Articles | Volume 13, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5381-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5381-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
29 May 2013
Research article |
| 29 May 2013
Net radiative forcing and air quality responses to regional CO emission reductions
M. M. Fry
Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
M. D. Schwarzkopf
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Z. Adelman
Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
V. Naik
UCAR/NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
W. J. Collins
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
J. J. West
Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
Related authors
M. M. Fry, M. D. Schwarzkopf, Z. Adelman, and J. J. West
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 523–535, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-523-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-523-2014, 2014
W. J. Collins, M. M. Fry, H. Yu, J. S. Fuglestvedt, D. T. Shindell, and J. J. West
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2471–2485, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2471-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2471-2013, 2013
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Christophe Cassou, Mathias Hauser, Zeke Hausfather, June-Yi Lee, Matthew D. Palmer, Karina von Schuckmann, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Sophie Szopa, Blair Trewin, Jeongeun Yun, Nathan P. Gillett, Stuart Jenkins, H. Damon Matthews, Krishnan Raghavan, Aurélien Ribes, Joeri Rogelj, Debbie Rosen, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Lara Aleluia Reis, Robbie M. Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Jiddu A. Broersma, Samantha N. Burgess, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Catia M. Domingues, Marco Gambarini, Thomas Gasser, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Aurélien Liné, Didier P. Monselesan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Jan C. Minx, Matthew Rigby, Robert Rohde, Abhishek Savita, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Peter Thorne, Christopher Wells, Luke M. Western, Guido R. van der Werf, Susan E. Wijffels, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2641–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets to track real-world changes over time. To make our work relevant to policymakers, we follow methods from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Human activities are increasing the Earth's energy imbalance and driving faster sea-level rise compared to the IPCC assessment.
Ngoc Thi Nhu Do, Kengo Sudo, Akihiko Ito, Louisa K. Emmons, Vaishali Naik, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Gerd A. Folberth, and Douglas I. Kelley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2079–2109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding historical isoprene emission changes is important for predicting future climate, but trends and their controlling factors remain uncertain. This study shows that long-term isoprene trends vary among Earth system models mainly due to partially incorporating CO2 effects and land cover changes rather than to climate. Future models that refine these factors’ effects on isoprene emissions, along with long-term observations, are essential for better understanding plant–climate interactions.
Xavier Faïn, Sophie Szopa, Vaishali Naïk, Patricia Martinerie, David M. Etheridge, Rachael H. Rhodes, Cathy M. Trudinger, Vasilii V. Petrenko, Kévin Fourteau, and Philip Place
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1105–1119, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1105-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1105-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon monoxide (CO) plays a crucial role in the atmosphere's oxidizing capacity. In this study, we analyse how historical (1850–2014) [CO] outputs from state-of-the-art global chemistry–climate models over Greenland and Antarctica are able to capture both absolute values and trends recorded in multi-site ice archives. A disparity in [CO] growth rates emerges in the Northern Hemisphere between models and observations from 1920–1975 CE, possibly linked to uncertainties in CO emission factors.
Sebastian H. M. Hickman, Makoto Kelp, Paul T. Griffiths, Kelsey Doerksen, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Elyse A. Pennington, Gerbrand Koren, Fernando Iglesias-Suarez, Martin G. Schultz, Kai-Lan Chang, Owen R. Cooper, Alexander T. Archibald, Roberto Sommariva, David Carlson, Hantao Wang, J. Jason West, and Zhenze Liu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3739, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3739, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning is being more widely used across environmental and climate science. This work reviews the use of machine learning in tropospheric ozone research, focusing on three main application areas in which significant progress has been made. Common challenges in using machine learning across the three areas are highlighted, and future directions for the field are indicated.
Hantao Wang, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Haitong Zhe Sun, Zhen Qu, Xiang Liu, Antje Inness, Martin Schultz, Sabine Schröder, Marc Serre, and J. Jason West
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3723, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3723, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We compare six datasets of global ground-level ozone, developed using geostatistical, machine learning, or reanalysis methods. The datasets show important differences from one another in ozone magnitude, greater than 5 ppb, and trends, globally and regionally. Compared with measurements, performance varies among datasets, and most overestimate ozone, particularly at lower concentrations. These differences among datasets highlight uncertainties for applications to health and other impacts.
John Patrick Dunne, Helene T. Hewitt, Julie Arblaster, Frédéric Bonou, Olivier Boucher, Tereza Cavazos, Paul J. Durack, Birgit Hassler, Martin Juckes, Tomoki Miyakawa, Matthew Mizielinski, Vaishali Naik, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O’Rourke, Robert Pincus, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Isla R. Simpson, and Karl E. Taylor
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3874, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3874, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This manuscript provides the motivation and experimental design for the seventh phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7) to coordinate community based efforts to answer key and timely climate science questions and facilitate delivery of relevant multi-model simulations for: prediction and projection, characterization, attribution and process understanding; vulnerability, impacts and adaptations analysis; national and international climate assessments; and society at large.
William J. Collins, Fiona M. O'Connor, Connor R. Barker, Rachael E. Byrom, Sebastian D. Eastham, Øivind Hodnebrog, Patrick Jöckel, Eloise A. Marais, Mariano Mertens, Gunnar Myhre, Matthias Nützel, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Laura Stecher, Larry W. Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Gregory Faluvegi, Ulas Im, Lee T. Murray, Drew Shindell, Kostas Tsigaridis, Nathan Luke Abraham, and James Keeble
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3698, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
If reductions aren’t implemented to limit emissions of pollutants that produce ozone then we calculate that this will cause a warming of climate. We assess how the future warming from ozone is affected by changing meteorological variables such as clouds and atmospheric temperatures. We find that reductions in high cloud cover tend to slightly reduce the warming from ozone.
Paul T. Griffiths, Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Michael J. Prather, Alexander T. Archibald, Florence Brown, Makoto Deushi, William Collins, Stephanie Fiedler, Naga Oshima, Lee T. Murray, Christopher J. Smith, Steven T. Turnock, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Paul J. Young
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2528, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2528, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) aimed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. In this paper, we review its contribution to AR6, and the wider understanding of the role of these species in climate and climate change. We identify remaining challenges concluding with recommendations aimed to improve the utility and uptake of climate model data to address the role of short-lived climate forcers in the Earth system.
Alkiviadis Kalisoras, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Dimitris Akritidis, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Chaincy Kuo, Sophie Szopa, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, David Neubauer, Naga Oshima, Jane Mulcahy, Larry W. Horowitz, and Prodromos Zanis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7837–7872, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a metric for estimating how human activities and natural agents change the energy flow into and out of the Earth’s climate system. We investigate the anthropogenic aerosol ERF, and we estimate the contribution of individual processes to the total ERF using simulations from Earth system models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our findings highlight that aerosol–cloud interactions drive ERF variability during the last 150 years.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Bradley Hall, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan P. Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Blair Trewin, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Carlo Buontempo, Samantha Burgess, Chiara Cagnazzo, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andrew Gettelman, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Jan C. Minx, Gunnar Myhre, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Elisa Majamäki, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Margreet van Marle, Rachel M. Hoesly, Robert Rohde, Dominik Schumacher, Guido van der Werf, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Xuebin Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper tracks some key indicators of global warming through time, from 1850 through to the end of 2023. It is designed to give an authoritative estimate of global warming to date and its causes. We find that in 2023, global warming reached 1.3 °C and is increasing at over 0.2 °C per decade. This is caused by all-time-high greenhouse gas emissions.
Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2387–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate scientists want to better understand modern climate change. Thus, climate model experiments are performed and compared. The results of climate model experiments differ, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. This article gives insights into the challenges and outlines opportunities for further improving the understanding of climate change. It is based on views of a group of experts in atmospheric composition–climate interactions.
Hamza Ahsan, Hailong Wang, Jingbo Wu, Mingxuan Wu, Steven J. Smith, Susanne Bauer, Harrison Suchyta, Dirk Olivié, Gunnar Myhre, Hitoshi Matsui, Huisheng Bian, Jean-François Lamarque, Ken Carslaw, Larry Horowitz, Leighton Regayre, Mian Chin, Michael Schulz, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Vaishali Naik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14779–14799, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14779-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the impact of the assumed effective height of SO2 injection, SO2 and BC emission seasonality, and the assumed fraction of SO2 emissions injected as SO4 on climate and chemistry model results. We find that the SO2 injection height has a large impact on surface SO2 concentrations and, in some models, radiative flux. These assumptions are a
hiddensource of inter-model variability and may be leading to bias in some climate model results.
Yiqi Zheng, Larry W. Horowitz, Raymond Menzel, David J. Paynter, Vaishali Naik, Jingyi Li, and Jingqiu Mao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8993–9007, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8993-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8993-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Biogenic secondary organic aerosols (SOAs) account for a large fraction of fine aerosol at the global scale. Using long-term measurements and a climate model, we investigate anthropogenic impacts on biogenic SOA at both decadal and centennial timescales. Results show that despite reductions in biogenic precursor emissions, SOA has been strongly amplified by anthropogenic emissions since the preindustrial era and exerts a cooling radiative forcing.
Piers M. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, José M. Gutiérrez, Johannes Gütschow, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2295–2327, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This is a critical decade for climate action, but there is no annual tracking of the level of human-induced warming. We build on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports that are authoritative but published infrequently to create a set of key global climate indicators that can be tracked through time. Our hope is that this becomes an important annual publication that policymakers, media, scientists and the public can refer to.
Glen Chua, Vaishali Naik, and Larry Wayne Horowitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4955–4975, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4955-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4955-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The hydroxyl radical (OH) is an atmospheric
detergent, removing air pollutants and greenhouse gases like methane from the atmosphere. Thus, understanding how it is changing and responding to its various drivers is important for air quality and climate. We found that OH has increased by about 5 % globally from 1980 to 2014 in our model, mostly driven by increasing nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions. This suggests potential climate tradeoffs from air quality policies solely targeting NOx emissions.
David S. Stevenson, Richard G. Derwent, Oliver Wild, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14243–14252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14243-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14243-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric methane’s growth rate rose by 50 % in 2020 relative to 2019. Lower nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions tend to increase methane’s atmospheric residence time; lower carbon monoxide (CO) and non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) emissions decrease its lifetime. Combining model sensitivities with emission changes, we find that COVID-19 lockdown emission reductions can explain over half the observed increases in methane in 2020.
Johannes Quaas, Hailing Jia, Chris Smith, Anna Lea Albright, Wenche Aas, Nicolas Bellouin, Olivier Boucher, Marie Doutriaux-Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Daniel Grosvenor, Stuart Jenkins, Zbigniew Klimont, Norman G. Loeb, Xiaoyan Ma, Vaishali Naik, Fabien Paulot, Philip Stier, Martin Wild, Gunnar Myhre, and Michael Schulz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12221–12239, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Pollution particles cool climate and offset part of the global warming. However, they are washed out by rain and thus their effect responds quickly to changes in emissions. We show multiple datasets to demonstrate that aerosol emissions and their concentrations declined in many regions influenced by human emissions, as did the effects on clouds. Consequently, the cooling impact on the Earth energy budget became smaller. This change in trend implies a relative warming.
Timothy Glotfelty, Diana Ramírez-Mejía, Jared Bowden, Adrian Ghilardi, and J. Jason West
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3215–3249, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3215-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3215-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Land use and land cover change is a major contributor to climate change in Africa. Here we document deficiencies in how a weather model represents the land surface of Africa and how we modify a common land surface model to overcome these deficiencies. Our tests reveal that the default weather model does not accurately predict and transition the properties of different African biomes and growing cycles. This paper demonstrates that our modified model addresses these limitations.
Garry D. Hayman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Chris Huntingford, Anna B. Harper, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, William Collins, Christopher Webber, Jason Lowe, Stephen Sitch, Joanna I. House, Jonathan C. Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, and Nicola Gedney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 513–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We model greenhouse gas emission scenarios consistent with limiting global warming to either 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify the effectiveness of methane emission control and land-based mitigation options regionally. Our results highlight the importance of reducing methane emissions for realistic emission pathways that meet the global warming targets. For land-based mitigation, growing bioenergy crops on existing agricultural land is preferable to replacing forests.
Paul T. Griffiths, Lee T. Murray, Guang Zeng, Youngsub Matthew Shin, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Ian E. Galbally, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, James Keeble, Jane Liu, Omid Moeini, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Naga Oshima, David Tarasick, Simone Tilmes, Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, Paul J. Young, and Prodromos Zanis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4187–4218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the CMIP6 Historical and future simulations for tropospheric ozone, a species which is important for many aspects of atmospheric chemistry. We show that the current generation of models agrees well with observations, being particularly successful in capturing trends in surface ozone and its vertical distribution in the troposphere. We analyse the factors that control ozone and show that they evolve over the period of the CMIP6 experiments.
