Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
ACP
Articles | Volume 25, issue 23
Articles | Volume 25, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17253-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17253-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 23
Research article
 | 
01 Dec 2025
Research article |  | 01 Dec 2025

Predicting ice supersaturation for contrail avoidance: ensemble forecasting using ICON with two-moment ice microphysics

Maleen Hanst, Carmen G. Köhler, Axel Seifert, and Linda Schlemmer

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Short summary
Persistent condensation trails typically occur due to aircraft flying through certain cold and humid regions. In most cases, these contrails have a warming impact on the climate. Predicting these regions in advance allows flight planners to re-route airplanes. We show that an adaptation of the ice microphysics scheme in a certain weather forecast model improves the prediction of these regions. Running an ensemble of simulations with this scheme improves the prediction quality even further.
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