Uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing impacts  the simulated global monsoon in the 20th century

Shonk, Jonathan K. P.; Turner, Andrew G.; Chevuturi, Amulya; Wilcox, Laura J.; Dittus, Andrea J.; Hawkins, Ed

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14903-2020

Articles | Volume 20, issue 23

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14903-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project...

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14903-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 20, issue 23

Research article

|

03 Dec 2020

Research article |

| 03 Dec 2020

Uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing impacts the simulated global monsoon in the 20th century

Jonathan K. P. Shonk, Andrew G. Turner, Amulya Chevuturi, Laura J. Wilcox, Andrea J. Dittus, and Ed Hawkins

Data sets

SMURPHS: Historical HadGEM3-GC3.1 scaled aerosol coupled ensemble A. Dittus, M. Andrews, E. Hawkins, C. Smith, and L. Wilcox https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/5808b237bdb5485d9bc3595f39ce85e3

Short summary

We use a set of model simulations of the 20th century to demonstrate that the uncertainty in the cooling effect of man-made aerosol emissions has a wide range of impacts on global monsoons. For the weakest cooling, the impact of aerosol is overpowered by greenhouse gas (GHG) warming and monsoon rainfall increases in the late 20th century. For the strongest cooling, aerosol impact dominates over GHG warming, leading to reduced monsoon rainfall, particularly from 1950 to 1980.