre
Meteorological Institute, Fakultät für Physik,
Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Munich 80333, Germany
Michael Tjernström
Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research,
Stockholm University, Stockholm 106 91, Sweden
Caroline Leck
Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research,
Stockholm University, Stockholm 106 91, Sweden
Annica M. L. Ekman
Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research,
Stockholm University, Stockholm 106 91, Sweden
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Roman Pohorsky, Heather Guy, Ian M. Brooks, Lea Haberstock, Nicolas Fauré, Paul Zieger, Julia Kojoj, Sonja Murto, Radiance Calmer, Benjamin Heutte, Michael Lonardi, Erik S. Thomson, Michael Tjernström, Jessie Creamean, Athanasios Nenes, and Julia Schmale
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1068, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1068, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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This study presents tethered-balloon observations above Arctic sea ice showing that enhanced aerosol concentrations above low-level clouds are commonly observed. A closure analysis demonstrates that entrainment of these aerosols is required to reproduce observed cloud droplet numbers. Simulations indicate that neglecting this source can bias longwave radiative forcing, highlighting the need for vertical aerosol observations and improved model representation of aerosol entrainment at cloud top.
Timothy W. Juliano, Florian Tornow, Ann M. Fridlind, Andrew S. Ackerman, Gregory S. Elsaesser, Bart Geerts, Christian P. Lackner, David Painemal, Israel Silber, Mikhail Ovchinnikov, Gunilla Svensson, Michael Tjernström, Peng Wu, Alejandro Baró Pérez, Peter Bogenschutz, Dmitry Chechin, Kamal Kant Chandrakar, Jan Chylik, Andrey Debolskiy, Rostislav Fadeev, Anu Gupta, Luisa Ickes, Michail Karalis, Martin Köhler, Branko Kosović, Peter Kuma, Weiwei Li, Evgeny Mortikov, Hugh Morrison, Roel A. J. Neggers, Anna Possner, Tomi Raatikainen, Sami Romakkaniemi, Niklas Schnierstein, Shin-ichiro Shima, Nikita Silin, Mikhail Tolstykh, Lulin Xue, Meng Zhang, and Xue Zheng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6217, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6217, 2026
Preprint archived
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Models struggle to capture cloud and precipitation processes and their radiative effects in marine cold-air outbreaks. We use a quasi-Lagrangian framework to compare large-eddy simulation (LES) and single-column model (SCM) output with field and satellite observations. With fixed droplet and ice numbers, LES and SCM agree in liquid-only tests. In mixed-phase conditions, LES plausibly capture cloud thinning and breakup, while SCMs largely remain overcast and thereby miss cloud radiative effects.
Hao Ding, Almuth Neuberger, Rahul Ranjan, Fredrik Mattsson, Liine Heikkinen, Karam Mansour, Stefano Decesari, Claudia Mohr, Alejandro Baró Pérez, Nazario Mastroianni, Paul Zieger, Ilona Riipinen, and Annica M. L. Ekman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6435, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6435, 2026
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Fog poses numerous risks to society, yet it remains challenging to forecast. We use detailed numerical simulations based on fog observations in the Po Valley, Italy, to demonstrate that high concentrations of aerosol particles, as in polluted air, lead to an increase in droplet number, prolonged fog duration, and reduced visibility. The simulations also show the importance of accurately representing haze particles and the shape of the droplet size distribution for improved fog prediction.
Rahul Ranjan, Maura Dewey, Liine Heikkinen, Lauri R. Ahonen, Krista Luoma, Paul Bowen, Tuukka Petäjä, Annica M. L. Ekman, Daniel G. Partridge, and Ilona Riipinen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 17275–17300, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17275-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17275-2025, 2025
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We use multi-year measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) at a boreal forest site to inversely infer size-resolved aerosol chemical composition. We find that inorganic species are more enriched in the larger end (accumulation mode) of the sub-micron aerosol population while organics often dominate the smaller end (Aitken mode). Our approach demonstrates the potential of long-term CCN measurements to infer size-resolved chemical composition of sub-micron aerosol.
Caroline Leck, Jost Heintzenberg, Tiina Nygård, and Tuomas Naakka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 16775–16795, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16775-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16775-2025, 2025
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Five summer cruises of the Swedish icebreaker Oden in the inner Arctic in 1990, 1996, 2001, 2008, and 2018 provided a unique dataset on the seasonal distribution of atmospheric aerosol. Coupling these data with the seasonal sea ice distribution strongly indicated a regional biogenic aerosol source during late summer and early autumn freeze-up conditions. Given the expected further warming of the Arctic, we hypothesize an increase in biogenic aerosol in late summer and autumn.
Almuth Neuberger, Rahul Ranjan, Hao Ding, Fredrik Mattsson, Lea Haberstock, Darrel Baumgardner, Stefano Decesari, Annica M. L. Ekman, Dagen D. Hughes, Claudia Mohr, Marco Paglione, Ilona Riipinen, Matteo Rinaldi, and Paul Zieger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5419, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5419, 2025
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We studied how particles from air pollution that absorb water but do not yet form fog droplets influence fog and visibility in northern Italy’s Po Valley. Using detailed field observations and computer modeling, we found that these “hydrated” particles can explain many low-visibility events. Recognizing their role helps improve forecasts of fog, air quality, and climate effects in polluted regions.
Michail Karalis, Gunilla Svensson, Manfred Wendisch, and Michael Tjernström
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 13177–13198, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13177-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13177-2025, 2025
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During the spring warm-air intrusion captured by HALO-(𝒜𝒞)3, the air mass demonstrated a column-like structure. We built a Lagrangian modeling framework using a single-column model (AOSCM) to simulate the air mass transformation. Comparing to observations, reanalysis, and forecast data, we found that the Lagrangian AOSCM can successfully reproduce the main features of the transformation. The Lagrangian AOSCM can be used for future model development to improve Arctic weather and climate prediction.
Theresa Mathes, Heather Guy, John Prytherch, Julia Kojoj, Ian Brooks, Sonja Murto, Paul Zieger, Birgit Wehner, Michael Tjernström, and Andreas Held
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8455–8474, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8455-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8455-2025, 2025
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The Arctic is warming faster than the global average and an investigation of aerosol–cloud–sea ice interactions is crucial for studying its climate system. During the ARTofMELT Expedition 2023, particle and sensible heat fluxes were measured over different surfaces. Wide lead surfaces acted as particle sources, with the strongest sensible heat fluxes, while closed ice surfaces acted as particle sinks. In this study, methods to measure these interactions are improved, enhancing our understanding of Arctic climate processes.
Tuomas Naakka, Daniel Köhler, Kalle Nordling, Petri Räisänen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Bjørn H. Samset, Victoria A. Sinclair, Jennie L. Thomas, and Annica M. L. Ekman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8127–8145, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8127-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8127-2025, 2025
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The effects of warmer sea surface temperatures and decreasing sea ice cover on polar climates have been studied using four climate models with identical prescribed changes in sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover. The models predict similar changes in air temperature and precipitation in the polar regions in a warmer climate with less sea ice. However, the models disagree on how the atmospheric circulation, i.e. the large-scale winds, will change with warmer temperatures and less sea ice.
Duncan Watson-Parris, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Geeta Persad, Massimo A. Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Carley E. Iles, Manoj Joshi, Marianne T. Lund, Daniel McCoy, Daniel M. Westervelt, Andrew I. L. Williams, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4443–4454, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, 2025
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In 2020, regulations by the International Maritime Organization aimed to reduce aerosol emissions from ships. These aerosols previously had a cooling effect, which the regulations might reduce, revealing more greenhouse gas warming. Here we find that, while there is regional warming, the global 2020–2040 temperature rise is only +0.03 °C. This small change is difficult to distinguish from natural climate variability, indicating the regulations have had a limited effect on observed warming to date.
Dominic Heslin-Rees, Peter Tunved, Diego Aliaga, Janne Lampilahti, Ilona Riipinen, Annica Ekman, Ki-Tae Park, Martina Mazzini, Stefania Gilardoni, Roseline Thakur, Kihong Park, Young Jun Yoon, Kitack Lee, Mikko Sipilä, Mauro Mazzola, and Radovan Krejci
Aerosol Research Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-2025-11, https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-2025-11, 2025
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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New particles form in the atmosphere and can influence the climate. We studied Arctic new particle formation (NPF) from 2022 to 2024 at the Zeppelin Observatory, on Svalbard. NPF occurs from April to November, peaking in late spring as sunlight increases. Some particles measured on-site grow large enough to seed clouds. Sunlight and existing aerosol particles strongly impact the likelihood of NPF, which mainly originates from marine regions, particularly the Greenland Sea.
Luís Filipe Escusa dos Santos, Hannah C. Frostenberg, Alejandro Baró Pérez, Annica M. L. Ekman, Luisa Ickes, and Erik S. Thomson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 119–142, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-119-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-119-2025, 2025
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The Arctic is experiencing enhanced surface warming. The observed decline in Arctic sea-ice extent is projected to lead to an increase in Arctic shipping activity, which may lead to further climatic feedbacks. Using an atmospheric model and results from marine engine experiments that focused on fuel sulfur content reduction and exhaust wet scrubbing, we investigate how ship exhaust particles influence the properties of Arctic clouds. Implications for radiative surface processes are discussed.
Alejandro Baró Pérez, Michael S. Diamond, Frida A.-M. Bender, Abhay Devasthale, Matthias Schwarz, Julien Savre, Juha Tonttila, Harri Kokkola, Hyunho Lee, David Painemal, and Annica M. L. Ekman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4591–4610, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4591-2024, 2024
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We use a numerical model to study interactions between humid light-absorbing aerosol plumes, clouds, and radiation over the southeast Atlantic. We find that the warming produced by the aerosols reduces cloud cover, especially in highly polluted situations. Aerosol impacts on drizzle play a minor role. However, aerosol effects on cloud reflectivity and moisture-induced changes in cloud cover dominate the climatic response and lead to an overall cooling by the biomass burning plumes.
Dominic Heslin-Rees, Peter Tunved, Johan Ström, Roxana Cremer, Paul Zieger, Ilona Riipinen, Annica M. L. Ekman, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, and Radovan Krejci
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2059–2075, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2059-2024, 2024
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Light-absorbing atmospheric particles (e.g. black carbon – BC) exert a warming effect on the Arctic climate. We show that the amount of particle light absorption decreased from 2002 to 2023. We conclude that in addition to reductions in emissions of BC, wet removal plays a role in the long-term reduction of BC in the Arctic, given the increase in surface precipitation experienced by air masses arriving at the site. The potential impact of biomass burning events is shown to have increased.
John Prytherch, Sonja Murto, Ian Brown, Adam Ulfsbo, Brett F. Thornton, Volker Brüchert, Michael Tjernström, Anna Lunde Hermansson, Amanda T. Nylund, and Lina A. Holthusen
Biogeosciences, 21, 671–688, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-671-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-671-2024, 2024
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We directly measured methane and carbon dioxide exchange between ocean or sea ice and the atmosphere during an icebreaker-based expedition to the central Arctic Ocean (CAO) in summer 2021. These measurements can help constrain climate models and carbon budgets. The methane measurements, the first such made in the CAO, are lower than previous estimates and imply that the CAO is an insignificant contributor to Arctic methane emission. Gas exchange rates are slower than previous estimates.
Gillian Young McCusker, Jutta Vüllers, Peggy Achtert, Paul Field, Jonathan J. Day, Richard Forbes, Ruth Price, Ewan O'Connor, Michael Tjernström, John Prytherch, Ryan Neely III, and Ian M. Brooks
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4819–4847, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4819-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4819-2023, 2023
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In this study, we show that recent versions of two atmospheric models – the Unified Model and Integrated Forecasting System – overestimate Arctic cloud fraction within the lower troposphere by comparison with recent remote-sensing measurements made during the Arctic Ocean 2018 expedition. The overabundance of cloud is interlinked with the modelled thermodynamic structure, with strong negative temperature biases coincident with these overestimated cloud layers.
Cheng You, Michael Tjernström, and Abhay Devasthale
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8037–8057, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8037-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8037-2022, 2022
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In winter when solar radiation is absent in the Arctic, the poleward transport of heat and moisture into the high Arctic becomes the main contribution of Arctic warming. Over completely frozen ocean sectors, total surface energy budget is dominated by net long-wave heat, while over the Barents Sea, with an open ocean to the south, total net surface energy budget is dominated by the surface turbulent heat.
Tiina Nygård, Michael Tjernström, and Tuomas Naakka
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1263–1282, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1263-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1263-2021, 2021
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Temperature and humidity profiles in the Arctic atmosphere in winter are affected by both the large-scale dynamics and the local processes, such as radiation, cloud formation and turbulence. The results show that the influence of different large-scale flows on temperature and humidity profiles must be viewed as a progressing set of processes. Within the Arctic, there are notable regional differences in how large-scale flows affect the temperature and specific humidity profiles.
Erik Johansson, Abhay Devasthale, Michael Tjernström, Annica M. L. Ekman, Klaus Wyser, and Tristan L'Ecuyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4087–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4087-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4087-2021, 2021
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Understanding the coupling of clouds to large-scale circulation is a grand challenge for the climate community. Cloud radiative heating (CRH) is a key parameter in this coupling and is therefore essential to model realistically. We, therefore, evaluate a climate model against satellite observations. Our findings indicate good agreement in the seasonal pattern of CRH even if the magnitude differs. We also find that increasing the horizontal resolution in the model has little effect on the CRH.
Georgia Sotiropoulou, Luisa Ickes, Athanasios Nenes, and Annica M. L. Ekman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9741–9760, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9741-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9741-2021, 2021
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Mixed-phase clouds are a large source of uncertainty in projections of the Arctic climate. This is partly due to the poor representation of the cloud ice formation processes. Implementing a parameterization for ice multiplication due to mechanical breakup upon collision of two ice particles in a high-resolution model improves cloud ice phase representation; however, cloud liquid remains overestimated.
Alejandro Baró Pérez, Abhay Devasthale, Frida A.-M. Bender, and Annica M. L. Ekman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6053–6077, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6053-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6053-2021, 2021
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We study the impacts of above-cloud biomass burning plumes on radiation and clouds over the southeast Atlantic using data derived from satellite observations and data-constrained model simulations. A substantial amount of the aerosol within the plumes is not classified as smoke by the satellite. The atmosphere warms more with increasing smoke aerosol loading. No clear influence of aerosol type, loading, or moisture within the overlying aerosol plumes is detected on the cloud top cooling rates.
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Short summary
We use numerical modeling with detailed cloud microphysics to investigate a low-altitude cloud system consisting of two cloud layers – a type of cloud situation which was commonly observed during the summer of 2018 in the central Arctic (north of 80° N). The model generally reproduces the observed cloud layers and the thermodynamic structure of the lower atmosphere well. The cloud system is maintained unless there are low aerosol number concentrations or high large-scale wind speeds.
We use numerical modeling with detailed cloud microphysics to investigate a low-altitude cloud...
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