Articles | Volume 16, issue 24
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15789-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15789-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Dec 2016
Research article |
| 22 Dec 2016
Dynamic climate emulators for solar geoengineering
Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
Computing and Mathematical Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
Ben Kravitz
Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
Related authors
Daniele Visioni, Alan Robock, Jim Haywood, Matthew Henry, Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Sarah J. Doherty, John Moore, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Olivier Boucher, Abu Syed, Temitope S. Egbebiyi, Roland Séférian, and Ilaria Quaglia
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2583–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a new experimental protocol for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). In it, we describe the details of a new simulation of sunlight reflection using the stratospheric aerosols that climate models are supposed to run, and we explain the reasons behind each choice we made when defining the protocol.
Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 191–213, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Injecting SO2 into the lower stratosphere can temporarily reduce global mean temperature and mitigate some risks associated with climate change, but injecting it at different latitudes and seasons would have different impacts. This study introduces new stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) strategies and explores the importance of the choice of SAI strategy, demonstrating that it notably affects the distribution of aerosol cloud, injection efficiency, and various surface climate impacts.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amy H. Butler, Daniele Visioni, Yan Zhang, Ben Kravitz, and Douglas G. MacMartin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13665–13684, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use a state-of-the-art Earth system model and a set of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) strategies to achieve the same level of global mean surface cooling through different combinations of location and/or timing of the injection. We demonstrate that the choice of SAI strategy can lead to contrasting impacts on stratospheric and tropospheric temperatures, circulation, and chemistry (including stratospheric ozone), thereby leading to different impacts on regional surface climate.
Matthew Henry, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Mohit Dalvi, Alice Wells, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Walker Lee, and Mari R. Tye
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13369–13385, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Solar climate interventions, such as injecting sulfur in the stratosphere, may be used to offset some of the adverse impacts of global warming. We use two independently developed Earth system models to assess the uncertainties around stratospheric sulfur injections. The injection locations and amounts are optimized to maintain the same pattern of surface temperature. While both models show reduced warming, the change in rainfall patterns (even without sulfur injections) is uncertain.
Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Walker R. Lee, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, and Douglas G. MacMartin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 663–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper constitutes Part 1 of a study performing a first systematic inter-model comparison of the atmospheric responses to stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections (SAIs) at various latitudes as simulated by three state-of-the-art Earth system models. We identify similarities and differences in the modeled aerosol burden, investigate the differences in the aerosol approaches between the models, and ultimately show the differences produced in surface climate, temperature and precipitation.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, James M. Haywood, Jadwiga Richter, Douglas G. MacMartin, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 687–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Building on Part 1 of this two-part study, we demonstrate the role of biases in climatological circulation and specific aspects of model microphysics in driving the differences in simulated sulfate distributions amongst three Earth system models. We then characterize the simulated changes in stratospheric and free-tropospheric temperatures, ozone, water vapor, and large-scale circulation, elucidating the role of the above aspects in the surface responses discussed in Part 1.
Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, David A. Bailey, Nan Rosenbloom, Brian Dobbins, Walker R. Lee, Mari Tye, and Jean-Francois Lamarque
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8221–8243, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Solar climate intervention using stratospheric aerosol injection is a proposed method of reducing global mean temperatures to reduce the worst consequences of climate change. We present a new modeling protocol aimed at simulating a plausible deployment of stratospheric aerosol injection and reproducibility of simulations using other Earth system models: Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar climate intervention on the Earth system with stratospheric aerosol injection (ARISE-SAI).
Daniele Visioni, Simone Tilmes, Charles Bardeen, Michael Mills, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, and Jadwiga H. Richter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1739–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1739-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1739-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols are simulated in a simplified way in climate models: in the model analyzed here, they are represented in every grid as described by three simple logarithmic distributions, mixing all different species together. The size can evolve when new particles are formed, particles merge together to create a larger one or particles are deposited to the surface. This approximation normally works fairly well. Here we show however that when large amounts of sulfate are simulated, there are problems.
Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 201–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Adding SO2 to the stratosphere could temporarily cool the planet by reflecting more sunlight back to space. However, adding SO2 at different latitude(s) and season(s) leads to significant differences in regional surface climate. This study shows that, to cool the planet by 1–1.5 °C, there are likely six to eight choices of injection latitude(s) and season(s) that lead to meaningfully different distributions of climate impacts.
Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Olivier Boucher, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Michou Martine, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10039–10063, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A new set of simulations is used to investigate commonalities, differences and sources of uncertainty when simulating the injection of SO2 in the stratosphere in order to mitigate the effects of climate change (solar geoengineering). The models differ in how they simulate the aerosols and how they spread around the stratosphere, resulting in differences in projected regional impacts. Overall, however, the models agree that aerosols have the potential to mitigate the warming produced by GHGs.
Nikolas O. Aksamit, Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, and George Haller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8845–8861, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8845-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8845-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
There exist robust and influential material features evolving within turbulent fluids that behave as the skeleton for fluid transport pathways. Recent developments in applied mathematics have made the identification of these time-varying structures more rigorous and insightful than ever. Using short-range wind forecasts, we detail how and why these material features can be exploited in an effort to optimize the spread of aerosols in the stratosphere for climate geoengineering.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Alan Robock, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4231–4247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates multi-model response to idealized geoengineering (high CO2 with solar reduction) across two different generations of climate models. We find that, with the exception of a few cases, the results are unchanged between the different generations. This gives us confidence that broad conclusions about the response to idealized geoengineering are robust.
Walker Lee, Douglas MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1051–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1051-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1051-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The injection of aerosols into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight could reduce global warming, but this type of
geoengineeringwould also impact other variables like precipitation and sea ice. In this study, we model various climate impacts of geoengineering on a 3-D graph to show how trying to meet one climate goal will affect other variables. We also present two computer simulations which validate our model and show that geoengineering could regulate precipitation as well as temperature.
Yangyang Xu, Lei Lin, Simone Tilmes, Katherine Dagon, Lili Xia, Chenrui Diao, Wei Cheng, Zhili Wang, Isla Simpson, and Lorna Burnell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 673–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-673-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-673-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Two geoengineering schemes to mitigate global warming, (a) capturing atmospheric CO2 and (b) injecting stratospheric sulfur gas, are compared. Based on two sets of large-ensemble model experiments, we show that sulfur injection will effectively mitigate projected terrestrial drying over the Americas, and the mitigation benefit will emerge more quickly than with carbon capture. Innovative means of sulfur injection should continue to be explored as one potential low-cost climate solution.
Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Leo van Kampenhout, Laura Muntjewerf, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Michael J. Mills, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 579–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces new geoengineering model experiments as part of a larger model intercomparison effort, using reflective particles to block some of the incoming solar radiation to reach surface temperature targets. Outcomes of these applications are contrasted based on a high greenhouse gas emission pathway and a pathway with strong mitigation and negative emissions after 2040. We compare quantities that matter for societal and ecosystem impacts between the different scenarios.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Philip J. Rasch, and Hailong Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2525–2541, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2525-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2525-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce system identification techniques to climate science wherein multiple dynamic input–output relationships can be simultaneously characterized in a single simulation. This method, involving multiple small perturbations (in space and time) of an input field while monitoring output fields to quantify responses, allows for identification of different timescales of climate response to forcing without substantially pushing the climate far away from a steady state.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Hailong Wang, and Philip J. Rasch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 469–497, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-469-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-469-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Most simulations of solar geoengineering prescribe a particular strategy and evaluate its modeled effects. Here we first choose example climate objectives and then design a strategy to meet those objectives in climate models. We show that certain objectives can be met simultaneously even in the presence of uncertainty, and the strategy for meeting those objectives can be ported to other models. This is part of a broader illustration of how uncertainties in solar geoengineering can be managed.
Daniele Visioni, Alan Robock, Jim Haywood, Matthew Henry, Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Sarah J. Doherty, John Moore, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Olivier Boucher, Abu Syed, Temitope S. Egbebiyi, Roland Séférian, and Ilaria Quaglia
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2583–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a new experimental protocol for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). In it, we describe the details of a new simulation of sunlight reflection using the stratospheric aerosols that climate models are supposed to run, and we explain the reasons behind each choice we made when defining the protocol.
Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 191–213, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Injecting SO2 into the lower stratosphere can temporarily reduce global mean temperature and mitigate some risks associated with climate change, but injecting it at different latitudes and seasons would have different impacts. This study introduces new stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) strategies and explores the importance of the choice of SAI strategy, demonstrating that it notably affects the distribution of aerosol cloud, injection efficiency, and various surface climate impacts.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amy H. Butler, Daniele Visioni, Yan Zhang, Ben Kravitz, and Douglas G. MacMartin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13665–13684, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use a state-of-the-art Earth system model and a set of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) strategies to achieve the same level of global mean surface cooling through different combinations of location and/or timing of the injection. We demonstrate that the choice of SAI strategy can lead to contrasting impacts on stratospheric and tropospheric temperatures, circulation, and chemistry (including stratospheric ozone), thereby leading to different impacts on regional surface climate.
Matthew Henry, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Mohit Dalvi, Alice Wells, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Walker Lee, and Mari R. Tye
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13369–13385, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Solar climate interventions, such as injecting sulfur in the stratosphere, may be used to offset some of the adverse impacts of global warming. We use two independently developed Earth system models to assess the uncertainties around stratospheric sulfur injections. The injection locations and amounts are optimized to maintain the same pattern of surface temperature. While both models show reduced warming, the change in rainfall patterns (even without sulfur injections) is uncertain.
Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Alan Robock, Simone Tilmes, Jim Haywood, Olivier Boucher, Mark Lawrence, Peter Irvine, Ulrike Niemeier, Lili Xia, Gabriel Chiodo, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, John C. Moore, and Helene Muri
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5149–5176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Geoengineering indicates methods aiming to reduce the temperature of the planet by means of reflecting back a part of the incoming radiation before it reaches the surface or allowing more of the planetary radiation to escape into space. It aims to produce modelling experiments that are easy to reproduce and compare with different climate models, in order to understand the potential impacts of these techniques. Here we assess its past successes and failures and talk about its future.
Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Walker R. Lee, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, and Douglas G. MacMartin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 663–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper constitutes Part 1 of a study performing a first systematic inter-model comparison of the atmospheric responses to stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections (SAIs) at various latitudes as simulated by three state-of-the-art Earth system models. We identify similarities and differences in the modeled aerosol burden, investigate the differences in the aerosol approaches between the models, and ultimately show the differences produced in surface climate, temperature and precipitation.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, James M. Haywood, Jadwiga Richter, Douglas G. MacMartin, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 687–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Building on Part 1 of this two-part study, we demonstrate the role of biases in climatological circulation and specific aspects of model microphysics in driving the differences in simulated sulfate distributions amongst three Earth system models. We then characterize the simulated changes in stratospheric and free-tropospheric temperatures, ozone, water vapor, and large-scale circulation, elucidating the role of the above aspects in the surface responses discussed in Part 1.
Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, David A. Bailey, Nan Rosenbloom, Brian Dobbins, Walker R. Lee, Mari Tye, and Jean-Francois Lamarque
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8221–8243, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Solar climate intervention using stratospheric aerosol injection is a proposed method of reducing global mean temperatures to reduce the worst consequences of climate change. We present a new modeling protocol aimed at simulating a plausible deployment of stratospheric aerosol injection and reproducibility of simulations using other Earth system models: Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar climate intervention on the Earth system with stratospheric aerosol injection (ARISE-SAI).
Mari R. Tye, Katherine Dagon, Maria J. Molina, Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, and Simone Tilmes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1233–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1233-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examined the potential effect of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on extreme temperature and precipitation. SAI may cause daytime temperatures to cool but nighttime to warm. Daytime cooling may occur in all seasons across the globe, with the largest decreases in summer. In contrast, nighttime warming may be greatest at high latitudes in winter. SAI may reduce the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall. The combined changes may exacerbate drying over parts of the global south.
Ilaria Quaglia, Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, and Ben Kravitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5757–5773, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5757-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5757-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Carbonyl sulfide is a gas that mixes very well in the atmosphere and can reach the stratosphere, where it reacts with sunlight and produces aerosol. Here we propose that, by increasing surface fluxes by an order of magnitude, the number of stratospheric aerosols produced may be enough to partially offset the warming produced by greenhouse gases. We explore what effect this would have on the atmospheric composition.
Huiying Ren, Erol Cromwell, Ben Kravitz, and Xingyuan Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1727–1743, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1727-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1727-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We used a deep learning method called long short-term memory (LSTM) to fill gaps in data collected by hydrologic monitoring networks. LSTM accounted for correlations in space and time and nonlinear trends in data. Compared to a traditional regression-based time-series method, LSTM performed comparably when filling gaps in data with smooth patterns, while it better captured highly dynamic patterns in data. Capturing such dynamics is critical for understanding dynamic complex system behaviors.
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Adam A. Scaife, Olivier Boucher, Matthew Henry, Ben Kravitz, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2999–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations by six Earth-system models of geoengineering by introducing sulfuric acid aerosols into the tropical stratosphere are compared. A robust impact on the northern wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation is found, exacerbating precipitation reduction over parts of southern Europe. In contrast, the models show no consistency with regard to impacts on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, although results do indicate a risk that the oscillation could become locked into a permanent westerly phase.
Daniele Visioni, Simone Tilmes, Charles Bardeen, Michael Mills, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, and Jadwiga H. Richter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1739–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1739-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1739-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols are simulated in a simplified way in climate models: in the model analyzed here, they are represented in every grid as described by three simple logarithmic distributions, mixing all different species together. The size can evolve when new particles are formed, particles merge together to create a larger one or particles are deposited to the surface. This approximation normally works fairly well. Here we show however that when large amounts of sulfate are simulated, there are problems.
Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 201–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Adding SO2 to the stratosphere could temporarily cool the planet by reflecting more sunlight back to space. However, adding SO2 at different latitude(s) and season(s) leads to significant differences in regional surface climate. This study shows that, to cool the planet by 1–1.5 °C, there are likely six to eight choices of injection latitude(s) and season(s) that lead to meaningfully different distributions of climate impacts.
Dawn L. Woodard, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Ben Kravitz, Corinne Hartin, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4751–4767, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We have added a representation of the permafrost carbon feedback to the simple, open-source global carbon–climate model Hector and calibrated the results to be consistent with historical data and Earth system model projections. Our results closely match previous work, estimating around 0.2 °C of warming from permafrost this century. This capability will be useful to explore uncertainties in this feedback and for coupling with integrated assessment models for policy and economic analysis.
Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Olivier Boucher, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Michou Martine, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10039–10063, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A new set of simulations is used to investigate commonalities, differences and sources of uncertainty when simulating the injection of SO2 in the stratosphere in order to mitigate the effects of climate change (solar geoengineering). The models differ in how they simulate the aerosols and how they spread around the stratosphere, resulting in differences in projected regional impacts. Overall, however, the models agree that aerosols have the potential to mitigate the warming produced by GHGs.
Nikolas O. Aksamit, Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, and George Haller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8845–8861, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8845-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8845-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
There exist robust and influential material features evolving within turbulent fluids that behave as the skeleton for fluid transport pathways. Recent developments in applied mathematics have made the identification of these time-varying structures more rigorous and insightful than ever. Using short-range wind forecasts, we detail how and why these material features can be exploited in an effort to optimize the spread of aerosols in the stratosphere for climate geoengineering.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Alan Robock, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4231–4247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates multi-model response to idealized geoengineering (high CO2 with solar reduction) across two different generations of climate models. We find that, with the exception of a few cases, the results are unchanged between the different generations. This gives us confidence that broad conclusions about the response to idealized geoengineering are robust.
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Anthony C. Jones, Simone Tilmes, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1287–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1287-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Two different methods of simulating a geoengineering scenario are compared using data from two different Earth system models. One method is very idealised while the other includes details of a plausible mechanism. The results from both models agree that the idealised approach does not capture an impact found when detailed modelling is included, namely that geoengineering induces a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation which leads to warmer, wetter winters in northern Europe.
Walker Lee, Douglas MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1051–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1051-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1051-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The injection of aerosols into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight could reduce global warming, but this type of
geoengineeringwould also impact other variables like precipitation and sea ice. In this study, we model various climate impacts of geoengineering on a 3-D graph to show how trying to meet one climate goal will affect other variables. We also present two computer simulations which validate our model and show that geoengineering could regulate precipitation as well as temperature.
Bethany Sutherland, Ben Kravitz, Philip J. Rasch, and Hailong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-228, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-228, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Through a cascade of physical mechanisms, a change in one location can trigger a response in a different location. These responses and the mechanisms that cause them are difficult to detect. Here we propose a method, using global climate models, to detect possible relationships between changes in one region and responses throughout the globe caused by that change. A change in the Pacific ocean is used as a test case to determine the effectiveness of the method.