Gillian Thornhill, William Collins, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Alex Archibald, Susanne Bauer, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Stephanie Fiedler, Gerd Folberth, Ada Gjermundsen, Larry Horowitz, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Fabien Paulot, Michael Schulz, Catherine E. Scott, Roland Séférian, Chris Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and James Weber
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1105–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We find that increased temperatures affect aerosols and reactive gases by changing natural emissions and their rates of removal from the atmosphere. Changing the composition of these species in the atmosphere affects the radiative budget of the climate system and therefore amplifies or dampens the climate response of climate models of the Earth system. This study found that the largest effect is a dampening of climate change as warmer temperatures increase the emissions of cooling aerosols.
Gillian D. Thornhill, William J. Collins, Ryan J. Kramer, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Piers M. Forster, Larry W. Horowitz, Ben Johnson, James Keeble, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Jane P. Mulcahy, Gunnar Myhre, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Christopher J. Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Tongwen Wu, Guang Zeng, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 853–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is a study of how different constituents in the atmosphere, such as aerosols and gases like methane and ozone, affect the energy balance in the atmosphere. Different climate models were run using the same inputs to allow an easy comparison of the results and to understand where the models differ. We found the effect of aerosols is to reduce warming in the atmosphere, but this effect varies between models. Reactions between gases are also important in affecting climate.
Steven T. Turnock, Robert J. Allen, Martin Andrews, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa Emmons, Peter Good, Larry Horowitz, Jasmin G. John, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, David Neubauer, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Alistair Sellar, Sungbo Shim, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14547–14579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A first assessment is made of the historical and future changes in air pollutants from models participating in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Substantial benefits to future air quality can be achieved in future scenarios that implement measures to mitigate climate and involve reductions in air pollutant emissions, particularly methane. However, important differences are shown between models in the future regional projection of air pollutants under the same scenario.
David S. Stevenson, Alcide Zhao, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Simone Tilmes, Guang Zeng, Lee T. Murray, William J. Collins, Paul T. Griffiths, Sungbo Shim, Larry W. Horowitz, Lori T. Sentman, and Louisa Emmons
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12905–12920, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12905-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12905-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present historical trends in atmospheric oxidizing capacity (OC) since 1850 from the latest generation of global climate models and compare these with estimates from measurements. OC controls levels of many key reactive gases, including methane (CH4). We find small model trends up to 1980, then increases of about 9 % up to 2014, disagreeing with (uncertain) measurement-based trends. Major drivers of OC trends are emissions of CH4, NOx, and CO; these will be important for future CH4 trends.
Robert J. Allen, Steven Turnock, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Ulrike Lohmann, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Martine Michou, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Toshihiko Takemura, Michael Schulz, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Louisa Emmons, Larry Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Twan van Noije, Tommi Bergman, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Prodromos Zanis, Ina Tegen, Daniel M. Westervelt, Philippe Le Sager, Peter Good, Sungbo Shim, Fiona O'Connor, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Makoto Deushi, Lori T. Sentman, Jasmin G. John, Shinichiro Fujimori, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9641–9663, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, 2020
Christopher J. Smith, Ryan J. Kramer, Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, William Collins, Adriana Sima, Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Seiji Yukimoto, Jason Cole, David Paynter, Hideo Shiogama, Fiona M. O'Connor, Eddy Robertson, Andy Wiltshire, Timothy Andrews, Cécile Hannay, Ron Miller, Larissa Nazarenko, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Stephanie Fiedler, Anna Lewinschal, Chloe Mackallah, Martin Dix, Robert Pincus, and Piers M. Forster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9591–9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The spread in effective radiative forcing for both CO2 and aerosols is narrower in the latest CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) generation than in CMIP5. For the case of CO2 it is likely that model radiation parameterisations have improved. Tropospheric and stratospheric radiative adjustments to the forcing behave differently for different forcing agents, and there is still significant diversity in how clouds respond to forcings, particularly for total anthropogenic forcing.
Marielle Saunois, Ann R. Stavert, Ben Poulter, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Peter A. Raymond, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Sander Houweling, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Ciais, Vivek K. Arora, David Bastviken, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Kimberly M. Carlson, Mark Carrol, Simona Castaldi, Naveen Chandra, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick M. Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles L. Curry, Giuseppe Etiope, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Michaela I. Hegglin, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Gustaf Hugelius, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Katherine M. Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Paul B. Krummel, Ray L. Langenfelds, Goulven G. Laruelle, Licheng Liu, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe McNorton, Paul A. Miller, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Vaishali Naik, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Simon O'Doherty, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, Pierre Regnier, William J. Riley, Judith A. Rosentreter, Arjo Segers, Isobel J. Simpson, Hao Shi, Steven J. Smith, L. Paul Steele, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Francesco N. Tubiello, Aki Tsuruta, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Thomas S. Weber, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray F. Weiss, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Yi Yin, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Zhen Zhang, Yuanhong Zhao, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1561–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. We have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. This is the second version of the review dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down and bottom-up estimates.
Jian He, Vaishali Naik, Larry W. Horowitz, Ed Dlugokencky, and Kirk Thoning
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 805–827, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-805-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-805-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, methane representation in AM4.1 is improved by optimizing CH4 emissions to match surface observations. We find increases in CH4 sources balanced by increases in sinks lead to CH4 stabilization during 1999–2006, and anthropogenic sources (e.g., agriculture, energy, and waste) are more likely major contributors to the renewed growth after 2006. Increases in CH4 emissions and decreases in OH levels during 2008–2015 prolong CH4 lifetime and amplify methane response to emission changes.
Bing Pu, Paul Ginoux, Huan Guo, N. Christina Hsu, John Kimball, Beatrice Marticorena, Sergey Malyshev, Vaishali Naik, Norman T. O'Neill, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Juliette Paireau, Joseph M. Prospero, Elena Shevliakova, and Ming Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 55–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-55-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-55-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Dust emission initiates when surface wind velocities exceed a threshold depending on soil and surface characteristics and varying spatially and temporally. Climate models widely use wind erosion thresholds. The climatological monthly global distribution of the wind erosion threshold, Vthreshold, is retrieved using satellite and reanalysis products and improves the simulation of dust frequency, magnitude, and the seasonal cycle in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory land–atmosphere model.
Christoph Heinze, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Colin Jones, Yves Balkanski, William Collins, Thierry Fichefet, Shuang Gao, Alex Hall, Detelina Ivanova, Wolfgang Knorr, Reto Knutti, Alexander Löw, Michael Ponater, Martin G. Schultz, Michael Schulz, Pier Siebesma, Joao Teixeira, George Tselioudis, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 379–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models for producing climate projections under given forcings include additional processes and feedbacks that traditional physical climate models do not consider. We present an overview of climate feedbacks for key Earth system components and discuss the evaluation of these feedbacks. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research.
Kai-Lan Chang, Owen R. Cooper, J. Jason West, Marc L. Serre, Martin G. Schultz, Meiyun Lin, Virginie Marécal, Béatrice Josse, Makoto Deushi, Kengo Sudo, Junhua Liu, and Christoph A. Keller
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 955–978, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-955-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-955-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new method for combining surface ozone observations from thousands of monitoring sites worldwide with the output from multiple atmospheric chemistry models. The result is a global surface ozone distribution with greater accuracy than any single model can achieve. We focused on an ozone metric relevant to human mortality caused by long-term ozone exposure. Our method can be applied to studies that quantify the impacts of ozone on human health and mortality.
Ilissa B. Ocko, Vaishali Naik, and David Paynter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15555–15568, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15555-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15555-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
As communities worldwide analyse options to reduce methane emissions from energy use, agriculture, and waste management, there is an immediate need to build confidence in rapid assessment tools other than standard climate metrics – which misrepresent impacts over all timescales. In this paper, we show that a simplified climate model can easily and rapidly provide scientifically robust climate responses to changes in methane emissions, thereby improving mitigation analysis and decision-making.
Arlene M. Fiore, Emily V. Fischer, George P. Milly, Shubha Pandey Deolal, Oliver Wild, Daniel A. Jaffe, Johannes Staehelin, Olivia E. Clifton, Dan Bergmann, William Collins, Frank Dentener, Ruth M. Doherty, Bryan N. Duncan, Bernd Fischer, Stefan Gilge, Peter G. Hess, Larry W. Horowitz, Alexandru Lupu, Ian A. MacKenzie, Rokjin Park, Ludwig Ries, Michael G. Sanderson, Martin G. Schultz, Drew T. Shindell, Martin Steinbacher, David S. Stevenson, Sophie Szopa, Christoph Zellweger, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15345–15361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15345-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15345-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate a proof-of-concept approach for applying northern midlatitude mountaintop peroxy acetyl nitrate (PAN) measurements and a multi-model ensemble during April to constrain the influence of continental-scale anthropogenic precursor emissions on PAN. Our findings imply a role for carefully coordinated multi-model ensembles in helping identify observations for discriminating among widely varying (and poorly constrained) model responses of atmospheric constituents to changes in emissions.
Yuqiang Zhang, J. Jason West, Rohit Mathur, Jia Xing, Christian Hogrefe, Shawn J. Roselle, Jesse O. Bash, Jonathan E. Pleim, Chuen-Meei Gan, and David C. Wong
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15003–15016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15003-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15003-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Here we use a fine-resolution (36 km) self-consistent 21-year air quality simulation from 1990 to 2010, a health impact function, and annual county-level population and baseline mortality rate estimates to estimate annual mortality burdens from PM2.5 and O3 in the US, and also the contributions to the trends. We found that the PM2.5-related mortality burden has steadily decreased by 53 %, while the O3-related mortality burden has increased by 13 %, with larger inter-annual variabilities.
Fabien Paulot, David Paynter, Paul Ginoux, Vaishali Naik, and Larry W. Horowitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13265–13281, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13265-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13265-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Observations show that the sunlight reflected to space by particles has decreased over the US and Europe, increased over India, and not changed over China from 2001 to 2015. These changes are attributed to different types of particles, namely sulfate over the US and Europe, and black carbon, sulfate, and nitrate over China and India. Our results suggest that the recent shift in human emissions from the US and Europe to Asia has altered their impact on the Earth's outgoing energy.
Ciao-Kai Liang, J. Jason West, Raquel A. Silva, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Yanko Davila, Frank J. Dentener, Louisa Emmons, Johannes Flemming, Gerd Folberth, Daven Henze, Ulas Im, Jan Eiof Jonson, Terry J. Keating, Tom Kucsera, Allen Lenzen, Meiyun Lin, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Xiaohua Pan, Rokjin J. Park, R. Bradley Pierce, Takashi Sekiya, Kengo Sudo, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10497–10520, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10497-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10497-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Emissions from one continent affect air quality and health elsewhere. Here we quantify the effects of intercontinental PM2.5 and ozone transport on human health using a new multi-model ensemble, evaluating the health effects of emissions from six world regions and three emission source sectors. Emissions from one region have significant health impacts outside of that source region; similarly, foreign emissions contribute significantly to air-pollution-related deaths in several world regions.
Jordan L. Schnell, Vaishali Naik, Larry W. Horowitz, Fabien Paulot, Jingqiu Mao, Paul Ginoux, Ming Zhao, and Kirpa Ram
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10157–10175, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10157-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10157-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the ability of a developmental version of the NOAA GFDL Atmospheric Model, version 4 to simulate observed wintertime pollution and its relationship to weather over Northern India, one of the most densely populated and polluted regions in world. We also compare two emission inventories and find that the newest version dramatically improves our simulation. Observed and modeled pollution is the highest within the Indo-Gangetic Plain, where it is closely related to near-surface weather.
Ulas Im, Jørgen Brandt, Camilla Geels, Kaj Mantzius Hansen, Jesper Heile Christensen, Mikael Skou Andersen, Efisio Solazzo, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocio Baro, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Augustin Colette, Gabriele Curci, Aidan Farrow, Johannes Flemming, Andrea Fraser, Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Ciao-Kai Liang, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Guido Pirovano, Luca Pozzoli, Marje Prank, Rebecca Rose, Ranjeet Sokhi, Paolo Tuccella, Alper Unal, Marta Garcia Vivanco, Jason West, Greg Yarwood, Christian Hogrefe, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5967–5989, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5967-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5967-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of air pollution on human health and their costs in Europe and the United States for the year 2010 ared modeled by a multi-model ensemble. In Europe, the number of premature deaths is calculated to be 414 000, while in the US it is estimated to be 160 000. Health impacts estimated by individual models can vary up to a factor of 3. Results show that the domestic emissions have the largest impact on premature deaths, compared to foreign sources.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Ray Weiss, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
Borgar Aamaas, Terje K. Berntsen, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Keith P. Shine, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10795–10809, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10795-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10795-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The climate impacts for emissions of different pollutants can be made comparable with weighting factors. This article estimates these weights based on temperature change for short-lived pollutants, such as methane and black carbon. Emissions from different seasons and regions are compared, for instance Europe and East Asia. The responses are calculated for four regions, where we see that the responses can be much higher in the Arctic than globally in some cases.
