Articles | Volume 16, issue 2
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 759–776, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-759-2016
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 759–776, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-759-2016
Research article
22 Jan 2016
Research article | 22 Jan 2016

The impact of shipping emissions on air pollution in the greater North Sea region – Part 2: Scenarios for 2030

V. Matthias et al.

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Cited articles

Aulinger, A., Matthias, V., Zeretzke, M., Bieser, J., Quante, M., and Backes, A.: The impact of shipping emissions on air pollution in the greater North Sea region – Part 1: Current emissions and concentrations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 739–758, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-739-2016, 2016.
Bieser, J., Aulinger, A., Matthias, V., Quante, M., and Builtjes, P.: SMOKE for Europe – adaptation, modification and evaluation of a comprehensive emission model for Europe, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 47–68, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-47-2011, 2011a.
Bieser, J., Aulinger, A., Matthias, V., Quante, M., and Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.: Vertical emission profiles for Europe based on plume rise calculations, Environ. Pollut., 159, 2935–2946, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2011.04.030, 2011b.
Byun, D. and Ching, J.: Science Algorithms of the EPA Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System, Epa/600/r-99/030, US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Washington DC, 1999.
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Short summary
Scenarios for future shipping emissions in the North Sea were developed. Compared to today, the contribution of shipping to the nitrogen dioxide and ozone concentrations will increase due to the expected enhanced traffic by more than 20 % and 5 %, respectively, by 2030 if no regulation for further emission reductions is implemented. PM2.5 will decrease slightly because the sulfur content in ship fuels will be reduced.
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