Articles | Volume 20, issue 23
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14903–14915, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14903-2020

Special issue: The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project...

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14903–14915, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14903-2020

Research article 03 Dec 2020

Research article | 03 Dec 2020

Uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing impacts the simulated global monsoon in the 20th century

Jonathan K. P. Shonk et al.

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Cited articles

Adam, O., Bischoff, T., and Schneider, T. Seasonal and interannual variations of the energy flux equator and ITCZ. Part I: zonally averaged ITCZ position, J. Climate, 29, 3219–3230, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0512.1 2016. 
Adler, R. F., Huffman, G. J., Chang, A., Ferraro, R., Xie, P.-P., Janowiak, J., Rudolf, B., Schneider, U., Curtis, S., Bolvin, D., Gruber, A., Susskind, J., Arkin, P., and Nelkin, E.: The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979–present), J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 1147–1167, https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2, 2003. 
Allen, R. J., Evan, A. T., and Booth, B. B. B. Interhemispheric aerosol radiative forcing and tropical precipitation shifts during the late twentieth century, J. Climate, 28, 8219–8246, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0148.1, 2015. 
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We use a set of model simulations of the 20th century to demonstrate that the uncertainty in the cooling effect of man-made aerosol emissions has a wide range of impacts on global monsoons. For the weakest cooling, the impact of aerosol is overpowered by greenhouse gas (GHG) warming and monsoon rainfall increases in the late 20th century. For the strongest cooling, aerosol impact dominates over GHG warming, leading to reduced monsoon rainfall, particularly from 1950 to 1980.
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