Chris Huntingford, Hui Yang, Anna Harper, Peter M. Cox, Nicola Gedney, Eleanor J. Burke, Jason A. Lowe, Garry Hayman, William J. Collins, Stephen M. Smith, and Edward Comyn-Platt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 617–626, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Recent UNFCCC climate meetings have placed much emphasis on constraining global warming to remain below 2 °C. The 2015 Paris meeting went further and gave an aspiration to fulfil a 1.5 °C threshold. We provide a flexible set of algebraic global temperature profiles that stabilise to either target. This will potentially allow the climate research community to estimate local climatic implications for these temperature profiles, along with emissions trajectories to fulfil them.
Eri Saikawa, Hankyul Kim, Min Zhong, Alexander Avramov, Yu Zhao, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Jun-ichi Kurokawa, Zbigniew Klimont, Fabian Wagner, Vaishali Naik, Larry W. Horowitz, and Qiang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6393–6421, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6393-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6393-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze differences in existing air pollutant emission estimates to better understand the magnitude of emissions as well as the source regions and sectors of air pollution in China. We find large disagreements among the inventories, and we show that these differences have a significant impact on regional air quality simulations. Better understanding of air pollutant emissions at more disaggregated levels is essential for air pollution mitigation in China.
Thomas Gasser, Glen P. Peters, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, William J. Collins, Drew T. Shindell, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 235–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-235-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-235-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Emission metrics such as GWP or GTP are used to put non-CO2 species on a
CO2-equivalentscale. In the fifth IPCC report the metrics are inconsistent, as the climate–carbon feedback is included only for CO2 but not for non-CO2 species. Here, we simulate a new impulse response function for the feedback, and we use it to correct the metrics. For instance, 1 g of CH4 is equivalent to 31 g of CO2 (instead of 28 g) following the corrected GWP100 metric. It is 34 g if other factors are also updated.
Gunnar Myhre, Wenche Aas, Ribu Cherian, William Collins, Greg Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Piers Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Zbigniew Klimont, Marianne T. Lund, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Dirk Olivié, Michael Prather, Johannes Quaas, Bjørn H. Samset, Jordan L. Schnell, Michael Schulz, Drew Shindell, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Svetlana Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2709–2720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Over the past decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990–2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The global mean radiative forcing is more strongly positive than reported in IPCC AR5.
William J. Collins, Jean-François Lamarque, Michael Schulz, Olivier Boucher, Veronika Eyring, Michaela I. Hegglin, Amanda Maycock, Gunnar Myhre, Michael Prather, Drew Shindell, and Steven J. Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 585–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We have designed a set of climate model experiments called the Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). These are designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases in the climate models that are used to simulate past and future climate. We hope that many climate modelling centres will choose to run these experiments to help understand the contribution of aerosols and chemistry to climate change.
Christopher P. Webber, Helen F. Dacre, William J. Collins, and Giacomo Masato
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 867–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-867-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-867-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of synoptic meteorology on UK PM10 concentration ([PM110]) is analysed. ERA-Interim reanalysis data are used to detect upper-tropospheric wave breaking that explains much of the UK winter synoptic meteorological variability. Wave breaking is shown to positively impact UK [PM10], with a persistent Ω block feature resulting in the greatest probability of exceeding a hazardous UK [PM10]. The meteorological dynamics of UK PM10 exceedances are better understood following this study.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Raquel A. Silva, J. Jason West, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell, William J. Collins, Stig Dalsoren, Greg Faluvegi, Gerd Folberth, Larry W. Horowitz, Tatsuya Nagashima, Vaishali Naik, Steven T. Rumbold, Kengo Sudo, Toshihiko Takemura, Daniel Bergmann, Philip Cameron-Smith, Irene Cionni, Ruth M. Doherty, Veronika Eyring, Beatrice Josse, Ian A. MacKenzie, David Plummer, Mattia Righi, David S. Stevenson, Sarah Strode, Sophie Szopa, and Guang Zengast
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9847–9862, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Using ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models for the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, we quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution in 2030, 2050 and 2100, relative to 2000 concentrations. We also estimate the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period.
Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell, Nicolas Bellouin, William J. Collins, Greg Faluvegi, and Kostas Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9785–9804, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9785-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9785-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Computer models are our primary tool to investigate how fossil-fuel emissions are affecting the climate. Here, we used three different climate models to see how they simulate the response to removing sulfur dioxide emissions from China. We found that the models disagreed substantially on how large the climate effect is from the emissions in this region. This range of outcomes is concerning if scientists or policy makers have to rely on any one model when performing their own studies.
Yuqiang Zhang, Jared H. Bowden, Zachariah Adelman, Vaishali Naik, Larry W. Horowitz, Steven J. Smith, and J. Jason West
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9533–9548, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9533-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9533-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can also improve air quality. We estimate the co-benefits of global GHG mitigation for US air quality in 2050 at fine resolution by downscaling from a previous global study. Foreign GHG mitigation under RCP4.5 contributes more to the US O3 reduction (76 % of the total) than domestic mitigation and contributes 26 % of the PM2.5 reduction. Therefore, the US gains significantly greater air quality co-benefits by coordinating GHG controls internationally.
Min Zhong, Eri Saikawa, Yang Liu, Vaishali Naik, Larry W. Horowitz, Masayuki Takigawa, Yu Zhao, Neng-Huei Lin, and Elizabeth A. Stone
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1201–1218, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1201-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1201-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Large discrepancies exist among emission inventories (e.g., REAS and EDGAR) at the provincial level in China. We use WRF-Chem to evaluate the impact of the difference in existing emission inventories and find that emissions inputs significantly affect our air pollutant simulation results. Our study highlights the importance of constraining emissions at the provincial level for regional air quality modeling over East Asia.
F. Paulot, P. Ginoux, W. F. Cooke, L. J. Donner, S. Fan, M.-Y. Lin, J. Mao, V. Naik, and L. W. Horowitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 1459–1477, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1459-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1459-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We characterize the sensitivity of NO3 optical depth (OD) to both the sources of its precursors (NH3 and HNO3) and to its surface sinks. Uncertainties in the heterogeneous chemistry of HNO3 and the near-surface volatilization of NH4NO3 can cause up to 25 % difference in the global NO3 OD. Simulated NO3 OD increases little (< 30 %) in response to changes in emissions (2010 to 2050). Better constraints on the tropical flux of NH3 into the free troposphere are needed to improve estimates of NO3 OD.
D. M. Westervelt, L. W. Horowitz, V. Naik, J.-C. Golaz, and D. L. Mauzerall
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12681–12703, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12681-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12681-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Decreases in aerosols over the 21st century as projected by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) lead to increases up to 0.5 - 1 ºC in global temperature and up to 0.05 - 0.1 mm/day in global precipitation, depending strongly on present-day aerosol radiative forcing. In East Asia, future aerosol decreases could be responsible for 10-20% of the total temperature increase (30-40% with strong present-day aerosol forcing), even under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP8.5).
J. L. Schnell, M. J. Prather, B. Josse, V. Naik, L. W. Horowitz, P. Cameron-Smith, D. Bergmann, G. Zeng, D. A. Plummer, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, D. T. Shindell, G. Faluvegi, and S. A. Strode
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10581–10596, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10581-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10581-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We test global chemistry--climate models in their ability to simulate present-day surface ozone. Models are tested against observed hourly ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1°x1° grid cells. Using novel metrics, we find most models match the shape but not the amplitude of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles and match the pattern but not the magnitude of summer ozone enhancement. Most also match the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes
A. Stohl, B. Aamaas, M. Amann, L. H. Baker, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, O. Boucher, R. Cherian, W. Collins, N. Daskalakis, M. Dusinska, S. Eckhardt, J. S. Fuglestvedt, M. Harju, C. Heyes, Ø. Hodnebrog, J. Hao, U. Im, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, K. S. Law, M. T. Lund, R. Maas, C. R. MacIntosh, G. Myhre, S. Myriokefalitakis, D. Olivié, J. Quaas, B. Quennehen, J.-C. Raut, S. T. Rumbold, B. H. Samset, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, K. P. Shine, R. B. Skeie, S. Wang, K. E. Yttri, and T. Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10529–10566, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a summary of the findings of the ECLIPSE EU project. The project has investigated the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived climate pollutants (especially methane, ozone, aerosols) and has designed a global mitigation strategy that maximizes co-benefits between air quality and climate policy. Transient climate model simulations allowed quantifying the impacts on temperature (e.g., reduction in global warming by 0.22K for the decade 2041-2050) and precipitation.
K. P. Shine, R. P. Allan, W. J. Collins, and J. S. Fuglestvedt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 525–540, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-525-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-525-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Emissions due to human activity impact on rainfall. This impact depends on the properties of the gases or particles that are emitted. This paper uses improved understanding of relevant processes to produce a new measure, called the Global Precipitation-change Potential, which allows a direct comparison of the effect of different emissions on global-mean rainfall. Carbon dioxide, in the years following its emission, is shown to be less effective than methane emissions at causing rainfall change.
S. Eckhardt, B. Quennehen, D. J. L. Olivié, T. K. Berntsen, R. Cherian, J. H. Christensen, W. Collins, S. Crepinsek, N. Daskalakis, M. Flanner, A. Herber, C. Heyes, Ø. Hodnebrog, L. Huang, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, J. Langner, K. S. Law, M. T. Lund, R. Mahmood, A. Massling, S. Myriokefalitakis, I. E. Nielsen, J. K. Nøjgaard, J. Quaas, P. K. Quinn, J.-C. Raut, S. T. Rumbold, M. Schulz, S. Sharma, R. B. Skeie, H. Skov, T. Uttal, K. von Salzen, and A. Stohl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9413–9433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9413-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9413-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The concentrations of sulfate, black carbon and other aerosols in the Arctic are characterized by high values in late winter and spring (so-called Arctic Haze) and low values in summer. Models have long been struggling to capture this seasonality. In this study, we evaluate sulfate and BC concentrations from different updated models and emissions against a comprehensive pan-Arctic measurement data set. We find that the models improved but still struggle to get the maximum concentrations.
L. H. Baker, W. J. Collins, D. J. L. Olivié, R. Cherian, Ø. Hodnebrog, G. Myhre, and J. Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8201–8216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8201-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8201-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of removing land-based anthropogenic emissions of three aerosol species, using four fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Removing SO2 emissions leads to warming globally, strongest in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and an increase in NH precipitation. Organic and black carbon (OC, BC) have a weaker impact, and less certainty on the response; OC (BC) removal shows a weak overall warming (cooling), and both show small increases in precipitation globally.
M. C. Woody, J. J. West, S. H. Jathar, A. L. Robinson, and S. Arunachalam
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6929–6942, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6929-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6929-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Utilizing an aircraft-specific parameterization based on smog chamber data in a regional AQM, contributions of non-traditional secondary organic aerosols (NTSOA) from aircraft emissions of semi-volatile and intermediate volatility organic compounds were assessed. NTSOA, a previously unaccounted component of PM2.5 in most AQMs, contributed up to 7.4% of aviation-attributable PM2.5 at the airport and rose to 17.9% downwind, suggesting its significance in aviation-attributed PM2.5 at all scales.
L. Ran, D. H. Loughlin, D. Yang, Z. Adelman, B. H. Baek, and C. G. Nolte
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1775–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1775-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1775-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present and demonstrate Version 2.0 of the Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) method. This method produces multi-decadal air pollutant emission projections suitable for air quality modeling. The method focuses on energy-related emissions, including those from the electric sector, buildings, industry and transportation. ESP v2.0 enhances ESP v1.0 by taking population growth, migration and land use change into consideration.
