Articles | Volume 23, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15121-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15121-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Dec 2023
Research article |
| 07 Dec 2023
| 07 Dec 2023
Strong aerosol cooling alone does not explain cold-biased mid-century temperatures in CMIP6 models
Clare Marie Flynn
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm, Sweden
now at: Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Linnea Huusko
Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm, Sweden
Angshuman Modak
Interdisciplinary Programme in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India
Thorsten Mauritsen
Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm, Sweden
Related authors
Hao Guo, Clare M. Flynn, Michael J. Prather, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Louisa Emmons, Forrest Lacey, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Gus Correa, Lee T. Murray, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jason M. St. Clair, Michelle Kim, John Crounse, Glenn Diskin, Joshua DiGangi, Bruce C. Daube, Roisin Commane, Kathryn McKain, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Chelsea Thompson, Thomas F. Hanisco, Donald Blake, Nicola J. Blake, Eric C. Apel, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, James W. Elkins, Eric J. Hintsa, Fred L. Moore, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 99–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-99-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-99-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have prepared a unique and unusual result from the recent ATom aircraft mission: a measurement-based derivation of the production and loss rates of ozone and methane over the ocean basins. These are the key products of chemistry models used in assessments but have thus far lacked observational metrics. It also shows the scales of variability of atmospheric chemical rates and provides a major challenge to the atmospheric models.
Hao Guo, Clare M. Flynn, Michael J. Prather, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Louisa Emmons, Forrest Lacey, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Gus Correa, Lee T. Murray, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jason M. St. Clair, Michelle Kim, John Crounse, Glenn Diskin, Joshua DiGangi, Bruce C. Daube, Roisin Commane, Kathryn McKain, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Chelsea Thompson, Thomas F. Hanisco, Donald Blake, Nicola J. Blake, Eric C. Apel, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, James W. Elkins, Eric J. Hintsa, Fred L. Moore, and Steven Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13729–13746, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13729-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13729-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission built a climatology of the chemical composition of tropospheric air parcels throughout the middle of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The level of detail allows us to reconstruct the photochemical budgets of O3 and CH4 over these vast, remote regions. We find that most of the chemical heterogeneity is captured at the resolution used in current global chemistry models and that the majority of reactivity occurs in the
hottest20 % of parcels.
Martin Renoult, James Douglas Annan, Julia Catherine Hargreaves, Navjit Sagoo, Clare Flynn, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Qiong Zhang, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Clim. Past, 16, 1715–1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Interest in past climates as sources of information for the climate system has grown in recent years. In particular, studies of the warm mid-Pliocene and cold Last Glacial Maximum showed relationships between the tropical surface temperature of the Earth and its sensitivity to an abrupt doubling of atmospheric CO2. In this study, we develop a new and promising statistical method and obtain similar results as previously observed, wherein the sensitivity does not seem to exceed extreme values.
Clare Marie Flynn and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7829–7842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7829-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7829-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The range of climate sensitivity of models participating in CMIP6 has increased relative to models participating in CMIP5 due to decreases in the total feedback parameter. This is caused by increases in the shortwave all-sky and clear-sky feedbacks, particularly over the Southern Ocean. These shifts between CMIP6 and CMIP5 did not arise by chance. Both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models are found to exhibit aerosol forcing that is too strong, causing too much cooling relative to observations.
Thomas Hocking, Thorsten Mauritsen, and Linda Megner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-356, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Measurement Techniques (AMT).
Short summary
Short summary
The imbalance between the energy the Earth absorbs from the Sun and the energy the Earth emits back to space gives rise to climate change, but measuring the small imbalance is challenging. We simulate satellites in various orbits to investigate how well they sample the imbalance, and find that the best option is to combine at least two satellites that see complementary parts of the Earth and cover the daily and annual cycles. This information is useful when planning future satellite missions.
Andrea Mosso, Thomas Hocking, and Thorsten Mauritsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-618, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-618, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Clouds play a crucial role in the energy balance of the earth, as they can either warm up or cool down the area they cover depending on their height and depth. It is expected that they will alter their behaviour under climate change, which will affect the warming generated by greenhouse gases. This paper proposes a new method to estimate their overall effect by simulating a climate where clouds are transparent. Results show that, with the model used, clouds have a stabilising effect on climate.
Antoine Hermant, Linnea Huusko, and Thorsten Mauritsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.170158317.78990757/v1, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.170158317.78990757/v1, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol particles, from natural and human sources, have a cooling effect on the climate, partially offsetting global warming. They do this through direct (sunlight reflection) and indirect (cloud property alteration) mechanisms. Using a global climate model, we found that despite declining emissions, the direct effect of human-made aerosols has increased, while the indirect effect has decreased, attributed to the shift in emissions from North America and Europe to Southeast Asia.
