Articles | Volume 25, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17253-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17253-2025
Research article
 | 
01 Dec 2025
Research article |  | 01 Dec 2025

Predicting ice supersaturation for contrail avoidance: ensemble forecasting using ICON with two-moment ice microphysics

Maleen Hanst, Carmen G. Köhler, Axel Seifert, and Linda Schlemmer

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AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Maleen Hanst on behalf of the Authors (27 Oct 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (28 Oct 2025) by Johannes Quaas
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (03 Nov 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (06 Nov 2025)
ED: Publish as is (06 Nov 2025) by Johannes Quaas
AR by Maleen Hanst on behalf of the Authors (09 Nov 2025)  Author's response   Manuscript 
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Short summary
Persistent condensation trails typically occur due to aircraft flying through certain cold and humid regions. In most cases, these contrails have a warming impact on the climate. Predicting these regions in advance allows flight planners to re-route airplanes. We show that an adaptation of the ice microphysics scheme in a certain weather forecast model improves the prediction of these regions. Running an ensemble of simulations with this scheme improves the prediction quality even further.
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