M. M. Fry, M. D. Schwarzkopf, Z. Adelman, and J. J. West
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 523–535, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-523-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-523-2014, 2014
F. M. O'Connor, C. E. Johnson, O. Morgenstern, N. L. Abraham, P. Braesicke, M. Dalvi, G. A. Folberth, M. G. Sanderson, P. J. Telford, A. Voulgarakis, P. J. Young, G. Zeng, W. J. Collins, and J. A. Pyle
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 41–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-41-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-41-2014, 2014
J. Rissman, S. Arunachalam, M. Woody, J. J. West, T. BenDor, and F. S. Binkowski
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9285–9302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9285-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9285-2013, 2013
V. Naik, A. Voulgarakis, A. M. Fiore, L. W. Horowitz, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Lin, M. J. Prather, P. J. Young, D. Bergmann, P. J. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, T. P. C. van Noije, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, R. Skeie, D. T. Shindell, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5277–5298, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, 2013
K. W. Bowman, D. T. Shindell, H. M. Worden, J.F. Lamarque, P. J. Young, D. S. Stevenson, Z. Qu, M. de la Torre, D. Bergmann, P. J. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Collins, R. Doherty, S. B. Dalsøren, G. Faluvegi, G. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. M. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, D. A. Plummer, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, A. Voulgarakis, G. Zeng, S. S. Kulawik, A. M. Aghedo, and J. R. Worden
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4057–4072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4057-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4057-2013, 2013
D. T. Shindell, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Schulz, M. Flanner, C. Jiao, M. Chin, P. J. Young, Y. H. Lee, L. Rotstayn, N. Mahowald, G. Milly, G. Faluvegi, Y. Balkanski, W. J. Collins, A. J. Conley, S. Dalsoren, R. Easter, S. Ghan, L. Horowitz, X. Liu, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, S. T. Rumbold, R. Skeie, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, T. Takemura, A. Voulgarakis, J.-H. Yoon, and F. Lo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2939–2974, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013, 2013
D. S. Stevenson, P. J. Young, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, A. Voulgarakis, R. B. Skeie, S. B. Dalsoren, G. Myhre, T. K. Berntsen, G. A. Folberth, S. T. Rumbold, W. J. Collins, I. A. MacKenzie, R. M. Doherty, G. Zeng, T. P. C. van Noije, A. Strunk, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, D. A. Plummer, S. A. Strode, L. Horowitz, Y. H. Lee, S. Szopa, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, B. Josse, I. Cionni, M. Righi, V. Eyring, A. Conley, K. W. Bowman, O. Wild, and A. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3063–3085, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, 2013
Y. H. Lee, J.-F. Lamarque, M. G. Flanner, C. Jiao, D. T. Shindell, T. Berntsen, M. M. Bisiaux, J. Cao, W. J. Collins, M. Curran, R. Edwards, G. Faluvegi, S. Ghan, L. W. Horowitz, J. R. McConnell, J. Ming, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, K. Sudo, T. Takemura, F. Thevenon, B. Xu, and J.-H. Yoon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2607–2634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2607-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2607-2013, 2013
W. J. Collins, M. M. Fry, H. Yu, J. S. Fuglestvedt, D. T. Shindell, and J. J. West
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2471–2485, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2471-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2471-2013, 2013
A. Voulgarakis, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, P. J. Young, M. J. Prather, O. Wild, R. D. Field, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, D. S. Stevenson, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, 2013
P. J. Young, A. T. Archibald, K. W. Bowman, J.-F. Lamarque, V. Naik, D. S. Stevenson, S. Tilmes, A. Voulgarakis, O. Wild, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, D. T. Shindell, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2063–2090, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, 2013
J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, B. Josse, P. J. Young, I. Cionni, V. Eyring, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Collins, R. Doherty, S. Dalsoren, G. Faluvegi, G. Folberth, S. J. Ghan, L. W. Horowitz, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, D. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, M. Schulz, R. B. Skeie, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, A. Voulgarakis, and G. Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 179–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, 2013
Y. Fang, V. Naik, L. W. Horowitz, and D. L. Mauzerall
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1377–1394, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1377-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1377-2013, 2013
J. G. John, A. M. Fiore, V. Naik, L. W. Horowitz, and J. P. Dunne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 12021–12036, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12021-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12021-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Subject: Gases | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Chemistry (chemical composition and reactions)
Constraining the budget of NOx and volatile organic compounds at a remote tropical island using multi-platform observations and WRF-Chem model simulations
Multi-observational estimation of regional and sectoral emission contributions to the persistent high growth rate of atmospheric CH4 for 2020–2022
Representing improved tropospheric ozone distribution over the Northern Hemisphere by including lightning NOx emissions in CHIMERE
Assessing the ability to quantify the decrease in NOx anthropogenic emissions in 2019 compared to 2005 using OMI and TROPOMI satellite observations
Tracking daily NOx emissions from an urban agglomeration based on TROPOMI NO2 and a local ensemble transform Kalman filter
Evaluation of O3, H2O, CO, and NOy climatologies simulated by four global models in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere with IAGOS measurements
Source contribution to ozone pollution during June 2021 fire events in Arizona: insights from WRF-Chem-tagged O3 and CO
High-resolution mapping of on-road vehicle emissions with real-time traffic datasets based on big data
Sensitivity of climate–chemistry model simulated atmospheric composition to the application of an inverse relationship between NOx emission and lightning flash frequency
Regional and sectoral contributions of NOx and reactive carbon emission sources to global trends in tropospheric ozone during the 2000–2018 period
Underappreciated contributions of biogenic volatile organic compounds from urban green spaces to ozone pollution
Chemistry–climate feedback of atmospheric methane in a methane-emission-flux-driven chemistry–climate model
Surface ozone trend variability across the United States and the impact of heat waves (1990–2023)
Sensitivity of climate effects of hydrogen to leakage size, location, and chemical background
Evaluating tropospheric nitrogen dioxide in UKCA using OMI satellite retrievals over south and east Asia
Shifts in global atmospheric oxidant chemistry from land cover change
Technical note: A comparative study of chemistry schemes for volcanic sulfur dioxide in Lagrangian transport simulations – a case study of the 2019 Raikoke eruption
Revisiting the high tropospheric ozone over southern Africa: role of biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions
Monoterpene oxidation pathways initiated by acyl peroxy radical addition
Local and transboundary contributions to NOy loadings across East Asia using CMAQ-ISAM and a GEMS-informed emission inventory during the winter–spring transition
A New Parameterization of Photolysis Rates for Oxygenated Volatile Organic Compounds (OVOCs)
Estimating the variability in NOx emissions from Wuhan with TROPOMI NO2 data during 2018 to 2023
Effects of enhancing nitrogen use efficiency in cropland and livestock systems on agricultural ammonia emissions and particulate matter air quality in China
Enhanced understanding of atmospheric blocking modulation on ozone dynamics within a high-resolution Earth system model
Natural emissions of VOC and NOx over Africa constrained by TROPOMI HCHO and NO2 data using the MAGRITTEv1.1 model
Contributions of lightning to long-term trends and inter-annual variability in global atmospheric chemistry constrained by Schumann Resonance observations
Simulated photochemical response to observational constraints on aerosol vertical distribution over North China
Impacts of wildfire smoke aerosols on near-surface ozone photochemistry
Anthropogenic emission controls reduce summertime ozone–temperature sensitivity in the United States
Investigating the response of China's surface ozone concentration to the future changes of multiple factors
The 21st-century wetting inhibits growing surface ozone in Northwestern China
Assessing the relative impacts of satellite ozone and its precursor observations to improve global tropospheric ozone analysis using multiple chemical reanalysis systems
Evaluating present-day and future impacts of agricultural ammonia emissions on atmospheric chemistry and climate
Air-pollution-satellite-based CO2 emission inversion: system evaluation, sensitivity analysis, and future research direction
The impact of sea spray aerosol on photochemical ozone formation over eastern China: heterogeneous reaction of chlorine particles and radiative effect
Insights into ozone pollution control in urban areas by decoupling meteorological factors based on machine learning
Improving the computation efficiency of a source-oriented chemical mechanism for the simultaneous source apportionment of ozone and secondary particulate pollutants
Quantification of regional net CO2 flux errors in the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 model intercomparison project (MIP) ensemble using airborne measurements
Reactive nitrogen in and around the northeastern and mid-Atlantic US: sources, sinks, and connections with ozone
Preindustrial-to-present-day changes in atmospheric carbon monoxide: agreement and gaps between ice archives and global model reconstructions
Investigating processes influencing simulation of local Arctic wintertime anthropogenic pollution in Fairbanks, Alaska, during ALPACA-2022
Urban ozone formation and sensitivities to volatile chemical products, cooking emissions, and NOx upwind of and within two Los Angeles Basin cities
Causes of growing middle-to-upper tropospheric ozone over the northwest Pacific region
Impact of introducing electric vehicles on ground-level O3 and PM2.5 in the Greater Tokyo Area: yearly trends and the importance of changes in the urban heat island effect
Modelling Arctic Lower Tropospheric Ozone: processes controlling seasonal variations
Climate-driven biogenic emissions alleviate the impact of man-made emission reduction on O3 control in Pearl River Delta region, southern China
South Asia ammonia emission inversion through assimilating IASI observations
A CO2–Δ14CO2 inversion setup for estimating European fossil CO2 emissions
Maximum ozone concentrations in the southwestern US and Texas: implications of the growing predominance of the background contribution
Derivation of atmospheric reaction mechanisms for volatile organic compounds by the SAPRC mechanism generation system (MechGen)
Catalina Poraicu, Jean-François Müller, Trissevgeni Stavrakou, Crist Amelynck, Bert W. D. Verreyken, Niels Schoon, Corinne Vigouroux, Nicolas Kumps, Jérôme Brioude, Pierre Tulet, and Camille Mouchel-Vallon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 6903–6941, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6903-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6903-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the sources and impacts of nitrogen oxides and organic compounds over a remote tropical island. Simulations of the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) were evaluated using in situ Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and satellite measurements. This work highlights gaps in current models, like missing sources of key organic compounds and inaccuracies in emission inventories, emphasizing the importance of improving chemical and dynamical processes in atmospheric modelling for budget estimates in tropical regions.
Yosuke Niwa, Yasunori Tohjima, Yukio Terao, Tazu Saeki, Akihiko Ito, Taku Umezawa, Kyohei Yamada, Motoki Sasakawa, Toshinobu Machida, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Hideki Nara, Hiroshi Tanimoto, Hitoshi Mukai, Yukio Yoshida, Shinji Morimoto, Shinya Takatsuji, Kazuhiro Tsuboi, Yousuke Sawa, Hidekazu Matsueda, Kentaro Ishijima, Ryo Fujita, Daisuke Goto, Xin Lan, Kenneth Schuldt, Michal Heliasz, Tobias Biermann, Lukasz Chmura, Jarsolaw Necki, Irène Xueref-Remy, and Damiano Sferlazzo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 6757–6785, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6757-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6757-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study estimated regional and sectoral emission contributions to the unprecedented surge of atmospheric methane for 2020–2022. The methane is the second most important greenhouse gas, and its emissions reduction is urgently required to mitigate global warming. Numerical modeling-based estimates with three different sets of atmospheric observations consistently suggested large contributions of biogenic emissions from South Asia and Southeast Asia to the surge of atmospheric methane.
Sanhita Ghosh, Arineh Cholakian, Sylvain Mailler, and Laurent Menut
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 6273–6297, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6273-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6273-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we evaluate the present state of modelling lightning flashes over the Northern Hemisphere, using the classical CTH (cloud-top height) scheme and the ICEFLUX scheme with the CHIMERE model. Our study provides a comprehensive 3D comparison of model outputs to assess the robustness and applicability of these schemes. An improvement in O3 distribution in the tropical free troposphere is observed due to inclusion of LNOx (nitrogen oxide emissions from lightning) in the model. Inclusion of LNOx also reduces the lifetime of trace gas CH4.
Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Grégoire Broquet, Elise Potier, Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, Adrien Martinez, Robin Plauchu, Rimal Abeed, Aurélien Sicsik-Paré, Gaelle Dufour, Adriana Coman, Dilek Savas, Guillaume Siour, Henk Eskes, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, and Stijn N. C. Dellaert
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 6047–6068, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6047-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6047-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the potential of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite observations to inform about the decrease in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in 2019 compared with 2005 at regional to national scales in Europe. Both the OMI and TROPOMI inversions show decreases in European NOx anthropogenic emission budgets in 2019 compared to 2005 but with different magnitudes.
Yawen Kong, Bo Zheng, and Yuxi Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5959–5976, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5959-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5959-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Current high-resolution satellite remote sensing technologies provide a unique opportunity to derive timely high-resolution emission data. We developed an emission inversion system to assimilate satellite NO2 data to obtain daily kilometer-scale NOx emission inventories. Our results enhance inventory accuracy, allowing us to capture the effects of pollution control policies on daily emissions (e.g., during COVID-19 lockdowns) and improve fine-scale air quality modeling.
Yann Cohen, Didier Hauglustaine, Nicolas Bellouin, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Sigrun Matthes, Agnieszka Skowron, Robin Thor, Ulrich Bundke, Andreas Petzold, Susanne Rohs, Valérie Thouret, Andreas Zahn, and Helmut Ziereis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5793–5836, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5793-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5793-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The chemical composition of the atmosphere near the tropopause is a key parameter for evaluating the climate impact of subsonic aviation pollutants. This study uses in situ data collected aboard passenger aircraft to assess the ability of four chemistry–climate models to reproduce (bi-)decadal climatologies of ozone, carbon monoxide, water vapour, and reactive nitrogen in this region. The models reproduce the very distinct ozone seasonality in the upper troposphere and in the lower stratosphere well.