Raphael Grodofzig, Martin Renoult, and Thorsten Mauritsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2734, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2734, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate whether the Amazon rain forest has lost substantial resilience since 1990. This assertion is based on trends in the observational record of vegetation density. We calculate the same metrics in a large number of climate model simulations and find that several models behave indistinguishably from the observations. This suggests that the observed trend could be caused by internal variability and that the cause of the ongoing rapid loss of Amazon rain forest is due to local actors.
James Douglas Annan, Julia Catherine Hargreaves, Thorsten Mauritsen, Erin McClymont, and Sze Ling Ho
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1941, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have created a new global surface temperature reconstruction of the climate of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, representing the period roughly 3.2 million years before the present day. We estimate that the globally averaged mean temperature was around 3.6 °C warmer than it was in pre-industrial times, but there is significant uncertainty on this value.
Sushant Das, Frida Bender, and Thorsten Mauritsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1605, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Quantifying global and Indian precipitation responses to anthropogenic aerosol and CO2 forcings using multiple models is needed for reducing climate uncertainty. The response to global warming from CO2 increases precipitation both globally and over India, whereas the cooling response to sulfate aerosol leads to a reduction in precipitation in both cases. An opposite response to black carbon is noted i.e., a global decrease but an increase of precipitation over India implying changes in dynamics.
Angshuman Modak and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7535–7549, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an improved estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) constrained based on the instrumental temperature record including the corrections for the pattern effect. The improved estimate factors in the uncertainty caused by the underlying sea-surface temperature datasets used in the estimates of pattern effect. This together with the inter-model spread lifts the corresponding IPCC AR6 estimate to 3.2 K [1.8 to 11.0], which is lower and better constrained than in past studies.
Martin Renoult, Navjit Sagoo, Jiang Zhu, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Clim. Past, 19, 323–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-323-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-323-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The relationship between the Last Glacial Maximum and the sensitivity of climate models to a doubling of CO2 can be used to estimate the true sensitivity of the Earth. However, this relationship has varied in successive model generations. In this study, we assess multiple processes at the Last Glacial Maximum which weaken this relationship. For example, how models respond to the presence of ice sheets is a large contributor of uncertainty.
Cathy Hohenegger, Peter Korn, Leonidas Linardakis, René Redler, Reiner Schnur, Panagiotis Adamidis, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Milad Behravesh, Martin Bergemann, Joachim Biercamp, Hendryk Bockelmann, Renate Brokopf, Nils Brüggemann, Lucas Casaroli, Fatemeh Chegini, George Datseris, Monika Esch, Geet George, Marco Giorgetta, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Moritz Hanke, Tatiana Ilyina, Thomas Jahns, Johann Jungclaus, Marcel Kern, Daniel Klocke, Lukas Kluft, Tobias Kölling, Luis Kornblueh, Sergey Kosukhin, Clarissa Kroll, Junhong Lee, Thorsten Mauritsen, Carolin Mehlmann, Theresa Mieslinger, Ann Kristin Naumann, Laura Paccini, Angel Peinado, Divya Sri Praturi, Dian Putrasahan, Sebastian Rast, Thomas Riddick, Niklas Roeber, Hauke Schmidt, Uwe Schulzweida, Florian Schütte, Hans Segura, Radomyra Shevchenko, Vikram Singh, Mia Specht, Claudia Christine Stephan, Jin-Song von Storch, Raphaela Vogel, Christian Wengel, Marius Winkler, Florian Ziemen, Jochem Marotzke, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 779–811, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Models of the Earth system used to understand climate and predict its change typically employ a grid spacing of about 100 km. Yet, many atmospheric and oceanic processes occur on much smaller scales. In this study, we present a new model configuration designed for the simulation of the components of the Earth system and their interactions at kilometer and smaller scales, allowing an explicit representation of the main drivers of the flow of energy and matter by solving the underlying equations.
Hao Guo, Clare M. Flynn, Michael J. Prather, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Louisa Emmons, Forrest Lacey, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Gus Correa, Lee T. Murray, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jason M. St. Clair, Michelle Kim, John Crounse, Glenn Diskin, Joshua DiGangi, Bruce C. Daube, Roisin Commane, Kathryn McKain, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Chelsea Thompson, Thomas F. Hanisco, Donald Blake, Nicola J. Blake, Eric C. Apel, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, James W. Elkins, Eric J. Hintsa, Fred L. Moore, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 99–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-99-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-99-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have prepared a unique and unusual result from the recent ATom aircraft mission: a measurement-based derivation of the production and loss rates of ozone and methane over the ocean basins. These are the key products of chemistry models used in assessments but have thus far lacked observational metrics. It also shows the scales of variability of atmospheric chemical rates and provides a major challenge to the atmospheric models.
James D. Annan, Julia C. Hargreaves, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Clim. Past, 18, 1883–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1883-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1883-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We have created a new global surface temperature reconstruction of the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum, representing the period 19–23 000 years before the present day. We find that the globally averaged mean temperature was roughly 4.5 °C colder than it was in pre-industrial times, albeit there is significant uncertainty on this value.
Hao Guo, Clare M. Flynn, Michael J. Prather, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Louisa Emmons, Forrest Lacey, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Gus Correa, Lee T. Murray, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jason M. St. Clair, Michelle Kim, John Crounse, Glenn Diskin, Joshua DiGangi, Bruce C. Daube, Roisin Commane, Kathryn McKain, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Chelsea Thompson, Thomas F. Hanisco, Donald Blake, Nicola J. Blake, Eric C. Apel, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, James W. Elkins, Eric J. Hintsa, Fred L. Moore, and Steven Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13729–13746, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13729-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13729-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission built a climatology of the chemical composition of tropospheric air parcels throughout the middle of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The level of detail allows us to reconstruct the photochemical budgets of O3 and CH4 over these vast, remote regions. We find that most of the chemical heterogeneity is captured at the resolution used in current global chemistry models and that the majority of reactivity occurs in the
hottest20 % of parcels.
Jule Radtke, Thorsten Mauritsen, and Cathy Hohenegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3275–3288, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3275-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3275-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Shallow trade wind clouds are a key source of uncertainty to projections of the Earth's changing climate. We perform high-resolution simulations of trade cumulus and investigate how the representation and climate feedback of these clouds depend on the specific grid spacing. We find that the cloud feedback is positive when simulated with kilometre but near zero when simulated with hectometre grid spacing. These findings suggest that storm-resolving models may exaggerate the trade cloud feedback.
Martin Renoult, James Douglas Annan, Julia Catherine Hargreaves, Navjit Sagoo, Clare Flynn, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Qiong Zhang, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Clim. Past, 16, 1715–1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Interest in past climates as sources of information for the climate system has grown in recent years. In particular, studies of the warm mid-Pliocene and cold Last Glacial Maximum showed relationships between the tropical surface temperature of the Earth and its sensitivity to an abrupt doubling of atmospheric CO2. In this study, we develop a new and promising statistical method and obtain similar results as previously observed, wherein the sensitivity does not seem to exceed extreme values.
James D. Annan, Julia C. Hargreaves, Thorsten Mauritsen, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 709–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-709-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-709-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we explore the potential of variability for constraining the equilibrium response of the climate system to external forcing. We show that the constraint is inherently skewed, with a long tail to high sensitivity, and that while the variability may contain some useful information, it is unlikely to generate a tight constraint.
Clare Marie Flynn and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7829–7842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7829-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7829-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The range of climate sensitivity of models participating in CMIP6 has increased relative to models participating in CMIP5 due to decreases in the total feedback parameter. This is caused by increases in the shortwave all-sky and clear-sky feedbacks, particularly over the Southern Ocean. These shifts between CMIP6 and CMIP5 did not arise by chance. Both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models are found to exhibit aerosol forcing that is too strong, causing too much cooling relative to observations.
Daniel T. McCoy, Paul R. Field, Gregory S. Elsaesser, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, Brian H. Kahn, Mark D. Zelinka, Chihiro Kodama, Thorsten Mauritsen, Benoit Vanniere, Malcolm Roberts, Pier L. Vidale, David Saint-Martin, Aurore Voldoire, Rein Haarsma, Adrian Hill, Ben Shipway, and Jonathan Wilkinson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1147–1172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1147-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1147-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The largest single source of uncertainty in the climate sensitivity predicted by global climate models is how much low-altitude clouds change as the climate warms. Models predict that the amount of liquid within and the brightness of low-altitude clouds increase in the extratropics with warming. We show that increased fluxes of moisture into extratropical storms in the midlatitudes explain the majority of the observed trend and the modeled increase in liquid water within these storms.
Andrew E. Dessler, Thorsten Mauritsen, and Bjorn Stevens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5147–5155, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5147-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5147-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
One of the most important parameters in climate science is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Estimates of this quantity based on 20th-century observations suggest low values of ECS (below 2 °C). We show that these calculations may be significantly in error. Together with other recent work on this problem, it seems probable that the ECS is larger than suggested by the 20th-century observations.
Bjorn Stevens, Stephanie Fiedler, Stefan Kinne, Karsten Peters, Sebastian Rast, Jobst Müsse, Steven J. Smith, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 433–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-433-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-433-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A simple analytic description of aerosol optical properties and their main effects on clouds is developed and described. The analytic description is easy to use and easy to modify and should aid experimentation to help understand how aerosol radiative and cloud interactions effect climate and circulation. The climatology is recommended for adoption by models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.
M. Tjernström, C. Leck, C. E. Birch, J. W. Bottenheim, B. J. Brooks, I. M. Brooks, L. Bäcklin, R. Y.-W. Chang, G. de Leeuw, L. Di Liberto, S. de la Rosa, E. Granath, M. Graus, A. Hansel, J. Heintzenberg, A. Held, A. Hind, P. Johnston, J. Knulst, M. Martin, P. A. Matrai, T. Mauritsen, M. Müller, S. J. Norris, M. V. Orellana, D. A. Orsini, J. Paatero, P. O. G. Persson, Q. Gao, C. Rauschenberg, Z. Ristovski, J. Sedlar, M. D. Shupe, B. Sierau, A. Sirevaag, S. Sjogren, O. Stetzer, E. Swietlicki, M. Szczodrak, P. Vaattovaara, N. Wahlberg, M. Westberg, and C. R. Wheeler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 2823–2869, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2823-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2823-2014, 2014
M. D. Shupe, P. O. G. Persson, I. M. Brooks, M. Tjernström, J. Sedlar, T. Mauritsen, S. Sjogren, and C. Leck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9379–9399, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9379-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9379-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Climate and Earth System | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Simulation of ozone–vegetation coupling and feedback in China using multiple ozone damage schemes
Opinion: Can uncertainty in climate sensitivity be narrowed further?
Significant human health co-benefits of mitigating African emissions
Opinion: Optimizing climate models with process-knowledge, resolution, and AI
Global scenarios of anthropogenic mercury emissions
Water vapour exchange between the atmospheric boundary layer and free troposphere over eastern China: seasonal characteristics and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation anomaly
General circulation models simulate negative liquid water path–droplet number correlations, but anthropogenic aerosols still increase simulated liquid water path
Assessing methane emissions from collapsing Venezuelan oil production using TROPOMI
Future reduction of cold extremes over East Asia due to thermodynamic and dynamic warming
Air pollution reductions caused by the COVID-19 lockdown open up a way to preserve the Himalayan glaciers
Modeling atmosphere–land interactions at a rainforest site – a case study using Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO) measurements and reanalysis data
Jiachen Cao, Xu Yue, and Mingrui Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3973–3987, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3973-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We implemented two widely used ozone damage schemes into a same regional model. Although the two schemes yielded distinct ozone vegetation damages, they predicted similar feedbacks to surface air temperature and ozone air quality in China. Our results highlighted the significance of ozone pollution control given its detrimental impacts on ecosystem functions, contributions to global warming, and amplifications of ozone pollution through ozone–vegetation coupling.
Steven C. Sherwood and Chris E. Forest
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2679–2686, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2679-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2679-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The most fundamental parameter used to gauge the severity of future climate change is the so-called equilibrium climate sensitivity, which measures the warming that would ultimately occur due to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Due to recent advances it is now thought to probably lie in the range 2.5–4 °C. We discuss this and the issues involved in evaluating and using the number, pointing to some pitfalls in current efforts but also possibilities for further progress.
Christopher D. Wells, Matthew Kasoar, Majid Ezzati, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1025–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Human-driven emissions of air pollutants, mostly caused by burning fossil fuels, impact both the climate and human health. Millions of deaths each year are caused by air pollution globally, and the future trends are uncertain. Here, we use a global climate model to study the effect of African pollutant emissions on surface level air pollution, and resultant impacts on human health, in several future emission scenarios. We find much lower health impacts under cleaner, lower-emission futures.
Tapio Schneider, L. Ruby Leung, and Robert C. J. Wills
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-20, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-20, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper lays out an approach to achieve substantial progress in climate modeling, balancing increases in resolution with advances in process-based modeling and the use of AI to learn from Earth observations.
Flora Maria Brocza, Peter Rafaj, Robert Sander, Fabian Wagner, and Jenny M. Jones
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-41, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-41, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To understand how atmospheric mercury levels will change in the future, we model how our Hg releases will change following developments in human energy use, mercury use, as well as our efforts in reducing pollution and battling climate change. This study models human Hg emissions until 2050, using different narratives of future developments which influence Hg emissions, such as energy use, climate policy and sector-specific pollution reduction measures for mercury and traditional air pollutants.
Xipeng Jin, Xuhui Cai, Xuesong Wang, Qianqian Huang, Yu Song, Ling Kang, Hongsheng Zhang, and Tong Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 259–274, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-259-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-259-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents a climatology of water vapour exchange flux between the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) and free troposphere (FT) over eastern China. The water vapour exchange maintains ABL humidity in cold months and moistens the FT in warm seasons, and its distribution has terrain-dependent features. The exchange flux is correlated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index and precipitation pattern. The study provides new insight into moisture transport and extreme weather.
Johannes Mülmenstädt, Edward Gryspeerdt, Sudhakar Dipu, Johannes Quaas, Andrew S. Ackerman, Ann M. Fridlind, Florian Tornow, Susanne E. Bauer, Andrew Gettelman, Yi Ming, Youtong Zheng, Po-Lun Ma, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, Matthew W. Christensen, Adam C. Varble, L. Ruby Leung, Xiaohong Liu, David Neubauer, Daniel G. Partridge, Philip Stier, and Toshihiko Takemura
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Human activities release copious amounts of small particles, called aerosols, into the atmosphere. These particles change how much sunlight clouds reflect to space, an important human perturbation of the climate whose magnitude is highly uncertain. We found that the latest climate models show a negative correlation but a positive causal relationship between aerosols and cloud water. This means we need to be very careful when we interpret observational studies that can only see correlation.
Brian Nathan, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Stijn Naus, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, Daniel J. Varon, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Alba Lorente, Tobias Borsdorff, Robert J. Parker, and Ilse Aben
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2887, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2887, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As oil infrastructure around Lake Maracaibo in Venezuela deteriorates, significant methane leaks become likely. We perform an analysis that combines inventory estimates and TROPOMI satellite observations for 2018–2020 over Lake Maracaibo, as well as for Venezuela as a whole for 2019 using a different atmospheric model in order to provide context. Our findings may indicate significant, persistent leaks around the Lake Maracaibo region that are independent of the recent drop in oil production.
Donghuan Li, Tianjun Zhou, Youcun Qi, Liwei Zou, Chao Li, Wenxia Zhang, and Xiaolong Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2806, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2806, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Two sets of climate model simulations are used to investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic factors to future change of cold extreme in East Asia. Dynamic factor accounted for over 80% of cold-month temperature anomalies in past 50 years. The intensity of cold extreme is expected to decrease by 5℃, with thermodynamic factor contributing about 75% by the end of the 21st century. Changes in dynamic factor are driven by an upward trend of positive Arctic Oscillation-like sea level pressure pattern.
Suvarna Fadnavis, Bernd Heinold, T. P. Sabin, Anne Kubin, Katty Huang, Alexandru Rap, and Rolf Müller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10439–10449, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10439-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10439-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of the COVID-19 lockdown on the Himalayas caused increases in snow cover and a decrease in runoff, ultimately leading to an enhanced snow water equivalent. Our findings highlight that, out of the two processes causing a retreat of Himalayan glaciers – (1) slow response to global climate change and (2) fast response to local air pollution – a policy action on the latter is more likely to be within the reach of possible policy action to help billions of people in southern Asia.
Amelie U. Schmitt, Felix Ament, Alessandro C. de Araújo, Marta Sá, and Paulo Teixeira
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9323–9346, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9323-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9323-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tall vegetation in forests affects the exchange of heat and moisture between the atmosphere and the land surface. We compared measurements from the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory to results from a land surface model to identify model shortcomings. Our results suggest that soil temperatures in the model could be improved by incorporating a separate canopy layer which represents the heat storage within the forest.
Cited articles
Albrecht, B. A.: Aerosols, Cloud Microphysics, and Fractional Cloudiness, Science, 245, 1227–1230, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.245.4923.1227, 1989. a
Andrews, M. B., Ridley, J. K., Wood, R. A., Andrews, T., Blockley, E. W., Booth, B., Burke, E., Dittus, A. J., Florek, P., Gray, L. J., Haddad, S., Hardiman, S. C., Hermanson, L., Hodson, D., Hogan, E., Jones, G. S., Knight, J. R., Kuhlbrodt, T., Misios, S., Mizielinski, M. S., Ringer, M. A., Robson, J., and Sutton, R. T.: Historical Simulations With HadGEM3-GC3.1 for CMIP6, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001995, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001995, 2020. a
Andrews, T., Andrews, M. B., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Jones, G. S., Kulhbrodt, T., Manners, J., Menary, M. B., Ridley, J., Ringer, M. A., Sellar, A. A., Senior, C. A., and Tang, Y.: Forcings, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 4377–4394, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001866, 2019. a
Bellouin, N., Quaas, J., Gryspeerdt, E., Kinne, S., Stier, P., Watson-Parris, D., Boucher, O., Carslaw, K. S., Christensen, M., Daniau, A.-L., Dufresne, J.-L., Feingold, G., Fiedler, S., Forster, P., Gettelman, A., Haywood, J. M., Lohmann, U., Malavelle, F., Mauritsen, T., McCoy, D. T., Myhre, G., Mülmenstädt, J., Neubauer, D., Possner, A., Rugenstein, M., Sato, Y., Schulz, M., Schwartz, S. E., Sourdeval, O., Storelvmo, T., Toll, V., Winker, D., and Stevens, B.: Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2019RG000660, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000660, 2020. a
Bodas-Salcedo, A., Mulcahy, J. P., Andrews, T., Williams, K. D., Ringer, M. A., Field, P. R., and Elsaesser, G. S.: Strong Dependence of Atmospheric Feedbacks on Mixed-Phase Microphysics and Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in HadGEM3, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 1735–1758, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001688, 2019. a
Booth, B. B. B., Harris, G. R., Jones, A., Wilcox, L., Hawcroft, M., and Carslaw, K. S.: Comments on “Rethinking the Lower Bound on Aerosol Radiative Forcing”, J. Climate, 31, 9407–9412, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0369.1, 2018. a, b, c
Cowtan, K. and Way, R. G.: Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 140, 1935–1944, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2297, 2014. a
Dittus, A. J., Hawkins, E., Wilcox, L. J., Sutton, R. T., Smith, C. J., Andrews, M. B., and Forster, P. M.: Sensitivity of Historical Climate Simulations to Uncertain Aerosol Forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085806, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085806, 2020. a
Fiedler, S., Stevens, B., and Mauritsen, T.: On the sensitivity of anthropogenic aerosol forcing to model-internal variability and parameterizing a Twomey effect, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 9, 1325–1341, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS000932, 2017. a
Flynn, C. M. and Mauritsen, T.: On the climate sensitivity and historical warming evolution in recent coupled model ensembles, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7829–7842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7829-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d
Forster, P., Storelvmo, T., Armour, K., W. Collins, J.-L. D., Frame, D., Lunt, D., Mauritsen, T., Palmer, M., Watanabe, M., Wild, M., and Zhang, H.: The Earth's Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks and Climate Sensitivity, Cambridge University Press, 923–1054, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.009, 2021. a
Forster, P. M., Andrews, T., Good, P., Gregory, J. M., Jackson, L. S., and Zelinka, M.: Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1139–1150, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50174, 2013. a
Forster, P. M., Richardson, T., Maycock, A. C., Smith, C. J., Samset, B. H., Myhre, G., Andrews, T., Pincus, R., and Schulz, M.: Recommendations for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from climate models for CMIP6, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 12460–12475, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025320, 2016. a
Forster, P. M. F. and Taylor, K. E.: Climate Forcings and Climate Sensitivities Diagnosed from Coupled Climate Model Integrations, J. Climate, 19, 6181–6194, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3974.1, 2006. a
Fyfe, J. C., Kharin, V. V., Santer, B. D., Cole, J. N. S., and Gillett, N. P.: Significant impact of forcing uncertainty in a large ensemble of climate model simulations, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e2016549118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2016549118, 2021. a, b, c
Gettelman, A., Hannay, C., Bacmeister, J. T., Neale, R. B., Pendergrass, A. G., Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Fasullo, J. T., Bailey, D. A., Lawrence, D. M., and Mills, M. J.: High Climate Sensitivity in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 8329–8337, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083978, 2019. a
Gillett, N. P., Kirchmeier-Young, M., Ribes, A., Shiogama, H., Hegerl, G. C., Knutti, R., Gastineau, G., John, J. G., Li, L., Nazarenko, L., Rosenbloom, N., Seland, Ø., Wu, T., Yukimoto, S., and Ziehn, T.: Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 207–212, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00965-9, 2021. a
Golaz, J.-C., Caldwell, P. M., Van Roekel, L. P., Petersen, M. R., Tang, Q., Wolfe, J. D., Abeshu, G., Anantharaj, V., Asay-Davis, X. S., Bader, D. C., Baldwin, S. A., Bisht, G., Bogenschutz, P. A., Branstetter, M., Brunke, M. A., Brus, S. R., Burrows, S. M., Cameron-Smith, P. J., Donahue, A. S., Deakin, M., Easter, R. C., Evans, K. J., Feng, Y., Flanner, M., Foucar, J. G., Fyke, J. G., Griffin, B. M., Hannay, C., Harrop, B. E., Hoffman, M. J., Hunke, E. C., Jacob, R. L., Jacobsen, D. W., Jeffery, N., Jones, P. W., Keen, N. D., Klein, S. A., Larson, V. E., Leung, L. R., Li, H.-Y., Lin, W., Lipscomb, W. H., Ma, P.-L., Mahajan, S., Maltrud, M. E., Mametjanov, A., McClean, J. L., McCoy, R. B., Neale, R. B., Price, S. F., Qian, Y., Rasch, P. J., Reeves Eyre, J. E. J., Riley, W. J., Ringler, T. D., Roberts, A. F., Roesler, E. L., Salinger, A. G., Shaheen, Z., Shi, X., Singh, B., Tang, J., Taylor, M. A., Thornton, P. E., Turner, A. K., Veneziani, M., Wan, H., Wang, H., Wang, S., Williams, D. N., Wolfram, P. J., Worley, P. H., Xie, S., Yang, Y., Yoon, J.-H., Zelinka, M. D., Zender, C. S., Zeng, X., Zhang, C., Zhang, K., Zhang, Y., Zheng, X., Zhou, T., and Zhu, Q.: The DOE E3SM Coupled Model Version 1: Overview and Evaluation at Standard Resolution, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 2089–2129, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001603, 2019. a, b
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Ruedy, R., Nazarenko, L., Lacis, A., Schmidt, G. A., Russell, G., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bauer, S., Bell, N., Cairns, B., Canuto, V., Chandler, M., Cheng, Y., Del Genio, A., Faluvegi, G., Fleming, E., Friend, A., Hall, T., Jackman, C., Kelley, M., Kiang, N., Koch, D., Lean, J., Lerner, J., Lo, K., Menon, S., Miller, R., Minnis, P., Novakov, T., Oinas, V., Perlwitz, J., Perlwitz, J., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Shindell, D., Stone, P., Sun, S., Tausnev, N., Thresher, D., Wielicki, B., Wong, T., Yao, M., and Zhang, S.: Efficacy of climate forcings, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 110, D18104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD005776, 2005. a
Horowitz, L. W., Naik, V., Paulot, F., Ginoux, P. A., Dunne, J. P., Mao, J., Schnell, J., Chen, X., He, J., John, J. G., Lin, M., Lin, P., Malyshev, S., Paynter, D., Shevliakova, E., and Zhao, M.: The GFDL Global Atmospheric Chemistry-Climate Model AM4.1: Model Description and Simulation Characteristics, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002032, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002032, 2020. a
Huusko, L.: MPI-ESM1.2 data for Aerosol Forcing Does Not Sufficiently Explain the Suppressed Mid-20th Century Warming in CMIP6, Version 1, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8054511, 2023. a
Huusko, L., Modak, A., and Mauritsen, T.: Stronger Response to the Aerosol Indirect Effect Due To Cooling in Remote Regions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL101184, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101184, 2022. a, b
Jiménez-de-la-Cuesta, D. and Mauritsen, T.: Emergent constraints on Earth's transient and equilibrium response to doubled CO2 from post-1970s global warming, Nat. Geosci., 12, 902–905, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0463-y, 2019. a
Kiehl, J. T.: Twentieth century climate model response and climate sensitivity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L22710, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031383, 2007. a
Kretzschmar, J., Salzmann, M., Mülmenstädt, J., Boucher, O., and Quaas, J.: Comment on Rethinking the Lower Bound on Aerosol Radiative Forcing”, J. Climate, 30, 6579–6584, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0668.1, 2017. a, b, c
Maher, N., Milinski, S., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Botzet, M., Dobrynin, M., Kornblueh, L., Kröger, J., Takano, Y., Ghosh, R., Hedemann, C., Li, C., Li, H., Manzini, E., Notz, D., Putrasahan, D., Boysen, L., Claussen, M., Ilyina, T., Olonscheck, D., Raddatz, T., Stevens, B., and Marotzke, J.: The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 2050–2069, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001639, 2019. a
Mauritsen, T., Bader, J., Becker, T., Behrens, J., Bittner, M., Brokopf, R., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Fläschner, D., Gayler, V., Giorgetta, M., Goll, D. S., Haak, H., Hagemann, S., Hedemann, C., Hohenegger, C., Ilyina, T., Jahns, T., Jimenéz-de-la Cuesta, D., Jungclaus, J., Kleinen, T., Kloster, S., Kracher, D., Kinne, S., Kleberg, D., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Möbis, B., Müller, W. A., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nam, C. C. W., Notz, D., Nyawira, S.-S., Paulsen, H., Peters, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Popp, M., Raddatz, T. J., Rast, S., Redler, R., Reick, C. H., Rohrschneider, T., Schemann, V., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K. D., Stein, L., Stemmler, I., Stevens, B., von Storch, J.-S., Tian, F., Voigt, A., Vrese, P., Wieners, K.-H., Wilkenskjeld, S., Winkler, A., and Roeckner, E.: Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing CO2, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 998–1038, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001400, 2019 (code available at: https://code.mpimet.mpg.de/projects/mpi-esm-license, last access: 1 March 2020) a, b, c
Michou, M., Nabat, P., Saint-Martin, D., Bock, J., Decharme, B., Mallet, M., Roehrig, R., Séférian, R., Sénési, S., and Voldoire, A.: Present-Day and Historical Aerosol and Ozone Characteristics in CNRM CMIP6 Simulations, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001816, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001816, 2020. a
Mulcahy, J. P., Jones, C. G., Rumbold, S. T., Kuhlbrodt, T., Dittus, A. J., Blockley, E. W., Yool, A., Walton, J., Hardacre, C., Andrews, T., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Stringer, M., de Mora, L., Harris, P., Hill, R., Kelley, D., Robertson, E., and Tang, Y.: UKESM1.1: development and evaluation of an updated configuration of the UK Earth System Model, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1569–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1569-2023, 2023. a
O'Connor, F. M., Abraham, N. L., Dalvi, M., Folberth, G. A., Griffiths, P. T., Hardacre, C., Johnson, B. T., Kahana, R., Keeble, J., Kim, B., Morgenstern, O., Mulcahy, J. P., Richardson, M., Robertson, E., Seo, J., Shim, S., Teixeira, J. C., Turnock, S. T., Williams, J., Wiltshire, A. J., Woodward, S., and Zeng, G.: Assessment of pre-industrial to present-day anthropogenic climate forcing in UKESM1, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1211–1243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, 2021. a
Oshima, N., Yukimoto, S., Deushi, M., Koshiro, T., Kawai, H., Tanaka, T. Y., and Kohei, Y.: Global and Arctic effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic gases and aerosols in MRI-ESM2.0, Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 7, 38, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00348-w, 2020. a
Pincus, R., Forster, P. M., and Stevens, B.: The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): experimental protocol for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3447–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3447-2016, 2016. a, b, c
Seland, Ø., Bentsen, M., Olivié, D., Toniazzo, T., Gjermundsen, A., Graff, L. S., Debernard, J. B., Gupta, A. K., He, Y.-C., Kirkevåg, A., Schwinger, J., Tjiputra, J., Aas, K. S., Bethke, I., Fan, Y., Griesfeller, J., Grini, A., Guo, C., Ilicak, M., Karset, I. H. H., Landgren, O., Liakka, J., Moseid, K. O., Nummelin, A., Spensberger, C., Tang, H., Zhang, Z., Heinze, C., Iversen, T., and Schulz, M.: Overview of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) and key climate response of CMIP6 DECK, historical, and scenario simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6165–6200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, 2020. a
Smith, C. J. and Forster, P. M.: Suppressed Late-20th Century Warming in CMIP6 Models Explained by Forcing and Feedbacks, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL094948, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094948, 2021. a, b, c, d
Smith, C. J., Kramer, R. J., Myhre, G., Alterskjær, K., Collins, W., Sima, A., Boucher, O., Dufresne, J.-L., Nabat, P., Michou, M., Yukimoto, S., Cole, J., Paynter, D., Shiogama, H., O'Connor, F. M., Robertson, E., Wiltshire, A., Andrews, T., Hannay, C., Miller, R., Nazarenko, L., Kirkevåg, A., Olivié, D., Fiedler, S., Lewinschal, A., Mackallah, C., Dix, M., Pincus, R., and Forster, P. M.: Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9591–9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Smith, C. J., Harris, G. R., Palmer, M. D., Bellouin, N., Collins, W., Myhre, G., Schulz, M., Golaz, J.-C., Ringer, M., Storelvmo, T., and Forster, P. M.: Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD033622, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033622, 2021. a
Stevens, B., Fiedler, S., Kinne, S., Peters, K., Rast, S., Müsse, J., Smith, S. J., and Mauritsen, T.: MACv2-SP: a parameterization of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect for use in CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 433–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-433-2017, 2017. a
Twomey, S.: The Influence of Pollution on the Shortwave Albedo of Clouds, J. Atmos. Sci., 34, 1149–1152, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1977)034<1149:TIOPOT>2.0.CO;2, 1977. a
van Noije, T., Bergman, T., Le Sager, P., O'Donnell, D., Makkonen, R., Gonçalves-Ageitos, M., Döscher, R., Fladrich, U., von Hardenberg, J., Keskinen, J.-P., Korhonen, H., Laakso, A., Myriokefalitakis, S., Ollinaho, P., Pérez García-Pando, C., Reerink, T., Schrödner, R., Wyser, K., and Yang, S.: EC-Earth3-AerChem: a global climate model with interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry participating in CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5637–5668, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5637-2021, 2021. a
Voldoire, A., Saint-Martin, D., Sénési, S., Decharme, B., Alias, A., Chevallier, M., Colin, J., Guérémy, J.-F., Michou, M., Moine, M.-P., Nabat, P., Roehrig, R., Salas y Mélia, D., Séférian, R., Valcke, S., Beau, I., Belamari, S., Berthet, S., Cassou, C., Cattiaux, J., Deshayes, J., Douville, H., Ethé, C., Franchistéguy, L., Geoffroy, O., Lévy, C., Madec, G., Meurdesoif, Y., Msadek, R., Ribes, A., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Terray, L., and Waldman, R.: Evaluation of CMIP6 DECK Experiments With CNRM-CM6-1, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 2177–2213, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001683, 2019. a
Zelinka, M.: mzelinka/cmip56_forcing_feedback_ecs: Jun 15, 2022 Release, Version v2.2, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6647291, 2022. a
Zelinka, M. D., Myers, T. A., McCoy, D. T., Po-Chedley, S., Caldwell, P. M., Ceppi, P., Klein, S. A., and Taylor, K. E.: Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085782, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085782, 2020. a, b
Zhang, J., Furtado, K., Turnock, S. T., Mulcahy, J. P., Wilcox, L. J., Booth, B. B., Sexton, D., Wu, T., Zhang, F., and Liu, Q.: The role of anthropogenic aerosols in the anomalous cooling from 1960 to 1990 in the CMIP6 Earth system models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18609–18627, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18609-2021, 2021. a, b, c, d
Short summary
The latest-generation climate models show surprisingly cold mid-20th century global-mean temperatures, often despite exhibiting more realistic late 20th/early 21st century temperatures. A too-strong aerosol forcing in many models was thought to the be primary cause of these too-cold mid-century temperatures, but this was found to only be a partial explanation. This also partly undermines the hope to construct a strong relationship between the mid-century temperatures and aerosol forcing.
The latest-generation climate models show surprisingly cold mid-20th century global-mean...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint