Articles | Volume 25, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17253-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17253-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Dec 2025
Research article |
| 01 Dec 2025
| 01 Dec 2025
Predicting ice supersaturation for contrail avoidance: ensemble forecasting using ICON with two-moment ice microphysics
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Frankfurter Straße 135, 63067 Offenbach am Main, Germany
Carmen G. Köhler
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Frankfurter Straße 135, 63067 Offenbach am Main, Germany
Axel Seifert
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Frankfurter Straße 135, 63067 Offenbach am Main, Germany
Linda Schlemmer
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Frankfurter Straße 135, 63067 Offenbach am Main, Germany
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Ulrich Schumann and Axel Seifert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4512, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4512, 2025
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Contrails caused by aircraft flying in sufficiently cold and humid air masses, have a weather and a climate impact. For reduction of the climate impact one should avoid flights forming warming contrails. This requires good weather forecast of contrail formation conditions. We present a two-way coupling of the Contrail Cirrus Prediction model (CoCiP) with the global non-hydrostatic icosahedral numerical weather model ICON. We find that contrails are predictable – but only for a finite period.
Gholam Ali Hoshyaripour, Andreas Baer, Sascha Bierbauer, Julia Bruckert, Dominik Brunner, Jochen Foerstner, Arash Hamzehloo, Valentin Hanft, Corina Keller, Martina Klose, Pankaj Kumar, Patrick Ludwig, Enrico Metzner, Lisa Muth, Andreas Pauling, Nikolas Porz, Thomas Reddmann, Luca Reißig, Roland Ruhnke, Khompat Satitkovitchai, Axel Seifert, Miriam Sinnhuber, Michael Steiner, Stefan Versick, Heike Vogel, Michael Weimer, Sven Werchner, and Corinna Hoose
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3400, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3400, 2025
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This paper presents recent advances in ICON-ART, a modeling system that simulates atmospheric composition—such as gases and particles—and their interactions with weather and climate. By integrating updated chemistry, emissions, and aerosol processes, ICON-ART enables detailed, scale-spanning simulations. It supports both scientific research and operational forecasts, contributing to improved air quality and climate predictions.
Tim Lüttmer, Peter Spichtinger, and Axel Seifert
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4505–4529, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4505-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4505-2025, 2025
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We investigate ice formation pathways in idealized convective clouds using a novel microphysics scheme that distinguishes between five ice classes each with their own unique formation mechanism. Ice crystals from rime splintering form the lowermost layer of ice crystals around the updraft core. The majority of ice crystals in the anvil of the convective cloud stems from frozen droplets. Ice stemming from homogeneous and deposition nucleation was only relevant in the overshoot.
Stefano Ubbiali, Christian Kühnlein, Christoph Schär, Linda Schlemmer, Thomas C. Schulthess, Michael Staneker, and Heini Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 529–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, 2025
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We explore a high-level programming model for porting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model codes to graphics processing units (GPUs). We present a Python rewrite with the domain-specific library GT4Py (GridTools for Python) of two renowned cloud microphysics schemes and the associated tangent-linear and adjoint algorithms. We find excellent portability, competitive GPU performance, robust execution on diverse computing architectures, and enhanced code maintainability and user productivity.
Axel Seifert, Vanessa Bachmann, Florian Filipitsch, Jochen Förstner, Christian M. Grams, Gholam Ali Hoshyaripour, Julian Quinting, Anika Rohde, Heike Vogel, Annette Wagner, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6409–6430, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6409-2023, 2023
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We investigate how mineral dust can lead to the formation of cirrus clouds. Dusty cirrus clouds lead to a reduction in solar radiation at the surface and, hence, a reduced photovoltaic power generation. Current weather prediction systems are not able to predict this interaction between mineral dust and cirrus clouds. We have developed a new physical description of the formation of dusty cirrus clouds. Overall we can show a considerable improvement in the forecast quality of clouds and radiation.
Noviana Dewani, Mirjana Sakradzija, Linda Schlemmer, Ronny Leinweber, and Juerg Schmidli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4045–4058, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4045-2023, 2023
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A high daily variability of the normalized vertical velocity variance profiles in the convective boundary layer is observed using Doppler lidar data during the FESSTVaL campaign 2020–2021. The dependency of the normalized vertical velocity variance on several meteorological parameters explains that the moisture processes in the boundary layer contribute to the remaining variability. The finding suggests that a new vertical velocity scale that takes moist processes into account has to be defined.
Markus Karrer, Axel Seifert, Davide Ori, and Stefan Kneifel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17133–17166, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17133-2021, 2021
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Modeling precipitation is of great relevance, e.g., for mitigating damage caused by extreme weather. A key component in accurate precipitation modeling is aggregation, i.e., sticking together of snowflakes. Simulating aggregation is difficult due to multiple parameters that are not well-known. Knowing how these parameters affect aggregation can help its simulation. We put new parameters in the model and select a combination of parameters with which the model can simulate observations better.
Daniel Regenass, Linda Schlemmer, Elena Jahr, and Christoph Schär
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-426, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-426, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Weather and climate models need to represent the water cycle on land in order to provide accurate estimates of moisture and energy exchange between the land and the atmosphere. Infiltration of water into the soil is often modeled with an equation describing water transport in porous media. Here, we point out some challenges arising in the numerical solution of this equation and show the consequences for the representation of the water cycle in modern weather and climate models.
Harald Rybka, Ulrike Burkhardt, Martin Köhler, Ioanna Arka, Luca Bugliaro, Ulrich Görsdorf, Ákos Horváth, Catrin I. Meyer, Jens Reichardt, Axel Seifert, and Johan Strandgren
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4285–4318, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4285-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4285-2021, 2021
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Estimating the impact of convection on the upper-tropospheric water budget remains a problem for models employing resolutions of several kilometers or more. A sub-kilometer high-resolution model is used to study summertime convection. The results suggest mostly close agreement with ground- and satellite-based observational data while slightly overestimating total frozen water path and anvil lifetime. The simulations are well suited to supplying information for parameterization development.
Yuefei Zeng, Alberto de Lozar, Tijana Janjic, and Axel Seifert
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1295–1307, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1295-2021, 2021
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A new integrated mass-flux adjustment filter is introduced and examined with an idealized setup for convective-scale radar data assimilation. It is found that the new filter slightly reduces the accuracy of background and analysis states; however, it preserves the main structure of cold pools and primary mesocyclone properties of supercells. More importantly, it successfully diminishes the imbalance in the analysis considerably and improves the forecasts.
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Short summary
Persistent condensation trails typically occur due to aircraft flying through certain cold and humid regions. In most cases, these contrails have a warming impact on the climate. Predicting these regions in advance allows flight planners to re-route airplanes. We show that an adaptation of the ice microphysics scheme in a certain weather forecast model improves the prediction of these regions. Running an ensemble of simulations with this scheme improves the prediction quality even further.
Persistent condensation trails typically occur due to aircraft flying through certain cold and...
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