Yafang Guo, Mohammad Amin Mirrezaei, Armin Sorooshian, and Avelino F. Arellano
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5591–5616, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5591-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5591-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the contributions of fire and anthropogenic emissions to O3 levels in Phoenix, Arizona, during a period of intense heat and drought conditions. We find that fire exacerbates O3 pollution and that interactions between weather, climate, and air chemistry are important to consider. This has implications for activities related to formulating emission reduction strategies in areas that are currently understudied yet becoming relevant due to reports of increasing global aridity.
Yujia Wang, Hongbin Wang, Bo Zhang, Peng Liu, Xinfeng Wang, Shuchun Si, Likun Xue, Qingzhu Zhang, and Qiao Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5537–5555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5537-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5537-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study established a bottom-up approach that employs real-time traffic flows and interpolation to obtain a spatially continuous on-road vehicle emission mapping for the main urban area of Jinan. The diurnal variation, spatial distribution, and emission hotspots were analyzed with clustering and hotspot analysis, showing unique fine-scale variation characteristics of on-road vehicle emissions. Future scenario analysis demonstrates remarkable benefits of electrification on emission reduction.
Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón, Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez, Heidi Huntrieser, Patrick Jöckel, and Eric J. Bucsela
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5557–5575, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5557-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5557-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning plays a significant role in tropospheric chemistry by producing substantial amounts of nitrogen oxides. According to recent estimates, thunderstorms that produce a higher lightning frequency rate also produce less nitrogen oxide per flash. We implemented the dependency of nitrogen oxide production per flash on lightning flash frequency in a chemical atmospheric model.
Aditya Nalam, Aura Lupaşcu, Tabish Ansari, and Tim Butler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5287–5311, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tropospheric O3 molecules are labeled with the identity of their precursor source to simulate contributions from various emission sources to the global tropospheric O3 burden (TOB) and its trends. With an equatorward shift, anthropogenic NOx emissions become significantly more efficient at producing O3 and play a major role in driving TOB trends, mainly due to larger convection at the tropics effectively lifting O3 and its precursors to the free troposphere, where O3 lifetime is longer.
Haofan Wang, Yuejin Li, Yiming Liu, Xiao Lu, Yang Zhang, Qi Fan, Chong Shen, Senchao Lai, Yan Zhou, Tao Zhang, and Dingli Yue
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5233–5250, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5233-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5233-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how urban green spaces (UGSs) in Guangzhou influence ozone levels. By using advanced models, we found that natural emissions from these areas can significantly affect air quality. Our results suggest that the design and planning of UGSs should not only consider aesthetics and social factors but also their environmental impacts on air quality.
Laura Stecher, Franziska Winterstein, Patrick Jöckel, Michael Ponater, Mariano Mertens, and Martin Dameris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5133–5158, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5133-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5133-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Methane, the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas, is chemically decomposed in the atmosphere. The chemical sink of atmospheric methane is not constant but depends on the temperature and on the abundance of its reaction partners. In this study, we use a global chemistry–climate model to assess the feedback of atmospheric methane induced by changes in the chemical sink in a warming climate and its implications for the chemical composition and the surface air temperature change.
Kai-Lan Chang, Brian C. McDonald, Colin Harkins, and Owen R. Cooper
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5101–5132, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5101-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5101-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Exposure to high levels of ozone can be harmful to human health. This study shows consistent and robust evidence of decreasing ozone extremes across much of the United States over the period from 1990 to 2023, previously attributed to ozone precursor emission controls. Nevertheless, we also show that the increasing heat wave frequencies are likely to contribute to additional ozone exceedances, slowing the progress of decreasing the frequency of ozone exceedances.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Marit Sandstad, Srinath Krishnan, Gunnar Myhre, and Maria Sand
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4929–4942, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4929-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4929-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrogen leakages can alter the amount of climate gases in the atmosphere and hence have a climate impact. In this study we investigate, using an atmospheric chemistry model, how this indirect climate effect differs with different amounts of leakages and with where the hydrogen leaks and if this effect changes in the future. The effect is largest for emissions far from areas where hydrogen is removed from the atmosphere by the soil, but these are not relevant locations for a future hydrogen economy.
Alok K. Pandey, David S. Stevenson, Alcide Zhao, Richard J. Pope, Ryan Hossaini, Krishan Kumar, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4785–4802, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4785-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrogen dioxide is an air pollutant largely controlled by human activity that affects ozone, methane, and aerosols. Satellite instruments can quantify column NO2 and, by carefully matching the time and location of measurements, enable evaluation of model simulations. NO2 over south and east Asia is assessed, showing that the model captures not only many features of the measurements, but also important differences that suggest model deficiencies in representing several aspects of the atmospheric chemistry of NO2.
Ryan Vella, Sergey Gromov, Clara M. Nussbaumer, Laura Stecher, Matthias Kohl, Samuel Ruhl, Holger Tost, Jos Lelieveld, and Andrea Pozzer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1800, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1800, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated how replacing forests with farmland and grazing areas affects atmospheric composition. Using a global climate-chemistry model, we found that deforestation reduces BVOCs, increases farming pollutants, and shifts ozone chemistry. These changes lead to a small cooling effect on the climate. Restoring natural vegetation could reverse some of these effects.
Mingzhao Liu, Lars Hoffmann, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Zhongyin Cai, Sabine Grießbach, and Yi Heng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4403–4418, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4403-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4403-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the transport and chemical decomposition of volcanic SO2, focusing on the 2019 Raikoke event. By comparing two different chemistry modeling schemes, we found that including complex chemical reactions leads to a more accurate prediction of how long SO2 stays in the atmosphere. This research helps improve our understanding of volcanic pollution and its impact on air quality and climate, providing better tools for scientists to track and predict the movement of these pollutants.
Yufen Wang, Ke Li, Xi Chen, Zhenjiang Yang, Minglong Tang, Pascoal M. D. Campos, Yang Yang, Xu Yue, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4455–4475, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4455-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4455-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions on high tropospheric ozone levels are not well studied in southern Africa. We combined model simulations with recent observations at the surface and from space to quantify tropospheric ozone and its drivers in southern Africa. Our work focuses on the impact of emissions from different sources at different spatial scales, contributing to a comprehensive understanding of air pollution drivers and their uncertainties in southern Africa.
Dominika Pasik, Thomas Golin Almeida, Emelda Ahongshangbam, Siddharth Iyer, and Nanna Myllys
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4313–4331, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4313-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4313-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used quantum chemistry methods to investigate the oxidation mechanisms of acyl peroxy radicals (APRs) with various monoterpenes. Our findings reveal unique oxidation pathways for different monoterpenes, leading to either chain-terminating products or highly reactive intermediates that can contribute to particle formation in the atmosphere. This research highlights APRs as potentially significant but underexplored atmospheric oxidants that may influence future approaches to modelling climate.
Jincheol Park, Yunsoo Choi, and Sagun Kayastha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4291–4311, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4291-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4291-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated NOx emission contributions to NOy loadings across five regions of East Asia during the 2022 winter–spring transition through chemical transport modeling informed by satellite data. As seasons progress, local contributions within each region to its NOy budget decreased from 32 %–43 % to 23 %–30 %, while transboundary contributions increased from 16 %–33 % to 27 %–37 %, driven by a shift in synoptic settings that allowed pollutants to spread more broadly across the regions.
Yuwen Peng, Bin Yuan, Sihang Wang, Xin Song, Zhe Peng, Wenjie Wang, Suxia Yang, Jipeng Qi, Xianjun He, Yibo Huangfu, Xiao-Bing Li, and Min Shao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1649, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1649, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A structural-based parameterization for the photolysis rates of oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs) was integrated into an updated chemical mechanism. This method links photolysis rates to species' structure, bypassing limitations of insufficient quantum yield data. Box model results show that non-HCHO OVOCs, particularly multifunctional carbonyl compounds, significantly contribute to radical production, with alkene and aromatic oxidation products playing key roles.
Qianqian Zhang, K. Folkert Boersma, Chiel van der Laan, Alba Mols, Bin Zhao, Shengyue Li, and Yuepeng Pan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3313–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3313-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3313-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate NOx emission estimates are required to better understand air pollution. This study investigates and demonstrates the ability of the superposition column model in combination with TROPOMI tropospheric NO2 column data to estimate city-scale NOx emissions and lifetimes and their variabilities. The results of this work nevertheless confirm the strength of the superposition column model in estimating urban NOx emissions with reasonable accuracy.
Biao Luo, Lei Liu, David H. Y. Yung, Tiangang Yuan, Jingwei Zhang, Leo T. H. Ng, and Amos P. K. Tai
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-72, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-72, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Through a combination of emission models and air quality model, we aimed to address the pressing issue of poor nitrogen management while promoting sustainable food systems and public health in China. We discovered that improving nitrogen management of crop and livestock can substantially reduce air pollutant emissions, particularly in North China Plain. Our findings further provide the benefits of such interventions on PM2.5 reductions, offering valuable insights for policymakers.
Wenbin Kou, Yang Gao, Dan Tong, Xiaojie Guo, Xiadong An, Wenyu Liu, Mengshi Cui, Xiuwen Guo, Shaoqing Zhang, Huiwang Gao, and Lixin Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3029–3048, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3029-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3029-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Unlike traditional numerical studies, we apply a high-resolution Earth system model, improving simulations of surface ozone and large-scale circulations such as atmospheric blocking. Besides local heat waves, we quantify the impact of atmospheric blocking on downstream ozone concentrations, which is closely associated with the blocking position. We identify three major pathways of Rossby wave propagation, stressing the critical role of large-scale circulation in regional air quality.
Beata Opacka, Trissevgeni Stavrakou, Jean-François Müller, Isabelle De Smedt, Jos van Geffen, Eloise A. Marais, Rebekah P. Horner, Dylan B. Millet, Kelly C. Wells, and Alex B. Guenther
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2863–2894, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2863-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2863-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation releases biogenic volatile organic compounds, while soils and lightning contribute to the natural emissions of nitrogen oxides into the atmosphere. These gases interact in complex ways. Using satellite data and models, we developed a new method to simultaneously optimize these natural emissions over Africa in 2019. Our approach resulted in an increase in natural emissions, supported by independent data indicating that current estimates are underestimated.
Xiaobo Wang, Yuzhong Zhang, Tamás Bozóki, Ruosi Liang, Xinchun Xie, Shutao Zhao, Rui Wang, Yujia Zhao, and Shuai Sun
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-370, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Schumann Resonance observations are used to parameterize lightning NOx emissions for better capturing global lightning trend and variability. Updated simulations reveal insignificant trend but greater variability in lightning NOx emissions, impacting tropospheric NOx, O3 and OH. Lightning generally counteracts non-lightning factors, reducing the inter-annua variability of tropospheric O3 and OH. Variations of global lightning play important role in understanding the atmospheric methane budget.
Xi Chen, Ke Li, Ting Yang, Xipeng Jin, Lei Chen, Yang Yang, Shuman Zhao, Bo Hu, Bin Zhu, Zifa Wang, and Hong Liao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-430, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-430, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol vertical distribution that plays a crucial role in aerosol-photolysis interaction (API) remains underrepresented in chemical models. We integrated lidar and radiosonde observations to constrain the simulated aerosol profiles over North China and quantified the photochemical responses. The increased photolysis rates in the lower layers led to increased ozone and accounted for a 36 %–56 % reduction in API effects, resulting in enhanced atmospheric oxidizing capacity and aerosol formation.
Jiaqi Shen, Ronald C. Cohen, Glenn M. Wolfe, and Xiaomeng Jin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-706, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-706, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows large chemical and radiative effects of smoke aerosols from fires on near-surface ozone production. Aerosol loading and NOx levels are identified as the primary factors influencing these effects. Furthermore, we show that the surface PM2.5 to NO2 column ratio can be used as an indicator for identifying aerosol-dominated regimes, facilitating the assessments of aerosol impacts on ozone formation through satellite observations.
Shuai Li, Haolin Wang, and Xiao Lu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2725–2743, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2725-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2725-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Summertime ozone–temperature sensitivity has decreased by 50 % from 3.0 ppbv per K in 1990 to 1.5 ppb per K in 2021 in the US. GEOS-Chem simulations show that anthropogenic nitrogen oxide emission reduction is the dominant driver of ozone–temperature sensitivity decline by influencing both temperature direct and temperature indirect processes. Reduced ozone–temperature sensitivity has decreased ozone enhancement from low to high temperatures by an average of 6.8 ppbv across the US.
Jinya Yang, Yutong Wang, Lei Zhang, and Yu Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2649–2666, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2649-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2649-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a modeling framework to predict future ozone concentrations (till the 2060s) in China following an IPCC scenario. We evaluate the contributions of climatic, anthropogenic, and biogenic factors by season and region. We find persistent emission controls will alter the nonlinear response of ozone to its precursors and dominate the declining ozone level. The outcomes highlight the importance of human actions, even with a climate penalty on air quality.
Xiaodong Zhang, Yu Yan, Ning Zhang, Wenpeng Wang, Huabing Suo, Xiaohu Jian, Chao Wang, Haibo Ma, Hong Gao, Zhaoli Yang, Tao Huang, and Jianmin Ma
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-258, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-258, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study performed comprehensive sensitivity model simulations to explore the surface O3 responses to historical and projected climate change in Northwestern China (NW). Our results reveal that substantial wetting trends since the 21st century have mitigated O3 growth in this region, with the influence of wetting on O3 evolution outweighing the warming effect. These findings should be taken into account in future policymaking aimed at scientifically reducing O3 pollution in NW.
Takashi Sekiya, Emanuele Emili, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Antje Inness, Zhen Qu, R. Bradley Pierce, Dylan Jones, Helen Worden, William Y. Y. Cheng, Vincent Huijnen, and Gerbrand Koren
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2243–2268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2243-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2243-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Five global chemical reanalysis datasets were used to assess the relative impacts of assimilating satellite ozone and its precursor measurements on tropospheric ozone analyses for 2010. The multiple reanalysis system comparison allows an evaluation of the dependency of the impacts on different reanalysis systems. The results suggested the importance of satellite ozone and its precursor measurements for improving ozone analysis in the whole troposphere, with varying magnitudes among the systems.
Maureen Beaudor, Didier Hauglustaine, Juliette Lathière, Martin Van Damme, Lieven Clarisse, and Nicolas Vuichard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2017–2046, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2017-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2017-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Agriculture is the biggest ammonia (NH3) source, impacting air quality, climate, and ecosystems. Because of food demand, NH3 emissions are projected to rise by 2100. Using a global model, we analyzed the impact of present and future NH3 emissions generated from a land model. Our results show improved ammonia patterns compared to a reference inventory. Future scenarios predict up to 70 % increase in global NH3 burden, with significant changes in radiative forcing that can greatly elevate N2O.
Hui Li, Jiaxin Qiu, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1949–1963, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1949-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1949-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We conduct a sensitivity analysis with 31 tests on various factors including prior emissions, model resolution, satellite constraint, and other system configurations to assess the vulnerability of emission estimates across temporal, sectoral, and regional dimensions. This reveals the robustness of emissions estimated by this air-pollution-satellite-based CO2 emission inversion system, with relative change between tests and base inversion below 4.0 % for national annual NOx and CO2 emissions.
Yingying Hong, Yuqi Zhu, Yuxuan Huang, Yiming Liu, Chuqi Xiong, and Qi Fan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4132, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4132, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the impact of sea spray aerosol on ozone formation across Eastern China, highlighting its complex influence through both chemical reactions and radiative effects, which vary seasonally and geographically.
Yuqing Qiu, Xin Li, Wenxuan Chai, Yi Liu, Mengdi Song, Xudong Tian, Qiaoli Zou, Wenjun Lou, Wangyao Zhang, Juan Li, and Yuanhang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1749–1763, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1749-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1749-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The chemical reactions of ozone (O3) formation are related to meteorology and local emissions. Here, a random forest approach was used to eliminate the effects of meteorological factors (dispersion or transport) on O3 and its precursors. Variations in the sensitivity of O3 formation and the apportionment of emission sources were revealed after meteorological normalization. Our results suggest that meteorological variations should be considered when diagnosing O3 formation.
Qixiang Xu, Fangcheng Su, Ke Wang, Ruiqin Zhang, Qi Ying, and Michael J. Kleeman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-44, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-44, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This manuscript introduces a novel approach for improving the computational efficiency and scalability of source-oriented chemical mechanisms by simplifying the representation of reactions involving source-tagged species and implementing a source-oriented Euler Backward Iterative (EBI) solver. These advancements reduce simulation times by up to 74 % while maintaining accuracy, offering significant practical benefits for long-term source apportionment studies.
Jeongmin Yun, Junjie Liu, Brendan Byrne, Brad Weir, Lesley E. Ott, Kathryn McKain, Bianca C. Baier, Luciana V. Gatti, and Sebastien C. Biraud
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1725–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1725-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1725-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study quantifies errors in regional net surface–atmosphere CO2 flux estimates from an inverse model ensemble using airborne CO2 measurements. Our results show that flux error estimates based on observations significantly exceed those computed from the ensemble spread of flux estimates in regions with high fossil fuel emissions. This finding suggests the presence of systematic biases in the inversion estimates, associated with errors in the fossil fuel emissions common to all models.
Min Huang, Gregory R. Carmichael, Kevin W. Bowman, Isabelle De Smedt, Andreas Colliander, Michael H. Cosh, Sujay V. Kumar, Alex B. Guenther, Scott J. Janz, Ryan M. Stauffer, Anne M. Thompson, Niko M. Fedkin, Robert J. Swap, John D. Bolten, and Alicia T. Joseph
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1449–1476, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1449-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1449-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use model simulations along with multiplatform, multidisciplinary observations and a range of analysis methods to estimate and understand the distributions, temporal changes, and impacts of reactive nitrogen and ozone over the most populous US region that has undergone significant environmental changes. Deposition, biogenic emissions, and extra-regional sources have been playing increasingly important roles in controlling pollutant budgets in this area as local anthropogenic emissions drop.
Xavier Faïn, Sophie Szopa, Vaishali Naïk, Patricia Martinerie, David M. Etheridge, Rachael H. Rhodes, Cathy M. Trudinger, Vasilii V. Petrenko, Kévin Fourteau, and Philip Place
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1105–1119, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1105-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1105-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon monoxide (CO) plays a crucial role in the atmosphere's oxidizing capacity. In this study, we analyse how historical (1850–2014) [CO] outputs from state-of-the-art global chemistry–climate models over Greenland and Antarctica are able to capture both absolute values and trends recorded in multi-site ice archives. A disparity in [CO] growth rates emerges in the Northern Hemisphere between models and observations from 1920–1975 CE, possibly linked to uncertainties in CO emission factors.
Natalie Brett, Kathy S. Law, Steve R. Arnold, Javier G. Fochesatto, Jean-Christophe Raut, Tatsuo Onishi, Robert Gilliam, Kathleen Fahey, Deanna Huff, George Pouliot, Brice Barret, Elsa Dieudonné, Roman Pohorsky, Julia Schmale, Andrea Baccarini, Slimane Bekki, Gianluca Pappaccogli, Federico Scoto, Stefano Decesari, Antonio Donateo, Meeta Cesler-Maloney, William Simpson, Patrice Medina, Barbara D'Anna, Brice Temime-Roussel, Joel Savarino, Sarah Albertin, Jingqiu Mao, Becky Alexander, Allison Moon, Peter F. DeCarlo, Vanessa Selimovic, Robert Yokelson, and Ellis S. Robinson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1063–1104, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1063-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1063-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Processes influencing dispersion of local anthropogenic pollution in Arctic wintertime are investigated with Lagrangian dispersion modelling. Simulated power plant plume rise that considers temperature inversion layers improves results compared to observations (interior Alaska). Modelled surface concentrations are improved by representation of vertical mixing and emission estimates. Large increases in diesel vehicle emissions at temperatures reaching −35°C are required to reproduce observed NOx.
Chelsea E. Stockwell, Matthew M. Coggon, Rebecca H. Schwantes, Colin Harkins, Bert Verreyken, Congmeng Lyu, Qindan Zhu, Lu Xu, Jessica B. Gilman, Aaron Lamplugh, Jeff Peischl, Michael A. Robinson, Patrick R. Veres, Meng Li, Andrew W. Rollins, Kristen Zuraski, Sunil Baidar, Shang Liu, Toshihiro Kuwayama, Steven S. Brown, Brian C. McDonald, and Carsten Warneke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1121–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1121-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1121-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In urban areas, emissions from everyday products like paints, cleaners, and personal care products, along with non-traditional sources such as cooking, are increasingly important and impact air quality. This study uses a box model to evaluate how these emissions impact ozone in the Los Angeles Basin and quantifies the impact of gaseous cooking emissions. Accurate representation of these and other anthropogenic sources in inventories is crucial for informing effective air quality policies.
Xiaodan Ma, Jianping Huang, Michaela I. Hegglin, Patrick Jöckel, and Tianliang Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 943–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-943-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-943-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research explored changes in ozone levels in the northwest Pacific region over 30 years, revealing a significant increase in the middle-to-upper troposphere, especially during spring and summer. This rise is influenced by both stratospheric and tropospheric sources, which affect climate and air quality in East Asia. This work underscores the need for continued study to understand underlying mechanisms.
Hiroo Hata, Norifumi Mizushima, and Tomohiko Ihara
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1037–1061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1037-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1037-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The introduction of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is expected to reduce the primary air pollutants from vehicular exhaust and evaporative emissions while reducing the anthropogenic heat produced by vehicles, ultimately mitigating the urban heat island (UHI) effect. This study revealed the impact of introducing BEVs on the decrease in the UHI effect and the impact of BEVs on the formation of tropospheric ozone and fine particulate matter in the Greater Tokyo Area of Japan.
Wanmin Gong, Stephen R. Beagley, Kenjiro Toyota, Henrik Skov, Jesper Heile Christensen, Alexandru Lupu, Diane Pendlebury, Junhua Zhang, Ulas Im, Yugo Kanaya, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, Roberto Sommariva, Peter Effertz, John W. Halfacre, Nis Jepsen, Rigel Kivi, Theodore K. Koenig, Katrin Müller, Claus Nordstrøm, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Paul B. Shepson, William R. Simpson, Sverre Solberg, Ralf M. Staebler, David W. Tarasick, Roeland Van Malderen, and Mika Vestenius
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3750, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3750, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study showed that the springtime O3 depletion plays a critical role in driving the surface O3 seasonal cycle in Central Arctic. The O3 depletion events, while occurring most notably within the lowest few hundred metres above the Arctic Ocean, can induce a 5–7 % of loss in the pan-Arctic tropospheric O3 burden during springtime. The study also found an enhancement in O3 and NOy (mostly PAN) concentrations in the Arctic due to northern boreal wildfires, particularly at altitudes.
Nan Wang, Song Liu, Jiawei Xu, Yanyu Wang, Chun Li, Hua Lu, and Fumo Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3771, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We found that climate warming and changes in vegetation have increased biogenic volatile organic compound emissions in the Pearl River Delta region. These increasing natural emissions, mainly due to climate warming, are weakening the benefits of reducing man-made emission control, leading to higher ozone levels. This work helps us understand how climate change influences air quality and provides important insights for improving pollution control strategies in the future.
Ji Xia, Yi Zhou, Li Fang, Yingfei Qi, Dehao Li, Hong Liao, and Jianbing Jin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3938, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3938, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study established an ammonia emission inventory in South Asia via assimilation-based inversion system. The posterior emissions, calculated by integrating the CEDS inventory and IASI satellite observations, showed significant improvement over the prior. Validation against various measurements all support our posterior emission. It offers valuable insights of ammonia emissions for policymakers and researchers aiming to develop air quality management and mitigation strategies there.
Carlos Gómez-Ortiz, Guillaume Monteil, Sourish Basu, and Marko Scholze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 397–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-397-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-397-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we test new implementations of our inverse modeling tool to estimate the weekly and regional CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in Europe. We use synthetic atmospheric observations of CO2 and radiocarbon (14CO2) to trace emissions to their sources, while separating the natural and fossil CO2. Our tool accurately estimates fossil CO2 emissions in densely monitored regions like western/central Europe. This approach aids in developing strategies for reducing CO2 emissions.
David D. Parrish, Ian C. Faloona, and Richard G. Derwent
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 263–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-263-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-263-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Observation-based estimates of contributions to maximum ozone (O3) concentrations show that background O3 can exceed the air quality standard of 70 ppb in the southwestern US, precluding standard attainment. Over the past 4 decades, US anthropogenic O3 has decreased by a factor of ~ 6.3, while wildfire contributions have increased, so that the background now dominates maximum concentrations, even in Los Angeles, and the occurrence of maximum O3 has shifted from the eastern to the western US.
William P. L. Carter, Jia Jiang, John J. Orlando, and Kelley C. Barsanti
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 199–242, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-199-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-199-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the scientific basis for gas-phase atmospheric chemical mechanisms derived using the SAPRC mechanism generation system, MechGen. It can derive mechanisms for most organic compounds with C, H, O, or N atoms, including initial reactions of organics with OH, O3, NO3, and O3P or by photolysis, as well as the reactions of the various types of intermediates that are formed. The paper includes a description of areas of uncertainty where additional research and updates are needed.
Cited articles
Akimoto, H.: Global air quality and pollution, Science, 302, 1716–1719, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1092666, 2003.
Barth, M. C., Rasch, P. J., Kiehl, J. T., Benkovitz, C. M., and Schwartz, S. E.: Sulfur chemistry in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model: Description, evaluation, features, and sensitivity to aqueous chemistry, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 1387–1415, 2000.
Bauer, S. E., Koch, D., Unger, N., Metzger, S. M., Shindell, D. T., and Streets, D. G.: Nitrate aerosols today and in 2030: a global simulation including aerosols and tropospheric ozone, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 5043–5059, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-5043-2007, 2007.
Berntsen, T. K., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Joshi, M. M., Shine, K. P., Stuber, N., Ponater, M., Sausen, R., Hauglustaine, D. A., and Li, L.: Response of climate to regional emissions of ozone precursors: sensitivities and warming potentials, Tellus, 57B, 283–304, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2005.00152.x, 2005.
Chung, S. and Seinfeld, J.: Global distribution and climate forcing of carbonaceous aerosols, J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD001397, 2002.
Cionni, I., Eyring, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Randel, W. J., Stevenson, D. S., Wu, F., Bodeker, G. E., Shepherd, T. G., Shindell, D. T., and Waugh, D. W.: Ozone database in support of CMIP5 simulations: results and corresponding radiative forcing, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 11267–11292, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-11267-2011, 2011.
Collins, W. J., Derwent, R. G., Johnson, C. E., and Stevenson, D. S.: The oxidation of organic compounds in the troposphere and their global warming potentials, Climatic Change, 52, 453–479, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1014221225434, 2002.
Collins, W. J., Fry, M. M., Yu, H., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Shindell, D. T., and West, J. J.: Global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2471–2485, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2471-2013, 2013.
Daniel, J. S. and Solomon, S.: On the climate forcing of carbon monoxide, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 13249–13260, https://doi.org/10.1029/98JD00822, 1998.
Derwent, R. G., Collins, W. J., Johnson, C. E., and Stevenson, D. S.: Transient behaviour of tropospheric ozone precursors in a global 3-D CTM and their indirect greenhouse effects, Climatic Change, 49, 463–487, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010648913655, 2001.
Duncan, B. N., Logan, J. A., Bey, I., Megretskaia, I. A., Yantosca, R. M., Novelli, P. C., Jones, N. B., and Rinsland, C. P.: The global budget of CO, 1988–1997: Source estimates and validation with a global model, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D22301, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008459, 2007.
Emmons, L. K., Walters, S., Hess, P. G., Lamarque, J.-F., Pfister, G. G., Fillmore, D., Granier, C., Guenther, A., Kinnison, D., Laepple, T., Orlando, J., Tie, X., Tyndall, G., Wiedinmyer, C., Baughcum, S. L., and Kloster, S.: Description and evaluation of the Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4), Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 43–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-43-2010, 2010.
Fiore, A. M., Jacob, D. J., Field, B. D., Streets, D. G., Fernandes, S. D., and Jang, C.: Linking ozone pollution and climate change: The case for controlling methane, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1919, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015601, 2002.
Fiore, A. M., West, J. J., Horowitz, L. W., Naik, V., and Schwarzkopf, M. D.: Characterizing the tropospheric ozone response to methane emission controls and the benefits to climate and air quality, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D08307, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009162, 2008.
Fiore, A. M., Dentener, F. J., Wild, O., Cuvelier, C., Schultz, M. G., Hess, P., Textor, C., Schulz, M., Doherty, R. M., Horowitz, L. W., MacKenzie, I. A., Sanderson, M. G., Shindell, D. T., Stevenson, D. S., Szopa, S., Van Dingenen, R., Zeng, G., Atherton, C., Bergmann, D., Bey, I., Carmichael, G., Collins, W. J., Duncan, B. N., Faluvegi, G., Folberth, G., Gauss, M., Gong, S., Hauglustaine, D., Holloway, T., Isaksen, I. S. A., Jacob, D. J., Jonson, J. E., Kaminski, J. W., Keating, T. J., Lupu, A., Marmer, E., Montanaro, V., Park, R. J., Pitari, G., Pringle, K. J., Pyle, J. A., Schroeder, S., Vivanco, M. G., Wind, P., Wojcik, G., Wu, S., and Zuber, A.: Multimodel estimates of intercontinental source-receptor relationships for ozone pollution, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D04301, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010816, 2009.
Forster, P., Ramaswamy, V., Artaxo, P., Berntsen, T., Betts, R., Fahey, D. W., Haywood, J., Lean, J., Lowe, D. C., Myhre, G., Nganga, J., Prinn, R., Raga, G., Schulz, M., and Van Dorland, R.: Changes in atmospheric constituents and in radiative forcing, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, 129–234, 2007.
Forster, P. M. D. and Shine, K. P.: Radiative forcing and temperature trends from stratospheric ozone changes, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 10481–10857, https://doi.org/10.1029/96JD03510, 1997.
Fry, M. M., Naik, V., West, J. J., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Fiore, A. M., Collins, W. J., Dentener, F. J., Shindell, D. T., Atherton, C., Bergmann, D., Duncan, B. N., Hess, P., MacKenzie, I. A., Marmer, E., Schultz, M. G., Szopa, S., Wild, O., and Zeng, G.: The influence of ozone precursor emissions from four world regions on tropospheric composition and radiative climate forcing, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D07306, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017134, 2012.
Fuglestvedt, J. S., Isaksen, I. S. A., and Wang, W.-C.: Estimates of indirect global warming potentials for CH4, CO, and NOx. Clim. Change, 34, 405–437, 1996.
Fuglestvedt, J. S., Berntsen, T. K., Isaksen, I. S. A., Mao, H. T., Liang, X. Z., and Wang, W. C.: Climatic forcing of nitrogen oxides through changes in tropospheric ozone and methane; global 3D model studies, Atmos. Environ., 33, 961–977, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(98)00217-9, 1999.
GFDL Global Atmospheric Model Development Team (GAMDT): The new GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM2-LM2: Evaluation with prescribed SST simulations, J. Clim., 17, 4641–4673, 2004.
Granier, C., Guenther, A., Lamarque, J., Mieville, A., Muller, J., Olivier, J., Orlando, J., Peters, J., Petron, G., Tyndall, G., and Wallens, S.: POET, a database of surface emissions of ozone precursors, available at: http://accent.aero.jussieu.fr/POET_metadata.php, 2005.
Guenther, A., Karl, T., Harley, P., Wiedinmyer, C., Palmer, P. I., and Geron, C.: Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 3181-3210, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-3181-2006, 2006.
Heald, C. L., Jacob, D. J., Fiore, A. M., Emmons, L. K., Gille, J. C., Deeter, M. N., Warner, J., Edwards, D. P., Crawford, J. H., Hamlin, A. J., Sachse, G. W., Browell, E. V., Avery, M. A., Vay, S. A., Westberg, D. J., Blake, D. R., Singh, H. B., Sandholm, S. T., Talbot, R. W., and Fuelberg, H. E.: Asian outflow and trans-Pacific transport of carbon monoxide and ozone pollution: An integrated satellite, aircraft and model perspective, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4804, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003507, 2003.
Heald, C. L., Jacob, D. J., Jones, D. B. A., Palmer, P. I., Logan, J. A., Streets, D. G., Sachse, G. W., Gille, J. C., Hoffman, R. N., and Nehrkorn, T.: Comparative inverse analysis of satellite (MOPITT) and aircraft (TRACE-P) observations to estimate Asian sources of carbon monoxide, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D15S04, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005185, 2004.
Horowitz, L. W., Fiore, A. M., Milly, G. P., Cohen, R. C., Perring, A., Wooldridge, P. J., Hess, P. G., Emmons, L. K., and Lamarque, J.-F.: Observational constraints on the chemistry of isoprene nitrates over the eastern United States, J. Geophys. Res, 112, D12S08, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007747, 2007.
Hoyle, C. R., Myhre, G., Berntsen, T. K., and Isaksen, I. S. A.: Anthropogenic influence on SOA and the resulting radiative forcing, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 2715–2728, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-2715-2009, 2009.
Hudman, R. C., Moore, N. E., Mebust, A. K., Martin, R. V., Russell, A. R., Valin, L. C., and Cohen, R. C.: Steps towards a mechanistic model of global soil nitric oxide emissions: implementation and space based-constraints, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 7779–7795, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-7779-2012, 2012.
Jackson, S. C.: Parallel Pursuit of Near-term and Long-term Climate Mitigation, Science, 326, 526–527, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1177042, 2009.
Jacob, D. J.: Introduction to Atmospheric Chemistry, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, USA, 52–53, 1999.
Johnson, C. E. and Derwent, R. G.: Relative radiative forcing consequences of global emissions of hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and NOx from human activities estimated with a zonally-averaged two-dimensional model. Clim. Change, 34, 439–462, 1996.
Kopacz, M., Jacob, D. J., Henze, D. K., Heald, C. L., Streets, D. G., and Zhang, Q.: Comparison of adjoint and analytical Bayesian inversion methods for constraining Asian sources of carbon monoxide using satellite (MOPITT) measurements of CO columns, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D04305, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009264, 2009.
Kopacz, M., Jacob, D. J., Fisher, J. A., Logan, J. A., Zhang, L., Megretskaia, I. A., Yantosca, R. M., Singh, K., Henze, D. K., Burrows, J. P., Buchwitz, M., Khlystova, I., McMillan, W. W., Gille, J. C., Edwards, D. P., Eldering, A., Thouret, V., and Nedelec, P.: Global estimates of CO sources with high resolution by adjoint inversion of multiple satellite datasets (MOPITT, AIRS, SCIAMACHY, TES), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 855–876, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-855-2010, 2010.
Lacis, A. A., Wuebbles, D. J., and Logan, J. A.: Radiative forcing of climate by changes in the vertical distribution of ozone, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 9971–9981, https://doi.org/10.1029/JD095iD07p09971, 1990.
Lamarque, J.-F., Kiehl, J. T., Hess, P. G., Collins, W. D., Emmons, L. K., Ginoux, P., Luo, C., and Tie, X. X.: Response of a coupled chemistry-climate model to changes in aerosol emissions: Global impact on the hydrological cycle and the tropospheric burdens of OH, ozone, and NOx, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L16809, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023419, 2005.
Lapina, K., Honrath, R. E., Owen, R. C., Martin, M. V., and Pfister, G.: Evidence of significant large-scale impacts of boreal fires on ozone levels in the midlatitude Northern Hemisphere free troposphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L10815, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025878, 2006.
Lawrence, M. G.: Photochemistry in the tropical pacific troposphere: Studies with a global 3D chemistry-meteorology model, Ph.D. thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, Georgia, USA, 1996.
Lawrence, M. G., Crutzen, P. J., Rasch, P. J., Eaton, B. E., and Mahowald, N. M.: A model for studies of tropospheric photochemistry: Description, global distributions, and evaluation, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 26245–26277, 1999.
Lawrence, M. G., von Kuhlmann, R., Salzmann, M., and Rasch, P. J.: The balance of effects of deep convective mixing on tropospheric ozone, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1940, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017644, 2003.
Leibensperger, E. M., Mickley, L. J., Jacob, D. J., and Barrett, S. R. H.: Intercontinental influence of NOx and CO emissions on particulate matter air quality, Atmos. Environ., 45, 3318–3324, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.02.023, 2011.
Meinshausen, M., Smith, S. J., Calvin, K. V., Daniel, J. S., Kainuma, M. L. T., Lamarque, J.-F., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S. A., Raper, S. C. B., Riahi, K., Thomson, A. M., Velders, G. J. M., and van Vuuren, D.: The RCP Greenhouse Gas Concentrations and their Extension from 1765 to 2300, Climatic Change (Special Issue), 109, 213–241, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z, 2011.
Metzger, S., Dentener, F., Pandis, S., and Lelieveld, J.: Gas/aerosol partitioning: 1. A computationally efficient model, J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4312, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD001102, 2002.
Naik, V., Mauzerall, D., Horowitz, L., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Ramaswamy, V., and Oppenheimer, M.: Net radiative forcing due to changes in regional emissions of tropospheric ozone precursors, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D24306, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD005908, 2005.
Naik, V., Mauzerall, D. L., Horowitz, L. W., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Ramaswamy, V., and Oppenheimer, M.: On the sensitivity of radiative forcing from biomass burning aerosols and ozone to emission location, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L03818, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028149, 2007.
Olivier, J., Peters, J., Granier, C., Petron, G., Muller, J., and Wallens, S.: Present and future surface emissions of atmospheric compounds, POET report {#}2, EU project EVK2-1999-00011, available at: http://accent.aero.jussieu.fr/POET_metadata.php, 2003.
Pétron, G., Granier, C., Khattatov, B., Yudin, V., Lamarque, J., Emmons, L., Gille, J., and Edwards, D. P.: Monthly CO surface sources inventory based on the 2000–2001 MOPITT satellite data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L21107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020560, 2004.
Pfister, G., Pétron, G., Emmons, L. K., Gille, J. C., Edwards, D. P., Lamarque, J.-F., Attié, J.-L., Granier, C., and Novelli, P. C.: Evaluation of CO simulations and the analysis of the CO budget for Europe, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D19304, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD004691, 2004.
Pfister, G., Hess, P., Emmons, L., Lamarque, J.-F., Wiedinmeyer, C., Edwards, D., Pétron, G., Gille, J., and Sachse, G.: Quantifying CO emissions from the 2004 Alaskan wildfires using MOPITT CO data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L11809, https://doi.org/10.29/2005GL022995, 2005.
Pfister, G. G., Emmons, L. K., Hess, P. G., Honrath, R., Lamarque, J.-F., Val Martin, M., Owen, R. C., Avery, M. A., Browell, E. V., Holloway, J. S., Nedelec, P., Purvis, R., Ryerson, T. B., Sachse, G. W., and Schlager, H.: Ozone production from the 2004 North American boreal fires, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D24S07, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007695, 2006.
Pfister, G. G., Emmons, L. K., Hess, P. G., Lamarque, J.-F., Orlando, J. J., Walters, S., Guenther, A., Palmer, P. I., and Lawrence, P. J.: Contribution of isoprene to chemical budgets: A model tracer study with the NCAR CTM MOZART-4, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D05308, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008948, 2008.
Pham, M., Muller, J. F., Brasseur, G. P., Granier, C. and Megie, G.: A three-dimensional study of the tropospheric sulfur cycle, J. Geophys. Res., 100, 26061–26092, https://doi.org/10.1029/95JD02095, 1995.
Prather, M. J.: Time scales in atmospheric chemistry: Theory, GWPs for CH4 and CO, and runaway growth, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 2597–2600, https://doi.org/10.1029/96GL02371, 1996.
Prather, M., Ehhalt, D., Dentener, F., Derwent, R. G., Dlugokencky, E., Holland, E., Isaksen, I. S. A., Katima, J., Kirchhoff, V., Matson, P., Midgley, P. M., and Wang, M.: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Atmospheric Chemistry and Greenhouse Gases, Chap. 4, Cambridge Univ. Press, New York, USA, 239–287, 2001.
Prather, M. J., Holmes, C. D., and Hsu, J. J.: Reactive greenhouse gas scenarios: systematic exploration of uncertainties and the role of atmospheric chemistry, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09803, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051440, 2012.
Riahi, K., Gruebler, A., and Nakicenovic, N.: Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, 74, 7, 887–935, 2007.
Riahi, K., Rao, S., Krey, V., Cho, C., Chirkov, V., Fischer, G., Kindermann, G., Nakicenovic, N., and Rafaj, P.: RCP 8.5 – A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions, Climatic Change, 109, 33–57, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y, 2011.
Rienecker, M. M., Suarez, M. J., Todling, R., Bacmeister, J., Takacs, L., Liu, H.-C., Gu, W., Sienkiewicz, M., Koster, R. D., Gelaro, R., Stajner, I., and Nielsen, J. E.: The GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System – Documentation of versions 5.0.1, 5.1.0, and 5.2.0, NASA Tech. Memo., NASA/TM-2008-104606, 27, 118 pp., 2008.
Rypdal, K., Berntsen, T., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Aunan, K., Torvanger, A., Stordal, F., Pacyna, J. M., and Nygaard, L. P.: Tropospheric ozone and aerosols in climate agreements: scientific and political challenges, Environ. Sci. Pol., 8, 29–43, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2004.09.003, 2005.
Rypdal, K., Rive, N., Berntsen, T., Fagerli, H., Klimont, Z., Mideksa, T. K., and Fuglestvedt, J. S.: Climate and air quality-driven scenarios of ozone and aerosol precursor abatement, Environ. Sci. Pol., 12, 7, 855–869, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2009.08.002, 2009.
Saikawa, E., Naik, V., Horowitz, L. W., Liu, J. F., and Mauzerall, D. L.: Present and potential future contributions of sulfate, black and organic carbon aerosols from China to global air quality, premature mortality and radiative forcing, Atmos. Environ., 43, 2814–2822, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.02.017, 2009.
Schultz, M. G., Backman, L., Balkanski, Y., Bjoerndalsaeter, S., Brand, R., Burrows, J. P., Dalsoeren, S., de Vasconcelos, M., Grodtmann, B., Hauglustaine, D. A., Heil, A., Hoelzemann, J. J., Isaksen, I. S. A., Kaurola, J., Knorr, W., Ladstaetter-Wei{ß}enmayer, A., Mota, B., Oom, D., Pacyna, J., Panasiuk, D., Pereira, J. M. C., Pulles, T., Pyle, J., Rast, S., Richter, A., Savage, N., Schnadt, C., Schulz, M., Spessa, A., Staehelin, J., Sundet, J. K., Szopa, S., Thonicke, K., van het Bolscher, M., van Noije, T., van Velthoven, P., Vik, A. F., and Wittrock, F.: REanalysis of the TROpospheric chemical composition over the past 40 years (RETRO) – A long-term global modeling study of tropospheric chemistry, Final Report, Jülich/Hamburg, Germany, 2007.
Schumann, U. and Huntrieser, H.: The global lightning-induced nitrogen oxides source, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 3823–3907, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-3823-2007, 2007.
Schwarzkopf, M. D. and Ramaswamy, V.: Radiative effects of CH4, N2O, halocarbons and the foreign-broadened H2O continuum: A GCM experiment, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 9467–9488, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900003, 1999.
Shindell, D. and Faluvegi, G.: Climate response to regional radiative forcing during the twentieth century, Nature Geosci., 2, 294–300, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO473, 2009.
Shindell, D. T., Faluvegi, G., Bell, N., and Schmidt, G. A.: An emissions-based view of climate forcing by methane and tropospheric ozone, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L04803, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021900, 2005.
Shindell, D. T., Faluvegi, G., Stevenson, D. S., Krol, M. C., Emmons, L. K., Lamarque, J.-F., Pétron, G., Dentener, F. J., Ellingsen, K., Schultz, M. G., Wild, O., Amann, M., Atherton, C. S., Bergmann, D. J., Bey, I., Butler, T., Cofala, J., Collins, W. J., Derwent, R. G., Doherty, R. M., Drevet, J., Eskes, H. J., Fiore, A. M., Gauss, M., Hauglustaine, D. A., Horowitz, L. W., Isaksen, I. S. A., Lawrence, M. G., Montanaro, V., Müller, J.-F., Pitari, G., Prather, M. J., Pyle, J. A., Rast, S., Rodriguez, J. M., Sanderson, M. G., Savage, N. H., Strahan, S. E., Sudo, K., Szopa, S., Unger, N., van Noije, T. P. C., and Zeng, G.: Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: Comparison with observations and projected near-future changes, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D19306, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007100, 2006.
Shindell, D. T., Faluvegi, G., Koch, D. M., Schmidt, G. A., Unger, N., and Bauer, S. E.: Improved attribution of climate forcing to emissions, Science, 326, 716–718, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1174760, 2009.
Shindell, D., Kuylenstierna, J. C. I., Vignati, E., van Dingenen, R., Amann, M., Klimont, Z., Anenberg, S. C., Muller, N., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Raes, F., Schwartz, J., Faluvegi, G., Pozzoli, L., Kupiainen, K., Höglund-Isaksson, L., Emberson, L., Streets, D., Ramanathan, V., Hicks, K., Oanh, N. T. K., Milly, G., Williams, M., Demkine, V., and Fowler, D.: Simultaneously mitigating near-term climate change and improving human health and food security, Science, 335, 183–189, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1210026, 2012.
Søvde, O. A., Hoyle, C. R., Myhre, G., and Isaksen, I. S. A.: The HNO3 forming branch of the HO2 + NO reaction: pre-industrial-to-present trends in atmospheric species and radiative forcings, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 8929–8943, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-8929-2011, 2011.
Spivakovsky, C. M., Logan, J. A., Montzka, S. A., Balkanski, Y. J., Foreman-Fowler, M., Jones, D. B. A., Horowitz, L. W., Fusco, A. C., Brenninkmeijer, C. A. M., Prather, M. J., Wofsy, S. C., and McElroy, M. B.: Three-dimensional climatological distribution of tropospheric OH: Update and evaluation, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 8931–8980, 2000.
Stevenson, D. S., Dentener, F. J., Schultz, M. G., Ellingsen, K., van Noije, T. P. C., Wild, O., Zeng, G., Amann, M., Atherton, C. S., Bell, N., Bergmann, D. J., Bey, I., Butler, T., Cofala, J., Collins, W. J., Derwent, R. G., Doherty, R. M., Drevet, J., Eskes, H. J., Fiore, A. M., Gauss, M., Hauglustaine, D. A., Horowitz, L. W., Isaksen, I. S. A., Krol, M. C., Lamarque, J.-F., Lawrence, M. G., Montanaro, V., Müller, J.-F., Pitari, G., Prather, M. J., Pyle, J. A., Rast, S., Rodriguez, J. M., Sanderson, M. G., Savage, N. H., Shindell, D. T., Strahan, S. E., Sudo, K., and Szopa, S.: Multimodel ensemble simulations of present-day and near-future tropospheric ozone, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D08301, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006338, 2006.
Stevenson, D. S., Young, P. J., Naik, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Shindell, D. T., Voulgarakis, A., Skeie, R. B., Dalsoren, S. B., Myhre, G., Berntsen, T. K., Folberth, G. A., Rumbold, S. T., Collins, W. J., MacKenzie, I. A., Doherty, R. M., Zeng, G., van Noije, T. P. C., Strunk, A., Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P., Plummer, D. A., Strode, S. A., Horowitz, L., Lee, Y. H., Szopa, S., Sudo, K., Nagashima, T., Josse, B., Cionni, I., Righi, M., Eyring, V., Conley, A., Bowman, K. W., Wild, O., and Archibald, A.: Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3063–3085, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, 2013.
Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP): Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva, Switzerland, 2010.
Tilmes, S., Lamarque, J.-F., Emmons, L. K., Conley, A., Schultz, M. G., Saunois, M., Thouret, V., Thompson, A. M., Oltmans, S. J., Johnson, B., and Tarasick, D.: Technical Note: Ozonesonde climatology between 1995 and 2011: description, evaluation and applications, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 7475–7497, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-7475-2012, 2012.
Unger, N., Shindell, D. T., Koch, D. M., and Streets, D. G.: Cross influences of ozone and sulfate precursor emissions changes on air quality and climate, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 103, 12, 4377–4380, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0508769103, 2006.
von Kuhlmann, R.: Photochemistry of tropospheric ozone, its precursors and the hydroxyl radical: A 3D-modeling study considering non-methane hydrocarbons, Ph.D. thesis, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Mainz, Germany, 2001.
Voulgarakis, A., Naik, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Shindell, D. T., Young, P. J., Prather, M. J., Wild, O., Field, R. D., Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P., Cionni, I., Collins, W. J., Dalsøren, S. B., Doherty, R. M., Eyring, V., Faluvegi, G., Folberth, G. A., Horowitz, L. W., Josse, B., MacKenzie, I. A., Nagashima, T., Plummer, D. A., Righi, M., Rumbold, S. T., Stevenson, D. S., Strode, S. A., Sudo, K., Szopa, S., and Zeng, G.: Analysis of present day and future OH and methane lifetime in the ACCMIP simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, 2013.
Wang, W. C., Zhuang, Y. C., and Bojkov, R. D.: Climatic implications of observed changes in ozone vertical distribution in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 20, 1567–1570, https://doi.org/10.1029/93GL01318, 1993.
West, J. J., Fiore, A. M., Naik, V., Horowitz, L. W., Schwarzkopf, M. D., and Mauzerall, D. L.: Ozone air quality and radiative forcing consequences of changes in ozone precursor emissions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06806, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL029173, 2007.
West, J. J., Naik, V., Horowitz, L. W., and Fiore, A. M.: Effect of regional precursor emission controls on long-range ozone transport – Part 1: Short-term changes in ozone air quality, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 6077–6093, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-6077-2009, 2009a.
West, J. J., Naik, V., Horowitz, L. W., and Fiore, A. M.: Effect of regional precursor emission controls on long-range ozone transport – Part 2: Steady-state changes in ozone air quality and impacts on human mortality, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 6095–6107, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-6095-2009, 2009b.
Wild, O., Prather, M. J., and Akimoto, H.: Indirect long-term global radiative cooling from NOx emissions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1719–1722, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012573, 2001.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO): WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin: The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere using Global Observations through 2005, Bulletin No. 1, March 2006, 2006.
Download
The requested paper has a corresponding corrigendum published. Please read the corrigendum first before downloading the article.
- Article
(4556 KB) - Metadata XML
- Corrigendum
-
Supplement
(8627 KB) - BibTeX
- EndNote
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint