Articles | Volume 22, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14503-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14503-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Nov 2022
Research article |
| 15 Nov 2022
| 15 Nov 2022
The simulation of mineral dust in the United Kingdom Earth System Model UKESM1
Stephanie Woodward
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Alistair A. Sellar
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Yongming Tang
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Marc Stringer
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Andrew Yool
National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK
Eddy Robertson
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Andy Wiltshire
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
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Anthony C. Jones, Adrian Hill, John Hemmings, Pascal Lemaitre, Arnaud Quérel, Claire L. Ryder, and Stephanie Woodward
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11381–11407, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11381-2022, 2022
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As raindrops fall to the ground, they capture aerosol (i.e. below-cloud scavenging or BCS). Many different BCS schemes are available to climate models, and it is unclear what the impact of selecting one scheme over another is. Here, various BCS models are outlined and then applied to mineral dust in climate model simulations. We find that dust concentrations are highly sensitive to the BCS scheme, with dust atmospheric lifetimes ranging from 5 to 44 d.
Jane P. Mulcahy, Colin Johnson, Colin G. Jones, Adam C. Povey, Catherine E. Scott, Alistair Sellar, Steven T. Turnock, Matthew T. Woodhouse, Nathan Luke Abraham, Martin B. Andrews, Nicolas Bellouin, Jo Browse, Ken S. Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Matthew Glover, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Catherine Hardacre, Richard Hill, Ben Johnson, Andy Jones, Zak Kipling, Graham Mann, James Mollard, Fiona M. O'Connor, Julien Palmiéri, Carly Reddington, Steven T. Rumbold, Mark Richardson, Nick A. J. Schutgens, Philip Stier, Marc Stringer, Yongming Tang, Jeremy Walton, Stephanie Woodward, and Andrew Yool
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Aerosols are an important component of the Earth system. Here, we comprehensively document and evaluate the aerosol schemes as implemented in the physical and Earth system models, HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1. This study provides a useful characterisation of the aerosol climatology in both models, facilitating the understanding of the numerous aerosol–climate interaction studies that will be conducted for CMIP6 and beyond.
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Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
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Camilla Mathison, Eleanor Burke, Andrew J. Hartley, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle Burton, Eddy Robertson, Nicola Gedney, Karina Williams, Andy Wiltshire, Richard J. Ellis, Alistair A. Sellar, and Chris D. Jones
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Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and acidification in surface waters. We review the representation of alkalinity and the associated calcium carbonate cycle in Earth system models. While many parameterizations remain present in the latest generation of models, there is a general improvement in the simulated alkalinity distribution. This improvement is related to an increase in the export of biotic calcium carbonate, which closer resembles observations.
Jane P. Mulcahy, Colin G. Jones, Steven T. Rumbold, Till Kuhlbrodt, Andrea J. Dittus, Edward W. Blockley, Andrew Yool, Jeremy Walton, Catherine Hardacre, Timothy Andrews, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, Marc Stringer, Lee de Mora, Phil Harris, Richard Hill, Doug Kelley, Eddy Robertson, and Yongming Tang
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11381–11407, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11381-2022, 2022
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As raindrops fall to the ground, they capture aerosol (i.e. below-cloud scavenging or BCS). Many different BCS schemes are available to climate models, and it is unclear what the impact of selecting one scheme over another is. Here, various BCS models are outlined and then applied to mineral dust in climate model simulations. We find that dust concentrations are highly sensitive to the BCS scheme, with dust atmospheric lifetimes ranging from 5 to 44 d.
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Laurent Bopp, Jim R. Christian, Tatiana Ilyina, John P. Krasting, Roland Séférian, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Jerry Tjiputra
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Mahdi André Nakhavali, Lina M. Mercado, Iain P. Hartley, Stephen Sitch, Fernanda V. Cunha, Raffaello di Ponzio, Laynara F. Lugli, Carlos A. Quesada, Kelly M. Andersen, Sarah E. Chadburn, Andy J. Wiltshire, Douglas B. Clark, Gyovanni Ribeiro, Lara Siebert, Anna C. M. Moraes, Jéssica Schmeisk Rosa, Rafael Assis, and José L. Camargo
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5241–5269, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5241-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5241-2022, 2022
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In tropical ecosystems, the availability of rock-derived elements such as P can be very low. Thus, without a representation of P cycling, tropical forest responses to rising atmospheric CO2 conditions in areas such as Amazonia remain highly uncertain. We introduced P dynamics and its interactions with the N and P cycles into the JULES model. Our results highlight the potential for high P limitation and therefore lower CO2 fertilization capacity in the Amazon forest with low-fertility soils.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
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The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Reint Fischer, Delphine Lobelle, Merel Kooi, Albert Koelmans, Victor Onink, Charlotte Laufkötter, Linda Amaral-Zettler, Andrew Yool, and Erik van Sebille
Biogeosciences, 19, 2211–2234, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2211-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2211-2022, 2022
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Since current estimates show that only about 1 % of the all plastic that enters the ocean is floating at the surface, we look at subsurface processes that can cause vertical movement of (micro)plastic. We investigate how modelled algal attachment and the ocean's vertical movement can cause particles to sink and oscillate in the open ocean. Particles can sink to depths of > 5000 m in regions with high wind intensity and mainly remain close to the surface with low winds and biological activity.
Charles J. R. Williams, Alistair A. Sellar, Xin Ren, Alan M. Haywood, Peter Hopcroft, Stephen J. Hunter, William H. G. Roberts, Robin S. Smith, Emma J. Stone, Julia C. Tindall, and Daniel J. Lunt
Clim. Past, 17, 2139–2163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2139-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2139-2021, 2021
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Computer simulations of the geological past are an important tool to improve our understanding of climate change. We present results from a simulation of the mid-Pliocene (approximately 3 million years ago) using the latest version of the UK’s climate model. The simulation reproduces temperatures as expected and shows some improvement relative to previous versions of the same model. The simulation is, however, arguably too warm when compared to other models and available observations.
Josué Bock, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Manabu Abe, Jane P. Mulcahy, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Jörg Schwinger, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Jerry Tjiputra, Marco van Hulten, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Roland Séférian
Biogeosciences, 18, 3823–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, 2021
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In this study we analyse surface ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentration and flux to the atmosphere from four CMIP6 Earth system models over the historical and ssp585 simulations.
Our analysis of contemporary (1980–2009) climatologies shows that models better reproduce observations in mid to high latitudes. The models disagree on the sign of the trend of the global DMS flux from 1980 onwards. The models agree on a positive trend of DMS over polar latitudes following sea-ice retreat dynamics.
Andrew Yool, Julien Palmiéri, Colin G. Jones, Lee de Mora, Till Kuhlbrodt, Ekatarina E. Popova, A. J. George Nurser, Joel Hirschi, Adam T. Blaker, Andrew C. Coward, Edward W. Blockley, and Alistair A. Sellar
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3437–3472, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3437-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3437-2021, 2021
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The ocean plays a key role in modulating the Earth’s climate. Understanding this role is critical when using models to project future climate change. Consequently, it is necessary to evaluate their realism against the ocean's observed state. Here we validate UKESM1, a new Earth system model, focusing on the realism of its ocean physics and circulation, as well as its biological cycles and productivity. While we identify biases, generally the model performs well over a wide range of properties.
Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tammas Loughran, Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Felix Havermann, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniel S. Goll, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Benjamin Poulter, Stephen Sitch, Michael O. Sullivan, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Soenke Zaehle, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 635–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, 2021
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We provide the first spatio-temporally explicit comparison of different model-derived fluxes from land use and land cover changes (fLULCCs) by using the TRENDY v8 dynamic global vegetation models used in the 2019 global carbon budget. We find huge regional fLULCC differences resulting from environmental assumptions, simulated periods, and the timing of land use and land cover changes, and we argue for a method consistent across time and space and for carefully choosing the accounting period.
Zichong Chen, Junjie Liu, Daven K. Henze, Deborah N. Huntzinger, Kelley C. Wells, Stephen Sitch, Pierre Friedlingstein, Emilie Joetzjer, Vladislav Bastrikov, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Benjamin Poulter, Hanqin Tian, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Scot M. Miller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6663–6680, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6663-2021, 2021
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NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite observes atmospheric CO2 globally. We use a multiple regression and inverse model to quantify the relationships between OCO-2 and environmental drivers within individual years for 2015–2018 and within seven global biomes. Our results point to limitations of current space-based observations for inferring environmental relationships but also indicate the potential to inform key relationships that are very uncertain in process-based models.
Andrew J. Wiltshire, Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris D. Jones, Peter M. Cox, Taraka Davies-Barnard, Pierre Friedlingstein, Anna B. Harper, Spencer Liddicoat, Stephen Sitch, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2161–2186, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, 2021
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Limited nitrogen availbility can restrict the growth of plants and their ability to assimilate carbon. It is important to include the impact of this process on the global land carbon cycle. This paper presents a model of the coupled land carbon and nitrogen cycle, which is included within the UK Earth System model to improve projections of climate change and impacts on ecosystems.
Daniele Peano, Deborah Hemming, Stefano Materia, Christine Delire, Yuanchao Fan, Emilie Joetzjer, Hanna Lee, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Taejin Park, Philippe Peylin, David Wårlind, Andy Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 2405–2428, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2405-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2405-2021, 2021
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Global climate models are the scientist’s tools used for studying past, present, and future climate conditions. This work examines the ability of a group of our tools in reproducing and capturing the right timing and length of the season when plants show their green leaves. This season, indeed, is fundamental for CO2 exchanges between land, atmosphere, and climate. This work shows that discrepancies compared to observations remain, demanding further polishing of these tools.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
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We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Paul T. Griffiths, Catherine Hardacre, Ben T. Johnson, Ron Kahana, James Keeble, Byeonghyeon Kim, Olaf Morgenstern, Jane P. Mulcahy, Mark Richardson, Eddy Robertson, Jeongbyn Seo, Sungbo Shim, João C. Teixeira, Steven T. Turnock, Jonny Williams, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Stephanie Woodward, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1211–1243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, 2021
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This paper calculates how changes in emissions and/or concentrations of different atmospheric constituents since the pre-industrial era have altered the Earth's energy budget at the present day using a metric called effective radiative forcing. The impact of land use change is also assessed. We find that individual contributions do not add linearly, and different Earth system interactions can affect the magnitude of the calculated effective radiative forcing.
Camilla Mathison, Andrew J. Challinor, Chetan Deva, Pete Falloon, Sébastien Garrigues, Sophie Moulin, Karina Williams, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 437–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-437-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-437-2021, 2021
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Sequential cropping (also known as multiple or double cropping) is a common cropping system, particularly in tropical regions. Typically, land surface models only simulate a single crop per year. To understand how sequential crops influence surface fluxes, we implement sequential cropping in JULES to simulate all the crops grown within a year at a given location in a seamless way. We demonstrate the method using a site in Avignon, four locations in India and a regional run for two Indian states.
Jane P. Mulcahy, Colin Johnson, Colin G. Jones, Adam C. Povey, Catherine E. Scott, Alistair Sellar, Steven T. Turnock, Matthew T. Woodhouse, Nathan Luke Abraham, Martin B. Andrews, Nicolas Bellouin, Jo Browse, Ken S. Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Matthew Glover, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Catherine Hardacre, Richard Hill, Ben Johnson, Andy Jones, Zak Kipling, Graham Mann, James Mollard, Fiona M. O'Connor, Julien Palmiéri, Carly Reddington, Steven T. Rumbold, Mark Richardson, Nick A. J. Schutgens, Philip Stier, Marc Stringer, Yongming Tang, Jeremy Walton, Stephanie Woodward, and Andrew Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6383–6423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020, 2020
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Aerosols are an important component of the Earth system. Here, we comprehensively document and evaluate the aerosol schemes as implemented in the physical and Earth system models, HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1. This study provides a useful characterisation of the aerosol climatology in both models, facilitating the understanding of the numerous aerosol–climate interaction studies that will be conducted for CMIP6 and beyond.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020
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The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Felix Leung, Karina Williams, Stephen Sitch, Amos P. K. Tai, Andy Wiltshire, Jemma Gornall, Elizabeth A. Ainsworth, Timothy Arkebauer, and David Scoby
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6201–6213, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6201-2020, 2020
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Ground-level ozone (O3) is detrimental to plant productivity and crop yield. Currently, the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) includes a representation of crops (JULES-crop). The parameters for O3 damage in soybean in JULES-crop were calibrated against photosynthesis measurements from the Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment (SoyFACE). The result shows good performance for yield, and it helps contribute to understanding of the impacts of climate and air pollution on food security.
Steven T. Turnock, Robert J. Allen, Martin Andrews, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa Emmons, Peter Good, Larry Horowitz, Jasmin G. John, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, David Neubauer, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Alistair Sellar, Sungbo Shim, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14547–14579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, 2020
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A first assessment is made of the historical and future changes in air pollutants from models participating in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Substantial benefits to future air quality can be achieved in future scenarios that implement measures to mitigate climate and involve reductions in air pollutant emissions, particularly methane. However, important differences are shown between models in the future regional projection of air pollutants under the same scenario.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Johannes Meyerholt, Sönke Zaehle, Pierre Friedlingstein, Victor Brovkin, Yuanchao Fan, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, Hanna Lee, Daniele Peano, Benjamin Smith, David Wårlind, and Andy J. Wiltshire
Biogeosciences, 17, 5129–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, 2020
Lee de Mora, Alistair A. Sellar, Andrew Yool, Julien Palmieri, Robin S. Smith, Till Kuhlbrodt, Robert J. Parker, Jeremy Walton, Jeremy C. Blackford, and Colin G. Jones
Geosci. Commun., 3, 263–278, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-263-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-263-2020, 2020
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We use time series data from the first United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM1) to create six procedurally generated musical pieces for piano. Each of the six pieces help to explain either a scientific principle or a practical aspect of Earth system modelling. We describe the methods that were used to create these pieces, discuss the limitations of this pilot study and list several approaches to extend and expand upon this work.
Arthur P. K. Argles, Jonathan R. Moore, Chris Huntingford, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Anna B. Harper, Chris D. Jones, and Peter M. Cox
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4067–4089, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4067-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4067-2020, 2020
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The Robust Ecosystem Demography (RED) model simulates cohorts of vegetation through mass classes. RED establishes a framework for representing demographic changes through competition, growth, and mortality across the size distribution of a forest. The steady state of the model can be solved analytically, enabling initialization. When driven by mean growth rates from a land-surface model, RED is able to fit the observed global vegetation map, giving a map of implicit mortality rates.
Vivek K. Arora, Anna Katavouta, Richard G. Williams, Chris D. Jones, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, James R. Christian, Christine Delire, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Emilie Joetzjer, Michio Kawamiya, Charles D. Koven, John P. Krasting, Rachel M. Law, David M. Lawrence, Andrew Lenton, Keith Lindsay, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Andy Wiltshire, Tongwen Wu, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020
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Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
Christopher J. Smith, Ryan J. Kramer, Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, William Collins, Adriana Sima, Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Seiji Yukimoto, Jason Cole, David Paynter, Hideo Shiogama, Fiona M. O'Connor, Eddy Robertson, Andy Wiltshire, Timothy Andrews, Cécile Hannay, Ron Miller, Larissa Nazarenko, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Stephanie Fiedler, Anna Lewinschal, Chloe Mackallah, Martin Dix, Robert Pincus, and Piers M. Forster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9591–9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, 2020
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The spread in effective radiative forcing for both CO2 and aerosols is narrower in the latest CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) generation than in CMIP5. For the case of CO2 it is likely that model radiation parameterisations have improved. Tropospheric and stratospheric radiative adjustments to the forcing behave differently for different forcing agents, and there is still significant diversity in how clouds respond to forcings, particularly for total anthropogenic forcing.
Veronika Eyring, Lisa Bock, Axel Lauer, Mattia Righi, Manuel Schlund, Bouwe Andela, Enrico Arnone, Omar Bellprat, Björn Brötz, Louis-Philippe Caron, Nuno Carvalhais, Irene Cionni, Nicola Cortesi, Bas Crezee, Edouard L. Davin, Paolo Davini, Kevin Debeire, Lee de Mora, Clara Deser, David Docquier, Paul Earnshaw, Carsten Ehbrecht, Bettina K. Gier, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Paul Goodman, Stefan Hagemann, Steven Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Alasdair Hunter, Christopher Kadow, Stephan Kindermann, Sujan Koirala, Nikolay Koldunov, Quentin Lejeune, Valerio Lembo, Tomas Lovato, Valerio Lucarini, François Massonnet, Benjamin Müller, Amarjiit Pandde, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Adam Phillips, Valeriu Predoi, Joellen Russell, Alistair Sellar, Federico Serva, Tobias Stacke, Ranjini Swaminathan, Verónica Torralba, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Jost von Hardenberg, Katja Weigel, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3383–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020, 2020
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The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool designed to improve comprehensive and routine evaluation of earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). It has undergone rapid development since the first release in 2016 and is now a well-tested tool that provides end-to-end provenance tracking to ensure reproducibility.
Simon Jones, Lucy Rowland, Peter Cox, Deborah Hemming, Andy Wiltshire, Karina Williams, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Junjie Liu, Antonio C. L. da Costa, Patrick Meir, Maurizio Mencuccini, and Anna B. Harper
Biogeosciences, 17, 3589–3612, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3589-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3589-2020, 2020
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Non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) are an important set of molecules that help plants to grow and respire when photosynthesis is restricted by extreme climate events. In this paper we present a simple model of NSC storage and assess the effect that it has on simulations of vegetation at the ecosystem scale. Our model has the potential to significantly change predictions of plant behaviour in global vegetation models, which would have large implications for predictions of the future climate.
Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Torres, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Matthew Chamberlain, James R. Christian, John P. Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Andrew Lenton, Hongmei Li, Nicole S. Lovenduski, James C. Orr, Julien Palmieri, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Charles A. Stock, Alessandro Tagliabue, Yohei Takano, Jerry Tjiputra, Katsuya Toyama, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020
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We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models. These models represent the most up-to-date understanding of climate change. The models generally project greater surface ocean warming, acidification, subsurface deoxygenation, and euphotic nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than the previous generation of models. This has major implications for the impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
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The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Doug McNeall, Jonny Williams, Richard Betts, Ben Booth, Peter Challenor, Peter Good, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2487–2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2487-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2487-2020, 2020
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In the climate model FAMOUS, matching the modelled Amazon rainforest to observations required different land surface parameter settings than for other forests. It was unclear if this discrepancy was due to a bias in the modelled climate or an error in the land surface component of the model. Correcting the climate of the model with a statistical model corrects the simulation of the Amazon forest, suggesting that the land surface component of the model is not the source of the discrepancy.
Alexander T. Archibald, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Fraser Dennison, Sandip S. Dhomse, Paul T. Griffiths, Catherine Hardacre, Alan J. Hewitt, Richard S. Hill, Colin E. Johnson, James Keeble, Marcus O. Köhler, Olaf Morgenstern, Jane P. Mulcahy, Carlos Ordóñez, Richard J. Pope, Steven T. Rumbold, Maria R. Russo, Nicholas H. Savage, Alistair Sellar, Marc Stringer, Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, and Guang Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1223–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1223-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1223-2020, 2020
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Here we present a description and evaluation of the UKCA stratosphere–troposphere chemistry scheme (StratTrop vn 1.0) implemented in the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1). UKCA StratTrop represents a substantial step forward compared to previous versions of UKCA. We show here that it is fully suited to the challenges of representing interactions in a coupled Earth system model and identify key areas and components for future development that will make it even better in the future.
Andrew J. Wiltshire, Maria Carolina Duran Rojas, John M. Edwards, Nicola Gedney, Anna B. Harper, Andrew J. Hartley, Margaret A. Hendry, Eddy Robertson, and Kerry Smout-Day
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 483–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-483-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-483-2020, 2020
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We present the Global Land (GL) configuration of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). JULES-GL7 can be used to simulate the exchange of heat, water and momentum over land and is therefore applicable for helping understand past and future changes, and forms the land component of the HadGEM3-GC3.1 climate model. The configuration is freely available subject to licence restrictions.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
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The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
David Walters, Anthony J. Baran, Ian Boutle, Malcolm Brooks, Paul Earnshaw, John Edwards, Kalli Furtado, Peter Hill, Adrian Lock, James Manners, Cyril Morcrette, Jane Mulcahy, Claudio Sanchez, Chris Smith, Rachel Stratton, Warren Tennant, Lorenzo Tomassini, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Simon Vosper, Martin Willett, Jo Browse, Andrew Bushell, Kenneth Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, Richard Essery, Nicola Gedney, Steven Hardiman, Ben Johnson, Colin Johnson, Andy Jones, Colin Jones, Graham Mann, Sean Milton, Heather Rumbold, Alistair Sellar, Masashi Ujiie, Michael Whitall, Keith Williams, and Mohamed Zerroukat
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1909–1963, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1909-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1909-2019, 2019
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Global Atmosphere (GA) configurations of the Unified Model (UM) and Global Land (GL) configurations of JULES are developed for use in any global atmospheric modelling application. We describe a recent iteration of these configurations, GA7/GL7, which includes new aerosol and snow schemes and addresses the four critical errors identified in GA6. GA7/GL7 will underpin the UK's contributions to CMIP6, and hence their documentation is important.
Sarah Shannon, Robin Smith, Andy Wiltshire, Tony Payne, Matthias Huss, Richard Betts, John Caesar, Aris Koutroulis, Darren Jones, and Stephan Harrison
The Cryosphere, 13, 325–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, 2019
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We present global glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding 2 °C global average warming. The ice loss contribution to sea level rise for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet is 215.2 ± 21.3 mm. Such large ice losses will have consequences for sea level rise and for water supply in glacier-fed river systems.
Matthew P. Couldrey, Kevin I. C. Oliver, Andrew Yool, Paul R. Halloran, and Eric P. Achterberg
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-16, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Determining how much carbon dioxide (CO2) the oceans absorb is key to predicting human-caused climate change. A computer model of the ocean shows how the North Atlantic will change up to the end of the century. Year-to-year variations are mostly caused by changes in ocean temperature and seawater chemistry, altering CO2 solubility. By 2100, human emissions cause the biggest changes. The near term changes are physically driven, which may be more predictable than biological changes.
Chantelle Burton, Richard Betts, Manoel Cardoso, Ted R. Feldpausch, Anna Harper, Chris D. Jones, Douglas I. Kelley, Eddy Robertson, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 179–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-179-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-179-2019, 2019
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Fire and land-use change are important disturbances within the Earth system, and their inclusion in models is critical to enable the correct simulation of vegetation cover. Here we describe developments to the land surface model JULES to represent explicit land-use change and fire and to assess the effects of each process on present day vegetation compared to observations. Using historical land-use data and the fire model INFERNO, overall model results are improved by the developments.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope A. Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott C. Doney, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Forrest M. Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Truls Johannessen, Chris D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsueno Ono, Prabir Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne Sutton, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Rebecca Wright, Sönke Zaehle, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2141–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2018 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Ben A. Ward, Jamie D. Wilson, Ros M. Death, Fanny M. Monteiro, Andrew Yool, and Andy Ridgwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4241–4267, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4241-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4241-2018, 2018
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A novel configuration of an Earth system model includes a diverse plankton community. The model – EcoGEnIE – is sufficiently complex to reproduce a realistic, size-structured plankton community, while at the same time retaining the efficiency to run to a global steady state (~ 10k years). The increased capabilities of EcoGEnIE will allow future exploration of ecological communities on much longer timescales than have so far been examined in global ocean models and particularly for past climate.
Lee de Mora, Andrew Yool, Julien Palmieri, Alistair Sellar, Till Kuhlbrodt, Ekaterina Popova, Colin Jones, and J. Icarus Allen
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4215–4240, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4215-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4215-2018, 2018
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Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on the Earth's weather, ice caps, land surface, and ocean. Computer models of the Earth system are the only tools available to make predictions about how the climate may change in the future. However, in order to trust the model predictions, we must first demonstrate that the models have a realistic description of the past. The BGC-val toolkit was built to rapidly and simply evaluate the behaviour of models of the Earth's oceans.
Jun Wang, Ning Zeng, Meirong Wang, Fei Jiang, Jingming Chen, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Ziqiang Jiang, Weimin Ju, Sebastian Lienert, Julia Nabel, Stephen Sitch, Nicolas Viovy, Hengmao Wang, and Andrew J. Wiltshire
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10333–10345, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10333-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10333-2018, 2018
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Based on the Mauna Loa CO2 records and TRENDY multi-model historical simulations, we investigate the different impacts of EP and CP El Niños on interannual carbon cycle variability. Composite analysis indicates that the evolutions of CO2 growth rate anomalies have three clear differences in terms of precursors (negative and neutral), amplitudes (strong and weak), and durations of peak (Dec–Apr and Oct–Jan) during EP and CP El Niños, respectively. We further discuss their terrestrial mechanisms.
Anna B. Harper, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Peter M. Cox, Pierre Friedlingstein, Chris D. Jones, Lina M. Mercado, Stephen Sitch, Karina Williams, and Carolina Duran-Rojas
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2857–2873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2857-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2857-2018, 2018
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Dynamic global vegetation models are used for studying historical and future changes to vegetation and the terrestrial carbon cycle. JULES is a DGVM that represents the land surface in the UK Earth System Model. We compared simulated gross and net primary productivity of vegetation, vegetation distribution, and aspects of the transient carbon cycle to observational datasets. JULES was able to accurately reproduce many aspects of the terrestrial carbon cycle with the recent improvements.
Gregory Duveiller, Giovanni Forzieri, Eddy Robertson, Wei Li, Goran Georgievski, Peter Lawrence, Andy Wiltshire, Philippe Ciais, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Almut Arneth, and Alessandro Cescatti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1265–1279, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1265-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1265-2018, 2018
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Changing the vegetation cover of the Earth's surface can alter the local energy balance, which can result in a local warming or cooling depending on the specific vegetation transition, its timing and location, as well as on the background climate. While models can theoretically simulate these effects, their skill is not well documented across space and time. Here we provide a dedicated framework to evaluate such models against measurements derived from satellite observations.
Stephan Harrison, Jeffrey S. Kargel, Christian Huggel, John Reynolds, Dan H. Shugar, Richard A. Betts, Adam Emmer, Neil Glasser, Umesh K. Haritashya, Jan Klimeš, Liam Reinhardt, Yvonne Schaub, Andy Wiltshire, Dhananjay Regmi, and Vít Vilímek
The Cryosphere, 12, 1195–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018, 2018
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Most mountain glaciers have receded throughout the last century in response to global climate change. This recession produces a range of natural hazards including glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). We have produced the first global inventory of GLOFs associated with the failure of moraine dams and show, counterintuitively, that these have reduced in frequency over recent decades. In this paper we explore the reasons for this pattern.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz, Andrew C. Manning, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Oliver D. Andrews, Vivek K. Arora, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Meike Becker, Richard A. Betts, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Catherine E. Cosca, Jessica Cross, Kim Currie, Thomas Gasser, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Christopher W. Hunt, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Markus Kautz, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Ivan Lima, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Yukihiro Nojiri, X. Antonio Padin, Anna Peregon, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Janet Reimer, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Steven van Heuven, Nicolas Viovy, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Watson, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Dan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 405–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2017 describes data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. It is the 12th annual update and the 6th published in this journal.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Shushi Peng, Chao Yue, Yilong Wang, Martin Thurner, Sassan S. Saatchi, Almut Arneth, Valerio Avitabile, Nuno Carvalhais, Anna B. Harper, Etsushi Kato, Charles Koven, Yi Y. Liu, Julia E.M.S. Nabel, Yude Pan, Julia Pongratz, Benjamin Poulter, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Maurizio Santoro, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin D. Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, Rasoul Yousefpour, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 14, 5053–5067, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, 2017
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We used several observation-based biomass datasets to constrain the historical land-use change carbon emissions simulated by models. Compared to the range of the original modeled emissions (from 94 to 273 Pg C), the observationally constrained global cumulative emission estimate is 155 ± 50 Pg C (1σ Gaussian error) from 1901 to 2012. Our approach can also be applied to evaluate the LULCC impact of land-based climate mitigation policies.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Ray Weiss, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
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Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
Karina Williams, Jemma Gornall, Anna Harper, Andy Wiltshire, Debbie Hemming, Tristan Quaife, Tim Arkebauer, and David Scoby
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1291–1320, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1291-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1291-2017, 2017
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This study looks in detail at how well the crop model within the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), a community land-surface model, is able to simulate irrigated maize in Nebraska. We use the results to point to future priorities for model development and describe how our methodology can be adapted to set up model runs for other sites and crop varieties.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
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An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Doug McNeall, Jonny Williams, Ben Booth, Richard Betts, Peter Challenor, Andy Wiltshire, and David Sexton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 917–935, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-917-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-917-2016, 2016
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We compare simulated with observed forests to constrain uncertain input parameters of the land surface component of a climate model.
We find that the model is unlikely to be able to simulate the Amazon and other major forests simultaneously at any one parameter set, suggesting a bias in the model's representation of the Amazon.
We find we cannot constrain parameters individually, but we can rule out large areas of joint parameter space.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Andrew C. Manning, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Richard A. Houghton, Ralph F. Keeling, Simone Alin, Oliver D. Andrews, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Kim Currie, Christine Delire, Scott C. Doney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thanos Gkritzalis, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Mario Hoppema, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Kevin O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Joe Salisbury, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrienne J. Sutton, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 605–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, 2016
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The Global Carbon Budget 2016 is the 11th annual update of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. This data synthesis brings together measurements, statistical information, and analyses of model results in order to provide an assessment of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties for years 1959 to 2015, with a projection for year 2016.
Fang Zhao, Ning Zeng, Ghassem Asrar, Pierre Friedlingstein, Akihiko Ito, Atul Jain, Eugenia Kalnay, Etsushi Kato, Charles D. Koven, Ben Poulter, Rashid Rafique, Stephen Sitch, Shijie Shu, Beni Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, and Sonke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 13, 5121–5137, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016, 2016
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The increasing seasonality of atmospheric CO2 is strongly linked with enhanced land vegetation activities in the last 5 decades, for which the importance of increasing CO2, climate and land use/cover change was evaluated in single model studies (Zeng et al., 2014; Forkel et al., 2016). Here we examine the relative importance of these factors in multiple models. Our results highlight models can show similar results in some benchmarks with different underlying regional dynamics.
Claudie Beaulieu, Harriet Cole, Stephanie Henson, Andrew Yool, Thomas R. Anderson, Lee de Mora, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Momme Butenschön, Ian J. Totterdell, and J. Icarus Allen
Biogeosciences, 13, 4533–4553, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4533-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4533-2016, 2016
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Regime shifts have been suggested in the late 1970s and late 1980s in the Gulf of Alaska with important consequences for fisheries. Here we investigate the ability of a suite of ocean biogeochemical models of varying complexity to simulate these regime shifts. Our results demonstrate that ocean models can successfully simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska region, thereby improving our understanding of how changes in physical conditions are propagated from lower to upper trophic levels.
Anna B. Harper, Peter M. Cox, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris D. Jones, Stephen Sitch, Lina M. Mercado, Margriet Groenendijk, Eddy Robertson, Jens Kattge, Gerhard Bönisch, Owen K. Atkin, Michael Bahn, Johannes Cornelissen, Ülo Niinemets, Vladimir Onipchenko, Josep Peñuelas, Lourens Poorter, Peter B. Reich, Nadjeda A. Soudzilovskaia, and Peter van Bodegom
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2415–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2415-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2415-2016, 2016
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Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are used to predict the response of vegetation to climate change. We improved the representation of carbon uptake by ecosystems in a DGVM by including a wider range of trade-offs between nutrient allocation to photosynthetic capacity and leaf structure, based on observed plant traits from a worldwide data base. The improved model has higher rates of photosynthesis and net C uptake by plants, and more closely matches observations at site and global scales.
G. Murray-Tortarolo, P. Friedlingstein, S. Sitch, V. J. Jaramillo, F. Murguía-Flores, A. Anav, Y. Liu, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, A. Harper, A. Jain, E. Kato, C. Koven, B. Poulter, B. D. Stocker, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Biogeosciences, 13, 223–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, 2016
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We modelled the carbon (C) cycle in Mexico for three different time periods: past (20th century), present (2000-2005) and future (2006-2100). We used different available products to estimate C stocks and fluxes in the country. Contrary to other current estimates, our results showed that Mexico was a C sink and this is likely to continue in the next century (unless the most extreme climate-change scenarios are reached).
C. Mathison, A. J. Wiltshire, P. Falloon, and A. J. Challinor
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4783–4810, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4783-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4783-2015, 2015
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South Asia is a highly variable region where there is concern over water and food security. The simulations presented suggest an increasing trend in water resources, in some cases almost doubling by the end of the century although this is masked by the large annual variability of river flows for this region. Future peak river flows still occur during the monsoon period, with a tendency for reduced frequency of lowest flows and increased magnitude of highest flows across the selected locations.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, S. Sitch, J. I. Korsbakken, P. Friedlingstein, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, T. A. Boden, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, R. F. Keeling, P. Tans, A. Arneth, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Barbero, L. Bopp, J. Chang, F. Chevallier, L. P. Chini, P. Ciais, M. Fader, R. A. Feely, T. Gkritzalis, I. Harris, J. Hauck, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, E. Kato, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, P. Landschützer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, N. Metzl, F. Millero, D. R. Munro, A. Murata, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S. Nakaoka, Y. Nojiri, K. O'Brien, A. Olsen, T. Ono, F. F. Pérez, B. Pfeil, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, G. R. van der Werf, S. van Heuven, D. Vandemark, N. Viovy, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015
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Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. We describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on a range of data and models and their interpretation by a broad scientific community.
T. R. Anderson, W. C. Gentleman, and A. Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2231–2262, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2231-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2231-2015, 2015
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Ecosystem models provide a powerful tool for simulating ocean biology. Care must be exercised when selecting appropriate equations and parameter values to represent chosen marine ecosystems. Here, we present an efficient plankton model testbed, using simplified physics and coded in the freely available language R. Multiple runs can be undertaken for different ocean sites, permitting thorough evaluation of ecosystem model performance. The testbed also serves as an excellent resource for teaching.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, G. P. Peters, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, S. D. Jones, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, T. A. Boden, L. Bopp, Y. Bozec, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, F. Chevallier, C. E. Cosca, I. Harris, M. Hoppema, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, T. Johannessen, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, C. S. Landa, P. Landschützer, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, G. Marland, J. T. Mathis, N. Metzl, Y. Nojiri, A. Olsen, T. Ono, S. Peng, W. Peters, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. E. Salisbury, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, J. Segschneider, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, G. R. van der Werf, N. Viovy, Y.-P. Wang, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 47–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, 2015
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Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities (burning fossil fuels and cement production, deforestation and other land-use change) are set to rise again in 2014.
This study (updated yearly) makes an accurate assessment of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and their redistribution between the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in order to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change.
T. Osborne, J. Gornall, J. Hooker, K. Williams, A. Wiltshire, R. Betts, and T. Wheeler
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1139-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1139-2015, 2015
J. C. P. Hemmings, P. G. Challenor, and A. Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 697–731, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-697-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-697-2015, 2015
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Effective calibration of global models is inhibited by the computational demands of 3-D simulations. As a solution for the NEMO-MEDUSA model, we present an efficient emulator of surface chlorophyll as a function of MEDUSA’s biogeochemical parameters. The emulator comprises an array of site-based 1-D simulators and a quantification of uncertainty in their predictions. It is able to produce robust probabilistic estimates of 3-D model output rapidly for comparison with satellite chlorophyll.
R. A. Betts, N. Golding, P. Gonzalez, J. Gornall, R. Kahana, G. Kay, L. Mitchell, and A. Wiltshire
Biogeosciences, 12, 1317–1338, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1317-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1317-2015, 2015
L. Kwiatkowski, A. Yool, J. I. Allen, T. R. Anderson, R. Barciela, E. T. Buitenhuis, M. Butenschön, C. Enright, P. R. Halloran, C. Le Quéré, L. de Mora, M.-F. Racault, B. Sinha, I. J. Totterdell, and P. M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 11, 7291–7304, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7291-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7291-2014, 2014
B. A. Kelly-Gerreyn, A. P. Martin, B. J. Bett, T. R. Anderson, J. I. Kaariainen, C. E. Main, C. J. Marcinko, and A. Yool
Biogeosciences, 11, 6401–6416, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6401-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6401-2014, 2014
E. W. Blockley, M. J. Martin, A. J. McLaren, A. G. Ryan, J. Waters, D. J. Lea, I. Mirouze, K. A. Peterson, A. Sellar, and D. Storkey
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2613–2638, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2613-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2613-2014, 2014
C. Le Quéré, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, R. M. Andrew, T. A. Boden, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, R. A. Houghton, G. Marland, R. Moriarty, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, S. C. Doney, A. Harper, I. Harris, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, S. D. Jones, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, A. Körtzinger, C. Koven, N. Lefèvre, F. Maignan, A. Omar, T. Ono, G.-H. Park, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. Schwinger, J. Segschneider, B. D. Stocker, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, S. van Heuven, N. Viovy, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and S. Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 235–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, 2014
A. J. Wiltshire
The Cryosphere, 8, 941–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-941-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-941-2014, 2014
E. E. Popova, A. Yool, Y. Aksenov, A. C. Coward, and T. R. Anderson
Biogeosciences, 11, 293–308, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-293-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-293-2014, 2014
A. Yool, E. E. Popova, and T. R. Anderson
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1767–1811, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1767-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1767-2013, 2013
A. Yool, E. E. Popova, A. C. Coward, D. Bernie, and T. R. Anderson
Biogeosciences, 10, 5831–5854, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5831-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5831-2013, 2013
S. Henson, H. Cole, C. Beaulieu, and A. Yool
Biogeosciences, 10, 4357–4369, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4357-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4357-2013, 2013
S. Hagemann, C. Chen, D. B. Clark, S. Folwell, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Hanasaki, J. Heinke, F. Ludwig, F. Voss, and A. J. Wiltshire
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 129–144, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Aerosols | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Increased importance of aerosol–cloud interactions for surface PM2.5 pollution relative to aerosol–radiation interactions in China with the anthropogenic emission reductions
The role of temporal scales in extracting dominant meteorological drivers of major airborne pollutants
Biomass-burning smoke's properties and its interactions with marine stratocumulus clouds in WRF-CAM5 and southeastern Atlantic field campaigns
Air pollution trapping in the Dresden Basin from gray-zone scale urban modeling
The effect of atmospherically relevant aminium salts on water uptake
The impact of aerosols on stratiform clouds over southern West Africa: a large-eddy-simulation study
Numerical simulation and evaluation of global ultrafine particle concentrations at the Earth's surface
The underappreciated role of transboundary pollution in future air quality and health improvements in China
The export of African mineral dust across the Atlantic and its impact over the Amazon Basin
Assimilation of POLDER observations to estimate aerosol emissions
Effect of radiation interaction and aerosol processes on ventilation and aerosol concentrations in a real urban neighbourhood in Helsinki
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation modulates the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and fire weather in Australia
Assessing the Assimilation of Himawari-8 observations on Aerosol Forecasts and Radiative Effects During Pollution Transport from South Asia to the Tibetan Plateau
Identifying climate model structural inconsistencies allows for tight constraint of aerosol radiative forcing
Impacts of reducing scattering and absorbing aerosols on the temporal extent and intensity of South Asian summer monsoon and East Asian summer monsoon
Superimposed effects of typical local circulations driven by mountainous topography and aerosol–radiation interaction on heavy haze in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei central and southern plains in winter
Associations of interannual variation of Summer Tropospheric Ozone with Western Pacific Subtropical High in China from 1999 to 2017
Climate Intervention using marine cloud brightening (MCB) compared with stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) in the UKESM1 climate model
Multi-model ensemble projection of the global dust cycle by the end of 21st century using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 data
A thermodynamic framework for bulk–surface partitioning in finite-volume mixed organic–inorganic aerosol particles and cloud droplets
Change from aerosol-driven to cloud-feedback-driven trend in short-wave radiative flux over the North Atlantic
A new process-based and scale-aware desert dust emission scheme for global climate models – Part I: Description and evaluation against inverse modeling emissions
Opinion: The importance of historical and paleoclimate aerosol radiative effects
A new process-based and scale-aware desert dust emission scheme for global climate models – Part II: evaluation in the Community Earth System Model (CESM2)
Transported aerosols regulate the pre-monsoon rainfall over north-east India: a WRF-Chem modelling study
Collision-sticking rates of acid–base clusters in the gas phase determined from atomistic simulation and a novel analytical interacting hard-sphere model
Parameterization of size of organic and secondary inorganic aerosol for efficient representation of global aerosol optical properties
Analysis of atmospheric particle growth based on vapor concentrations measured at the high-altitude GAW station Chacaltaya in the Bolivian Andes
Aerosol-meteorology feedback diminishes the trans-boundary transport of black carbon into the Tibetan Plateau
Model-based insights into aerosol perturbation on pristine continental convective precipitation
The impact of using assimilated Aeolus wind data on regional WRF-Chem dust simulations
On the differences in the vertical distribution of modeled aerosol optical depth over the southeastern Atlantic
A global evaluation of daily to seasonal aerosol and water vapor relationships using a combination of AERONET and NAAPS reanalysis data
Impact of acidity and surface modulated acid dissociation on cloud response to organic aerosol
Local and remote climate impacts of future African aerosol emissions
The dependence of aerosols' global and local precipitation impacts on the emitting region
Assessing the climate and air quality effects of future aerosol mitigation in India using a global climate model combined with statistical downscaling
Aggravated air pollution and health burden due to traffic congestion in urban China
Late summer transition from a free-tropospheric to boundary layer source of Aitken mode aerosol in the high Arctic
Self-lofting of wildfire smoke in the troposphere and stratosphere: simulations and space lidar observations
Improving 3-day deterministic air pollution forecasts using machine learning algorithms
Role of K-feldspar and quartz in global ice nucleation by mineral dust in mixed-phase clouds
Projected increases in wildfires may challenge regulatory curtailment of PM2.5 over the eastern US by 2050
Meteorological export and deposition fluxes of black carbon on glaciers of the central Chilean Andes
Future changes in atmospheric rivers over East Asia under stratospheric aerosol intervention
Modeling the influence of chain length on secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation via multiphase reactions of alkanes
How aerosol size matters in aerosol optical depth (AOD) assimilation and the optimization using the Ångström exponent
Microphysical, macrophysical, and radiative responses of subtropical marine clouds to aerosol injections
Hemispheric-wide climate response to regional COVID-19-related aerosol emission reductions: the prominent role of atmospheric circulation adjustments
Impacts of an aerosol layer on a midlatitude continental system of cumulus clouds: how do these impacts depend on the vertical location of the aerosol layer?
Da Gao, Bin Zhao, Shuxiao Wang, Yuan Wang, Brian Gaudet, Yun Zhu, Xiaochun Wang, Jiewen Shen, Shengyue Li, Yicong He, Dejia Yin, and Zhaoxin Dong
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14359–14373, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14359-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14359-2023, 2023
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Surface PM2.5 concentrations can be enhanced by aerosol–radiation interactions (ARIs) and aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs). In this study, we found PM2.5 enhancement induced by ACIs shows a significantly smaller decrease ratio than that induced by ARIs in China with anthropogenic emission reduction from 2013 to 2021, making ACIs more important for enhancing PM2.5 concentrations. ACI-induced PM2.5 enhancement needs to be emphatically considered to meet the national PM2.5 air quality standard.
Miaoqing Xu, Jing Yang, Manchun Li, Xiao Chen, Qiancheng Lv, Qi Yao, Bingbo Gao, and Ziyue Chen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14065–14076, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14065-2023, 2023
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Although the temporal-scale effects on PM2.5–meteorology associations have been discussed, no quantitative evidence has proved this before. Based on rare 3 h meteorology data, we revealed that the dominant meteorological factor for PM2.5 concentrations across China extracted at the 3 h and 24 h scales presented large variations. This research suggests that data sources of different temporal scales should be comprehensively considered for better attribution and prevention of airborne pollution.
Calvin Howes, Pablo E. Saide, Hugh Coe, Amie Dobracki, Steffen Freitag, Jim M. Haywood, Steven G. Howell, Siddhant Gupta, Janek Uin, Mary Kacarab, Chongai Kuang, L. Ruby Leung, Athanasios Nenes, Greg M. McFarquhar, James Podolske, Jens Redemann, Arthur J. Sedlacek, Kenneth L. Thornhill, Jenny P. S. Wong, Robert Wood, Huihui Wu, Yang Zhang, Jianhao Zhang, and Paquita Zuidema
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13911–13940, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13911-2023, 2023
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To better understand smoke properties and its interactions with clouds, we compare the WRF-CAM5 model with observations from ORACLES, CLARIFY, and LASIC field campaigns in the southeastern Atlantic in August 2017. The model transports and mixes smoke well but does not fully capture some important processes. These include smoke chemical and physical aging over 4–12 days, smoke removal by rain, sulfate particle formation, aerosol activation into cloud droplets, and boundary layer turbulence.
Michael Weger and Bernd Heinold
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13769–13790, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13769-2023, 2023
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This study investigates the effects of complex terrain on air pollution trapping using a numerical model which simulates the dispersion of emissions under real meteorological conditions. The additionally simulated aerosol age allows us to distinguish areas that accumulate aerosol over time from areas that are more influenced by fresh emissions. The Dresden Basin, a widened section of the Elbe Valley in eastern Germany, is selected as the target area in a case study to demonstrate the concept.
Noora Hyttinen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13809–13817, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13809-2023, 2023
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Water activity in aerosol particles describes how particles respond to variations in relative humidity. Here, water activities were calculated for a set of 80 salts that may be present in aerosol particles using a state-of-the-art quantum-chemistry-based method. The effect of the dissociated salt on water activity varies with both the cation and anion. Most of the studied salts increase water uptake compared to pure water-soluble organic particles.
Lambert Delbeke, Chien Wang, Pierre Tulet, Cyrielle Denjean, Maurin Zouzoua, Nicolas Maury, and Adrien Deroubaix
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13329–13354, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13329-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13329-2023, 2023
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Low-level stratiform clouds (LLSCs) appear frequently over southern West Africa during the West African monsoon. Local and remote aerosol sources (biomass burning aerosols from central Africa) play a significant role in the LLSC life cycle. Based on measurements by the DACCIWA campaign, large-eddy simulation (LES) was conducted using different aerosol scenarios. The results show that both indirect and semi-direct effects can act individually or jointly to influence the life cycles of LLSCs.
Matthias Kohl, Jos Lelieveld, Sourangsu Chowdhury, Sebastian Ehrhart, Disha Sharma, Yafang Cheng, Sachchida Nand Tripathi, Mathew Sebastian, Govindan Pandithurai, Hongli Wang, and Andrea Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13191–13215, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13191-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13191-2023, 2023
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Knowledge on atmospheric ultrafine particles (UFPs) with a diameter smaller than 100 nm is crucial for public health and the hydrological cycle. We present a new global dataset of UFP concentrations at the Earth's surface derived with a comprehensive chemistry–climate model and evaluated with ground-based observations. The evaluation results are combined with high-resolution primary emissions to downscale UFP concentrations to an unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.1° × 0.1°.
Jun-Wei Xu, Jintai Lin, Dan Tong, and Lulu Chen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10075–10089, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10075-2023, 2023
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This study highlights the necessity of a low-carbon pathway in foreign countries for China to achieve air quality goals and to protect public health. We find that adopting the low-carbon instead of the fossil-fuel-intensive pathway in foreign countries would prevent 63 000–270 000 transboundary PM2.5-associated mortalities in China in 2060. Our study provides direct evidence of the necessity of inter-regional cooperation for air quality improvement.
Xurong Wang, Qiaoqiao Wang, Maria Prass, Christopher Pöhlker, Daniel Moran-Zuloaga, Paulo Artaxo, Jianwei Gu, Ning Yang, Xiajie Yang, Jiangchuan Tao, Juan Hong, Nan Ma, Yafang Cheng, Hang Su, and Meinrat O. Andreae
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9993–10014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9993-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9993-2023, 2023
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In this work, with an optimized particle mass size distribution, we captured observed aerosol optical depth (AOD) and coarse aerosol concentrations over source and/or receptor regions well, demonstrating good performance in simulating export of African dust toward the Amazon Basin. In addition to factors controlling the transatlantic transport of African dust, the study investigated the impact of African dust over the Amazon Basin, including the nutrient inputs associated with dust deposition.
Athanasios Tsikerdekis, Otto P. Hasekamp, Nick A. J. Schutgens, and Qirui Zhong
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9495–9524, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9495-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9495-2023, 2023
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Aerosols are tiny particles of different substances (species) that can be emitted into the atmosphere by natural processes or by anthropogenic activities. However, the actual aerosol emission amount per species is highly uncertain. Thus in this work we correct the aerosol emissions used to drive a global aerosol–climate model using satellite observations through a process called data assimilation. These more accurate aerosol emissions can lead to a more accurate weather and climate prediction.
Jani Strömberg, Xiaoyu Li, Mona Kurppa, Heino Kuuluvainen, Liisa Pirjola, and Leena Järvi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9347–9364, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9347-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9347-2023, 2023
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We conclude that with low wind speeds, solar radiation has a larger decreasing effect (53 %) on pollutant concentrations than aerosol processes (18 %). Additionally, our results showed that with solar radiation included, pollutant concentrations were closer to observations (−13 %) than with only aerosol processes (+98 %). This has implications when planning simulations under calm conditions such as in our case and when deciding whether or not simulations need to include these processes.
Guanyu Liu, Jing Li, and Tong Ying
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9217–9228, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9217-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9217-2023, 2023
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Fires in Australia are positively correlated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the correlation between ENSO and the Australian Fire Weather Index (FWI) increases from 0.17 to 0.70 when the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) shifts from a negative to positive phase. This is explained by the teleconnection effect through which the warmer AMO generates Rossby wave trains and results in high pressures and a weather condition conducive to wildfires.
Min Zhao, Tie Dai, Daisuke Goto, Hao Wang, and Guangyu Shi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1581, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1581, 2023
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During a springtime pollution input from South Asia to the Tibetan Plateau, we combined atmospheric chemistry modeling and data assimilation methods to assimilate and forecast aerosols from South Asia and the Tibetan Plateau. Assimilation of observations over a whole time window leads to a more reasonable distribution of daily variations in the aerosol forecast field. We also find that aerosol assimilation can improve the surface solar energy forecast in the Tibetan Plateau region.
Leighton A. Regayre, Lucia Deaconu, Daniel P. Grosvenor, David M. H. Sexton, Christopher Symonds, Tom Langton, Duncan Watson-Paris, Jane P. Mulcahy, Kirsty J. Pringle, Mark Richardson, Jill S. Johnson, John W. Rostron, Hamish Gordon, Grenville Lister, Philip Stier, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8749–8768, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8749-2023, 2023
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Aerosol forcing of Earth’s energy balance has persisted as a major cause of uncertainty in climate simulations over generations of climate model development. We show that structural deficiencies in a climate model are exposed by comprehensively exploring parametric uncertainty and that these deficiencies limit how much the model uncertainty can be reduced through observational constraint. This provides a future pathway towards building models with greater physical realism and lower uncertainty.
Chenwei Fang, Jim M. Haywood, Ju Liang, Ben T. Johnson, Ying Chen, and Bin Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8341–8368, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8341-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8341-2023, 2023
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The responses of Asian summer monsoon duration and intensity to air pollution mitigation are identified given the net-zero future. We show that reducing scattering aerosols makes the rainy season longer and stronger across South Asia and East Asia but that absorbing aerosol reduction has the opposite effect. Our results hint at distinct monsoon responses to emission controls that target different aerosols.
Yue Peng, Hong Wang, Xiaoye Zhang, Zhaodong Liu, Wenjie Zhang, Siting Li, Chen Han, and Huizheng Che
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8325–8339, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8325-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8325-2023, 2023
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This study demonstrates a strong link between local circulation, aerosol–radiation interaction (ARI), and haze pollution. Under the weak weather-scale systems, the typical local circulation driven by mountainous topography is the main cause of pollutant distribution in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, and the ARI mechanism amplifies this influence of local circulation on pollutants, making haze pollution aggravated by the superposition of both.
Xiaodong Zhang, Ruiyu Zhugu, Xiaohu Jian, Xinrui Liu, Kaijie Chen, Shu Tao, Junfeng Liu, Hong Gao, Tao Huang, and Jianmin Ma
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1373, 2023
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WRF-Chem modeling was conducted to assess the impacts of Western Pacific Subtropical High Pressure (WPSH) on interannual fluctuations of O3 pollution in China. We find that, while precursor emissions dominated long-term trend and magnitude of O3 from 1999 to 2017, WPSH determined interannual variation of summer O3. The response of O3 pollution to WPSH in major urban clusters depended on proximity of these urban areas to WPSH. The results could help long-term O3 pollution mitigation planning.
James Matthew Haywood, Andy Jones, Anthony Crawford Jones, and Philip J. Rasch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1611, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1611, 2023
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The difficulties in ameliorating global warming and the associated climate change via conventional mitigation are well documented, with all climate model scenarios exceeding 1.5 °C above the preindustrial level in the near-future. There is therefore a growing interest in ‘geoengineering’ to reflect a greater proportion of sunlight back to space and offset some of the global warming. We use a state-of-the-art Earth System model to investigate two of the most prominent geoengineering strategies.
Yuan Zhao, Xu Yue, Yang Cao, Jun Zhu, Chenguang Tian, Hao Zhou, Yuwen Chen, Yihan Hu, Weijie Fu, and Xu Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7823–7838, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7823-2023, 2023
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We project the future changes of dust emissions and loading using an ensemble of model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 under four scenarios. We find increased dust emissions and loading in North Africa, due to increased drought and strengthened surface wind, and decreased dust loading over Asia, following enhanced precipitation. Such a spatial pattern remains similar, though the regional intensity varies among different scenarios.
Ryan Schmedding and Andreas Zuend
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7741–7765, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7741-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7741-2023, 2023
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Aerosol particles below 100 nm in diameter have high surface-area-to-volume ratios. The enrichment of compounds in the surface of an aerosol particle may lead to depletion of that species in the interior bulk of the particle. We present a framework for modeling the equilibrium bulk–surface partitioning of mixed organic–inorganic particles, including cases of co-condensation of semivolatile organic compounds and species with extremely limited solubility in the bulk or surface of a particle.
Daniel P. Grosvenor and Kenneth S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6743–6773, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6743-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6743-2023, 2023
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We determine what causes long-term trends in short-wave (SW) radiative fluxes in two climate models. A positive trend occurs between 1850 and 1970 (increasing SW reflection) and a negative trend between 1970 and 2014; the pre-1970 positive trend is mainly driven by an increase in cloud droplet number concentrations due to increases in aerosol, and the 1970–2014 trend is driven by a decrease in cloud fraction, which we attribute to changes in clouds caused by greenhouse gas-induced warming.
Danny M. Leung, Jasper F. Kok, Longlei Li, Gregory S. Okin, Catherine Prigent, Martina Klose, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Laurent Menut, Natalie M. Mahowald, David M. Lawrence, and Marcelo Chamecki
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6487–6523, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6487-2023, 2023
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Desert dust modeling is important for understanding climate change, as dust regulates the atmosphere's greenhouse effect and radiation. This study formulates and proposes a more physical and realistic desert dust emission scheme for global and regional climate models. By considering more aeolian processes in our emission scheme, our simulations match better against dust observations than existing schemes. We believe this work is vital in improving dust representation in climate models.
Natalie Marie Mahowald, Longlei Li, Samuel Albani, Douglas Stephen Hamilton, and Jasper Kok
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1174, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1174, 2023
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Estimating the past aerosol radiative effects and their uncertainties is an important topic in climate science. Aerosol radiative effects propagate into large uncertainties in estimates of how present and future climate evolves with changing greenhouse gas emissions. A deeper understanding of how aerosols interacted with the atmospheric energy budget under past climates is hindered in part by a lack of relevant paleo observations and in part because less attention has been paid to the problem.
Danny M. Leung, Jasper F. Kok, Longlei Li, Natalie M. Mahowald, David M. Lawrence, Simone Tilmes, Erik Kluzek, Martina Klose, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-823, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-823, 2023
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This study uses a premier Earth system model to evaluate a new desert dust emission scheme proposed in our companion paper. We show that our scheme accounts for more dust emission physics, hence matching better against observations than other existing dust emission schemes do. Our scheme's dust emissions also couple tightly with meteorology, hence likely improving the modeled dust sensitivity to climate change. We believe this work is vital for improving dust representation in climate models.
Neeldip Barman and Sharad Gokhale
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6197–6215, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6197-2023, 2023
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The study shows that during the pre-monsoon season transported aerosols, especially from the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), have a greater impact with respect to air pollution, radiative forcing and rainfall over north-east (NE) India than emissions from within NE India itself. Hence, controlling emissions in the IGP will be significantly more fruitful in reducing pollution as well as climatic impacts over this region.
Huan Yang, Ivo Neefjes, Valtteri Tikkanen, Jakub Kubečka, Theo Kurtén, Hanna Vehkamäki, and Bernhard Reischl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5993–6009, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5993-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5993-2023, 2023
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We present a new analytical model for collision rates between molecules and clusters of arbitrary sizes, accounting for long-range interactions. The model is verified against atomistic simulations of typical acid–base clusters participating in atmospheric new particle formation (NPF). Compared to non-interacting models, accounting for long-range interactions leads to 2–3 times higher collision rates for small clusters, indicating the necessity of including such interactions in NPF modeling.
Haihui Zhu, Randall V. Martin, Betty Croft, Shixian Zhai, Chi Li, Liam Bindle, Jeffrey R. Pierce, Rachel Y.-W. Chang, Bruce E. Anderson, Luke D. Ziemba, Johnathan W. Hair, Richard A. Ferrare, Chris A. Hostetler, Inderjeet Singh, Deepangsu Chatterjee, Jose L. Jimenez, Pedro Campuzano-Jost, Benjamin A. Nault, Jack E. Dibb, Joshua S. Schwarz, and Andrew Weinheimer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5023–5042, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5023-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5023-2023, 2023
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Particle size of atmospheric aerosol is important for estimating its climate and health effects, but simulating atmospheric aerosol size is computationally demanding. This study derives a simple parameterization of the size of organic and secondary inorganic ambient aerosol that can be applied to atmospheric models. Applying this parameterization allows a better representation of the global spatial pattern of aerosol size, as verified by ground and airborne measurements.
Arto Heitto, Cheng Wu, Diego Aliaga, Luis Blacutt, Xuemeng Chen, Yvette Gramlich, Liine Heikkinen, Wei Huang, Radovan Krejci, Paolo Laj, Isabel Moreno, Karine Sellegri, Fernando Velarde, Kay Weinhold, Alfred Wiedensohler, Qiaozhi Zha, Federico Bianchi, Marcos Andrade, Kari E. J. Lehtinen, Claudia Mohr, and Taina Yli-Juuti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-526, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-526, 2023
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Particle growth at Chacaltaya station in Bolivia was simulated based on measured vapor concentrations and ambient conditions. Major contributors to the simulated growth were low volatile organic compounds (LVOC). Also sulfuric acid had major role when volcanic activity was occurring in the area. This study provides insight on nanoparticle growth at this high-altitude Southern Hemispheric site and hence contributes to building the knowledge on early growth of atmospheric particles.
Yuling Hu, Shichang Kang, Haipeng Yu, Junhua Yang, Mukesh Rai, Xiufeng Yin, Xintong Chen, and Pengfei Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-252, 2023
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The Tibetan Plateau (TP) saw the record-breaking aerosol pollution event from April 20 to May 10, 2016. We then studied the impact of aerosol-meteorology feedback on the transboundary transport flux of black carbon (BC) during this severe pollution event. It was found that the aerosol-meteorology feedback decreases the trans-boundary transport flux of BC from central and western Himalayas towards the TP. The study is of great significance to the ecological environment protection for the TP.
Mengjiao Jiang, Yaoting Li, Weiji Hu, Yinshan Yang, Guy Brasseur, and Xi Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4545–4557, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4545-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4545-2023, 2023
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Relatively clean background aerosol over the Tibetan Plateau makes the study of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions distinctive. A convection on 24 July 2014 in Naqu was selected using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model, including the Thompson aerosol-aware microphysical scheme. Our study uses a compromise approach to the limited observations. We show that the transformation of cloud water to graupel and the development of convective clouds are favored in a polluted situation.
Pantelis Kiriakidis, Antonis Gkikas, Georgios Papangelis, Theodoros Christoudias, Jonilda Kushta, Emmanouil Proestakis, Anna Kampouri, Eleni Marinou, Eleni Drakaki, Angela Benedetti, Michael Rennie, Christian Retscher, Anne Grete Straume, Alexandru Dandocsi, Jean Sciare, and Vasilis Amiridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4391–4417, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4391-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4391-2023, 2023
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With the launch of the Aeolus satellite, higher-accuracy wind products became available. This research was carried out to validate the assimilated wind products by testing their effect on the WRF-Chem model predictive ability of dust processes. This was carried out for the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region for two 2-month periods in autumn and spring 2020. The use of the assimilated products improved the dust forecasts of the autumn season (both quantitatively and qualitatively).
Ian Chang, Lan Gao, Connor J. Flynn, Yohei Shinozuka, Sarah J. Doherty, Michael S. Diamond, Karla M. Longo, Gonzalo A. Ferrada, Gregory R. Carmichael, Patricia Castellanos, Arlindo M. da Silva, Pablo E. Saide, Calvin Howes, Zhixin Xue, Marc Mallet, Ravi Govindaraju, Qiaoqiao Wang, Yafang Cheng, Yan Feng, Sharon P. Burton, Richard A. Ferrare, Samuel E. LeBlanc, Meloë S. Kacenelenbogen, Kristina Pistone, Michal Segal-Rozenhaimer, Kerry G. Meyer, Ju-Mee Ryoo, Leonhard Pfister, Adeyemi A. Adebiyi, Robert Wood, Paquita Zuidema, Sundar A. Christopher, and Jens Redemann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4283–4309, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4283-2023, 2023
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Abundant aerosols are present above low-level liquid clouds over the southeastern Atlantic during late austral spring. The model simulation differences in the proportion of aerosol residing in the planetary boundary layer and in the free troposphere can greatly affect the regional aerosol radiative effects. This study examines the aerosol loading and fractional aerosol loading in the free troposphere among various models and evaluates them against measurements from the NASA ORACLES campaign.
Juli I. Rubin, Jeffrey S. Reid, Peng Xian, Christopher M. Selman, and Thomas F. Eck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4059–4090, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4059-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4059-2023, 2023
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This work aims to quantify the covariability between aerosol optical depth/extinction with water vapor (PW) globally, using NASA AERONET observations and NAAPS model data. Findings are important for data assimilation and radiative transfer. The study shows statistically significant and positive AOD–PW relationships are found across the globe, varying in strength with location and season and tied to large-scale aerosol events. Hygroscopic growth was also found to be an important factor.
Gargi Sengupta, Minjie Zheng, and Nønne L. Prisle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-438, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-438, 2023
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The effect of organic acid aerosol on sulfur chemistry and cloud properties was investigated in an atmospheric model. Organic acid dissociation was considered using both bulk and surface related properties. We found that organic acid dissociation leads to increased hydrogen ion concentrations and sulfate aerosol mass in aqueous aerosols, increasing cloud formation. This could be important in large scale climate models as many organic aerosol components are both acidic and surface-active.
Christopher D. Wells, Matthew Kasoar, Nicolas Bellouin, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3575–3593, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3575-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3575-2023, 2023
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The climate is altered by greenhouse gases and air pollutant particles, and such emissions are likely to change drastically in the future over Africa. Air pollutants do not travel far, so their climate effect depends on where they are emitted. This study uses a climate model to find the climate impacts of future African pollutant emissions being either high or low. The particles absorb and scatter sunlight, causing the ground nearby to be cooler, but elsewhere the increased heat causes warming.
Geeta G. Persad
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3435–3452, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3435-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3435-2023, 2023
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Human-induced aerosol pollution has major impacts on both local and global precipitation. This study demonstrates using a global climate model that both the strength and localization of aerosols' precipitation impacts are highly dependent on which region the aerosols are emitted from. The findings highlight that the geographic distribution of human-induced aerosol emissions must be accounted for when quantifying their influence on global precipitation.
Tuuli Miinalainen, Harri Kokkola, Antti Lipponen, Antti-Pekka Hyvärinen, Vijay Kumar Soni, Kari E. J. Lehtinen, and Thomas Kühn
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3471–3491, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3471-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3471-2023, 2023
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We simulated the effects of aerosol emission mitigation on both global and regional radiative forcing and city-level air quality with a global-scale climate model. We used a machine learning downscaling approach to bias-correct the PM2.5 values obtained from the global model for the Indian megacity New Delhi. Our results indicate that aerosol mitigation could result in both improved air quality and less radiative heating for India.
Peng Wang, Ruhan Zhang, Shida Sun, Meng Gao, Bo Zheng, Dan Zhang, Yanli Zhang, Gregory R. Carmichael, and Hongliang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2983–2996, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2983-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2983-2023, 2023
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In China, the number of vehicles has jumped significantly in the last decade. This caused severe traffic congestion and aggravated air pollution. In this study, we developed a new temporal allocation approach to quantify the impacts of traffic congestion. We found that traffic congestion worsens air quality and the health burden across China, especially in the urban clusters. More effective and comprehensive vehicle emission control policies should be implemented to improve air quality in China.
Ruth Price, Andrea Baccarini, Julia Schmale, Paul Zieger, Ian M. Brooks, Paul Field, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2927–2961, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2927-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2927-2023, 2023
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Arctic clouds can control how much energy is absorbed by the surface or reflected back to space. Using a computer model of the atmosphere we investigated the formation of atmospheric particles that allow cloud droplets to form. We found that particles formed aloft are transported to the lowest part of the Arctic atmosphere and that this is a key source of particles. Our results have implications for the way Arctic clouds will behave in the future as climate change continues to impact the region.
Kevin Ohneiser, Albert Ansmann, Jonas Witthuhn, Hartwig Deneke, Alexandra Chudnovsky, Gregor Walter, and Fabian Senf
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2901–2925, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2901-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2901-2023, 2023
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This study shows that smoke layers can reach the tropopause via the self-lofting effect within 3–7 d in the absence of pyrocumulonimbus convection if the
aerosol optical thickness is larger than approximately 2 for a longer time period. When reaching the stratosphere, wildfire smoke can sensitively influence the stratospheric composition on a hemispheric scale and thus can affect the Earth’s climate and the ozone layer.
Christer Johansson, Zhiguo Zhang, Magnuz Engardt, Massimo Stafoggia, and Xiaoliang Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2023-38, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2023-38, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for ACP
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Up-to-date information on present and coming days’ air quality help people avoid exposure to high levels of air pollution. We apply different machine learning models to significantly improve traditional forecasts of PM10, NOx, and O3 in Stockholm, Sweden. It is shown that forecasts of all air pollutants are improved by through the input of lagged measurements and taking into account calendar information. The final modelled errors are substantially smaller than uncertainties in the measurements.
Marios Chatziparaschos, Nikos Daskalakis, Stelios Myriokefalitakis, Nikos Kalivitis, Athanasios Nenes, María Gonçalves Ageitos, Montserrat Costa-Surós, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Medea Zanoli, Mihalis Vrekoussis, and Maria Kanakidou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1785–1801, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1785-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1785-2023, 2023
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Ice formation is enabled by ice-nucleating particles (INP) at higher temperatures than homogeneous formation and can profoundly affect the properties of clouds. Our global model results show that K-feldspar is the most important contributor to INP concentrations globally, affecting mid-level mixed-phase clouds. However, quartz can significantly contribute and dominates the lowest and the highest altitudes of dust-derived INP, affecting mainly low-level and high-level mixed-phase clouds.
Chandan Sarangi, Yun Qian, L. Ruby Leung, Yang Zhang, Yufei Zou, and Yuhang Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1769–1783, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1769-2023, 2023
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We show that for air quality, the densely populated eastern US may see even larger impacts of wildfires due to long-distance smoke transport and associated positive climatic impacts, partially compensating the improvements from regulations on anthropogenic emissions. This study highlights the tension between natural and anthropogenic contributions and the non-local nature of air pollution that complicate regulatory strategies for improving future regional air quality for human health.
Rémy Lapere, Nicolás Huneeus, Sylvain Mailler, Laurent Menut, and Florian Couvidat
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1749–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1749-2023, 2023
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Glaciers in the Andes of central Chile are shrinking rapidly in response to global warming. This melting is accelerated by the deposition of opaque particles onto snow and ice. In this work, model simulations quantify typical deposition rates of soot on glaciers in summer and winter months and show that the contribution of emissions from Santiago is not as high as anticipated. Additionally, the combination of regional- and local-scale meteorology explains the seasonality in deposition.
Ju Liang and Jim Haywood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1687–1703, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1687-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1687-2023, 2023
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The recent record-breaking flood events in China during the summer of 2021 highlight the importance of mitigating the risks from future changes in high-impact weather systems under global warming. Based on a state-of-the-art Earth system model, we demonstrate a pilot study on the responses of atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation over East Asia to anthropogenically induced climate warming and an unconventional mitigation strategy – stratospheric aerosol injection.
Azad Madhu, Myoseon Jang, and David Deacon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1661–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1661-2023, 2023
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SOA formation is simulated using the UNIPAR model for series of linear alkanes. The inclusion of autoxidation reactions within the explicit gas mechanisms of C9–C12 was found to significantly improve predictions. Available product distributions were extrapolated with an incremental volatility coefficient (IVC) to predict SOA formation of alkanes without explicit mechanisms. These product distributions were used to simulate SOA formation from C13 and C15 and had good agreement with chamber data.
Jianbing Jin, Bas Henzing, and Arjo Segers
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1641–1660, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1641-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1641-2023, 2023
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Aerosol models and satellite retrieval algorithms rely on different aerosol size assumptions. In practice, differences between simulations and observations do not always reflect the difference in aerosol amount. To avoid inconsistencies, we designed a hybrid assimilation approach. Different from a standard aerosol optical depth (AOD) assimilation that directly assimilates AODs, the hybrid one estimates aerosol size parameters by assimilating Ängström observations before assimilating the AODs.
Je-Yun Chun, Robert Wood, Peter Blossey, and Sarah J. Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1345–1368, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1345-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1345-2023, 2023
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We investigate the impact of injected aerosol on subtropical low marine clouds under a variety of meteorological conditions using high-resolution model simulations. This study illustrates processes perturbed by aerosol injections and their impact on cloud properties (e.g., cloud number concentration, thickness, and cover). We show that those responses are highly sensitive to background meteorological conditions, such as precipitation, and background cloud properties.
Nora L. S. Fahrenbach and Massimo A. Bollasina
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 877–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-877-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-877-2023, 2023
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We studied the monthly-scale climate response to COVID-19 aerosol emission reductions during January–May 2020 using climate models. Our results show global temperature and rainfall anomalies driven by circulation changes. The climate patterns reverse polarity from JF to MAM due to a shift in the main SO2 reduction region from China to India. This real-life example of rapid climate adjustments to abrupt, regional aerosol emission reduction has large implications for future climate projections.
Seoung Soo Lee, Junshik Um, Won Jun Choi, Kyung-Ja Ha, Chang Hoon Jung, Jianping Guo, and Youtong Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 273–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-273-2023, 2023
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This paper elaborates on process-level mechanisms regarding how the interception of radiation by aerosols interacts with the surface heat fluxes and atmospheric instability in warm cumulus clouds. This paper elucidates how these mechanisms vary with the location or altitude of an aerosol layer. This elucidation indicates that the location of aerosol layers should be taken into account for parameterizations of aerosol–cloud interactions.
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Short summary
We describe the dust scheme in the UKESM1 Earth system model and show generally good agreement with observations. Comparing with the closely related HadGEM3-GC3.1 model, we show that dust differences are not only due to inter-model differences but also to the dust size distribution. Under climate change, HadGEM3-GC3.1 dust hardly changes, but UKESM1 dust decreases because that model includes the vegetation response which, in our models, has a bigger impact on dust than climate change itself.
We describe the dust scheme in the UKESM1 Earth system model and show generally good agreement...
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