Articles | Volume 16, issue 24
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15789-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15789-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Dec 2016
Research article |
| 22 Dec 2016
Dynamic climate emulators for solar geoengineering
Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
Computing and Mathematical Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
Ben Kravitz
Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
Related authors
Ezra Brody, Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, and Ewa M. Bednarz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3974, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3974, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is being studied as a possible supplement to emission reduction to temporarily mitigate some of the risks associated with climate change. The latitudes at which SAI is done determine the effect on the climate. We try to find if there are combinations of latitudes that do a better job of counteracting climate change than existing strategies. We found that there are, but just how significant these improvements are depends on the amount of cooling.
Daniele Visioni, Alan Robock, Jim Haywood, Matthew Henry, Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Sarah J. Doherty, John Moore, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Olivier Boucher, Abu Syed, Temitope S. Egbebiyi, Roland Séférian, and Ilaria Quaglia
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2583–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a new experimental protocol for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). In it, we describe the details of a new simulation of sunlight reflection using the stratospheric aerosols that climate models are supposed to run, and we explain the reasons behind each choice we made when defining the protocol.
Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 191–213, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Injecting SO2 into the lower stratosphere can temporarily reduce global mean temperature and mitigate some risks associated with climate change, but injecting it at different latitudes and seasons would have different impacts. This study introduces new stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) strategies and explores the importance of the choice of SAI strategy, demonstrating that it notably affects the distribution of aerosol cloud, injection efficiency, and various surface climate impacts.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amy H. Butler, Daniele Visioni, Yan Zhang, Ben Kravitz, and Douglas G. MacMartin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13665–13684, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use a state-of-the-art Earth system model and a set of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) strategies to achieve the same level of global mean surface cooling through different combinations of location and/or timing of the injection. We demonstrate that the choice of SAI strategy can lead to contrasting impacts on stratospheric and tropospheric temperatures, circulation, and chemistry (including stratospheric ozone), thereby leading to different impacts on regional surface climate.
Matthew Henry, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Mohit Dalvi, Alice Wells, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Walker Lee, and Mari R. Tye
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13369–13385, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Solar climate interventions, such as injecting sulfur in the stratosphere, may be used to offset some of the adverse impacts of global warming. We use two independently developed Earth system models to assess the uncertainties around stratospheric sulfur injections. The injection locations and amounts are optimized to maintain the same pattern of surface temperature. While both models show reduced warming, the change in rainfall patterns (even without sulfur injections) is uncertain.
Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Walker R. Lee, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, and Douglas G. MacMartin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 663–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper constitutes Part 1 of a study performing a first systematic inter-model comparison of the atmospheric responses to stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections (SAIs) at various latitudes as simulated by three state-of-the-art Earth system models. We identify similarities and differences in the modeled aerosol burden, investigate the differences in the aerosol approaches between the models, and ultimately show the differences produced in surface climate, temperature and precipitation.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, James M. Haywood, Jadwiga Richter, Douglas G. MacMartin, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 687–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Building on Part 1 of this two-part study, we demonstrate the role of biases in climatological circulation and specific aspects of model microphysics in driving the differences in simulated sulfate distributions amongst three Earth system models. We then characterize the simulated changes in stratospheric and free-tropospheric temperatures, ozone, water vapor, and large-scale circulation, elucidating the role of the above aspects in the surface responses discussed in Part 1.
Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, David A. Bailey, Nan Rosenbloom, Brian Dobbins, Walker R. Lee, Mari Tye, and Jean-Francois Lamarque
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8221–8243, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Solar climate intervention using stratospheric aerosol injection is a proposed method of reducing global mean temperatures to reduce the worst consequences of climate change. We present a new modeling protocol aimed at simulating a plausible deployment of stratospheric aerosol injection and reproducibility of simulations using other Earth system models: Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar climate intervention on the Earth system with stratospheric aerosol injection (ARISE-SAI).
Daniele Visioni, Simone Tilmes, Charles Bardeen, Michael Mills, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, and Jadwiga H. Richter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1739–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1739-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1739-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols are simulated in a simplified way in climate models: in the model analyzed here, they are represented in every grid as described by three simple logarithmic distributions, mixing all different species together. The size can evolve when new particles are formed, particles merge together to create a larger one or particles are deposited to the surface. This approximation normally works fairly well. Here we show however that when large amounts of sulfate are simulated, there are problems.
Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 201–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Adding SO2 to the stratosphere could temporarily cool the planet by reflecting more sunlight back to space. However, adding SO2 at different latitude(s) and season(s) leads to significant differences in regional surface climate. This study shows that, to cool the planet by 1–1.5 °C, there are likely six to eight choices of injection latitude(s) and season(s) that lead to meaningfully different distributions of climate impacts.
Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Olivier Boucher, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Michou Martine, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10039–10063, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A new set of simulations is used to investigate commonalities, differences and sources of uncertainty when simulating the injection of SO2 in the stratosphere in order to mitigate the effects of climate change (solar geoengineering). The models differ in how they simulate the aerosols and how they spread around the stratosphere, resulting in differences in projected regional impacts. Overall, however, the models agree that aerosols have the potential to mitigate the warming produced by GHGs.
Nikolas O. Aksamit, Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, and George Haller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8845–8861, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8845-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8845-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
There exist robust and influential material features evolving within turbulent fluids that behave as the skeleton for fluid transport pathways. Recent developments in applied mathematics have made the identification of these time-varying structures more rigorous and insightful than ever. Using short-range wind forecasts, we detail how and why these material features can be exploited in an effort to optimize the spread of aerosols in the stratosphere for climate geoengineering.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Alan Robock, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4231–4247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates multi-model response to idealized geoengineering (high CO2 with solar reduction) across two different generations of climate models. We find that, with the exception of a few cases, the results are unchanged between the different generations. This gives us confidence that broad conclusions about the response to idealized geoengineering are robust.
Walker Lee, Douglas MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1051–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1051-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1051-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The injection of aerosols into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight could reduce global warming, but this type of
geoengineeringwould also impact other variables like precipitation and sea ice. In this study, we model various climate impacts of geoengineering on a 3-D graph to show how trying to meet one climate goal will affect other variables. We also present two computer simulations which validate our model and show that geoengineering could regulate precipitation as well as temperature.
Yangyang Xu, Lei Lin, Simone Tilmes, Katherine Dagon, Lili Xia, Chenrui Diao, Wei Cheng, Zhili Wang, Isla Simpson, and Lorna Burnell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 673–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-673-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-673-2020, 2020
Short summary
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Two geoengineering schemes to mitigate global warming, (a) capturing atmospheric CO2 and (b) injecting stratospheric sulfur gas, are compared. Based on two sets of large-ensemble model experiments, we show that sulfur injection will effectively mitigate projected terrestrial drying over the Americas, and the mitigation benefit will emerge more quickly than with carbon capture. Innovative means of sulfur injection should continue to be explored as one potential low-cost climate solution.
Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Leo van Kampenhout, Laura Muntjewerf, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Michael J. Mills, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 579–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces new geoengineering model experiments as part of a larger model intercomparison effort, using reflective particles to block some of the incoming solar radiation to reach surface temperature targets. Outcomes of these applications are contrasted based on a high greenhouse gas emission pathway and a pathway with strong mitigation and negative emissions after 2040. We compare quantities that matter for societal and ecosystem impacts between the different scenarios.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Philip J. Rasch, and Hailong Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2525–2541, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2525-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2525-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce system identification techniques to climate science wherein multiple dynamic input–output relationships can be simultaneously characterized in a single simulation. This method, involving multiple small perturbations (in space and time) of an input field while monitoring output fields to quantify responses, allows for identification of different timescales of climate response to forcing without substantially pushing the climate far away from a steady state.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Hailong Wang, and Philip J. Rasch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 469–497, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-469-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-469-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Most simulations of solar geoengineering prescribe a particular strategy and evaluate its modeled effects. Here we first choose example climate objectives and then design a strategy to meet those objectives in climate models. We show that certain objectives can be met simultaneously even in the presence of uncertainty, and the strategy for meeting those objectives can be ported to other models. This is part of a broader illustration of how uncertainties in solar geoengineering can be managed.
Ezra Brody, Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, and Ewa M. Bednarz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3974, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3974, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is being studied as a possible supplement to emission reduction to temporarily mitigate some of the risks associated with climate change. The latitudes at which SAI is done determine the effect on the climate. We try to find if there are combinations of latitudes that do a better job of counteracting climate change than existing strategies. We found that there are, but just how significant these improvements are depends on the amount of cooling.
Daniele Visioni, Alan Robock, Jim Haywood, Matthew Henry, Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Sarah J. Doherty, John Moore, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Olivier Boucher, Abu Syed, Temitope S. Egbebiyi, Roland Séférian, and Ilaria Quaglia
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2583–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a new experimental protocol for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). In it, we describe the details of a new simulation of sunlight reflection using the stratospheric aerosols that climate models are supposed to run, and we explain the reasons behind each choice we made when defining the protocol.
Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 191–213, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Injecting SO2 into the lower stratosphere can temporarily reduce global mean temperature and mitigate some risks associated with climate change, but injecting it at different latitudes and seasons would have different impacts. This study introduces new stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) strategies and explores the importance of the choice of SAI strategy, demonstrating that it notably affects the distribution of aerosol cloud, injection efficiency, and various surface climate impacts.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amy H. Butler, Daniele Visioni, Yan Zhang, Ben Kravitz, and Douglas G. MacMartin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13665–13684, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use a state-of-the-art Earth system model and a set of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) strategies to achieve the same level of global mean surface cooling through different combinations of location and/or timing of the injection. We demonstrate that the choice of SAI strategy can lead to contrasting impacts on stratospheric and tropospheric temperatures, circulation, and chemistry (including stratospheric ozone), thereby leading to different impacts on regional surface climate.
Matthew Henry, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Mohit Dalvi, Alice Wells, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Walker Lee, and Mari R. Tye
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13369–13385, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Solar climate interventions, such as injecting sulfur in the stratosphere, may be used to offset some of the adverse impacts of global warming. We use two independently developed Earth system models to assess the uncertainties around stratospheric sulfur injections. The injection locations and amounts are optimized to maintain the same pattern of surface temperature. While both models show reduced warming, the change in rainfall patterns (even without sulfur injections) is uncertain.
Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Alan Robock, Simone Tilmes, Jim Haywood, Olivier Boucher, Mark Lawrence, Peter Irvine, Ulrike Niemeier, Lili Xia, Gabriel Chiodo, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, John C. Moore, and Helene Muri
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5149–5176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Geoengineering indicates methods aiming to reduce the temperature of the planet by means of reflecting back a part of the incoming radiation before it reaches the surface or allowing more of the planetary radiation to escape into space. It aims to produce modelling experiments that are easy to reproduce and compare with different climate models, in order to understand the potential impacts of these techniques. Here we assess its past successes and failures and talk about its future.
Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Walker R. Lee, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, and Douglas G. MacMartin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 663–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper constitutes Part 1 of a study performing a first systematic inter-model comparison of the atmospheric responses to stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections (SAIs) at various latitudes as simulated by three state-of-the-art Earth system models. We identify similarities and differences in the modeled aerosol burden, investigate the differences in the aerosol approaches between the models, and ultimately show the differences produced in surface climate, temperature and precipitation.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, James M. Haywood, Jadwiga Richter, Douglas G. MacMartin, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 687–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Building on Part 1 of this two-part study, we demonstrate the role of biases in climatological circulation and specific aspects of model microphysics in driving the differences in simulated sulfate distributions amongst three Earth system models. We then characterize the simulated changes in stratospheric and free-tropospheric temperatures, ozone, water vapor, and large-scale circulation, elucidating the role of the above aspects in the surface responses discussed in Part 1.
Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, David A. Bailey, Nan Rosenbloom, Brian Dobbins, Walker R. Lee, Mari Tye, and Jean-Francois Lamarque
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8221–8243, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Solar climate intervention using stratospheric aerosol injection is a proposed method of reducing global mean temperatures to reduce the worst consequences of climate change. We present a new modeling protocol aimed at simulating a plausible deployment of stratospheric aerosol injection and reproducibility of simulations using other Earth system models: Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar climate intervention on the Earth system with stratospheric aerosol injection (ARISE-SAI).
Mari R. Tye, Katherine Dagon, Maria J. Molina, Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, and Simone Tilmes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1233–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1233-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examined the potential effect of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on extreme temperature and precipitation. SAI may cause daytime temperatures to cool but nighttime to warm. Daytime cooling may occur in all seasons across the globe, with the largest decreases in summer. In contrast, nighttime warming may be greatest at high latitudes in winter. SAI may reduce the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall. The combined changes may exacerbate drying over parts of the global south.
Ilaria Quaglia, Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, and Ben Kravitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5757–5773, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5757-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5757-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Carbonyl sulfide is a gas that mixes very well in the atmosphere and can reach the stratosphere, where it reacts with sunlight and produces aerosol. Here we propose that, by increasing surface fluxes by an order of magnitude, the number of stratospheric aerosols produced may be enough to partially offset the warming produced by greenhouse gases. We explore what effect this would have on the atmospheric composition.
Huiying Ren, Erol Cromwell, Ben Kravitz, and Xingyuan Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1727–1743, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1727-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1727-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We used a deep learning method called long short-term memory (LSTM) to fill gaps in data collected by hydrologic monitoring networks. LSTM accounted for correlations in space and time and nonlinear trends in data. Compared to a traditional regression-based time-series method, LSTM performed comparably when filling gaps in data with smooth patterns, while it better captured highly dynamic patterns in data. Capturing such dynamics is critical for understanding dynamic complex system behaviors.
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Adam A. Scaife, Olivier Boucher, Matthew Henry, Ben Kravitz, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2999–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations by six Earth-system models of geoengineering by introducing sulfuric acid aerosols into the tropical stratosphere are compared. A robust impact on the northern wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation is found, exacerbating precipitation reduction over parts of southern Europe. In contrast, the models show no consistency with regard to impacts on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, although results do indicate a risk that the oscillation could become locked into a permanent westerly phase.
Daniele Visioni, Simone Tilmes, Charles Bardeen, Michael Mills, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, and Jadwiga H. Richter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1739–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1739-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1739-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols are simulated in a simplified way in climate models: in the model analyzed here, they are represented in every grid as described by three simple logarithmic distributions, mixing all different species together. The size can evolve when new particles are formed, particles merge together to create a larger one or particles are deposited to the surface. This approximation normally works fairly well. Here we show however that when large amounts of sulfate are simulated, there are problems.
Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 201–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Adding SO2 to the stratosphere could temporarily cool the planet by reflecting more sunlight back to space. However, adding SO2 at different latitude(s) and season(s) leads to significant differences in regional surface climate. This study shows that, to cool the planet by 1–1.5 °C, there are likely six to eight choices of injection latitude(s) and season(s) that lead to meaningfully different distributions of climate impacts.
Dawn L. Woodard, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Ben Kravitz, Corinne Hartin, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4751–4767, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We have added a representation of the permafrost carbon feedback to the simple, open-source global carbon–climate model Hector and calibrated the results to be consistent with historical data and Earth system model projections. Our results closely match previous work, estimating around 0.2 °C of warming from permafrost this century. This capability will be useful to explore uncertainties in this feedback and for coupling with integrated assessment models for policy and economic analysis.
Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Olivier Boucher, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Michou Martine, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10039–10063, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A new set of simulations is used to investigate commonalities, differences and sources of uncertainty when simulating the injection of SO2 in the stratosphere in order to mitigate the effects of climate change (solar geoengineering). The models differ in how they simulate the aerosols and how they spread around the stratosphere, resulting in differences in projected regional impacts. Overall, however, the models agree that aerosols have the potential to mitigate the warming produced by GHGs.
Nikolas O. Aksamit, Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, and George Haller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8845–8861, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8845-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8845-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
There exist robust and influential material features evolving within turbulent fluids that behave as the skeleton for fluid transport pathways. Recent developments in applied mathematics have made the identification of these time-varying structures more rigorous and insightful than ever. Using short-range wind forecasts, we detail how and why these material features can be exploited in an effort to optimize the spread of aerosols in the stratosphere for climate geoengineering.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Alan Robock, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4231–4247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates multi-model response to idealized geoengineering (high CO2 with solar reduction) across two different generations of climate models. We find that, with the exception of a few cases, the results are unchanged between the different generations. This gives us confidence that broad conclusions about the response to idealized geoengineering are robust.
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Anthony C. Jones, Simone Tilmes, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1287–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1287-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Two different methods of simulating a geoengineering scenario are compared using data from two different Earth system models. One method is very idealised while the other includes details of a plausible mechanism. The results from both models agree that the idealised approach does not capture an impact found when detailed modelling is included, namely that geoengineering induces a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation which leads to warmer, wetter winters in northern Europe.
Walker Lee, Douglas MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1051–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1051-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1051-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The injection of aerosols into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight could reduce global warming, but this type of
geoengineeringwould also impact other variables like precipitation and sea ice. In this study, we model various climate impacts of geoengineering on a 3-D graph to show how trying to meet one climate goal will affect other variables. We also present two computer simulations which validate our model and show that geoengineering could regulate precipitation as well as temperature.
Bethany Sutherland, Ben Kravitz, Philip J. Rasch, and Hailong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-228, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-228, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
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Through a cascade of physical mechanisms, a change in one location can trigger a response in a different location. These responses and the mechanisms that cause them are difficult to detect. Here we propose a method, using global climate models, to detect possible relationships between changes in one region and responses throughout the globe caused by that change. A change in the Pacific ocean is used as a test case to determine the effectiveness of the method.
Yangyang Xu, Lei Lin, Simone Tilmes, Katherine Dagon, Lili Xia, Chenrui Diao, Wei Cheng, Zhili Wang, Isla Simpson, and Lorna Burnell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 673–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-673-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-673-2020, 2020
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Two geoengineering schemes to mitigate global warming, (a) capturing atmospheric CO2 and (b) injecting stratospheric sulfur gas, are compared. Based on two sets of large-ensemble model experiments, we show that sulfur injection will effectively mitigate projected terrestrial drying over the Americas, and the mitigation benefit will emerge more quickly than with carbon capture. Innovative means of sulfur injection should continue to be explored as one potential low-cost climate solution.
Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Leo van Kampenhout, Laura Muntjewerf, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Michael J. Mills, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 579–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, 2020
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This paper introduces new geoengineering model experiments as part of a larger model intercomparison effort, using reflective particles to block some of the incoming solar radiation to reach surface temperature targets. Outcomes of these applications are contrasted based on a high greenhouse gas emission pathway and a pathway with strong mitigation and negative emissions after 2040. We compare quantities that matter for societal and ecosystem impacts between the different scenarios.
Theodore Weber, Austin Corotan, Brian Hutchinson, Ben Kravitz, and Robert Link
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2303–2317, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2303-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2303-2020, 2020
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Climate model emulators can save computer time but are less accurate than full climate models. We use neural networks to build emulators of precipitation, trained on existing climate model runs. By doing so, we can capture nonlinearities and how the past state of a model (to some degree) shapes the future state. Our emulator outperforms a persistence forecast of precipitation.
Robert Link, Abigail Snyder, Cary Lynch, Corinne Hartin, Ben Kravitz, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1477–1489, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1477-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1477-2019, 2019
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Earth system models (ESMs) produce the highest-quality future climate data available, but they are costly to run, so only a few runs from each model are publicly available. What is needed are emulators that tell us what would have happened, if we had been able to perform as many ESM runs as we might have liked. Much of the existing work on emulators has focused on deterministic projections of average values. Here we present a way to imbue emulators with the variability seen in ESM runs.
Christopher G. Fletcher, Ben Kravitz, and Bakr Badawy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17529–17543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17529-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17529-2018, 2018
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The most important number for future climate projections is Earth's climate sensitivity (CS), or how much warming will result from increased carbon dioxide. We cannot know the true CS, and estimates of CS from climate models have a wide range. This study identifies the major factors that control this range, and we show that the choice of methods used in creating a climate model are three times more important than fine-tuning the details of the model after it is created.
Ben Kravitz, Philip J. Rasch, Hailong Wang, Alan Robock, Corey Gabriel, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Duoying Ji, Andy Jones, Andrew Lenton, John C. Moore, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Steven Phipps, Hauke Schmidt, Shingo Watanabe, Shuting Yang, and Jin-Ho Yoon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13097–13113, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13097-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13097-2018, 2018
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Marine cloud brightening has been proposed as a means of geoengineering/climate intervention, or deliberately altering the climate system to offset anthropogenic climate change. In idealized simulations that highlight contrasts between land and ocean, we find that the globe warms, including the ocean due to transport of heat from land. This study reinforces that no net energy input into the Earth system does not mean that temperature will necessarily remain unchanged.
Duoying Ji, Songsong Fang, Charles L. Curry, Hiroki Kashimura, Shingo Watanabe, Jason N. S. Cole, Andrew Lenton, Helene Muri, Ben Kravitz, and John C. Moore
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10133–10156, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10133-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10133-2018, 2018
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We examine extreme temperature and precipitation under climate-model-simulated solar dimming and stratospheric aerosol injection geoengineering schemes. Both types of geoengineering lead to lower minimum temperatures at higher latitudes and greater cooling of minimum temperatures and maximum temperatures over land compared with oceans. Stratospheric aerosol injection is more effective in reducing tropical extreme precipitation, while solar dimming is more effective over extra-tropical regions.
David P. Keller, Andrew Lenton, Vivian Scott, Naomi E. Vaughan, Nico Bauer, Duoying Ji, Chris D. Jones, Ben Kravitz, Helene Muri, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1133–1160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1133-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1133-2018, 2018
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There is little consensus on the impacts and efficacy of proposed carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods as a potential means of mitigating climate change. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDR-MIP) has been initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDR-MIP experiments.
Camilla W. Stjern, Helene Muri, Lars Ahlm, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Duoying Ji, Andy Jones, Jim Haywood, Ben Kravitz, Andrew Lenton, John C. Moore, Ulrike Niemeier, Steven J. Phipps, Hauke Schmidt, Shingo Watanabe, and Jón Egill Kristjánsson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 621–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-621-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-621-2018, 2018
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Marine cloud brightening (MCB) has been proposed to help limit global warming. We present here the first multi-model assessment of idealized MCB simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. While all models predict a global cooling as intended, there is considerable spread between the models both in terms of radiative forcing and the climate response, largely linked to the substantial differences in the models' representation of clouds.
Lars Ahlm, Andy Jones, Camilla W. Stjern, Helene Muri, Ben Kravitz, and Jón Egill Kristjánsson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13071–13087, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13071-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13071-2017, 2017
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We present results from coordinated simulations with three Earth system models focusing on the response of Earth’s radiation balance to the injection of sea salt particles. We find that in most regions the effective radiative forcing by the injected particles is equally large in cloudy and clear-sky conditions, suggesting a more important role of the aerosol direct effect in sea spray climate engineering than previously thought.
Cary Lynch, Corinne Hartin, Ben Bond-Lamberty, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 281–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-281-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-281-2017, 2017
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Pattern scaling climate model output is a computationally efficient way to produce a large amount of data for purposes of uncertainty quantification. Using a multi-model ensemble we explore pattern scaling methodologies across two future forcing scenarios. We find that the simple least squares approach to pattern scaling produces a close approximation of actual model output, and we use this as a justification for the creation of an open-access pattern library at multiple time increments.
Ben Kravitz, Cary Lynch, Corinne Hartin, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1889–1902, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1889-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1889-2017, 2017
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Pattern scaling is a way of approximating regional changes without needing to run a full, complex global climate model. We compare two methods of pattern scaling for precipitation and evaluate which methods is
betterin particular circumstances. We also decompose precipitation into a CO2 portion and a non-CO2 portion. The methodologies discussed in this paper can help provide precipitation fields for other models for a wide variety of scenarios of future climate change.
Hiroki Kashimura, Manabu Abe, Shingo Watanabe, Takashi Sekiya, Duoying Ji, John C. Moore, Jason N. S. Cole, and Ben Kravitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3339–3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3339-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3339-2017, 2017
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This study analyses shortwave radiation (SW) in the G4 experiment of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. G4 involves stratospheric injection of 5 Tg yr−1 of SO2 against the RCP4.5 scenario. The global mean forcing of the sulphate geoengineering has an inter-model variablity of −3.6 to −1.6 W m−2, implying a high uncertainty in modelled processes of sulfate aerosols. Changes in water vapour and cloud amounts due to the SO2 injection weaken the forcing at the surface by around 50 %.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Philip J. Rasch, and Hailong Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2525–2541, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2525-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2525-2017, 2017
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We introduce system identification techniques to climate science wherein multiple dynamic input–output relationships can be simultaneously characterized in a single simulation. This method, involving multiple small perturbations (in space and time) of an input field while monitoring output fields to quantify responses, allows for identification of different timescales of climate response to forcing without substantially pushing the climate far away from a steady state.
Corey J. Gabriel, Alan Robock, Lili Xia, Brian Zambri, and Ben Kravitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 595–613, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-595-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-595-2017, 2017
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The National Center for Atmospheric Research CESM-CAM4-CHEM global climate model was modified to simulate a scheme in which the albedo of the ocean surface is raised over the subtropical ocean gyres in the Southern Hemisphere. Global mean surface temperature in G4Foam is 0.6K lower than RCP6.0, with statistically significant cooling relative to RCP6.0 south of 30° N and an increase in rainfall over land, most pronouncedly during the JJA season, relative to both G4SSA and RCP6.0.
Cary Lynch, Corinne Hartin, Ben Bond-Lamberty, and Ben Kravitz
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-170, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-170, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Pattern scaling is used to explore uncertainty in future forcing scenarios and assess local climate sensitivity to global temperature change. This paper examines the two dominant pattern scaling methods using a multi-model ensemble with two future socio-economic storylines. We find that high latitudes show the strongest sensitivity to global temperature change and that the simple least squared regression approach to generation of patterns is a better fit to projected global temperature.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Hailong Wang, and Philip J. Rasch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 469–497, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-469-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-469-2016, 2016
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Most simulations of solar geoengineering prescribe a particular strategy and evaluate its modeled effects. Here we first choose example climate objectives and then design a strategy to meet those objectives in climate models. We show that certain objectives can be met simultaneously even in the presence of uncertainty, and the strategy for meeting those objectives can be ported to other models. This is part of a broader illustration of how uncertainties in solar geoengineering can be managed.
B. Kravitz, A. Robock, S. Tilmes, O. Boucher, J. M. English, P. J. Irvine, A. Jones, M. G. Lawrence, M. MacCracken, H. Muri, J. C. Moore, U. Niemeier, S. J. Phipps, J. Sillmann, T. Storelvmo, H. Wang, and S. Watanabe
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3379–3392, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3379-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3379-2015, 2015
S. Tilmes, M. J. Mills, U. Niemeier, H. Schmidt, A. Robock, B. Kravitz, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Pitari, and J. M. English
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 43–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-43-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-43-2015, 2015
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A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment “G4 specified stratospheric aerosols” (G4SSA) is proposed to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on atmosphere, chemistry, dynamics, climate, and the environment. In contrast to the earlier G4 GeoMIP experiment, which requires an emission of sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the model, a prescribed aerosol forcing file is provided to the community, to be consistently applied to future model experiments.
Related subject area
Subject: Aerosols | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Gaps in our understanding of ice-nucleating particle sources exposed by global simulation of the UK Earth System Model
The role of interfacial tension in the size-dependent phase separation of atmospheric aerosol particles
Warming effects of reduced sulfur emissions from shipping
The key role of atmospheric absorption in the Asian summer monsoon response to dust emissions in CMIP6 models
Multi-model effective radiative forcing of the 2020 sulfur cap for shipping
Representation of iron aerosol size distributions of anthropogenic emissions is critical in evaluating atmospheric soluble iron input to the ocean
Revealing dominant patterns of aerosol regimes in the lower troposphere and their evolution from preindustrial times to the future in global climate model simulations
Improving estimation of a record-breaking east Asian dust storm emission with lagged aerosol Ångström exponent observations
Impact of biomass burning aerosols (BBA) on the tropical African climate in an ocean–atmosphere–aerosol coupled climate model
Retrieval of refractive index and water content for the coating materials of aged black carbon aerosol based on optical properties: a theoretical analysis
Predicting hygroscopic growth of organosulfur aerosol particles using COSMOtherm
Dust aerosol from the Aralkum Desert influences the radiation budget and atmospheric dynamics of Central Asia
Global modeling of aerosol nucleation with a semi-explicit chemical mechanism for highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs)
Synergistic effects of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on dust activities in North China during the following spring
Aerosol composition, air quality, and boundary layer dynamics in the urban background of Stuttgart in winter
Measurement report: Source attribution and estimation of black carbon levels in an urban hotspot of the central Po Valley – an integrated approach combining high-resolution dispersion modelling and micro-aethalometers
Quasi-weekly oscillation of regional PM2.5 transport over China driven by the synoptic-scale disturbance of East Asian Winter Monsoon circulation
Microphysical modelling of aerosol scavenging by different types of clouds: description and validation of the approach
Insights into the sources of ultrafine particle numbers at six European urban sites obtained by investigating COVID-19 lockdowns
In-plume and out-of-plume analysis of aerosol–cloud interactions derived from the 2014–2015 Holuhraun volcanic eruption
Impacts of atmospheric circulation patterns and cloud inhibition on aerosol radiative effect and boundary layer structure during winter air pollution in Sichuan Basin, China
Steady-State Mixing State of Black Carbon Aerosols from a Particle-Resolved Model
The effectiveness of solar radiation management for marine cloud brightening geoengineering by fine sea spray in worldwide different climatic regions
Accounting for Black Carbon Aging Process in a Two-way Coupled Meteorology – Air Quality Model
Investigating the sign of stratocumulus adjustments to aerosols in the ICON global storm-resolving model
A model study investigating the sensitivity of aerosol forcing to the volatilities of semi-volatile organic compounds
Characterization of Brown Carbon absorption in different European environments through source contribution analysis
Spatial and temporal evolution of future atmospheric reactive nitrogen deposition in China under different climate change mitigation strategies
Distinctive dust weather intensities in North China resulted from two types of atmospheric circulation anomalies
Decomposing the effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols based on CMIP6 Earth system models
Modeling impacts of dust mineralogy on fast climate response
Uncertainties in laboratory-measured shortwave refractive indices of mineral dust aerosols and derived optical properties: a theoretical assessment
Diagnosing uncertainties in global biomass burning emission inventories and their impact on modeled air pollutants
Solar radiation estimation in West Africa: impact of dust conditions during 2021 dry season
Role of atmospheric aerosols in severe winter fog over the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India: a case study
Long-term variability in black carbon emissions constrained by gap-filled absorption aerosol optical depth and associated premature mortality in China
Intercomparison of aerosol optical depths from four reanalyses and their multi-reanalysis consensus
Biomass Burning Emissions Analysis Based on MODIS AOD and AeroCom Multi-Model Simulations
Global aviation contrail climate effects from 2019 to 2021
Rapid iodine oxoacid nucleation enhanced by dimethylamine in broad marine regions
Simulations of the impact of cloud condensation nuclei and ice-nucleating particles perturbations on the microphysics and radar reflectivity factor of stratiform mixed-phase clouds
Aerosols in the central Arctic cryosphere: satellite and model integrated insights during Arctic spring and summer
Observationally constrained regional variations of shortwave absorption by iron oxides emphasize the cooling effect of dust
Droplet collection efficiencies inferred from satellite retrievals constrain effective radiative forcing of aerosol–cloud interactions
Global aerosol-type classification using a new hybrid algorithm and Aerosol Robotic Network data
Tropospheric aerosols over the western North Atlantic Ocean during the winter and summer campaigns of ACTIVATE 2020: Life cycle, transport, and distribution
Simulated phase state and viscosity of secondary organic aerosols over China
Comparing the simulated influence of biomass burning plumes on low-level clouds over the southeastern Atlantic under varying smoke conditions
A global dust emission dataset for estimating dust radiative forcings in climate models
Improved simulations of biomass burning aerosol optical properties and lifetimes in the NASA GEOS Model during the ORACLES-I campaign
Ross J. Herbert, Alberto Sanchez-Marroquin, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Kirsty J. Pringle, Stephen R. Arnold, Benjamin J. Murray, and Kenneth S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 291–325, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-291-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-291-2025, 2025
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Aerosol particles that help form ice in clouds vary in number and type around the world and with time. However, in many weather and climate models cloud ice is not linked to aerosols that are known to nucleate ice. Here we report the first steps towards representing ice-nucleating particles within the UK Earth System Model. We conclude that in addition to ice nucleation by sea spray and mineral components of soil dust, we also need to represent ice nucleation by the organic components of soils.
Ryan Schmedding and Andreas Zuend
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 327–346, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-327-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-327-2025, 2025
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Four different approaches for computing the interfacial tension between liquid phases in aerosol particles were tested for particles with diameters from 10 nm to more than 5 μm. Antonov's rule led to the strongest reductions in the onset relative humidity of liquid–liquid phase separation and reproduced measured interfacial tensions for highly immiscible systems. A modified form of the Butler equation was able to best reproduce measured interfacial tensions in more miscible systems.
Masaru Yoshioka, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Ben B. B. Booth, Colin P. Morice, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13681–13692, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13681-2024, 2024
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A 2020 regulation has reduced sulfur emissions from shipping by about 80 %, leading to a decrease in atmospheric aerosols that have a cooling effect primarily by affecting cloud properties and amounts. Our climate model simulations predict a global temperature increase of 0.04 K over the next 3 decades as a result, which could contribute to surpassing the Paris Agreement's 1.5 °C target. Reduced aerosols may have also contributed to the recent temperature spikes.
Alcide Zhao, Laura J. Wilcox, and Claire L. Ryder
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13385–13402, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13385-2024, 2024
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Climate models include desert dust aerosols, which cause atmospheric heating and can change circulation patterns. We assess the effect of dust on the Indian and east Asian summer monsoons through multi-model experiments isolating the effect of dust in current climate models for the first time. Dust atmospheric heating results in a southward shift of western Pacific equatorial rainfall and an enhanced Indian summer monsoon. This shows the importance of accurate dust representation in models.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Rachael Byrom, Øivind Hodnebrog, Caroline Jouan, and Gunnar Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13361–13370, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13361-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13361-2024, 2024
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In 2020, new regulations by the International Maritime Organization regarding sulfur emissions came into force, reducing emissions of SO2 from the shipping sector by approximately 80 %. In this study, we use multiple models to calculate how much the Earth energy balance changed due to the emission reduction or the so-called effective radiative forcing. The calculated effective radiative forcing is weak, comparable to the effect of the increase in CO2 over the last 2 to 3 years.
Mingxu Liu, Hitoshi Matsui, Douglas S. Hamilton, Sagar D. Rathod, Kara D. Lamb, and Natalie M. Mahowald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13115–13127, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13115-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric aerosol deposition provides bioavailable iron to promote marine primary production, yet the estimates of its fluxes remain highly uncertain. This study, by performing global aerosol simulations, demonstrates that iron-containing particle size upon emission is a critical factor in regulating soluble iron input to open oceans. Further observational constraints on this are needed to reduce modeling uncertainties.
Jingmin Li, Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, Christof G. Beer, Ulrike Burkhardt, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12727–12747, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12727-2024, 2024
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Aiming to understand underlying patterns and trends in aerosols, we characterize the spatial patterns and long-term evolution of lower tropospheric aerosols by clustering multiple aerosol properties from preindustrial times to the year 2050 under three Shared
Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. The results provide a clear and condensed picture of the spatial extent and distribution of aerosols for different time periods and emission scenarios.
Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. The results provide a clear and condensed picture of the spatial extent and distribution of aerosols for different time periods and emission scenarios.
Yueming Cheng, Tie Dai, Junji Cao, Daisuke Goto, Jianbing Jin, Teruyuki Nakajima, and Guangyu Shi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12643–12659, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12643-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12643-2024, 2024
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In March 2021, east Asia experienced an outbreak of severe dust storms after an absence of 1.5 decades. Here, we innovatively used the time-lagged ground-based aerosol size information with the fixed-lag ensemble Kalman smoother to optimize dust emission and reproduce the dust storm. This work is valuable for not only the quantification of health damage, aviation risks, and profound impacts on the Earth's system but also revealing the climatic driving force and the process of desertification.
Marc Mallet, Aurore Voldoire, Fabien Solmon, Pierre Nabat, Thomas Drugé, and Romain Roehrig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12509–12535, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12509-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12509-2024, 2024
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This study investigates the interactions between smoke aerosols and climate in tropical Africa using a coupled ocean–atmosphere–aerosol climate model. The work shows that smoke plumes have a significant impact by increasing the low-cloud fraction, decreasing the ocean and continental surface temperature and reducing the precipitation of coastal western Africa. It also highlights the role of the ocean temperature response and its feedbacks for the September–November season.
Jia Liu, Cancan Zhu, Donghui Zhou, and Jinbao Han
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12341–12354, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12341-2024, 2024
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The hydrophilic coatings of aged black carbon (BC) particles absorb moisture during the hygroscopic growth process, but it is difficult to characterize how much water is absorbed under different relative humidities (RHs). In this study, we propose a method to obtain the water content in the coatings based on the equivalent complex refractive index retrieved from optical properties. This method is verified from a theoretical perspective, and it performs well for thickly coated BC at high RHs.
Zijun Li, Angela Buchholz, and Noora Hyttinen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11717–11725, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11717-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11717-2024, 2024
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Evaluating organosulfur (OS) hygroscopicity is important for assessing aerosol–cloud climate interactions in the post-fossil-fuel future, when SO2 emissions decrease and OS compounds become increasingly important. Here a state-of-the-art quantum-chemistry-based method was used to predict the hygroscopic growth factors (HGFs) of a group of atmospherically relevant OS compounds and their mixtures with (NH4)2SO4. A good agreement was observed between their model-estimated and experimental HGFs.
Jamie R. Banks, Bernd Heinold, and Kerstin Schepanski
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11451–11475, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11451-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11451-2024, 2024
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The Aralkum is a new desert in Central Asia formed by the desiccation of the Aral Sea. This has created a source of atmospheric dust, with implications for the balance of solar and thermal radiation. Simulating these effects using a dust transport model, we find that Aralkum dust adds radiative cooling effects to the surface and atmosphere on average but also adds heating events. Increases in surface pressure due to Aralkum dust strengthen the Siberian High and weaken the summer Asian heat low.
Xinyue Shao, Minghuai Wang, Xinyi Dong, Yaman Liu, Wenxiang Shen, Stephen R. Arnold, Leighton A. Regayre, Meinrat O. Andreae, Mira L. Pöhlker, Duseong S. Jo, Man Yue, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11365–11389, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11365-2024, 2024
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Highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs) play an important role in atmospheric new particle formation (NPF). By semi-explicitly coupling the chemical mechanism of HOMs and a comprehensive nucleation scheme in a global climate model, the updated model shows better agreement with measurements of nucleation rate, growth rate, and NPF event frequency. Our results reveal that HOM-driven NPF leads to a considerable increase in particle and cloud condensation nuclei burden globally.
Falei Xu, Shuang Wang, Yan Li, and Juan Feng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10689–10705, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10689-2024, 2024
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This study examines how the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affect dust activities in North China during the following spring. The results show that the NAO and ENSO, particularly in their negative phases, greatly influence dust activities. When both are negative, their combined effect on dust activities is even greater. This research highlights the importance of these climate patterns in predicting spring dust activities in North China.
Hengheng Zhang, Wei Huang, Xiaoli Shen, Ramakrishna Ramisetty, Junwei Song, Olga Kiseleva, Christopher Claus Holst, Basit Khan, Thomas Leisner, and Harald Saathoff
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10617–10637, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10617-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10617-2024, 2024
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Our study unravels how stagnant winter conditions elevate aerosol levels in Stuttgart. Cloud cover at night plays a pivotal role, impacting morning air quality. Validating a key model, our findings aid accurate air quality predictions, crucial for effective pollution mitigation in urban areas.
Giorgio Veratti, Alessandro Bigi, Michele Stortini, Sergio Teggi, and Grazia Ghermandi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10475–10512, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10475-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10475-2024, 2024
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In a study of two consecutive winter seasons, we used measurements and modelling tools to identify the levels and sources of black carbon pollution in a medium-sized urban area of the Po Valley, Italy. Our findings show that biomass burning and traffic-related emissions (especially from Euro 4 diesel cars) significantly contribute to BC concentrations. This research offers crucial insights for policymakers and urban planners aiming to improve air quality in cities.
Yongqing Bai, Tianliang Zhao, Kai Meng, Yue Zhou, Jie Xiong, Xiaoyun Sun, Lijuan Shen, Yanyu Yue, Yan Zhu, Weiyang Hu, and Jingyan Yao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2493, 2024
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We proposed a composite statistical method to discern the long-term moving spatial distribution with Quasi-weekly oscillation (QWO) of regional PM2.5 transport over China. The QWO of regional PM2.5 transport is constrained by synoptic-scale disturbances of the East Asian Winter Monsoon circulation with the periodic activities of Siberian high, providing a new insight into the understanding of regional pollutant transport with meteorological drivers in atmospheric environment changes.
Pascal Lemaitre, Arnaud Quérel, Alexis Dépée, Alice Guerra Devigne, Marie Monier, Thibault Hiron, Chloé Soto Minguez, Daniel Hardy, and Andrea Flossmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9713–9732, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9713-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9713-2024, 2024
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A new in-cloud scavenging scheme is proposed. It is based on a microphysical model of cloud formation and may be applied to long-distance atmospheric transport models (> 100 km) and climatic models. This model is applied to the two most extreme precipitating cloud types in terms of both relative humidity and vertical extension: cumulonimbus and stratus.
Alex Rowell, James Brean, David C. S. Beddows, Tuukka Petäjä, Máté Vörösmarty, Imre Salma, Jarkko V. Niemi, Hanna E. Manninen, Dominik van Pinxteren, Thomas Tuch, Kay Weinhold, Zongbo Shi, and Roy M. Harrison
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9515–9531, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9515-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9515-2024, 2024
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Different sources of airborne particles in the atmospheres of four European cities were distinguished by recognising their particle size distributions using a statistical procedure, positive matrix factorisation. The various sources responded differently to the changes in emissions associated with COVID-19 lockdowns, and the reasons are investigated. While traffic emissions generally decreased, particles formed from reactions of atmospheric gases decreased in some cities but increased in others.
Amy H. Peace, Ying Chen, George Jordan, Daniel G. Partridge, Florent Malavelle, Eliza Duncan, and Jim M. Haywood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9533–9553, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9533-2024, 2024
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Natural aerosols from volcanic eruptions can help us understand how anthropogenic aerosols modify climate. We use observations and model simulations of the 2014–2015 Holuhraun eruption plume to examine aerosol–cloud interactions in September 2014. We find a shift to clouds with smaller, more numerous cloud droplets in the first 2 weeks of the eruption. In the third week, the background meteorology and previous conditions experienced by air masses modulate the aerosol perturbation to clouds.
Hua Lu, Min Xie, Bingliang Zhuang, Danyang Ma, Bojun Liu, Yangzhihao Zhan, Tijian Wang, Shu Li, Mengmeng Li, and Kuanguang Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8963–8982, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8963-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8963-2024, 2024
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To identify cloud, aerosol, and planetary boundary layer (PBL) interactions from an air quality perspective, we summarized two pollution patterns characterized by denser liquid cloud and by obvious cloud radiation interaction (CRI). Numerical simulation experiments showed CRI could cause a 50 % reduction in aerosol radiation interaction (ARI) under a low-trough system. The results emphasized the nonnegligible role of CRI and its inhibition of ARI under wet and cloudy pollution synoptic patterns.
Zhouyang Zhang, Jiandong Wang, Jiaping Wang, Nicole Riemer, Chao Liu, Yuzhi Jin, Zeyuan Tian, Jing Cai, Yueyue Cheng, Ganzhen Chen, Bin Wang, Shuxiao Wang, and Aijun Ding
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1924, 2024
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Black carbon (BC) exerts notable warming effects. We use a particle-resolved model to investigate the long-term behavior of BC mixing state, revealing its compositions, coating thickness distribution, and optical properties all stabilize with characteristic time of less than one day. This study can effectively simplify the description of the BC mixing state, which facilitates the precise assessment of the optical properties of BC aerosols in global and chemical transport models.
Zhe Song, Ningning Yao, Lang Chen, Yuhai Sun, Boqiong Jiang, Pengfei Li, Daniel Rosenfeld, and Shaocai Yu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2263, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2263, 2024
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Our results with injected sea-salt aerosols for five open oceans show that the sea-salt aerosols with low injection amounts dominated the shortwave radiation mainly through the indirect effects. As indirect aerosol effects saturated with increasing injection rates, direct effects exceeded indirect effects. This implies that marine cloud brightening was best implemented in areas with extensive cloud cover, while the aerosol direct scattering effects remained dominant when clouds were scarce.
Yuzhi Jin, Jiandong Wang, David C. Wong, Chao Liu, Golam Sarwar, Kathleen M. Fahey, Shang Wu, Jiaping Wang, Jing Cai, Zeyuan Tian, Zhouyang Zhang, Jia Xing, Aijun Ding, and Shuxiao Wang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2372, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2372, 2024
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Black carbon (BC) affects climate and the environment, and its aging process alters its properties. Current models, like WRF-CMAQ, lack full account. We developed the WRF-CMAQ-BCG model to better represent BC aging by introducing Bare/Coated BC species and their conversion. Our findings show that BC mixing states have distinct spatiotemporal distribution characteristics, and BC wet deposition is dominated by Coated BC. Accounting for BC aging process improves aerosol optics simulation accuracy.
Emilie Fons, Ann Kristin Naumann, David Neubauer, Theresa Lang, and Ulrike Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8653–8675, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8653-2024, 2024
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Aerosols can modify the liquid water path (LWP) of stratocumulus and, thus, their radiative effect. We compare storm-resolving model and satellite data that disagree on the sign of LWP adjustments and diagnose this discrepancy with causal inference. We find that strong precipitation, the absence of wet scavenging, and cloud deepening under a weak inversion contribute to positive LWP adjustments to aerosols in the model, despite weak negative effects from cloud-top entrainment enhancement.
Muhammed Irfan, Thomas Kühn, Taina Yli-Juuti, Anton Laakso, Eemeli Holopainen, Douglas R. Worsnop, Annele Virtanen, and Harri Kokkola
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8489–8506, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8489-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8489-2024, 2024
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The study examines how the volatility of semi-volatile organic compounds affects secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation and climate. Our simulations show that uncertainties in these volatilities influence aerosol mass and climate impacts. Accurate representation of these compounds in climate models is crucial for predicting global climate patterns.
Hector Navarro-Barboza, Jordi Rovira, Vincenzo Obiso, Andrea Pozzer, Marta Via, Andres Alastuey, Xavier Querol, Noemi Perez, Marjan Savadkoohi, Gang Chen, Jesus Yus-Díez, Matic Ivancic, Martin Rigler, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Stergios Vratolis, Olga Zografou, Maria Gini, Benjamin Chazeau, Nicolas Marchand, Andre Prevot, Kaspar Dallenbach, Mikael Ehn, Krista Luoma, Tuukka Petäjä, Anna Tobler, Jaroslaw Necki, Minna Aurela, Hilkka Timonen, Jarkko Niemi, Olivier Favez, Jean-Eudes Petit, Jean-Philippe Putaud, Christoph Hueglin, Nicolas Pascal, Aurelien Chauvigné, Sebastien Conil, Marco Pandolfi, and Oriol Jorba
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2086, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2086, 2024
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Brown carbon (BrC) absorbs UV and visible light, affecting climate. Our study investigates BrC's imaginary refractive index (k ) using data from 12 European sites. Residential emissions are a major OA source in winter, while secondary organic aerosols (SOA) dominate in summer. We derived source-specific k values, enhancing model accuracy. This research improves understanding of BrC's climate role, emphasizing the need for source-specific constraints in atmospheric models.
Mingrui Ma, Jiachen Cao, Dan Tong, Bo Zheng, and Yu Zhao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1769, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1769, 2024
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We combined two global climate change pathways and three national emission control scenarios to analyze the future evolution of Nr deposition till 2060s in China with air quality modeling. We demonstrate China’s clean air and carbon neutrality policies would overcome the adverse effect of climate change and efficiently reduce Nr deposition. The outflow of Nr fluxes from mainland China to West Pacific would also be clearly reduced from continuous stringent emission controls.
Qianyi Huo, Zhicong Yin, Xiaoqing Ma, and Huijun Wang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1923, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1923, 2024
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The Mongolian cyclone, compared to the cold high-pressure system, caused more frequent and severe dust weather in North China during the spring seasons of 2015–2023. Different intensities of 500 hPa cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies, control near-surface meteorological conditions, leading to two dust weather types in North China. The common predictor for the two types of dust weather successfully captured 76.1 % of dust days and provided a dust signal two days in advance.
Alkiviadis Kalisoras, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Dimitris Akritidis, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Chaincy Kuo, Sophie Szopa, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, David Neubauer, Naga Oshima, Jane Mulcahy, Larry W. Horowitz, and Prodromos Zanis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7837–7872, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7837-2024, 2024
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Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a metric for estimating how human activities and natural agents change the energy flow into and out of the Earth’s climate system. We investigate the anthropogenic aerosol ERF, and we estimate the contribution of individual processes to the total ERF using simulations from Earth system models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our findings highlight that aerosol–cloud interactions drive ERF variability during the last 150 years.
Qianqian Song, Paul Ginoux, María Gonçalves Ageitos, Ron L. Miller, Vincenzo Obiso, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7421–7446, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7421-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7421-2024, 2024
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We implement and simulate the distribution of eight dust minerals in the GFDL AM4.0 model. We found that resolving the eight minerals reduces dust absorption compared to the homogeneous dust used in the standard GFDL AM4.0 model that assumes a globally uniform hematite content of 2.7 % by volume. Resolving dust mineralogy results in significant impacts on radiation, land surface temperature, surface winds, and precipitation over North Africa in summer.
Senyi Kong, Zheng Wang, and Lei Bi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6911–6935, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6911-2024, 2024
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The retrieval of refractive indices of dust aerosols from laboratory optical measurements is commonly done assuming spherical particles. This paper aims to investigate the uncertainties in the shortwave refractive indices and corresponding optical properties by considering non-spherical and inhomogeneous models for dust samples. The study emphasizes the significance of using non-spherical models for simulating dust aerosols.
Wenxuan Hua, Sijia Lou, Xin Huang, Lian Xue, Ke Ding, Zilin Wang, and Aijun Ding
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6787–6807, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6787-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6787-2024, 2024
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In this study, we diagnose uncertainties in carbon monoxide and organic carbon emissions from four inventories for seven major wildfire-prone regions. Uncertainties in vegetation classification methods, fire detection products, and cloud obscuration effects lead to bias in these biomass burning (BB) emission inventories. By comparing simulations with measurements, we provide certain inventory recommendations. Our study has implications for reducing uncertainties in emissions in further studies.
Léo Clauzel, Sandrine Anquetin, Christophe Lavaysse, Gilles Bergametti, Christel Bouet, Guillaume Siour, Rémy Lapere, Béatrice Marticorena, and Jennie Thomas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1604, 2024
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Solar energy production in West Africa is set to rise, needing accurate solar radiation estimates, which is affected by desert dust. This work analyses a March 2021 dust event using a modelling strategy incorporating desert dust. Results show that considering desert dust cut errors in solar radiation estimates by 75 % and reduces surface solar radiation by 18 %. This highlights the importance of incorporating dust aerosols into solar forecasting for better accuracy.
Chandrakala Bharali, Mary Barth, Rajesh Kumar, Sachin D. Ghude, Vinayak Sinha, and Baerbel Sinha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6635–6662, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6635-2024, 2024
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This study examines the role of atmospheric aerosols in winter fog over the Indo-Gangetic Plains of India using WRF-Chem. The increase in RH with aerosol–radiation feedback (ARF) is found to be important for fog formation as it promotes the growth of aerosols in the polluted environment. Aqueous-phase chemistry in the fog increases PM2.5 concentration, further affecting ARF. ARF and aqueous-phase chemistry affect the fog intensity and the timing of fog formation by ~1–2 h.
Wenxin Zhao, Yu Zhao, Yu Zheng, Dong Chen, Jinyuan Xin, Kaitao Li, Huizheng Che, Zhengqiang Li, Mingrui Ma, and Yun Hang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6593–6612, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6593-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6593-2024, 2024
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We evaluate the long-term (2000–2020) variabilities of aerosol absorption optical depth, black carbon emissions, and associated health risks in China with an integrated framework that combines multiple observations and modeling techniques. We demonstrate the remarkable emission abatement resulting from the implementation of national pollution controls and show how human activities affected the emissions with a spatiotemporal heterogeneity, thus supporting differentiated policy-making by region.
Peng Xian, Jeffrey S. Reid, Melanie Ades, Angela Benedetti, Peter R. Colarco, Arlindo da Silva, Tom F. Eck, Johannes Flemming, Edward J. Hyer, Zak Kipling, Samuel Rémy, Tsuyoshi Thomas Sekiyama, Taichu Tanaka, Keiya Yumimoto, and Jianglong Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6385–6411, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6385-2024, 2024
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The study compares and evaluates monthly AOD of four reanalyses (RA) and their consensus (i.e., ensemble mean). The basic verification characteristics of these RA versus both AERONET and MODIS retrievals are presented. The study discusses the strength of each RA and identifies regions where divergence and challenges are prominent. The RA consensus usually performs very well on a global scale in terms of how well it matches the observational data, making it a good choice for various applications.
Mariya Petrenko, Ralph Kahn, Mian Chin, Susanne E. Bauer, Tommi Bergman, Huisheng Bian, Gabriele Curci, Ben Johnson, Johannes Kaiser, Zak Kipling, Harri Kokkola, Xiaohong Liu, Keren Mezuman, Tero Mielonen, Gunnar Myhre, Xiaohua Pan, Anna Protonotariou, Samuel Remy, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Hailong Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Kai Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1487, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1487, 2024
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We compared smoke plume simulations from 11 global models to each other and to satellite smoke-amount observations, aimed at constraining smoke source strength. In regions where plumes are thick and background aerosol is low, models and satellites compare well. However, the input emission inventory tends to underestimate in many places, and particle property and loss-rate assumptions vary enormously among models, causing uncertainties that require systematic in-situ measurements to resolve.
Roger Teoh, Zebediah Engberg, Ulrich Schumann, Christiane Voigt, Marc Shapiro, Susanne Rohs, and Marc E. J. Stettler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6071–6093, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6071-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6071-2024, 2024
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The radiative forcing (RF) due to aviation contrails is comparable to that caused by CO2. We estimate that global contrail net RF in 2019 was 62.1 mW m−2. This is ~1/2 the previous best estimate for 2018. Contrail RF varies regionally due to differences in conditions required for persistent contrails. COVID-19 reduced contrail RF by 54% in 2020 relative to 2019. Globally, 2 % of all flights account for 80 % of the annual contrail energy forcing, suggesting a opportunity to mitigate contrail RF.
Haotian Zu, Biwu Chu, Yiqun Lu, Ling Liu, and Xiuhui Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5823–5835, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5823-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5823-2024, 2024
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The nucleation of iodic acid (HIO3) and iodous acid (HIO2) was proven to be critical in marine areas. However, HIO3–HIO2 nucleation cannot effectively derive the rapid nucleation in some polluted coasts. We find a significant enhancement of dimethylamine (DMA) on the HIO3–HIO2 nucleation in marine and polar regions with abundant DMA sources, which may establish reasonable connections between the HIO3–HIO2 nucleation and the rapid formation of new particles in polluted marine and polar regions.
Junghwa Lee, Patric Seifert, Tempei Hashino, Maximilian Maahn, Fabian Senf, and Oswald Knoth
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5737–5756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5737-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5737-2024, 2024
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Spectral bin model simulations of an idealized supercooled stratiform cloud were performed with the AMPS model for variable CCN and INP concentrations. We performed radar forward simulations with PAMTRA to transfer the simulations into radar observational space. The derived radar reflectivity factors were compared to observational studies of stratiform mixed-phase clouds. These studies report a similar response of the radar reflectivity factor to aerosol perturbations as we found in our study.
Basudev Swain, Marco Vountas, Aishwarya Singh, Nidhi L. Anchan, Adrien Deroubaix, Luca Lelli, Yanick Ziegler, Sachin S. Gunthe, Hartmut Bösch, and John P. Burrows
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5671–5693, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5671-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5671-2024, 2024
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Arctic amplification (AA) accelerates the warming of the central Arctic cryosphere and affects aerosol dynamics. Limited observations hinder a comprehensive analysis. This study uses AEROSNOW aerosol optical density (AOD) data and GEOS-Chem simulations to assess AOD variability. Discrepancies highlight the need for improved observational integration into models to refine our understanding of aerosol effects on cloud microphysics, ice nucleation, and radiative forcing under evolving AA.
Vincenzo Obiso, María Gonçalves Ageitos, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Jan P. Perlwitz, Gregory L. Schuster, Susanne E. Bauer, Claudia Di Biagio, Paola Formenti, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Ron L. Miller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5337–5367, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5337-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5337-2024, 2024
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We calculate the dust direct radiative effect (DRE) in an Earth system model accounting for regionally varying soil mineralogy through a new observationally constrained method. Linking dust absorption at solar wavelengths to the varying amount of specific minerals (i.e., iron oxides) improves the modeled range of dust single scattering albedo compared to observations and increases the global cooling by dust. Our results may contribute to improved estimates of the dust DRE and its climate impact.
Charlotte M. Beall, Po-Lun Ma, Matthew W. Christensen, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Adam Varble, Kentaroh Suzuki, and Takuro Michibata
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5287–5302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5287-2024, 2024
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Single-layer warm liquid clouds cover nearly one-third of the Earth's surface, and uncertainties regarding the impact of aerosols on their radiative properties pose a significant challenge to climate prediction. Here, we demonstrate how satellite observations can be used to constrain Earth system model estimates of the radiative forcing from the interactions of aerosols with clouds due to warm rain processes.
Xiaoli Wei, Qian Cui, Leiming Ma, Feng Zhang, Wenwen Li, and Peng Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5025–5045, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5025-2024, 2024
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A new aerosol-type classification algorithm has been proposed. It includes an optical database built by Mie scattering and a complex refractive index working as a baseline to identify different aerosol types. The new algorithm shows high accuracy and efficiency. Hence, a global map of aerosol types was generated to characterize aerosol types across the five continents. It will help improve the accuracy of aerosol inversion and determine the sources of aerosol pollution.
Hongyu Liu, Bo Zhang, Richard H. Moore, Luke D. Ziemba, Richard A. Ferrare, Hyundeok Choi, Armin Sorooshian, David Painemal, Hailong Wang, Michael A. Shook, Amy Jo Scarino, Johnathan W. Hair, Ewan C. Crosbie, Marta A. Fenn, Taylor J. Shingler, Chris A. Hostetler, Gao Chen, Mary M. Kleb, Gan Luo, Fangqun Yu, Jason L. Tackett, Mark A. Vaughan, Yongxiang Hu, Glenn S. Diskin, John B. Nowak, Joshua P. DiGangi, Yonghoon Choi, Christoph A. Keller, and Matthew S. Johnson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1127, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1127, 2024
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We use the GEOS-Chem model to simulate aerosols over the western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) during the winter and summer campaigns of ACTIVATE 2020. Model results are evaluated against in situ and remote sensing measurements from two aircraft as well as ground-based and satellite observations. The improved understanding of the aerosol life cycle, composition, transport pathways, and distribution has important implications for characterizing aerosol-cloud-meteorology interactions over the WNAO.
Zhiqiang Zhang, Ying Li, Haiyan Ran, Junling An, Yu Qu, Wei Zhou, Weiqi Xu, Weiwei Hu, Hongbin Xie, Zifa Wang, Yele Sun, and Manabu Shiraiwa
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4809–4826, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4809-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4809-2024, 2024
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Secondary organic aerosols (SOAs) can exist in liquid, semi-solid, or amorphous solid states, which are rarely accounted for in current chemical transport models. We predict the phase state of SOA particles over China and find that in northwestern China SOA particles are mostly highly viscous or glassy solid. Our results indicate that the particle phase state should be considered in SOA formation in chemical transport models for more accurate prediction of SOA mass concentrations.
Alejandro Baró Pérez, Michael S. Diamond, Frida A.-M. Bender, Abhay Devasthale, Matthias Schwarz, Julien Savre, Juha Tonttila, Harri Kokkola, Hyunho Lee, David Painemal, and Annica M. L. Ekman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4591–4610, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4591-2024, 2024
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We use a numerical model to study interactions between humid light-absorbing aerosol plumes, clouds, and radiation over the southeast Atlantic. We find that the warming produced by the aerosols reduces cloud cover, especially in highly polluted situations. Aerosol impacts on drizzle play a minor role. However, aerosol effects on cloud reflectivity and moisture-induced changes in cloud cover dominate the climatic response and lead to an overall cooling by the biomass burning plumes.
Danny M. Leung, Jasper F. Kok, Longlei Li, David M. Lawrence, Natalie M. Mahowald, Simone Tilmes, and Erik Kluzek
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1124, 2024
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This study derives a desert dust emission dataset for 1841–2000, by employing a combination of observed dust records from sedimentary cores as well as reanalyzed global dust cycle constraints. We evaluate the ability of global models to replicate the observed historical dust variability by using the emission dataset to force a historical simulation in an Earth system model. We show that prescribing our emissions forces the model to match better against observations than other mechanistic models.
Sampa Das, Peter R. Colarco, Huisheng Bian, and Santiago Gassó
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4421–4449, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4421-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4421-2024, 2024
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The smoke aerosols emitted from vegetation burning can alter the regional energy budget via multiple pathways. We utilized detailed observations from the NASA ORACLES airborne campaign based in Namibia during September 2016 to improve the representation of smoke aerosol properties and lifetimes in our GEOS Earth system model. The improved model simulations are for the first time able to capture the observed changes in the smoke absorption during long-range plume transport.
Cited articles
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Aquila, V., Garfinkel, C. I., Newman, P. A., Oman, L. D., and Waugh, D. W.: Modifications of the quasi-biennial oscillation by a geoengineering perturbation of the stratospheric aerosol layer, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1738–1744, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058818, 2014.
Åström, K. J. and Murray, R. M.: Analysis and Design of Feedback Systems, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, USA, 2008.
Bala, G., Caldeira, K., and Nemani, R.: Fast versus slow response in climate change: implications for the global hydrological cycle, Clim. Dynam., 35, 423–434, 2010.
Bouttes, N., Good, P., Gregory, J. M., and Lowe, J. A.: Nonlinearity of ocean heat uptake during warming and cooling in the FAMOUS climate model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 2409–2416, 2015.
Caldeira, K. and Myhrvold, N.: Projections of the pace of warming following an abrupt increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 034039, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034039, 2013.
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Short summary
Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a possible additional approach for managing risks of climate change, by reflecting some sunlight back to space. To project climate effects resulting from future choices regarding both greenhouse gas emissions and solar geoengineering, it is useful to have a computationally efficient "emulator" that approximates the behavior of more complex climate models. We present such an emulator here, and validate the underlying assumption of linearity.
Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a possible additional approach for managing risks of...
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