Yangyang Xu, Lei Lin, Simone Tilmes, Katherine Dagon, Lili Xia, Chenrui Diao, Wei Cheng, Zhili Wang, Isla Simpson, and Lorna Burnell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 673–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-673-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-673-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Two geoengineering schemes to mitigate global warming, (a) capturing atmospheric CO2 and (b) injecting stratospheric sulfur gas, are compared. Based on two sets of large-ensemble model experiments, we show that sulfur injection will effectively mitigate projected terrestrial drying over the Americas, and the mitigation benefit will emerge more quickly than with carbon capture. Innovative means of sulfur injection should continue to be explored as one potential low-cost climate solution.
Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Leo van Kampenhout, Laura Muntjewerf, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Michael J. Mills, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 579–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces new geoengineering model experiments as part of a larger model intercomparison effort, using reflective particles to block some of the incoming solar radiation to reach surface temperature targets. Outcomes of these applications are contrasted based on a high greenhouse gas emission pathway and a pathway with strong mitigation and negative emissions after 2040. We compare quantities that matter for societal and ecosystem impacts between the different scenarios.
Theodore Weber, Austin Corotan, Brian Hutchinson, Ben Kravitz, and Robert Link
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2303–2317, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2303-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2303-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model emulators can save computer time but are less accurate than full climate models. We use neural networks to build emulators of precipitation, trained on existing climate model runs. By doing so, we can capture nonlinearities and how the past state of a model (to some degree) shapes the future state. Our emulator outperforms a persistence forecast of precipitation.
Robert Link, Abigail Snyder, Cary Lynch, Corinne Hartin, Ben Kravitz, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1477–1489, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1477-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1477-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models (ESMs) produce the highest-quality future climate data available, but they are costly to run, so only a few runs from each model are publicly available. What is needed are emulators that tell us what would have happened, if we had been able to perform as many ESM runs as we might have liked. Much of the existing work on emulators has focused on deterministic projections of average values. Here we present a way to imbue emulators with the variability seen in ESM runs.
Christopher G. Fletcher, Ben Kravitz, and Bakr Badawy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17529–17543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17529-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17529-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The most important number for future climate projections is Earth's climate sensitivity (CS), or how much warming will result from increased carbon dioxide. We cannot know the true CS, and estimates of CS from climate models have a wide range. This study identifies the major factors that control this range, and we show that the choice of methods used in creating a climate model are three times more important than fine-tuning the details of the model after it is created.
Ben Kravitz, Philip J. Rasch, Hailong Wang, Alan Robock, Corey Gabriel, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Duoying Ji, Andy Jones, Andrew Lenton, John C. Moore, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Steven Phipps, Hauke Schmidt, Shingo Watanabe, Shuting Yang, and Jin-Ho Yoon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13097–13113, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13097-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13097-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Marine cloud brightening has been proposed as a means of geoengineering/climate intervention, or deliberately altering the climate system to offset anthropogenic climate change. In idealized simulations that highlight contrasts between land and ocean, we find that the globe warms, including the ocean due to transport of heat from land. This study reinforces that no net energy input into the Earth system does not mean that temperature will necessarily remain unchanged.
Duoying Ji, Songsong Fang, Charles L. Curry, Hiroki Kashimura, Shingo Watanabe, Jason N. S. Cole, Andrew Lenton, Helene Muri, Ben Kravitz, and John C. Moore
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10133–10156, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10133-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10133-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We examine extreme temperature and precipitation under climate-model-simulated solar dimming and stratospheric aerosol injection geoengineering schemes. Both types of geoengineering lead to lower minimum temperatures at higher latitudes and greater cooling of minimum temperatures and maximum temperatures over land compared with oceans. Stratospheric aerosol injection is more effective in reducing tropical extreme precipitation, while solar dimming is more effective over extra-tropical regions.
David P. Keller, Andrew Lenton, Vivian Scott, Naomi E. Vaughan, Nico Bauer, Duoying Ji, Chris D. Jones, Ben Kravitz, Helene Muri, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1133–1160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1133-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1133-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
There is little consensus on the impacts and efficacy of proposed carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods as a potential means of mitigating climate change. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDR-MIP) has been initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDR-MIP experiments.
Camilla W. Stjern, Helene Muri, Lars Ahlm, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Duoying Ji, Andy Jones, Jim Haywood, Ben Kravitz, Andrew Lenton, John C. Moore, Ulrike Niemeier, Steven J. Phipps, Hauke Schmidt, Shingo Watanabe, and Jón Egill Kristjánsson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 621–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-621-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-621-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Marine cloud brightening (MCB) has been proposed to help limit global warming. We present here the first multi-model assessment of idealized MCB simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. While all models predict a global cooling as intended, there is considerable spread between the models both in terms of radiative forcing and the climate response, largely linked to the substantial differences in the models' representation of clouds.
Lars Ahlm, Andy Jones, Camilla W. Stjern, Helene Muri, Ben Kravitz, and Jón Egill Kristjánsson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13071–13087, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13071-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13071-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present results from coordinated simulations with three Earth system models focusing on the response of Earth’s radiation balance to the injection of sea salt particles. We find that in most regions the effective radiative forcing by the injected particles is equally large in cloudy and clear-sky conditions, suggesting a more important role of the aerosol direct effect in sea spray climate engineering than previously thought.
Cary Lynch, Corinne Hartin, Ben Bond-Lamberty, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 281–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-281-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-281-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Pattern scaling climate model output is a computationally efficient way to produce a large amount of data for purposes of uncertainty quantification. Using a multi-model ensemble we explore pattern scaling methodologies across two future forcing scenarios. We find that the simple least squares approach to pattern scaling produces a close approximation of actual model output, and we use this as a justification for the creation of an open-access pattern library at multiple time increments.
Ben Kravitz, Cary Lynch, Corinne Hartin, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1889–1902, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1889-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1889-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Pattern scaling is a way of approximating regional changes without needing to run a full, complex global climate model. We compare two methods of pattern scaling for precipitation and evaluate which methods is
betterin particular circumstances. We also decompose precipitation into a CO2 portion and a non-CO2 portion. The methodologies discussed in this paper can help provide precipitation fields for other models for a wide variety of scenarios of future climate change.
Hiroki Kashimura, Manabu Abe, Shingo Watanabe, Takashi Sekiya, Duoying Ji, John C. Moore, Jason N. S. Cole, and Ben Kravitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3339–3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3339-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3339-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses shortwave radiation (SW) in the G4 experiment of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. G4 involves stratospheric injection of 5 Tg yr−1 of SO2 against the RCP4.5 scenario. The global mean forcing of the sulphate geoengineering has an inter-model variablity of −3.6 to −1.6 W m−2, implying a high uncertainty in modelled processes of sulfate aerosols. Changes in water vapour and cloud amounts due to the SO2 injection weaken the forcing at the surface by around 50 %.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Philip J. Rasch, and Hailong Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2525–2541, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2525-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2525-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce system identification techniques to climate science wherein multiple dynamic input–output relationships can be simultaneously characterized in a single simulation. This method, involving multiple small perturbations (in space and time) of an input field while monitoring output fields to quantify responses, allows for identification of different timescales of climate response to forcing without substantially pushing the climate far away from a steady state.
Corey J. Gabriel, Alan Robock, Lili Xia, Brian Zambri, and Ben Kravitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 595–613, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-595-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-595-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The National Center for Atmospheric Research CESM-CAM4-CHEM global climate model was modified to simulate a scheme in which the albedo of the ocean surface is raised over the subtropical ocean gyres in the Southern Hemisphere. Global mean surface temperature in G4Foam is 0.6K lower than RCP6.0, with statistically significant cooling relative to RCP6.0 south of 30° N and an increase in rainfall over land, most pronouncedly during the JJA season, relative to both G4SSA and RCP6.0.
Cary Lynch, Corinne Hartin, Ben Bond-Lamberty, and Ben Kravitz
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-170, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-170, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Pattern scaling is used to explore uncertainty in future forcing scenarios and assess local climate sensitivity to global temperature change. This paper examines the two dominant pattern scaling methods using a multi-model ensemble with two future socio-economic storylines. We find that high latitudes show the strongest sensitivity to global temperature change and that the simple least squared regression approach to generation of patterns is a better fit to projected global temperature.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Hailong Wang, and Philip J. Rasch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 469–497, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-469-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-469-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Most simulations of solar geoengineering prescribe a particular strategy and evaluate its modeled effects. Here we first choose example climate objectives and then design a strategy to meet those objectives in climate models. We show that certain objectives can be met simultaneously even in the presence of uncertainty, and the strategy for meeting those objectives can be ported to other models. This is part of a broader illustration of how uncertainties in solar geoengineering can be managed.
B. Kravitz, A. Robock, S. Tilmes, O. Boucher, J. M. English, P. J. Irvine, A. Jones, M. G. Lawrence, M. MacCracken, H. Muri, J. C. Moore, U. Niemeier, S. J. Phipps, J. Sillmann, T. Storelvmo, H. Wang, and S. Watanabe
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3379–3392, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3379-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3379-2015, 2015
S. Tilmes, M. J. Mills, U. Niemeier, H. Schmidt, A. Robock, B. Kravitz, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Pitari, and J. M. English
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 43–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-43-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-43-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment “G4 specified stratospheric aerosols” (G4SSA) is proposed to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on atmosphere, chemistry, dynamics, climate, and the environment. In contrast to the earlier G4 GeoMIP experiment, which requires an emission of sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the model, a prescribed aerosol forcing file is provided to the community, to be consistently applied to future model experiments.
Related subject area
Subject: Aerosols | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Sharp increase in Saharan dust intrusions over the western Euro-Mediterranean in February–March 2020–2022 and associated atmospheric circulation
Temporal and spatial variations in dust activity in Australia based on remote sensing and reanalysis datasets
Sensitivity of global direct aerosol shortwave radiative forcing to uncertainties in aerosol optical properties
Molecular-level study on the role of methanesulfonic acid in iodine oxoacid nucleation
Regional to global distributions, trends, and drivers of biogenic volatile organic compound emission from 2001 to 2020
Impacts of ice-nucleating particles on cirrus clouds and radiation derived from global model simulations with MADE3 in EMAC
Seasonal characteristics of emission, distribution, and radiative effect of marine organic aerosols over the western Pacific Ocean: an investigation with a coupled regional climate aerosol model
Fire–precipitation interactions amplify the quasi-biennial variability in fires over southern Mexico and Central America
Improved estimates of smoke exposure during Australia fire seasons: importance of quantifying plume injection heights
New particle formation induced by anthropogenic–biogenic interactions on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Investigation of observed dust trends over the Middle East region in NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model simulations
A new process-based and scale-aware desert dust emission scheme for global climate models – Part II: Evaluation in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2)
How well do Earth system models reproduce the observed aerosol response to rapid emission reductions? A COVID-19 case study
Observationally constrained analysis of sulfur cycle in the marine atmosphere with NASA ATom measurements and AeroCom model simulations
Impact of acidity and surface-modulated acid dissociation on cloud response to organic aerosol
The contribution of residential wood combustion to the PM2.5 concentrations in the Helsinki metropolitan area
Analysis of atmospheric particle growth based on vapor concentrations measured at the high-altitude GAW station Chacaltaya in the Bolivian Andes
Expanding the simulation of East Asian super dust storms: physical transport mechanisms impacting the western Pacific
Improving 3-day deterministic air pollution forecasts using machine learning algorithms
Opinion: The importance of historical and paleoclimate aerosol radiative effects
Assessing the assimilation of Himawari-8 observations on aerosol forecasts and radiative effects during pollution transport from South Asia to the Tibetan Plateau
Aerosol–meteorology feedback diminishes the transboundary transport of black carbon into the Tibetan Plateau
Associations of interannual variation in summer tropospheric ozone with the Western Pacific Subtropical High in China from 1999 to 2017
Climate intervention using marine cloud brightening (MCB) compared with stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) in the UKESM1 climate model
Comparison of six approaches to predicting droplet activation of surface active aerosol – Part 2: Strong surfactants
Increased importance of aerosol–cloud interactions for surface PM2.5 pollution relative to aerosol–radiation interactions in China with the anthropogenic emission reductions
The role of temporal scales in extracting dominant meteorological drivers of major airborne pollutants
Biomass-burning smoke's properties and its interactions with marine stratocumulus clouds in WRF-CAM5 and southeastern Atlantic field campaigns
Air pollution trapping in the Dresden Basin from gray-zone scale urban modeling
The effect of atmospherically relevant aminium salts on water uptake
Droplet collection efficiencies estimated from satellite retrievals constrain effective radiative forcing of aerosol-cloud interactions
Intercomparison of Aerosol Optical Depths from four reanalyses and their multi-reanalysis-consensus
The impact of aerosols on stratiform clouds over southern West Africa: a large-eddy-simulation study
Numerical simulation and evaluation of global ultrafine particle concentrations at the Earth's surface
Rapid Iodine Oxoacids Nucleation Enhanced by Dimethylamine in Broad Marine Regions
Comparing the simulated influence of biomass burning plumes on low-level clouds over the southeastern Atlantic under varying smoke conditions
Global aviation contrail climate effects from 2019 to 2021
Global aerosol typing classification using a new hybrid algorithm utilizing Aerosol Robotic Network data
Diagnosing uncertainties in global biomass burning emission inventories and their impact on modeled air pollutants
The underappreciated role of transboundary pollution in future air quality and health improvements in China
The export of African mineral dust across the Atlantic and its impact over the Amazon Basin
Assimilation of POLDER observations to estimate aerosol emissions
Role of atmospheric aerosols in severe winter fog over Indo Gangetic Plains of India: a case study
Effect of radiation interaction and aerosol processes on ventilation and aerosol concentrations in a real urban neighbourhood in Helsinki
Numerical evidence that the impact of CCN and INP concentrations on mixed-phase clouds is observable with cloud radars
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation modulates the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and fire weather in Australia
Phase state and viscosity of secondary organic aerosols over China simulated by WRF-Chem
Identifying climate model structural inconsistencies allows for tight constraint of aerosol radiative forcing
Impacts of reducing scattering and absorbing aerosols on the temporal extent and intensity of South Asian summer monsoon and East Asian summer monsoon
Superimposed effects of typical local circulations driven by mountainous topography and aerosol–radiation interaction on heavy haze in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei central and southern plains in winter
Emilio Cuevas-Agulló, David Barriopedro, Rosa Delia García, Silvia Alonso-Pérez, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Ernest Werner, David Suárez, Juan José Bustos, Gerardo García-Castrillo, Omaira García, África Barreto, and Sara Basart
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4083–4104, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4083-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4083-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
During February–March (FM) 2020–2022, unusually intense dust storms from northern Africa hit the western Euro-Mediterranean (WEM). Using dust products from satellites and atmospheric reanalysis for 2003–2022, results show that cut-off lows and European blocking are key drivers of FM dust intrusions over the WEM. A higher frequency of cut-off lows associated with subtropical ridges is observed in the late 2020–2022 period.
Yahui Che, Bofu Yu, and Katherine Bracco
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4105–4128, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4105-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Dust events occur more frequently during the Austral spring and summer in dust regions, including central Australia, the southwest of Western Australia, and the northern and southern regions of eastern Australia using remote sensing and reanalysis datasets. High-concentration dust is distributed around central Australia and in the downwind northern and southern Australia. Typically, around 50 % of the dust lifted settles on Australian land, with the remaining half being deposited in the ocean.
Jonathan Elsey, Nicolas Bellouin, and Claire Ryder
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4065–4081, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols influence the Earth's energy balance. The uncertainty in this radiative forcing is large depending partly on uncertainty in measurements of aerosol optical properties. We have developed a freely available new framework of millions of radiative transfer simulations spanning aerosol uncertainty and assess the impact on radiative forcing uncertainty. We find that reducing these uncertainties would reduce radiative forcing uncertainty, but non-aerosol uncertainties must also be considered.
Jing Li, Nan Wu, Biwu Chu, An Ning, and Xiuhui Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3989–4000, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3989-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3989-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Iodic acid (HIO3) nucleates with iodous acid (HIO2) efficiently in marine areas; however, whether methanesulfonic acid (MSA) can synergistically participate in the HIO3–HIO2-based nucleation is unclear. We provide molecular-level evidence that MSA can efficiently promote the formation of HIO3–HIO2-based clusters using a theoretical approach. The proposed MSA-enhanced iodine nucleation mechanism may help us to deeply understand marine new particle formation events with bursts of iodine particles.
Hao Wang, Xiaohong Liu, Chenglai Wu, and Guangxing Lin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3309–3328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We quantified different global- and regional-scale drivers of biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emission trends over the past 20 years. The results show that global greening trends significantly boost BVOC emissions and deforestation reduces BVOC emissions in South America and Southeast Asia. Elevated temperature in Europe and increased soil moisture in East and South Asia enhance BVOC emissions. The results deepen our understanding of long-term BVOC emission trends in hotspots.
Christof G. Beer, Johannes Hendricks, and Mattia Righi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3217–3240, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) have important influences on cirrus clouds and the climate system; however, the understanding of their global impacts is still uncertain. We perform numerical simulations with a global aerosol–climate model to analyse INP-induced cirrus changes and the resulting climate impacts. We evaluate various sources of uncertainties, e.g. the ice-nucleating ability of INPs and the role of model dynamics, and provide a new estimate for the global INP–cirrus effect.
Jiawei Li, Zhiwei Han, Pingqing Fu, Xiaohong Yao, and Mingjie Liang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3129–3161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3129-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3129-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Organic aerosols of marine origin are important for aerosol climatic effects but are poorly understood. For the first time, an online coupled regional chemistry–climate model is applied to explore the characteristics of emission, distribution, and direct and indirect radiative effects of marine organic aerosols over the western Pacific, which reveals an important role of marine organic aerosols in perturbing cloud and radiation and promotes understanding of global aerosol climatic impact.
Yawen Liu, Yun Qian, Philip J. Rasch, Kai Zhang, Lai-yung Ruby Leung, Yuhang Wang, Minghuai Wang, Hailong Wang, Xin Huang, and Xiu-Qun Yang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3115–3128, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Fire management has long been a challenge. Here we report that spring-peak fire activity over southern Mexico and Central America (SMCA) has a distinct quasi-biennial signal by measuring multiple fire metrics. This signal is initially driven by quasi-biennial variability in precipitation and is further amplified by positive feedback of fire–precipitation interaction at short timescales. This work highlights the importance of fire–climate interactions in shaping fires on an interannual scale.
Xu Feng, Loretta J. Mickley, Michelle L. Bell, Tianjia Liu, Jenny A. Fisher, and Maria Val Martin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2985–3007, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2985-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2985-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
During severe wildfire seasons, smoke can have a significant impact on air quality in Australia. Our study demonstrates that characterization of the smoke plume injection fractions greatly affects estimates of surface smoke PM2.5. Using the plume behavior predicted by the machine learning method leads to the best model agreement with observed surface PM2.5 in key cities across Australia, with smoke PM2.5 accounting for 5 %–52 % of total PM2.5 on average during fire seasons from 2009 to 2020.
Shiyi Lai, Ximeng Qi, Xin Huang, Sijia Lou, Xuguang Chi, Liangduo Chen, Chong Liu, Yuliang Liu, Chao Yan, Mengmeng Li, Tengyu Liu, Wei Nie, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Tuukka Petäjä, Markku Kulmala, and Aijun Ding
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2535–2553, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2535-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2535-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
By combining in situ measurements and chemical transport modeling, this study investigates new particle formation (NPF) on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. We found that the NPF was driven by the presence of biogenic gases and the transport of anthropogenic precursors. The NPF was vertically heterogeneous and shaped by the vertical mixing. This study highlights the importance of anthropogenic–biogenic interactions and meteorological dynamics in NPF in this climate-sensitive region.
Adriana Rocha-Lima, Peter R. Colarco, Anton S. Darmenov, Edward P. Nowottnick, Arlindo M. da Silva, and Luke D. Oman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2443–2464, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2443-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2443-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Observations show an increasing aerosol optical depth trend in the Middle East between 2003–2012. We evaluate the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model's ability to capture these trends and examine the meteorological and surface parameters driving dust emissions. Our results highlight the importance of data assimilation for long-term trends of atmospheric aerosols and support the hypothesis that vegetation cover loss may have contributed to increasing dust emissions in the period.
Danny M. Leung, Jasper F. Kok, Longlei Li, Natalie M. Mahowald, David M. Lawrence, Simone Tilmes, Erik Kluzek, Martina Klose, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2287–2318, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2287-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a premier Earth system model to evaluate a new desert dust emission scheme proposed in our companion paper. We show that our scheme accounts for more dust emission physics, hence matching better against observations than other existing dust emission schemes do. Our scheme's dust emissions also couple tightly with meteorology, hence likely improving the modeled dust sensitivity to climate change. We believe this work is vital for improving dust representation in climate models.
Ruth A. R. Digby, Nathan P. Gillett, Adam H. Monahan, Knut von Salzen, Antonis Gkikas, Qianqian Song, and Zhibo Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2077–2097, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2077-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2077-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The COVID-19 lockdowns reduced aerosol emissions. We ask whether these reductions affected regional aerosol optical depth (AOD) and compare the observed changes to predictions from Earth system models. Only India has an observed AOD reduction outside of typical variability. Models overestimate the response in some regions, but when key biases have been addressed, the agreement is improved. Our results suggest that current models can realistically predict the effects of future emission changes.
Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Peter R. Colarco, Eric C. Apel, Donald R. Blake, Karl Froyd, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, Jose Jimenez, Pedro Campuzano Jost, Michael Lawler, Mingxu Liu, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Hitoshi Matsui, Benjamin A. Nault, Joyce E. Penner, Andrew W. Rollins, Gregory Schill, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Hailong Wang, Lu Xu, Kai Zhang, and Jialei Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1717–1741, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1717-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1717-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work studies sulfur in the remote troposphere at global and seasonal scales using aircraft measurements and multi-model simulations. The goal is to understand the sulfur cycle over remote oceans, spread of model simulations, and observation–model discrepancies. Such an understanding and comparison with real observations are crucial to narrow down the uncertainties in model sulfur simulations and improve understanding of the sulfur cycle in atmospheric air quality, climate, and ecosystems.
Gargi Sengupta, Minjie Zheng, and Nønne L. Prisle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1467–1487, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1467-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1467-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of organic acid aerosol on sulfur chemistry and cloud properties was investigated in an atmospheric model. Organic acid dissociation was considered using both bulk and surface-related properties. We found that organic acid dissociation leads to increased hydrogen ion concentrations and sulfate aerosol mass in aqueous aerosols, increasing cloud formation. This could be important in large-scale climate models as many organic aerosol components are both acidic and surface-active.
Leena Kangas, Jaakko Kukkonen, Mari Kauhaniemi, Kari Riikonen, Mikhail Sofiev, Anu Kousa, Jarkko V. Niemi, and Ari Karppinen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1489–1507, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1489-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1489-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Residential wood combustion is a major source of fine particulate matter. This study has evaluated the contribution of residential wood combustion to fine particle concentrations and its year-to-year and seasonal variation in te Helsinki metropolitan area. The average concentrations attributed to wood combustion in winter were up to 10- or 15-fold compared to summer. Wood combustion caused 12 % to 14 % of annual fine particle concentrations. In winter, the contribution ranged from 16 % to 21 %.
Arto Heitto, Cheng Wu, Diego Aliaga, Luis Blacutt, Xuemeng Chen, Yvette Gramlich, Liine Heikkinen, Wei Huang, Radovan Krejci, Paolo Laj, Isabel Moreno, Karine Sellegri, Fernando Velarde, Kay Weinhold, Alfred Wiedensohler, Qiaozhi Zha, Federico Bianchi, Marcos Andrade, Kari E. J. Lehtinen, Claudia Mohr, and Taina Yli-Juuti
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1315–1328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Particle growth at the Chacaltaya station in Bolivia was simulated based on measured vapor concentrations and ambient conditions. Major contributors to the simulated growth were low-volatility organic compounds (LVOCs). Also, sulfuric acid had major role when volcanic activity was occurring in the area. This study provides insight on nanoparticle growth at this high-altitude Southern Hemispheric site and hence contributes to building knowledge of early growth of atmospheric particles.
Steven Soon-Kai Kong, Saginela Ravindra Babu, Sheng-Hsiang Wang, Stephen M. Griffith, Jackson Hian-Wui Chang, Ming-Tung Chuang, Guey-Rong Sheu, and Neng-Huei Lin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1041–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1041-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1041-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we combined ground observations from 7-SEAS Dongsha Experiment, MERRA-2 reanalysis, and MODIS satellite images for evaluation and improvement of the CMAQ dust model for cases of East Asian Dust reaching the Taiwan region, including Dongsha in the western Pacific. We proposed a better CMAQ dust treatment over East Asia and for the first time revealed the impact of typhoons on dust transport.
Zhiguo Zhang, Christer Johansson, Magnuz Engardt, Massimo Stafoggia, and Xiaoliang Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 807–851, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-807-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-807-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Up-to-date information on present and near-future air quality help people avoid exposure to high levels of air pollution. We apply different machine learning models to significantly improve traditional forecasts of PM10, NOx, and O3 in Stockholm, Sweden. It is shown that forecasts of all air pollutants are improved by the input of lagged measurements and taking calendar information into account. The final modelled errors are substantially smaller than uncertainties in the measurements.
Natalie M. Mahowald, Longlei Li, Samuel Albani, Douglas S. Hamilton, and Jasper F. Kok
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 533–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-533-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating past aerosol radiative effects and their uncertainties is an important topic in climate science. Aerosol radiative effects propagate into large uncertainties in estimates of how present and future climate evolves with changing greenhouse gas emissions. A deeper understanding of how aerosols interacted with the atmospheric energy budget under past climates is hindered in part by a lack of relevant paleo-observations and in part because less attention has been paid to the problem.
Min Zhao, Tie Dai, Daisuke Goto, Hao Wang, and Guangyu Shi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 235–258, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-235-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-235-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
During a springtime pollution input from South Asia to the Tibetan Plateau, we combined atmospheric chemistry modeling and data assimilation methods to assimilate and forecast aerosols from South Asia and the Tibetan Plateau. Assimilation of observations over a whole time window leads to a more reasonable distribution of daily variations in the aerosol forecast field. We also find that aerosol assimilation can improve the surface solar energy forecast in the Tibetan Plateau region.
Yuling Hu, Haipeng Yu, Shichang Kang, Junhua Yang, Mukesh Rai, Xiufeng Yin, Xintong Chen, and Pengfei Chen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 85–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-85-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-85-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Tibetan Plateau (TP) saw a record-breaking aerosol pollution event from April 20 to May 10, 2016. We studied the impact of aerosol–meteorology feedback on the transboundary transport flux of black carbon (BC) during this severe pollution event. It was found that the aerosol–meteorology feedback decreases the transboundary transport flux of BC from the central and western Himalayas towards the TP. This study is of great significance for the protection of the ecological environment of the TP.
Xiaodong Zhang, Ruiyu Zhugu, Xiaohu Jian, Xinrui Liu, Kaijie Chen, Shu Tao, Junfeng Liu, Hong Gao, Tao Huang, and Jianmin Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15629–15642, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15629-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
WRF-Chem modeling was conducted to assess impacts of Western Pacific Subtropical High Pressure (WPSH) on interannual fluctuations of O3 pollution in China. We find that, while precursor emissions dominated the long-term trend and magnitude of O3 from 1999 to 2017, WPSH determined interannual variation of summer O3. The response of O3 pollution to WPSH in major urban clusters depended on the proximity of these urban areas to WPSH. The results could help long-term O3 pollution mitigation planning.
Jim M. Haywood, Andy Jones, Anthony C. Jones, Paul Halloran, and Philip J. Rasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15305–15324, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15305-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The difficulties in ameliorating global warming and the associated climate change via conventional mitigation are well documented, with all climate model scenarios exceeding 1.5 °C above the preindustrial level in the near future. There is therefore a growing interest in geoengineering to reflect a greater proportion of sunlight back to space and offset some of the global warming. We use a state-of-the-art Earth-system model to investigate two of the most prominent geoengineering strategies.
Sampo Vepsäläinen, Silvia M. Calderón, and Nønne L. Prisle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15149–15164, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15149-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15149-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric aerosols act as seeds for cloud formation. Many aerosols contain surface active material that accumulates at the surface of growing droplets. This can affect cloud droplet activation, but the broad significance of the effect and the best way to model it are still debated. We compare predictions of six models to surface activity of strongly surface active aerosol and find significant differences between the models, especially with large fractions of surfactant in the dry particles.
Da Gao, Bin Zhao, Shuxiao Wang, Yuan Wang, Brian Gaudet, Yun Zhu, Xiaochun Wang, Jiewen Shen, Shengyue Li, Yicong He, Dejia Yin, and Zhaoxin Dong
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14359–14373, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14359-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14359-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Surface PM2.5 concentrations can be enhanced by aerosol–radiation interactions (ARIs) and aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs). In this study, we found PM2.5 enhancement induced by ACIs shows a significantly smaller decrease ratio than that induced by ARIs in China with anthropogenic emission reduction from 2013 to 2021, making ACIs more important for enhancing PM2.5 concentrations. ACI-induced PM2.5 enhancement needs to be emphatically considered to meet the national PM2.5 air quality standard.
Miaoqing Xu, Jing Yang, Manchun Li, Xiao Chen, Qiancheng Lv, Qi Yao, Bingbo Gao, and Ziyue Chen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14065–14076, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14065-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Although the temporal-scale effects on PM2.5–meteorology associations have been discussed, no quantitative evidence has proved this before. Based on rare 3 h meteorology data, we revealed that the dominant meteorological factor for PM2.5 concentrations across China extracted at the 3 h and 24 h scales presented large variations. This research suggests that data sources of different temporal scales should be comprehensively considered for better attribution and prevention of airborne pollution.
Calvin Howes, Pablo E. Saide, Hugh Coe, Amie Dobracki, Steffen Freitag, Jim M. Haywood, Steven G. Howell, Siddhant Gupta, Janek Uin, Mary Kacarab, Chongai Kuang, L. Ruby Leung, Athanasios Nenes, Greg M. McFarquhar, James Podolske, Jens Redemann, Arthur J. Sedlacek, Kenneth L. Thornhill, Jenny P. S. Wong, Robert Wood, Huihui Wu, Yang Zhang, Jianhao Zhang, and Paquita Zuidema
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13911–13940, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13911-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To better understand smoke properties and its interactions with clouds, we compare the WRF-CAM5 model with observations from ORACLES, CLARIFY, and LASIC field campaigns in the southeastern Atlantic in August 2017. The model transports and mixes smoke well but does not fully capture some important processes. These include smoke chemical and physical aging over 4–12 days, smoke removal by rain, sulfate particle formation, aerosol activation into cloud droplets, and boundary layer turbulence.
Michael Weger and Bernd Heinold
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13769–13790, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13769-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the effects of complex terrain on air pollution trapping using a numerical model which simulates the dispersion of emissions under real meteorological conditions. The additionally simulated aerosol age allows us to distinguish areas that accumulate aerosol over time from areas that are more influenced by fresh emissions. The Dresden Basin, a widened section of the Elbe Valley in eastern Germany, is selected as the target area in a case study to demonstrate the concept.
Noora Hyttinen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13809–13817, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13809-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Water activity in aerosol particles describes how particles respond to variations in relative humidity. Here, water activities were calculated for a set of 80 salts that may be present in aerosol particles using a state-of-the-art quantum-chemistry-based method. The effect of the dissociated salt on water activity varies with both the cation and anion. Most of the studied salts increase water uptake compared to pure water-soluble organic particles.
Charlotte M. Beall, Po-Lun Ma, Matthew W. Christensen, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Adam Varble, Kentaroh Suzuki, and Takuro Michibata
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2161, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2161, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Single-layer warm liquid clouds cover nearly one-third of the earth's surface, and uncertainties regarding the impact of aerosols on their radiative properties pose a significant challenge to climate prediction. Here, we demonstrate how satellite observations can be used to constrain Earth Systems Model estimates of the radiative forcing due to the interactions of aerosols with clouds due to warm rain processes.
Peng Xian, Jeffrey S. Reid, Melanie Ades, Angela Benedettie, Peter R. Colarco, Arlindo da Silva, Tom F. Eck, Johannes Flemming, Edward J. Hyer, Zak Kipling, Samuel Rémy, Tsuyoshi Thomas Sekiyama, Taichu Tanaka, Keiya Yumimoto, and Jianglong Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2354, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2354, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study compares and evaluates the monthly aerosol optical depth of four reanalyses (RA) and their consensus. The basic verification characteristics of these RA versus both AERONET and MODIS retrievals are presented. The study discusses the strength of each RA and identifies regions where diversity and challenges are prominent. The RA consensus usually performs very well on a global scale in terms of how well it matches the observational data, making it a good choice for various applications.
Lambert Delbeke, Chien Wang, Pierre Tulet, Cyrielle Denjean, Maurin Zouzoua, Nicolas Maury, and Adrien Deroubaix
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13329–13354, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13329-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13329-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Low-level stratiform clouds (LLSCs) appear frequently over southern West Africa during the West African monsoon. Local and remote aerosol sources (biomass burning aerosols from central Africa) play a significant role in the LLSC life cycle. Based on measurements by the DACCIWA campaign, large-eddy simulation (LES) was conducted using different aerosol scenarios. The results show that both indirect and semi-direct effects can act individually or jointly to influence the life cycles of LLSCs.
Matthias Kohl, Jos Lelieveld, Sourangsu Chowdhury, Sebastian Ehrhart, Disha Sharma, Yafang Cheng, Sachchida Nand Tripathi, Mathew Sebastian, Govindan Pandithurai, Hongli Wang, and Andrea Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13191–13215, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13191-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13191-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Knowledge on atmospheric ultrafine particles (UFPs) with a diameter smaller than 100 nm is crucial for public health and the hydrological cycle. We present a new global dataset of UFP concentrations at the Earth's surface derived with a comprehensive chemistry–climate model and evaluated with ground-based observations. The evaluation results are combined with high-resolution primary emissions to downscale UFP concentrations to an unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.1° × 0.1°.
Haotian Zu, Biwu Chu, Yiqun Lu, Ling Liu, and Xiuhui Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1774, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1774, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The nucleation process of iodic acid (HIO3) and iodous acid (HIO2) was proved to be critical in marine areas. However, HIO3-HIO2 nucleation cannot effectively derive the observed rapid new particle formation in broad marine areas. We show the extensive participation of dimethylamine (DMA) in HIO3-HIO2 nucleation and find a significant enhancement of DMA on the HIO3-HIO2 nucleation, which establishes reasonable connections between the iodine oxoacids nucleation and the rapid marine new particles.
Alejandro Baró Pérez, Michael S. Diamond, Frida A.-M. Bender, Abhay Devasthale, Matthias Schwarz, Julien Savre, Juha Tonttila, Harri Kokkola, Hyunho Lee, David Painemal, and Annica M. L. Ekman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2070, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2070, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use a numerical model to study interactions between humid light-absorbing aerosol plumes, clouds, and radiation over the Southeast Atlantic. We find that the warming produced by the aerosols reduces cloud cover, especially in highly polluted situations. Aerosol impacts on drizzle play a minor role. However, aerosol effects on cloud reflectivity and moisture-induced changes in cloud cover dominate the climatic response and lead to an overall cooling by the biomass-burning plumes.
Roger Teoh, Zebediah Engberg, Ulrich Schumann, Christiane Voigt, Marc Shapiro, Susanne Rohs, and Marc Stettler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1859, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1859, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The radiative forcing attributable to aviation contrails is estimated for 2019–21. We estimate a global contrail net RF that is approximately half the best estimate of a previous study. Contrail climate impacts have not scaled proportionally with air traffic growth due to higher growth in regions where contrails are less likely to form. There are significant opportunities to mitigate contrail impacts as only 2 % of all flights globally account for 80 % of the annual contrail energy forcing.
Xiaoli Wei, Qian Cui, Leiming Ma, Feng Zhang, Wenwen Li, and Peng Liu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1754, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new aerosol-type classification algorithm was proposed. It includes an optical database building by Mie scattering and a complex refractive index working as a baseline to identify different aerosol types. The new algorithm shows high accuracy and efficiency. Hence, a global map of aerosol types was generated using the new algorithm to characterize aerosol types across the five continents. It will help improve the accuracy of aerosol inversion and determine the sources of aerosol pollution.
Wenxuan Hua, Sijia Lou, Xin Huang, Lian Xue, Ke Ding, Zilin Wang, and Aijun Ding
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1822, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1822, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we diagnose uncertainties in CO and OC emissions from four inventories for seven majorwildfire-prone regions. Uncertainties in vegetation classification methods, fire detection products, and cloud obscuration effects lead to bias in these biomass burning (BB) emission inventories. By comparing simulations with measurements, we provide certain inventory recommendations. Our study has implications for reducing uncertainties in emissions in further studies.
Jun-Wei Xu, Jintai Lin, Dan Tong, and Lulu Chen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10075–10089, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10075-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study highlights the necessity of a low-carbon pathway in foreign countries for China to achieve air quality goals and to protect public health. We find that adopting the low-carbon instead of the fossil-fuel-intensive pathway in foreign countries would prevent 63 000–270 000 transboundary PM2.5-associated mortalities in China in 2060. Our study provides direct evidence of the necessity of inter-regional cooperation for air quality improvement.
Xurong Wang, Qiaoqiao Wang, Maria Prass, Christopher Pöhlker, Daniel Moran-Zuloaga, Paulo Artaxo, Jianwei Gu, Ning Yang, Xiajie Yang, Jiangchuan Tao, Juan Hong, Nan Ma, Yafang Cheng, Hang Su, and Meinrat O. Andreae
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9993–10014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9993-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9993-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, with an optimized particle mass size distribution, we captured observed aerosol optical depth (AOD) and coarse aerosol concentrations over source and/or receptor regions well, demonstrating good performance in simulating export of African dust toward the Amazon Basin. In addition to factors controlling the transatlantic transport of African dust, the study investigated the impact of African dust over the Amazon Basin, including the nutrient inputs associated with dust deposition.
Athanasios Tsikerdekis, Otto P. Hasekamp, Nick A. J. Schutgens, and Qirui Zhong
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9495–9524, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9495-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9495-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols are tiny particles of different substances (species) that can be emitted into the atmosphere by natural processes or by anthropogenic activities. However, the actual aerosol emission amount per species is highly uncertain. Thus in this work we correct the aerosol emissions used to drive a global aerosol–climate model using satellite observations through a process called data assimilation. These more accurate aerosol emissions can lead to a more accurate weather and climate prediction.
Chandrakala Bharali, Mary Barth, Rajesh Kumar, Sachin D. Ghude, Vinayak Sinha, and Baerbel Sinha
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1686, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1686, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the role of atmospheric aerosols in winter fog over the Indo-Gangetic Plains of India using the WRF-Chem model. The increase in RH with aerosol-radiation feedback (ARF) is found to be important for fog formation as it promoted the growth of aerosol and increased aerosol activation in the polluted environment. ARF and aqueous phase chemistry affected the timing of fog formation by ~1–2 hours and the fog intensity by modulating the meteorology and aerosol concentration.
Jani Strömberg, Xiaoyu Li, Mona Kurppa, Heino Kuuluvainen, Liisa Pirjola, and Leena Järvi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9347–9364, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9347-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9347-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We conclude that with low wind speeds, solar radiation has a larger decreasing effect (53 %) on pollutant concentrations than aerosol processes (18 %). Additionally, our results showed that with solar radiation included, pollutant concentrations were closer to observations (−13 %) than with only aerosol processes (+98 %). This has implications when planning simulations under calm conditions such as in our case and when deciding whether or not simulations need to include these processes.
Junghwa Lee, Patric Seifert, Tempei Hashino, Maximilian Maahn, Fabian Senf, and Oswald Knoth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1887, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Spectral-bin model simulations of an idealized supercooled stratiform cloud were performed with the AMPS model for variable CCN and INP concentrations. We performed radar forward simulations with PAMTRA to transfer the simulations into radar observational space. The derived radar reflectivity factors were compared to observational studies of stratiform mixed-phase clouds. These studies report a similar response of the radar reflectivity factor to aerosol perturbations as we found in our study.
Guanyu Liu, Jing Li, and Tong Ying
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9217–9228, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9217-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9217-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Fires in Australia are positively correlated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the correlation between ENSO and the Australian Fire Weather Index (FWI) increases from 0.17 to 0.70 when the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) shifts from a negative to positive phase. This is explained by the teleconnection effect through which the warmer AMO generates Rossby wave trains and results in high pressures and a weather condition conducive to wildfires.
Zhiqiang Zhang, Ying Li, Haiyan Ran, Junling An, Yu Qu, Wei Zhou, Weiqi Xu, Weiwei Hu, Hongbin Xie, Zifa Wang, Yele Sun, and Manabu Shiraiwa
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1444, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Secondary organic aerosols (SOA) can exist in liquid, semi-solid or amorphous solid states, which are rarely accounted for in current chemical transport models. We predict the phase state of SOA particles over China and find that in the northwestern China SOA particles are mostly highly viscous or glassy solid. Our results indicate that the particle phase state should be considered in SOA formation in chemical transport models for more accurate prediction of SOA mass concentrations.
Leighton A. Regayre, Lucia Deaconu, Daniel P. Grosvenor, David M. H. Sexton, Christopher Symonds, Tom Langton, Duncan Watson-Paris, Jane P. Mulcahy, Kirsty J. Pringle, Mark Richardson, Jill S. Johnson, John W. Rostron, Hamish Gordon, Grenville Lister, Philip Stier, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8749–8768, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8749-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol forcing of Earth’s energy balance has persisted as a major cause of uncertainty in climate simulations over generations of climate model development. We show that structural deficiencies in a climate model are exposed by comprehensively exploring parametric uncertainty and that these deficiencies limit how much the model uncertainty can be reduced through observational constraint. This provides a future pathway towards building models with greater physical realism and lower uncertainty.
Chenwei Fang, Jim M. Haywood, Ju Liang, Ben T. Johnson, Ying Chen, and Bin Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8341–8368, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8341-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8341-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The responses of Asian summer monsoon duration and intensity to air pollution mitigation are identified given the net-zero future. We show that reducing scattering aerosols makes the rainy season longer and stronger across South Asia and East Asia but that absorbing aerosol reduction has the opposite effect. Our results hint at distinct monsoon responses to emission controls that target different aerosols.
Yue Peng, Hong Wang, Xiaoye Zhang, Zhaodong Liu, Wenjie Zhang, Siting Li, Chen Han, and Huizheng Che
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8325–8339, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8325-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8325-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study demonstrates a strong link between local circulation, aerosol–radiation interaction (ARI), and haze pollution. Under the weak weather-scale systems, the typical local circulation driven by mountainous topography is the main cause of pollutant distribution in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, and the ARI mechanism amplifies this influence of local circulation on pollutants, making haze pollution aggravated by the superposition of both.
Cited articles
Andrews, T., Forster, P. M., Boucher, O., Bellouin, N., and Jones, A.: Precipitation, radiative forcing and global temperature change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043991, 2010.
Aquila, V., Garfinkel, C. I., Newman, P. A., Oman, L. D., and Waugh, D. W.: Modifications of the quasi-biennial oscillation by a geoengineering perturbation of the stratospheric aerosol layer, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1738–1744, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058818, 2014.
Åström, K. J. and Murray, R. M.: Analysis and Design of Feedback Systems, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, USA, 2008.
Bala, G., Caldeira, K., and Nemani, R.: Fast versus slow response in climate change: implications for the global hydrological cycle, Clim. Dynam., 35, 423–434, 2010.
Bouttes, N., Good, P., Gregory, J. M., and Lowe, J. A.: Nonlinearity of ocean heat uptake during warming and cooling in the FAMOUS climate model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 2409–2416, 2015.
Caldeira, K. and Myhrvold, N.: Projections of the pace of warming following an abrupt increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 034039, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034039, 2013.
Cao, L., Bala, G., Zheng, M., and Caldeira, K.: Fast and slow climate responses to CO2 and solar forcing: A linear multivariate regression model characterizing transient climate change, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 12037–12053, 2015.
Castruccio, S., McInerney, D. J., Stein, M. L., Crouch, F. L., Jacob, R. L., and Moyer, E. J.: Statistical Emulation of Climate Model Projections Based on Precomputed GCM Runs, J. Climate, 27, 1829–1844, 2014.
Collins, M., Knutti, R., Arblaster, J., Dufresne, J.-L., Fichefet, T., Friedlingstein, P., Gao, X., Gutowski, W., Johns, T., Krinner, G., Shongwe, M., Tebaldi, C., Weaver, A., and Wehner, M.: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
Ferraro, A. J., Charlton-Perez, A. J., and Highwood, E. J.: Stratospheric dynamics and midlatitude jets under geoengineering with space mirrors and sulfate and titania aerosols, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 414–429, 2015.
Frieler, K., Meinshausen, M., Mengel, M., Braun, N., and Hare, W.: A scaling approach to probabilistic assessment of regional climate change, J. Climate, 25, 3117–3144, 2012.
Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP): GeoMIP simulations, Registry of Research Data Repositories, https://doi.org/10.17616/R3X64R, 2012.
Heckendorn, P., Weisenstein, D., Fueglistaler, S., Luo, B. P., Rozanov, E., Schraner, M., Thomason, L. W., and Peter, T.: The impact of geoengineering aerosols on stratospheric temperature and ozone, Environ. Res. Lett., 4, 045108, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045108, 2009.
Herger, N., Sanderson, B. M., and Knutti, R.: Improved pattern scaling approaches for the use in climate impact studies, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 3486–3494, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063569, 2015.
Holden, P. B. and Edwards, N. R.: Dimensionally reduced emulation of an AOGCM for application to integrated assessment modelling, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L21707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045137, 2010.
Joshi, M. M., Turner, A. G., and Hope, C.: The use of land-sea warming contrast under climate change to improve impact metrics, Climatic Change, 117, 951–960, 2013.
Keith, D. W. and MacMartin, D. G.: A temporary, moderate and responsive scenario for solar geoengineering, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 201–206, 2015.
Kravitz, B., Robock, A., Boucher, O., Schmidt, H., Taylor, K. E., Stenchikov, G., and Schulz, M.: The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), Atmos. Sci. Lett., 12, 162–167, 2011.
Kravitz, B., Caldeira, K., Boucher, O., Robock, A., Rasch, P. J., Alterskjær, K., Karam, D. B., Cole, J. N. S., Curry, C. L., Haywood, J. M., Irvine, P. J., Ji, D., Jones, A., Lunt, D. J., Kristjánsson, J. E., Moore, J., Niemeier, U., Schmidt, H., Schulz, M., Singh, B., Tilmes, S., Watanabe, S., Yang, S., and Yoon, J.-H.: Climate model response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), J. Geophys. Res., 118, 8320–8332, 2013.
Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G., Robock, A., Rasch, P. J., Ricke, K. L., Cole, J. N. S., Curry, C. L., Irvine, P. J., Ji, D., Keith, D. W., Kristjansson, J. E., Moore, J. C., Muri, H., Singh, B., Tilmes, S., Watanabe, S., Yang, S., and Yoon, J.-H.: A multi-model assessment of regional climate disparities caused by solar geoengineering, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 074013, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/7/074013, 2014.
Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G., Rasch, P. J., and Jarvis, A. J.: A new method of comparing forcing agents in climate models, J. Climate, 28, 8203–8218, 2015.
Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G., Wang, H., and Rasch, P. J.: Geoengineering as a design problem, Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 469–497, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-469-2016, 2016.
Long, J. C. S. and Shepherd, J. G.: The strategic value of geoengineering research, Global Environ. Chang., 1, 757–770, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5784-4_24, 2014.
MacMartin, D. G., Caldeira, K., and Keith, D. W.: Solar geoengineering to limit rates of change, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 372, 20140134, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0134, 2014.
Mitchell, T. D.: Pattern Scaling: An examination of the accuracy of the technique for describing future climates, Climatic Change, 60, 217–242, 2003.
National Academy of Sciences: Climate Intervention: Reflecting Sunlight to Cool Earth, The National Academies Press, 500 Fifth St. NW, Washington DC 20001, USA, 2015.
Neelin, J. D., Bracco, A., Luo, H., McWilliams, J. C., and Meyerson, J. E.: Considerations for parameter optimization and sensitivity in climate models, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 107, 21349–21354, 2010.
Niemeier, U. and Timmreck, C.: What is the limit of climate engineering by stratospheric injection of SO2?, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9129–9141, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9129-2015, 2015.
Ragone, F., Lucarini, V., and Lunkeit, F.: A new framework for climate sensitivity and prediction: a modelling perspective, Clim. Dynam., 46, 1459–1471, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2657-3, 2015.
Ricke, K. L., Granger Morgan, M., and Allen, M. R.: Regional climate response to solar-radiation management, Nat. Geosci., 3, 537–541, 2010.
Santer, B. D., Wigley, T. M. L., Schlesinger, M. E., and Mitchell, J. F. B.: Developing climate scenarios from equilibrium GCM results, Tech. rep., Max-Planck-Institut fur Meteorologie Report Number 47, Hamburg Germany, 1990.
Schlesinger, M. E., Malyshev, S., Rozanov, E. V., Yang, F. L., Andronova, N. G., Vries, B. D., Grubler, A., Jiang, K. J., Masui, T., Morita, T., Penner, J., Pepper, W., Sankovski, A., and Zhang, Y.: Geographical distribution of temperature change for scenarios of greenhouse gas and sulfur dioxide emissions, Technol. Forecast Soc., 65, 167–193, 2000.
Tebaldi, C. and Arblaster, J. M.: Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations, Climatic Change, 122, 459–471, 2014.
Tilmes, S., Sanderson, B. M., and O'Neill, B.: Climate impacts of geoengineering in a delayed mitigation scenario, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 8222–8229, 2016.
Short summary
Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a possible additional approach for managing risks of climate change, by reflecting some sunlight back to space. To project climate effects resulting from future choices regarding both greenhouse gas emissions and solar geoengineering, it is useful to have a computationally efficient "emulator" that approximates the behavior of more complex climate models. We present such an emulator here, and validate the underlying assumption of linearity.
Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a possible additional approach for managing risks of...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint